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This year we have introduced several modeling improvements, including estimating a parametric model for the mearly-diurnal and nearly-semidiurnal tidal frequency variations of UTI and polar motion, and estimating site velocities.
Historical records of the Nile water level provide a unique opportunity to investigate the possibility that solar variability influences the Earth's climate. Particularly important are the annual records of the water level, which are uninterrupted for the years 622-1470 A.D. These records are non-stationary, so that standard spectral analyses cannot adequately characterize them. Here the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique, which is designed to deal with nonstationary, nonlinear time series, becomes useful. It allows the identification of two characteristic time scales in the water level data that can be linked to solar variability: the 88 year period and a time scale of about 200 years. These time scales are also present in the concurrent aurora data. Auroras are driven by coronal mass ejections and the rate of auroras is an excellent proxy for solar variability. Analysis of auroral data contemporaneous with the Nile data shows peaks at 88 years and about 200 years. This suggests a physical link between solar variability and the low frequency variations of the Nile water level. The link involves the influence of solar variability on the North Annual Mode of atmospheric variability and its North Atlantic and Indian Oceans patterns that affect rainfall over Eastern Equatorial Africa where the Nile originates.
We examine time series of the daily global power (W) radiated by carbon dioxide (at 15 microns) and by nitric oxide (at 5.3 microns) from the Earth s thermosphere between 100 km and 200 km altitude. Also examined is a time series of the daily absorbed solar ultraviolet power in the same altitude region in the wavelength span 0 to 175 nm. The infrared data are derived from the SABER instrument and the solar data are derived from the SEE instrument, both on the NASA TIMED satellite. The time series cover nearly 5 years from 2002 through 2006. The infrared and solar time series exhibit a decrease in radiated and absorbed power consistent with the declining phase of the current 11-year solar cycle. The infrared time series also exhibits high frequency variations that are not evident in the solar power time series. Spectral analysis shows a statistically significant 9-day periodicity in the infrared data but not in the solar data. A very strong 9-day periodicity is also found to exist in the time series of daily A(sub p) and K(sub p) geomagnetic indexes. These 9-day periodicities are linked to the recurrence of coronal holes on the Sun. These results demonstrate a direct coupling between the upper atmosphere of the Sun and the infrared energy budget of the thermosphere.
I develop and document a set of procedures which test the quality of predictions of solar wind speed and polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) made by coupled models of the ambient solar corona and heliosphere. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is used to illustrate the application of these validation procedures. I present an algorithm which detects transitions of the solar wind from slow to high speed. I also present an algorithm which processes the measured polarity of the outward directed component of the IMF. This removes high-frequency variations to expose the longer-scale changes that reflect IMF sector changes. I apply these algorithms to WSA model predictions made using a small set of photospheric synoptic magnetograms obtained by the Global Oscillation Network Group as input to the model. The results of this preliminary validation of the WSA model (version 1.6) are summarized.
The processing of the GPS observations of the site survey at Sheshan 25-m radio telescope in August 2008 is reported. Because each session in this survey is only about six hours, not allowing the subdaily high frequency variations in the station coordinates to be reasonably smoothed, and because there are serious cycle slips in the observations and a large volume of data would be rejected during the software automatic adjustment of slips, the ordinary solution settings of GAMIT needed to be adjusted by loosening the constraints in the a priori coordinates to 10 m, adopting the "quick" mode in the solution iteration, and combining Cview manual operation with GAMIT automatic fixing of cycle slips. The resulting coordinates of the local control polygon in ITRF2005 are then compared with conventional geodetic results. Due to large rotations and translations in the two sets of coordinates (geocentric versus quasi-topocentric), the seven transformation parameters cannot be solved for directly. With various trial solutions it is shown that with a partial pre-removal of the large parameters, high precision transformation parameters can be obtained with post-fit residuals at the millimeter level. This analysis is necessary to prepare the follow-on site and transformation survey of the VLBI and SLR telescopes at Sheshan
An experimental study is carried out addressing the flowfield and radiated noise from the interaction of a large aspect ratio rectangular jet with a flat plate placed parallel to but away from the direct path of the jet. Sound pressure level spectra exhibit an increase in the noise levels for both the 'reflected' and 'shielded' sides of the plate relative to the free-jet case. Detailed cross-sectional distributions of flowfield properties obtained by hot-wire anemometry are documented for a low subsonic condition. Corresponding mean Mach number distributions obtained by Pitot-probe surveys are presented for high subsonic conditions. In the latter flow regime and for certain relative locations of the plate, a flow resonance accompanied by audible tones is encountered. Under the resonant condition the jet cross-section experiences an 'axis-switching' and flow visualization indicates the presence of an organized 'vortex street'. The trends of the resonant frequency variation with flow parameters exhibit some similarities to, but also marked differences with, corresponding trends of the well-known edgetone phenomenon.
A resonant interaction between a large aspect ratio rectangular jet and a flat-plate is addressed in this experimental study. The plate is placed parallel to but away from the direct path of the jet. At high subsonic conditions and for certain relative locations of the plate, the resonance accompanied by an audible tone is encountered. The trends of the tone frequency variation exhibit some similarities to, but also marked differences from, corresponding trends of the well-known edge-tone phenomenon. Under the resonant condition flow visualization indicates a periodic flapping motion of the jet column. Phase-averaged Mach number data obtained near the plate's trailing edge illustrate that the jet cross-section goes through large contortions within the period of the tone. Farther downstream a clear 'axis switching' takes place. These results suggest that the assumption of two-dimensionality should be viewed with caution in any analysis of the flow.
The NASA GSFC DORIS analysis center has processed data from January 1993 to December 2014 and provided 1141 weekly solutionsin the form of normal equations for incorporation into the DORIS solution for ITRF2014. The solution time series, designated asgscwd26, were based on tracking data to eleven DORIS satellites divided generally into seven-day arcs. With respect to the ITRF2008 submission (Le Bail et al., 2010), the measurement model was updated to model the beacon frequency variations at certain DORIS sites,to apply the DORIS antenna phase law for the Starec and Alcatel antennae, and to apply the antenna offset corrections in the NASAGSFC orbit determination software rather than using the data-supplied corrections. We show that computing the antenna offset correctionsin the orbit determination software is superior to using the offset corrections that are supplied with the DORIS data, and that thisimproves the RMS of fit for SPOT-2, Envisat, SPOT-4, and SPOT-5. The updates for the force model included: (1) the development of improved nonconservative force modeling for SPOT-2, SPOT-3, SPOT-5, Envisat, and HY-2A, and (2) the application of an updatedstatic gravity model based on GRACE and GOCE data, and weekly models of the variations in the low degree gravity field deducedindependently from tracking by Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) and DORIS. The post-ITRF2008 DORIS coordinate WRMS afterthe launch of Envisat and SPOT-5 is improved from 11.20 to 12.45 mm with ITRF2008 (Le Bail et al., 2010), to between 8.50 and9.99 mm with the gscwd26 SINEX solution. The application of the DORIS antenna phase laws shifts the DORIS scale wrt DPOD2008by +6.0 mm from 19930103 to 20020606, and by +11.4 mm from 20020613 to 20111030. The application of more detailed models of time-variable gravity reduces the slopes in the Helmert transformation parameters Tx, and Ty (w.r.t. DPOD2008) after 2005. The annual amplitude in these parameters is reduced from 3.2 mm (for Tx), 4.1 mm (for Ty), to 1.7 mm (for Tx) and 2.8 mm (for Ty).
Previous studies have estimated the ages of lunar lobate scarps, some of the youngest tectonic landforms on the Moon, based on the estimated life-times of their fresh morphologies and associated small graben, using crater degradation ages, or via buffered and traditional crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements. Here, we reexamine five scarps previously dated by Binder and Gunga (1985) with crater degradation ages to benchmark the evaluation of both the buffered and traditional CSFD approaches for determination of absolute model ages (AMAs) at scarps. Both CSFD methods yield similar ages for each individual scarp, indicating that fault activity not only can be measured on the scarp itself, but also in the surrounding terrain - an indication that tectonic activity causes surface renewal both adjacent to and even kilometers distant from scarps. Size-frequency variations in the regions surrounding the scarps are thus useful for studying the extent and severity of the ground motion caused by coseismic slip events during scarp formation. All age determination approaches continue to indicate that lunar lobate scarps were active in the late Copernican, with some scarps possibly experiencing activity within the last 100 Ma.
Previous studies have estimated the ages of lunar lobate scarps, some of the youngest tectonic landforms on the Moon, based on the estimated life-times of their fresh morphologies and associated small graben, using crater degradation ages, or via buffered and traditional crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements. Here, we reexamine five scarps previously dated by Binder and Gunga (1985) with crater degradation ages to benchmark the evaluation of both the buffered and traditional CSFD approaches for determination of absolute model ages (AMAs) at scarps. Both CSFD methods yield similar ages for each individual scarp, indicating that fault activity not only can be measured on the scarp itself, but also in the surrounding terrain –an indication that tectonic activity causes surface renewal both adjacent to and even kilometers distant from scarps. Size-frequency variations in the regions surrounding the scarps are thus useful for studying the extent and severity of the ground motion caused by coseismic slip events during scarp formation. All age determination approaches continue to indicate that lunar lobate scarps were active in the late Copernican, with some scarps possibly experiencing activity within the last 100 Ma.
Scintillations (high frequency variations) observed in the radio signal during the occultation of Voyage 1 by Titan (Hinsonand Tyler 1983) provide information concerning neutral atmospheric density fluctuations on scales of hundreds of meters to a few kilometers.
The pulsed X-ray emission of Vela X-1 during May 1978 and December-January 1978-1979 is investigated analytically on the basis of published satellite observations. The data are compiled in tables and graphs and discussed in detail, with reference to data for the entire 1975-1982 period. Variations in pulse frequency are identified on time scales from 2 to 2600 days; the lower nine octaves are characterized as white noise (or random walk in pulse frequency), while the longer-period variations are attributed to changes in neutron-star rotation rates.
HF wave propagation experiments were conducted on Mother-Daughter rockets in the polar ionosphere. Swept frequency transmissions from the Mother, nominally covering the range from 0.5 to 5 MHz in both CW and pulse modes, are received by the Daughter. In the most recent rocket of the series, the Mother also contained an AC electric field spectrometer covering the frequency range from 10 Hz to 100 kHz in four decade bands. The low frequency response of the ionosphere with respect to waves emitted from the onboard HF transmitter is examined.
To retrieve temperature and humidity profiles from SSM/T and AMSU, it is important to quantify the contribution of the Earth surface emission. So far, no global estimates of the land surface emissivities are available at SSM/T and AMSU frequencies and scanning conditions. The land surface emissivities have been previously calculated for the globe from the SSM/I conical scanner between 19 and 85 GHz. To analyze the feasibility of deriving SSM/T and AMSU land surface emissivities from SSM/I emissivities, the spectral and angular variations of the emissivities are studied, with the help of ground-based measurements, models and satellite estimates. Up to 100 GHz, for snow and ice free areas, the SSM/T and AMSU emissivities can be derived with useful accuracy from the SSM/I emissivities- The emissivities can be linearly interpolated in frequency. Based on ground-based emissivity measurements of various surface types, a simple model is proposed to estimate SSM/T and AMSU emissivities for all zenith angles knowing only the emissivities for the vertical and horizontal polarizations at 53 deg zenith angle. The method is tested on the SSM/T-2 91.655 GHz channels. The mean difference between the SSM/T-2 and SSM/I-derived emissivities is less than or equal to 0.01 for all zenith angles with an r.m.s. difference of approx. = 0.02. Above 100 GHz, preliminary results are presented at 150 GHz, based on SSM/T-2 observations and are compared with the very few estimations available in the literature.
Studies of wideband plasma wave data from the ISEE 1 and ISEE 2 spacecraft are reported which reveal that whistler-mode chorus emissions in the earth's outer magnetosphere are often accompanied by high-frequency bursts of electrostatic noise. The chorus features that correlate to the electrostatic bursts have a hook-like frequency-time variation in the frequency range 200-400 Hz, and the associated electrostatic bursts have a frequency range of about 4-8 kHz. In some cases these electrostatic bursts have a harmonic frequency structure with a frequency spacing corresponding to the chorus frequency. This harmonic structure apparently results from the fact that the burst intensity is modulated at the chorus frequency.
The percentage of cold clouds less than or equal to 240 K was tabulated from Nimbus-5 data in 2 deg latitude-longitude squares over tropical oceans in the North Atlantic and Pacific for day (1130 LST) and night (2330 LST). The maximum percentage and amplitude of the diurnal variation are in the eastern Atlantic and Pacific. Day percentages are higher than at night in the entire 6-10 deg N belt of the Atlantic. Weaker night maxima are to the north and south of this belt. In the Pacific, the distribution of day and night predominance is more variable.
The development of a theory of the evolution of the climate of the earth over millions of years can be subdivided into three fundamental, nested, problems: (1) to establish by equilibrium climate models (e.g., general circulation models) the diagnostic relations, valid at any time, between the fast-response climate variables (i.e., the 'weather statistics') and both the prescribed external radiative forcing and the prescribed distribution of the slow response variables (e.g., the ice sheets and shelves, the deep ocean state, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration); (2) to construct, by an essentially inductive process, a model of the time-dependent evolution of the slow-response climatic variables over time scales longer than the damping times of these variables but shorter than the time scale of tectonic changes in the boundary conditions (e.g., altered geography and elevation of the continents, slow outgassing, and weathering) and ultra-slow astronomical changes such as in the solar radiative output; and (3) to determine the nature of these ultra-slow processes and their effects on the evolution of the equilibrium state of the climatic system about which the above time-dependent variations occur. All three problems are discussed in the context of the theory of the Quaternary climate, which will be incomplete unless it is embedded in a more general theory for the fuller Cenozoic that can accommodate the onset of the ice-age fluctuations. We construct a simple mathematical model for the Late Cenozoic climatic changes based on the hypothesis that forced and free variations of the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (notably CO2), coupled with changes in the deep ocean state and ice mass, under the additional 'pacemaking' influence of earth-orbital forcing, are primary determinants of the climate state over this period. Our goal is to illustrate how a single model governing both very long term variations and higher frequency oscillatory variations in the Pleistocene can be formulated with relatively few adjustable parameters.
Low frequency power spectrum of cosmic ray variations during igy