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NASA NTRS1993

The solar flare myth

Many years of research have demonstrated that large, nonrecurrent geomagnetic storms, shock wave disturbances in the solar wind, and energetic particle events in interplanetary space often occur in close association with large solar flares. This result has led to a pradigm of cause and effect - that large solar flares are the fundamental cause of these events in the near-Earth space environmemt. This paradigm, which I call 'the solar flare myth,' dominates the popular perception of the relationship between solar activity and interplanetary and geomagnetic events and has provided much of the pragmatic rationale for the study of the solar flare phenomenon. Yet there is good evidence that this paradigm is wrong and that flares do not generally play a central role in producing major transient disturbances in the near-Earth space environment. In this paper I outline a different paradigm of cause and effect that removes solar flares from their central position in the chain of events leading from the Sun to near-Earth space. Instead, this central role is given to events known as coronal mass ejections.

Gosling, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Major Solar Eruptive Event in July 2012: Defining Extreme Space Weather Scenarios

A key goal for space weather studies is to define severe and extreme conditions that might plausibly afflict human technology. On 23 July 2012, solar active region 1520 (approx. 141 deg W heliographic longitude) gave rise to a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) with an initial speed that was determined to be 2500+/-500 km/s. The eruption was directed away from Earth toward 125 deg W longitude. STEREO-A sensors detected the CME arrival only about 19 h later and made in situ measurements of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. In this paper, we address the question of what would have happened if this powerful interplanetary event had been Earthward directed. Using a well-proven geomagnetic storm forecast model, we find that the 23-24 July event would certainly have produced a geomagnetic storm that was comparable to the largest events of the twentieth century (Dst approx. - 500 nT). Using plausible assumptions about seasonal and time-of-day orientation of the Earth's magnetic dipole, the most extreme modeled value of storm-time disturbance would have been Dst= - 1182 nT. This is considerably larger than estimates for the famous Carrington storm of 1859. This finding has far reaching implications because it demonstrates that extreme space weather conditions such as those during March of 1989 or September of 1859 can happen even during a modest solar activity cycle such as the one presently underway. We argue that this extreme event should immediately be employed by the space weather community to model severe space weather effects on technological systems such as the electric power grid.

solar longitude↗
NASA NTRS1976

Solar cycle review /General aspects/

Several topics are discussed in this review of the solar cycle. The basic solar-interplanetary magnetic structure is considered, and the high speed solar wind streams and their sunspot cycle variation are described, with attention to the sunspot cycle variation, the high speed solar wind streams and geomagnetic disturbances, and the causes of changes of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field. Solar storms, solar flares, and magnetic bubbles are examined with attention directed to the solar cycle variation of transient polar activities and the interplanetary disturbances associated with solar storms. Some features of cosmic rays, the 11-year cycle variation and the Forbush decreases, are considered. Attention is also directed to the terrestrial atmosphere and to the outer planets and their relation to the solar cycle.

Akasofu, S.-I.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Analysis of EIT/LASCO Observations Using Available MHD Models: Investigation of CME Initiation Propagation and Geoeffectiveness

The Sun's activity drives the variability of geospace (i.e., near-earth environment). Observations show that the ejection of plasma from the sun, called coronal mass ejections (CMEs), are the major cause of geomagnetic storms. This global-scale solar dynamical feature of coronal mass ejection was discovered almost three decades ago by the use of space-borne coronagraphs (OSO-7, Skylab/ATM and P78-1). Significant progress has been made in understanding the physical nature of the CMEs. Observations show that these global-scale CMEs have size in the order of a solar radius (approximately 6.7 x 10(exp 5) km) near the sun, and each event involves a mass of about 10(exp 15) g and an energy comparable to that of a large flare on the order of 10(exp 32) ergs. The radial propagation speeds of CMEs have a wide range from tens to thousands of kilometers per second. Thus, the transit time to near earth's environment [i.e., 1 AU (astronomical unit)] can be as fast as 40 hours to 100 hours. The typical transit time for geoeffective events is approximately 60-80 h. This paper consists of two parts: 1) A summary of the observed CMEs from Skylab to the present SOHO will be presented. Special attention will be made to SOHO/ LASCO/ EIT observations and their characteristics leading to a geoeffectiv a CME 2) The chronological development of theory and models to interpret the physical nature of this fascinating phenomenon will be reviewed. Finally, an example will be presented to illustrate the geoeffectiveness of the CMEs by using both observation and model.

Wu, S. T.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Thermosphere Global Time Response to Geomagnetic Storms Caused by Coronal Mass Ejections

We investigate, for the first time with a spatial superposed epoch analysis study, the thermosphere global time response to 159 geomagnetic storms caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in the solar wind at Earth's orbit during the period of September 2001 to September 2011. The thermosphere neutral mass density is obtained from the CHAMP (CHAllenge Mini-Satellite Payload) and GRACE (Gravity Recovery Climate Experiment) spacecraft. All density measurements are intercalibrated against densities computed by the Jacchia-Bowman 2008 empirical model under the regime of very low geomagnetic activity. We explore both the effects of the pre-CME shock impact on the thermosphere and of the storm main phase onset by taking their times of occurrence as zero epoch times (CME impact and interplanetary magnetic field Bz southward turning) for each storm. We find that the shock impact produces quick and transient responses at the two high-latitude regions with minimal propagation toward lower latitudes. In both cases, thermosphere is heated in very high latitude regions within several minutes. The Bz southward turning of the storm onset has a fast heating manifestation at the two high-latitude regions, and it takes approximately 3 h for that heating to propagate down to equatorial latitudes and to globalize in the thermosphere. This heating propagation is presumably accomplished, at least in part, with traveling atmospheric disturbances and complex meridional wind structures. Current models use longer lag times in computing thermosphere density dynamics during storms. Our results suggest that the thermosphere response time scales are shorter and should be accordingly adjusted in thermospheric empirical models.

mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS1978

Interplanetary gas. XXII - Interaction of comet Kohoutek's ion tail with the compression region of a solar-wind corotating stream

An apparently successful identification of a comet-tail feature with a solar-wind event is presented. Photographs of comet Kohoutek 1973f show a large-scale disturbance in the middle and outer regions of the ion tail early on January 20 of 1974. On the previous and succeeding days the comet had, however, a 'normal' and less active appearance. The peculiar tail structure is linked to an encounter with rapidly changing solar-wind conditions on the forward edge of the high-velocity solar-wind stream which encountered the earth late on January 24. The stream produced a geomagnetic storm of the recurrent type. The high-speed stream appears to have been associated with a large near-equatorial coronal hole which underwent central meridian passage on January 22. It is proposed that the comet was in the compression region on the stream forward edge at the time of formation of the tail disturbance. The accuracy of the time delays is actually tested by an application of the wind shock theory of ionic tail orientations.

Niedner, M. B., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Geomagnetic response to solar activity.

The relationship between solar activity and geomagnetic variations is discussed in the light of spacecraft data obtained during the last decade. The effects of centers of solar activity responsible for producing geomagnetic activity on earth are believed to be transmitted through the solar wind, and there is usually a delay of two or three days before the onset of magnetic activity. Attempts to make a one-to-one correspondence between specific solar events and specific magnetic storms, however, are usually unsuccessful, because of the complex and indirect processes linking the two phenomena. Normally, only statistical tendencies can be shown.

Mead, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Recent improvements in atmospheric environment models for Space Station applications

The capability of empirical models of the earth's thermosphere must continually be updated if they are to keep pace with their many applications in the aerospace industry. This paper briefly summarizes the progress of several such efforts in support of the Space Station Program. The efforts consists of the development of data bases, analytical studies of the data, and evaluation and intercomparison of thermosphere models. A geomagnetic storm model of Slowey does not compare as well to the MSIS-86 model as does the Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET). LDEF orbit decay data is used to evaluate the performance of the MET and MSIS-86 during a period of high solar activity; equal to or exceeding the highest levels that existed during the time of the original data sets upon which these models are based.

Anderson, B. Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS1993

Periodic variation in the geomagnetic activity - A study based on the Ap index

The monthly and daily samples of the Ap index for the interval from 1932 through 1982 were studied using the power spectrum technique. Results obtained for Bartel's period (about 27 days), the semiannual period, the dual-peak solar cycle distribution of geomagnetic storms, and certain other medium-scale periodicities are examined in detail. In addition, results on the cumulative occurrence number of storms per decade as a function of the Ap and Dst indices for the storm are presented.

De Gonzalez, Alicia L. C.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Triggering of substorms by solar wind discontinuities

The probability of triggering of polar substorms by a large-scale magnetospheric compression associated with a discontinuity in the solar wind has been examined statistically using ground magnetogram data, AE index data and satellite geomagnetic data on 125 sudden storm commencements observed during 1967-1970. The triggering probability was found to depend on the amplitude of the sudden storm commencement and on the degree of preceding AE activity. In almost all cases the triggering occurred when the B-Z component of the interplanetary magnetic field was negative or decreasing during the 30 min before the passage of the discontinuity. Transient geomagnetic responses with a time scale of Alfven wave propagation in the polar cap also depend on interplanetary magnetic field conditions.

Kokubun, S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Telescopic and Microscopic Examination of Acceleration in the June 2015 Geomagnetic Storm: Magnetospheric Multiscale and Van Allen Probes Study of Substorm Particle Injection

An active storm period in June 2015 showed that particle injection events seen sequentially by the four (MagnetosphericMultiscale) MMS spacecraft subsequently fed the enhancement of the outer radiation belt observed by Van Allen Probes mission sensors. Several episodes of significant southward interplanetary magnetic field along with a period of high solar wind speed (Vsw 500kms) on 22 June occurred following strong interplanetary shock wave impacts on the magnetosphere. Key events on 22 June 2015 show that the magnetosphere progressed through a sequence of energy-loading and stress-developing states until the entire system suddenly reconfigured at 19:32 UT. Energetic electrons, plasma, and magnetic fields measured by the four MMS spacecraft revealed clear dipolarization front characteristics. It was seen that magnetospheric substorm activity provided a seed electron population as observed by MMS particle sensors as multiple injections and related enhancements in electron flux.

Baker, D. N.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Monitoring and Modeling Astronaut Occupational Radiation Exposures in Space: Recent Advances

In 1982 astronauts were declared to be radiation workers by OSHA, and as such were subject to the rules and regulations applied to that group. NASA was already aware that space radiation was a hazard to crewmembers and had been studying and monitoring astronaut doses since 1962 at the Johnson Space Center. It was quickly realized NASA would not be able to accomplish all of its goals if the astronauts were subject to the ground based radiation worker limits, and thus received a waiver from OSHA to establish independent limits. As part of the stipulation attached to setting new limits, OSHA included a requirement to perform preflight dose projections for each crew and inform them of the associated risks. Additional requirements included measuring doses from various sources during the flight, making every effort to prevent a crewmember from exceeding the new limits, and keeping all exposures As Low As Reasonably Achievable (a.k.a. ALARA - a common health physics principle). The assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) and its initial manned operations will coincide with the 4-5 year period of high space weather activity at the next maximum in the solar cycle. For the first time in NASA's manned program, US astronauts will be in orbit continuously throughout a solar maximum period. During this period, crews are at risk of significantly increased radiation exposures due to solar particle events and trapped electron belt enhancements following geomagnetic storms. The problem of protecting crews is compounded by the difficulty of providing continuous real-time monitoring over a period of a decade in an era of tightly constrained budgets. In order to prepare for ISS radiological support needs, the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group and the NOAA Space Environment Center have undertaken a multiyear effort to improve and automate ground-based space weather monitoring systems and real-time radiation analysis tools. These improvements include a coupled, automated space weather monitoring and alarm system--SPE exposure analysis system, an advanced space weather data distribution and display system, and a high-fidelity space weather simulation system. In addition, significant new real-time space weather data sets, which will enhance the forecasting and now-casting of near-Earth space environment conditions, are being made available through unique NASA-NOAA-USAF collaborations. These new data sets include coronal mass ejection monitoring by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and in-situ plasma and particle monitoring at the L1 libration point by the Solar Wind Monitor (SWIM) and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Advanced real-time radiation monitoring data from charged particle telescopes and tissue equivalent proportional counters will also be available to assist crew and flight controllers in monitoring the external and intravehicular radiation environment.

Weyland, Mark↗
NASA NTRS1987

Effect of possible passage through Halley's magnetic tail on geomagnetic activity

It is found that there occurred a geomagnetic storm on May 18/19, 1910 that cannot be dismissed as a recurrent storm. The period of storminess is close to the period of time at which the magnetic and plasma tail of Halley should have passed over the earth. The signature is worldwide and of the form and magnitude expected if the solar wind were shielded from the earth by the comet. Comparison with computer simulations applicable closer to the comet suggests that this interpretation is feasible. If this interpretation is correct, the 'lobes' of the Halley tail have deeper lows at 24 x 10 to the 6th km than in the present model at 7 x 10 to the 6th km downstream and are at least twice as wide.

Russell, C. T.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Long-term Trends in Interplanetary Magnetic Field Strength and Solar Wind Structure during the 20th Century

Lockwood et al have recently reported an approximately 40% increase in the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at Earth between 1964 and 1996. We argue that this increase does not constitute a secular trend but is largely the consequence of lower than average fields during solar cycle 20 (1964-1976) in comparison with surrounding cycles. For times after 1976 the average IMF strength has actually decreased slightly. Examination of the cosmic ray intensity, an indirect measure of the IMF strength, over the last five solar cycles (19-23) also indicates that cycle averages of the IMF strength have been relatively constant since approximately 1954. We also consider the origin of the well-documented increase in the geomagnetic alphaalpha index that occurred primarily during the first half of the twentieth century. We surmise that the coronal mass ejection (CME) rate for recent solar cycles was approximately twice as high as that for solar cycles 100 years ago. However, this change in the CME rate and the accompanying increase in 27-day recurrent storm activity reported by others are unable to account completely for the increase in alphaalpha. Rather, the CMEs and recurrent high-speed streams at the beginning of the twentieth century must have been embedded in a background of slow solar wind that was less geoeffective (having, for example, lower IMF strength and/or flow speed) than its modern counterpart.

Richardson, I. G.↗
NASA NTRS1983

An ISEE 3 high time resolution study of interplanetary parameter correlations with magnetospheric activity

The coupling between the solar wind and the geomagnetic disturbances was examined using data from the ISEE-3 spacecraft at an earth-sun libration point and ground-based data. One minute data were used to avoid aliasing in determining the internal magnetospheric response to solar wind conditions. Attention was given to the cross-correlations between the geomagnetic index (AE), the total energy dissipation rate (UT), and the solar wind parameters, as well as the spatial and temporal scales on which the magnetosphere reacts to the solar wind conditions. It was considered necessary to characterize the physics of the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling in order to define the requirements for a spacecraft like the ISEE-3 that could be used as a real time monitoring system for predicting storms and substorms. The correlations among all but one parameter were lower during disturbance intervals; UT was highly correlated with all parameters during the disturbed times. An intrinsic 25-40 min delay was detected between interplanetary activity and magnetospheric response in quite times, diminishing to no more than 15 min during disturbed times.

Baker, D. N.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Solar Cycle Variation and Multipoint Studies of ICME Properties

The goal of the Living With a Star program is to understand the Sun-Earth connection sufficiently well that we can solve problems critical to life and society. This can most effectively be done in the short term using observations from our past and on-going programs. Not only can this approach solve some of the pressing issues but also it can provide ideas for the deployment of future spacecraft in the LWS program. The proposed effort uses data from NEAR, SOHO, Wind, ACE and Pioneer Venus in quadrature, multipoint, and solar cycle studies to study the interplanetary coronal mass ejection and its role in the magnetic flux cycle of the Sun. ICMEs are most important to the LWS objectives because the solar wind conditions associated with these structures are the most geoeffective of any solar wind phenomena. Their ability to produce strong geomagnetic disturbances arises first because of their high speed. This high speed overtakes the ambient solar wind producing a bow shock wave similar to the terrestrial bow shock. In the new techniques we develop as part of this effort we exploit this feature of ICMEs. This shocked plasma has a greater velocity, higher density and stronger magnetic field than the ambient solar wind, conditions that can enhance geomagnetic activity. The driving ICME is a large magnetic structure expanding outward in the solar wind [Gosling, 19961. The ICMEs magnetic field is generally much higher than that in the ambient solar wind and the velocity is high. The twisted nature of the magnetic field in an ICME almost ensures that sometime during the ICME conditions favorable for geomagnetic storm initiation will occur.

Russell, C. T.↗
NASA NTRS1976

The physical properties of coronal holes

Coronal hole data obtained by Skylab during the period May 1973 to February 1974 are reviewed for the region from the photosphere out through the low corona. Coronal holes have a significantly lower density and temperature than the typical background corona, possess an open divergent magnetic field structure, and are the source of the high-speed solar wind stream which give rise to recurrent geomagnetic storms. The photospheric, chromospheric, and coronal signatures of coronal holes are described, and the evolution of coronal holes is examined, with attention to the lifetimes, the differential rotation, and the areas covered by the holes. The association of coronal holes to large-scale magnetic fields and to disk activity is considered.

Bohlin, J. D.↗