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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

GCAM v4.3 SSP-RCP-GCM Output Products

Supplemental dataset to: Graham N.T., M.I. Hejazi, M. Chen, E. Davies, J.A. Edmonds, S.H. Kim, and S. Turner, et al. 2020. "Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 1:Article No. 014007. PNNL-SA-151297. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b This analysis makes deterministic classifications of how, when water resources are limited and constrained, the human and climate systems interact. The relative effects of both systems on water scarcity are quantified at global and basin scales across 15 global futures that include five different socioeconomic conditions (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) and four different climatic conditions (the Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs). These 15 scenarios are used to first analyze a 'Human Alone' component by isolating the human impact on future scarcity. This is accomplished by holding all climate variables to their 2005 levels while altering socioeconomic growth and technological change. General circulation model (GCM) derived climate impacts for five models are applied to establish 75 'Human and Climate' scenarios which allows for the quantification of climate impacts. Climatic impacts to water supply, agricultural productivity and change, hydropower availability, and building energy demands are applied from 5 different bias-corrected GCMs to make a suite of 75 climate runs. By subtracting the human derived impacts from the 'Human Alone' scenarios, from the 'Human and Climate' scenarios the climate impact is isolated. First, the drivers of future water scarcity are evaluated by isolating the impacts that both humans and climate have while accounting for feedbacks between humans, energy, and land. Secondly, the simultaneous impacts that human and climate systems have on water scarcity are analyzed by determining whether each system is increasing or decreasing scarcity in all global water basins. Below we describe the GCAM model, the scenario components, climate derived impacts, and the calculations of scarcity changes and attribution. This study uses the global change assessment model (GCAM), with inclusions of water constraints to both renewable and nonrenewable sources of water, to investigate the relative contributions of climate and human systems on water scarcity regionally and globally under a wide range of scenarios. GCAM links socioeconomics, the energy system, land-use change, climate, and the water sector. GCAM is a market-equilibrium model that allows for prices to be adjusted within each time step to ensure that the supply and demand of goods and services remains equilibrated at each time step allowing for simultaneous market clearing across sectors. This study accounts for a limited supply of water by employing cost resource curves across all 235 basins that follow a logit formulation to determine the share of each water source (renewable surface water, nonrenewable groundwater, and desalinated water) needed to meet the water demands within all basins. As depletion of various water sources increases the extraction price increases, which leads to compounding price increases on the goods and services that require higher-priced water sources.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Riparian vegetation shade restoration and loss effects on recent and future stream temperatures

River temperatures are expected to increase this century harming species requiring cold-water habitat unless restoration activities protect or improve habitat availability. Local shading by riparian vegetation can cool water temperatures, but uncertainty exists over the scaling of this local effect to larger spatial extents. Here, we evaluate this issue using a regional spatial stream network temperature model with covariates representing shade effects to predict mean August stream temperatures across 78,195 km of tributaries flowing into the Columbia River in the northwestern United States. We evaluate nine scenarios predicting stream temperatures for three riparian shade conditions (current, restored, and no riparian vegetation) within three different climate periods (2000s, 2040s, and 2080s). Results suggest riparian shade restoration (2000s climate) could decrease mean August stream temperatures by 0.62°C across the study network. Under the same restored shade conditions, temperature predictions for tributaries at their confluence with the Columbia River range from 0.02 to 2.08°C cooler than under current shade conditions. The climate warming effect predicted for the 2040s and 2080s, however, is greater than the cooling effect from restoring riparian shade. Streams less than 10-m bankfull width cooled more frequently with riparian shade restoration. In Oregon, the proportion of fish habitat for salmon and trout rearing and migration that meet temperature numeric water quality criteria could be increased by 20% under restored shade conditions although net habitat declines may still occur in the future. We conclude riparian vegetation restoration could partially mitigate future warming and help maintain cold-water habitats that function as thermal refuges if implemented strategically.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Supporting Risk-informed Decision-making During Reactor Accidents

Uncertainty in severe accident evolution and outcome is driven by event bifurcations that represent distinctive challenges to defensive layers and tend to promote the emergence of discrete classes of core damage and accident risk. This discrete set of "attractor" states arise from the complex networks of competing physical phenomena and conditional event cascades occurring as the overall system degrades – a process that yields increasing degrees of freedom and accident progression pathways. Characterization of these event spaces has proven elusive to more traditional data interrogation methods, but proves tractable by application of more advanced data collection and machine learning approaches. Through application of these approaches we demonstrate a conceptual framework that enables real-time/robust, risk-informed decision-making support to improve accident mitigation and encourage “graceful exits” during low probability, extreme events limiting accident consequences. In this analysis, we simulated over 8,000 short-term station blackout (STSBO) accidents with the state-of-the-art integral severe accident code, MELCOR, and demonstrate the potential for ML approaches to predict simulation outcomes. We chose to pair ML tools with interpretable and mechanistic event trees for the considered STSBO accident space to predict the likelihood of future event paths along the tree. In addition to the current state of the system, we use information from recent trajectories of temperature, pressure, and other physical features, combining both the current state and past trajectories to forecast future event paths. Finally, we simulate the random injection of variable amounts of water to quantify the efficacy of available actions at reducing risks along the many branches in the event tree. We identify scenarios and windows of opportunity to mitigate risk as well as scenarios in which such actions are unlikely to alter the accident end-state.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1979

Analyzing water resources

Report on water resources discusses problems in water measurement demand, use, and availability. Also discussed are sensing accuracies, parameter monitoring, and status of forecasting, modeling, and future measurement techniques.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2021

Soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks mitigate declining water availability in drylands

Global warming alters surface water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P–E) and hence freshwater resources. However, the influence of land–atmosphere feedbacks on future P–E changes and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here we demonstrate that soil moisture (SM) strongly impacts future P–E changes, especially in drylands, by regulating evapotranspiration and atmospheric moisture inflow. Using modelling and empirical approaches, we find a consistent negative SM feedback on P–E, which may offset ~60% of the decline in dryland P–E otherwise expected in the absence of SM feedbacks. The negative feedback is not caused by atmospheric thermodynamic responses to declining SM; rather, reduced SM, in addition to limiting evapotranspiration, regulates atmospheric circulation and vertical ascent to enhance moisture transport into drylands. This SM effect is a large source of uncertainty in projected dryland P–E changes, underscoring the need to better constrain future SM changes and improve the representation of SM–atmosphere processes in models.

precipitation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large-scale paleo water-table rise in a deep desert aquifer recorded by dissolved noble gases

Illuminating past hydrological and climatological conditions in arid regions may provide insights into future trends in groundwater availability. The main objective of this study is to explore paleorecharge processes in the deep regional Nubian Sandstone Aquifer (NSA), which stretches below the hyperarid deserts of the Sinai Peninsula (Egypt) and the Negev (Israel), using dissolved noble gas data. Extremely high amounts of dissolved excess air (Ne concentrations up to 4 × solubility equilibrium) were observed in the ancient ( 81 Kr-depleted) groundwater that was recharged during past pluvial epochs in the basin. Here, the observed unique excess air signal and the clear spatiotemporal structure of the noble gas compositions in the aquifer are hypothesized to reflect two major characteristics of the groundwater system: (a) large-scale, long-term rises in the water table that facilitate the entrapment and dissolution of air bubbles under increased hydrostatic pressure, and (b) the geological settings in the southern recharge area in Sinai, including an almost horizontal position of the layers and intercalation of low-permeability rock formations within the aquifer, which inefficiently reject air bubbles from groundwater, thereby allowing for substantial entrapment of bubbles that dissolve as the water table rises. Enhanced dissolution of entrapped air was also observed in other paleo-groundwater-containing regional sandstone aquifers across North Africa, which, together with the recent findings from the NSA, suggest that largescale water table fluctuations have likely extensively occurred during past pluvial periods over these (and possibly other) arid regions. A preliminary assessment of noble gas recharge temperatures (NGTs) indicates an apparent decoupling of surface and water table temperatures in the case of deep aquifers with a thick (hundreds of m) unsaturated zone. This observed decoupling calls for a re-evaluation of previously obtained NGT records and a need for future work to consider the modification of NGTs due to soil air fractionation and geothermal heating of the underlying deep unsaturated zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Multi-Satellite Assimilation and Modeling Platform to Construct a Global and Complete view of the Hydrologic Cycle

What captivates me about the research field of satellite remote sensing of the earth system science is the opportunity to help human beings by addressing challenging questions related to the current and future availability of natural resources for domestic, agricultural, and industrial needs. For example, a continuously varying climate poses a threat to the water resource, not only in developing countries, but also in economically well-developed regions, creating the urgent need to characterize and predict its spatial and temporal availability. Specifically, my curiosity is driven by the challenge of merging cutting-edge space technology and earth observations (i.e., remote sensing) with state-of-the-art models for the purpose of improving our scientific knowledge about the variability and the change of the hydrologic cycle.The only practical way to observe the land surface processes (e.g., hydrologic cycle) on continental to global scales is via satellite remote sensing. Though remote sensing can make spatially comprehensive measurements of various components of the land surface system, it cannot provide direct information on the entire system, and the measurements represent only a snapshot in time. Physical based models may be used to continuously predict the temporal and spatial earth processes, but these predictions are often poor, due to model initialization, parameter and meteorological forcing errors, and inadequate model physics and/or resolution. Thus, an attractive prospect is to combine the strengths of land surface models and observations (and minimize the weaknesses of both) to provide a superior land surface state estimate. This is the goal of land surface data assimilation. Data assimilation provides a better estimate of the environmental states than either models or observations could individually do. The broad concept of data assimilation can be applied to various disciplines such as hydrology, ecology, environmental hazards, agriculture and economy.My research is targeted to integrating multiple satellite information having multi-sensor and multi-resolution assimilation within today's state-of-the-art hydrologic models. Multi-sensor and multi-resolution assimilation techniques represent a necessary milestone in future earth science applications because they offer the capability of comprehensively integrating disparate types of earth observations via deep-learning techniques. A multi-satellite assimilation and modeling platform will ultimately provide a robust and complete dataset to more fully understand earth's dynamics. In fact, the multi-satellite assimilation platforms build a comprehensive description of the earth processes that is geared toward accurately representing the complexity of natural and anthropogenic interactions in land surface processes. Most importantly, these platforms are suitable as decision support tools for applications across different aspects of earth system science.My recent work has focused on recent multi-sensor data assimilation techniques targeted at improving snow, soil moisture, groundwater, and terrestrial water storage hydrological states.

Girotto, Manuela↗
DOE OSTI2023

Forming the Future of Agrohydrology

Agricultural water management is increasingly prioritized throughout the world as producers are tasked with meeting growing crop demand while also managing environmental resources more sustainably. Likewise, agriculture is increasingly modifying the terrestrial water cycle. In response to these dynamics, the informal research discipline of agrohydrology continues to grow, fueled by a new era of rapidly evolving research tools and big data availability. While many researchers are actively invested in agrohydrology as a research topic, there remains a gap in formalizing this valuable discipline. This article aims to: (a) identify key research themes in agrohydrology, (b) conceptualize future research topics within each theme, and (c) estimate a timeframe before topics become pressing (i.e., before a topic becomes a limiting factor in advancing water management in an agricultural context). This commentary is meant to guide the trajectory of an evolving discipline of agrohydrology, the practice of agricultural water management at multiple nested scales, and the conversation of the invested public.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Noctis Landing: A Proposed Landing Site/Exploration Zone for Human Missions to the Surface of Mars

The proposed Noctis Landing Site/Exploration Zone (LS/EZ) is shown in Figure 1. Our preliminary study suggests that the proposed site meets all key Science and Resources (incl. Civil Engineering) requirements. The site is of significant interest, as the EZ not only offers a large number and wide range of regions of interest (ROIs) for short-term exploration, it is also located strategically at the crossroads between Tharsis and Valles Marineris, which are key for long-term exploration. The proposed site contains Regions of Interest (ROIs) that meet the following Science requirements: -­‐ Access to (1) deposits with a high preservation potential for evidence of past habitability and fossil biosignatures and (2) sites that are promising for present habitability. The site presents a wide variety of ROIs qith likely aqueous features and deposits, including sinous channels and valleys, slope gullies, lobate debris aprons, impact craters with lobate ejecta flows, and "bathtub ring" deposits. Neutron spectrometry also suggests hydrogen is present within the topmost 0.3 m or so of 4 to 10 wt% WEH (Water Equivalent Hydrogen). -­‐ Noachian and/or Hesperian rocks in a stratigraphic context that have a high likelihood of containing trapped atmospheric gases. Collapsed canyon rim material with preserved stratigraphy is abundantly present and accessible. -­‐ Exposures of at least two crustal units that have regional or global extents, that are suitable for radiometric dating, and that have relative ages that sample a significant range of martian geological time. Canyons floors in Ius Chasma, Tithonium Chasma, and plateau tops on Tharsis and in Sinai Planum offer access to distinct crustal units of regional extent. -­‐ Access to outcrops with linked morphological and/or geochemical signatures indicative of aqueous or groundwater/ mineral interactions. Iron and sulfur-bearing deposits on canyon floors in Noctis Labyrinthus, and in Ius Chasma (IC) and Tithonium Chasma (TC) offer many such outcrop options. -­‐ Identifiable stratigraphic contacts and cross-cutting relationships from which relative ages can be determined. In place and collapsed canyon walls in NL, TC, and IC offer such opportunities. -­‐ Other types of ROIs include access points to surrounding plateau top areas for longer term regional exploration. A key attribute of the proposed Noctic Landing site is its strategic location to allow the shortest possible surface excusions to Tharsis and Valles Marineris (VM). VM is the feature and region on Mars that exposes the longest record of Mars' geology and evolution through time. Tharsis is the region of Mars that has experienced the longest and most extensive volcanic history, and might still be volcanically active. Some of the youngest lava flows on Mars have been identified on the western flanks of the Tharsis Bulge, i.e., within driving range of future longrange (500 - 1000 km) pressurized rover traverses. The proposed site also contains ROIs that offer the following Resources (incl. Civil Engineering) characteristics: -­‐ Access to raw material that exhibits the potential to (1) be used as feedstock for water-generating in situ resource utilization (ISRU) processes and (2) yield significant quantities (greater than 100 MT) of water. The raw material is likely in the form of hydrated minerals, and possibly ice/regolith mix. The top of the raw material deposit is at the surface. -­‐ Access to a region where infrastructure can be emplaced or constructed. This region is less than 5 km from the LS and contains flat, stable terrain. The region exhibits evidence for an abundant source of loose regolith. Several deep pits in the area combined with the availability of sand suggests that some natural terrain features can be adapted for construction purposes. -­‐ Access to raw material that exhibits the potential to be used as metal feedstock for ISRU and construction purposes. Iron and sulfur-rich mineral surface deposits have been identified in CRISM data in many locations in this area. Noctis Landing is the lowest-altitude location on Mars that straddles both the Tharsis region (above average geothermal gradients) and Valles Marineris (minimal crustal thickness from surface (valley floor) to a subsurface liquid water table. Noctis Landing has the potential for being an ideal site for eventual deep drilling on Mars to access deep subsurface liquid water and potentially encountering extant life. Available data remains insufficient to fully qualify the Noctis Landing site. Additional remote sensing data (visible, Near and Mid-IR, and radar) and surface reconnaissance via a high-mobility robotic rover are recommended. In particular, it will be important to assess the trafficability of the site, and its potential for yielding water and metals as a resource. Access to plateau tops from the Noctis Landing site on the canyon floor should be demonstrated. Future exploration of the site would also be enhanced significantly by the availability of robotic (tele-operatable) surveying and sample-collecting drones. Testing of the use of such collaborative science and exploration technologies should be conducted at terrestrial sites such as the Haughton-Mars Project site on Devon Island, High Arctic, among others. Note: Noctis Landing is not an official Mars nomenclature name for this location. Because the area of the proposed LS/EZ had no name, and because it is close to Noctis Labyrinthus to the West while being distinct from it, the provisional name Noctis Landing is proposed. Noctis means night in Latin.

Lee, Pascal↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mine Water Use, Treatment, and Reuse in the United States: A Look at Current Industry Practices and Select Case Studies

Mining provides significant economic value while often impacting local water supplies and environments because of freshwater usage and waste disposal practices. In this paper we identify current practices in mine water, including how water is used in mining, influent and effluent water quality, treatment technologies, and end uses with the goal of informing future research on implementable, reliable, and cost-effective advanced water treatment in the mining sector. This study also reviews the available literature to broadly evaluate mining in the United States and performs a techno-economic assessment on water use and disposal for three detailed case studies applicable to lithium, uranium, and copper mines. These case studies highlight specific industry examples of distinct extraction methods, geographical regions, and mined commodities. Hypothetical scenarios based on case study baselines revealed potential impacts to mine water available for beneficial reuse through the use of novel water treatment technologies and alternate water management strategies. Finally, an assessment of national level impacts resulting from the reuse of treated mine source water is presented.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1977

Remote sensing: Snow monitoring tool for today and tomorrow

Various types of remote sensing are now available or will be in the future for snowpack monitoring. Aircraft reconnaissance is now used in a conventional manner by various water resources agencies to obtain information on snowlines, depth, and melting of the snowpack for forecasting purposes. The use of earth resources satellites for mapping snowcovered area, snowlines, and changes in snowcover during the spring has increased during the last five years. Gamma ray aircraft flights, although confined to an extremely low altitude, provide a means for obtaining valuable information on snow water equivalent. The most recently developed remote sensing technology for snow, namely, microwave monitoring, has provided initial results that may eventually allow us to infer snow water equivalent or depth, snow wetness, and the hydrologic condition of the underlying soil.

Rango, A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Public water supply infrastructure extensification and diversification in surface waters is insufficient to meet future demands in Texas

The data were developed to evaluate the capacity of existing and potential new surface water supply infrastructure to meet projected public water demands across districts in Texas under multiple future socioeconomic and climate scenarios. The database integrates hydrologic, water quality, infrastructure, energy, cost, demographic, and demand-projection information for candidate surface water supply locations. Candidate sites include stream reaches, waterbodies, reservoir surplus locations, and potential new reservoir sites. Water availability is characterized using historical and projected flow conditions, while site suitability is evaluated using five indicators: Water Availability Index (WAI), Water Quality Index (WQI), Energy Requirement Index (ERI), Water Treatment Cost (WTC), and Water Infrastructure Cost (WIC). The datasets include statewide candidate-site information, district-level demand projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), runoff-based allocation constraints, climate-stress metrics, and optimization outputs evaluating alternative infrastructure planning strategies. Optimization results compare Business-as-Usual (BAU) and All Surface Water (AllSW) demand-management approaches under both scaled and fixed cost-cap strategies. Associated validation datasets provide district-level feasibility assessments, infrastructure selection outcomes, cost-cap utilization, demand satisfaction metrics, and constraint diagnostics. Additional datasets quantify projected changes in storage and flow conditions as well as water availability stress for both existing and newly selected intake locations under the SSP5 scenario for mid-century and late-century climate conditions. Together, these datasets support assessment of the extent to which surface-water infrastructure expansion and diversification strategies can satisfy future public water demands while accounting for hydrologic, economic, and planning constraints across Texas. Dataset(s) Description Dataset_preoptimization.xlsx Comprehensive pre-optimization dataset containing candidate water-supply sites and associated hydrologic, water-quality, infrastructure, climate, demographic, runoff, and demand-projection variables used as inputs to the optimization analyses. Includes variable descriptions and the full statewide candidate-site database. District_level_site_selection.zip - Compressed archive containing all SSP-specific district-level optimization result files MESIO_ssp1_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP1 (MESIO). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. MESID_ssp2_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP2 (MESID). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. LCMRD_ssp3_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP3 (LCMRD). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. IRDev-Low_ssp4l_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP4-Low (IRDev-Low). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. IRDev-High_ssp4h_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP4-High (IRDev-High). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. RSIM_ssp5_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP5 (RSIM). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. tx_hydrological_stress.xlsx Hydrological stress dataset for existing and newly selected intake locations. Includes projected mid-century and late-century changes, gain/loss classifications, planning strategy information, and accompanying variable descriptions. Also includes water-stress metrics derived from historical and projected low-flow conditions.

Okoye, Perpetua I. (ORCID:0000000215545033)↗
NASA NTRS2012

Using EO-1 Hyperion to Simulate HyspIRI Products for a Coniferous Forest: The Fraction of PAR Absorbed by Chlorophyll (fAPAR(sub chl)) and Leaf Water Content(LWC)

This paper presents development of prototype products for terrestrial ecosystems in preparation for the future imaging spectrometer planned for the Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) mission. We present a successful demonstration example in a coniferous forest of two product prototypes: fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorbed by chlorophyll of a canopy (fAPARchl) and leaf water content (LWC), for future HyspIRI implementation at 60-m spatial resolution. For this, we used existing 30-m resolution imaging spectrometer data available from the Earth Observing One (EO-1) Hyperion satellite to simulate and prototype the level one radiometrically corrected radiance (L1R) images expected from the HyspIRI visible through shortwave infrared spectrometer. The HyspIRIlike images were atmospherically corrected to obtain surface reflectance and spectrally resampled to produce 60-m reflectance images for wavelength regions that were comparable to all seven of the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land bands. Thus, we developed MODIS-like surface reflectance in seven spectral bands at the HyspIRI-like spatial scale, which was utilized to derive fAPARchl and LWC with a coupled canopy-leaf radiative transfer model (PROSAIL2) for the coniferous forest. With this paper, we provide additional evidence that the fAPARchl product is more realistic in describing the physiologically active canopy than the traditional fAPAR parameter for the whole canopy (fAPARcanopy), and thus, it should replace it in ecosystem process models to reduce uncertainties in terrestrial carbon cycle and ecosystem studies.

Earth Observing One↗
NASA NTRS2022

Remote Sensing of Aerosol Water Fraction, Dry Size Distribution and Soluble Fraction Using Multi-Angle, Multi-Spectral Polarimetry

A framework to infer volume water fraction, soluble fraction and dry size distributions of fine-mode aerosol from multi-angle, multi-spectral polarimetry retrievals of column-averaged ambient aerosol properties is presented. The method is applied to observations of the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) obtained during two NASA aircraft campaigns, namely the Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) and the Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex). All aerosol retrievals are statistically evaluated using in situ data. Volume water fraction is inferred from the retrieved ambient real part of the refractive index, assuming a dry refractive index of 1.54 and by applying a volume mixing rule to obtain the effective ambient refractive index. The uncertainties in inferred volume water fraction resulting from this simplified model are discussed and estimated to be lower than 0.2 and decreasing with increasing volume water fraction. The daily mean retrieved volume water fractions correlate well with the in situ values with a mean absolute difference of 0.09. Polarimeter-retrieved ambient effective radius for daily data is shown to increase as a function of volume water fraction as expected. Furthermore, the effective variance of the size distributions also increases with increasing effective radius, which we show is consistent with an external mixture of soluble and insoluble aerosol. The relative variations of effective radius and variance over an observation period are then used to estimate the soluble fraction of the aerosol. Daily results of soluble fraction correlate well with in situ-observed sulfate mass fraction with a correlation coefficient of 0.79. Subsequently, inferred water and soluble fractions are used to derive dry fine-mode size distributions from their ambient counterparts. While dry effective radii obtained in situ and from RSP show similar ranges, in situ values are generally substantially smaller during the ACTIVATE deployments, which may be due to biases in RSP retrievals or in the in situ observations, or both. Both RSP and in situ observations indicate the dominance of aerosol with low hygroscopicity during the ACTIVATE and CAMP2Ex campaigns. Furthermore, RSP indicates a high degree of external mixing of particles with low and high hygroscopicity. These retrievals of fine-mode water volume fraction and soluble fraction may be used for the evaluation of water uptake in atmospheric models. Furthermore, the framework allows us to estimate the variation in the concentration of fine-mode aerosol larger than a specific dry radius limit, which can be used as a proxy for the variation in cloud condensation nucleus concentrations. This framework may be applied to multi-angle, multi-spectral satellite data expected to be available in the near future.

Amount of water in particulate matter↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Multi-Model Framework for Assessing Long- and Short-Term Climate Influences on the Electric Grid

Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from -8.5-16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from -1-2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $\$5$-$\$17$ billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $\$1$-$\$18$ billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

The stable isotopes of natural waters at the Marcell Experimental Forest

Here, we present a new data set from the Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF) that compiles water isotope measurements from multiple research catchments, some of which have been studied since the 1960s. The MEF is located in northern Minnesota, USA, and is home to heavily studied and monitored forests, streams, bogs, and fens. Peat-forming systems (bogs and fens) are an important component of the MEF landscape and have a profound impact on the water cycle in these catchments. Within the last decade, analysis of stable isotopes of water (expressed as δD and δ 18 O) has been implemented to characterize the different components of the water budget, and to allow researchers to look at catchment and peatland-specific hydrologic effects in the watershed. This δD and δ 18 O data set of natural waters from MEF catchments is primarily composed of measurements from three peatlands (S1, S2, S6) during an 11-year period. More recently collection and analysis were expanded to also include samples from the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) project in the S1 bog, peatlands S3, S4, S5, as well as nearby lakes. We establish a local meteoric water line by analyzing the isotopic composition of precipitation, which fills a void in regional meteoric water lines for Minnesota. Furthermore, we establish baseline isotopic composition for bog outlet streams, bog porewater, aquifer groundwater, overland flow, subsurface stormflow, and snowpack, as well as runoff from the SPRUCE experimental chambers. These data are publicly available and will be expanded upon in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Using EO-1 Hyperion to Simulate HyspIRI Products for a Coniferous Forest: The Fraction of PAR Absorbed by Chlorophyll (fAPAR(sub chl)) and Leaf Water Content (LWC)

This study presents development of prototype products for terrestrial ecosystems in preparation for the future imaging spectrometer planned for the Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) mission. We present a successful demonstration example in a coniferous forest of two product prototypes: fraction of photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) absorbed by chlorophyll of a canopy (fAPAR(sub chl)) and leaf water content (LWC), for future HyspIRI implementation at 60 m spatial resolution. For this, we used existing 30 m resolution imaging spectrometer data available from the Earth Observing One (EO-1) Hyperion satellite to simulate and prototype the level one radiometrically corrected radiance (L1R) images expected from the HyspIRI visible through shortwave infrared spectrometer. The HyspIRI-like images were atmospherically corrected to obtain surface reflectance, and spectrally resampled to produce 60 m reflectance images for wavelength regions that were comparable to all seven of the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land bands. Thus, we developed MODIS-like surface reflectance in seven spectral bands at the HyspIRI-like spatial scale, which was utilized to derive fAPARchl and LWC with a coupled canopy-leaf radiative transfer model (PROSAIL2) for the coniferous forest[1]. With this study, we provide additional evidence that the fAPARchl product is more realistic for describing the physiologically active canopy than the traditional fAPAR parameter for the whole canopy (fAPAR(sub canopy)), and thus should replace it in ecosystem process models to reduce uncertainties in terrestrial carbon cycle studies and ecosystem studies.

Zhang, Qingyuan↗