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At least 109 records · Page 6

Economics of Crop Rotations With and Without Carinata for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production in the SE United States

In 2019, the aviation sector in the United States emitted 255 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, i.e., about five percent of the total domestic CO 2 emissions from the energy sector. The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) derived from carinata (Brassica carinata) could reduce CO 2 emissions of the aviation sector in the United States. Therefore, it is important to estimate changes in farm economics with and without carinata for ascertaining its production feasibility. In this context, the current study first assesses a combination of 12 popular rotations of corn, cotton, peanut, and soybean with winter crops of winter wheat and carinata in South Georgia over 4 years. Then, the net present values (NPVs) of 292 feasible cropping systems over 4 years are calculated. Finally, this study develops a risk model for ascertaining the probability distributions of NPVs for selected cropping systems subject to uncertainties related to prices and yields of summer and winter crops. Carinata in the corn-corn-soybean rotation has the highest NPV ($\$$2,996/ha). The least risky rotation is cotton-cotton-peanut, with a 58.9% probability of a positive NPV. Carinata can decrease the risk level of crop rotations by 8.1%, only if a contract price of $\$$440.9/t is offered. Therefore, a risk averse, risk neutral, or risk acceptant farmer can potentially include carinata in the rotation. Overall, carinata would increase the profitability of farm operations and decrease risk in the SE United States, and therefore, a high likelihood exists, that farmers would adopt it for meeting the growing demand for SAF in the United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Life cycle analysis of dedicated energy crops for fuel production in the United States

Dedicated energy crops are promising feedstocks to make biofuels including jet fuels. This study applies life cycle analysis (LCA) to estimate direct well-to-wake (WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (g CO 2 e/MJ) for jet fuel derived from five energy crops-biomass sorghum, miscanthus, switchgrass, poplar, and willow-via Fischer-Tropsch-to-Jet (FTJ) and Ethanol-to-Jet (ETJ) pathways. The WTW boundary includes direct emissions from biomass production, fuel production, and fuel combustion. The R&D GREET model is expanded to conduct the LCA, using national average biomass yields and farming inputs from the 2023 Billion-Ton Study. In addition, this study estimates emissions from market-mediated effects, including induced land-use change, induced other crop (non-feedstock) production changes, and induced livestock production changes using global economic and emissions factor models. On a per-dry U.S. ton basis, cultivation and harvest emissions are lowest for willow (51,565 g CO 2 e) and highest for biomass sorghum (104,488 g CO 2 e). Per-acre results show similarly high emissions for sorghum and lowest values for poplar and willow. Direct WTW emissions are substantially lower for FTJ (biomass sorghum: 5.5; miscanthus: 10.3; switchgrass: 11.7; poplar: 11.9; and willow: 8.7 g CO 2 e/MJ) than ETJ (33.2; 33.8; 34.8; 36.2; and 31.7 g CO 2 e/MJ, respectively). When market-mediated emissions are included, miscanthus exhibits the lowest total emissions across energy crop pathways. Although results are sensitive to modeling assumptions, they indicate that high-yielding perennial and woody crops, particularly when planted on marginal land, could significantly reduce WTW emissions for bio-jet fuels by combining low direct emissions with soil carbon gains and favorable market-mediated effects.

Billion-Ton Study↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-SD1 Shatto Ditch Paired Cropland - Site 1 (Corn/Soy; No Cover Crops)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-SD1 Shatto Ditch Paired Cropland - Site 1 (Corn/Soy; No Cover Crops). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-SD1 Shatto Ditch Paired Cropland - Site 1 (Corn/Soy; No Cover Crops) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - US-SD1, located on mostly flat terrain with some gentle hills, is an actively managed farmland operated by working farmers following a conventional no-till corn–soybean rotation in the U.S. Midwest. US-SD1 is one of two paired working farm sites which are relatively close by; both are managed using similar conventional practices with the key difference being that the paired site (US-SD2) incorporates cover crops into its rotation, along with minor differentiating terrain and soil type, where US-SD2 is located on a gently sloped site with more sandy soils. This paired design enables direct site-to-site comparisons to assess the impacts of cover cropping on carbon, water, and energy fluxes.

Key, Kesondra [Indiana University - Bloomington]↗

Unbalancing Symbiotic Nitrogen Fixation: Can We Make Effectiveness More Effective?

One of the most critical uses of carbon fuels is in generating nitrogen fertilizer. Atmospheric dinitrogen is too stable to be used directly by plants, so plants need other chemical forms of nitrogen. Nitrogen fertilizer production uses ~4% of the world’s natural gas. Making N fertilizers leverages methane’s energy content by enabling additional energy to be captured into food and fiber through increased photosynthesis. Manufacturing fertilizer is essential—without it there would only be enough combined nitrogen to feed ~3 billion of the world’s ~7 billion people. How to alter this addiction is not obvious, but the best chance to secure substantial and sustainable amounts of future N might be through symbiotic nitrogen fixation (SNF). SNF describes mutualistic interactions where nitrogen-fixing bacteria provide fixed nitrogen to their plant hosts, freeing them from the need for nitrogen fertilizers. SNF already occurs on a large scale; "biological nitrogen” contributes about 5 Tg N/yr to American agriculture, a quarter of the nitrogen needed. Improving SNF and replacing inorganic fertilizers are both important goals in establishing sustainable and more energy-efficient farming. SNF has been used in agriculture for millennia, largely by using legumes like beans or alfalfa in mixed cropping systems. Legume SNF occurs in root nodules, organs that develop after a growing root is infected by bacteria called rhizobia. In the plant cells of a legume nodule, specialized forms of rhizobia fix nitrogen and can produce enough ammonia to supply the growing plant. The exchange of photosynthetically derived plant carbon compounds for nitrogen reduced by the bacteria is the engine that drives the symbiosis. Important details about the organization of development and metabolism in SNF remain to be determined, such as how plant and bacterial metabolism are coordinated as nitrogen is being fixed and what governs the overall level of nitrogen fixation. Most bacterial mutations that affect SNF completely block fixation (e.g. are Fix – ), providing a limited window into the feedback interactions that must be part of the process. We have investigated an unusual mutant of Sinorhizobium meliloti, a symbiotic partner of alfalfa, that fixes dinitrogen at a normal rate (i.e., it is Fix + ) but is not effective in supporting plant growth (i.e., it is ineffective or Eff – ). We have shown that the mutant has a specific mutation in the glnD gene, which codes for a protein that regulates the bacterial response to nitrogen stress, among other key pathways. A Fix + Eff – phenotype contains an unavoidable puzzle—how is it possible for the bacteria to fix nitrogen at a normal rate and without benefiting the nitrogen starved plant host? After eliminating other possibilities, we proposed that the bacteria synthesize a nitrogen-containing compound that the plant can’t use so that acquiring this compound does not relieve plant nitrogen stress. Extracts of nodules made by glnD mutant strains have high concentrations of pyruvate canaline oxime (PCO), a derivative of the plant defensive compound canaline, a toxic analog of ornithine, an amino acid. Many legumes produce canaline and the related arginine mimic canavanine. For reasons we do not yet understand, the mutation in glnD appears to trigger significant overproduction of canaline in a defense response that leads to substantial synthesis of PCO. We expected the bacteria to be able to use PCO, but we have not been able to grow S. meliloti on PCO under several conditions. PCO thus appears to be a metabolic dead end for both the plant and bacteria. We also examined bacterial catabolic pathways that degrade arginine and canavanine and showed that mutation of these did not alter the symbiosis in an obvious way. In related experiments to examine the metabolic development of root nodules, we carried out an ambitious experiment to simultaneously measure metabolites and protein changes during nodule maturation. For these experiments we used a related symbiotic interaction between S. medicae and Medicago truncatula. M. truncatula has a simpler genome than alfalfa so we could identify plant proteins based on predictions from the DNA sequence. Nodules formed on Medicago grow linearly, with the least mature tissues at the tip. Because development of nitrogen fixation is accompanied by the production of the pigmented plant oxygen carrier protein leghemoglobin, we were able to locate and manually separate the tip, transitional, and mature nitrogen-fixing regions from each other. Advances in proteomic and metabolomic techniques allowed us to analyze these tissues from a pool of as few as 10 nodules. We observed correlated transitions of various enzymes in the plant and bacterial proteomes from those characteristic of free-living metabolism to the microaerobic metabolism of the nitrogen-fixing tissues. The metabolome could not be separated into plant and bacterial domains but was consistent with this overall transition. A subsequent paper examined proteolysis in nodule bacteria. Protein turnover in mature regions of the nodule is significant. We were able to show complexes between various proteins and important proteases, using precipitation capture techniques to isolate the proteases and sensitive proteomic analysis to reveal the associated proteins.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The practice and economics of hybrid poplar biomass production for biofuels and bioproducts in the Pacific Northwest

Hybrid poplar demonstration-scale farms were managed in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and California to establish management practices, yields, harvesting methods, and the economics of biomass production. Yield during the 2-year establishment cycle averaged 3.5 dry Mg ha –1 year –1 increasing to 11.6 Mg ha –1 year –1 in the ensuing 3-year coppice cycle. Populus deltoides (Bartram ex Marsh.) × P. maximowiczii (Henry) varieties preformed best in Oregon during the coppice cycle with the best variety producing 18.1 Mg ha –1 year –1 , while P. ×generosa (Henry) varieties maximized yields in Washington at 22.1 Mg ha –1 year –1 . P. ×canadensis (Moench) varieties excelled in Idaho and California with upper yields of 13.6 Mg ha –1 year –1 and 12.9 Mg ha –1 year –1 , respectively. Stands were cut with a single-pass harvester 2 years after planting and a second time after 3 years of coppice growth; material capacity, limited by poor ground conditions, varied between 21.7 to 31.3 green Mg h –1 . Chemical composition averaged 1.87% inorganics, 7.74% extractives, 26.90% lignin, 38.07% glucan, 13.66% xylan, 1.61% galactan, 1.14% arabinan, and 2.76% mannan. Production costs (USD) projected over a 20-year rotation of six coppice cycles were $71.81 Mg –1 in Washington, $89.91 Mg –1 in Oregon, $98.76 Mg–1 in Idaho, and 179.07 Mg–1 in California. Here, land rental, establishment, crop care, harvest, transportation, and land restoration, respectively, accounted for 23%, 5%, 19%, 30%, 17%, and 6% of total feedstock cost. Farms were successfully restored to conditions existing before poplar conversion. In the absence of fertilization, increases in soil pH and decreases in nitrate-nitrogen, zinc, iron, and organic matter were consistently noted but could not be associated with poplar production alone.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Flooding and ecological restoration promote wetland microbial communities and soil functions on former cranberry farmland

Microbial communities are early responders to wetland degradation, and instrumental players in the reversal of this degradation. However, our understanding of soil microbial community structure and function throughout wetland development remains incomplete. We conducted a survey across cranberry farms, young retired farms, old retired farms, flooded former farms, ecologically restored former farms, and natural reference wetlands with no history of cranberry farming. We investigated the relationship between the microbial community and soil characteristics that restoration intends to maximize, such as soil organic matter, cation exchange capacity and denitrification potential. Among the five treatments considered, flooded and restored sites had the highest prokaryote and microeukaryote community similarity to natural wetlands. In contrast, young retired sites had similar communities to farms, and old retired sites failed to develop wetland microbial communities or functions. Canonical analysis of principal coordinates revealed that soil variables, in particular potassium base saturation, sodium, and denitrification potential, explained 45% of the variation in prokaryote communities and 44% of the variation in microeukaryote communities, segregating soil samples into two clouds in ordination space: farm, old retired and young retired sites on one side and restored, flooded, and natural sites on the other. Heat trees revealed possible prokaryotic ( Gemmatimonadetes ) and microeukaryotic ( Rhizaria ) indicators of wetland development, along with a drop in the dominance of Nucletmycea in restored sites, a class that includes suspected mycorrhizal symbionts of the cranberry crop. Flooded sites showed the strongest evidence of wetland development, with triple the soil organic matter accumulation, double the cation exchange capacity, and seventy times the denitrification potential compared to farms. However, given that flooding does not promote any of the watershed or habitat benefits as ecological restoration, we suggest that flooding can be used to stimulate beneficial microbial communities and soil functions during the restoration waiting period, or when restoration is not an option.

Rubin, Rachel L. (ORCID:0000000284326811)↗

Development of a field-deployable qPCR assay for real-time pest monitoring in algal cultivation systems

Outdoor cultivation is commonly used to produce algal biomass for a variety of bioproducts including food, feed, fuel, pharmaceuticals, and nutraceuticals. Outdoor cultivation ponds are highly susceptible to pest pressures that may lead to periods of low productivity or even entire loss of the algal crop. Consequently, there is a need for rapid, real-time tracking of pests for early intervention to mitigate crop loss. In this work, we describe the development of a field deployable, low-cost qPCR assay for detecting both known and novel pests of a farmed eukaryotic alga species, Nannochloropsis sp. We performed a proximity guided metagenome deconvolution approach (ProxiMeta™) to discover novel pests that temporally correspond to periods of reduced pond productivity. This approach provided high-quality metagenome assemblies that were used to design qPCR probes to detect specific pests of interest. The portable qPCR assay, designed to be deployed at remote field locations, enables low-cost surveillance with a rapid (2 h) turn-around time. Frequent sampling allows for early detection and prompts intervention strategies to remedy infected ponds to minimize crop loss. The qPCR assay was used to successfully detect a known predatory bacterium within the order Bdellovibrionales both in the lab and at a remote field location. Furthermore, we assembled the genome of two novel, site-specific pests in the Saprospiraceae family and successfully designed qPCR probes that differentially detected their presence in two different pond locations. Ultimately, this assay has the potential to monitor multiple pests simultaneously and tailor targets to match likely pest infections that differ across geographical locations, helping to mitigate crop loss on a large scale.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

AmeriFlux US-HWB USDA ARS Pasture Sytems and Watershed Management Research Unit- Hawbecker Site

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-HWB USDA ARS Pasture Sytems and Watershed Management Research Unit- Hawbecker Site. Site Description - Hawbecker farm is owned by Penn State University. The farming that took place was performed by their Farm Operations Division. The ground is rolling terrain, next to wooded areas, the Beef and Sheep Reasearch Farm, The University Airport, and other large fields maintained by Farm Operations. At the time of this collection period, the site housed another Meteorological Site, a Phenocam, and the GraceNet plots. Crop Rotation during period was 2 years Alfalfa, 1 year Corn for grain and 1 year Wheat.

Goslee, Sarah↗

AmeriFlux US-Mo1 LTAR CMRB Field 1 (CMRB ASP)

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Mo1 LTAR CMRB Field 1 (CMRB ASP). Site Description - Site is in a 36 ha agricultural research field near Centralia, MO on a broad, slightly sloped landscape. Currently farmed in a corn-soybean-wheat-hay rotation. Used for research since 1991; prior to that was managed for commercial crop production.

Schreiner-McGraw, Adam↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-HWB USDA ARS Pasture Sytems and Watershed Management Research Unit- Hawbecker Site

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-HWB USDA ARS Pasture Sytems and Watershed Management Research Unit- Hawbecker Site. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-HWB USDA ARS Pasture Sytems and Watershed Management Research Unit- Hawbecker Site produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Hawbecker farm is owned by Penn State University. The farming that took place was performed by their Farm Operations Division. The ground is rolling terrain, next to wooded areas, the Beef and Sheep Reasearch Farm, The University Airport, and other large fields maintained by Farm Operations. At the time of this collection period, the site housed another Meteorological Site, a Phenocam, and the GraceNet plots. Crop Rotation during period was 2 years Alfalfa, 1 year Corn for grain and 1 year Wheat.

Goslee, Sarah↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Mo1 LTAR CMRB Field 1 (CMRB ASP)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Mo1 LTAR CMRB Field 1 (CMRB ASP). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Mo1 LTAR CMRB Field 1 (CMRB ASP) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Site is in a 36 ha agricultural research field near Centralia, MO on a broad, slightly sloped landscape. Currently farmed in a corn-soybean-wheat-hay rotation. Used for research since 1991; prior to that was managed for commercial crop production.

Schreiner-McGraw, Adam↗

Impact of bioenergy feedstock carbon farming on sustainable aviation fuel viability in the United States

Biomass-derived sustainable aviation fuel holds significant potential for decarbonizing the aviation sector. Its long-term viability depends on crop choice, longevity of soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration, and the biomass-to-biojet fuel conversion efficiency. We explored the impact of fuel price and SOC value on viable biojet fuel production scale by integrating an agroecosystem model with a field-to-biojet fuel production process model for 1,4-dimethylcyclooctane (DMCO), a representative high-performance biojet fuel molecule, from Miscanthus, sorghum, and switchgrass. Assigning monetary value to SOC sequestration results in substantially different outcomes than an increased fuel selling price. If SOC accumulation is valued at $185/ton CO 2 , planting Miscanthus for conversion to DMCO would be economically cost-competitive across 66% of croplands across the continental United States (US) by 2050 if conventional jet fuel remains at $0.74/L (in 2020 US dollars). Cutting the SOC sequestration value in half reduces the viable area to 54% of cropland, and eliminating any payment for SOC shrinks the viable area to 16%. If future biojet fuel prices increase to $1.24/L-Jet A-equivalent, 48 to 58% of the total cultivated land in the United States could support a more diverse set of feedstocks including Miscanthus, sorghum, or switchgrass. Among these options, only 8–14% of the area would be suitable exclusively for Miscanthus cultivation. These findings highlight the intersection of natural solutions for carbon removal and the use of deep-rooted feedstocks for biofuels and biomanufacturing. The results underscore the need to establish clear and consistent values for SOC sequestration to enable the future bioeconomy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Enabling Sustainable Landscape Design for Continual Improvement of Operating Bioenergy Supply Systems

This unique and highly effective project catalyzed collaboration among government, university, and private sector partners through a multi-state research and technology transfer project designed to support continuous improvement of bioenergy feedstock supply systems. Conceived and built upon the foundation created by prior DOE investments in the Billion Ton Study, Sun Grant Regional Project, and many other feedstock production, harvest, storage and transportation studies, this project addressed seven tasks with more than 29 subtasks. All goals were met with key accomplishments being: (1) on-farm establishment of potential perennial plant mixtures that could not only become sustainable feedstock sources but also enhance soil health, (2) a reduction in potential wind and water erosion by improving corn stover harvest techniques and incorporating cover crops into current row-crop production systems, (3) reduced potential for surface and groundwater contamination while also increasing potential biodiversity and sustainability of Midwestern USA landscapes, and (4) development of site-specific land management, data visualization, and sustainability assessment tools. Twenty-two Case Studies highlighting accomplishments and lessons learned through this public-private partnership investment are incorporated into this final report. On-farm and replicated field plot studies were used to provide the real-world data needed to verify baseline assumptions for extensive feedstock logistic modeling and greenhouse gas (GHG) assessments needed to develop sustainable bioenergy and bio-product industries at national and international scales.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Field-scale dynamics of planting dates in the US Corn Belt from 2000 to 2020

Crop planting dates are a dynamic feature of agricultural systems that respond to short- and long-term climate signals, crop and cultivar selection, and technology changes. Planting date records are essential for yield gap analyses, accurate crop modeling, and tracking farmer adaptations to weather and climate change. Although planting dates have high variation at local scales due to heterogeneity in farm resources and decision-making, available long-term data on planting dates is largely restricted to aggregated regional statistics or, at best, satellite-derived datasets with limited spatiotemporal extent and at resolutions unable to distinguish individual fields (> 250 m). Here, we generated retrospective annual field-scale (30 m) planting date maps for both maize and soybeans spanning 2000-2020 across a 12 state region in the United States Corn Belt based on Landsat satellite data and a large ground sample of over 28,000 maize and soybean fields. Using training data from 2015-2020 for model selection, we found that planting date predictions improved with harmonic regression of Landsat data and additional annual weather covariates. The preferred random forests model approximately doubled performance compared to a null model based on state median planting dates, capturing 47% of field-level variation for maize (mean absolute error, MAE = 7.4 days) and 44% for soybeans (MAE = 7.5 days) against held-out ground truth test data for 2008-2014. We also evaluated the full 2000-2020 dataset with state agricultural statistics, finding strong agreement with median planting dates for maize (R 2 = 0.76, MAE = 4.4 days) and slightly lower agreement for soybeans (R 2 = 0.65, MAE = 5.4 days) when aggregated to the state level. We then used this new dataset to analyze environmental determinants of planting dates at a finer-scale than previously possible, controlling for unobserved variation at the sub-state district level. We found that during 2000-2020, each standard deviation increase in rainfall delayed planting by ~ 2.5 days, and fields with higher soil productivity ratings tended to be planted earlier. We did not find meaningful trends over the last two decades in planting dates for maize or soybeans, in contrast to trends towards earlier planting dates late last century and predicted for this period in climate adaptation studies. We hypothesize increases in early season rainfall may have inhibited these shifts towards earlier planting. Remotely sensed planting dates will be a useful tool for yield gap analyses, crop simulation modeling, and ongoing assessment of climate adaptation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Opportunities for bioenergy crops to support transitions from irrigated agriculture and conserve the U.S. High Plains Aquifer

This study investigates potential economic and groundwater driven transitions from irrigated maize production—the dominant irrigated cropping system in the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) region—to alternative crops such as sorghum and switchgrass, two common bioenergy feedstocks. Unsustainable groundwater extraction in the U.S. High Plains presents critical challenges including reduced irrigation capacities, diminished crop yields, lower land values, and escalating energy costs. Using a spatially explicit optimization framework combined with comprehensive economic and hydrogeological data, we evaluate optimal land-use strategies and irrigation system investments over a 30-year planning period. Results indicate significant regional variability in the future economic viability of irrigated agriculture, driven by differences in aquifer recharge rates, groundwater availability, and market conditions. Nebraska and parts of northern Texas can sustain irrigated maize profitability due to relatively favorable groundwater conditions and lower land rents, respectively. In contrast, many portions of Kansas and southern Texas are more likely to transition to dryland agriculture within two decades. Colorado and New Mexico show potential for significant adoption of switchgrass production as an alternative biomass-based energy crop. Overall, over the 30-year horizon, our model implies that approximately 23% of currently irrigated maize area across the HPA region may transition to dryland farming under business-as-usual conditions. This transition is complemented by a threefold increase in non-irrigated sorghum production, from 0.20 to 0.77 Mt yr−1, indicating that groundwater-driven shifts in agricultural production may support a larger regional base for bioenergy feedstocks. The study also reveals opportunities for producers to optimize economic returns and biomass production potential.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Fine resolution remote sensing spectra improves estimates of gross primary production of croplands

Gross primary production (GPP) is a fundamental measure of the terrestrial carbon cycle critical to our understanding of ecosystem function under the changing climate and land use. Remote sensing enables access to continuous spatial coverage, but remains challenged in heterogeneous croplands. Coarse resolution products, like MOD17A (500 m), may aggregate fragmented land cover types commonly found in heavily managed landscapes and misrepresent their respective contribution to carbon production. Consequently, this study demonstrates the capability of fine-resolution imagery (20-30 m) and available red-edge vegetation indices to characterize GPP across seven Midwest cropping systems. Four sites were established on a 22-year-old USDA Conservation Reserve Program (CRP); and the other three on land conventionally farmed with corn-soybean-wheat rotation (AGR). We compare in situ GPP estimates from eddy-covariance towers with ten satellite models: eight variants of the vegetation photosynthesis models (VPM), of which five include a red-edge vegetation index, as well as conventional products Landsat CONUS GPP (30 m) and MOD17A2H V6 (500 m). Daily and cumulative fine-resolution imagery integrated within VPM generally agreed with tower-based GPP in heterogeneous landscapes more than those from MODIS 500 m VPM or conventional GPP products from MOD17AH V6 or Landsat 8 CONUS. Here, replacing EVI2 with red-edge indices NDRE2, NDRE1, and MTCI in Sentinel 2 VPMs notably improved explanation of variance and estimation of cumulative GPP. While existing methods using MODIS- and Landsat-derived GPP are important baselines for regional and global studies, future research may benefit from the higher spatial, temporal, and radiometric resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future Farming: National Predictive Modeling Tool Initiative (NPMTI) [Slides]

The National Predictive Modeling Tool Initiative (NPMTI) is a multi-year program to develop research-based “tools” to forecast incidences of diseases and mycotoxins affecting U.S. crops. The overall goals of NPMTI are to: (1) ensure crop sustainability and crop quality; (2) provide climate change resilience; (3) improve soil health; (4) monitor pathogens and microbial diversity in the environment, but not limited to crop residues, soils, and air; (5) improve disease management thereby reducing yield losses; (6) increase precision of in-season disease management tactics; and (7) increase precision of pesticide use.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The role of social support on midwestern farmers’ willingness to grow perennial bioenergy crops

The lack of farmers' willingness to grow perennial bioenergy crops (PBCs) presents a critical barrier to the emergence of cellulosic biofuel production. The willingness relies on a complex network of economic, environmental, and social drivers, among which the influence of social factors (e.g., the influence of neighborhood, community, and communication) is less understood. This study addresses this knowledge gap via a survey analysis of midwestern farmers. The survey data are analyzed through ordinary least square regression and structural equation model, which together investigate the individual and interactive impacts of multiple factors on farmers' decisions to adopt PBCs. Based on a farm-scale analysis, six statistically significant predictors of farmer willingness to grow PBCs are identified: perception of PBCs' environment benefits, education level, willingness to take risks, familiarity with PBCs, portion of peers already growing PBCs, and support of biorefineries locating in the local community. Among these, the latter three predictors are social support variables. It is found that familiarity with the crops is the most significant predictor of willingness; familiarity is also an important intermediate variable that mediates the influence of many other predictors. In addition, peer adoption can both directly and indirectly affect willingness via its influence on familiarity. Furthermore, these findings suggest that it is a pressing need to improve farmers’ knowledge of PBCs to promote the adoption of such crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗