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Development of the Suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis for Identification of Top Injury Risks in Lunar Missions and Training

A new Exploration Extravehicular Activity Services (xEVAS) suit is being designed to replace the current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Artemis program to return astronauts to the lunar surface. This new suit will allow for increased range of motion compared to the current EMU and Apollo era suits and additional features will enhance the health and safety of exploration. With the design of lunar missions and the xEVAS suit progressing, it is important to consider possible injuries and injury mechanisms that could occur in the suit. To address these concerns, the suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis (IMEA) was developed to outline suited injury scenarios and rank them based on risk score. The IMEA documents possible scenarios and underlying mechanisms of injury. History has shown that more suit injuries occur during training than in flight; therefore, currently planned training events to prepare for lunar missions and tasks during lunar surface EVAs were considered. Each scenario is ranked with likelihood and consequence scorings based on our current understanding of suit and application of Artemis design reference missions. The scoring allowed identification of the high-risk cases that will drive further work in suited injury. Mechanisms of injury, injury outcomes, and mitigation strategies are evaluated within each scenario. The Suited Injury Summit was held on January 5, 2022, to vet the IMEA with external experts. This was an all-day virtual meeting with the suited injury team; ergonomists; suit engineers; safety engineers; the flight operations directorate; flight doctors; astronauts; astronaut strength, conditioning, and rehabilitation specialists (ASCRS); and external subject matter experts (SMEs). External SMEs consisted of surgeons with varying specialties. The intent of this meeting was to walk through the top injury risks identified in the analysis, identify any gaps that were not captured, and discuss mitigations. With participation from all groups, countless lessons-learned came from the Summit meeting. Using these, the top 10 risks have been identified: neutral buoyancy laboratory training, hand/glove injuries, poor suit fit, field training, specific EVA tasks/design of task, boots/ankle injuries, falls from heights, background radiation, repetitive contact, and ambulation/longdistance ambulation. Mitigation steps have also been determined for each of the top risks. The IMEA and documentation of top risks is a living document. Yearly meetings are planned to update the analysis and reevaluate top risks and mitigations. The IMEA is being used to drive work in suited injury, and this work will continue to evolve with IMEA and lunar mission updates.

Teresa Reiber↗

Development of the Suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis for Identification of Top Injury Risks in Lunar Missions and Training

A new Exploration Extravehicular Activity Suit (xEVAS) is being designed to replace the current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Artemis program to return astronauts to the lunar surface. This new suit will allow for increased range of motion compared the current EMU and Apollo era suits and will have additional features that will enhance the health and safety of exploration. With the design of lunar missions and the xEVAS progressing, it is important to consider possible injuries and injury mechanisms that could occur in the suit. To address these concerns, the suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis (IMEA) was developed to outline suited injury scenarios and rank them based on risk score. The IMEA documents possible scenarios and underlying mechanisms of injury while wearing an extravehicular activity (EVA) suit. Tasks during lunar surface EVA as well as training events to prepare for lunar missions were considered as history has shown that more suit injuries occur during training than in flight. Each scenario is ranked with a consequence and likelihood scoring based on our current understanding of the suit and Artemis design reference missions to identify high-risk cases that will drive further work in suited injury. Injuries, mechanisms of injury, and mitigation strategies are evaluated within each scenario. The Suited Injury Summit was held on January 5, 2022, to vet the IMEA with external experts. This was an all-day virtual meeting with the suited injury team, ergonomists, suit engineers, safety engineers, the flight operations directorate, flight doctors, astronauts, astronaut strength, conditioning, and rehabilitation specialists (ASCRS), and external subject matter experts (SMEs). External SMEs consisted of surgeons with varying specialties. The intent of this meeting was to walk through the top injury risks identified in the analysis, identify any gaps that were not captured, and discuss mitigations. With participation from all groups, countless lessons-learned came from the Summit meeting. Using the lessons-learned and discussion from the Summit, the top 10 risks have been identified: neutral buoyancy laboratory training, hand/glove injuries, poor suit fit, field training, specific EVA tasks/design of task, boots/ankle injuries, falls from heights, background radiation, repetitive contact, and ambulation/long-distance ambulation. Mitigation steps have also been determined for each of the top risks. The IMEA and documentation of top risks is a living document. Yearly meetings are planned to update the analysis and reevaluate top risks and mitigations. The IMEA is being used to drive work in suited injury, and this work will continue to evolve with IMEA and lunar mission updates.

Teresa Reiber↗

Development of the Suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis for Identification of Top Injury Risks in Lunar Missions and Training

A new Exploration Extravehicular Activity Suit (xEVAS) is being designed to replace the current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Artemis program to return astronauts to the lunar surface. This new suit will allow for increased range of motion compared the current EMU and Apollo era suits and will have additional features that will enhance the health and safety of exploration. With the design of lunar missions and the xEVAS progressing, it is important to consider possible injuries and injury mechanisms that could occur in the suit. To address these concerns, the suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis (IMEA) was developed to outline suited injury scenarios and rank them based on risk score. The IMEA documents possible scenarios and underlying mechanisms of injury while wearing an extravehicular activity (EVA) suit. Tasks during lunar surface EVA as well as training events to prepare for lunar missions were considered as history has shown that more suit injuries occur during training than in flight. Each scenario is ranked with a consequence and likelihood scoring based on our current understanding of the suit and Artemis design reference missions to identify high-risk cases that will drive further work in suited injury. Injuries, mechanisms of injury, and mitigation strategies are evaluated within each scenario. The Suited Injury Summit was held on January 5, 2022, to vet the IMEA with external experts. This was an all-day virtual meeting with the suited injury team, ergonomists, suit engineers, safety engineers, the flight operations directorate, flight doctors, astronauts, astronaut strength, conditioning, and rehabilitation specialists (ASCRS), and external subject matter experts (SMEs). External SMEs consisted of surgeons with varying specialties. The intent of this meeting was to walk through the top injury risks identified in the analysis, identify any gaps that were not captured, and discuss mitigations. With participation from all groups, countless lessons-learned came from the Summit meeting. Using the lessons-learned and discussion from the Summit, the top 10 risks have been identified: neutral buoyancy laboratory training, hand/glove injuries, poor suit fit, field training, specific EVA tasks/design of task, boots/ankle injuries, falls from heights, background radiation, repetitive contact, and ambulation/long-distance ambulation. Mitigation steps have also been determined for each of the top risks. The IMEA and documentation of top risks is a living document. Yearly meetings are planned to update the analysis and reevaluate top risks and mitigations. The IMEA is being used to drive work in suited injury, and this work will continue to evolve with IMEA and lunar mission updates.

Tessa Reiber↗

Space Shuttle Main Engine structural analysis and data reduction/evaluation. Volume 2: High pressure oxidizer turbo-pump turbine end bearing analysis

The high-pressure oxidizer turbopump (HPOTP) consists of two centrifugal pumps, on a common shaft, that are directly driven by a hot-gas turbine. Pump shaft axial thrust is balanced in that the double-entry main inducer/impeller is inherently balanced and the thrusts of the preburner pump and turbine are nearly equal but opposite. Residual shaft thrust is controlled by a self-compensating, non-rubbing, balance piston. Shaft hang-up must be avoided if the balance piston is to perform properly. One potential cause of shaft hang-up is contact between the Phase 2 bearing support and axial spring cartridge of the HPOTP main pump housing. The status of the bearing support/axial spring cartridge interface is investigated under current loading conditions. An ANSYS version 4.3, three-dimensional, finite element model was generated on Lockheed's VAX 11/785 computer. A nonlinear thermal analysis was then executed on the Marshall Space Flight Center Engineering Analysis Data System (EADS). These thermal results were then applied along with the interference fit and bolt preloads to the model as load conditions for a static analysis to determine the gap status of the bearing support/axial spring cartridge interface. For possible further analysis of the local regions of HPOTP main pump housing assembly, detailed ANSYS submodels were generated using I-DEAS Geomod and Supertab (Appendix A).

Sisk, Gregory A.↗

Fuel injector design for high temperature aircraft engine

The objective of the Innovative High Temperature Aircraft Engine Fuel Nozzle Program was to design and evaluate a nozzle capable of operating at a combustor inlet air temperature of 1600 F (1144 K) and a fuel temperature of 350 F (450 K). The nozzle was designed to meet the same performance requirements and fit within the size envelope of a current production dual orifice fuel nozzle. The design approach was to use improved thermal protection and fuel passage geometry in combination with fuel passage surface treatment to minimize coking at these extreme fuel and air temperatures. Heat transfer models of several fuel injector concepts were used to optimize the thermal protection, while sample tube coking tests were run to evaluate the effect of surface finish, coatings and tube material on the coking rate. Based on heat transfer analysis, additional air gaps, reduced fuel passage flow area and use of ceramic tip components reduced local fuel wetted wall temperatures by more than 200 F (100 K) when compared to a current production fuel nozzle. Sample tube coking test results showed the importance of surface finish on the fuel coking rate. Therefore, a one micro-inch (0.025 micron) roughness was specified for all fuel passage surfaces. A novel flow divider valve in the tip was also employed to reduce weight, allow room for additional thermal protection, and provide back pressure to reduce the risk of fuel vaporization. The fuel nozzle was fabricated and evaluated in a series of high temperature coking tests. Initial results of these tests indicate that thermal protection and surface treatments were partially successful in preventing nozzle fouling, but additional refinement of the internal flowpath is needed to prevent buildup of coke particles that partially blocked the spin slots which meter the nozzle fuel flow.

R. W. Stickles↗

COSMIC monthly progress report

Activities of the Computer Software Management and Information Center (COSMIC) are summarized for the month of April 1994. Tables showing the current inventory of programs available from COSMIC are presented and program processing and evaluation activities are summarized. Five articles were prepared for publication in the NASA Tech Brief Journal. These articles (included in this report) describe the following software items: GAP 1.0 - Groove Analysis Program, Version 1.0; SUBTRANS - Subband/Transform MATLAB Functions for Image Processing; CSDM - COLD-SAT Dynamic Model; CASRE - Computer Aided Software Reliability Estimation; and XOPPS - OEL Project Planner/Scheduler Tool. Activities in the areas of marketing, customer service, benefits identification, maintenance and support, and disseminations are also described along with a budget summary.

Source record↗

Fossil preservation and the stratigraphic ranges of taxa

The incompleteness of the fossil record hinders the inference of evolutionary rates and patterns. Here, we derive relationships among true taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and observed taxonomic ranges. We use these relationships to estimate original distributions of taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and completeness (proportion of taxa preserved), given only the observed ranges. No data on occurrences within the ranges of taxa are required. When preservation is random and the original distribution of durations is exponential, the inference of durations, preservability, and completeness is exact. However, reasonable approximations are possible given non-exponential duration distributions and temporal and taxonomic variation in preservability. Thus, the approaches we describe have great potential in studies of taphonomy, evolutionary rates and patterns, and genealogy. Analyses of Upper Cambrian-Lower Ordovician trilobite species, Paleozoic crinoid genera, Jurassic bivalve species, and Cenozoic mammal species yield the following results: (1) The preservation probability inferred from stratigraphic ranges alone agrees with that inferred from the analysis of stratigraphic gaps when data on the latter are available. (2) Whereas median durations based on simple tabulations of observed ranges are biased by stratigraphic resolution, our estimates of median duration, extinction rate, and completeness are not biased.(3) The shorter geologic ranges of mammalian species relative to those of bivalves cannot be attributed to a difference in preservation potential. However, we cannot rule out the contribution of taxonomic practice to this difference. (4) In the groups studied, completeness (proportion of species [trilobites, bivalves, mammals] or genera [crinoids] preserved) ranges from 60% to 90%. The higher estimates of completeness at smaller geographic scales support previous suggestions that the incompleteness of the fossil record reflects loss of fossiliferous rock more than failure of species to enter the fossil record in the first place.

NASA Program Exobiology↗

STS-114: Discovery Mission Status Briefing Tape 3

Paul Hill, STS-114 Lead Shuttle Flight Director is seen during this mission status briefing. He answers questions from the news media about the progress of the analysis of the gap fillers on the Space Shuttle Discovery. He is asked about the EVA's the astronauts may or may not perform to reach and repair the gap fillers.

Source record↗

Retrospective Analysis of Inflight Exercise Loading and Physiological Outcomes

Astronauts perform exercise throughout their missions to counter the health declines that occur as a result of long-term exposure to weightlessness. Although all astronauts perform exercise during their missions, the specific prescriptions, and thus the mechanical loading, differs among individuals. For example, inflight ground reaction force data indicate that subject-specific differences exist in foot forces created when exercising on the second-generation treadmill (T2) [1]. The current exercise devices allow astronauts to complete prescriptions at higher intensities, resulting in greater benefits with increased efficiency. Although physiological outcomes have improved, the specific factors related to the increased benefits are unknown. In-flight exercise hardware collect data that allows for exploratory analyses to determine if specific performance factors relate to physiological outcomes. These analyses are vital for understanding which components of exercise are most critical for optimal human health and performance. The relationship between exercise performance variables and physiological changes during flight has yet to be fully investigated. Identifying the critical performance variables that relate to improved physiological outcomes is vital for creating current and future exercise prescriptions to optimize astronaut health. The specific aims of this project are: 1) To quantify the exercise-related mechanical loading experienced by crewmembers on T2 and ARED during their mission on ISS; 2) To explore relationships between exercise loading variables, bone, and muscle health changes during the mission; 3) To determine if specific mechanical loading variables are more critical than others in protecting physiology; 4) To develop methodology for operational use in monitoring accumulated training loads during crew exercise programs. This retrospective analysis, which is currently in progress, is being conducted using data from astronauts that have flown long-duration missions onboard the ISS and have had access to exercise on the T2 and the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED). The specific exercise prescriptions vary for each astronaut. General exercise summary metrics will be developed to quantify exercise intensities, volumes, and durations for each subject. Where available, ground reaction force data will be used to quantify mechanical loading experienced by each astronaut. These inflight exercise metrics will be investigated relative to changes in pre- to post-flight bone and muscle health to identify which specific variables are related with improved or degraded physiological outcomes. The information generated from this analysis will fill gaps related to typical bone loading characterization, exercise performance capability, exercise volume and efficiency, and importance of exercise hardware. In addition, methods for quantification of exercise loading for use in monitoring the exercise programs during future space missions will be explored with the intent to inform exercise scientists and trainers as to the critical aspects of inflight exercise prescriptions.

Ploutz-Snyder, L. L.↗

High Efficiency Quantum Well Waveguide Solar Cells and Methods for Constructing the Same

Photon absorption, and thus current generation, is hindered in conventional thin-film solar cell designs, including quantum well structures, by the limited path length of incident light passing vertically through the device. Optical scattering into lateral waveguide structures provides a physical mechanism to increase photocurrent generation through in-plane light trapping. However, the insertion of wells of high refractive index material with lower energy gap into the device structure often results in lower voltage operation, and hence lower photovoltaic power conversion efficiency. The voltage output of an InGaAs quantum well waveguide photovoltaic device can be increased by employing a III-V material structure with an extended wide band gap emitter heterojunction. Analysis of the light IV characteristics reveals that non-radiative recombination components of the underlying dark diode current have been reduced, exposing the limiting radiative recombination component and providing a pathway for realizing solar-electric conversion efficiency of 30% or more in single junction cells.

Welser, Roger E.↗

Preparing for Mars: The Evolvable Mars Campaign 'Proving Ground' Approach

As the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) prepares to extend human presence beyond Low Earth Orbit, we are in the early stages of planning missions within the framework of an Evolvable Mars Campaign. Initial missions would be conducted in near-Earth cis-lunar space and would eventually culminate in extended duration crewed missions on the surface of Mars. To enable such exploration missions, critical technologies and capabilities must be identified, developed, and tested. NASA has followed a principled approach to identify critical capabilities and a "Proving Ground" approach is emerging to address testing needs. The Proving Ground is a period subsequent to current International Space Station activities wherein exploration-enabling capabilities and technologies are developed and the foundation is laid for sustained human presence in space. The Proving Ground domain essentially includes missions beyond Low Earth Orbit that will provide increasing mission capability while reducing technical risks. Proving Ground missions also provide valuable experience with deep space operations and support the transition from "Earth-dependence" to "Earth-independence" required for sustainable space exploration. A Technology Development Assessment Team identified a suite of critical technologies needed to support the cadence of exploration missions. Discussions among mission planners, vehicle developers, subject-matter-experts, and technologists were used to identify a minimum but sufficient set of required technologies and capabilities. Within System Maturation Teams, known challenges were identified and expressed as specific performance gaps in critical capabilities, which were then refined and activities required to close these critical gaps were identified. Analysis was performed to identify test and demonstration opportunities for critical technical capabilities across the Proving Ground spectrum of missions. This suite of critical capabilities is expected to provide the foundation required to enable a variety of possible destinations and missions consistent with the Evolvable Mars Campaign.. The International Space Station will be used to the greatest extent possible for exploration capability and technology development. Beyond this, NASA is evaluating a number of options for Proving Ground missions. An "Asteroid Redirect Mission" will demonstrate needed capabilities (e.g., Solar Electric Propulsion) and transportation systems for the crew (i.e., Space Launch System and Orion) and for cargo (i.e., Asteroid Redirect Vehicle). The Mars 2020 mission and follow-on robotic precursor missions will gather Mars surface environment information and will mature technologies. NASA is considering emplacing a small pressurized module in cis-lunar space to support crewed operations of increasing duration and to serve as a platform for critical exploration capabilities testing (e.g., radiation mitigation; extended duration deep space habitation). In addition, "opportunistic mission operations" could demonstrate capabilities not on the Mars critical path that may, nonetheless, enhance exploration operations (e.g., teleoperations, crew assisted Mars sample return). The Proving Ground may also include "pathfinder" missions to test and demonstrate specific capabilities at Mars (e.g., entry, descent, and landing). This paper describes the (1) process used to conduct an architecture-driven technology development assessment, (2) exploration mission critical and supporting capabilities, and (3) approach for addressing test and demonstration opportunities encompassing the spectrum of flight elements and destinations consistent with the Evolvable Mars Campaign.

Bobskill, Marianne R.↗

High Efficiency Quantum Well Waveguide Solar Cells and Methods for Constructing the Same

Photon absorption, and thus current generation, is hindered in conventional thin-film solar cell designs, including quantum well structures, by the limited path length of incident light passing vertically through the device. Optical scattering into lateral waveguide structures provides a physical mechanism to increase photocurrent generation through in-plane light trapping. However, the insertion of wells of high refractive index material with lower energy gap into the device structure often results in lower voltage operation, and hence lower photovoltaic power conversion efficiency. The voltage output of an InGaAs quantum well waveguide photovoltaic device can be increased by employing a III-V material structure with an extended wide band gap emitter heterojunction. Analysis of the light IV characteristics reveals that non-radiative recombination components of the underlying dark diode current have been reduced, exposing the limiting radiative recombination component and providing a pathway for realizing solar-electric conversion efficiency of 30% or more in single junction cells.

Welser, Roger E.↗

Defining Collaborative Control Interactions Using Systems Theory

Human teams collaborate by establishing roles, changing functional authorities, maintaining team cognition, coordinating, and mutually helping one another close control loops. These complex inter-actions are inspiring novel concepts to improve human-machine and multi-machine collaboration. However, these new systems face engineering gaps in modeling, analysis, design, and assurance. As such, few have been fielded in safety-critical domains like aerospace. To analyze safety, this paper introduces a system-theoretic framework to describe interactions that are—or are planned to be—used in multi-controller systems. It outlines a taxonomy of seven structural dimensions that influence controller interactions and nine dynamics observed in collaborative control that are defined using Systems Theory. An analyzed set of 101 controller interactions in aerospace systems demonstrates how to apply the framework and that designers are trying to create more sophisticated systems. This framework provides the foundation to extend system-theoretic hazard analysis techniques to systematically find collabora-tive-control causal factors.

Human machine teaming↗

Independent Technical Assessment of NASA and External Quantum Sensing Capability

The recent FY 2020 federal Research and Development Budget Priorities memo addresses the leadership need in Quantum Information Science (QIS) directing agencies to “prioritize QIS research and development (R&D), which will build the technical and scientific base necessary to explore the next generation of QIS theory, devices, and applications.” Quantum Sensing (QS) is an integral part of QIS. NASA is a key part of the directive to forward American space exploration and commercialization by providing “capabilities that have broad potential applications in space and on Earth.” QS provides an arena for NASA to demonstrate leadership in both areas of the administrative directive. QS uses quantum properties to achieve unprecedented measurement sensitivity and performance, including quantum-enhanced methodologies that outperform their classical counterparts. Typical quantum sensors exploit techniques such as atomic systems, matter waves, quantum entanglement, quantum superposition of states, quantum illumination methods, and manipulation of photons and atoms, in general. Guided by advancements in our ability to generate, manipulate, and control quantum systems, the emerging quantum sensing technologies promise unrivalled sensitivity, resolution, and precision, potentially leading to game-changing applications. Significant gains include technologies important for a range of NASA missions such as remote sensing, in situ measurements, metrology, interferometry, quantum communication, ranging, imaging, radar and lidar receivers, and gravity measurements. NASA Engineering and Safety Center has convened an independent external panel, comprising of Quantum Sensing Experts from Government, DoD, academia, and Federally funded Research and Development Center to conduct an independent technical assessment of the agency's capabilities in Quantum Sensing to understand NASA's internal needs and competencies related to Quantum Sensing and compare agency capabilities with those available externally including industry, academia, and other government agencies. The outcomes of the assessment will help the agency in establishing appropriate strategies and investments to develop and maintain the state-of-the-art sensing competence and capabilities required to meet the agency’s future needs. The External Experts Panel (EEP) is collaborating with HQ, various NASA Center and the representatives in the NASA Quantum Sensing Community of Practice (QS CoP), a part of NASA Sensors and Instrumentation Technical Fellow Technical Discipline Team, in obtaining common, current understanding of agency mission needs where QS can be an important enabler for future needs, and any programs, projects, assets, and technologists working in QS. The EEP organized a Quantum Sensing Workshop of practitioners from industry, academia, other government agencies, external experts, and interested NASA personnel to gather the assessment information. EEP also conducted information gathering on the industry at large, educational institutions, and other government agency research efforts for capture in the assessment database. At the conclusion of this assessment, EEP team will develop findings and conclusions describing NASA’s capabilities for the mission needs, NASA's relative position on new, enabling technologies, and an analysis of the gaps that may present any risks to near-term or far-term mission needs. This presentation will give details of the NASA and External Quantum Sensing Assessment outcomes, findings, observations, and its recommendation to NASA as how it can advance Quantum Sensing technologies and techniques for its science and explorations related missions.

External Quantum Sensing Capability↗

High-efficiency graded band-gap Al/x/Ga/1-x/As-GaAs solar cell

A detailed theoretical analysis of an n-on-p graded band-gap Al(x)Ga(1-x)As-GaAs solar cell yields a maximum air mass zero power conversion efficiency of 17% compared to 9% for a similar GaAs cell. The analysis includes surface and bulk minority carrier recombination, junction recombination current, spectrally varying surface reflection, and series resistance loss. The maximum efficiency is determined for a surface recombination velocity of 10,000 cm/sec and hole and electron diffusion lengths of 2.1 and 7.6 microns, respectively. The improved efficiency is primarily due to a built-in electric field, caused by the band-gap gradation, accelerating photogenerated holes toward the p-n junction. This field reduces the surface and bulk recombination of the holes, and thereby enhances their collection.

Hutchby, J. A.↗

Radiometric measurements of gap probability in conifer tree canopies

Measurements of gap probability were made for some moderate-sized, open-grown conifers of varying species. Results of the radiometric analysis show that the gap probability, which is taken as the mean of the binomial, fits well a negative exponential function of a path length. The conifer shadow, then, is an object of almost uniform darkness with some bright holes or gaps that are found near the shadow's edge and rapidly disappear toward the shadows center.

Albers, Bryan J.↗

A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Continuity Gaps in Earth Observations

Decision analysis processes outlined in systems engineering references, such as the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge [1] or the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook [2], recommend following a series of steps to support decision-making for engineering applications. These steps are consistent across the literature and typically involve defining objectives, defining relevant criteria against which candidate alternatives can be assessed, selecting an evaluation method, assessing alternatives, and making a recommendation based on this assessment. These approaches are well-suited to assess systems for which sets of common objectives and constraints can be identified. A vast body of literature describes their application to numerous engineering problems, and many methods have been developed since the middle of the 20th century to support the assessment of candidate alternatives for such systems [3, 4, 5, 6]. These approaches, however, show some limitations when decisions pertain to systems of systems. These collections of individual systems typically do not share a common set of objectives and constraints, tend to be highly complex, and the definition of assessable, high-value candidate alternatives poses a challenge due to interdependencies. The formulation, development, operation, and funding of Earth observing missions are such that gaps may occur between missions, therefore impacting the continuity of measurements. These Earth observing mission architectures constitute systems of systems for which a common set of objectives and constraints can be challenging to define. When tasked with assessing gaps that may occur for a series of spaceborne missions that address similar science parameters, the authors therefore proposed to depart from the traditional objective- and criteria-based approach and instead adopted a scenario-based approach. This approach does not require a prioritized set of common objectives; rather, it assesses the impact of possible decisions on the system-of-systems and characterizes its possible future states. It also offers the flexibility to adjust assumptions, update inputs, and refine supporting models over time, while enabling the rapid, early identification of challenges and key decision points. By simulating the impact of potential decisions on the entirety of the system-of-systems, the approach enables the synchronization of multiple decisions that typically occur at the level of the individual system. This paper provides an overview of the approach that was developed to assess continuity gaps for a series of operational and planned spaceborne Earth observing missions, a description of its application to the problem at hand, and a discussion of currently known limitations.

scenario earth observations continuity gaps↗

A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Continuity Gaps in Earth Observations

Decision analysis processes outlined in systems engineering references, such as the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge [1] or the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook [2], recommend following a series of steps to support decision-making for engineering applications. These steps are consistent across the literature and typically involve defining objectives, defining relevant criteria against which candidate alternatives can be assessed, selecting an evaluation method, assessing alternatives, and making a recommendation based on this assessment. These approaches are well-suited to assess systems for which sets of common objectives and constraints can be identified. A vast body of literature describes their application to numerous engineering problems, and many methods have been developed since the middle of the 20th century to support the assessment of candidate alternatives for such systems [3, 4, 5, 6]. These approaches, however, show some limitations when decisions pertain to systems of systems. These collections of individual systems typically do not share a common set of objectives and constraints, tend to be highly complex, and the definition of assessable, high-value candidate alternatives poses a challenge due to interdependencies. The formulation, development, operation, and funding of Earth observing missions are such that gaps may occur between missions, therefore impacting the continuity of measurements. These Earth observing mission architectures constitute systems of systems for which a common set of objectives and constraints can be challenging to define. When tasked with assessing gaps that may occur for a series of spaceborne missions that address similar science parameters, the authors therefore proposed to depart from the traditional objective- and criteria-based approach and instead adopted a scenario-based approach. This approach does not require a prioritized set of common objectives; rather, it assesses the impact of possible decisions on the system-of-systems and characterizes its possible future states. It also offers the flexibility to adjust assumptions, update inputs, and refine supporting models over time, while enabling the rapid, early identification of challenges and key decision points. By simulating the impact of potential decisions on the entirety of the system-of-systems, the approach enables the synchronization of multiple decisions that typically occur at the level of the individual system. This paper provides an overview of the approach that was developed to assess continuity gaps for a series of operational and planned spaceborne Earth observing missions, a description of its application to the problem at hand, and a discussion of currently known limitations.

scenario earth observations continuity gaps↗