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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

California wildfire spread derived using VIIRS satellite observations and an object-based tracking system

Changing wildfire regimes in the western US and other fire-prone regions pose considerable risks to human health and ecosystem function. However, our understanding of wildfire behavior is still limited by a lack of data products that systematically quantify fire spread, behavior and impacts. Here we develop a novel object-based system for tracking the progression of individual fires using 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire detections. At each half-daily time step, fire pixels are clustered according to their spatial proximity, and are either appended to an existing active fire object or are assigned to a new object. This automatic system allows us to update the attributes of each fire event, delineate the fire perimeter, and identify the active fire front shortly after satellite data acquisition. Using this system, we mapped the history of California fires during 2012–2020. Our approach and data stream may be useful for calibration and evaluation of fire spread models, estimation of near-real-time wildfire emissions, and as means for prescribing initial conditions in fire forecast models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electrochemical Conversion of Carbon Dioxide to Alcohols

The vast quantities of fossil fuels used by our society have led to unprecedented atmospheric carbon dioxide levels with widespread climate impacts. Electrochemical conversion of carbon dioxide to valuable fuels and chemicals is a promising technology to utilize carbon dioxide emitted from coal-fired power plants. In this project, the team developed an integrated electrolyzer system that takes the flue gas from the power plant and produce C2/C3 alcohols (i.e., ethanol and n-propanol) through a two-stage electrolysis process. The pretreated carbon dioxide from the flue gas is converted into carbon monoxide by the first stage carbon dioxide electrolysis, followed by the second stage where the produced carbon monoxide is further converted into liquid C2/C3 alcohols with a high selectivity and energy efficiency. Impact and anticipated fate of flue gas contaminants, such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, on the proposed technology was also evaluated. Furthermore, a full analysis of economics and life-cycle of the carbon dioxide electrolysis technology for carbon dioxide emissions mitigation from coal-fired power plants was conducted to evaluate the economic feasibility and carbon dioxide mitigation potential of the proposed technology.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Use of Systems Engineering in Repurposing Coal-Fired Power Plants with Malta Pumped Thermal Energy Storage System

he electric sector across North America is facing a transition. Both economics and policy decisions have pointed towards a broad retirement of fossil assets across markets. Owners are facing the problem of how to evolve the base of the electric sector from fossil asset to greener alternative. Coal-fired power plants built the modern electricity grid. Their rotating machinery are the beating heart of the grid, providing essential resiliency and reliability services. Power plant retirements are disruptive to plant workforces and cause outsized impacts on surrounding communities. The transition from thermal power plants that use rotating machinery to generate electricity (e.g., coal- and gas-fired plants) to variable, inverter-based generation (e.g., solar and wind) is affecting the reliability of the electric grid. Grid operators and national regulators have issued warnings about known and anticipated risk. In 2021, Malta Inc. was awarded a Department of Energy (DOE) grant to study how to integrate a Malta 100MW Pumped Heat Energy Storage (PHES) system with a retiring coal-fired power plant to meet emissions requirements, retain plant workforces, preserve communities, and maintain grid reliability. This presentation provides a summary of this study, focusing on how systems engineering approach was used to arrive at a proposed design concept that met multiple objectives and requirements. There will be three main parts for this presentation. The first part of the presentation will focus on how different systems engineering was applied for this work. In particular, the following areas: stakeholder engagement, site selection process, developing requirements and use cases for the integrated system, defining the system and its boundary, coming up with different system architecture/option, performing a techno-economic analysis to compare the different options and down selection of the preferred option, will be discusses. For these areas, discussion on the decisions on how much breadth and depth to go into each area will be provided. These discussions provide good insights into how to apply systems engineering. The second part of the presentation will provide a deeper dive into the two recommended integration options that repurpose coal-fired power plants with Malta PHES system. The comparison of the two options and general guidance of how to choose an option will be provided. This is particularly useful for utilities who are facing coal-plant retirements. The two options will be compared based on its performance (such as power output, efficiency), complexity, and cost. The social impact on local communities of the two options will also be discussed. The final part of the presentation will discuss the impact that this work has had, including Malta Inc. being invited to the White House to discuss progress and outcomes of this work with the Interagency Working Group on Coal and Power Plant Communities and Economic Revitalization. In summary, this presentation aims to provide a showcase of how sy

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The influence of random packed column parameters on the liquid holdup and interfacial area

Abstract Carbon dioxide capture via solvent absorption in packed columns has emerged as a potential technology to mitigate coal‐fired power plant CO 2 emissions. Parameters, including packing types, solvent properties, and operating conditions, could potentially affect the packed column CO 2 capture efficiency. To understand the importance of those parameters and help packed column optimization, a design of experiments (DoEs) method was proposed to generate input parameter matrix. Combined with multiphase computational fluid dynamics (CFD), the random packed column parameter influence on the liquid holdup and interfacial area can be efficiently investigated. Surrogate‐based sensitivity analysis shows that the solvent flow rate and contact angle are key factors dictating liquid holdup and interfacial area. On the other hand, solvent viscosity has a marginal impact on the interfacial area. The sensitivity scores were calculated for each input parameter to guide the selection of dimensionless numbers for the liquid holdup and interfacial area correlation development.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Carbon Capture Design and Costing: Phase 2 (C3DC2) (Final Project Report)

ION Clean Energy’s (ION) advanced solvent is one of the leading solvent systems currently under development for post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture. ION has partnered with Nebraska Power Public District (NPPD), Sargent & Lundy, Koch Modular Process Systems, and Siemens to design a commercial-scale (700 MW) capture system utilizing ION’s advanced solvent, ICE-21, retrofitted onto NPPD’s Gerald Gentleman Station in Sutherland, Nebraska, USA. The capture system was designed to take full advantage of the solvent benefits including an efficient physical plant layout, reduced energy requirements, less solvent degradation, lower emissions, and lower capital costs relative to systems built with DOE BBS case benchmark solvents. This Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) study also included an investigation of utilizing biomass co-combustion with the aim of reaching near-zero emissions for this coal-fired power generating unit. The targeted biomass was from local resources in Nebraska tied to the production of ethanol.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of Membrane-based Carbon Capture using Dimensional Analysis, CFD and Process System Engineering

Carbon capture is a promising option to mitigate CO2 emissions from existing coal-fired power plants, cement and steel industries, and petrochemical complexes. Among the available technologies, membrane-based carbon capture presents the lowest energy consumption, operating costs, and carbon footprint. In addition, membrane processes have important operational flexibil-ity and response times. On the other hand, the major challenges to widespread application of this technology are related to reducing capital costs and improving membrane stability and durability.To upscale the technology into stacked flat sheet configurations, high fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) that describes the separation process accurately are required. High fidelity simulations have been shown to be effective in studying the complex transport phenomena in membrane systems. In addition, obtaining high CO2 recovery percentages and product purity requires a multi-stage membrane process, where the optimal network configuration of the membrane modules must be studied in a systematic way. In order to address the design problem at process scale, we formulate a superstructure for the membrane-based carbon capture, including up to three separation stages. In the formulation of the optimization problem, we include reduced models, based on rigorous CFD simulations of the membrane modules. Numerical results indicate that the optimal design includes three membrane stages, and the capture cost is 45.4 $/t-CO2.

Pedrozo, Hector A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Membrane-based Carbon Capture Process Optimization using CFD Modeling

Carbon capture is a promising option to mitigate CO2 emissions from existing coal-fired power plants, cement and steel industries, and petrochemical complexes. Among the available technologies, membrane-based carbon capture presents the lowest energy consumption, operating costs, and carbon footprint. In addition, membrane processes have important operational flexibility and response times. On the other hand, the major challenges to widespread application of this technology are related to reducing capital costs and improving membrane stability and durability. To upscale the technology into stacked flat sheet configurations, high fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) that describes the separation process accurately are required. High fidelity simulations have been shown to be effective in studying the complex transport phenomena in membrane systems. In addition, obtaining high CO2 recovery percentages and product purity re-quires a multi-stage membrane process, where the optimal network configuration of the mem-brane modules must be studied in a systematic way. In order to address the design problem at process scale, we formulate a superstructure for the membrane-based carbon capture, including up to three separation stages. In the formulation of the optimization problem, we include reduced models, based on rigorous CFD simulations of the membrane modules.

Pedrozo, Hector A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Membrane-based carbon capture process optimization using CFD modeling

Carbon capture is a promising option to mitigate CO2 emissions from existing coal-fired power plants, cement and steel industries, and petrochemical complexes. Among the available technologies, membrane-based carbon capture presents the lowest energy consumption, operating costs, and carbon footprint. In addition, membrane processes have important operational flexibility and response times. On the other hand, the major challenges to widespread application of this technology are related to reducing capital costs and improving membrane stability and durability. To upscale the technology into stacked flat sheet configurations, high fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) that describes the separation process accurately are required. High fidelity simulations have been shown to be effective in studying the complex transport phenomena in membrane systems. In addition, obtaining high CO2 recovery percentages and product purity requires a multi-stage membrane process, where the optimal network configuration of the membrane modules must be studied in a systematic way. In order to address the design problem at process scale, we formulate a superstructure for the membrane-based carbon capture, including up to three separation stages. In the formulation of the optimization problem, we include reduced models, based on rigorous CFD simulations of the membrane modules. Numerical results indicate that the optimal design includes three membrane stages, and the capture cost is 45.4 $/t-CO2.

Pedrozo, Hector A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A systematic comparison of machine learning methods for modeling of dynamic processes applied to combustion emission rate modeling

Ten established, data-driven dynamic algorithms are surveyed and a practical guide for understanding these methods generated. Existing Python programming packages for implementing each algorithm are acknowledged, and the model equations necessary for prediction are presented. A case study on a coal-fired power plant’s NO x emission rates is performed, directly comparing each modeling method’s performance on a mutual system. Each model is evaluated by its root mean squared error (RMSE) on out-of-sample future horizon predictions. Optimal hyperparameters are identified using either an exhaustive search or genetic algorithm. The top five model structures of each method are used to recursively predict future NO x emission rates over a 60-step time horizon. The RMSE at each future timestep is determined, and the recursive output prediction trends compared against measurements in time. The GRU neural network is identified as the best candidate for representing the system, demonstrating accurate and stable predictions across the future horizon by all considered models, while satisfactory performance was observed in several of the ARX/NARX formulations. Finally, these efforts have contributed 1) a concise resource of multiple proven dynamic machine learning methods, 2) a practical guide explaining the use of these methods, effectively lowering the “barrier-to-entry” of deploying such models in control systems, 3) a comparison study evaluating each method’s performance on a mutual system, 4) demonstration of accurate multi-timestep emissions modeling suitable for systems-level control, and 5) generalizable results demonstrating the suitability of each method for prediction over a multi-step future horizon to other complex dynamic systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Low-intensity frequent fires in coniferous forests transform soil organic matter in ways that may offset ecosystem carbon losses

The impact of shifting disturbance regimes on soil carbon (C) storage is a key uncertainty in global change research. Wildfires in coniferous forests are becoming more frequent in many regions, potentially causing large C emissions. Repeated low-intensity prescribed fires can mitigate wildfire severity, but repeated combustion may decrease soil C unless compensatory responses stabilize soil organic matter. Here, we tested how 30 years of decadal prescribed burning affected C and nitrogen (N) in plants, detritus, and soils in coniferous forests in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA. Tree basal area and litter stocks were resilient to fire, but fire reduced forest floor C by 77% (-36.4 Mg C/ha). In mineral soils, fire reduced C that was free from minerals by 41% (-4.4 Mg C/ha) but not C associated with minerals, and only in depths ≤ 5 cm. Fire also transformed the properties of remaining mineral soil organic matter by increasing the proportion of C in a pyrogenic form (from 3.2% to 7.5%) and associated with minerals (from 46% to 58%), suggesting the remaining soil C is more resistant to decomposition. Laboratory assays illustrated that fire reduced microbial CO2 respiration rates by 55% and the activity of eight extracellular enzymes that degrade cellulosic and aromatic compounds by 40–66%. Lower decomposition was correlated with lower inorganic N (-49%), especially ammonium, suggesting N availability is coupled with decomposition. The relative increase in forms of soil organic matter that are resistant to decay or stabilized onto mineral surfaces, and the associated decline in decomposition suggest that low-intensity fires may promote mineral soil C storage in pools with long mean residence times in coniferous forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimentally determined traits shape bacterial community composition one and five years following wildfire

Abstract Wildfires represent major ecological disturbances, burning 2–3% of Earth’s terrestrial area each year with sometimes drastic effects above- and belowground. Soil bacteria offer an ideal, yet understudied system within which to explore fundamental principles of fire ecology. To understand how wildfires restructure soil bacterial communities and alter their functioning, we sought to translate aboveground fire ecology to belowground systems by determining which microbial traits are important post-fire and whether changes in bacterial communities affect carbon cycling. We employed an uncommon approach to assigning bacterial traits, by first running three laboratory experiments to directly determine which microbes survive fires, grow quickly post-fire and/or thrive in the post-fire environment, while tracking CO 2 emissions. We then quantified the abundance of taxa assigned to each trait in a large field dataset of soils one and five years after wildfires in the boreal forest of northern Canada. We found that fast-growing bacteria rapidly dominate post-fire soils but return to pre-burn relative abundances by five years post-fire. Although both fire survival and affinity for the post-fire environment were statistically significant predictors of post-fire community composition, neither are particularly influential. Our results from the incubation trials indicate that soil carbon fluxes post-wildfire are not likely limited by microbial communities, suggesting strong functional resilience. From these findings, we offer a traits-based framework of bacterial responses to wildfire.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Emissions mitigation technology for advanced water-lean solvent-based CO 2 capture processes

This technical final report submitted to DOE/NETL presents all the research activities performed during the entirety of DE-FE0031660 project-Emissions Mitigation Technology for Advanced Water-Lean Solvent-Based CO 2 Capture Processes which spans from October 2018 through March 2022. RTI International has been conducting studies from fundamental and operational aspects to reduce the overall amine emissions from the advanced Water-Lean Solvent (WLS) systems, specifically RTI’s Non-Aqueous Solvent (NAS). This technical final report will highlight the key findings from project which align closely to the project objectives which are: Identify the contribution of vapor loss, entrainment, and aerosols to the overall emissions of water-lean systems; Determine the significance of CO 2 capture system operating parameters to the amine emissions; Develop an emissions model based on critical operating parameters; Evaluate the effectiveness of emissions mitigation devices to reduce the amine emissions to <1 ppm under flue coal-fired flue gas; and, Determine the contribution of the ECTs to the overall CO 2 capture cost. The following are the key findings based on numerous tests using both lab-scale setups and parametric testing performed at RTI’s Bench-scale Gas Absorption System (BsGAS). During the BP1, the aerosol generation system and monitoring equipment were installed at BsGAS to produce and determine the aerosol characteristics during the NAS CO 2 capture process. The aerosol produced by this setup produced aerosols with the peak diameter and concentration of 50 micron and 1.2E10 7 cm -3 , respectively. These particle sizes and concentrations are matched to those observed in the actual coal-fired power plant flue gases and expected to be found at the absorber inlet of the CO 2 capture system. Over 1,300 hours of parametric testing have been conducted to evaluate the impact of the aerosols and operating conditions during the CO 2 capture with NAS on the overall amine emissions in the treated flue gas. At the worse condition tested, the presence of the aerosols in the flue gas could increase the overall emissions by 10X compared to the baseline emissions from NAS’s vapor pressure. CO 2 capture rate was found to be a main factor impacting the overall emissions as well as aerosol size and concentrations in the absorber off-gas. The higher CO 2 capture rate, the higher amine emissions in the treated gas. The temperature difference between the temperature bulge seen in the absorber and the water wash temperature also impacts the particle growth where the larger the temperature difference, the more amine emissions from aerosols in the treated gas. The majority of the aerosols did not grow substantially in the system, and the particle concentrations remained nearly constant between the absorber inlet and wash outlet. Only a small portion of the particles were found to grow significantly. The high efficiency demister with mesh size of 5-10 micron can be installed to remove a portion of the aerosols from the gas stream leaving the water wash. Overall, these results from parametric testing have established the emission baseline and validate our assumption on the need of emission control technologies (ECT) in order to minimize the emissions from the baseline NAS CO 2 capture process. Over 2,000 of BsGAS operating hours was used to investigate a handful of process improvements which led to a selection of the vital few changes that effectively control the amine emissions. These process improvements are lime-coated-filters for absorber gas inlet, advanced demister at the top of the absorber, a second water wash with amine recovery unit were designed, installed, and tested at BsGAS at the end of BP1. The result showed that the NAS CO 2 capture process with these additional emission control devices could lower the amine emission in the treated gas to about 1 ppm using a simulated coal-fire flue gas stream. The main contributor in lowering the amine emission came from the second water wash with amine recovery unit where the amine concentration in the scrubbing water was kept below 2 wt% through a continuous amine removal via an adsorbent bed, resulting in a low amine vapor pressure. The adsorbent bed was regenerated via a direct steam regeneration and the recover amine was returned to the absorber to minimize wastewater and makeup amine. A flue gas generation system was designed and installed during the first half of BP2 to support the emission testing using a real coal-derived flue gas. The system is capable of generating both coal- and natural gas- derived flue gases with the composition of the gaseous species highly resemble to that of the power plant flue gases. The particulates detected in the coal-derived flue gas showed the mean diameter of 1 micron. The CO 2 capture operating was then proceed using the real coal-derived flue gas where the amine emission was controlled to be about 0-3 ppm for the total run time of about 200 hours. Similar testing was conducted with natural gas-derived flue gas and the result showed a highly amine emission of 30 ppm under the total run time of 200 hours. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Partial Least Squares Projection to Latent Structures (PLS) techniques were applied to the parametric testing data to derive a multivariate statistical model. The model was validated and trained with half of the data collected, and the predictive ability of the model was evaluated using the remaining half of the data. The resulting empirical model was capable of predicting the overall emissions from the NAS process without the ECTs with ±15% accuracy (average absolute deviation, AAD) in BP1. As more emission data were obtained under the real coal-flue gas in the BP2, the model incorporated these new set of data to reflect the final process configuration, operating parameters, and amine emission. This results in the updated empirical model predicting the amine emission from the NAS CO 2 capture process with 84% goodness-of-fit (R 2 ), 85% predictability (Q 2 ), and 15% AAD. The study evaluates the use of RTI’s Non-Aqueous Solvent technology for 90% CO 2 capture from a net 650 MWe pulverized coal power plant, downstream of the flue-gas desulfurization unit. The captured CO 2 has a purity of > 95% CO 2 , and is dried, compressed to 15.3 MPa (2,215 psia), ready for sequestration. The analysis uses Case B12B from the DOE Baseline study on Bituminous Coal, Revision 4 where the Cansolv CO 2 capture plant is replaced by the RTI CO 2 Capture plant. The CO 2 capture plant has been sized to capture >90% CO 2 from flue gas derived from a net 650 MWe supercritical pulverized coal power plant. The CO 2 capture plant is equipped with emission control technologies that limits the amine emissions to < 1 ppm. Two different cases were evaluated for the technoeconomic study. The key difference between the two cases is the regenerator pressure. In Case 1, the regenerator operates at 0.195 MPa (28.3 psia), whereas in Case 2, the regenerator pressure is 0.44 MPa (64 psia) thus removing the need for the first stage of compression of the eight-stage compression train. Results from the TEA are compared against the DOE reference cases for SCPC plant with and without CO 2 Capture (Case B12A and Case B12B of the DOE Baseline study, respectively). Case 2 with CO 2 regeneration at higher pressure results in the lower cost of CO 2 capture. The total capital cost of the capture process has been estimated using 2018 dollars in Aspen Process Economic Analyzer and was estimated to be $579 MM. The capture plant operation leads to a total parasitic power loss rate of 96 MWe, resulting in a decrease in pulverized coal power plant efficiency of 7.8% points. The resulting cost of electric power increases from 64.4 mills/kWh, for no capture, to 97.5 mills/kWh, with 90% capture, an increase of 51% in the COE. The cost of capturing 90% CO 2 was estimated to be $38.2/tonne-CO 2 , and meets the DOE target of $40/t-CO 2 . Emission control technologies (ECT) investigated in this project includes a second water wash with use of activated carbon beds for removal of amine from the wash water prior to recirculation in the water wash. These ECT allow operation of the CO 2 capture plant with < 1 ppm amine emissions with the treated flue gas and contributes to $2.4/t-CO 2 captured. Amine emissions derived from thermal and oxidative degradations were investigated under this project along with the emissions derived from aerosols for the NAS system. The thermally degraded of the lean NAS showed less than 4% decreased of the original total amine content in the NAS at 150 °C while the result obtained at 120 °C showed no drop in total amine content, suggesting that thermal degradation of the NAS is minimal. These results also suggested that the thermally degraded species are not likely formed and contributed to the emissions due to the low regeneration temperature of the NAS at 90-105 °C. The oxidative degradation, on the other hand, could become problematic as some of these oxidative degraded species were observed during the NAS-5 testing at National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) and SINTEF in our previous project. The rapid screening of selected inhibitors suggested that oxidative degradation of NAS can be suppressed using thiol containing compounds in amounts of at least 1 mol%. The detailed mechanistic degradation pathway was conceived for a specific amine used in NAS formulation during BP2. he reduction of the nitrosamines caused by the NO x present in the flue gas was also examined. The study suggested that the thermo-chemical treatment of the NAS solvent would be a more effective and economically viable compared to removing NO x at the DCC.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projections of wildfire risk and activities under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios

Wildfires are important ecosystem processes that have a significant impact on terrestrial vegetation, environment, and climate. This study investigates how future wildfire risk and activities could change under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios relative to pre-industrial levels using a modified McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDIn) and the CLM4.5-BGC land surface model. Sixteen Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 were employed to supply the variables of climate change under low, middle, and high greenhouse emission scenarios in the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios. The ensemble means from the FFDIn and results from the CLM4.5-BGC with multiple forcings show that the dry areas in the southwestern US, Brazilian Highlands, and Arabian islands are projected to face higher wildfire risk with larger burned areas and more carbon emissions under a warmer climate. The Congo Basin and part of the Amazon could have a lower wildfire risk with smaller burned areas and less carbon emissions. The absolute changes in the projected FFDIn are small, although large increases are observed in boreal areas, particularly in the winter and spring. Burned area and carbon emissions are projected to increase in general in the boreal area but decrease in northeastern Asia. Compared to the 1.5 °C scenario, the wildfire risk and burned area levels are projected to increase under the 2.0 °C scenario except in the western Amazon. However, fire carbon emissions are projected to decrease more in tropical areas under the 2.0 °C scenario. The different change directions in eastern North America and eastern China produced by the FFDIn and CLM4.5-BGC suggest the potential effect of non-meteorological elements on fire activities.

1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change

Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, in this work, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of forest degradation classification on the uncertainty of aboveground carbon estimates in the Amazon

Tropical forests are critical for the global carbon budget, yet they have been threatened by deforestation and forest degradation by fire, selective logging, and fragmentation. Existing uncertainties on land cover classification and in biomass estimates hinder accurate attribution of carbon emissions to specific forest classes. In this study, we used textural metrics derived from PlanetScope images to implement a probabilistic classification framework to identify intact, logged and burned forests in three Amazonian sites. We also estimated biomass for these forest classes using airborne lidar and compared biomass uncertainties using the lidar-derived estimates only to biomass uncertainties considering the forest degradation classification as well. Our classification approach reached overall accuracy of 0.86, with accuracy at individual sites varying from 0.69 to 0.93. Logged forests showed variable biomass changes, while burned forests showed an average carbon loss of 35%. We found that including uncertainty in forest degradation classification significantly increased uncertainty and decreased estimates of mean carbon density in two of the three test sites. Our findings indicate that the attribution of biomass changes to forest degradation classes needs to account for the uncertainty in forest degradation classification. By combining very high-resolution images with lidar data, we could attribute carbon stock changes to specific pathways of forest degradation. This approach also allows quantifying uncertainties of carbon emissions associated with forest degradation through logging and fire. Both the attribution and uncertainty quantification provide critical information for national greenhouse gas inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Global Methane Observation System to Reduce Uncertainty for Anthropogenic and Natural Sources and Sinks for Detecting and Attributing Climate Feedbacks

Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations are accelerating global warming as net emissions increase. Observing systems that quantify sources remain too sparse and fragmented to detect trends—especially in remote regions where climate‐driven natural emissions may be rising. We provide a framework for quantifying uncertainty reductions through the implementation of a global ecosystem‐methane observing system designed to: (i) substantially lower uncertainty in sectoral and regional emissions, (ii) separate co‐occurring anthropogenic and natural fluxes, and (iii) trend detection at regional scales to verify mitigation progress and provide early warning of natural feedbacks. Using bottom‐up inventories and process‐model ensembles for 2014–2023, we show that anthropogenic emissions remain uncertain by ∼32% globally, while natural sources—tropical and boreal‐arctic wetlands, fires, and inland waters—carry far larger uncertainties (+ 70%) and trend uncertainties reaching ∼200%. Additional observations must match spatial emission structure to increase observability of emissions: high‐resolution satellite constellations for point sources combined with expanded flux networks and wetland mapping for diffuse sources, and denser ground‐based atmospheric column measurements to restore observability in under‐sampled tropics and high latitudes. Notional analyses indicate that targeted additions of flux towers and ∼20 in situ atmospheric column concentration instruments per key tropical region could reduce continental‐scale uncertainties at modest cost. Conceptual illustration of a Global Ecosystem Methane Observing System (GEM‐OS) integrating satellites, aircraft, atmospheric networks, and ecosystem measurements to quantify methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. The multi‐scale observing framework improves source attribution, reduces uncertainty in regional methane budgets, and enables early detection of climate‐driven feedbacks from wetlands, fires, permafrost, agriculture, and fossil‐fuel emissions.

Ciais, P↗
DOE OSTI2022

Start-up and Emergency Shutdown Modeling for a Coal-fired 10MWe sCO₂ Power Plant

As part of a Phase II Front End Engineering Design (FEED) study for the DOE Fossil Fuel Large Scale Pilots program, investigations of novel start-up and emergency shutdown methods for a stoker-fed, coal-fired, 10MWe sCO₂ power plant proposal were performed. These investigations were performed using 1D transient system models of the plant created within the GT-SUITE system modeling platform. The system model components were created using vendor quotation data (heat exchangers), performance maps (turbomachines), or FMU models (fired heater). Previously, Echogen Power Systems (Echogen) has used a sCO₂ power cycle start-up method that fills the system with liquid CO₂ to facilitate easy use of an electrically-driven start pump to transition the system from initial CO₂ fill to turbo-compressor initialization. The novel start-up method presented attempts this transition with a minimal filling of the system with liquid CO₂, to reduce the total CO₂ inventory required. This method leaves the start pump vulnerable to a two phase inlet condition as system pressure is below the CO₂ saturation pressure for the condenser cooling water temperature (Tcw). System model cases at Tcw of 18°C, 26°C, and 32°C, corresponding to cold, design, and hot ambient days, were analyzed to determine if the SP inlet condition could be kept as a subcooled liquid and estimate the CO₂ inventory reduction amount./p> Stoker-fed, coal-fired heaters continue to emit heat for some time even after emergency shutdown from events such as a power failure. This heat emission would lead to a failure of the fired heater, as the metal overheats, if the CO₂ flow is shut off. The emergency shutdown method presented utilizes CO₂ vented by a controllable vent valve (CRV) to provide CO₂ cooling flow to the fired heater. To determine the effectiveness of this method at keeping the fired heater peak tubing metal temperature below the ASME material temperature limit, for pressures below 5 MPa, of 816 °C, system model cases with CRV diameters ranging from 4” to 10”, and an alternative CO₂ vent routing with CRV size of 6”, were investigated./p>

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatially calibrating polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) as proxies of area burned by vegetation fires: Insights from comparisons of historical data and sedimentary PAH fluxes

Many regions worldwide have experienced increasing wildfire activity in recent years and climate changes are predicted to result in more frequent and severe fires. Reconstruction of past fire activity offers paleoenvironmental context for modern and future burning. Pyrogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been increasingly used as a molecular biomarker for fire occurrence in the paleorecord and offer opportunity for nuanced reconstructions of fire characteristics. A suite of PAHs are produced during combustion, and the emission amount and assemblage is influenced by many variables including fuel type, fire temperature, and oxygen availability. Despite recent advances in understanding the controls and taphonomy of these biomass burning markers, the spatial scale of this proxy is unknown. In this paper, measurements of PAH fluxes preserved in a lake sediment archive from the Sierra Nevada, California were compared with a historical geographic information system dataset of area burned up to 150 km distance from the lake to determine the spatial scales for which these biomarkers are reliable proxies of burning. Comparisons of PAH fluxes with charcoal accumulation rates in the same sediments suggest that pyrogenic particulate transport modulates low to mid-molecular weight PAHs via adsorption. Overall, the results indicate that PAH records integrate a combination of spatial signals of area burned and measurement of individual PAHs may enable cross-scale paleofire reconstructions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗