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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Understanding Plant Nitrogen Form Preference Responses to Elevated CO2 Earth and Spaceflight Cabin Environments.

Future long-duration missions to the International Space Station (ISS) and beyond will require a sustainable supply of food to support human crews. The spaceflight cabin environment often contains very high concentrations of CO2, and it is therefore crucial to understand plant responses to elevated CO2 (eCO2) environments. Much focus has been given to plant photosynthetic and performance parameters in response to eCO2, but studies on the effects of eCO2 on nitrogen uptake are poorly understood. Our previous work at The University of Sheffield, UK using novel stable isotope approaches has shown enhanced ammonium uptake and preference compared to nitrate at eCO2 in varieties of spring barley, hypothesised to be an indirect consequence of changes in photosynthesis and photorespiration. However, several varieties did not display altered preference under eCO2 and the universality of this response remains to be understood. In this NASA NPP project, several candidate crop species such as lettuce, radish and tomato will be screened using stable isotopes to assess whether N preference changes in favor of ammonium in response to eCO2 and whether this remains true at super-elevated CO2 (seCO2), which is often experienced on the ISS. Photosynthetic and related measurements will help to disentangle the relationship between these responses and photosynthesis. This work will enable the development of optimized nutrient regimes for candidate crops in space and in future Lunar and Martian habitats and will pave the way for selection of crop varieties adapted to an eCO2 and/or seCO2 environment. Moreover, this research will further our understanding of plant responses to the eCO2 environment brought about by climate change, allowing the development of future-proof crops that will help to maintain food security. This NPP Fellowship is funded by NASA Space Biology.

space plant biology↗
NASA NTRS2020

Fusion Approach for Remotely-Sensed Mapping of Agriculture (FARMA): A Scalable Open Source Method for Land Cover Monitoring Using Data Fusion

The increasing availability of very-high resolution (VHR; <2 m) imagery has the potential to enable agricultural monitoring at increased resolution and cadence, particularly when used in combination with widely available moderate-resolution imagery. However, scaling limitations exist at the regional level due to big data volumes and processing constraints. Here, we demonstrate the Fusion Approach for Remotely-Sensed Mapping of Agriculture (FARMA), using a suite of open source software capable of efficiently characterizing time-series field-scale statistics across large geographical areas at VHR resolution. We provide distinct implementation examples in Vietnam and Senegal to demonstrate the approach using WorldView VHR optical, Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar, and Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3 optical imagery. This distributed software is open source and entirely scalable, enabling large area mapping even with modest computing power. FARMA provides the ability to extract and monitor sub-hectare fields with multisensor raster signals, which previously could only be achieved at scale with large computational resources. Implementing FARMA could enhance predictive yield models by delineating boundaries and tracking productivity of smallholder fields, enabling more precise food security observations in low and lower-middle income countries.

fusion↗
NASA NTRS2020

Agriculture's Historic Twin-Challenge Toward Sustainable Water Use and Food Supply for All

A sustainable and just future, envisioned by the UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, puts agricultural systems under a heavy strain. The century-old quandary to provide ever-growing human populations with sufficient food takes on a new dimension with the recognition of environmental limits for agricultural resource use. To highlight challenges and opportunities toward sustainable food security in the twenty first century, this perspective paper provides a historical account of the escalating pressures on agriculture and freshwater resources alike, supported by new quantitative estimates of the ascent of excessive human water use. As the transformation of global farming into sustainable forms is unattainable without a revolution in agricultural water use, water saving and food production potentials are put into perspective with targets outlined by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The literature body and here-confirmed global estimates of untapped opportunities in farm water management indicate that these measures could sustainably intensify today's farming systems at scale. While rigorous implementation of sustainable water withdrawals (SDG 6.4) might impinge upon 5% of global food production, scaling-up water interventions in rainfed and irrigated systems could over-compensate such losses and further increase global production by 30% compared to the current situation (SDG 2.3). Without relying on future technological fixes, traditional on-farm water and soil management provides key strategies associated with important synergies that needs better integration into agro-ecological landscape approaches. Integrated strategies for sustainable intensification of agriculture within planetary boundaries are a potential way to attain several SDGs, but they are not yet receiving attention from high-level development policies.

sustainable development goals↗
NASA NTRS2021

Global Methane Assessment: Benefits and Costs of Mitigating Methane Emissions

The assessment highlights the critical role that cutting methane emissions, including from the fossil fuel industry, plays in slowing the rate of global warming. Cutting human-caused methane by 45% this decade would keep warming beneath a threshold agreed by world leaders. There are multiple benefits to acting including: the rapid reduction of warming, which can help prevent dangerous climate tipping points; improved air quality that can save hundreds of thousands of lives; improve food security by preventing crop losses; and create jobs through mitigation efforts while increasing productivity through reduced heat stress.

Methane↗
NASA NTRS2020

Data Science for Weather Impacts on Crop Yield

Private businesses in sectors, such as food, energy, and retail, as well as public sector and federal agencies are interested in the predictive understanding of weather impacts on crop yield, which is an important aspect of food security. Scientific literature has mainly examined how crop yield is impacted by growing season-averaged weather indices. Although a few studies did consider weather extremes in their analysis, their scope was either restricted to measuring their conditional relationship with yield or the extreme event types considered were limited. Selection of regression models, whether the more commonly used linear approaches or nonlinear methods, have not been appropriately justified in this context. Here, we develop data-driven methods to examine two inter-related hypotheses for improved scientific understanding and enhanced predictive modeling. The first hypothesis, that extreme weather indices have a statistically significant information content in them is found to be valid based on linear and nonlinear methods for pairwise dependence. The second hypothesis, examines the value addition of nonlinear regression methods, and suggests that linear approaches may not alone be adequate. The results of this study can inform scientific understanding, generation and relevance of indices and end-to-end risk assessment systems in the context of climate impacts on crop yield. An immediate application may be in the context of NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) which facilitates the generation and dissemination of impacts relevant weather data and indices using a multitude of satellite-derived data sets and model outputs.

Data mining, food security, weather impacts↗
NASA NTRS2022

Global Gridded Crop Models Underestimate Yield Responses to Droughts and Heatwaves

Extreme events can lead to crop yield declines, resulting in financial losses and threats to food security, and the frequency and intensity of such events is projected to increase. As global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on agricultural yields, there is a need to understand whether these models are able to reproduce the observed yield declines. We evaluated 13 GGCMs from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and compared observed and simulated impact of past droughts and heatwaves on yields for four crops (maize, rice, soy, wheat). We found that most models detect but underestimate the impact of droughts and heatwaves on yield. Specifically, the drought signal was detected by 12 of 13 models for maize and all models for wheat, while the heat signal was detected by eleven models for maize and six models for wheat. To investigate whether the difference between simulated and observed yield declines is due to a misrepresentation of simulated exposure to heat or water scarcity (i.e. misrepresentation of growing season), we analysed the relationship between average discrepancies between observed and simulated yield losses, and average simulated exposure to extreme weather conditions across all crop models. We found a positive correlation between simulated exposure to heat and model performance for heatwaves, but found no correlation for droughts. This suggests that there is a systematic underestimation of yield responses to heat and drought and not only a misrepresentation of exposure. Assuming that performance for the past indicates models' capacity to project future yield impacts, models likely underestimate future yield decline from climate change. High-quality temporally and spatially resolved observational data on growing seasons will be highly valuable to further improve crop models' capacity to adequately respond to extreme weather events.

extreme events↗
NASA NTRS2015

Susceptibility of South Korea to Extremes Affecting the Global Food System

Food security in South Korea is tightly linked to the global food system. The country's production of major grains declined from 5.8 million metric tons (mmt) in 1998 to 4.8 mmt in 2014, which caused the country's grain self suciency to decline from 31.4% to 24%. This decline is a consequence of several factors including reductions in domestic agricultural land, governmental policies supporting industry over agriculture, and a push towards trade liberalization. South Korea's self suciency is now one of the lowest among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, leaving it vulnerable to disruptions in the global food system.

Agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2009

Exploring Connections between Global Climate Indices and African Vegetation Phenology

Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the continent in Africa. Agriculturally destructive droughts and floods are monitored from space using satellite remote sensing by organizations seeking to provide quantitative and predictive information about food security crises. Better knowledge on the relation between climate indices and food production may increase the use of these indices in famine early warning systems and climate outlook forums on the continent. Here we explore the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We explore spatial relationships between growing conditions as measured by the NDVI and the five climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa to determine the regions and periods when they have a significant impact. The focus is to provide a clear indication as to which climate index has the most impact on the three regions during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by variations in the climate indices. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. The research shows that climate indices can contribute to understanding growing season variability in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa.

Brown, Molly E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Local Staple Food Price Indices in the Age of Biofuels

In many poor, food insecure regions, agriculture is a primary source of income and farmers are reliant both on their own production and on purchasing food in the market to feed their families. Large local food price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation and may be the consequence of weather-related food production declines, Dr can simply be the result of price transmission from the international commodity market. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets far from the places where the chronically food insecure live. A much better understanding of how local staple food prices in isolated regions such as West Africa that grow most of the food they eat to better understand the impact of global commodity market transformations on sensitive communities at the margin. This information will also enable improved strategies for these farmers who are extraordinarily sensitive to climate change impacts on agricultural growing conditions.

Brown, Molly E.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Northeast Alaska Climate: Using Earth Observations to Evaluate Snow Variability through a Climatological Analysis to Support Ecological Monitoring in Northeast Alaska

Alaska is experiencing climate change at an unprecedented rate, with temperatures increasing twice as fast as the national average. The resulting changes to the landscape and ecosystems are significant, including shorter winters, declining snow depth, thawing permafrost, and rapidly receding glaciers. These changes are not only exacerbating the negative impacts of oil exploration but also affecting the food security of indigenous communities that rely on hunting as a subsistence food source. With the US Fish and Wildlife Service managing a potential tundra travel season for the first time in its history, adequate data on historic snow variables is essential to protect the unique habitat of the area. This project used NASA satellite and assimilation system data to inform and improve the current understanding of snow patterns in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the National Petroleum Reserve – Alaska. The DEVELOP team used MODIS Normalized Difference Snow Index data to determine snow season duration, snow change frequency, and the first and last days of snow. The team also utilized the 2.1 Global Land Data Assimilation System and Daymet V4 products to study climatological trends in snow depth and snow water equivalent, respectively, across the study areas. The results of this study give users the capacity to visualize maps of multiple snow variables to monitor changes in snow conditions and proactively prepare for the ecological, cultural, and landscape impacts that changes in snow variability will cause in the future.

Remote Sensing↗
NASA NTRS2023

Uncovering Unique Molecular Adaptations in the Arabidopsis Thaliana Cvi-0 Ecotype

This research proposal aims to investigate the unique molecular adaptations exhibited by Arabidopsis Thaliana, specifically focusing on the Cape Verde Islands (Cvi-0) ecotype, in response to microgravity conditions. The study examines data from NASA’s Open Science Data Repository and applies a multifaceted RNAseq analysis pipeline using tools in the UseGalaxy.org open platform. Through transcriptomic analysis, differential gene expression patterns were identified in Cvi-0, revealing an absence of heat shock protein (HSP) upregulation and an upregulation of Rubisco Activase (RCA) and chloroplast-related pathways. To test the hypothesis that these adaptations may contribute to Cvi-0’s increased adaptability in microgravity, a three-fold experimental design is proposed. Four experimental groups will be cultivated under simulated microgravity and ground control conditions, including Cvi-0, Col-0, and genetically modified Col-0 with silenced HSP genes, and genetically modified Col-0 with upregulated RCA gene. Growth parameters will be measured to assess plant resilience, and RNA sequencing will provide transcriptomic data for pathway analysis. Anticipated outcomes include improved markers of plant health (mass, growth, etc.) of Cvi-0 in simulated microgravity and enhanced resilience in genetically altered Col-0 variants, providing insights into potential mechanisms of adaptation. This research would bear significance for space agriculture, nutrition for extended space missions, and sustainable terrestrial crop enhancement. Moreover, the insights gained could reshape crop engineering on Earth, enhancing robustness to climate induced stresses and bolstering global food security. The proposal’s trajectory blends scientific curiosity with practical applicability, forging a path towards sustainable food production and improving human exploration beyond our planet.

GL4HS↗
NASA NTRS2023

Plant Disease Detection: Exploring Applications in Hyperspectral Imaging and Machine Learning for Agriculture

The threat of crop disease on food security and agriculture is projected to escalate, leading to reduced crop yields, global economic loss, and endangered food availability to vulnerable populations. Early identification of plant disease is crucial to combatting the crisis but traditional manual methods for disease detection are laborious and may miss early signs of infection. The proposed solution suggests equipping a drone with a hyperspectral camera to collect images and analyzing the data with neural networks trained to flag and classify infected plants. This approach offers a faster, more accurate, and potentially more cost-effective alternative to current practices. While the expensive and complex nature of hyperspectral imaging (HSI) may be an obstacle to the adoption of the drone, rapidly advancing technologies compounded with rental-based usage may make these tools simpler, cheaper, and more accessible to a wider audience. The research further discusses the potential for automated flight paths and the expansion of disease detection to a broader range of crops.

plant disease detection↗
NASA NTRS2022

Impacts of Climate Change on Global Food Trade Networks

Countries' reliance on global food trade networks implies that regionally different climate change impacts on crop yields will be transmitted across borders. This redistribution constitutes a significant challenge for climate adaptation planning and may affect how countries engage in cooperative action. This paper investigates the long-term (2070–2099) potential impacts of climate change on global food trade networks of three key crops: wheat, rice and maize. We propose a simple network model to project how climate change impacts on crop yields may be translated into changes in trade. Combining trade and climate impact data, our analysis proceeds in three steps. First, we use network community detection to analyse how the concentration of global production in present-day trade communities may become disrupted with climate change impacts. Second, we study how countries may change their network position following climate change impacts. Third, we study the total climate-induced change in production plus import within trade communities. Results indicate that the stability of food trade network structures compared to today differs between crops, and that countries' maize trade is least stable under climate change impacts. Results also project that threats to global food security may depend on production change in a few major global producers, and whether trade communities can balance production and import loss in some vulnerable countries. Overall, our model contributes a baseline analysis of cross-border climate impacts on food trade networks.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2015

Climate Change Impacts on Rice Farming Systems in Northwestern Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has achieved tremendous progress since 1950 in crop production and food availability. Yields grew at an impressive rate until leveling off in the mid-eighties. Sri Lanka's population is anticipated to grow in the coming decades, creating an ever-greater demand for food security on the household, sub-district, regional, and national scales.The agricultural sector in Sri Lanka is vulnerable to climate shocks. An unusual succession of droughts and floods from 2008 to 2014 has led to both booms and busts in agricultural production, which were reflected in food prices. In both instances, the majority of farmers and consumers were adversely affected.At present the rice-farming systems are under stress due to inadequate returns for the farmers and difficulty in coping with shocks due to climate, pests, and diseases, and prices for produce. There are government price-support mechanisms, fertilizer-subsidy schemes, and crop insurance schemes, but the levels of the supports are modest and often do not effectively reach the farmers.

agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2018

Two-thirds of Global Cropland Area Impacted by Climate Oscillations

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaked strongly during the boreal winter 2015-2016, leading to food insecurity in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are known to impact crop yields worldwide. Here we assess for the first time in a unified framework the relationship between ENSO, IOD and NAO and simulated crop productivity at the sub-country scale. Our findings reveal that during 1961-2010, crop productivity is significantly influenced by at least one large-scale climate oscillation in two-thirds of global cropland area. Besides observing new possible links, especially for NAO in Africa and the Middle East, our analyses confirm several known relationships between crop productivity and these oscillations. Our results improve the understanding of climatological crop productivity drivers, which is essential for enhancing food security in many of the most vulnerable places on the planet.

IOD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Simulated High CO 2 Spaceflight Environment Increases Plant Preference for Ammonium as a Nitrogen Source.

Future long-duration missions will require a sustainable supply of food to support human crews. The spaceflight cabin environment often contains very high concentrations of CO 2 due to release of CO 2 by astronauts that is not completely scrubbed from the cabin, and it is therefore crucial to understand plant responses to elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) environments. Much focus has been given to changes in plant photosynthetic and performance parameters in response to eCO 2 , but the effects of eCO 2 on nitrogen (N) uptake are poorly understood. Shoot nitrate reduction may be reduced at eCO 2 , likely due to less reductant available for nitrate reduction because of reduced photorespiration and increased carbon fixation 1. Relative growth rate can be reduced at eCO 2 when N is provided only as nitrate and can be unaffected when N is supplied as ammonium 1. However, N uptake in response to eCO 2 has, to our knowledge, not yet been studied. An increased ‘preference’ for plants to take up N as ammonium at eCO 2 could have important implications for growth in the space environment, where N is currently only supplied as nitrate. In this study, novel stable isotope approaches were used in conjunction with hydroponics and isotope ratio mass spectrometry to determine the effect of eCO 2 on N preference for ammonium or nitrate in spring barley and lettuce when both N forms are provided equally. Several varieties of spring barley displayed increased ammonium preference at eCO 2 (720 ppm) compared to ambient CO 2 (410 ppm), though this was not true for all varieties 2. In most cases, increases in ammonium preference were driven by increases in ammonium uptake at eCO 2 and not decreases in nitrate uptake. Current research is assessing whether similar responses are observed in the candidate space crop lettuce, at levels of CO 2 like those observed on ISS (3000 ppm), and these results will also be presented. This work will enable the development of optimized nutrient regimes for candidate crops in space environments and the selection of crop varieties adapted to eCO 2 environments. Plants adapted to ammonium nutrition may play a role in future plant-based bioregenerative life support systems with higher ammonium concentrations due to waste recycling 3. Moreover, this research will further our understanding of plant responses to the eCO 2 environment brought about by climate change, allowing the development of future-proof crops that will help to maintain food security. References: 1. Bloom (2015). The increasing importance of distinguishing among plant nitrogen sources. Current Opinion in Plant Biology 25, 10-16. 2. Fountain (2023). Understanding interactions of barley (Hordeum vulgare) with soil nitrogen cycling activity and links to plant nitrogen preference. Ph.D. Thesis, The University of Sheffield. 3. Schiefloe et al. (2023). From urine to food and oxygen: effects of high and low NH4+:NO3- ratio on lettuce cultivated in a gas-tight hydroponic facility. Frontiers in Plant Science 14:1229476.

nitrogen↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project: Phase I Activities by a Global Community of Science

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) was founded in 2010. Its mission is to improve substantially the characterization of world food security as affected by climate variability and change, and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. The objectives of AgMIP are to: Incorporate state-of-the-art climate, crop/livestock, and agricultural economic model improvements into coordinated multi-model regional and global assessments of future climate impacts and adaptation and other key aspects of the food system. Utilize multiple models, scenarios, locations, crops/livestock, and participants to explore uncertainty and the impact of data and methodological choices. Collaborate with regional experts in agronomy, animal sciences, economics, and climate to build a strong basis for model applications, addressing key climate related questions and sustainable intensification farming systems. Improve scientific and adaptive capacity in modeling for major agricultural regions in the developing and developed world, with a focus on vulnerable regions. Improve agricultural data and enhance data-sharing based on their intercomparison and evaluation using best scientific practices. Develop modeling frameworks to identify and evaluate promising adaptation technologies and policies and to prioritize strategies.

farm crops↗
NASA NTRS2020

Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war

Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong pre-war fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing – similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1-2 year) catch by at most ~30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ~70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective pre-war management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ~43 ± 35% of today’s global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously-known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management.

food from the ocean↗