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Development of Advanced, Radiation Resistant, Optical-based Detector Technology for Future Experiments.

The primary objective of this project has been to advance the design of high-performance electromagnetic (EM) calorimeters for future particle physics experiments, to identify and measure the timing, position and energy of electrons, positrons and gamma rays, particularly in high-luminosity environments with intense radiation and pileup conditions. To meet such challenges, the proposed research has focused on the development of ultra-compact, radiation-hard calorimeter modules, to provide excellent timing, spatial, and energy resolution. The work aligns with the DOE’s Basic Research Needs (BRN) for High Energy Physics (HEP) Instrumentation and the research team contributes actively to the Coordinating Panel on Advanced Detectors (CPAD) RDC9 calorimetry collaboration in the USA and the European Committee on Future Accelerators (ECFA) DRD-CALO calorimetry collaboration at CERN, the European Laboratory for Particle Physics located in Geneva, Switzerland. The research builds on the RADiCAL (radiation-hard, ultra-compact) modular sampling calorimeter approach, developed by the research team, which employs dense and very bright optical materials such as LYSO:Ce scintillator plates that are interleaved with very dense tungsten plates to minimize detector size while optimizing performance. The modules are comparable in size to a human index finger, dimensionally 14 mm x 14 mm in cross section and 135 mm in length. And despite the small size, the structure is capable of providing excellent timing and energy resolution. This is facilitated through the use of specialized quartz capillaries filled with wavelength-shifting filaments, positioned at various depths along the length of a module, to collect and guide light signals to silicon photomultipliers (SiPMs) which detect and convert the optical signals to electronic signals for analysis. The primary goals of this project have been: (1) Achieve a timing resolution to σ t ≤ 30 ps for high-energy electrons and photons, important for their association with specific events produced in colliding-beam experiments and for the detection of decays-in-flight of long-lived particles. The project has achieved this goal in beam tests of a single RADiCAL module at CERN, during which a timing resolution of σ t = 27 ps was measured for electrons of energy E = 150 GeV. Based upon a mathematical fit to the data measured over a broad energy range from low energy to high energy, a resolution of σ t ≤ 18 ps has been estimated for electrons of very high (TeV) energy. From these measurements and with further expected technical improvements, the timing resolution should reach σ t ≤ 10 ps, important for searches for discovery physics in upcoming and future experiments. (2) Achieve an energy resolution of σ E / E ≤ 10% / $\sqrt{E}$. The project has yet to achieve this goal, but is close to it, having measured a value of σ E / E ≤ 15.9% / $\sqrt{E}$ using a modular array. Ultimately, the resolution goal is expected to be reached by adjustments to material thicknesses within the modules, which will improve the sampling fraction to measure more precisely the shower energy for lower energy particles. The versatility of the modular RADiCAL approach enables the testing of advanced materials, photosensors and electronics, developed in collaboration with CPAD RDC and ECFA DRD-CALO groups. The structure can distinguish electrons, positrons and gamma rays from hadrons and muons and beam-induced backgrounds, making it a valuable tool in a variety of detector environments, including future circular colliders (FCC-ee, FCC-hh) proposed for the European Laboratory for Particle Physics (CERN), the muon-collider proposed for Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab), and searches for new physics in beam-dump, fixed target and forward-physics experiments. And, while designed with particle physics applications in mind, the technologies developed in this project have the potential for application more broadly in particle and nuclear physics, materials science, and medical physics, underscoring the far-reaching potential of this line of instrumentation research and development.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION

Historical and Future Windstorms in the Northeastern United States

Large-scale windstorms represent an important atmospheric hazard in the Northeastern US (NE) and are associated with substantial socioeconomic losses. Regional simulations performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using lateral boundary conditions from three Earth System Models (ESMs: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and Max Planck Institute (MPI)) are used to quantify possible future changes in windstorm characteristics and/or changes in the parent cyclone types responsible for windstorms. WRF nested within MPI ESM best represents important aspects of historical windstorms and the cyclone types responsible for generating windstorms compared with a reference simulation performed with the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the historical climate. The spatial scale and frequency of the largest windstorms in each simulation defined using the greatest extent of exceedance of local 99.9th percentile wind speeds (U > U999) plus 50-year return period wind speeds (U50,RP) do not exhibit secular trends. Projections of extreme wind speeds and windstorm intensity/frequency/geolocation and dominant parent cyclone type associated with windstorms vary markedly across the simulations. Only the MPI nested simulations indicate statistically significant differences in windstorm spatial scale, frequency and intensity over the NE in the future and historical periods. This model chain, which also exhibits the highest fidelity in the historical climate, yields evidence of future increases in 99.9th percentile 10 m height wind speeds, the frequency of simultaneous U > U999 over a substantial fraction (5–25%) of the NE and the frequency of maximum wind speeds above 22.5 ms−1. These geophysical changes, coupled with a projected doubling of population, leads to a projected tripling of a socioeconomic loss index, and hence risk to human systems, from future windstorms.

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)

CCUS Perspectives: Assessing Historical Contexts, Current Realities, and Future Prospects

CCUS technologies are crucial solutions for mitigating climate change by reducing CO2 emissions from industrial operations and energy sectors. This review critically examines the current state of CCUS technologies, and highlights advancements, challenges, regulatory frameworks, and future directions. It comprehensively analyzes carbon capture methods, such as pre-combustion, post-combustion, and oxy-fuel combustion capture, while comparing their efficiencies and limitations. The review also explores carbon utilization techniques, such as direct and indirect utilization, emphasizing their potential applications and technological constraints. Additionally, it assesses various carbon storage methods, focusing on geological, ocean, and mineralization storage, and discusses their capacity, feasibility, and environmental implications. The study reviews the policy and regulatory frameworks, economic viability, market trends, and environmental sustainability of CCUS. By identifying research gaps and recommending future research priorities, this review aims to guide the development of more efficient/effective, and cost-effective CCUS technology, ensuring their role in a sustaining low-carbon future. This review provides a forward-looking perspective, a critical and interdisciplinary analysis that assesses the current state of CCUS technologies, and further provides a roadmap for future development.

Energy & Fuels

Expert Elicitation for Tidal Energy Levelized Cost of Energy: Present and Future

In accordance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA), H2O annually assesses marine energy technology development resulting from government-funded research and development programs and strategy. For GPRA reporting, H2O uses the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) - which represents the total system cost per unit of energy produced - to measure the progression of marine energy technology development, assess the impact of their research and development programs, and identify future research priorities. To support H2O's GPRA reporting requirements and inform future strategy, the National Laboratory of the Rockies conducted a tidal energy LCOE expert elicitation study to estimate present and future LCOE[AB2.1]. This report describes the motivation and background for the elicitation study, the methodology used to conduct the study, and the study results. It also provides future recommendations for accelerated tidal energy LCOE reduction based on feedback from study participants.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER

FUTURE EXPLORATION AND UTILIZATION OF OUTER SPACE

The assessment of the future of astronautics is the task of a prophet, a profession not recognized as an established branch of science. Prophecy is an art rather than a profession and there are no established methods of procedure. Knowledge of specific developments in progress and past experience give a reasonable basis for extrapolating a few years ahead. For the more distant future, imagination, intuition, and faith are the only tools, and these are inevitably colored by the nature and environment of the prophet. He may be naturally an optimist or a pessimist. The seeker for financial support and the salesman will see the future very differently than the engineer responsible for the success of launching vehicles on difficult missions. Some of the problems of predicting future developments may be appreciated by looking backward in time by 52 years.

ECHO I SATELLITE

Future Exploration and Utilization of Outer Space

The assessment of the future of astronautics is the task of a prophet, a profession not recognized as an established branch of science. Prophecy is an art rather than a profession and there are no established methods of procedure. Knowledge of specific developments in progress and past experience give a reasonable basis for extrapolating a few years ahead. For the more distant future, imagination, intuition, and faith are the only tools, and these are inevitably colored by the nature and environment of the prophet. He may be naturally an optimist or a pessimist. The seeker for financial support and the salesman will see the future very differently than the engineer responsible for the success of launching vehicles on difficult missions. Some of the problems of predicting future developments may be appreciated by looking backward in time by 52 years.

Dryden, H. L.

Space tools and support equipment - Current technology and future requirements.

Space tools and supporting equipment developed for past and current missions are summarized, along with projected tool and powered maneuvering aid requirements for future earth orbital missions. These tools, designed for functions such as general maintenance, replacement and repair, are reviewed and classified according to their intended application. A synopsis of the Skylab on-orbit maintenance requirements is presented, and the tools necessary for accomplishing the maintenance functions are listed. The proposed missions for future Earth Orbital Systems are summarized, and the potential functions (e.g., Remove/Replace, Cargo Transfer, etc.) are outlined. The current tool and support technology status is compared with future requirements for crew equipment to determine if these future requirements can be adequately satisfied. Of particular interest is a discussion of the augmentation of the astronaut with teleoperators (remote manipulator systems).

Brown, N. E.

Economic effects of propulsion system technology on existing and future transport aircraft

The results of an airline study of the economic effects of propulsion system technology on current and future transport aircraft are presented. This report represents the results of a detailed study of propulsion system operating economics. The study has four major parts: (1) a detailed analysis of current propulsion system maintenance with respect to the material and labor costs encountered versus years in service and the design characteristics of the major elements of the propulsion system of the B707, b727, and B747. (2) an analysis of the economic impact of a future representative 1979 propulsion system is presented with emphasis on depreciation of investment, fuel costs and maintenance costs developed on the basis of the analysis of the historical trends observed. (3) recommendations concerning improved methods of forecasting the maintenance cost of future propulsion systems are presented. A detailed method based on the summation of the projected labor and material repair costs for each major engine module and its installation along with a shorter form suitable for quick, less detailed analysis are presented, and (4) recommendations concerning areas where additional technology is needed to improve the economics of future commercial propulsion systems are presented along with the suggested economic benefits available from such advanced technology efforts.

Sallee, G. P.

Advanced space system concepts and their orbital support needs (1980 - 2000). Volume 4: Detailed data. Part 2: Program plans and common support needs (a study of the commonality of space vehicle applications to future national needs

The methodology of alternate world future scenarios is utilized for selecting a plausible, though not advocated, set of future scenarios each of which results in a program plan appropriate for the respective environment. Each such program plan gives rise to different building block and technology requirements, which are analyzed for common need between the NASA and the DoD for each of the alternate world scenarios. An essentially invariant set of system, building block, and technology development plans is presented at the conclusion, intended to allow protection of most of the options for system concepts regardless of what the actual future world environment turns out to be. Thus, building block and technology needs are derived which support: (1) each specific world scenario; (2) all the world scenarios identified in this study; or (3) generalized scenarios applicable to almost any future environment. The output included in this volume consists of the building blocks, i.e.: transportation vehicles, orbital support vehicles, and orbital support facilities; the technology required to support the program plans; identification of their features which could support the DoD and NASA in common; and a complete discussion of the planning methodology.

Bekey, I.

The future of satellite remote sensing: A worldwide assessment and prediction

A frame-work in which to assess and predict the future prospects for satellite remote sensing markets is provided. The scope of the analysis is the satellite-related market for data, equipment, and services. It encompasses both domestic and international markets and contains an examination of the various market characteristics by market segment (e.g., Federal Government, State and Local Governments, Academic Organizations, Industrial Companies, and Individuals) and primary applications areas (e.g., Geology, Forestry, Land Resource Management, Agriculture and Cartography). The forecasts are derived from an analysis of both U.S. and foreign market data. The evolution and current status of U.S. and Foreign markets to arrive at market growth rates is evaluated. Circumstances and events which are likely to affect the future market development are examined. A market growth scenario is presented that is consistent with past data sales trends and takes into account the dynamic nature of the future satellite remote sensing market. Several areas of current and future business opportunities available in this market are discussed. Specific worldwide forecasts are presented in three market sectors for the period 1980 to 1990.

Spann, G. W.

Challenges for future space power systems

The future appears rich in missions that will extend the frontiers of knowledge, human presence in space, and opportunities for profitable commerce. The key to success of these ventures is the availability of plentiful, cost effective electric power and assured, low cost access to space. While forecasts of space power needs are problematic, an assessment of future needs based on terrestrial experience was made. These needs fall into three broad categories-survival, self sufficiency and industrialization. The cost of delivering payloads to orbital locations from low earth orbit (LEO) to Mars was determined and future launch cost reductions projected. From these factors, then, projections of the performance necessary for future solar and nuclear space power options were made. These goals are largely dependent upon orbital location and energy storage needs.

Brandhorst, Henry W., Jr.

Power technologies and the space future

Advancements in space power and energy technologies are critical to serve space development needs and help solve problems on Earth. The availability of low cost power and energy in space will be the hallmark of this advance. Space power will undergo a dramatic change for future space missions. The power systems which have served the U.S. space program so well in the past will not suffice for the missions of the future. This is especially true if the space commercialization is to become a reality. New technologies, and new and different space power architectures and topologies will replace the lower power, low-voltage systems of the past. Efficiencies will be markedly improved, specific powers will be greatly increased, and system lifetimes will be markedly extended. Space power technology is discussed - its past, its current status, and predictions about where it will go in the future. A key problem for power and energy is its cost of affordability. Power must be affordable or it will not serve future needs adequately. This aspect is also specifically addressed.

Faymon, Karl A.

Future experimental needs in low-speed aerodynamics

This paper presents a review of future experimental needs in low-speed aerodynamic research. Emphasis is on fixed wind aircraft and the review uses the anticipated technical needs of subsonic transport aircraft and supersonic transport aircraft to establish and prioritize future low-speed experimental needs and directions. These technical needs, combined with a continuing improvement in computational capability, suggest changes in the experimental capabilities and adjustments in the use of existing capabilities. Three factors emerge that will have a major influence on the future directions for low-speed aerodynamic research: a recognition of the significance of three-dimensional high-lift aerodynamics, the increasing importance of aeroacoustics, and additional emphasis on the importance of propulsion/airframe integration. These analyses are combined with a review of the status of experimental capabilities in low-speed aerodynamic research to suggest future directions in the development and utilization of advanced instrumentation, test techniques, and test capabilities.

Olson, Lawrence E.

Space robotics: Recent accomplishments and opportunities for future research

The Langley Guidance, Navigation, and Control Technical Committee (GNCTC) was one of six technical committees created in 1991 by the Chief Scientist, Dr. Michael F. Card. During the kickoff meeting Dr. Card charged the chairmen to: (1) establish a cross-Center committee; (2) support at least one workshop in a selected discipline; and (3) prepare a technical paper on recent accomplishments in the discipline and on opportunities for future research. The Guidance, Navigation, and Control Committee was formed and selected for focus on the discipline of Space robotics. This report is a summary of the committee's assessment of recent accomplishments and opportunities for future research. The report is organized as follows. First is an overview of the data sources used by the committee. Next is a description of technical needs identified by the committee followed by recent accomplishments. Opportunities for future research ends the main body of the report. It includes the primary recommendation of the committee that NASA establish a national space facility for the development of space automation and robotics, one element of which is a telerobotic research platform in space. References 1 and 2 are the proceedings of two workshops sponsored by the committee during its June 1991, through May 1992 term. The focus of the committee for the June 1992 - May 1993 term will be to further define to the recommended platform in space and to add an additional discipline which includes aircraft related GN&C issues. To the latter end members performing aircraft related research will be added to the committee. (A preliminary assessment of future opportunities in aircraft-related GN&C research has been included as appendix A.)

Montgomery, Raymond C.

Space station evolution: Planning for the future

The need for permanently manned presence in space has been recognized by the United States and its international partners for many years. The development of this capability was delayed due to the concurrent recognition that reusable earth-to-orbit transportation was also needed and should be developed first. While the decision to go ahead with a permanently manned Space Station was on hold, requirements for the use of the Station were accumulating as ground-based research and the data from unmanned spacecraft sparked the imagination of both scientists and entrepreneurs. Thus, by the time of the Space Station implementation decision in the early 1980's, a variety of disciplines, with a variety of requirements, needed to be accommodated on one Space Station. Additional future requirements could be forecast for advanced missions that were still in the early planning stages. The logical response was the development of a multi-purpose Space Station with the ability to evolve on-orbit to new capabilities as required by user needs and national or international decisions, i.e., to build an evolutionary Space Station. Planning for evolution is conducted in parallel with the design and development of the baseline Space Station. Evolution planning is a strategic management process to facilitate change and protect future decisions. The objective is not to forecast the future, but to understand the future options and the implications of these on today's decisions. The major actions required now are: (1) the incorporation of evolution provisions (hooks and scars) in the baseline Space Station; and (2) the initiation of an evolution advanced development program.

Diaz, Alphonso V.

Need for active structures in future large IR and sub-mm telescopes

The potential of active structures technology for future IR and sub-mm telescopes deployed in space is discussed. A space infrared telescope with an aperture of at least 8 m, operating at about 50 k with surface precision better that 0.5 microns is required for future work in space IR and sub-mm astronomy. Telescope parameters, noise, and sensitivity are discussed. The effects of large scale figure errors are examined and conceptual designs of future space IR and sub-mm telescopes are presented. Possible uses of active structures technology and feedback control in future IR and sub-mm space observatories are suggested.

Rapp, Donald

Advanced Aerospace Tribological Systems - Current Status and Future Technology Needs

The state of the art of space and aeronautics tribology, the current and future technology problems, and perceived needs for future missions are discussed. Mechanisms of liquid and solid lubrication, and liquid- and solid-lubrication factors are examined. Such current and future tribological problem areas as aerospace plane, space simulation, and accelerated testing are addressed. Consideration is also given to the following novel lubrication technologies: inerted lubrication systems, mist lubrication, vapor deposition, catalytically gas-generated carbon, dense thin films of solid lubricants, powder lubrication, and gas and magnetic bearings. Recommendations for ensuring the success of current and future space and aeronautics missions are presented.

Fusaro, Robert L.

Space facilities: Meeting future needs for research, development, and operations

The National Facilities Study (NFS) represents an interagency effort to develop a comprehensive and integrated long-term plan for world-class aeronautical and space facilities that meet current and projected needs for commercial and government aerospace research and development and space operations. At the request of NASA and the DOD, the National Research Council's Committee on Space Facilities has reviewed the space related findings of the NFS. The inventory of more than 2800 facilities will be an important resource, especially if it continues to be updated and maintained as the NFS report recommends. The data in the inventory provide the basis for a much better understanding of the resources available in the national facilities infrastructure, as well as extensive information on which to base rational decisions about current and future facilities needs. The working groups have used the inventory data and other information to make a set of recommendations that include estimates of cast savings and steps for implementation. While it is natural that the NFS focused on cost reduction and consolidations, such a study is most useful to future planning if it gives equal weight to guiding the direction of future facilities needed to satisfy legitimate national aspirations. Even in the context of cost reduction through facilities closures and consolidations, the study is timid about recognizing and proposing program changes and realignments of roles and missions to capture what could be significant savings and increased effectiveness. The recommendations of the Committee on Space Facilities are driven by the clear need to be more realistic and precise both in recognizing current incentives and disincentives in the aerospace industry and in forecasting future conditions for U.S. space activities.

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