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Risk Reduction Project in Pad Abort-1 Launch Vehicle Loads & Dynamics

The Pad Abort (PA-1) system includes the Launch Abort System (LAS) and the Command Module (CM). The PA-1 abort flight test will launch from the White Sands Missile Range. Prior to the ignition, the vehicle will be resting, without restraints, on a short support structure. The Launch Abort Motor will ignite and burn for less than 5 seconds before a 20 second coast. Then the LAS will separate from the CM and the CM will descend via parachute to a soil landing. The static firing of the Abort Motor (ST-1) for PA-1 Launch Vehicle resulted in unexpected higher levels that superseded the environment predictions and all the design and test loads of all subassemblies and components. A rapid project was put in place to develop the flight environments, loads and associated uncertainties for the Verification Load Cycle (VLC) of PA-1. An acoustic test and shaker test of the CM were planned and executed in support of the developments of damping and transfer functions. Instead of using the traditional structure-borne envelops, the actual ST-1 pressures and forces were used to develop the internal accelerations. The PA-1 motor was cooled to 60 Deg F using thermal conditioning to reduce the thrust profile. The plumes of the abort motor were studied to determine if the airborne environments would be reduced. The combination of all items, noted above, allowed a reduction in loads for VLC.

Sasan C Armand

Analysis of Gas Absorption to A Thin Liquid Film in the Presence of A Zero-Order Chemical Reaction

The paper presents a detailed theoretical analysis of the process of gas absorption to a thin liquid film adjacent to a horizontal rotating disk. The film is formed by the impingement of a controlled liquid jet at the center of the disk and subsequent radial spreading of liquid along the disk. The chemical reaction between the gas and the liquid film can be expressed as a zero-order homogeneous reaction. The process was modeled by establishing equations for the conservation of mass, momentum, and species concentration and solving them analytically. A scaling analysis was used to determine dominant transport processes. Appropriate boundary conditions were used to solve these equations to develop expressions for the local concentration of gas across the thickness of the film and distributions of film height, bulk concentration, and Sherwood number along the radius of the disk. The partial differential equation for species concentration was solved using the separation of variables technique along with the Duhamel's theorem and the final analytical solution was expressed using confluent hypergeometric functions. Tables for eigenvalues and eigenfunctions are presented for a number of reaction rate constants. A parametric study was performed using Reynolds number, Ekman number, and dimensionless reaction rate as parameters. At all radial locations, Sherwood number increased with Reynolds number (flow rate) as well as Ekman number (rate of rotation). The enhancement of mass transfer due to chemical reaction was found to be small when compared to the case of no reaction (pure absorption), but the enhancement factor was very significant when compared to pure absorption in a stagnant liquid film. The zero-order reaction processes considered in the present investigation included the absorption of oxygen in aqueous alkaline solutions of sodiumdithionite and rhodium complex catalyzed carbonylation of methanol. Present analytical results were compared to previous theoretical results for limiting conditions, and were found to have very good agreement.

S Rajagopalan

Ni-cd Battery Life Expectancy in Geosynchronous Orbit

The feasibility of using nickel cadmium batteries as an alternate if flight qualified NiH2 batteries are not available is explored. Battery life expectancy data being a key element of power system design, an attempt is made to review the literature, life test data and in orbit performance data to develop an up to date estimate of life expectancy for NiCd batteries in a geosynchronous orbit.

Broderick, R. J.

Water Observations of Flow/No-Flow for the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado (June-July 2025 and 2026)

This dataset provides multi-year, ground-truth visual observations of surface water flow/no-flow conditions within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado, collected during June and July of 2025 and 2026. In June and July 2025, on-the-ground visual observations of flow/no-flow were collected as part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA) and Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL) Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) campaign (further details are provided within the CHESS Project Description). We obtained 377 water observations of flow/no-flow within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado. These ground-truth observations were collected to validate classification maps from remote sensing data and model results within the East-Taylor Watershed. In 2025, flow/no-flow measurements were collected using a field-based app for the CHESS Campaign (Zerion iForm). Within the field app, a water observation form was created to collect coordinates and metadata about the observation. Information collected for the water observation points included information about visually-assessed streamflow presence/absence (standard question obtained from Colorado State University’s StreamTracker project), flow estimate, stream or ponded area width, canopy cover, manganese films, iron seeps, and beaver activity. For 2025 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a data file with the water observations and coordinates (2025_Water_Observations.csv); (2) a Keyhole Markup Language Zipped (KMZ) with the water observation locations and metadata (2025_Water_Observations_Locations.kmz); (3) photos (.jpg and .jpeg) of the water observation points, organized by location, contained within 2025_Water_Observations_FieldPhotographs.zip file; and (4) water observation protocols and figures (2025_Water_Observation_Protocols.pdf). In June and July 2026, on-the-ground visual observations of flow/no-flow were collected as part of the Watershed Function SFA project. We obtained 365 water observations of flow/no-flow within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado. The 2026 observations focused on collecting repeat measurements at the 2025 flow/no-flow observation locations conducted as part of the CHESS campaign. These ground-truth observations were collected to understand differences in flow/no-flow in 2026, given the unprecedented 2026 drought in Colorado. In 2026, flow/no-flow measurements were collected using ArcGIS (Geographic Information System) Survey123. Within the field app, a water observation form was created to collect coordinates and metadata about the observation. Information collected for the water observation points included repeat information from the 2025 water observation effort, including visually-assessed streamflow presence/absence (standard question obtained from Colorado State University’s StreamTracker project), flow estimate, stream or ponded area width, canopy cover, manganese films, iron seeps, beaver activity, and a new metadata component of estimated stream depth (for select locations). For 2026 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a data file with the water observations and coordinates (2026_Water_Observations.csv); (2) a Keyhole Markup Language Zipped (KMZ) with the water observation locations and metadata (2026_Water_Observations_Locations.kmz); (3) photos (.jpg) of the water observation points, organized by location, contained within 2026_Water_Observations_FieldPhotographs.zip file; and (4) water observation protocols and figures (2026_Water_Observation_Protocols.pdf). For 2025 and 2026 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a location metadata file (locations.csv); (6) a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and (7) a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type. CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. 2026-09-02: This dataset was updated to include 2026 water observation measurements. The 2025 observation files were also updated to ensure a consistent file naming convention across water observation years.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns

Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies.

Ericson, Sean [National Renewable Energy Laborator

Kalman Filtering and RTS Smoothing for Arc-Jet Sample Edge Tracking

Accurate and temporally consistent measurements of test-article recession are required to characterize material response during arc-jet ablation experiments. However, image-based boundary measurements are often affected by segmentation noise, brightness variations, and frame-to-frame variability. This work extends arcjetCV [1] with filtering methods for tracking the evolving boundaries of hemispherical and ISO-Q test articles. Two boundary-tracking approaches based on Kalman filtering [2] were implemented. The first applies a point-wise Kalman filter followed by a Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother [3] to individual boundary-point locations. The second applies the same filtering and smoothing framework to a reduced set of geometry-dependent shape parameters. The point-wise method reduces local frame-to-frame fluctuations while preserving spatial details along the detected boundary. The shape-parameter method provides a compact and geometrically constrained estimate of the sample contour. Figure 1 illustrates the two approaches for a hemispherical test article. Both methods improve temporal consistency and support more robust estimation of surface recession from arc-jet imagery. The two filtering approaches provide complementary representations of boundary evolution and improve the reliability of image-based recession measurements during arc-jet experiments.

recession measurement

Revealing Hidden Quinones Through Diagnostic MS² Fragmentation of Peptide–Quinone Adducts

Quinones are redox-active components of natural organic matter that mediate electron transfer and influence biogeochemical processes, but many quinones in pyrogenic organic matter (PyOM) remain unresolved because they ionize poorly by mass spectrometry. Here, we present a peptide-tagging approach to improve detection of cysteine-reactive electrophiles in PyOM, with quinones expected to be a dominant subset based on reaction chemistry and selectivity experiments. A cysteine-containing peptide was used to form Michael-addition adducts, enhancing electrospray ionization and enabling untargeted screening by high-performance liquid chromatography-high-resolution tandem mass spectrometry. The method was benchmarked with five quinone standards and applied to extracts from charred plant material as a discovery-level screen for cysteine-reactive targets. We identified 98 quinone-candidate adducts (mean neutral mass ~603 Da), of which more than 70% were not detectable in native MS1 data. Among formula-assigned features, hidden quinone candidates had median (O+N)/C of 0.391 and normalized oxidation state of carbon of -0.281, consistent with relatively low polarity and low oxidation state. These results reveal a previously inaccessible pool of hidden redox-active compounds in PyOM and provide a framework for prioritizing quinone-like electrophiles for confirmation and incorporation into models of fire-driven biogeochemical cycling.

LC-MS/MS

In-Flight Calibration of ESA Hera’s Hyperscout-H Imager

ESA’s Hera space mission is on its way to the mission target, the binary asteroid (65803) Didymos. HyperScout-H, one of the instruments onboard Hera, is a hyperspectral imager operating in the visible and near-infrared regions between 0.65 and 0.95 μm. HyperScout-H will enable a detailed assessment of the composition of both objects, Didymos and its satellite Dimorphos, the characterization of space weathering effects, and the possible presence of exogenous material on their surfaces. To monitor instrument functionality, calibration exposures are acquired regularly. This article describes the in-flight calibrations carried out for HyperScout-H during the commissioning and cruise phases. Bias and dark exposures, as well as stellar field observations, were acquired several times after launch. We update the calibration data and monitor instrument performance in the space environment. In addition, images of Earth and Moon were acquired from distances of 1.5 × 10 6 to 2.0 × 10 6 km, and Mars and its satellite were imaged during the flyby. In five images, the surface of Mars fills the entire field of view, enabling cross-validation of HyperScout-H results with those reported by other Mars missions. We characterize the detector under in-flight operational conditions. The calibration data indicate that the bias pattern is stable, the dark current remains negligible for short exposures, and the detector response is highly linear. We quantify the field-of-view alignment and geometric distortion, and evaluate the point spread function based on the stellar field observations. Stellar observations and Mars swing-by data provide updated radiometric calibration constants, suggesting that in-flight conditions have slightly modified the detector’s spectral response. In-flight calibrations are essential to ensure data quality and reliability.

Image Processing

Artemis I Space Launch System Base Heat Shield Thermal Protection System Performance

The Space Launch System (SLS) Core Stage base heat shield experienced the highest external heating environments on the entire launch vehicle during Artemis I ascent flight. This result was consistent with design predictions. The base heat shield experiences P50 cork combustion dynamics at low altitudes, plume-induced recirculation at moderate altitudes and then in-space base flow physics out to Main Engine Cut-Off (MECO). The base heat shield thermal protection system (TPS) is composed of a P50 cork ablator which is bonded to a substrate. The heat shield protects the gimbal actuation system, RS-25 turbomachinery systems and other aft section sensitive components during ascent. This paper estimates the base heat shield TPS performance from Artemis I using flight data from the NASA Langley Research Center’s Scientifically Calibrated In-Flight Imagery (SCIFLI) Airborne Multispectral Imager (SAMI), development flight instrumentation (DFI) and other TPS recession flight measurements. Predictions from computational and ground test-derived engineering ablation models and observations are also applied. Since no base heat shield substrate thermocouple data were obtained for Artemis I, an estimate of the TPS performance data is derived here. This data assesses thermal margin of the SLS Core Stage base heat shield and best informs the Artemis II Crewed mission to the moon.

aerothermodynamics

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

A Comparison of Doppler Lidar Wind Sensors for Earth-Orbit Global Measurement Applications

Now, there are four Doppler lidar configurations which are being promoted for the measurement of tropospheric winds: (1) the coherent CO2 Lidar, operating in the 9 micrometer region using a pulsed, atmospheric pressure CO2 gas discharge laser transmitter, and heterodyne detection; (2) the coherent Neodymium doped YAG or Glass Lidar, operating at 1.06 micrometers, using flashlamp or diode laser optical pumping of the solid state laser medium, and heterodyne detection; (3) the Neodymium doped YAG/Glass Lidar, operating at the doubled frequency (at 530 nm wavelength), again using flashlamp or diode laser pumping of the laser transmitter, and using a high resolution tandem Fabry-Perot filter and direct detection; and (4) the Raman shifted Xenon Chloride Lidar, operating at 350 nm wavelength, using a pulsed, atmospheric pressure XeCl gas discharge laser transmitter at 308 nm, Raman shifted in a high pressure hydrogen cell to 350 nm in order to avoid strong stratospheric ozone absorption, also using a high resolution tandem Fabry-Perot filter and direct detection. Comparisons of these four systems can include many factors and tradeoffs. The major portion of this comparison is devoted to efficiency. Efficiency comparisons are made by estimating the number of transmitted photons required for a single pulse wind velocity estimate of + or - 1 m/s accuracy in the middle troposphere, from an altitude of 800 km, which is assured to be reasonable for a polar orbiting platform.

Robert T Menzies

The Effect of Gravity on the Combustion Synthesis of Porous Ceramics and Metal Matrix Composites

Combustion synthesis (self propagating, high temperature synthesis-SHS) is a novel technique that is capable of producing many advanced materials. The ignition temperature (Tig) of such combustion synthesis reactions is often coincident with that of the lowest melting point reactant. The resultant liquid metal wets and spreads around the other solid reactant particles of higher melting points, thereby improving the reactant contact and kinetics, followed by formation of the required compounds. This ignition initiates a combustion propagating wave whose narrow reaction front rapidly travels through the reactants. Since this process is highly exothermic, the heat released by combustion often melts the reactant particles ahead of the combustion front and ignites the adjacent reactant layer, resulting in a self-sustaining reaction. Whenever a fluid phase (liquid or gas) is generated by the reaction system, gravity-driven phenomena can occur. Such phenomena include convective flows of fluid by conventional or unstable convection and settling of the higher density phases. A combustion process is often associated with various kinds of fluid flow. For instance, if the SHS reaction is carried out under inert or reactive gas atmospheres, or a volatile, e.g., B2O3, is deliberately introduced as a reactant, convective flows of the gas will occur due to a temperature gradient existing in the atmosphere when a combustion wave is initiated. The increased gas flow will produce a porous (or expanded) SHS product. Owing to the highly exothermic nature of many SHS reactions, liquid phase(s) can also form before, at, or after the combustion front. The huge temperature gradient at the combustion front can induce convective flows (conventional or unstable) of the liquid phase. Each of these types of convective fluid flow can change the combustion behavior of the synthesizing reaction, and, therefore, the resultant product microstructure. In addition, when two or more phases of different density are produced at or ahead of the propagating combustion front settling of the higher density phase will occur resulting in a non-uniform product microstructure and properties.

J J Moore

Tracing U.S. fuel life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions in a multi-sector dynamics model using LC-GCAM

Model-based analysis of fuel pathways is essential for informing energy and environmental policy. Two major model types are typically used: multi-sector dynamics models, which capture the broader energy-economy, such as GCAM (Global Change Analysis Model), and life cycle assessment models, such as GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation). Each has distinct strengths and limitations, and recent studies increasingly adopt hybrid approaches to harness the advantages of both. However, such integration is often time-consuming and complicated by inconsistencies in system boundaries and technology definitions. We present LC-GCAM, a new tool that enables estimation of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy use for any fuel pathway represented in GCAM. We apply LC-GCAM to 300 scenarios designed to explore key uncertainties affecting the life-cycle performance of future fuel options in the U.S. freight sector. To evaluate LC-GCAM, we compare its results with those from GREET for nine fuel types in a 2030 reference scenario. When input assumptions are modestly aligned, LC-GCAM and GREET estimates typically agree within 10% (absolute sum-based mean absolute percentage error). LC-GCAM offers a flexible and efficient approach to generating life-cycle metrics within an integrated modeling framework, supporting robust policy analysis across a wide range of interacting energy system uncertainties.

Wolfram, Paul

Polynomial-time preparation of low-temperature Gibbs states for two-dimensional toric code

In this work, we propose a polynomial-time algorithm for preparing the Gibbs state of the two-dimensional toric code Hamiltonian at any temperature, starting from any initial state, significantly improving upon prior estimates that suggested exponential scaling with inverse temperature. We prove that fast mixing at low temperature for the two-dimensional toric code can be achieved by augmenting local jump operators with simple global jump operators, which enable efficient transitions between logical sectors. To establish tight lower bounds on the spectral gap, we introduce a new reduction method that eventually maps the problem to estimating the spectral gap of a perturbed graph Laplacian on a stair graph. Our proof also shows that the Lindblad dynamics with a digitally implemented low-temperature local Davies generator is able to efficiently drive the quantum state toward the ground state manifold.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning

The brighter-fatter effect in the JWST MIRI Si:As IBC detectors: I. Observations, impact on science, and modeling

Context.The Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) on board theJames WebbSpace Telescope (JWST) uses three Si:As impurity band conduction (IBC) detector arrays. The output voltage level of each MIRI detector pixel is digitally recorded by sampling up the ramp. For uniform or low-contrast illumination, the pixel ramps become nonlinear in a predictable way, but in areas of high contrast, the nonlinearity curve becomes much more complex. The origin of the effect is poorly understood and currently not calibrated out of the data. Aims.We provide observational evidence of the brighter-fatter effect (BFE) in MIRI conventional and high-contrast coronagraphic imaging, low-resolution spectroscopy, and medium-resolution spectroscopy data, and we investigate the physical mechanism that gives rise to the effect on the MIRI detector pixel raw voltage integration ramps. Methods.We used public data from the JWST/MIRI commissioning and Cycle 1 phase. We also developed a numerical electrostatic model of the MIRI detectors using a modified version of the publicPoisson_CCDcode. Results.We find that the physical mechanism behind the BFE manifesting in MIRI data is fundamentally different to that of charge-coupled devices and photodiode arrays such as the Hawaii-XRG near-infrared detectors used by the NIRISS, NIRCam, and NIRSpec instruments on board JWST. Observationally, the BFE makes the JWST MIRI data yield 10–25% larger point sources and spectral line profiles as a function of the relative level of de-biasing of neighboring detector pixels. This broadening impacts the MIRI absolute flux calibration, time-series observations of faint companions, and point spread function modeling and subtraction. We also find that the intra-pixel 2D profile of the shrinking Si:As IBC detector depletion region directly impacts the accuracy of the pixel ramp nonlinearity calibration model.

Astronomy & Astrophysics

Quantum Filtering and Analysis of Multiplicities in Eigenvalue Spectra

Fine-grained spectral properties of quantum Hamiltonians, including both eigenvalues and their multiplicities, provide useful information for characterizing many-body quantum systems as well as for understanding phenomena such as topological order. Extracting such information with small additive error is #BQP-complete in the worst case. In this work, we introduce QFAMES (quantum filtering and analysis of multiplicities in eigenvalue spectra), a quantum algorithm that efficiently identifies clusters of closely spaced dominant eigenvalues and determines their multiplicities under physically motivated assumptions, which allows us to bypass worst-case complexity barriers. QFAMES also enables the estimation of observable expectation values within targeted energy clusters, providing a powerful tool for studying quantum phase transitions and other physical properties. We validate the effectiveness of QFAMES through numerical demonstrations, including its applications to characterizing quantum phases in the transverse-field Ising model and estimating the ground-state degeneracy of a topologically ordered phase in the two-dimensional toric code model. We also generalize QFAMES to the setting of mixed initial states. Our approach offers rigorous theoretical guarantees and significant advantages over existing subspace-based quantum spectral analysis methods, particularly in terms of the sample complexity and the ability to resolve degeneracies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Emergence of Complex Modes in Lightly Damped Structural Systems

In this short presentation format, we will provide a set of useful equations, relationships, and physical interpretations direct from the damped two-mode interaction problem. We will demonstrate that the results from the two-mode interaction problem are in direct agreement with observed test data. Practical methods for estimating the parameters driving the relations direct from modal test data are provided. We finalize with two examples demonstrating weak and strong interactions.

spaceflight hardware