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At least 109 records · Page 6

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC yr−1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC yr−1). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC/yr for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC/yr). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

land use and land cover change↗

Multiple Mechanisms for Copper Uptake by Methylosinus trichosporium OB3b in the Presence of Heterologous Methanobactin

Methanotrophs play a critical role in the global carbon cycle, as well as in future strategies for mitigating climate change through their consumption of methane, a trace atmospheric gas much more potent than carbon dioxide in global warming potential. Copper uptake is critical for methanotrophic activity, and here, we show different approaches for copper uptake.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Validation of Ocean Color Satellite Data Products in Under Sampled Marine Areas

The planktonic marine cyanobacterium, Trichodesmium sp., is broadly distributed throughout the oligotrophic marine tropical and sub-tropical oceans. Trichodesmium, which typically occurs in macroscopic bundles or colonies, is noteworthy for its ability to form large surface aggregations and to fix dinitrogen gas. The latter is important because primary production supported by N2 fixation can result in a net export of carbon from the surface waters to deep ocean and may therefore play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. However, information on the distribution and density of Trichodesmium from shipboard measurements through the oligotrophic oceans is very sparse. Such estimates are required to quantitatively estimate total global rates of N2 fixation. As a result current global rate estimates are highly uncertain. Thus in order to understand the broader biogeochemical importance of Trichodesmium and N2 fixation in the oceans, we need better methods to estimate the global temporal and spatial variability of this organism. One approach that holds great promise is satellite remote sensing. Satellite ocean color sensors are ideal instruments for estimating global phytoplankton biomass, especially that due to episodic blooms, because they provide relatively high frequency synoptic information over large areas. Trichodesmium has a combination of specific ultrastructural and biochemical features that lend themselves to identification of this organism by remote sensing. Specifically, these features are high backscatter due to the presence of gas vesicles, and absorption and fluorescence of phycoerythrin. The resulting optical signature is relatively unique and should be detectable with satellite ocean color sensors such as the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS).

Subramaniam, Ajit↗

Land-Use Harmonization Datasets for Global Carbon Budget 2019 and Beyond

Land-use change has been the dominant source of anthropogenic carbon emissions for most of the historical period, and is currently one of the largest and most uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Advancing the scientific understanding on this topic requires that the best data be used as input to the best models in well-organized scientific assessments. The Land-Use Harmonization dataset (LUH2), previously developed and used as input for CMIP6 simulations, has been updated annually to provide required input to land models in the annual Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessment. These annual LUH2-GCB updates and extensions have incorporated annual FAO wood harvest data updates for dataset years after 2015 and HYDE gridded agriculture area data updates (based on annual FAO agricultural area data updates) for dataset years after 2012, along with extrapolations to the current year due to a lag of one or more years in the FAO data releases. The resulting updated LUH2-GCB datasets have provided global, annual gridded land-use and land-use change data relating toagricultural expansion, deforestation, wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, regrowth and afforestation, and crop rotationsand pasture managementand are used by both book-keeping models and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) for the GCB. For GCB 2019,a more significant update to LUH2 was produced (LUH2-GCB2019) to correct cropland and grazing area errors in the underlying input datasets for the globally important region of Brazil, as far back as 1950. From 1951-2012 the LUH2-GCB2019 dataset begins to diverge from the LUH2 v2hdataset, with peak differences in Brazil in the year 2000 for grazing land (difference of 100,000 km2) and in the year 2009 for cropland (difference of 77,000 km2), along with significant sub-national reorganization of agricultural land-use patterns within Brazil. These LUH2-GCB2019 corrections for Brazil provide the base for future LUH2-GCB updates including the recent LUH2-GCB2020 dataset, and present a starting point for operationalizing the creation of these datasets toreduce time-lags due to the multiple input dataset and model latencies.

L Chini↗

A Novel Framework for Quantifying past Methane Recycling by Sphagnum-Methanotroph Symbiosis Using Carbon and Hydrogen Isotope Ratios of Leaf Wax Biomarkers

The concentration of atmospheric methane is strongly linked to variations in Earth's climate. Currently, we can directly reconstruct the total atmospheric concentration of methane, but not individual terms of the methane cycle. Northern wetlands, dominated by Sphagnum, are an important contributor of atmospheric methane, and we seek to understand the methane cycle in these systems. We present a novel method for quantifying the proportion of carbon Sphagnum assimilates from its methanotrophic symbionts using stable isotope ratios of leaf-wax biomarkers. Carbon isotope ratios of Sphagnum compounds are determined by two competing influences, water content and the isotope ratio of source carbon. We disentangled these effects using a combined hydrogen and carbon isotope approach. We constrained Sphagnum water content using the contrast between the hydrogen isotope ratios of Sphagnum and vascular plant biomarkers. We then used Sphagnum water content to calculate the carbon isotope ratio of Sphagnum's carbon pool. Using a mass balance equation, we calculated the proportion of recycled methane contributed to the Sphagnum carbon pool, 'PRM.' We quantified PRM in peat monoliths from three microhabitats in the Mer Bleue peatland complex. Modern studies have shown that water table depth and vegetation have strong influences on the peatland methane cycle on instrumental time scales. With this new approach, delta C-13 of Sphagnum compounds are now a useful tool for investigating the relationships among hydrology, vegetation, and methanotrophy in Sphagnum peatlands over the time scales of entire peatland sediment records, vital to our understanding of the global carbon cycle through the Late Glacial and Holocene.

air pollution↗

Impact of Changes to the Atmospheric Soluble Iron Deposition Flux on Ocean Biogeochemical Cycles in the Anthropocene

Abstract Iron can be a growth‐limiting nutrient for phytoplankton, modifying rates of net primary production, nitrogen fixation, and carbon export ‐ highlighting the importance of new iron inputs from the atmosphere. The bioavailable iron fraction depends on the emission source and the dissolution during transport. The impacts of anthropogenic combustion and land use change on emissions from industrial, domestic, shipping, desert, and wildfire sources suggest that Northern Hemisphere soluble iron deposition has likely been enhanced between 2% and 68% over the Industrial Era. If policy and climate follow the intermediate Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 trajectory, then results suggest that Southern Ocean (>30°S) soluble iron deposition would be enhanced between 63% and 95% by 2100. Marine net primary productivity and carbon export within the open ocean are most sensitive to changes in soluble iron deposition in the Southern Hemisphere; this is predominantly driven by fire rather than dust iron sources. Changes in iron deposition cause large perturbations to the marine nitrogen cycle, up to 70% increase in denitrification and 15% increase in nitrogen fixation, but only modestly impacts the carbon cycle and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (1–3 ppm). Regionally, primary productivity increases due to increased iron deposition are often compensated by offsetting decreases downstream corresponding to equivalent changes in the rate of phytoplankton macronutrient uptake, particularly in the equatorial Pacific. These effects are weaker in the Southern Ocean, suggesting that changes in iron deposition in this region dominates the global carbon cycle and climate response.

Hamilton, Douglas S.↗

First Image Products from EcoSAR - Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica

Designed especially for forest ecosystem studies, EcoSAR employs state-of-the-art digital beamforming technology to generate wide-swath, high-resolution imagery. EcoSARs dual antenna single-pass imaging capability eliminates temporal decorrelation from polarimetric and interferometric analysis, increasing the signal strength and simplifying models used to invert forest structure parameters. Antennae are physically separated by 25 meters providing single pass interferometry. In this mode the radar is most sensitive to topography. With 32 active transmit and receive channels, EcoSARs digital beamforming is an order of magnitude more versatile than the digital beamforming employed on the upcoming NISAR mission. EcoSARs long wavelength (P-band, 435 MHz, 69 cm) measurements can be used to simulate data products for ESAs future BIOMASS mission, allowing scientists to develop algorithms before the launch of the satellite. EcoSAR can also be deployed to collect much needed data where BIOMASS satellite wont be allowed to collect data (North America, Europe and Arctic), filling in the gaps to keep a watchful eye on the global carbon cycle. EcoSAR can play a vital role in monitoring, reporting and verification schemes of internationals programs such as UN-REDD (United Nations Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) benefiting global society. EcoSAR was developed and flown with support from NASA Earth Sciences Technology Offices Instrument Incubator Program.

InSAR↗

Land-use harmonization datasets for annual global carbon budgets

Abstract. Land-use change has been the dominant source of anthropogenic carbon emissions for most of the historical period and is currently one of the largest and most uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Advancing the scientific understanding on this topic requires that the best data be used as input to state-of-the-art models in well-organized scientific assessments. The Land-Use Harmonization 2 dataset (LUH2), previously developed and used as input for simulations of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), has been updated annually to provide required input to land models in the annual Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessments. Here we discuss the methodology for producing these annual LUH2-GCB updates and extensions which incorporate annual wood harvest data updates from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations for dataset years after 2015 and the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) gridded cropland and grazing area data updates (based on annual FAO cropland and grazing area data updates) for dataset years after 2012, along with extrapolations to the current year due to a lag of 1 or more years in the FAO data releases. The resulting updated LUH2-GCB datasets have provided global, annual gridded land-use and land-use-change data relating to agricultural expansion, deforestation, wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, regrowth and afforestation, crop rotations, and pasture management and are used by both bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) for the GCB. For GCB 2019, a more significant update to LUH2 was produced, LUH2-GCB2019 (https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1851, Chini et al., 2020b), to take advantage of new data inputs that corrected cropland and grazing areas in the globally important region of Brazil as far back as 1950. From 1951 to 2012 the LUH2-GCB2019 dataset begins to diverge from the version of LUH2 used for the World Climate Research Programme's CMIP6, with peak differences in Brazil in the year 2000 for grazing land (difference of 100 000 km2) and in the year 2009 for cropland (difference of 77 000 km2), along with significant sub-national reorganization of agricultural land-use patterns within Brazil. The LUH2-GCB2019 dataset provides the base for future LUH2-GCB updates, including the recent LUH2-GCB2020 dataset, and presents a starting point for operationalizing the creation of these datasets to reduce time lags due to the multiple input dataset and model latencies.

Chini, Louise (ORCID:0000000290703505)↗

Whole-soil warming leads to substantial soil carbon emission in an alpine grassland

The sensitivity of soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition in seasonally frozen soils, such as alpine ecosystems, to climate warming is a major uncertainty in global carbon cycling. Here we measure soil CO 2 emission during four years (2018–2021) from the whole-soil warming experiment (4 °C for the top 1 m) in an alpine grassland ecosystem. We find that whole-soil warming stimulates total and SOC-derived CO 2 efflux by 26% and 37%, respectively, but has a minor effect on root-derived CO 2 efflux. Moreover, experimental warming only promotes total soil CO 2 efflux by 7-8% on average in the meta-analysis across all grasslands or alpine grasslands globally (none of these experiments were whole-soil warming). We show that whole-soil warming has a much stronger effect on soil carbon emission in the alpine grassland ecosystem than what was reported in previous warming experiments, most of which only heat surface soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Monitoring of Terrestrial Chlorophyll Fluorescence from Moderate-Spectral-Resolution Near-Infrared Satellite Measurements: Methodology, Simulations, and Application to GOME-2

Globally mapped terrestrial chlorophyll fluorescence retrievals are of high interest because they can provide information on the functional status of vegetation including light-use efficiency and global primary productivity that can be used for global carbon cycle modeling and agricultural applications. Previous satellite retrievals of fluorescence have relied solely upon the filling-in of solar Fraunhofer lines that are not significantly affected by atmospheric absorption. Although these measurements provide near-global coverage on a monthly basis, they suffer from relatively low precision and sparse spatial sampling. Here, we describe a new methodology to retrieve global far-red fluorescence information; we use hyperspectral data with a simplified radiative transfer model to disentangle the spectral signatures of three basic components: atmospheric absorption, surface reflectance, and fluorescence radiance. An empirically based principal component analysis approach is employed, primarily using cloudy data over ocean, to model and solve for the atmospheric absorption. Through detailed simulations, we demonstrate the feasibility of the approach and show that moderate-spectral-resolution measurements with a relatively high signal-to-noise ratio can be used to retrieve far-red fluorescence information with good precision and accuracy. The method is then applied to data from the Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2). The GOME-2 fluorescence retrievals display similar spatial structure as compared with those from a simpler technique applied to the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). GOME-2 enables global mapping of far-red fluorescence with higher precision over smaller spatial and temporal scales than is possible with GOSAT. Near-global coverage is provided within a few days. We are able to show clearly for the first time physically plausible variations in fluorescence over the course of a single month at a spatial resolution of 0.5 0.5. We also show some significant differences between fluorescence and coincident normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI) retrievals.

Fluorescence↗

Global Monitoring of Terrestrial Chlorophyll Fluorescence from Moderate-spectral-resolution Near-infrared Satellite Measurements: Methodology, Simulations, and Application to GOME-2

Globally mapped terrestrial chlorophyll fluorescence retrievals are of high interest because they can provide information on the functional status of vegetation including light-use efficiency and global primary productivity that can be used for global carbon cycle modeling and agricultural applications. Previous satellite retrievals of fluorescence have relied solely upon the filling-in of solar Fraunhofer lines that are not significantly affected by atmospheric absorption. Although these measurements provide near-global coverage on a monthly basis, they suffer from relatively low precision and sparse spatial sampling. Here, we describe a new methodology to retrieve global far-red fluorescence information; we use hyperspectral data with a simplified radiative transfer model to disentangle the spectral signatures of three basic components: atmospheric absorption, surface reflectance, and fluorescence radiance. An empirically based principal component analysis approach is employed, primarily using cloudy data over ocean, to model and solve for the atmospheric absorption. Through detailed simulations, we demonstrate the feasibility of the approach and show that moderate-spectral-resolution measurements with a relatively high signal-to-noise ratio can be used to retrieve far-red fluorescence information with good precision and accuracy. The method is then applied to data from the Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2). The GOME-2 fluorescence retrievals display similar spatial structure as compared with those from a simpler technique applied to the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). GOME-2 enables global mapping of far-red fluorescence with higher precision over smaller spatial and temporal scales than is possible with GOSAT. Near-global coverage is provided within a few days. We are able to show clearly for the first time physically plausible variations in fluorescence over the course of a single month at a spatial resolution of 0.5 deg × 0.5 deg. We also show some significant differences between fluorescence and coincident normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI) retrievals.

remote sensing↗

A blast of gas in the latest Paleocene: simulating first-order effects of massive dissociation of oceanic methane hydrate

Carbonate and organic matter deposited during the latest Paleocene thermal maximum is characterized by a remarkable -2.5% excursion in delta 13C that occurred over approximately 10(4) yr and returned to near initial values in an exponential pattern over approximately 2 x 10(5) yr. It has been hypothesized that this excursion signifies transfer of 1.4 to 2.8 x 10(18) g of CH4 from oceanic hydrates to the combined ocean-atmosphere inorganic carbon reservoir. A scenario with 1.12 x 10(18) g of CH4 is numerically simulated here within the framework of the present-day global carbon cycle to test the plausibility of the hypothesis. We find that (1) the delta 13C of the deep ocean, shallow ocean, and atmosphere decreases by -2.3% over 10(4) yr and returns to initial values in an exponential pattern over approximately 2 x 10(5) yr; (2) the depth of the lysocline shoals by up to 400 m over 10(4) yr, and this rise is most pronounced in one ocean region; and (3) global surface temperature increases by approximately 2 degrees C over 10(4) yr and returns to initial values over approximately 2 x 10(6) yr. The first effect is quantitatively consistent with the geologic record; the latter two effects are qualitatively consistent with observations. Thus, significant CH4 release from oceanic hydrates is a plausible explanation for observed carbon cycle perturbations during the thermal maximum. This conclusion is of broad interest because the flux of CH4 invoked during the maximum is of similar magnitude to that released to the atmosphere from present-day anthropogenic CH4 sources.

Non-NASA Center↗

Biomineralization: Integrating mechanism and evolutionary history

Calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) biomineralizing organisms have played major roles in the history of life and the global carbon cycle during the past 541 Ma. Both marine diversification and mass extinctions reflect physiological responses to environmental changes through time. An integrated understanding of carbonate biomineralization is necessary to illuminate this evolutionary record and to understand how modern organisms will respond to 21st century global change. Biomineralization evolved independently but convergently across phyla, suggesting a unity of mechanism that transcends biological differences. In this review, we combine CaCO 3 skeleton formation mechanisms with constraints from evolutionary history, omics, and a meta-analysis of isotopic data to develop a plausible model for CaCO 3 biomineralization applicable to all phyla. The model provides a framework for understanding the environmental sensitivity of marine calcifiers, past mass extinctions, and resilience in 21st century acidifying oceans. Thus, it frames questions about the past, present, and future of CaCO 3 biomineralizing organisms.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Spatial Predictions and Associated Uncertainty of Annual Soil Respiration at the Global Scale

Abstract Soil respiration (Rs), the soil‐to‐atmosphere CO 2 flux produced by microbes and plant roots, is a critical but uncertain component of the global carbon cycle. Our current understanding of the variability and dynamics is limited by the coarse spatial resolution of existing estimates. We predicted annual Rs and associated uncertainty across the world at 1‐km resolution using a quantile regression forest algorithm trained with observations from the global Soil Respiration Database spanning from 1961 to 2011. This model yielded a global annual Rs estimate of 87.9 Pg C/year with an associated global uncertainty of 18.6 (mean absolute error) and 40.4 (root mean square error) Pg C/year. The estimated annual heterotrophic respiration (Rh), derived from empirical relationships with Rs, was 49.7 Pg C/year over the same period. Predicted Rs rates and associated uncertainty varied widely across vegetation types, with the greatest predicted rates of Rs in evergreen broadleaf forests (accounting for 20.9% of global Rs). The greatest prediction uncertainties were in northern latitudes and arid to semiarid ecosystems, suggesting that these areas should be targeted in future measurement campaigns. This study provides predictions of Rs (and associated prediction uncertainty) at unprecedentedly high spatial resolution across the globe that could help constrain local‐to‐global process‐based models. Furthermore, it provides insights into the large variability of Rs and Rh across vegetation classes and identifies regions and vegetation types with poor model performance that should be prioritized for future data collection.

Warner, D. L.↗

Modeling exports of dissolved organic carbon from landscapes: a review of challenges and opportunities

Inland waters receive large quantities of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from soils and act as conduits for the lateral transport of this terrestrially derived carbon, ultimately storing, mineralizing, or delivering it to oceans. The lateral DOC flux plays a crucial role in the global carbon cycle, and numerous models have been developed to estimate the DOC export from different landscapes. We reviewed 34 published models and compared their characteristics to identify challenges in model applications and opportunities for future model development. We classified these models into three types: indicator-driven, hydrology-forced, and process-based DOC export simulation models. They differ mainly in their environmental inputs, simulation approaches for soil DOC production, leaching from soils to inland waters, and transit through inland waters. It is essential to consider landscape characteristics, climate conditions, available data, and research questions when selecting the most appropriate model. Given the substantial assumptions associated with these models, sufficient measurements are required to benchmark estimates. Accurate accounting of terrestrially derived DOC export to oceans requires incorporating the DOC produced in aquatic ecosystems and deposited with rainwater; otherwise, global export estimates may be overestimated by 40.7%. Additionally, improving the representation of mineralization and burial processes in inland waters allows for more accurate accounting of carbon sequestration through land ecosystems. When all the inland water processes are ignored or assuming DOC leaching is equivalent to DOC export, the loss of soil carbon through this lateral flux could be underestimated by 43.9%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

climate↗

Protist Predation Influences the Temperature Response of Bacterial Communities

Temperature strongly influences microbial community structure and function, in turn contributing to global carbon cycling that can fuel further warming. Recent studies suggest that biotic interactions among microbes may play an important role in determining the temperature responses of these communities. However, how predation regulates these microbiomes under future climates is still poorly understood. Here, we assess whether predation by a key global bacterial consumer—protists—influences the temperature response of the community structure and function of a freshwater microbiome. To do so, we exposed microbial communities to two cosmopolitan protist species—Tetrahymena thermophila and Colpidium sp.—at two different temperatures, in a month-long microcosm experiment. While microbial biomass and respiration increased with temperature due to community shifts, these responses changed over time and in the presence of protists. Protists influenced microbial biomass and respiration rate through direct and indirect effects on bacterial community structure, and predator presence actually reduced microbial respiration at elevated temperature. Indicator species analyses showed that these predator effects were mostly determined by phylum-specific bacterial responses to protist density and cell size. Our study supports previous findings that temperature is an important driver of microbial communities but also demonstrates that the presence of a large predator can mediate these responses to warming.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗