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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Low-Carbon District Heating: Performance Modeling of Hybrid Solar, Heat Pump, and Thermal Storage Systems for District Thermal Energy in the United States

District heating requires thermal energy in the temperature range of 40 degrees C - 120 degrees C. Typically, the thermal energy input for these systems has largely been met through fossil energy. However, the temperature range is low enough that it presents an opportunity for low-carbon technologies such as solar thermal and electrified thermal generators like heat pumps to decarbonize the heat generation. In this paper, a heat pump model was applied to estimate the performance and economics of a real-world low-carbon district heating substation. This system is comprised of a flat plate solar collector field paired with a mechanical vapor compression heat pump and hot water thermal storage, augmented by gas-fired boilers. Plant data was used to tune the model and estimate the system's benefits in terms of both standard financial metrics (IRR and payback), and environmental metrics, including avoided CO2 emissions. The model is subsequently employed to estimate the technical and economic potential of solar + heat pump + ther-mal storage hybrid systems as retrofits for district heating systems in eight US Markets.

district heating↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the Financial Impacts of Electric Vehicles on Utility Ratepayers and Shareholders [Slides]

Widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption is critical for meeting economy-wide decarbonization goals and, as a result, states are considering enabling policies and rate designs to accelerate EV deployment. EVs can provide possible financial upside to electric utilities and ratepayers in several ways. For example, from the utility perspective, EVs could drive increased electricity sales and new earnings opportunities through increased capital investments. From the ratepayer perspective, increased electric loads from EVs could reduce average all-in retail rates. The degree to which there are net benefits or costs to shareholders and/or ratepayers depends on how EVs are integrated and managed through enabling grid investments and charging strategies. Using Berkeley Lab’s Financial Impacts of Distributed Energy Resources (FINDER) model that mimics the electric utility investment planning and ratemaking processes, we estimate the utility earnings and customer rate impacts of EVs using a bookend approach of “managed” (i.e., best case) and “mismanaged” (i.e., worst case) charging strategies for a generic summer-peaking, investor-owned, and vertically integrated utility. The analysis also examines the sensitivity of results to different assumptions of EV deployment characteristics, EV impacts on retail electricity sales, incremental distribution system costs, EV charging location, and utility EV enablement costs (i.e., utility costs to invest in EV charging, controls, and communication to deliver and administer EV programs). The results are intended to inform EV policies and deployment strategies that maximize utility system benefits and minimize ratepayer costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Oil price states and drivers: An analysis of the second-month spot-futures price differential

Oil remains a dominant component of global energy use, and its price, characterized by frequent changes and an ever-present potential for large swings, continues to be a focus of industry participants, policymakers and analysts attention. Here, this study examines the behavior of future spot oil prices using a continuous-time hidden Markov model (HMM) and daily price data spanning years 2007 to 2024. We identify six states in the second-month WTI spot-futures price differential and assess the roles of eleven futures price, quantity, financial market, and geopolitical/volatility variables in each state. The model yields several insights into the workings of the oil market and the relative roles of these drivers. We find support for several theoretical and empirical findings in the oil market literature, including the role of inventory, volatility/risk, and market responses to contango/backwardation in futures markets. A novel finding is that “normal contango” conditions represent a significant portion of next-day states in our in-sample data. Under the most volatile normal contango state, many of the oil market drivers differ markedly in coefficient signs and magnitudes from those in other states. The resulting model also performed well out-of-sample and would, in addition to understanding the impact of market drivers, be useful for short-term forecasting. Overall, the findings highlight the highly non-linear, regime-dependent interactions of the oil price and its drivers, emphasizing the importance of detailed information to market stakeholders.

Oladosu, Gbadebo A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling and Analysis of Clean Energy and Storage Technologies (CRADA Final Report, Project 1)

The goal of this project is to provide Southern Company Services, Inc. ("Participant") with custom scripts that can be used to create an average PV energy production profile, calculate lifetime energy value, calculate capacity value, and calculate the resultant financial metrics considering those value streams. Secondly, a fuel-cell model will be added to the public version of System Advisor Model (SAM). This standalone technology will incorporate PV and battery storage, allowing the participant to model the interaction of these three technologies. By adding this capability to a public version of SAM, a broad audience will be able to consider the system performance and financial benefits of installing a fuel cell as a baseline generator with PV. Thirdly, automated dispatch algorithms will be developed and added to SAM. These algorithms will enable Southern Company to dispatch a DC-connected front-of-the-meter battery system while considering price signals and PV clipping behavior. By adding these capabilities to a public version of SAM, users will be able to consider more complex and realistic ways of dispatching a battery system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Roadmap for a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge

This document is a roadmap for building an interconnected model of the physical processes that produce a lightning discharge, and its observable optical and radio signals. We call this a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge, recognizing that significant effort and coordination of human and financial resources is required to realize the capability. The roadmap serves to outline the coordination of resources necessary to enable stitching together existing knowledge and model components to make a lightning prediction, and to test these predictions with observations. Such a capability does not currently exist. The roadmap is motivated not only by a spirit of scientific inquiry, but by practical challenges faced by US Federal and societal stakeholders. Advancements in lightning observations have outpaced our tests of integrated understanding, leaving many stakeholders unsure how to design their missions to properly detect and discriminate lightning, and unsure how to apply the sometimes-disagreeing lightning signals from diverse instruments. The time is right to connect existing theories and models to support stakeholders in understanding the signals they observe, for needs as diverse as climate monitoring, national security, weather forecasting, public safety, and protection of natural and built environments. The roadmap’s two main technical sections describe the components of a linked physical model, followed by a description of models of lightning signals and sensors that are driven by outputs from the physical model. The goal is to predict the time-varying physical properties of lightning that are self-consistent with the thunderstorm’s structure and dynamics. These lightning signals then propagate through the storm, with realistic dispersion and attenuation, to receivers on the ground or in space. At a high level, the model begins with weather (cloud) model output, including explicit prediction of the electrification of cloud particles. The cloud’s electrical structure drives a model of lightning physics, from initiation, through channel development, and discharges along those channels. Key lightning parameters, such as the temperature and currents in the channel, and their space and time distribution, are then used to produce optical and electromagnetic signal sources that propagate to modeled receivers. This architecture therefore generates a dataset suitable for comparison to existing and envisioned observing systems. The need for additional measurements and field campaigns to support model development is described. In each model sub-component, inputs, outputs, uncertainties, evaluation methods, and next steps are summarized, interleaved with references to the scientific literature. Identifying boundaries between the model sub-components aids in segmenting an integrated, complex model into practical work packages and system sub-components, allowing a diverse team to contribute and maintain the system. We estimate that at least five years of effort and a $\$$10M initial investment is necessary to make a significant step forward. Mechanisms to facilitate community coordination, including annual workshops and open-source code repositories, are described.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards an open model intercomparison platform for integrated assessment models scenarios

The majority of scenarios in the IPCC database are generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and come from model intercomparison projects. However, the way in which the current model intercomparison projects are organized is not open to all IAM teams worldwide. Here we propose a transparent and inclusive platform that is open to anyone with an IAM regarding protocols development, scenario submissions and results evaluation. We discuss the challenges of this approach, particularly human resources and financial support. Here, we identify diversity in the level of model capability and quality of model output as possibly critical issues. Despite such challenges, the IAM community and its scientific activities can improve and benefit from the proposed platform, ultimately contributing to better climate policymaking.

IAM↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of high concentration photovoltaics (HCPV) power plants in the US Southwest: Economic assessment and sensitivity analysis

High concentration photovoltaic (HCPV) technologies offer several advantages over typical PV systems. In this study, a detailed economic assessment and sensitivity analysis of deploying HCPV plants in the US southwest is performed. To do this, a 20 MWdc HCPV power plant is designed using the System Advisor Model (SAM) and is evaluated from both technical and financial aspects. The sensitivity analysis shows that reducing the installed cost per capacity of the HCPV system can significantly improve the economics and reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and levelized power purchase agreement (LPPA). Also, providing proper incentives including both investment tax credits (ITC) and production tax credit (PTC), loan debt ratio, and interest rate are among the most influential parameters. The analysis shows that with the 30% ITC, the LCOE, and LPPA of the designed HCPV projects are between $65.4/MWh and $69.3/MWh and between $71.0/MWh and $75.2/MWh, respectively. The estimated LCOE and LPPA values are almost 50% higher than the utility-scale PV projects. If proper funding is provided to continue the support of the HCPV system, they would become more economical and competitive with PV plants. Federal and state government policies must also be established to advocate HCPV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

EV Retail Rate Design 101

Electric vehicle (EV) adoption has increased significantly over the past several years. More than 640,000 light-duty plug-in EVs were sold in the US in 2021, which was more than twice the number sold in 2020. Driven by existing state and federal financial incentives as well as increased choice in electric models, EVs are popular among car buyers and now account for more than 1-in-10 of all light- duty vehicles sold in the US. At the state-level, total California EV sales recently passed one million, while New York, Washington, and Florida each have more than 100,000 total EVs on the road.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Economic Risk-Informed Maintenance Planning and Asset Management (Final Report)

The proposed work will provide a holistic framework for cost-minimizing risk-informed maintenance planning, including inspection, in light water reactors (LWRs). Specifically, we develop a two-tier framework that (a) coarsely minimizes the total maintenance cost during the remaining normal operating cycle of the plant prior to the next scheduled outage (long-term), subject to safety requirements, and (b) uses the outputs of the first model to develop a secondary optimization model to finely schedule maintenance activities to maximize the financial impact of these activities in the next week (short-term).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Photovoltaic Deployment Scenarios toward Global Decarbonization: Role of Disruptive Technologies

To totally decarbonize global electrical systems using photovoltaics (PVs) in the 2050–2060 decade, the world would need to install 63.4 TW of PV. This article models and explores how a PV manufacturing ramp‐up trajectory toward this goal can be achieved while assuming that investors continue to make financially rational decisions avoiding stranded production assets and therefore protecting their return on investment. The model effectively exploits experience curve benefits in both the scaling of the manufacturing process and continued progress in product design technologies. The scale‐up challenge is amplified because trajectories that achieve this goal require an unprecedented ramp‐up of production capacity over just two decades, followed by relatively modest demand to maintain the installed base and support continued population growth. It is demonstrated that sustainable ramp‐up of manufacturing is indeed possible and shown that the deployment of the requisite manufacturing capacity can be accelerated and accomplished at lower total capital cost by the introduction of disruptive technologies that have lower capital intensity, embedded energy, or higher efficiency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generation of Data-Driven Expected Energy Models for Photovoltaic Systems

Although unique expected energy models can be generated for a given photovoltaic (PV) site, a standardized model is also needed to facilitate performance comparisons across fleets. Current standardized expected energy models for PV work well with sparse data, but they have demonstrated significant over-estimations, which impacts accurate diagnoses of field operations and maintenance issues. This research addresses this issue by using machine learning to develop a data-driven expected energy model that can more accurately generate inferences for energy production of PV systems. Irradiance and system capacity information was used from 172 sites across the United States to train a series of models using Lasso linear regression. The trained models generally perform better than the commonly used expected energy model from international standard (IEC 61724-1), with the two highest performing models ranging in model complexity from a third-order polynomial with 10 parameters (Radj2 = 0.994) to a simpler, second-order polynomial with 4 parameters (Radj2=0.993), the latter of which is subject to further evaluation. Subsequently, the trained models provide a more robust basis for identifying potential energy anomalies for operations and maintenance activities as well as informing planning-related financial assessments. We conclude with directions for future research, such as using splines to improve model continuity and better capture systems with low (≤1000 kW DC) capacity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deferred Payment Loans for Energy Efficiency: Case Study of a Low- and Moderate-Income Home Improvement Financing Model and Potential Application to Energy Efficiency Projects

Energy efficiency can provide important benefits for low- and moderate-income households such as lower utility bills and healthier, more comfortable homes, but the upfront costs of efficiency improvements are often a barrier. Extending financing to these households can help overcome this barrier but presents its own challenges, including the financial burden of monthly payments and the risk of incurring the repercussions of nonpayment. The deferred payment loan model can give low- and moderate-income households access to energy efficiency without the financial burden of monthly payments while mitigating the risk of nonpayment. From a program sponsor perspective, when grant funds are limited or unavailable, the model provides certain advantages of both grants and financing. Like a grant, target recipients have minimal risk, but like a loan, funds can serve multiple participants since the funding can be revolved. Organizations in several parts of the country have employed the model to provide safe, healthy homes by paying for home repair and home improvement. This case study provides a detailed overview of the deferred payment loan program for home improvements known as the Home Repair Program run by the Opportunity Council, a Community Action Agency (CAA) serving three counties in Washington State. This case study also considers two other CAA-administered deferred payment loan programs – one in Wisconsin and another in Michigan.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stand-Alone and Hybrid Electric Thermal Energy Storage in the System Advisor Model

This project developed stand-alone electric-thermal energy storage (ETES), stand-alone pumped thermal energy storage (PTES), and hybrid molten-salt power tower (MSPT)-ETES performance and dispatch optimization techno-economic models. The models are available to the public through the System Advisor Model (SAM) software, scripting, and as open-source code. We compared results of the dispatch model to PLEXOS dispatch of a similar generator using the same initial grid pricing signal and found our dispatch model performed well, but closer agreement between the models was limited by the inherent differences between price-taker and unit commitment models. Nevertheless, the price-taker models developed in this project are useful to analyze proposed ETES and PTES technologies because they provide more detailed system and component models, solve several orders of magnitude faster, and are available as free open-source software. The model results represent the most optimistic returns considering grid arbitrage from the input electricity pricing, so the financial results can be applied as a feasibility stage-gate. We also submitted a journal draft paper that describes the ETES dispatch model methodology and demonstrates model functionality. An accepted journal article will serve as peer-reviewed documentation for the models, along with the open-source code, SAM help-menu content, and eventually this final project report.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

TEAL

TEAL is a financial performance calculator plugin for the RAVEN code, framework, resolving around the computation of Net Present Value and associated financial metrics. TEAL can make use of inflation rates, taxation, escalation factors, capital expenditure economy of scale scaling factors. The unique feature of TEAL is the capability to be linked with RAVEN external models and build corresponding cash flows using the variables computed by those external models. In addition to be able to use the capability to generate cash flows derived from complex physical models generated by RAVEN, another distinctive feature of TEAL is the capability to provide financial risk/probabilistic metrics that can empower RAVEN to perform optimization/analysis driven by financial risk augmentations. Optimization, robust optimization, parametric studies, large parallel simulations, sensitivity analysis, data mining, etc. are just some of the capabilities that can be leveraged.

Alfonsi, Andrea↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydropower and environmental flow management: System-level trade-offs at Glen Canyon Dam

The research focuses on the Colorado River Basin, specifically examining the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) and its influence on surrounding aquatic ecosystems. This area is crucial due to its role in hydropower production and its impact on downstream environments, including the Grand Canyon National Park. This study explores the integration of environmental factors into hydro dispatch modeling at GCD to tackle ecological challenges posed by the invasive smallmouth bass (SMB). Utilizing the GTMax SL and SERM models, the research assesses the effects of SMB control experiments on hydropower generation, economic value, and grid stability. The study examines the financial and economic impacts of bypass flows designed to release colder water to prevent SMB spawning, which can significantly reduce hydropower output and increase costs. The research identifies that declining reservoir levels and rising water temperatures in Lake Powell have facilitated SMB spawning, posing a threat to native fish populations like the endangered humpback chub. The findings highlight the importance of adaptive management strategies to balance ecological preservation with hydropower generation amid long-term weather-related challenges. The study underscores the need for comprehensive assessments of flow options to prevent SMB establishment below GCD, considering the broader implications for sediment dynamics and ecological interactions.

Ecological impact assessment↗