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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Historic climate, cosmogenic 10Be, denudation-rate, and geospatial datasets from the Pikes Peak region, Colorado, USA

This data package contains geographic information system (GIS) layers and tabular datasets associated with the study of elevation-dependent denudation rates on Pikes Peak in the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains, Colorado, USA. The package includes GIS layers used to produce the study-area map, including sample locations, sample watershed boundaries, the Pikes Peak batholith, Pleistocene glacier extent, weather station locations, and elevation and hillshade rasters, together with comma-separated value (CSV) tables and matching CSV data dictionaries. These mapped layers provide the geographic framework for interpreting denudation patterns across the Pikes Peak region and for relating sample locations to watershed geometry, bedrock setting, glacial history, and nearby climate stations. The first group of tables reports climate and geospatial context for the study area. These files include station-based temperature and precipitation data used to characterize elevational gradients in mean annual climate and monthly climate seasonality, sample locations, denudation-rate and topographic metrics, fixed frost-cracking model parameters, frost-cracking intensity and precipitation-frequency metrics, and stream-power inversion results. Together, these data provide the basis for evaluating how denudation varies with elevation, climate, and landscape form across sampled catchments on Pikes Peak. The second group of tables reports cosmogenic nuclide and erosion-model results used in the denudation analysis. Included files contain accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) measurements for in situ-produced cosmogenic beryllium-10 (10Be), including sample identifiers, measured 10Be:9Be ratios, analytical uncertainties, carrier mass, quartz mass, blank corrections, blank-group statistics, and calculated 10Be concentrations and uncertainties. Additional tables summarize stream-power-law inversion results for sampled catchments, including optimized model parameters, predicted erosion rates, residual metrics, channel-pixel counts, and convergence status, as well as regression equations and summary statistics used to evaluate relationships among elevation, climate, frost cracking, precipitation forcing, and denudation rate. The package contains GIS files, comma-separated value files (.csv), Microsoft Excel files (.xlsx), CSV data dictionaries, a file-level metadata table, and a readme text file.

10Be cosmogenic nuclides↗
DOE OSTI2022

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-GLE GLEES

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-GLE GLEES. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-GLE GLEES produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The Glacier Lakes Ecosystem Experiments Site (GLEES) site is located on land owned by the U.S. government and managed by US Forest Service as part of the Medicine Bow National Forest. Many of the trees in the immediate vicinity of the site are older than 400 years, inter-dispersed among trees much younger in age. This widespread age distribution is most likely a derivation of one of two scenarios: 1) A widespread stand replacement about 400 years ago followed by a slow replacement; 2) Intermittent random disturbances over the past 400 years (Bradford et al. 2008). A decade long spruce beetle outbreak that peaked in 2008 resulted in the mortality of 85% of the forested basal area. There are a few private land holdings in the area, with scattered uncorked mining claims. Following the establishment of the National Forest, mining was banned and grazing was closed in the early 1990's in the upper portion of the GLEES site. Recreation in the winter, when snow can remain in patches into the summer months, snow mobiling and cross country skiing are popular. During the limited summer, hiking, camping and fishing are common activities. The site is accessible by vehicle only during the summer on Forest Road FDR 317, and in the winter, the tower is only reachable via snowmobile.

Frank, John↗
DOE OSTI2023

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-xDC NEON Dakota Coteau Field School (DCFS)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xDC NEON Dakota Coteau Field School (DCFS). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xDC NEON Dakota Coteau Field School (DCFS) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The Dakota Coteau Field School (DCFS) and Prairie Lake (PRLA) field sites are co-located in an agricultural area used primarily for cattle grazing, just a few miles east of the Woodworth and Prairie Pothole sites at the Chase Lake National Wildlife Refuge. DCFS covers 7.8 km2 (3 square miles) of grazing land in Stutsman County, ND, between the tiny communities of Pingree and Woodworth. The population here is sparse, but the land has been transformed by agricultural activities over the last 150 years. The field site has been used only for grazing, but other land in the surrounding area has been converted to corn and soybean production. DCFS is located in an area known as the "Prairie Pothole Region," a band of tall and mixed prairie that stretches across parts of North and South Dakota, Minnesota and the Canadian provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Historically, this area supported tall to mid-height prairie grasses, including blue gamma and green needlegrass. The land here is pocked by thousands of depressions left behind by glaciers 10,000 years ago, resulting in a series of small lakes and wetland areas known as prairie potholes. These potholes receive most of their water from spring snowmelt and are a primary source of groundwater recharge for the region. NEON data will help researchers monitor the effects of climate change on the Northern Plains ecosystem. Over the last 30 years, the hydrological cycle in the plains has changed dramatically, trending wetter overall and diverging from the historical ten-year cycles. Temperatures are also rising, leading to changes in plant phenology cycles and species distribution that could negatively impact migratory bird populations and other animal species.

Network), NEON (National Ecological Observatory↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seismic Tomography 2024

Seismic tomography is the most abundant source of information about the internal structure of the Earth at scales ranging from a few meters to thousands of kilometers. It constrains the properties of active volcanoes, earthquake fault zones, deep reservoirs and storage sites, glaciers and ice sheets, or the entire globe. It contributes to outstanding societal problems related to natural hazards, resource exploration, underground storage, and many more. The recent advances in seismic tomography are being translated to nondestructive testing, medical ultrasound, and helioseismology. Nearly 50 yr after its first successful applications, this article offers a snapshot of modern seismic tomography. Focused on major challenges and particularly promising research directions, it is intended to guide both Earth science professionals and early-career scientists. The individual contributions by the coauthors provide diverse perspectives on topics that may at first seem disconnected but are closely tied together by a few coherent threads: multiparameter inversion for properties related to dynamic processes, data quality, and geographic coverage, uncertainty quantification that is useful for geologic interpretation, new formulations of tomographic inverse problems that address concrete geologic questions more directly, and the presentation and quantitative comparison of tomographic models. Finally, it remains to be seen which of these problems will be considered solved, solved to some extent, or practically unsolvable over the next decade.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Southwest Wind Power R&D Test Site Development at the National Wind Technology Center (CRADA CRD-12-00472 Final Report)

Southwest Windpower, Inc. (SWWP) has been designing and distributing small wind turbines for more than 22 years and is the recognized global leader in the design, manufacturing and distribution of small wind systems (400-3000 watts). The company has been a pioneer in the development of wind technology and has built and shipped more than 170,000 wind turbines to over 120 countries worldwide. Headquartered in Flagstaff AZ, SWWP has sales representatives in over 88 countries. Applications for SWWP systems include residential homes, commercial properties, micro grids, remote cabins, telecom transmitters, offshore platforms, water pumping and sailboats. In addition, U.S. Department of Defense uses SWWP’s products in Forward Operating Bases (FOB’s), USGS uses them for remote monitoring of glacier movements and the CIA uses them to provide power seismic monitoring. Today, SWWP plans development of new technologies to address distributed energy market needs and become even more aggressive in international markets. This strategy includes extensive Research, Development, Demonstration & Deployment (RDD&D) activities to improve existing production line into more simple, reliable, and cost-effective wind turbine systems. Important part of such activities is the field testing of the new systems, which should provide: (i) validation of the reliable operation of hardware and software; (ii) validation of numerical models of the system and its components; (iii) field comparison of various control and optimization strategies; (iv) customized reliability testing; (v) customized monitoring and analysis testing; and (vi) IEC certification testing (vii) filed demonstration of system performance and reliability. Such field testing facility should encompass multiple towers and appropriate data acquisition systems. SWWP is exploring to move part of the engineering department to Colorado, and execute its RDD&D strategies in this new location. Partnership with NREL will provide great insights into SWWP’s RDD&D processes and more efficient commercialization by utilizing NWTC as the field testing site, and working close with NREL personnel. NWTC is ideally suited to strain the design. NREL is very experienced with customized and IEC testing. During this project, Southwest Windpower aims to improve the value proposition of distributed renewable energy, and make it a competitive choice in the energy markets. As of today, more then 170,000 small wind turbines, manufactured in the U.S., are installed in more then 180 countries. With the improved value proposition, Southwest Windpower wants to create and address new market needs, substantially increase its sales domestically and internationally, which should have positive impact on the creation of American jobs, competitiveness of U.S. economy, export or U.S. products, and the use of renewable energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Ice Nucleating Particles and Their Sources in the Central Arctic during MOSAiC

The Arctic is warming faster than any other region on Earth, causing glaciers to melt, frozen ground to thaw, and the Arctic Ocean's ice to shrink. These consequential changes induce feedback loops that exacerbate warming and affect weather and climate worldwide. Microscopic airborne particles called "aerosols" and clouds in the sky are crucial for regulating heat and light reaching the Arctic surface. However, the magnitude of their effects is not adequately quantified, especially in the central Arctic, where they impact temperatures directly over the sea ice. Unique aerosols called "ice nucleating particles" (INPs), which play a significant role in cloud ice production, remain understudied. Understanding how ice forms in clouds is critical in the Arctic, as it affects cloud lifespan, interactions with heat and light, and precipitation. In this project, we conducted the first-ever observations of INPs in the middle of the Arctic over a whole year, covering the entire period when sea ice grows and melts. Furthermore, these are the first observations of INPs in different size ranges throughout the year, anywhere in the world. We use DNA sequencing to evaluate the presence of various types of microorganisms, while INP measurements on seawater, sea ice, snow, and meltwater samples help assess potential local Arctic sources of INPs. The results from this work are currently being used to improve the accuracy of Arctic cloud formation in various models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reduced viscosity steadily weakens oceanic currents

The viscosity of both air and water is temperature dependent. A rising temperature leads to an increased viscosity for air but a decreased viscosity for water. As climate becomes warmer, this increased air viscosity can partly inhibit the reduction of wind stress over the ocean, and the reduced water viscosity causes less downward momentum and heat transport. As these opposing effects of warming on air and water viscosity are not included in the state-of-the-art climate models, the understanding of their potential impacts on the response of the climate system to the anthropogenic warming is lacking. Here, via analyzing the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation oceanic reanalysis dataset, we show that the ocean heat content increases at a rate of ~1.3 × 10 22 J/yr over 35 years, which leads to a continuous reduction of oceanic viscosity. As a result, the ocean vertical shear enhances with a shoaling of the mixed layer depth and a reduced vertical linkage in the ocean. Our calculations show a reduction of the oceanic kinetic energy at a rate of ~2.4 × 10 16 J/yr. Potentially, this could generate far-reaching impacts on the energy storage of the climate system and, hence, could pace the global warming. Thus, it is important to include the temperature-dependent viscosity in our climate models. Freshwater discharged from polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers also contributes to the reduction in oceanic viscosity but, at present, to a lesser extent than that in oceanic warming. Reduced oceanic viscosity, therefore, is an important, but hitherto overlooked, response to a warming climate and contributes to many recent weather extremes including heavier rainfall rates in hurricanes, slackening of the polar vortex, and oceanic heat waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Permafrost Active Layer Microbes From Ny Ålesund, Svalbard (79°N) Show Autotrophic and Heterotrophic Metabolisms With Diverse Carbon-Degrading Enzymes

The active layer of permafrost in Ny Ålesund, Svalbard (79°N) around the Bayelva River in the Leirhaugen glacier moraine is measured as a small net carbon sink at the brink of becoming a carbon source. In many permafrost-dominating ecosystems, microbes in the active layers have been shown to drive organic matter degradation and greenhouse gas production, creating positive feedback on climate change. However, the microbial metabolisms linking the environmental geochemical processes and the populations that perform them have not been fully characterized. In this paper, we present geochemical, enzymatic, and isotopic data paired with 10 Pseudomonas sp. cultures and metagenomic libraries of two active layer soil cores (BPF1 and BPF2) from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard, (79°N). Relative to BPF1, BPF2 had statistically higher C/N ratios (15 ± 1 for BPF1 vs. 29 ± 10 for BPF2; n = 30, p < 10 –5 ), statistically lower organic carbon (2% ± 0.6% for BPF1 vs. 1.6% ± 0.4% for BPF2, p < 0.02), statistically lower nitrogen (0.1% ± 0.03% for BPF1 vs. 0.07% ± 0.02% for BPF2, p < 10 –6 ). The d 13 C values for inorganic carbon did not correlate with those of organic carbon in BPF2, suggesting lower heterotrophic respiration. An increase in the δ 13 C of inorganic carbon with depth either reflects an autotrophic signal or mixing between a heterotrophic source at the surface and a lithotrophic source at depth. Potential enzyme activity of xylosidase and N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase increases twofold at 15°C, relative to 25°C, indicating cold adaptation in the cultures and bulk soil. Potential enzyme activity of leucine aminopeptidase across soils and cultures was two orders of magnitude higher than other tested enzymes, implying that organisms use leucine as a nitrogen and carbon source in this nutrient-limited environment. Besides demonstrating large variability in carbon compositions of permafrost active layer soils only ∼84 m apart, results suggest that the Svalbard active layer microbes are often limited by organic carbon or nitrogen availability and have adaptations to the current environment, and metabolic flexibility to adapt to the warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Grand Challenges of Hydrologic Modeling for Food-Energy-Water Nexus Security in High Mountain Asia

Climate-influenced changes in hydrology affect water-food-energy security that may impact up to two billion people downstream of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Changes in water supply affect energy, industry, transportation, and ecosystems (agriculture, fisheries) and as a result, also affect the region's social, environmental, and economic fabrics. Sustaining the highly interconnected food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) will be a fundamental and increasing challenge under a changing climate regime. High variability in topography and distribution of glaciated and snow-covered areas in the HMA region, and scarcity of high resolution (in-situ) data make it difficult to model and project climate change impacts on individual watersheds. We lack basic understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in climate, surface impurities in snow and ice such as black carbon and dust that alter surface albedo, and glacier mass balance and dynamics. These knowledge gaps create challenges in predicting where and when the impact of changes in river flow will be the most significant economically and ecologically. In response to these challenges, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT) in 2016 to conduct research to address knowledge gaps. This paper summarizes some of the advances HiMAT made over the past 5 years, highlights the scientific challenges in improving our understanding of the hydrology of the HMA region, and introduces an integrated assessment framework to assess the impacts of climate changes on the FEWN for the HMA region. The framework, developed under a NASA HMA project, links climate models, hydrology, hydropower, fish biology, and economic analysis. The framework could be applied to develop scientific understanding of spatio-temporal variability in water availability and the resultant downstream impacts on the FEWN to support water resource management under a changing climate regime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change and Its Impacts on Agriculture

Climate change and climate variability drive rapid glacier melt and snowpack loss, extreme precipitation and temperature events, and alteration of water availability in the Himalayas. There is increasing observational evidence of climate change impacts on water resource availability and agricultural productivity in the central Himalayan region. Here, we assess the farmers’ perception of climate change and its impacts on agriculture in western Nepal. We interviewed 554 households and conducted eight focus group discussions to collect farmers’ perceptions of temperature and rainfall characteristics, water availability, onset and duration of different seasons, and the impacts of such changes on their lives and livelihoods. Our results indicate that the farmers’ perceptions of rising annual and summer temperatures are consistent with observations. Perception, however, contradicts observed trends in winter temperature, as well as annual, monsoon, and winter precipitation. In addition, farmers are increasingly facing incidences of extreme events, including rainfall, floods, landslides, and droughts. These hazards often impact agricultural production, reducing household income and exacerbating the economic impacts on subsistence farmers. Integrated assessment of farmers’ perceptions and hydrometeorological observations is crucial to improving climate change impact assessment and informing the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ameletus Mayflies (Ephemeroptera: Ameletidae) of the Eastern Nearctic

Fourteen Ameletus species are recognized in the eastern Nearctic (south of the Artic zone), including six described as new. Keys to adult males and full-grown larvae are provided. Taxonomic decisions were based on morphologic and genetic evidence. Their justification is discussed in depth and four species groups are proposed. The vast majority of Ameletus encountered in the eastern Nearctic are members of one of three triploid, clonal parthenogenetic species, at least two of which are of hybrid origin. Bisexual progenitors of the parthenogens were inferred using a combination of mitochondrial and nuclear genetic markers. The parthenogens likely arose during the Late Pleistocene when glacial advances brought previously allopatric species/populations into contact, and as glaciers retreated the parthenogens rapidly expanded their range while the sexual lineages remained in presumed glacial refugia. Although parthenogenesis is relatively common in Ephemeroptera, these Ameletus represent the first known cases of polyploidy and hybrid origin.

Funk, David H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Water balance model (WBM) v.1.0.0: a scalable gridded global hydrologic model with water-tracking functionality

Abstract. This paper describes the University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model, WBM, a process-based gridded global hydrologic model that simulates the land surface components of the global water cycle and includes water extraction for use in agriculture and domestic sectors. The WBM was first published in 1989; here, we describe the first fully open-source WBM version (v.1.0.0). Earlier descriptions of WBM methods provide the foundation for the most recent model version that is detailed here. We present an overview of the model functionality, utility, and evaluation of simulated global river discharge and irrigation water use. This new version adds a novel suite of water source tracking modules that enable the analysis of flow-path histories on water supply. A key feature of WBM v.1.0.0 is the ability to identify the partitioning of sources for each stock or flux within the model. Three different categories of tracking are available: (1) primary inputs of water to the surface of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle (liquid precipitation, snowmelt, glacier melt, and unsustainable groundwater); (2) water that has been extracted for human use and returned to the terrestrial hydrologic system; and (3) runoff originating from user-defined spatial land units. Such component tracking provides a more fully transparent model in that users can identify the underlying mechanisms generating the simulated behavior. We find that WBM v.1.0.0 simulates global river discharge and irrigation water withdrawals well, even with default parameter settings, and for the first time, we are able to show how the simulation arrives at these fluxes by using the novel tracking functions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

SUHMO: an adaptive mesh refinement SUbglacial Hydrology MOdel v1.0

Abstract. Water flowing under ice sheets and glaciers can have a strong influence on ice dynamics, particularly through pressure changes, suggesting that a comprehensive ice sheet model should include the effect of basal hydrology. Modeling subglacial hydrology remains a challenge, however, mainly due to the range of spatial and temporal scales involved – from subglacial channels to vast subglacial lakes. Additionally, networks of subglacial drainage channels dynamically evolve over time. To address some of these challenges, we have developed an adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) model based on the Chombo software framework. We extend the model proposed by Sommers et al. (2018) with a small but significant change to accommodate the transition from unresolved to resolved flow features. We handle the strong nonlinearities present in the equations by resorting to an efficient nonlinear full approximation scheme multigrid (FAS-MG) algorithm. We outline the details of the algorithm and present convergence analysis results demonstrating its good performance. Additionally, we present results validating our approach, using test cases from the Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP) (de Fleurian et al., 2018). We finish by presenting a more complex, 100 km-by-100 km synthetic test case with peaks and valleys that we use to investigate the effective pressure distribution as the number of AMR levels increases. These preliminary results suggest that a minimum spatial resolution is needed to properly capture channel features, but additional work is required to precisely quantify this and its impact on accurately modeling the coupled ice sheet–hydrology system. The efficiency of our approach, relying on localized refinement, is also demonstrated. Future work will include coupling the SUbglacial Hydrology MOdel (SUHMO) with the BISICLES AMR ice sheet model (Cornford et al., 2013), both built on the same numerical framework.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computationally efficient subglacial drainage modelling using Gaussian process emulators: GlaDS-GP v1.0

Subglacial drainage models represent water flow at the ice–bed interface through coupled distributed and channelized systems to determine water pressure, discharge, and drainage system geometry. While they are used to understand processes such as the relationship between surface melt and ice flow, the number of uncertain model parameters and the computational cost of running models makes it difficult to adequately explore the high-dimensional parameter space and evaluate uncertainty in model predictions. Here, we develop Gaussian process (GP) emulators that make fast predictions with associated uncertainty of subglacial drainage model outputs. Using a truncated principal component (PC) basis representation, we construct a GP emulator for diurnally averaged subglacial water pressure. We also explore emulation of scalar variables describing drainage efficiency and configuration. We train the emulators using ensembles of up to 512 simulations varying eight parameters of the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model on a synthetic domain intended to represent an ice-sheet margin. The emulators make predictions ∼ 1000 times faster than GlaDS simulations, with errors <3 % for the water pressure field and ∼ 5 %–9 % for drainage efficiency and configuration. We apply the emulators to explore the eight-dimensional parameter space by computing variance-based parameter sensitivity indices, finding that three parameters (ice flow coefficient, bed bump aspect ratio, and the subglacial cavity system conductivity) explain 90 % of the variance in modelled water pressure in response to parameter changes. The GP emulator approach described here is well suited to integrating observational data with models to make calibrated, credible predictions of subglacial drainage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

CMIP7 data request: land and land ice priorities and opportunities

The Land and Land Ice Theme in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) represents the current understanding of physical processes in land surface ecosystems, hydrology, cryosphere, and their physical interactions with other Earth system components. Simulations from Earth system models (ESMs) could provide crucial information for assessing planetary safety, such as critical tipping elements, and be used to inform climate risks for improving climate impact assessments and policy decisions. This paper presents a collaborative effort to identify scientific opportunities in the Land and Land Ice Theme of the CMIP7 Data Request. The proposed opportunities build upon advances in ESMs, including new freshwater system and land ice processes being included in CMIP7, as well as the scientific community's demand for high-frequency and sub-grid-scale land surface outputs. In total, 25 variable groups that contain 716 variables have been identified to be potentially available to the broad scientific audience for performing analysis in land–atmosphere coupling, hydrological processes and freshwater systems, glacier and ice sheet mass balance and their influence on the sea levels, land use, and plant phenology. Key reflections from this data request effort include advocacy for closer engagement between the user community and modeling groups, reduction in the technical barriers to tracking existing parameters and defining new variables, and more streamlined variable management. These will be essential to enhance the usability and reliability of CMIP7 outputs for climate and Earth system research and applications to a broad audience that relies on the CMIP7 endeavor.

Li, Yue [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (Uni↗
DOE OSTI2022

The role of föhn winds in eastern Antarctic Peninsula rapid ice shelf collapse

Ice shelf collapse reduces buttressing and enables grounded glaciers to contribute more rapidly to sea-level rise in a warming climate. The abrupt collapses of the Larsen A (1995) and B (2002) ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) occurred, at least for Larsen B, when long-period ocean swells damaged the calving front and the ice shelf was inundated with melt lakes that led to large-scale hydrofracture cascades. During collapse, field and satellite observations indicate föhn winds were present on both ice shelves. Here we use a regional climate model and machine learning analyses to evaluate the contributory roles of föhn winds and associated melt events prior to and during the collapses for ice shelves on the AP. Föhn winds caused about 25 % ± 3 % of the total annual melt in just 9 d on Larsen A prior to and during collapse and were present during the Larsen B collapse, which helped form extensive melt lakes. At the same time, the off-coast wind direction created by föhn winds helped melt and physically push sea ice away from the ice shelf calving fronts that allowed long-period ocean swells to reach and damage the front, which has been theorized to have ultimately triggered collapse. Collapsed ice shelves experienced enhanced surface melt driven by föhn winds over a large spatial extent and near the calving front, whereas SCAR inlet and the Larsen C ice shelves are affected less by föhn-wind-induced melt and do not experience large-scale melt ponds. These results suggest SCAR inlet and the Larsen C ice shelves may be less likely to experience rapid collapse due to föhn-driven melt so long as surface temperatures and föhn occurrence remain within historical bounds.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improved representation of laminar and turbulent sheet flow in subglacial drainage models

Subglacial hydrology models struggle to reproduce seasonal drainage patterns that are consistent with observed subglacial water pressures and surface velocities. We modify the standard sheet-flow parameterization within a coupled sheet–channel subglacial drainage model to smoothly transition between laminar and turbulent flow based on the locally computed Reynolds number in a physically consistent way (the ‘transition’ model). We compare the transition model to standard laminar and turbulent models to assess the role of the sheet-flow parameterization in reconciling observed and modelled water pressures under idealized and realistic forcing. Relative to the turbulent model, the laminar and transition models improve seasonal simulations by increasing winter water pressure and producing a more prominent late-summer water pressure minimum. In contrast to the laminar model, the transition model remains consistent with its own internal assumptions across all flow regimes. Based on the internal consistency of the transition model and its improved performance relative to the standard turbulent model, we recommend its use for transient simulations of subglacial drainage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of a subglacial drainage model

Subglacial drainage models, often motivated by the relationship between hydrology and ice flow, sensitively depend on numerous unconstrained parameters. We explore using borehole water-pressure time series to calibrate the uncertain parameters of a popular subglacial drainage model, taking a Bayesian perspective to quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates and in the calibrated model predictions. To reduce the computation time associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we construct a fast Gaussian process emulator to stand in for the subglacial drainage model. We first carry out a calibration experiment using synthetic observations consisting of model simulations with hidden parameter values as a demonstration of the method. Using real borehole water pressures measured in western Greenland, we find meaningful constraints on four of the eight model parameters and a factor-of-three reduction in uncertainty of the calibrated model predictions. These experiments illustrate Gaussian process-based Bayesian inference as a useful tool for calibration and uncertainty quantification of complex glaciological models using field data. However, significant differences between the calibrated model and the borehole data suggest that structural limitations of the model, rather than poorly constrained parameters or computational cost, remain the most important constraint on subglacial drainage modelling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗