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Advancing Precipitation Estimation, Prediction, and Impact Studies

Precipitation exhibits a large variability over a wide range of space and time scales: from seconds to years and decades in time; from the millimeter scale of microphysical processes to regional and global scales in space. It also exhibits a large variability in magnitude and frequency, from low extremes resulting in prolonged droughts to high extremes resulting in devastating floods. Improving precipitation estimation and prediction has great societal impact for decision support in water resources management, infrastructure protection and design under accelerating climate extremes, quantifying water and energy balances at the regional to global scales, and predicting hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts that affect the economy and security around the world (e.g., Blunden and Arndt, 2019). Yet, despite significant advances in observations and physical understanding, precipitation still remains one of the most challenging variables to model and predict at local, regional and global scales with significant implications for our ability to quantify water and energy cycle dynamics, inform decision making, and predict hydro-geomorphic hazards in response to precipitation extremes (e.g. Maggioni and Massari, 2019).

Efi Foufoula-Georgiou

The HYDROS Mission: Requirements and Baseline System Design

The HYDROS mission is under development by NASA as part of its Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) program. HYDROS is designed to provide global maps of the Earth's soil moisture and freezel/thaw state every 2-3 days, for weather and climate prediction, water and carbon cycle studies, natural hazards monitoring, and national security applications. HYDROS uses a unique active and passive L-band microwave system that optimizes measurement accuracy, spatial resolution, and coverage. It provides measurements in nearly all weather conditions, regardless of solar illumination. The designs of the radar and radiometer electronics, antenna feedhorn and reflector, and science data system, are driven by specific mission and science objectives. These objectives impose requirements on the frequencies, polarizations, sampling, spatial resolution, and accuracy of the system. In this paper we describe the HYDROS mission requirements, baseline design, and measurement capabilities.

soil moisture

A Privacy First Path Analysis using Clickstream Data

In the modern digital economy, data-driven decision making is crucial for effectively meeting the ever-evolving demands of consumer engagement and satisfaction. Clickstream data has become invaluable for understanding customer behavior, yet concerns over privacy and security persist, especially with some internet service providers profiting from its sale. This article introduces an innovative methodology that blends experiential learning with advanced cryptographic techniques, including differential privacy and graph analytics. The core objective of this methodology is to estimate Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) by analyzing clickstream data, achieving an average prediction accuracy of 92.4% in user engagement levels while ensuring user anonymity through Recency, Frequency, and Monetary (RFM) analysis. Our study introduces the concept of a “data depositor” and a privacy manager, employing the composition theorem to merge non-adaptive queries effectively. Privacy budgets (? = 1.0, d = 10-5), sensitivity-specific techniques, and data partitioning were applied. Randomization and noise addition protect data integrity, with special handling for categorical values. This approach, differing from prior studies, offers a 12.6% improvement in privacy-preserving targeting accuracy while maintaining strict confidentiality, presenting a novel path forward in data-driven decision-making.

Frequency and Monetary (RFM) analysis

Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations

The resilience of defense infrastructure systems to a changing climate is critical for national security. Climate induced recurrent flooding is already impacting over 20 U.S. Air Force installations, underscoring the urgency of revisiting precipitation standards and stormwater infrastructure design. Despite growing scientific knowledge and an expanding set of tools for updating outdated precipitation standards based on the assumption of climate stationarity, the adoption of climate informed analyses remain limited in practice. This study utilizes an existing framework to update Intensity (or Depth)-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves using an ensemble of future climate projections. Change factors in precipitation estimates are derived and applied to six USAF installations across the U.S. The analysis is further extended to evaluate the implications of climate-informed DDFs on stormwater infrastructure performance and flood analysis at Tyndall AFB. Results indicate that the current design precipitation estimates are likely to become obsolete in all six USAF bases by the end of the century. The wide range of change factors across 32 GCM ensembles highlights the need to integrate uncertainty and evolving scientific data into infrastructure planning. The study also finds that the impacts of a changing climate vary spatially and temporally, emphasizing the value of localized analysis for infrastructure decision-making. The work advances ongoing DoD and societal efforts to implement adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing infrastructure resilience.

Intensity-duration-frequency curves

Gamma-ray Burst Afterglows as Probes of Environment and Blastwave Physics: Absorption by Host Galaxy Gas and Dust, Circumburst Media and the Distribution of P

We use a new approach to obtain limits on the absorbing columns towards a sample of 10 Gamma-ray Bursts observed by BeppoSAX from simultaneous fits to X-ray, optical and IR data, in counts space and including the effects of metallicity. For half the afterglows the best-fitting model to the SED includes SMC-like extinction (as opposed to LMC or MW) and in one LMC-like extinction, and in no cases is there a preference for MW-like extinction. Gas-to-dust ratios generally do not match those of the 3 standard and most well-known extinction models of SMC, LMC and MW, but tend to be higher. We compare the results from this method to those of previous works using other methods. We constrain the jet models for a subsample of the bursts by constraining the cooling break position and power law spectral slopes, allowing the injected electron energy index to be measured. We derive secure values of p from our spectral fits and comparison with the temporal optical and X-ray slopes for 4 afterglows. The mean of these single value, suggesting that either external factors such as circumburst medium play a strong role or that the microphysics is not identical for each GRB. For GRB 971214 we find that the circumburst medium has a wind-like density profile and the cooling frequency appears to be moving to higher frequencies.

Starling, R. L. C.

The Extreme 2016 Wheat Failure in France

France suffered in 2016 the most extreme wheat yield decline in recent history, with some districts losing 55% yield. To attribute causes, we combined the largest coherent detailed wheat field experimental dataset with statistical and crop model techniques, climate information and yield physiology. The 2016 yield was composed of up to 40% fewer grains that were up to 30% lighter than expected across eight research stations in France. The flowering stage was affected by prolonged cloud cover and heavy rainfall when 31% of the loss in grain yield was incurred from reduced solar radiation and 19% from floret damage. Grain filling was also affected as 26% of grain yield loss was caused by soil anoxia, 11% by fungal foliar diseases and 10% by ear blight. Compounding climate effects caused the extreme yield decline. The likelihood of these compound factors recurring under future climate change is estimated to change with a higher frequency of extremely low wheat yields.

Extreme weather

WEC as a multiport

SAND2025-00555O WEC as a multiport is a software tool that simplifies the modeling and design of ocean wave energy converters (WECs) using a multi-port network framework in the frequency domain. Users can simulate the dynamic interactions between WECs and ocean waves, optimizing energy extraction and system performance. This tool supports the analysis of complex wave energy systems, aiding in the development of efficient and effective WEC designs. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Coe, Ryan

Fabrication of a Cryogenic Bias Filter for Ultrasensitive Focal Plane

A fabrication process has been developed for cryogenic in-line filtering for the bias and readout of ultrasensitive cryogenic bolometers for millimeter and submillimeter wavelengths. The design is a microstripline filter that cuts out, or strongly attenuates, frequencies (10 50 GHz) that can be carried by wiring staged at cryogenic temperatures. The filter must have 100-percent transmission at DC and low frequencies where the bias and readout lines will carry signal. The fabrication requires the encapsulation of superconducting wiring in a dielectric-metal envelope with precise electrical characteristics. Sufficiently thick insulation layers with high-conductivity metal layers fully surrounding a patterned superconducting wire in arrayable formats have been demonstrated. A degenerately doped silicon wafer has been chosen to provide a metallic ground plane. A metallic seed layer is patterned to enable attachment to the ground plane. Thick silicon dioxide films are deposited at low temperatures to provide tunable dielectric isolation without degrading the metallic seed layer. Superconducting wiring is deposited and patterned using microstripline filtering techniques to cut out the relevant frequencies. A low Tc superconductor is used so that it will attenuate power strongly above the gap frequency. Thick dielectric is deposited on top of the circuit, and then vias are patterned through both dielectric layers. A thick conductive film is deposited conformally over the entire circuit, except for the contact pads for the signal and bias attachments to complete the encapsulating ground plane. Filters are high-aspect- ratio rectangles, allowing close packing in one direction, while enabling the chip to feed through the wall of a copper enclosure. The chip is secured in the copper wall using a soft metal seal to make good thermal and electrical contact to the outer shield.

Chervenak, James

Programmable low-coherence wavefronts for enhanced localization

Engineering the properties of electromagnetic wavefronts has become essential to imaging, wireless security, sensing, and wireless communication. In particular, wavefronts that exhibit low spatial coherence can enable sensing functionalities with high accuracy and low latency. The typical use of such wavefronts cannot take advantage of these possibilities, as they require the ability to dynamically reconfigure the wavefront in a controllable and repeatable fashion, over a broad spectral bandwidth. Here, we propose a new approach for generating broadband reconfigurable wavefronts which not only exhibit low spatial coherence at a particular frequency, but are also decorrelated with the wavefronts simultaneously generated at other frequencies. We demonstrate that this frequency-domain decorrelation is a key feature that, in combination with dynamic reconfigurability, enables localization measurements with an order-of-magnitude improvement in accuracy compared to the state of the art.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Analysis Background & Noise in Stretched Wire Alignment Technique Measurements

The Stretched-Wire Alignment Technique (SWAT) is one method of magnet alignment for linear induction accelerators. The applications of SWAT have been implemented for aligning solenoid magnets on the Scorpius linear induction accelerator which will be sited at the Nevada National Security Site and the Flash X-Ray (FXR) linear induction accelerator at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Contained Firing Facility. This article describes both systematic (repeatable) and random sources of background and noise as well as practical ways to eliminate or reduce them to acceptable levels. Systematic sources include reflections from wire ends, rapid sag due to ohmic heating of the wire, magnetic materials, and shot rate. Random sources include air currents, vibration of nearby equipment, mechanical stability of test equipment, and the instruments used to measure the wire motion. Mitigations include curve fitting and adaptive noise signal cancellation, and mechanical damping. Finite Element Analysis (FEA) was used to identify and resolve a repeatable wire vibration frequency interfering with the signal resolution. Two stretched wire alignment technique set ups from Sandia National Labs and Lawrence Livermore National Lab have shown background noise sources and ways of mitigating them by either analysis methods or change of mechanical configuration. Conclusions that were drawn included the severe sensitivity of the deflection to even small external interferences of the SWAT wire such that it requires attention to detail in mechanical set up and analysis.

Linear Inductive Accelerator

A Perspective on the Impact of Group Delay Dispersion in Future Terahertz Wireless Systems

This article discusses the challenges and opportunities of managing group delay dispersion (GDD), and its relation to the performance standards of future sixth-generation (6G) wireless communication systems utilizing terahertz frequency waves. The unique susceptibilities of 6G systems to GDD are described, along with a quantitative description of the sources of GDD, including multipath, rough surface scattering, intelligent reflecting surfaces, and propagation through the atmosphere. An experimental case-study is presented that confirms previous models quantifying the impact of atmospheric GDD. Several GDD manipulation strategies are presented, illustrating their hindered effectiveness in the 6G context. Conversely, some benefits of leveraging GDD to enhance 6G systems, such as improved security and simplified hardware, are also discussed. Finally, a perspective on using photonic GDD control devices is provided, revealing quantitative benefits that may unburden existing equalization schemes. Here, the article argues that GDD will uniquely and significantly impact some 6G systems, but that its careful consideration along with new mitigation strategies, including photonic devices, will help optimize system performance. The conclusion provides a perspective to guide future research in this area.

Strecker, Karl

Unraveling the Noise: An Investigation Plan for Signal Interference in Hearing Aids

Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) has revolutionized the performance of hearing aids with functionalities like seamless audio streaming and enhanced auditory functions. However, BLE operates within the highly congested 2.4 GHz frequency band, making it susceptible to signal interference that can degrade performance, reduce audio quality, and impact user experience. This paper documents interference patterns in BLE communication and introduces practical mitigation techniques aimed at improving the reliability of hearing aids. Attack vectors associated with Bluetooth enabled hearing aids include communication jamming, the interception of data between target devices, and GATT handle exploitation. Attackers could also use the vulnerabilities to block communications or intercept sensitive audio streams, posing significant security and privacy risks. These threats compromise two critical components of the CIA triad: (1) availability, by causing persistent connectivity issues, and (2) integrity, by enabling unauthorized data modifications. It is necessary to deal with these problems to ensure hearing aids work well and safely. This study investigates the impact of BLE signal interference on hearing aids, using tools such as HackRF [1], a Python tool to simulate interference scenarios, and Ubertooth [2] to sniff Bluetooth traffic between hearing aids and the device with the application. This paper investigates testing of BLE traffic in search of specific interference patterns that would impact the functionality of hearing aids, including jamming and flooding. This research focuses on developing robust mitigation techniques with the aim of securing BLE-enabled hearing aids against those vulnerabilities.

Baldwin, David [Savannah River National Laboratory

Broad NE 8 lambda 774 emission from quasars in the HST-FOS snapshot survey (ABSNAP)

We discuss the strength and frequency of broad Ne VIII lambda 774 emission from quasars measured in the Hubble Space Telescope Faint Object Spectrograph (HST-FOS) snapshot survey (Absnap). Five sources in the survey have suitable redshifts (0.86 less than or equal to Z(sub em) less than or equal to 1.31), signal-to-noise ratios and no Lyman limit absorptions. Three of the five sources have a strong broad emission line near 774 A (rest), and the remaining two sources have a less securely measured line near this wavelength. We identify these lines with Ne VIII lambda 774 based on the measured wavelengths and theoretical estimates of various line fluxes (Hamann et al. 1995a). Secure Ne VIII detections occur in both radio-loud and radio-quiet sources. We tentatively conclude that broad Ne VIII lambda 774 emission is common in quasars, with typical strengths between approximately 25% and approximately 200% of O VI lambda 1034. These Ne VIII lambda 774 measurements imply that the broad emission line regions have a much hotter and more highly ionized component than previously recognized. They also suggest that quasar continua have substantial ionizing flux out to energies greater than 207 eV (greater than 15.2 ryd, lambda less than 60 A). Photoionization calculations using standard incident spectra indicate that the Ne VIII emission requires ionization parameters U greater than or = 5, total column densities N(sub H) greater than or = 10(sub 22)/sq cm and covering factors greater than or = 25%. The temperatures could be as high as approximately 10(exp 5) K. If the gas is instead collisionally ionized, strong Ne VIII would imply equilibrium temperatures in the range approximately 400,000 less than or approximately = T(sub e) less than or approximately = 10(exp 6) K. In either case, the highly ionized Ne VIII emission regions would appear as X-ray 'warm absorbers' if they lie along our line of sight to the X-ray continuum source.

Hamann, Fred

Soil and groundwater environmental sensor data, Wax Lake Delta, Louisiana, March 2023 - March 2024

This study evaluates how environmental parameters that integrate biogeochemical processes vary with water table fluctuations in the freshwater Wax Lake Delta (WLD) in Louisiana, U.S.A. This data package contains seven *.csv files and one Excel file that compiles all the data from the individual .csv files. This dataset reports high frequency (15-min) observations of water level, soil redox potential, specific conductance, and pH made for one year along elevation transects located on the older, proximal (OT) and younger, distal (YT) ends of a deltaic island. Water depth relative to the ground surface (cm; HOBO U20L-04; error ± 0.4 cm), water pH and temperature (HOBO MX2501), and specific conductance and temperature (HOBO U24-001) sensors were installed in March 2023. Water depth was corrected for barometric pressure recorded by a separate logger secured to a platform above the highest water level. Soil redox probes (SWAP ORP-40-4-B) were also installed in March 2023. Each probe had four Pt sensors (2 mm width) placed at 10 cm, 20 cm, 30 cm, and 40 cm below the ground surface. Redox data were referenced to an external Ag0/AgCl (3M KCl) reference probe placed in saturated ground and recorded on CR1000X dataloggers (Campbell Scientific) powered by solar panels. A second reference probe was positioned near the primary reference probe for backup and data correction. The tops of the soil redox probes and soil moisture probes were flush with the soil surface so that sensors are reported at their indicated depths below ground surface. Here, we report data collected between 15 March 2023 to 15 March 2024 for all sensors, with some differences due to exact dates of sensor placement or data gaps associated with sensor malfunction. For example, water depth at OT4 was not recorded between March to November 2023. Data flags indicate whether a value is valid (1) or was excluded from data analysis in the associated manuscript (-1).

EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > SOILS

Aeronautical Mobile Airport Communications System (AeroMACS)

To help increase the capacity and efficiency of the nation s airports, a secure wideband wireless communications system is proposed for use on the airport surface. This paper provides an overview of the research and development process for the Aeronautical Mobile Airport Communications System (AeroMACS). AeroMACS is based on a specific commercial profile of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 802.16 standard known as Wireless Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access or WiMAX (WiMax Forum). The paper includes background on the need for global interoperability in air/ground data communications, describes potential AeroMACS applications, addresses allocated frequency spectrum constraints, summarizes the international standardization process, and provides findings and recommendations from the world s first AeroMACS prototype implemented in Cleveland, Ohio, USA.

Budinger, James M.

Reducing the Effect of Transducer Mount Induced Noise on Aeroacoustic Wind Tunnel Testing Data with a New Transducer Mount Design

Characterization of launch vehicle unsteady aerodynamics is a field best studied through experimentation, which is often carried out in the form of large scale wind tunnel testing. Measurement of the fluctuating pressures induced by the boundary layer noise is customarily made with miniature pressure transducers installed into a model of the vehicle of interest. Literature shows that noise level increases between two to five decibels (dB referenced to 20 micropascal) can be induced when the transducer surface is not mounted perfectly flush with the model outer surface. To reduce this artificially induced noise, special transducer holders have been used for aeroacoustic wind tunnel testing by NASA. This holder is a sleeve into which the transducer fits, with a cap that allows it to be mounted in a recessed hole in the model. A single hole in the holder allows the transport of the tunnel medium so the transducer can discriminate the fluctuating pressure due to the turbulent boundary layer noise. The holder is first dry fitted into the model and any difference in height between the holder and the model surface can be sanded flush. The holder is then removed from the model, the transducer glued inside the holder, and the holder replaced in the model, secured also with glue, thus eliminating the problem of noise level increases due to lack of flushness. In order to work with this holder design, special transducers have been ordered with their standard screen removed and the diaphragm moved as close to the top of the casing as possible to minimize any cavity volume. Although this greatly reduces induced noise due to the transducers being out of flush, the holders can also induce a cavity resonance that is usually at a very high frequency. This noise is termed transducer mount induced noise (XMIN). The peak of the mode can vary with the cavity depth, boundary layer noise that can excite the mode, tunnel flow medium, and the build of the transducers. Because the boundary layer flow interaction with the microphone holder seems to have some effect on the cavity resonance response, the NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) aeroacoustic team postulated that changing the design of the holder might reduce the cavity resonance response. An experiment was performed at the MSFC Trisonic Wind Tunnel comparing a new holder design with the traditional MSFC holder. The new holder design is intended to mimic the Kulite Semiconductors, Inc. B-screen, where the single hole of the traditional MSFC holder is replaced by a series of ten 0.007 inch diameter holes. This particular design serves to protect the transducer diaphragm as in the manufacturer's B-screen, but also increases the frequency of the XMIN such that it is not apparent in the data collected from aeroacoustic wind tunnel tests. MSFC compared the two holder designs by installing two transducers in standard holders on one side of a ten inch long ten degree cone, and two transducers in B-screen holders on the opposite side for a series of runs at different conditions. Over 11-13 February, 2013, the model was run at Mach numbers between 0.80 and 1.96 at angles of attack at 0 deg, plus or minus 1 deg, plus or minus 2 deg, plus or minus 4 deg, and plus or minus 8 deg. Model roll attitudes at 0 deg, 90 deg, and 180 deg were tested to isolate potential tunnel bias. This paper presents results from the test showing that the proposed holder design significantly reduces the influence of XMIN on measured fluctuating pressure levels.

Herron, A. J.

Monte Carlo simulations of precise timekeeping in the Milstar communication satellite system

The Milstar communications satellite system will provide secure antijam communication capabilities for DOD operations into the next century. In order to accomplish this task, the Milstar system will employ precise timekeeping on its satellites and at its ground control stations. The constellation will consist of four satellites in geosynchronous orbit, each carrying a set of four rubidium (Rb) atomic clocks. Several times a day, during normal operation, the Mission Control Element (MCE) will collect timing information from the constellation, and after several days use this information to update the time and frequency of the satellite clocks. The MCE will maintain precise time with a cesium (Cs) atomic clock, synchronized to UTC(USNO) via a GPS receiver. We have developed a Monte Carlo simulation of Milstar's space segment timekeeping. The simulation includes the effects of: uplink/downlink time transfer noise; satellite crosslink time transfer noise; satellite diurnal temperature variations; satellite and ground station atomic clock noise; and also quantization limits regarding satellite time and frequency corrections. The Monte Carlo simulation capability has proven to be an invaluable tool in assessing the performance characteristics of various timekeeping algorithms proposed for Milstar, and also in highlighting the timekeeping capabilities of the system. Here, we provide a brief overview of the basic Milstar timekeeping architecture as it is presently envisioned. We then describe the Monte Carlo simulation of space segment timekeeping, and provide examples of the simulation's efficacy in resolving timekeeping issues.

Camparo, James C.

Detection, Localization, and Tracking of Unauthorized UAS and Jammers

Small unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) are expected to take major roles in future smart cities, for example, by delivering goods and merchandise, potentially serving as mobile hot spots for broadband wireless access, and maintaining surveillance and security. Although they can be used for the betterment of the society, they can also be used by malicious entities to conduct physical and cyber attacks to infrastructure, private/public property, and people. Even for legitimate use-cases of small UASs, air traffic management (ATM) for UASs becomes of critical importance for maintaining safe and collusion-free operation. Therefore, various ways to detect, track, and interdict potentially unauthorized drones carries critical importance for surveillance and ATM applications. In this paper, we will review techniques that rely on ambient radio frequency signals (emitted from UASs), radars, acoustic sensors, and computer vision techniques for detection of malicious UASs. We will present some early experimental and simulation results on radar-based range estimation of UASs, and receding horizon tracking of UASs. Subsequently, we will overview common techniques that are considered for interdiction of UASs.

surveillance