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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Satellite Observations of the Tropical Terrestrial Carbon Balance and Interactions With the Water Cycle During the 21st Century

A constellation of satellites are now in orbit providing information about terrestrial carbon and water storage and fluxes. These combined observations show that the tropical biosphere has changed significantly in the last two decades from the combined effects of climate variability and land use. Large areas of forest have been cleared in both wet and dry forests, increasing the source of carbon to the atmosphere. Concomitantly, tropical fire emissions have declined, at least until 2016, from changes in land-use practices and rainfall, increasing the net carbon sink. Measurements of carbon stocks and fluxes from disturbance and recovery and of vegetation photosynthesis show significant regional variability of net biosphere exchange (NBE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across the tropics and are tied to seasonal and interannual changes in water fluxes and storage. Comparison of satellite based estimates of evapotranspiration (ET), photosynthesis, and the deuterium content of water vapor with patterns of total water storage and rainfall demonstrate the presence of vegetation-atmosphere interactions and feedback mechanisms across tropical forests. However, these observations of stocks, fluxes and inferred interactions between them do not point unambiguously to either positive or negative feedbacks in carbon and water exchanges. These ambiguities highlight the need for assimilation of these new measurements with Earth System models for a consistent assessment of process interactions, along with focused field campaigns that integrate ground, aircraft and satellite measurements, to quantify the controlling carbon and water processes and their feedback mechanisms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Project report for year 1

In the first year of the project, we developed a fire event tracking system using active fire detections recorded by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). We employed this algorithm to track all large fires that occurred in California from 2013 to 2020, and created a retrospective Fire Event Data Suite (FEDS) that contains the vector shapes of fire perimeters, active fire fronts, and the locations and fire radiative powers for each fire pixel at 12-hour temporal resolution for each fire event. Using the 2020 Creek Fire as a test bed, we also delineated hourly fire perimeters by combining the FEDS data with the hourly rates of spread derived from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) fire data. This dataset will form the basis of the near-real-time hourly fire emissions product that we plan to develop at years 2 and 3 of the project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interactions between land use, fires, and dust as drivers of global climate change (Final Technical Report)

This award to UC Irvine and Cornell University led to the publication of 18 papers, three of which are highly cited. According to ISI Web of Science, the body of work from this grant has been cited over 476 times by May 2025. Several additional publications remain in review. This grant contributed to several significant science advances, including an improved understanding of the influence of fire aerosols on global photosynthesis (Xu et al., 2021), dust-driven teleconnections between Africa and South America (Li et al., 2021), the role of fire aerosols in triggering phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic (Ardyna et al., 2022), and wildfire responses to heat waves (Li et al., in review). Several other studies are being written up for publication, and will acknowledge funding support. These efforts include an analysis in which the magnitude of tropical fire emissions from land use change is constrained by comparing E3SMv3 simulations with atmospheric observations. This work has revealed that carbon cycle model estimates of land use change may considerably overestimate the global tropical deforestation flux. The project also contributed to several technical advances, including a new process-based and scale-aware desert dust emission scheme for global climate models (Leung et al., 2023), an improved representation of dust and its influence on radiation in E3SM (Feng et al., 2022), an improved representation of the dust parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (Li et al., 2022), and an improved coupling of wildfires with atmospheric chemistry in E3SM v3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Sunphotometer network for monitoring aerosol properties in the Brazilian Amazon

Satellite platforms have provided a methodology for regional and global remote sensing of aerosols. New systems will significantly improve that capability during the EOS era; however, the voluminous 20 year record of satellite data has produced only regional snapshots of aerosol loading and have not yielded a data base of the optical properties of those aerosols which are fundamental to our understanding of their influence on climate change. The prospect of fully understanding the properties of the aerosols with respect to climate change is small without validation and augmentation by ancillary ground based observations. Sun photometry was demonstrated to be an effective tool for ground based measurements of aerosol optical properties from fire emissions. Newer technology has expanded routine sun photometer measurements to spectral observations of solar aureole and almucantar allowing retrievals of size distribution, scattering phase function, and refractive index. A series of such observations were made in Brazil's Amazon basin from a network of six simultaneously recording instruments deployed in Sep. 1992. The instruments were located in areas removed from local aerosol sources such that sites are representative of regional aerosol conditions. The overall network was designed to cover the counter clockwise tropospheric circulation of the Amazon Basin. Spectral measurements of sun, aureole and sky data for retrieval of aerosol optical thickness, particle size distribution, and scattering phase function as well as measurements of precipitable water were made during noncloudy conditions.

Holben, Brent N.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Flame Radiation, Structure, and Scalar Properties in Microgravity Laminar Fires

Results from microgravity combustion experiments conducted in the Zero Gravity Research Facility (ZGF) 5.18 second drop facility are reported. The results quantify flame radiation, structure, and scalar properties during the early phase of a microgravity fire. Emission mid-infrared spectroscopy measurements have been completed to quantitatively determine the flame temperature, water and carbon dioxide vapor concentrations, radiative emissive power, and soot concentrations in microgravity laminar methane/air, ethylene/nitrogen/air and ethylene/air jet flames. The measured peak mole fractions for water vapor and carbon dioxide are found to be in agreement with state relationship predictions for hydrocarbon/air combustion. The ethylene/air laminar flame conditions are similar to previously reported results including those from the flight project, Laminar Soot Processes (LSP). Soot concentrations and gas temperatures are in reasonable agreement with similar results available in the literature. However, soot concentrations and flame structure dramatically change in long-duration microgravity laminar diffusion flames as demonstrated in this report.

Feikema, Douglas↗
NASA NTRS2018

Seasonal and Interannual Assessment of Cloud Cover and Atmospheric Constituents Across the Amazon (2000 - 2015): Insights for Remote Sensing and Climate Analysis

The quantitative assessment of cloud cover and atmospheric constituents improves our ability to exploit the climate feedback into the Amazon basin. In the 21st century, three droughts have already occurred in the Amazonia (e.g. 2005, 2010, 2015), inducing regional changes in the seasonal patterns of atmospheric constituents. In addition to climate, the atmospheric dynamic and attenuation properties are long-term challenges for satellite-based remote sensing of this ecosystem: high cloudiness, abundant water vapor content and biomass burning season. Therefore, while climatology analysis supports the understanding of atmospheric variability and trends, it also offers valuable insights for remote sensing applications. In this study, we evaluate the seasonal and interannual variability of cloud cover and atmospheric constituents (aerosol loading, water vapor and ozone content) over the Amazon basin, with focus on both climate analysis and remote sensing implications. We take the advantage of new atmosphere daily products at 1 km resolution derived from Multi-Angle Implementation for Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm developed for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. An intercomparison of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and MAIAC aerosol optical depth (AOD) and columnar water vapor (CWV) showed quantitative information with a correlation coefficient higher than 0.81. Our results show distinct regional patterns of cloud cover across the Amazon basin: northwestern region presets a persistent cloud cover (> 80%) throughout the year, while low cloud cover (0-20%) occurs in the southern Amazon during the dry season. The cloud-free period in the southern Amazon is followed by an increase in the atmospheric burden due to fire emissions. Our results reveal that AOD records are changing in terms of area and intensity. During the 2005 and 2010 droughts, the positive AOD anomalies (δ > 0.1) occurred over 39.03% (240.3 million ha) and 27.14% (165.99 million ha) of total basin in the SON season, respectively. In contrast, the recent 2015 drought occurred towards the end of year (October through December) and these anomalies were observed over 23.72% (145 million ha) affecting areas in the central and eastern Amazon unlike previous droughts. The water vapor presents high concentration values (4.0-5.0 g/sq.cm) in the wet season (DJF), while we observed a strong spatial gradient from northwestern to southeastern of the basin during the dry season. In addition, we also found a positive trend of water vapor content ( ∼0.3 g/sq.cm) between 2000 and 2015. The total ozone typically varies between 220 and 270 DU, and it has a seasonal change of ∼25-35 DU from wet season to dry season caused by large emissions of ozone precursors and long-range transport. Finally, while this study contributes to climatological analysis of atmospheric constituents, the remote sensing users can also understand the regional constraints caused by atmospheric attenuation, such as high aerosol loading and cloud obstacles for surface observations.

ozone↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of CO Transport from Australia Fires and Its Impact to Ozone, Water Vapor and Clouds Using CrIS Single-Field-of-View Sounder Products and Other Remote Sensing and MERRA-2 Reanalysis Data

Australia’s unprecedented fire disasters at the end of 2019 to early 2020 emitted huge amounts of carbon monoxide (CO) and fire aerosol particles, and the long-range transport of the smoke plumes poses great impact to climate change, such as altering the Antarctic ozone (O3) hole. Spaceborne observations from satellites have been proven successful in monitoring CO from wildfires in the past decade and can be used to examine the associated CO transport. The primary remote sensing data used in this study is the Single Field of View (SFOV) Sounder Atmospheric Product (SiFSAP) derived from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) on SNPP, a new product that will be generated at NASA and released to the public in a few months. SiFSAP has a high spatial resolution of ~14 km and includes atmospheric profiles of temperature, water vapor, CO, O3, as well as cloud products, and as the SiFSAP algorithm performs both day- and night-time retrievals, it provides an additional observation for night-time in comparison to the day-time-only solar polar satellite instruments such as MOPPIT, OMPS, and TROPOMI. Most recent significant improvements in the quality of this product plus its good spatial resolution (better than most global weather and climate models) enable us to conduct process-oriented analysis of CO transport, and the variation of water vapor, O3 and clouds (optical depth, effective radius and cloud height) within and around the fire plumes. The wind fields from MERRA-2 reanalysis will be used to help characterize the transport. Other remote sensing data, such as CO from AIRS, MOPPIT and TROPOMI, O3 from OMPS and TROPOMI, as well as the UV aerosol index from OMI and OMPS, will be used and compared with SiFSAP sounder products. Cross-validation of CO and O3 from these different sensors with the corresponding MERRA-2 products will also be carried out. Along the plume transport path, some enhancement of O3 and correlation between fire aerosol, cloud optical depth and water vapor have been found but need further investigation. Using the transport of fire plumes over the Southern Pacific Ocean as a unique testbed, this study will demonstrate the trace species monitoring capability of current satellite observations, in particular, for CO and O3, and hopefully, it will provide some insight on the impacts on fire emissions on air quality and climate.

Xiaozhen (Shawn) Xiong↗
NASA NTRS2024

Land Cover Change Analysis and Spatial Variations in Southeast Asian Nations: Insights on Spatial Scale Dynamics

Land cover type is a fundamental aspect of studies using remote sensing for environmental analysis such as monitoring deforestation, quantifying wildland fire emissions, and more. There are many land cover products available for varying time periods and spatial resolutions, each with different land cover class definitions and number of land cover classes. These differences yield inherent variation in land cover estimates. In this study, we explore the spatial and areal variation between two major datasets for their commonly available time of 2018 to 2022 (MODIS 500m Land Cover and Esri Sentinel-2 10m land cover) in the continental Southeast Asia countries of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. To enable comparison, we resampled the datasets and reclassified the land cover classes to a common scheme. Major disagreement was detected between Esri and MODIS, especially for the wetlands/flooded vegetation class in which only 3.6% of pixels were in agreement. In addition to quantifying variation between the datasets, we quantify land cover change at the decadal scale of 2001, 2011, and 2021 for each country and identified province-level hotspots of land cover change. Cambodia experienced the highest rate of land cover change with 67.8% of total land area changed, followed by Vietnam (58.6%), Laos (50.2%), Myanmar (46.9%), and Thailand (46.3%). The highest rate of land cover change was detected in Odtar Mean Chey, Cambodia, which had large swaths of forest area cleared for agricultural production, river damming, and more. Ultimately, many areas in the region experienced forest clearing for crop production (i.e. rice) which appeared to be classified as wetland in the MODIS product, and crop in the Esri product. Myanmar was the only country which did not experience net decline in forest area over the 2001 to 2021 time period.

Land Cover Change↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Wildfires on Solar Resource Availability in California in a Changing Climate

Wildfires can emit large amounts of atmospheric particulate matters and influence not only air quality but also availability of photovoltaic (PV) generation due to scattering and absorption of solar radiation. Under anthropogenic changing climate, wildfire activity is projected to increase over western North America due to drier and warmer climate, implying increasing impact on solar resource and larger uncertainty in solar generation especially in regions with faster PV penetration. This study focuses on quantifying the impact of wildfires on aerosol optical depth (AOD) and thus solar resource over California using National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This assessment includes historical analysis and estimation of solar resource under wildfire scenarios (2020 wildfire and an enhanced wildfire scenario based on 2020 wildfires). Historical analysis for the period of July-October 2019/2020 (low/high fire activity period) shows that the averaged global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are reduced by about 30 and 90 W m-2 (5.6 and 15.3%), respectively, during high fire activity period. To create AOD dataset for enhanced fire scenario, 165% increase in burn area (in around 2050) is selected based on comprehensive literature review, which is further applied to the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) fire emission. WRF-Chem model with the enhanced FINN emissions is used to simulate and represent a preserving spatial distribution of burned areas and wildfire-emitted aerosols. Our initial analysis suggests that the"enhanced 2020 wildfire" AOD can increase by a factor of 1.3 - 2, which can significantly reduce solar irradiance and increase uncertainty in generation and reliability of power system in extreme wildfire events under a high solar penetration scenario. Overall, this study provides an estimate of the impacts of wildfires on solar resource to make informed decisions on reserve planning, generation scheduling, and reliability investments.

aerosol optical depth↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of grassland fire dynamics on particulate emission factors

Understanding particulate emission factors in grassland fires is critical for improving air quality assessments and refining emissions inventories. This study explores the dynamic and heterogeneous nature of fire processes and their influence on particulate emissions. Traditional emission factor inventories often rely on static values, overlooking the spatially and temporally variable dynamics of fire behavior. Through field experiments conducted at Konza Prairie Biological Station measuring emissions with uncrewed aerial vehicles, and computational modeling using HIGRAD/FIRETEC, this research highlights the dependency of emission production on localized fire dynamics, including ignition patterns, fuel properties, and atmospheric conditions. The results demonstrate a need for fire dynamic considerations to accurately capture emissions variability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Gaseous emissions from Canadian boreal forest fires

CO2-normalized emission ratios for carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen (H2), methane (CH4), total nonmethane hydrocarbons (TNMHC), and nitrous oxide (N2O) were determined from smoke samples collected during low-altitude helicopter flights over two prescribed fires in northern Ontario, Canada. The emission ratios determined from these prescribed boreal forest fires are compared to emission ratios determined over two graminoid (grass) wetlands fires in central Florida and are found to be substantially higher (elevated levels of reduced gas production relative to CO2) during all stages of combustion. These results argue strongly for the need to characterize biomass burning emissions from the major global vegetation/ecosystems in order to couple combustion emissions to their vegetation/ecosystem type.

Cofer, Wesley R., III↗
NASA NTRS2013

Integrated Active Fire Retrievals and Biomass Burning Emissions Using Complementary Near-Coincident Ground, Airborne and Spaceborne Sensor Data

Ground, airborne and spaceborne data were collected for a 450 ha prescribed fire implemented on 18 October 2011 at the Henry W. Coe State Park in California. The integration of various data elements allowed near coincident active fire retrievals to be estimated. The Autonomous Modular Sensor-Wildfire (AMS) airborne multispectral imaging system was used as a bridge between ground and spaceborne data sets providing high quality reference information to support satellite fire retrieval error analyses and fire emissions estimates. We found excellent agreement between peak fire radiant heat flux data (less than 1% error) derived from near-coincident ground radiometers and AMS. Both MODIS and GOES imager active fire products were negatively influenced by the presence of thick smoke, which was misclassified as cloud by their algorithms, leading to the omission of fire pixels beneath the smoke, and resulting in the underestimation of their retrieved fire radiative power (FRP) values for the burn plot, compared to the reference airborne data. Agreement between airborne and spaceborne FRP data improved significantly after correction for omission errors and atmospheric attenuation, resulting in as low as 5 difference between AquaMODIS and AMS. Use of in situ fuel and fire energy estimates in combination with a collection of AMS, MODIS, and GOES FRP retrievals provided a fuel consumption factor of 0.261 kg per MJ, total energy release of 14.5 x 10(exp 6) MJ, and total fuel consumption of 3.8 x 10(exp 6) kg. Fire emissions were calculated using two separate techniques, resulting in as low as 15 difference for various species

airborne scanner↗
NASA NTRS2008

Measurement of Fire Radiative Energy from Space and Implications for Fire-Disaster Monitoring and Smoke Emissions Modeling

Measurement of fire radiative energy (FRE) release rate or power (FRP) from satellite provides a vital mechanism for distinguishing different strengths of fires. Analysis of 1-km resolution fire data, acquired globally by the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites from 2000 to 2006, showed instantaneous FRP values ranging between 0.02 MW and 1866 MW, to which simple thresholds can be applied to categorize fires by strength, in a similar fashion as the strengths of earthquakes and hurricanes. Analysis of regional mean FRP per unit area of land (FRP flux) shows that at peak fire season in certain regions, fires can be responsible for up to 0.2 W/m2 at peak time of day. When considered as the active fire contribution to the direct surface radiative forcing (RF) in the different fire regions, this order of magnitude of FRF fluxes is non negligible. It has been determined experimentally that the amount of FRE released by a fire over the course of its duration is directly proportional to the amount of biomass consumed by it. Furthermore, at the satellite observation scale, the rate of release of FRE (i.e. FRP) is proportional to the rate of biomass consumption, and that of emission of smoke particulates and eventually also other smoke constituents. Therefore, current research efforts are geared toward deriving simple parameterizations that will facilitate direct input of FRP measurements in models, not only to improve the accuracy of burned-biomass and smoke emissions estimations, but also to reduce the hitherto practiced heavy reliance on multiple indirect parameters with indeterminate uncertainties.

Ichoku, Charles↗
NASA NTRS2004

Forest Understory Fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and Non-ENSO Years: Area Burned and Committed Carbon Emissions

"Understory fires" that burn the floor of standing forests are one of the most important types of forest impoverishment in the Amazon, especially during the severe droughts of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes. However, we are aware of no estimates of the areal extent of these fires for the Brazilian Amazon and, hence, of their contribution to Amazon carbon fluxes to the atmosphere. We calculated the area of forest understory fires for the Brazilian Amazon region during an El Nino (1998) and a non El Nino (1995) year based on forest fire scars mapped with satellite images for three locations in eastern and southern Amazon, where deforestation is concentrated. The three study sites represented a gradient of both forest types and dry season severity. The burning scar maps were used to determine how the percentage of forest that burned varied with distance from agricultural clearings. These spatial functions were then applied to similar forest/climate combinations outside of the study sites to derive an initial estimate for the Brazilian Amazon. Ninety-one percent of the forest area that burned in the study sites was within the first kilometer of a clearing for the non ENSO year and within the first four kilometers for the ENSO year. The area of forest burned by understory forest fire during the severe drought (ENSO) year (3.9 millions of hectares) was 13 times greater than the area burned during the average rainfall year (0.2 million hectares), and twice the area of annual deforestation rate. Dense forest was, proportionally, the forest area most affected by understory fires during the El Nino year, while understory fires were concentrated in transitional forests during the year of average rainfall. Our estimate of aboveground tree biomass killed by fire ranged from 0.06 Pg to 0.38 Pg during the ENSO and from 0,004 Pg to 0,024 Pg during the non ENSO.

Alencar, A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The effects of fire on biogenic emissions of methane and nitric oxide from wetlands

Enhanced emissions of methane (CH4) and nitric oxide (NO) were measured following three controlled burns in a Florida wetlands in 1987 and 1988. Wetlands are the major global source of methane resulting from metabolic activity of methanogenic bacteria. Methanogens require carbon dioxide, acetate, or formate for their growth and the metabolic production of methane. All three water-soluble compounds are produced in large concentrations during biomass burning. Postfire methane emissions exceeded 0.15 g CH 4/sq m per day. Preburn and postburn measurements of soil nutrients indicate significant postburn increases in soil ammonium, from 8.35 to 13.49 parts per million (ppm) in the upper 5 cm of the Juncus marsh and from 8.83 to 23.75 ppm in the upper 5 cm of the Spartina marsh. Soil nitrate concentrations were found to decrease in both marshes after the fire. These measurements indicate that the combustion products of biomass burning exert an important 'fertilizing' effect on the biosphere and on the biogenic production of environmentally significant atmospheric gases.

Levine, Joel S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global Simulations Suggest Biomass Burning Aerosol Emissions From Grassland Fires Could Be Important Ice Nucleating Particles

Ice nucleating particles (INP) capable of nucleating ice crystals via immersion freezing at temperatures above approximately −35°C may strongly influence cloud glaciation, with implications for global precipitation and climate feedback. In addition to mineral dust, soil dust, and marine organics, laboratory and field measurements suggest biomass burning aerosols (BBA) can act as immersion-mode INP between around −30°C and −15°C. However, the contribution of BBA to the global INP budget remains poorly understood due to poor knowledge of which fuels yield INPs, uncertainties in global coverage of those fuels, and unknown size distributions of the INPs in the BBA. Nonetheless, with some understanding of these uncertainties from sensitivity studies, the relative importance of ice nucleation activity of BBA compared to other INP sources can be quantified. In this work, we investigate the potential global importance of BBA as INP using a global aerosol-climate model, specifically the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). We evaluate the model using field campaign data sets. We examine potential uncertainties in fuel types and particle sizes on BBA-based INP concentrations. Averaged over June–September between 15°S and 50°S, BBA is a more important INP than dust and marine INP about 30% of the time at altitudes with temperatures between −30°C and −20°C. Our simulations therefore suggest BBA INPs may be at least as important as mineral dust and marine INP over the atmospheric regions and seasons where grassland fires are frequent.

Gohil, Kanishk [Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsb↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Darkening of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Trends, Drivers and Projections (1981-2100)

The surface energy balance and meltwater production of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) are modulated by snow and ice albedo through the amount of absorbed solar radiation. Here we show, using space-borne multispectral data collected during the 3 decades from 1981 to 2012, that summertime surface albedo over the GrIS decreased at a statistically significant (99 %) rate of 0.02 decade(sup -1) between 1996 and 2012. Over the same period, albedo modelled by the Modele Atmospherique Regionale (MAR) also shows a decrease, though at a lower rate (approximately -0.01 decade(sup -1)) than that obtained from space-borne data. We suggest that the discrepancy between modelled and measured albedo trends can be explained by the absence in the model of processes associated with the presence of light-absorbing impurities. The negative trend in observed albedo is confined to the regions of the GrIS that undergo melting in summer, with the dry snow zone showing no trend. The period 1981-1996 also showed no statistically significant trend over the whole GrIS. Analysis of MAR outputs indicates that the observed albedo decrease is attributable to the combined effects of increased near-surface air temperatures, which enhanced melt and promoted growth in snow grain size and the expansion of bare ice areas, and to trends in light-absorbing impurities (LAI) on the snow and ice surfaces. Neither aerosol models nor in situ and remote sensing observations indicate increasing trends in LAI in the atmosphere over Greenland. Similarly, an analysis of the number of fires and BC emissions from fires points to the absence of trends for such quantities. This suggests that the apparent increase of LAI in snow and ice might be related to the exposure of a "dark band" of dirty ice and to increased consolidation of LAI at the surface with melt, not to increased aerosol deposition. Albedo projections through to the end of the century under different warming scenarios consistently point to continued darkening, with albedo anomalies averaged over the whole ice sheet lower by 0.08 in 2100 than in 2000, driven solely by a warming climate. Future darkening is likely underestimated because of known underestimates in modelled melting (as seen in hindcasts) and because the model albedo scheme does not currently include the effects of LAI, which have a positive feedback on albedo decline through increased melting, grain growth, and darkening.

surface energy↗