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At least 109 records · Page 6

Oceanus: A High Science Return Uranus Orbiter with a Low-Cost Instrument Suite

Ice-giant-sized planets are the most common type of observed exoplanet, yet the two ice giants in our own solar system (Uranus and Neptune) are the least explored class of planet, having only been observed through ground-based observations and a single flyby each by Voyager 2 approximately 30 years ago. These single flybys were unable to characterize the spatial and temporal variability in ice giant magnetospheres, some of the most odd and intriguing magnetospheres in the solar system. They also offered only limited constraints on the internal structure of ice giants; understanding the internal structure of a planet is important for understanding its formation and evolution. The most recent planetary science Decadal Survey by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, ''Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022,'' identified the ice giant Uranus as the third highest priority for a Flagship mission in the decade 2013-2022. However, in the event that NASA or another space agency is unable to fly a Flagship-class mission to an ice giant in the next decade, this paper presents a mission concept for a focused, lower cost Uranus orbiter called OCEANUS (Origins and Composition of the Exoplanet Analog Uranus System). OCEANUS would increase our understanding of the interior structure of Uranus, its magnetosphere, and how its magnetic field is generated. These goals could be achieved with just a magnetometer and the spacecraft's radio system. This study shows that several of the objectives outlined by the Decadal Survey, including one of the two identified as highest priority, are within reach for a New-Frontiers-class mission.

Elder, C. M.↗

Adaptations of Guidance, Navigation and Control Verification and Validation Philosophies for Small Spacecraft

Decades of experience developing increasingly capable and more complex space-craft have resulted in a set of accepted practices and philosophies to verify and validate (V&V) guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) subsystems. Until recently, small, low-cost spacecraft have had very simple or non-existent GN&C subsystems requiring minimal or no subsystem testing. As the next generation of small spacecraft take on more challenging GN&C requirements, the GN&C community is struggling with how to scale the subsystem V&V effort to produce spacecraft approaching the reliability of flagship-class missions while staying within the reduced resources of a small satellite project. For this paper, we will examine five aspects of GN&C V&V (requirements definition, software testing and analysis, hardware component testing, integrated vehicle testing, and in-flight V&V) and compare the V&V campaign of a flagship-class mission (Mars 2020) to that of two recent, successful CubeSat missions: ASTERIA and MarCO. Experiences from the development of these CubeSats yield valuable lessons learned and guidelines for future small spacecraft designers.

Pong, Christopher M.↗

Adaptations of guidance, navigation, and control verification and validation philosophies for small spacecraft

Decades of experience developing increasingly capable and more complex space-craft have resulted in a set of accepted practices and philosophies to verify and validate (V&V) guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) subsystems. Until recently, small, low-cost spacecraft have had very simple or non-existent GN&C subsystems requiring minimal or no subsystem testing. As the next generation of small spacecraft take on more challenging GN&C requirements, the GN&C community is struggling with how to scale the subsystem V&V effort to produce spacecraft approaching the reliability of flagship-class missions while staying within the reduced resources of a small satellite project.For this paper, we will examine five aspects of GN&C V&V (requirements definition, software testing and analysis, hardware component testing, integrated vehicle testing, and in-flight V&V) and compare the V&V campaign of a flagship-class mission (Mars 2020) to that of two recent, successful CubeSat missions: ASTERIA and MarCO. Experiences from the development of these CubeSats yield valuable lessons learned and guidelines for future small spacecraft designers.

Chen, George T.↗

The PIAA-Vortex Coronagraph: A New Coronagraph Technology to Maximize Exo-Earth Yields in the Astro2020 Era

Detecting and characterizing the atmospheres of terrestrial exoplanets is a main goal of the IR/O/UV flagship mission recommended by the Astro2020 Report. Achieving this goal depends critically on developing coronagraph technology that maximizes the potential number of terrestrial exoplanets we predict we can characterize, i.e. the exoEarth yield. Stringent constraints on low-order aberration sensitivity, inner working angle, and throughput as a function of telescope pupil complexity have been one of the main limiting factors affecting the yield of coronagraphs, and is a driving factor for telescope design considerations such as whether to use an off-axis or on-axis architecture. We present a hybrid PIAA-Vortex coronagraph concept that relaxes many of these constraints, and makes on-axis telescopes with centrally obstructed pupils a viable region of the design trade-space for the IR/O/UV flagship. Using the LUVOIR-A pupil as a baseline to design around, we present a coronagraph architecture with a small, ~2.5 lambda/D working angle that is insensitive to tip/tilt aberrations and stellar angular diameters on the order of 0.1 lambda/D. Pupil-plane apodization is achieved with PIAA-style mirror apodizations we obtain using a formalism we have developed to simultaneously optimize the contrast and low-order aberration sensitivity of coronagraphs designed for arbitrary telescope pupils and dark-hole geometries. By using PIAA to apodize in the pupil plane, the PIAA-Vortex coronagraph mitigates the trade-off between planet throughput, IWA, and aberration sensitivity, resulting in significantly higher yields for coronagraphs on obstructed pupils and new opportunities to maximize our ability to detect biomarkers in the Astro2020 era.

Kevin Fogarty↗

Astrophysics Strategic Technology Gaps Following the 2020 Decadal Survey

The Decadal Survey on Astronomy and Astrophysics 2020, "Pathways to Discovery in Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 2020s," recommended a suite of compelling missions, including a 6m-class IR/Optical/UV observatory for exoplanet characterization and general astrophysics studies, a far-IR flagship, an X-ray flagship, and three Probe missions. The proposed launch dates for these are: Early 2030s for the first Probe (X-ray or far-IR) Early 2040s for the next Probe (CMB or the one not launched before) Mid-2040s for the IR/O/UV Great Observatory The following decade(s) for the far-IR and X-ray Great Observatories. Such missions require technologies that far exceed today's state of the art. To begin developing and maturing technologies that enable and enhance such missions, NASA established the Strategic Astrophysics Technology (SAT) program. Where needed, direct-funded projects may supplement the SAT program.

PCOS COR ExEP Astro2020 technology gaps↗

Laboratory Demonstration of High Contrast with the PIAACMC Coronagraph on an Obstructed and Segmented Aperture

Coronagraphs (together with starshades) are an important tool to directly image and characterize exoplanets, and enable the search for biomarkers in reflected light on potentially habitable worlds. Their performance and efficiency has steadily been improving over the past several decades, but has not yet reached performance limits. In particular, the expected exoplanet yield for missions such as the Astro2020-recommended “IR/O/UV Flagship” can still be improved by factors of at least 2-3, simply by continued improvements in coronagraph performance, before they plateau due to physics limits. One possible architecture that can enable at least a part of this improvement is the Phase-Induced Amplitude Apodization Complex Mask Coronagraph (PIAACMC). Itoffersthe advantages of high throughput, small inner working angle (IWA),and almost noloss inPSF sharpness, and natively supports obstructed and segmented apertures, which is essential to the Astro2020 “IR/O/UV Flagship”mission. Historically, key disadvantages of PIAA have been poor tolerance to stellar angular sizes and maturity, but latest designs and demonstrations have made significant strides in this respect.In this paper, we present the current status and overview of our program to mature the PIAACMC technology. We first review PIAACMC designs for LUVOIR-A and B, which resultedin improved expected yield of Exo-Earths relative tothe baselines for both mission concepts. In particular, for LUVOIR-B, the yield improves from 28 to 42due to improvedtolerance to stellar angular size in our design. The improvement in yield is marginal for LUVOIR-A, but our design enables detecting planets around smaller diameter stars (nearby K-dwarfs and/or farther FG stars). We also describe our modeling and vacuum demonstrationsfor the LUVOIR-A aperture(which is more challengingthan LUVOIR-B due to the central obstruction).The demonstration included a LUVOUR-A pupil mask, an on-axis PIAA set of 2 mirrors with central holes, a Boston Micromachines DM, a patterned CMC mask, Lyot stop, and supporting masks and optics. Demonstrations were conducted at JPL’s High Contrast Imaging Testbed (HCIT) using several characterization andwavefront control techniques (primarily standard EFC, several experimental techniques were attempted, as well as speckle nulling). So far, our results include 1.9e-8 raw contrast in 10% broadband light between 3.5 and 8 l/D; 4.1e-8 and 1.6e-9 coherent contrasts in monochromatic light between 2-4 and 4-8 l/D, respectively. We also present measurements and analysis of sensitivity to tip/tilt jitter and stellar angular size. Finally, we compare our test results to models, present an analysis of our limiting factors, and explorefuture prospectsfor improvement based on validated models.

Coronagraph↗

Ultraviolet Astronomy in the XXI Century

The US 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey (Astro2020) has recommended NASA develop the first observatory designed to search for signs of life on exoplanets and enable transformative astrophysics. These ambitious goals demand a large and highly capable space telescope with broad wavelength coverage from the far-UV to the near-IR, in the tradition of the Hubble Space Telescope. Realizing this vision will require aggressive technology development — as well as respect for and careful balancing of the needs of many scientific communities. In this talk, I will review the Decadal recommendations, including the development approach and timeline envisioned for the recommended UV/O/IR flagship. The LUVOIR and HabEx pre-Decadal mission concepts that fed into that flagship will also be reviewed. Finally, I’ll highlight some key technical considerations for the future UV/O/IR Great Observatory.

Aki Roberge↗

Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (Heeet) and 3D Woven TPS Readiness for Outer Planet Probe Missions

Recent mission studies have shown entry at Uranus or at Neptune will require 3-D Woven TPS, either the two-layer HEEET or the single layer 3MDCP, with 3MDCP being more mass efficient. The 3MDCP capability being developed to support MSR EES is sufficient for the Ice Giants if the probe size is 1.25 m or less. [The Uranus Orbiter Probe (UOP) Flagship study for the Decadal used a 1.26m diameter probe.] For larger diameters, dual layer HEEET is easily scalable and is already at TRL 6. It is possible to develop a seam approach that would allow the use of 3MDCP; the resultant mass savings could warrant such a development. Ames is already working on a concept towards this. If aerocapture becomes part of the mission design for Uranus, delivery of the probe from orbit will be easier. Whether or not the probe is delivered from orbit, 3-D Woven (HEEET or 3MDCP) is the only TPS qualified to enable Ice Giant in situ probes. In addition to UOP, Saturn probe mission concepts will be enabled by 3-D Woven, either HEEET or 3MDCP. Launch periods for the UOP flagship or a Saturn probe mission in the early to mid 2030s requires the community to ensure that the 3D woven capability does not atrophy. Currently other than MSR EES, no other mission requires 3-D wovens, and the manufacturing for MSR will be completed by 2023. A gap in production of 5 or more years requires careful monitoring of the industrial base. In addition, manufacturing of 3-D woven TPS, from procurement and weaving to molding and infusion, is a minimum 2-year activity. In response to the threat of atrophy and the time critical and intensive nature of restarting weaving, advocacy from OPAG to NASA SMD for a sustainability effort would ensure in situ exploration of the outer planets in the decades to come.

M Gasch↗

Multi-Star Wavefront Control at the Occulting Mask Coronagraph Testbed: Monochromatic Laboratory Demonstration for the Roman Coronagraph Instrument

The Astro2020 decadal survey recommended a direct imaging flagship mission with a goal for mission yield of 25 or more potentially habitable exoplanets. A majority of Sun-like stars have a stellar companion that can introduce additional noise into the field of view of any high-contrast imaging instrument and enabling exoplanet discovery around binary stars represents a path to increased coronagraphic instrument efficiency. This includes both of the Alpha Centauri A and B stars which would represent the top science target for direct imaging if companion leakage can be suppressed. Multi-Star Wavefront Control (MSWC) is a technique that removes stellar leakage from both stellar components, enabling direct imaging of exoplanets in many binary star systems. We present the latest testbed results obtained with MSWC as part of the technology development effort focusing on demonstrations conducted on the Occulting Mask Coronagraph (OMC) testbed at JPL. OMC has a layout similar to the Roman Space Telescope coronagraph instrument (CGI) and is outfitted with a MSWC mask with the same design as the contributed mask for the Roman CGI. Our testbed results represent the first demonstrations of this technique using the recently installed full binary source for a geometry matching potential Alpha Centauri observations. Technical Review Abstract: The Astro2020 decadal survey recommended a direct imaging flagship mission with a goal for mission yield of 25 or more potentially habitable exoplanets. A majority of Sun-like stars have a stellar companion that can introduce additional noise into the field of view of any high-contrast imaging instrument and enabling exoplanet discovery around binary stars represents a path to increased coronagraphic instrument efficiency by increasing the available science target pool of bright nearby stars. This includes both of the Alpha Centauri A and B stars which would represent the top science target for direct imaging if companion leakage can be suppressed. Multi-Star Wavefront Control (MSWC) is a technique that removes stellar leakage from both stellar components, enabling direct imaging of exoplanets in many binary star systems . We present the latest testbed results obtained with MSWC as part of the technology development effort focusing on demonstrations conducted on the Occulting Mask Coronagraph (OMC) testbed at JPL during the completed first vacuum window and recent results from the ongoing second vacuum window. The MSWC mask consists of a shaped pupil mask similar to the one used for the Wide-Field of View mode but also includes a set of superimposed, regularly-spaced dots that serve as a diffraction grating. OMC has a layout similar to the Roman Space Telescope coronagraph instrument (CGI) and is configured with a binary imaging mode with a MSWC mask using same design as the contributed mask for the Roman CGI. Our testbed results represent the first demonstrations of this technique using the recently installed full binary source. We present results obtained in Super-Nyquist regime demonstrating suppression in the Super-Nyquist regime for the 3rd diffraction order reaching 8.7e-9 contrast with the Roman pupil. In addition, we present results obtained with the binary-star regime demonstrating 9.6e-8 contrast for a geometry matching potential Alpha Centauri observations in a monochromatic wavelength similar to Band 1. Planned demonstrations in the 2nd vacuum window will focus on Band 3d and Band 4 using the full MSWC mode for an Alpha Centauri geometry.

High-contrast imaging↗

Overview of Mars Sample Return – Earth Entry System Woven Roughness Heating Augmentation Test in NASA Langley’s Mach 6 Wind Tunnel

The Mars Sample Return Mission (MSR) is a planned NASA flagship mission in which a sample retrieval lander (SRL) with a rover will be flown to Mars to obtain sample tubes on the surface that were dropped by the Mars 2020 rover [1]. After obtaining the sam-ples, the rover will return and ascend back to Martian orbit onboard the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV). Upon return to Earth orbit, the samples will perform Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) with the Earth Entry Sys-tem (EES) architecture, and land in Utah. The EES vehicle will utilize a HEEET-variant as its TPS, which will be the first time a woven TPS will be used on a flagship NASA mission [2]. This TPS offers a unique challenge for Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling of the aerothermal envi-ronment of the vehicle, as woven roughness heating augmentation has not been extensively investigated experimentally. As a result, in order to validate com-putational models for woven roughness heating aug-mentation, a wind tunnel test campaign at NASA Langley Research Center’s Mach 6 wind tunnel was performed in April of 2023. This test campaign consisted of over a hundred runs with Reynolds numbers spanning from 1-7 mil-lion 1/ft and with six separate wind tunnel models used. A second campaign with a suite of new models will be conducted in Summer 2023 as well as a cam-paign with a flat plate model, both of which are of great interest to the MSR-EES project. The data obtained from this test are extremely vital for the MSR mission, as they will validate CFD roughness heating models which will be directly used to design the TPS of the EES portion of MSR and characterize the heating environment that the entry ve-hicle will experience. Further extensions of the MSR-EES test campaign will continue to provide validation data for developing more effective computational tools.

Jonathan Cheatwood↗

Aerodynamic Implications of Aerocapture Systems for Uranus Orbiters

Exploration of the Ice Giants, Uranus in particular, has been indicated as the highest priority new flagship-class mission by the 2022 Planetary Science Decadal Survey. However, due to it’s location in the solar system, extensive travel time and resources are required for a mission to reach Uranus. Aerocapture offers shorter interplanetary transit times and reduced propellant requirements for such a mission when compared to a traditional propulsive-capture orbiter. Considerations for the aerodynamics of an aerocapture system enabling flagship-class science mission to Uranus are presented. The applicability of a low lift-to-drag entry vehicle aeroshell with flight heritage to a new planet and atmosphere is evaluated. A preliminary aerodatabase is formulated from low-fidelity methods and heritage flight mission data to provide initial estimates of trajectory space to be considered for inserting a spacecraft into orbit at Uranus using aerocapture. Computational fluid dynamics calculations in the free molecular, transitional, and continuum regimes using Direct Simulation Monte Carlo and Navier-Stokes solutions are used to assess the validity of this preliminary aerodatabase. The considered entry vehicle is found to varying levels of agreement with work done by previous flight missions when evaluated for flight in Uranus’ atmosphere. Implications for the aerodynamics of this vehicle as applied in an aerocapture system in flight at Uranus as found by the current work are discussed.

Eli R. Shellabarger↗

Aerodynamic Implications of Aerocapture Systems for Uranus Orbiters

Exploration of the Ice Giants, Uranus in particular, has been indicated as the highest priority new flagship-class mission by the 2022 Planetary Science Decadal Survey. However, due to it's location in the solar system, extensive travel time and resources are required for a mission to reach Uranus. Aerocapture offers shorter interplanetary transit times and reduced propellant requirements for such a mission when compared to a traditional propulsive-capture orbiter. Considerations for the aerodynamics of an aerocapture system enabling flagship-class science mission to Uranus are presented. The applicability of a low lift-to-drag entry vehicle aeroshell with flight heritage to a new planet and atmosphere is evaluated. A preliminary aerodatabase is formulated from low-fidelity methods and heritage flight mission data to provide initial estimates of trajectory space to be considered for inserting a spacecraft into orbit at Uranus using aerocapture. Computational fluid dynamics calculations in the free molecular, transitional, and continuum regimes using Direct Simulation Monte Carlo and Navier-Stokes solutions are used to assess the validity of this preliminary aerodatabase. The considered entry vehicle is found to varying levels of agreement with work done by previous flight missions when evaluated for flight in Uranus' atmosphere. Implications for the aerodynamics of this vehicle as applied in an aerocapture system in flight at Uranus as found by the current work are discussed.

Uranus↗

TPS Technology Status on Enabling New Frontiers Sample Return Missions from Moon, Asteroids and Comets and Probe Missions to Saturn and Uranus

STMD and SMD investment in TPS technology development such as Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment (HEEET), 3-D woven Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP) and Conformal PICA over the past decade in response the the Decadal Committee Recommendation (2012). 3MDCP, a variant of HEEET, is baselined as the TPS for MSR, HEEET is enabling the Rocket Lab mission to Venus and Conformal PICA enabled VARDA as the heat shield TPS for their sample return capsule Winnebago-1. In the meantime, PICA, the TPS that enabled Stardust and OSIRIS-REx has atrophied. While these are success stories, upcoming NF-5/6 AO is anticipated to have multiple proposals that may be more demanding for sample return missions from Moon, Asteroids and Comets, and in addition probe missions to Saturn and UOP . This poster will address the state-of-the-art TPS for NF-5/6 in-situ and sample return missions, and for the UOP flagship mission. The poster will focus on steps that need to be taken to both advance and sustain NASA developed TPS and be ready to enable NF-5/6 and Flagship missions.

Todd White↗

Improvements to Thermal Protection System Design of Aerocapture Systems for Uranus Orbiters

The National Academies Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey identified Uranus and Neptune - called Ice Giants - as the priority destinations for science. The survey assessed both a mission to Uranus through the Uranus Orbiter and Probe (UOP) concept, and Neptune through the Neptune-Triton Odyssey concept and determined that Uranus is the highest priority for a Flagship class mission. The UOP mission concept planned to deliver an in situ probe and conduct a multi-year orbital tour of the system to meet the science objectives. While the Uranus mission is currently viable with launch windows starting in 2031 using existing launch vehicles, the mission has a cruise phase of at least 12 years and would require more than half of its weight in fuel propellant to achieve the change in velocity necessary for orbital insertion. Aerocapture uses aerodynamic forces generated on a vehicle by the planet's atmosphere to modulate a spacecraft's trajectory, decreasing spacecraft velocity, and allowing mission designers to target the final orbital state. Aerocapture reduces the time-of-flight from Earth to Uranus over a fully propulsive solution, opening up more launch opportunities to arrive in the 2040's to the mission's science objectives. Aerocapture also allows a payload mass increase by mitigating the need for fuel to retropropulsively insert the payload into orbit, thereby increase the science that can be performed. For an aerocapture mission structure using a traditional aeroshell to deliver the UOP scientific payload to Uranus, Conformal Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (C-PICA) was determined to be the best-performing forebody thermal protection system (TPS) and other candidate aftbody TPS options were presented as feasible. This paper focuses on A) evaluating C-PICA as a forebody TPS using stressing entry conditions associated with a large range of potential Uranus flagship launch vehicles and interplanetary trajectories, B) widening the aftbody TPS candidates for new mass-efficient and cost-efficient solutions, and C) a summary list of actions remaining to provide a technically feasible and supply-robust set of TPS for an aerocapture vehicle to the Ice Giants is presented.

C-PICA↗

Improvements to Thermal Protection System Design of Aerocapture Systems for Uranus Orbiters

The National Academies Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey identified Uranus and Neptune - called Ice Giants - as the priority destinations for science. The survey assessed both a mission to Uranus through the Uranus Orbiter and Probe (UOP) concept, and Neptune through the Neptune-Triton Odyssey concept and determined that Uranus is the highest priority for a Flagship class mission. The UOP mission concept planned to deliver an in situ probe and conduct a multi-year orbital tour of the system to meet the science objectives. While the Uranus mission is currently viable with launch windows starting in 2031 using existing launch vehicles, the mission has a cruise phase of at least 12 years and would require more than half of its weight in fuel propellant to achieve the change in velocity necessary for orbital insertion. Aerocapture uses aerodynamic forces generated on a vehicle by the planet's atmosphere to modulate a spacecraft's trajectory, decreasing spacecraft velocity, and allowing mission designers to target the final orbital state. Aerocapture reduces the time-of-flight from Earth to Uranus over a fully propulsive solution, opening up more launch opportunities to arrive in the 2040's to the mission's science objectives. Aerocapture also allows a payload mass increase by mitigating the need for fuel to retropropulsively insert the payload into orbit, thereby increase the science that can be performed. For an aerocapture mission structure using a traditional aeroshell to deliver the UOP scientific payload to Uranus, Conformal Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (C-PICA) was determined to be the best-performing forebody thermal protection system (TPS) and other candidate aftbody TPS options were presented as feasible. This paper focuses on A) evaluating C-PICA as a forebody TPS using stressing entry conditions associated with a large range of potential Uranus flagship launch vehicles and interplanetary trajectories, B) widening the aftbody TPS candidates for new mass-efficient and cost-efficient solutions, and C) a summary list of actions remaining to provide a technically feasible and supply-robust set of TPS for an aerocapture vehicle to the Ice Giants is presented.

C-PICA↗

Qualification of Spacecraft Materials for use in Harsh Radiation Environments

This slide presentation reviews the concerns regarding qualifiying materials used in spacecraft construction for harsh radiation environments, defined as a high flux charged particle environment in space. This environment consists of high surface doses at low energy and low doses at high energies. The concept phase of the Europa Flagship mission is used as an example.

Europa Flagship Mission↗

Expected sensitivity of the Light Dark Matter eXperiment to long-lived dark photons and axion-like particles

The Light Dark Matter eXperiment (LDMX) is an electron-beam fixed-target experiment primarily designed to achieve world-leading, model-independent sensitivity to sub-GeV dark matter particles. LDMX aims to identify dark sector particle production through the detection of events with substantial missing energy and momentum, a signature of invisible particles escaping detection. Beyond this primary objective, LDMX offers a complementary search strategy for long-lived, visibly decaying particles, such as dark photons and axion-like particles. We present the first detailed evaluation of the ability of LDMX to identify visibly decaying, long-lived particles that couple to electrons using a detailed simulation, based on the Geant 4-toolkit, that incorporates realistic detection efficiencies and background levels. We demonstrate that LDMX can achieve a sensitivity that is competitive with other experiments that are currently running. The models explored in this paper are distinct and complementary to those probed in the LDMX flagship missing-momentum analysis. Through searching for both invisible dark matter and visibly decaying long-lived signatures, LDMX will significantly advance the search for light dark matter and provide a broad exploration of the sub-GeV dark sector.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

Akesson, Torsten [Lund U.] (ORCID:0000000341415408↗

The first ensemble of kilometer-scale simulations of a hydrological year over the third pole

An accurate understanding of the current and future water cycle over the Third Pole is of great societal importance, given the role this region plays as a water tower for densely populated areas downstream. An emerging and promising approach for skillful climate assessments over regions of complex terrain is kilometer-scale climate modeling. As a foundational step towards such simulations over the Third Pole, we present a multi-model and multi-physics ensemble of kilometer-scale regional simulations for the hydrological year of October 2019 to September 2020. The ensemble consists of 13 simulations performed by an international consortium of 10 research groups, configured with a horizontal grid spacing ranging from 2.2 to 4 km covering all of the Third Pole region. These simulations are driven by ERA5 and are part of a Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment Flagship Pilot Study on Convection-Permitting Third Pole. The simulations are compared against available gridded and in-situ observations and remote-sensing data, to assess the performance and spread of the model ensemble compared to the driving reanalysis during the cold and warm seasons. Although ensemble evaluation is hindered by large differences between the gridded precipitation datasets used as a reference over this region, we show that the ensemble improves on many warm-season precipitation metrics compared with ERA5, including most wet-day and hour statistics, and also adds value in the representation of wet spells in both seasons. As such, the ensemble will provide an invaluable resource for future improvements in the process understanding of the hydroclimate of this remote but important region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗