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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Probing eddy size and its effective mixing length in stably stratified roughness sublayer flows

Stably stratified roughness sublayer flows are ubiquitous yet remain difficult to represent in models and to interpret using field experiments. Here, continuous high-frequency potential temperature profiles from the forest floor up to 6.5 times the canopy height observed with distributed temperature sensing (DTS) are used to link eddy topology to roughness sublayer stability correction functions and coupling between air layers within and above the canopy. The experiments are conducted at two forest stands classified as hydrodynamically sparse and dense. Near-continuous profiles of eddy sizes (length scales) and effective mixing lengths for heat are derived from the observed profiles using a novel conditional sampling approach. The approach utilizes potential temperature isoline fluctuations from a statically stable background state. The transport of potential temperature by an observed eddy is assumed to be conserved (adiabatic movement) and we assume that irreversible heat exchange between the eddy and the surrounding background occurs along the (vertical) periphery of the eddy. This assumption is analogous to Prandtl's mixing-length concept, where momentum is transported rapidly vertically and then equilibrated with the local mean velocity gradient. A distinct dependence of the derived length scales on background stratification, height above ground, and canopy characteristics emerges from the observed profiles. Implications of these findings for (1) the failure of Monin–Obukhov similarity in the roughness sublayer and (2) above-canopy flow coupling to the forest floor are examined. The findings have practical applications in terms of analysing similar DTS data sets with the proposed approach, modelling roughness sublayer flows, and interpreting nocturnal eddy covariance measurements above tall forested canopies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Impacts of Recent Drought on Fire, Forest Loss, and Regional Smoke Emissions in Lowland Bolivia

In the southern Amazon relationships have been established among drought, human activities that cause forest loss, fire, and smoke emissions. We explore the impacts of recent drought on fire, forest loss, and atmospheric visibility in lowland Bolivia. To assess human influence on fire, we consider climate, fire, and vegetation dynamics in an area largely excluded from human activities since 1979, Noel Kempff Mercado National Park (NK) in northeastern Bolivia. We use data from five sources: the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Collection 6 active fire product (2001-2015) (MODIS C6), Global Fire Weather Database (GFWED) data (1982-2015), MODIS land cover data (2001-2010), MODIS forest loss data (2000-2012), and the regional extinction coefficient for the southwestern Amazon (i.e., B(sub ext)), which is derived from horizontal visibility data from surface stations at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) level (1973-2015). The B(sub ext) is affected by smoke and acts as a proxy for visibility and regional fire emissions. In lowland Bolivia from 2001 to 2015, interannual Drought Code (DC) variability was linked to fire activity, while from 1982 to 2015, interannual DC variability was linked to B(sub ext). From 2001 to 2015, the B(sub ext) and MODIS C6 active fire data for lowland Bolivia captured fire seasonality, and covaried between low- and high-fire years. Consistent with previous studies, our results suggest B(sub ext)t can be used as a longer-term proxy of regional fire emissions in southwestern Amazonia. Overall, our study found drought conditions were the dominant control on interannual fire variability in lowland Bolivia, and fires within NK were limited to the Cerrado and seasonally inundated wetland biomes. Our results suggest lowland Bolivian tropical forests were susceptible to human activities that may have amplified fire during drought. Human activities and drought need to be considered in future projections of southern Amazonian fire, in regard to carbon emissions and global climate.

Forest Loss↗
NASA NTRS2017

Estimating Evaporative Fraction From Readily Obtainable Variables in Mangrove Forests of the Everglades, U.S.A.

A remote-sensing-based model to estimate evaporative fraction (EF) the ratio of latent heat (LE; energy equivalent of evapotranspiration -ET-) to total available energy from easily obtainable remotely-sensed and meteorological parameters is presented. This research specifically addresses the shortcomings of existing ET retrieval methods such as calibration requirements of extensive accurate in situ micro-meteorological and flux tower observations, or of a large set of coarse-resolution or model-derived input datasets. The trapezoid model is capable of generating spatially varying EF maps from standard products such as land surface temperature [T(sub s)] normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)and daily maximum air temperature [T(sub a)]. The 2009 model results were validated at an eddy-covariance tower (Fluxnet ID: US-Skr) in the Everglades using T(sub s) and NDVI products from Landsat as well as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors. Results indicate that the model accuracy is within the range of instrument uncertainty, and is dependent on the spatial resolution and selection of end-members (i.e. wet/dry edge). The most accurate results were achieved with the T(sub s) from Landsat relative to the T(sub s) from the MODIS flown on the Terra and Aqua platforms due to the fine spatial resolution of Landsat (30 m). The bias, mean absolute percentage error and root mean square percentage error were as low as 2.9% (3.0%), 9.8% (13.3%), and 12.1% (16.1%) for Landsat-based (MODIS-based) EF estimates, respectively. Overall, this methodology shows promise for bridging the gap between temporally limited ET estimates at Landsat scales and more complex and difficult to constrain global ET remote-sensing models.

trapezoid↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Global Atmosphere‐aerosol Model ICON‐A‐HAM2.3–Initial Model Evaluation and Effects of Radiation Balance Tuning on Aerosol Optical Thickness

Abstract The Hamburg Aerosol Module version 2.3 (HAM2.3) from the ECHAM6.3‐HAM2.3 global atmosphere‐aerosol model is coupled to the recently developed icosahedral nonhydrostatic ICON‐A (icon‐aes‐1.3.00) global atmosphere model to yield the new ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 atmosphere‐aerosol model. The ICON‐A and ECHAM6.3 host models use different dynamical cores, parameterizations of vertical mixing due to sub‐grid scale turbulence, and parameter settings for radiation balance tuning. Here, we study the role of the different host models for simulated aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and evaluate impacts of using HAM2.3 and the ECHAM6‐HAM2.3 two‐moment cloud microphysics scheme on several meteorological variables. Sensitivity runs show that a positive AOT bias over the subtropical oceans is remedied in ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 because of a different default setting of a parameter in the moist convection parameterization of the host models. The global mean AOT is biased low compared to MODIS satellite instrument retrievals in ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 and ECHAM6.3‐HAM2.3, but the bias is larger in ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 because negative AOT biases over the Amazon, the African rain forest, and the northern Indian Ocean are no longer compensated by high biases over the sub‐tropical oceans. ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 shows a moderate improvement with respect to AOT observations at AERONET sites. A multivariable bias score combining biases of several meteorological variables into a single number is larger in ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 compared to standard ICON‐A and standard ECHAM6.3. In the tropics, this multivariable bias is of similar magnitude in ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 and in ECHAM6.3‐HAM2.3. In the extra‐tropics, a smaller multivariable bias is found for ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 than for ECHAM6.3‐HAM2.3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Volatile Organic Compounds and Meteorological Conditions in the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) Site, 2023

This data set contains measurements of atmospheric components and meteorological conditions of central Missouri, United States during the summer of 2023. Data serve to examine the impact of meteorological conditions relevant to future climate on the emission and transformation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). During the field campaign, researchers were also able to incorporate opportunistic analyses of the long-range transport of smoke plumes generated from extreme forest fire activities in Canada. VOC measurements were conducted at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site (latitude 38.7441, longitude −92.2000) using a proton transfer reaction time of flight mass spectrometer (PTR-ToF-MS 6000 X2). The sampling campaign was conducted during the summer of 2023 (2023-06-25 to 2023-08-12) with measurements being taken at high temporal resolution (1 hour). Particular VOCs analyzed include: Methanol, Acetonitrile, Acetone, Isoprene, Methylvinyl ketone (MVK) and methacrolein (MACr), Benzene, Toluene, Catechol, and Monoterpene. Meteorological parameters included in this dataset were collected from a nearby Columbia Regional Airport (~10 km). Global solar radiation data were measured at a weather site in Ashland, MO, 5.22 km from the MOFLUX tower. The data were accessed using the MesoWest online website (https://mesowest.utah.edu/) provided by the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah. Discussion of the data providers, database, and dissemination were highlighted in prior studies (Horel et al., 2002a; Horel et al., 2002b) . Smoke mixing ratios (in mg m−3) were estimated from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 3 km weather model for Missouri at 6-hour intervals (Dowell et al., 2022). This dataset contains three data files in comma separate (*.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: three data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (*.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

Acetone↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enhancing Air Quality Applications in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region Using Satellite, Model, and Machine Learning Techniques

Air pollution in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region of South Asia is a severe issue, as increases in emissions over the past two decades have degraded air quality (AQ) across the region, which poses major threats to human health, the ecosystem, climate, and agriculture. A diversity of anthropogenic and natural emission sources including transportation, power plants, industries, open biomass burning of crop residue, forest fires, cooking and heating fires, and dust storms contribute to unhealthy AQ and transboundary pollution issues in the region. Further complicating matters is the importance of meteorology and terrain on AQ, especially in the Kathmandu Valley where extreme haze episodes frequently develop from the atmospherically stable weather conditions during the winter monsoon. This study uses state-of-the-art satellite observations and modeling capabilities in conjunction with machine learning techniques to develop a comprehensive toolkit for enhancing AQ monitoring and forecasting in HKH. The toolkit incorporates new generation satellite observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), and Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI), which provide unprecedented resolution on aerosols and trace gases, including nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), formaldehyde (CH2O), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O 3 ), and aerosol optical depth (AOD). Value-added products [e.g., Particulate matter with diameters less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5)] are developed from the suite of satellite observations to further improve AQ monitoring capabilities in the region. The satellite products are also used to assimilate a high-resolution chemical transport model tailored for the HKH region, which is providing daily, 54-hour AQ forecasts with horizontal grid spacings of 12- and 4-km. This presentation will provide an overview of the suite of satellite- and model-based products in the AQ toolkit and application and performance of the toolkit for AQ monitoring and forecasting in HKH.

Air Quality↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enhancing Air Quality Applications in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region Using Satellite, Model, and Machine Learning Techniques

Air pollution in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region of South Asia is a severe issue, as increases in emissions over the past two decades have degraded air quality (AQ) across the region, which poses major threats to human health, the ecosystem, climate, and agriculture. A diversity of anthropogenic and natural emission sources including transportation, power plants, industries, open biomass burning of crop residue, forest fires, cooking and heating fires, and dust storms contribute to unhealthy AQ and transboundary pollution issues in the region. Further complicating matters is the importance of meteorology and terrain on AQ, especially in the Kathmandu Valley where extreme haze episodes frequently develop from the atmospherically stable weather conditions during the winter monsoon. This study uses state-of-the-art satellite observations and modeling capabilities in conjunction with machine learning techniques to develop a comprehensive toolkit for enhancing AQ monitoring and forecasting in HKH. The toolkit incorporates new generation satellite observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), and Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI), which provide unprecedented resolution on aerosols and trace gases, including nitrogen dioxide, formaldehyde, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and ozone, and aerosol optical depth. Value-added products, such as level 4 PM2.5 products, are developed from the suite of satellite observations to further improve AQ monitoring capabilities in the region. The satellite products are also used to assimilate a high-resolution chemical transport model tailored for the HKH region, which is providing daily, 54-hour AQ forecasts with horizontal grid spacings of 12- and 4-km. This presentation will provide an overview of the suite of satellite- and model-based products in the AQ toolkit and application and performance of the toolkit for AQ monitoring and forecasting in HKH.

Forecasting↗
NASA NTRS1973

Management of natural resources through automatic cartographic inventory

The author has identified the following significant results. Over those parts of the ARNICA test site where ERTS-1 data were available, the search for correspondences between images and ground truth acquired by the vegetation and geology maps was quite positive. The probability of recognition of soil use types can be estimated at: (1) 100% for water plans, rivers, canals, swamplands, and wetlands; (2) 80%-100% for the major types of forestry, farmland zones, moorlands and pasturelands, and urbanization; (3) 20%-50% for communication lines; (4) 60%-80% for forestry species and organization of agricultural areas; (5) 40%-60% for finer discrimination between forest types and more accurate identification of cultivations; (6) 60%-90% for major geological features. These percentages will be improved upon as soon as it is possible to use the repetitive imagery. An early use of automatic cartography using ERTS-1 imagery was made possible for pine forests in the Central Pyrenees, the densitometric signature of which were particularly significant. Important observations were made in related fields of water resources, snow survey, estuary dynamics, and meteorology.

Rey, P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Canadian Experiment for Soil Moisture in 2010 (CanEX-SM10): Overview and Preliminary Results

The Canadian Experiment for Soil Moisture in 2010 (CanEx-SM10) was carried out in Saskatchewan, Canada from 31 May to 16 June, 2010. Its main objective was to contribute to Soil Moisture and Ocean salinity (SMOS) mission validation and the pre-launch assessment of Soil Moisture and Active and Passive (SMAP) mission. During CanEx-SM10, SMOS data as well as other passive and active microwave measurements were collected by both airborne and satellite platforms. Ground-based measurements of soil (moisture, temperature, roughness, bulk density) and vegetation characteristics (Leaf Area Index, biomass, vegetation height) were conducted close in time to the airborne and satellite acquisitions. Besides, two ground-based in situ networks provided continuous measurements of meteorological conditions and soil moisture and soil temperature profiles. Two sites, each covering 33 km x 71 km (about two SMOS pixels) were selected in agricultural and boreal forested areas in order to provide contrasting soil and vegetation conditions. This paper describes the measurement strategy, provides an overview of the data sets and presents preliminary results. Over the agricultural area, the airborne L-band brightness temperatures matched up well with the SMOS data. The Radio frequency interference (RFI) observed in both SMOS and the airborne L-band radiometer data exhibited spatial and temporal variability and polarization dependency. The temporal evolution of SMOS soil moisture product matched that observed with the ground data, but the absolute soil moisture estimates did not meet the accuracy requirements (0.04 m3/m3) of the SMOS mission. AMSR-E soil moisture estimates are more closely correlated with measured soil moisture.

Magagi, Ramata↗
NASA NTRS2018

Identifying and Forecasting Potential Biophysical Risk Areas within a Tropical Mangrove Ecosystem Using Multi-Sensor Data

Mangroves are one of the most productive ecosystems known for provisioning of various ecosystem goods and services. They help in sequestering large amounts of carbon, protecting coastline against erosion, and reducing impacts of natural disasters such as hurricanes. Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary in Odisha harbors the second largest mangrove ecosystem in India. This study used Terra, Landsat and Sentinel-1 satellite data for spatio-temporal monitoring of mangrove forest within Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary between 2000 and 2016. Three biophysical parameters were used to assess mangrove ecosystem health: leaf chlorophyll (CHL), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). A long-term analysis of meteorological data such as precipitation and temperature was performed to determine an association between these parameters and mangrove biophysical characteristics. The correlation between meteorological parameters and mangrove biophysical characteristics enabled forecasting of mangrove health and productivity for year 2050 by incorporating IPCC projected climate data. A historical analysis of land cover maps was also performed using Landsat 5 and 8 data to determine changes in mangrove area estimates in years 1995, 2004 and 2017. There was a decrease in dense mangrove extent with an increase in open mangroves and agricultural area. Despite conservation efforts, the current extent of dense mangrove is projected to decrease up to 10% by the year 2050. All three biophysical characteristics including GPP, LAI and CHL, are projected to experience a net decrease of 7.7%, 20.83% and 25.96% respectively by 2050 compared to the mean annual value in 2016. This study will help the Forest Department, Government of Odisha in managing and taking appropriate decisions for conserving and sustaining the remaining mangrove forest under the changing climate and developmental activities.

Shanti Shrestha↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Flooded Fraction Prediction through Machine Learning Models Focusing on Medical Infrastructure in the Southeast U.S. Coastal Areas

Rising sea levels due to climate change increasingly threaten medical infrastructure through flooding. This study develops machine learning models to predict flood exposure for 11,508 medical facilities in the southeastern coastal regions of the United States by integrating datasets including meteorological, hydrological, topographic, and geological data, the Natural Risk Index, and historical flood records from NASA, HIFLD, and FEMA. Six regression models, namely Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression, Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbors, XGBoost, and Artificial Neural Networks, are trained using 16 explanatory variables identified through literature review and correlation analysis. Data preprocessing employs the SMOGN for class imbalance and Winsorization for outliers. Model performance is evaluated using MAE, MSE, and RMSE, with Random Forest and XGBoost models achieving the highest performance (MSE of 2.58e-5 and 3.69e-5, respectively). This multifactorial approach allows the models to capture complex flood-influencing relationships, enhancing adaptability and performance across geographic regions. Future work focuses on expanding across the U.S. and developing a near real-time flood monitoring system.

Jihoon Chung↗
NASA NTRS1994

A meteorological interpretation of the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE) 3B flight series

The Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE) 3B was conducted to determine the summertime tropospheric distribution, sources, and sinks of important trace gas and aerosol species over the wetlands and boreal forests of central and eastern Canada. Isentropic trajectories and analyzed midtropospheric circulation patterns were used to group flights according to the transport histories of polar, midlatitude, or tropical air masses which were sampled. These data were then divided into bands of potential temperature levels representing the low, middle, and maximum aircraft altitudes to assess the effects of both local and long distance transport and natural and man-made pollutants to the measured chemical species. Detailed case studies are provided to depict the complex three-dimensional airflow regimes that transported air with differing chemical signatures to the study area. Mission 6 details the large-scale movement of smoke in the generally prevailing west to northwesterly airflow that was observed on the majority of flights. Mission 1 analyzes the horizontal and vertical motions of maritime Pacific air in the upper troposphere that was routinely mixed downward to the aircraft altitude. Finally, mission 14 tracks the far northward excursion of tropical air that had been associated with a Pacific typhoon. The following three factors all had important influences on the collected chemical data sets: (1) local and distant stratospheric in puts into the upper and middle troposphere; (2) biomass-burning plumes from active fires in Alaska and Canada; (3) a band of 'low ozone' upper tropospheric air that was observed by airborne differential absorption lidar (DIAL) above the aircraft maximum altitude. Other modification factors observed on some flights included urban pollution from U.S. and Canadian cities, tropical air that had been associated with a Pacific typhoon, and precipitation scavenging by clouds and rain. Many flights were affected by several of the above factors which led to complex chemical signatures that will be discussed in other companion papers.

Shipham, Mark C.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Tonlé Sap Food Security & Agriculture III: Evaluating Changes in Ecosystem Vitality and Freshwater Health in the Tonlé Sap Basin using Remotely Sensed Data

Tonlé Sap Lake, located in Cambodia, Southeast Asia, is one of the most productive inland fisheries in the world. With the unique reverse flow hydrology of the Tonlé Sap River, this freshwater system contains rich biodiversity and provides critical freshwater resources for the local community. Overfishing, stronger seasonality, drought, dam construction, forest fires, and untreated industrial domestic sewage threaten the ecosystem vitality and economic success of Tonlé Sap. In collaboration with Conservation International and the Cambodian Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology’s Tonlé Sap Authority, we calibrated and finalized remotely-sensed proxies for sub-indicators of the Freshwater Health Index (FHI). We used NASA Earth observation data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). These datasets were used in RS proxies and a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that previous teams developed for sub-indicators of FHI. They included landcover, bank modification, and water quality metrics. It was determined that the ground water storage in Tonlé Sap Lake exhibited a slight declining trend over from April 1st, 2002 to February 3rd, 2017. To calculate chlorophyll-a concentration in the Tonlé Sap Lake, we used Copernicus Global Land Service mission data which provided a Trophic State Index of the lake. Between January 1st, 2000 and December 31st, 2020, the lake and surrounding region within the study area boundary displayed a slight decrease in vegetation density and consistently high chlorophyll-a concentrations. The SWAT model calculated nitrogen and phosphorus content measured in outlet points of the lake. We demonstrated that remotely sensed data is valuable for providing additional information for the FHI, but is not fully capable of replacing its in situ counterpart. We also concluded the water quantity is on a slowly declining trend within the basin.

Joey Lindsay↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lagged Wetland CH 4 Flux Response in a Historically Wet Year

While a stimulating effect of plant primary productivity on soil carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions has been well documented, links between gross primary productivity (GPP) and wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions are less well investigated. Determination of the influence of primary productivity on wetland CH 4 emissions (FCH 4 ) is complicated by confounding influences of water table level and temperature on CH 4 production, which also vary seasonally. Here, in this work, we evaluate the link between preceding GPP and subsequent FCH 4 at two fens in Wisconsin using eddy covariance flux towers, Lost Creek (US-Los) and Allequash Creek (US-ALQ). Both wetlands are mosaics of forested and shrub wetlands, with US-Los being larger in scale and having a more open canopy. Co-located sites with multi-year observations of flux, hydrology, and meteorology provide an opportunity to measure and compare lag effects on FCH4 without interference due to differing climate. Daily average FCH4 from US-Los reached a maximum of 47.7 ηmol CH 4 m -2 s -1 during the study period, while US-ALQ was more than double at 117.9 ηmol CH 4 m -2 s -1 . The lagged influence of GPP on temperature-normalized FCH4 (T air -FCH 4 ) was weaker and more delayed in a year with anomalously high precipitation than a following drier year at both sites. FCH 4 at US-ALQ was lower coincident with higher stream discharge in the wet year (2019), potentially due to soil gas flushing during high precipitation events and lower water temperatures. Better understanding of the lagged influence of GPP on FCH 4 due to this study has implications for climate modeling and more accurate carbon budgeting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reducing Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Errors in the ERA5 Reanalysis with Machine Learning and 25 Years of Surface Observations

Earth system models struggle to simulate clouds and their radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, partly due to a lack of measurements and targeted cloud microphysics knowledge. We have evaluated biases of downwelling shortwave radiation in the ERA5 climate reanalysis using 25 years (1995–2019) of summertime surface measurements, collected on the Research and Supply Vessel (RSV) Aurora Australis, the Research Vessel (R/V) Investigator, and at Macquarie Island. During October–March daylight hours, the ERA5 simulation of SW down exhibited large errors (mean bias = 54 W m -2 , mean absolute error = 82 W m -2 , root-mean-square error = 132 W m -2 , and R 2 = 0.71). To determine whether we could improve these statistics, we bypassed ERA5’s radiative transfer model for SW down with machine learning–based models using a number of ERA5’s gridscale meteorological variables as predictors. These models were trained and tested with the surface measurements of SW down using a 10-fold shuffle split. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and a random forest–based model setup had the best performance relative to ERA5, both with a near complete reduction of the mean bias error, a decrease in the mean absolute error and root-mean-square error by 25% ± 3%, and an increase in the R 2 value of 5% ± 1% over the 10 splits. Large improvements occurred at higher latitudes and cyclone cold sectors, where ERA5 performed most poorly. We further interpret our methods using Shapley additive explanations. Our results indicate that data-driven techniques could have an important role in simulating surface radiation fluxes and in improving reanalysis products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Best estimate of the planetary boundary layer height from multiple remote sensing measurements

Remote sensing measurements have been widely used to estimate the planetary boundary layer height (PBLHT). Each remote sensing approach offers unique strengths and faces different limitations. In this study, we use machine learning (ML) methods to produce a best-estimate PBLHT (PBLHT-BE-ML) by integrating four PBLHT estimates derived from remote sensing measurements at the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory. Three ML models – random forest (RF) classifier, RF regressor, and light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM) – were trained on a dataset from 2017 to 2023 that included radiosonde, various remote sensing PBLHT estimates, and atmospheric meteorological conditions. Evaluations indicated that PBLHT-BE-ML from all three models improved alignment with the PBLHT derived from radiosonde data (PBLHT-SONDE), with LightGBM demonstrating the highest accuracy under both stable and unstable boundary layer conditions. Feature analysis revealed that the most influential input features at the SGP site were the PBLHT estimates derived from (a) potential temperature profiles retrieved using Raman lidar (RL) and atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) measurements (PBLHT-THERMO), (b) vertical velocity variance profiles from Doppler lidar (PBLHT-DL), and (c) aerosol backscatter profiles from micropulse lidar (PBLHT-MPL). The trained models were then used to predict PBLHT-BE-ML at a temporal resolution of 10 min, effectively capturing the diurnal evolution of PBLHT and its significant seasonal variations, with the largest diurnal variation observed over summer at the SGP site. We applied these trained models to data from the ARM Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) field campaign (EPC), where the PBLHT-BE-ML, particularly with the LightGBM model, demonstrated improved accuracy against PBLHT-SONDE. Analyses of model performance at both the SGP and EPC sites suggest that expanding the training dataset to include various surface types, such as ocean and ice-covered areas, could further enhance ML model performance for PBLHT estimation across varied geographic regions.

Zhang, Damao [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2022

Opportunistic experiments to constrain aerosol effective radiative forcing

Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The nonlinearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well-defined sources provide “opportunistic experiments” (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatiotemporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors. We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite datasets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2022

Opportunistic Experiments to Constrain Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The non-linearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well defined sources provide ‘opportunistic experiments’ (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatio-temporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors.We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite data sets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change.

Matthew W Christensen↗