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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6

Outcomes of PAX sapiens-Supported Global Wildlife Data Sharing Conferences for Enhanced One Health Security (GWDSC)

Across two consecutive Global Wildlife Data Sharing Conferences supported by PAX sapiens—Year 1 (May 2024) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Year 2 (2025) in Ciudad Real, Spain—the initiative converted wildlife data sharing from aspiration into operational reality, producing measurable impacts in platform development, data mobilization, standards harmonization, and international partnership formation. The conferences addressed a critical gap in global health security: while 75% of emerging infectious diseases affect both humans and animals and over 60% originate in wildlife, wildlife health surveillance has historically lagged behind human and agricultural sectors due to fragmented databases, inconsistent terminology, uneven capacity, and limited cross-border coordination. By convening practitioners, government agencies, international organizations, academic institutions, and NGOs, the GWDSC catalyzed trust-based relationships and practical workflows that enable earlier detection, better risk assessment, and more effective prevention of threats at the wildlife–domestic animal–human–environment interface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Risks of Synchronized Low Yields Are Underestimated in Climate and Crop Model Projections

Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments.

Atmospheric dynamics↗

A City and National Metric measuring Isolation from the Global Market for Food Security Assessment

The World Bank has invested in infrastructure in developing countries for decades. This investment aims to reduce the isolation of markets, reducing both seasonality and variability in food availability and food prices. Here we combine city market price data, global distance to port, and country infrastructure data to create a new Isolation Index for countries and cities around the world. Our index quantifies the isolation of a city from the global market. We demonstrate that an index built at the country level can be applied at a sub-national level to quantify city isolation. In doing so, we offer policy makers with an alternative metric to assess food insecurity. We compare our isolation index with other indices and economic data found in the literature.We show that our Index measures economic isolation regardless of economic stability using correlation and analysis

Brown, Molly E.↗

The SDRD Program at the NNSS

Publicly viewable and releasable version of the briefing on DHS- and global security-relevant SDRD projects that will be given during the Feb 27 DHS visit.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Heat Stress to Jeopardize Crop Production in the US Corn Belt Based on Downscaled CMIP5 Projections

CONTEXT Global food security faces increasing challenges from the changing climate. Changes of agricultural output from some of the most productive regions such as the US Corn Belt can largely affect the world's food market. Developing predictive understanding of the agricultural risk of climate change and potential mitigation strategies is critical for the global food security. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study is to assess the responses of maize and soybean yield to projected climate changes in the Corn Belt, identify the shifting environment stressors on crop yield, and tackle potential climate adaptation strategies. METHODS We drive a process-based model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, with high-resolution statistically downscaled and bias-corrected historical and future climates from ten CMIP5 models in the MACA-2 database. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The multi-model ensemble mean suggests a 12% decrease of maize yield by mid-century and 40% by late century, with a high degree of model consensus in the direction of changes; for individual models, the projected decrease of maize yield by late century ranges from <5% to over 80%, with the worst crop outcome corresponding to the most sensitive climate models. Soybean yield is projected to increase by midcentury with a high degree of model consensus, but such consensus is lost by late century as some projections shift to significant decreases. Crop yield in the Corn Belt is currently limited by water stress, but is projected to be increasingly limited by heat stress as well after the midcentury. The mounting heat stress will drive the most productive zone for maize to shift from central to northern part of the Corn Belt, but the projected increase in the northern states cannot fully compensate for the decrease in the south, causing the total production to decrease if agricultural practice stays the same. Earlier planting can alleviate only a small fraction of the heat-induced crop loss in a warmer climate. Climate change will (at least partially) offset the yield boost caused by agricultural technology and intensification. SIGNIFICANCE This study advances our predictive understanding of crop yield responses to climate change, and suggests that a multitude of strategies will be needed to address the climate change challenges for the U.S. agriculture.

Crop yield↗

System Studies for Global Nuclear Assurance and Security (GNAS): 3S Risk Analysis for Portable Nuclear Reactors (Volume II) -- Conclusions and Implications

Growing interest in compact, easily transportable sources of baseload electricity has manifested in the proposal and early deployment of portable nuclear reactors (PNRs). PNRs are sought because they are scalable, efficient, and cost-effective for meeting energy demands in unique, remote, or contested areas. For example, Russia's KLT-40S Akademik Lomonosov is a floating nuclear power plant (FNPP) that successfully reached the Arctic coastal city of Pevek. It began providing power to the local grid in December 2019. While providing such key advantages as having a highly flexible power generation mechanism, FNPPs appear to directly challenge international norms and conventions for nuclear safety, safeguards, and security. FNPPs are neither a purely fixed nuclear fuel cycle activity nor a purely transportation-based nuclear fuel cycle activity. In response, Sandia's Mitigating International Nuclear Enogy Risks (MINER) research perspective frames this discussion in terms of risk complexity and the interdependencies between safety, safeguards, and security in FNPPs, and PNRs more generally. This systems study is a technically rigorous analysis of the safety, safeguards, and security risks of FNPP technologies. This research's aims are three-fold. The first aim is to provide analytical evidence to support safety, safeguards, and security claims related to PNRs and FNPPs (Study Report Volume I). Second, this study aims to introduce a systems- theoretic approach for exploring interdependencies between the technical evaluations (Study Report Volume II). The third aim is to show Sandia's ability for prompt, rigorous, and technical analysis to support emerging complex MINER mission objectives.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Building a better framework for evaluating human well-being impacts in global change analysis: The example of energy security

Human well-being can be greatly impacted by the global environmental and socio-economic change captured in Integrated Models of Global Change (IMGCs). Though most IMGCs address some aspects of well-being, their underlying modeling approach and ‘philosophy’ differ widely, and some key elements – like energy security – are omitted. In this report, we describe a project in which we set out to a create a framework through which the well-being dimensions of the household are connected to key drivers of socio-economic and environmental change – and how the needed metrics, data and modeling methods can be brought to bear. We focus on the well-being dimensions of energy, and lay out the necessary elements to capturing household energy security – using household energy burden as the relevant metric. We begin by showing the conceptual linkage of energy burden to environmental drivers like temperature change, using a simple and straightforward conceptual framework. We then go further to use the example of GCAM-USA to show how some key analytical features of the model can provide insight into how energy security across different groups can change along alternative pathways to sustainability. We compare our preliminary assessment of household energy burden to existing data and suggest further steps to improve and refine this analysis in future research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impacts of Climate Change on Global Food Trade Networks

Countries' reliance on global food trade networks implies that regionally different climate change impacts on crop yields will be transmitted across borders. This redistribution constitutes a significant challenge for climate adaptation planning and may affect how countries engage in cooperative action. This paper investigates the long-term (2070–2099) potential impacts of climate change on global food trade networks of three key crops: wheat, rice and maize. We propose a simple network model to project how climate change impacts on crop yields may be translated into changes in trade. Combining trade and climate impact data, our analysis proceeds in three steps. First, we use network community detection to analyse how the concentration of global production in present-day trade communities may become disrupted with climate change impacts. Second, we study how countries may change their network position following climate change impacts. Third, we study the total climate-induced change in production plus import within trade communities. Results indicate that the stability of food trade network structures compared to today differs between crops, and that countries' maize trade is least stable under climate change impacts. Results also project that threats to global food security may depend on production change in a few major global producers, and whether trade communities can balance production and import loss in some vulnerable countries. Overall, our model contributes a baseline analysis of cross-border climate impacts on food trade networks.

climate change↗

Ameliorating Global Challenges: Globalization, Geopolitics, Basic & Applied Research, and Research Security

We are confronted with a myriad of global challenges, from extreme weather events, occurring at higher frequencies than at any point in history, to pollution, food insecurity, clean water shortages, and fundamentally limited natural resources and materials. The largest number of people inhabit our planet today and enjoy the highest standard of living - though not equally distributed across the world - compared to any prior moment in history. To sustain this quality of life, we are largely reliant on fossil fuel sources, which are responsible for more greenhouse gas emissions by weight each day than the collective weight of all humans that inhabit the planet. Ameliorating these global challenges will require elements of solutions that include advances in basic and applied research, innovative global engineering, materials discovery, new technologies, manufacturing at scale, resilient and adaptable infrastructure, carbon-free energy sources and storage technologies, and new supply chain networks and markets. Success will require constructive collaborative efforts between researchers in countries located in every continent of this planet. For any of these goals to be realized in a timely fashion, geopolitical leaders must become better educated about this existential challenge and incentivized to act.

applied research↗

Nuclear Security Governance in India: Institutions, Instruments, and Culture (2019)

There is an emerging consciousness in India of the importance of nuclear security and safety. Motivated by a combination of rapid growth in its civil nuclear sector, heightened scrutiny of recent nuclear accidents around the world, and the deteriorating regional security environment, India has pushed to adopt measures to strengthen and enhance its nuclear security and safety governance structures. India recognizes that the various recent global nuclear security initiatives are in its own best interest and has been an enthusiastic participant in the Nuclear Security Summit process. Today, India demonstrates a greater willingness to showcase its nuclear security arrangements before the public and has undertaken many institutional, legal, and operational reforms to maintain international regime compliance. This study takes a comprehensive look at India's approach to nuclear security and critically examines the physical security measures the country has put in place. Particular focus is placed on the evolution and strengths, as well as weaknesses, of the country's nuclear security institutions, instruments, practices, and culture. Given that the strengthening of India's nuclear security governance is an ongoing endeavor, the paper also puts forward a number of policy recommendations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Sustaining Nuclear Security Education Through INSEN

The International Nuclear Security Education Network (INSEN) was established in 2010 with a mission to enhance global nuclear security through nuclear security-focused educational initiatives. INSEN is a partnership through which the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), academic and research institutions, and other stakeholders cooperate to promote effective and sustainable nuclear security education. INSEN currently comprises 206 members (institutions) from 72 member states and 14 observers. This paper provides an overview of its role in developing and promoting nuclear security education

Metwally, Walid↗

Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Climate impacts↗

STEM Professional Development Program for Nuclear Security Science and Technology Consortium

This oral presentation captures the technical and developmental aspect of the program in support of UNLV. The goal of this project is to develop a steady pipeline of STEM educated professionals in area of national and international nuclear security. The goal is to train university students at NNSS laboratories in studies motivated by global nuclear security topics ranging from nuclear emergency response and management to physics experiments for stockpile stewardship program.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Transboundary Water: Improving Methodologies and Developing Integrated Tools to Support Water Security

River basins for which transboundary coordination and governance is a factor are of concern to US national security, yet there is often a lack of sufficient data-driven information available at the needed time horizons to inform transboundary water decision-making for the intelligence, defense, and foreign policy communities. To address this need, a two-day workshop entitled Transboundary Water: Improving Methodologies and Developing Integrated Tools to Support Global Water Security was held in August 2017 in Maryland. The committee that organized and convened the workshop (the Organizing Committee) included representatives from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the US Army Corps of Engineers Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), and the US Air Force. The primary goal of the workshop was to advance knowledge on the current US Government and partners' technical information needs and gaps to support national security interests in relation to transboundary water. The workshop also aimed to identify avenues for greater communication and collaboration among the scientific, intelligence, defense, and foreign policy communities. The discussion around transboundary water was considered in the context of the greater global water challenges facing US national security.

Hakimdavar, Raha↗

Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war

Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong pre-war fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing – similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1-2 year) catch by at most ~30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ~70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective pre-war management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ~43 ± 35% of today’s global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously-known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management.

food from the ocean↗

Methane flux measurements in rice by static flux chamber and eddy covariance

Abstract Understanding methane (CH 4 ) fluxes from rice ( Oryza sativa L.) at the field scale is paramount to reducing environmental impacts while ensuring global food security. Greenhouse gas (GHG) measurements at the plot scale using static flux chambers (SFC) have long informed the understanding of flux dynamics and have largely been the basis of global flux estimates. However, in many parts of the world, the landscapes where agricultural fluxes are generated come from larger fields. Eddy covariance (EC) can measure trace gases on larger fields, but there are few studies available quantifying CH 4 emissions under typical practices at a field scale. Furthermore, few of these studies are from the U.S. Midsouth, the largest producer of U.S. rice. This study compares and quantifies field‐scale SFC and EC flux measurements on a large commercial system in northeastern Arkansas during the 2015 and 2016 growing seasons, following typical producer practices. Daily measured SFC CH 4 fluxes did not differ from EC‐daily CH 4 fluxes ( p = .108). Total season CH 4 emissions, calculated as the sum of daily fluxes ranged from 50 to 156 kg CH 4 ha −1 season −1 , with SFC reporting greater emissions than EC. Although SFC and EC‐daily flux measurements were similar early ( p = .382) and late ( p = .543) in the season, they differed mid‐season ( p < .001) with SFC consistently reporting greater fluxes than EC. The findings of this study help unify season long plot‐scale and field‐scale flux measurements and signify an advancement of our understanding of GHG fluxes from rice systems.

Reba, Michele L.↗