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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-objective optimization of CEBAF heat load management and trip rates using AI/ML

The goal of this project is to investigate the use of RL to simultaneously optimize the cryogenic heat load and trip rate of the CEBAF linacs and make it generic to solve multi-objective problems that will enable its application at other Department of Energy (DOE) facilities with similar challenges. The existing approach optimizes the gradient distribution to minimize the trip rate and does not take into account the total heat load. A secondary objective of the project is the develop a framework to correct cavity quality curves (Q-curves) or RF-heat to Gradient relation curves for individual cavities. These curves are currently obtained using historical measurements and may have changed their behavior due to various events. Correction in these curves will allow us to accurately approximate the total RF heat generated by the linacs which is critical for the optimization.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Real space iterative reconstruction for vector tomography (RESIRE-V)

Tomography has had an important impact on the physical, biological, and medical sciences. To date, most tomographic applications have been focused on 3D scalar reconstructions. However, in some crucial applications, vector tomography is required to reconstruct 3D vector fields such as the electric and magnetic fields. Over the years, several vector tomography methods have been developed. Here, we present the mathematical foundation and algorithmic implementation of REal Space Iterative REconstruction for Vector tomography, termed RESIRE-V. RESIRE-V uses multiple tilt series of projections and iterates between the projections and a 3D reconstruction. Each iteration consists of a forward step using the Radon transform and a backward step using its transpose, then updates the object via gradient descent. Incorporating with a 3D support constraint, the algorithm iteratively minimizes an error metric, defined as the difference between the measured and calculated projections. The algorithm can also be used to refine the tilt angles and further improve the 3D reconstruction. To validate RESIRE-V, we first apply it to a simulated data set of the 3D magnetization vector field, consisting of two orthogonal tilt series, each with a missing wedge. Our quantitative analysis shows that the three components of the reconstructed magnetization vector field agree well with the ground-truth counterparts. We then use RESIRE-V to reconstruct the 3D magnetization vector field of a ferromagnetic meta-lattice consisting of three tilt series. Our 3D vector reconstruction reveals the existence of topological magnetic defects with positive and negative charges. We expect that RESIRE-V can be incorporated into different imaging modalities as a general vector tomography method. To make the algorithm accessible to a broad user community, we have made our RESIRE-V MATLAB source codes and the data freely available at https://github.com/minhpham0309/RESIRE-V.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Magnetic Field Measurements of First Pre-series Full -Length 4.2 m Quadrupole MQXFA03 Using PCB Rotating Coils for the Hi Hi-Lumi LHC Project

The U.S. Hi-Lumi LHC Accelerator Upgrade Project (AUP) and CERN have joined efforts to develop high field quad-rupoles for the Hi-Lumi LHC upgrade. The US national laborato-ries in the AUP project will deliver 10 magnets and each cryostat has two 4.2 m high gradient quadrupoles in it. These magnets are made of Nb3Sn conductors, with large aperture (150 mm) and in-tegrated gradient of 556.9 T. This paper reports on magnetic measurements performed during the vertical test at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) in 2019-2020. A warm measurement Z-Scan (+/- 15 A) with 42 Z-positions before cool-down was per-formed at BNL. The results were directly compared to field data measured at LBNL during magnet assembly. Measured harmonics and magnetic center offsets (ΔX and ΔY) have provided timely and informative diagnostics on the magnet structure’s shape at both warm and cold temperatures. A new centering fixture was de-signed and added to better center the warm bore tube which con-tains the rotating coil probe. After the quench training to 16.47 kA was achieved, a complete set of cold measurements (Z-Scan at 16.47 kA and I-Scan from 960 A to 16.47 kA and back to 960 A) was made. Periodic axial variation of allowed and nonallowed harmonics was observed which is related to the coil radial and/or mid-plane variations along the magnet axis. Overall, the average harmonics in the straight section are within the required field boundaries.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fluidized Bed Gasification For Conversion of Biomass and Waste Materials to Renewable Hydrogen

This project was undertaken in order to study the potential for hydrogen production, at low cost, from mixtures of biomass and municipal solid waste (MSW). This approach allows for the production of hydrogen with a very low fossil carbon burden, while taking advantage of tipping fees (associated with MSW) to improved process economics. The team sourced three primary feedstocks (wood, MSW, and waste plastics) and characterized them comprehensively using established techniques with a long track record in the field of gasification. All three primary feedstocks were highly reactive and lost most of their mass during initial devolatilization. The production of tars, including heavy tars, was quite high, and was most problematic in the case of the MSW and Waste Plastics feedstocks. Little practical difference was identified between the MSW and Waste Plastics materials, and the addition of bed-forming materials (dolomite and brown alumina) to the feedstocks was found to reduce production of tars during devolatilization under thermogravimetric analysis and/or Fischer Assay conditions. A series of four tests in a lab-scale bubbling-fluidized-bed gasifier, at 50 psig of pressure and about 825 C, confirmed these findings. Pellet feedstocks, broken into fragments, were used for these tests, and pellets comprised of 50% MSW and 50% biomass were found to be the best option in terms of fossil carbon burden, economic potential, and gasification characteristics. Tests were then undertaken in a pilot-scale gasifier facility based on the GTI U-Gas fluidized-bed gasification technology. The feedstock handling train of the 20 TPD U-Gas pilot-scale gasifier located in Des Plaines, IL, was operated under simulated gasification conditions, and the 50/50 pellets were found to be very robust and unproblematic. An improved design for the forward end of the feedstock injection screw of the gasifier was developed and installed. The design approach was based on improved passive cooling of the front-most shroud at the end of the screw, since this approach was found in comprehensive modeling studies to be more than sufficient to accomplish the project objectives associated with this phase of the work, while also avoiding thermal gradients that could have caused heat-stress-induced damage to the refractory around the feedstock inlet if an active cooling approach had been applied. Careful technoeconomic analysis (TEA) of two possible 1000 TPD facilities was carried out. The TEA of conversion of MSW with corn stover in one case, and MSW with woody feedstock in the other case, showed that both had the potential to provide hydrogen at about $1/kg (minimum selling price, 2018 dollar basis). Of the two TEA cases, the one that was based on the conversion of wood in the southeastern USA was found to have slightly better economic potential. The other TEA case was based on a real location in Nebraska and called for corn stover feedstock conversion along with MSW. An underserved communities outreach program plan was developed in cooperation with personnel from the Nebraska Public Power District.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multipacting Processing in Cryomodules For LCLS-II And LCLS-II-HE

Multipacting (MP) is a phenomenon which can affect stability in particle accelerators and limit performance in superconducting radio frequency cavities. In the TESLA shaped, 1.3 GHz, 9-cell cavities used in the LCLS-II (L2) and LCLS-II-HE (HE) projects, the MP-band (~17-24 MV/m) lies within the required accelerating gradients. For HE, the operating gradient of 20.8 MV/m lies well within the MP-band and cryomodule testing has confirmed that this is an issue. As such, MP processing for the HE cryomodule test program will be discussed. Early results on MP processing in cryomodules installed in the L2 linac will also be presented, demonstrating that the methods used in cryomodule acceptance testing are also successful at conditioning MP in the accelerator and that this processing is preserved in the mid-term.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Earth Energy Storage: Terawatt-year, Grid-scale Energy Storage Using Planet Earth as a Thermal Battery (GeoTES): Phase I Project (Final Report)

Grid-scale energy storage has been identified by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Storage Grand Challenge as a necessary technology to support the continued build-out of intermittent renewable energy resources required to attain a carbon-free energy future. To meet this goal, the 2018 Department of Energy Research and Innovation Act mandated the creation of a comprehensive program to accelerate the development and commercialization of next-generation energy storage technologies. One of numerous energy storage technology options is the storage of excess energy as heated geothermal brine in suitable geologic formations. This concept, known as reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), geologic thermal energy storage (GeoTES), aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES), etc., relies on the storage of thermal energy in geologic formations for recovery and use in large-scale direct use geothermal (e.g., district heating, industrial processes, etc.) and electrical power generation applications. This thermal energy is derived from excess or waste heat from any high-temperature heat source, such as concentrated solar or from conventional thermal/nuclear generation. As such, RTES can potentially play a significant role in meeting the energy storage shortfall in the coming decades. RTES can provide energy arbitrage through both the storage and production of thermal energy stored in geologic formations for direct use applications and can serve as a source of hot fluids that can be used to generate electricity to support peak demand ramping, thus easing stress on transmission and distribution. This energy storage option has geographic benefits in that energy can be stored locally or regionally depending on the various needs/loads. RTES can also be located across an enormous geographic area, without the need for a traditional hydrothermal resource but where thermal gradients and hydrogeology allow economic exploitation of subsurface heat. The work conducted for this project includes (1) a review of lessons learned from past high-temperature RTES international projects; (2) geochemical experimental investigation and numerical simulations of potential domestic sedimentary reservoirs and (3) development of a thermo-hydrological-mechanical (THM) numerical simulation tool for optimizing formation properties and design parameters to maximize thermal energy storage performance.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part II: Statistical Downscaling

Abstract Capacity factors (CFs) derived from daily expected power at 22 operating wind farms in different regions of North America are used as predictands to train statistical downscaling algorithms using output from ERA5. The statistical downscaling models are then used to make CF projections for a suite of CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs). Downscaling is performed using a hybrid statistical approach that employs synoptic types derived using k -means clustering applied to sea level pressure fields with variance corrections applied as a function of the pressure gradient intensity. ESMs exhibit marked variability in terms of the skill with which the frequency of synoptic types and pressure gradients are reproduced relative to ERA5, and that differential skill is used to infer differential credibility in the associated CF projections. Projections of median annual mean CF [P50(CF)] in each 20-yr period from 1980 to 2099 show evidence of declines at most wind farms except in parts of the southern Great Plains, although the magnitude of the changes is strongly dependent on the ESM. For example, P50(CF) in 2080–99 deviate from those in 1980–99 by from −3.1 to +0.2 percentage points in the Northeast. The largest-magnitude declines in P50(CF) ranging from −3.9 to −2 percentage points are projected for the southern West Coast. CF trends exhibit marked seasonality and are strongly linked to changes in the relative intensity of future synoptic patterns, with much less impact from shifts in the occurrence of synoptic types over time. Internal climate modes continue to play a significant role in inducing interannual variability in wind power production, even under high radiative forcing scenarios. Significance Statement We describe how future climate changes may affect wind resources and wind power generation. Near-term changes in projected wind power electricity generation potential at operating wind farms over North America are small, but by the end of the current century electricity production is projected to decrease in many areas but may increase in parts of the southern Great Plains. The amount of change in projected wind power production is a strong function of the Earth system model that is downscaled and also depends on the continued presence of internally forced climate variability. An additional dependence on the amount of greenhouse gas–induced global warming indicates the transition of the energy sector to low-carbon sources may assist in maintaining the abundant U.S. wind resource.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

An integrated approach to understanding RF vacuum arcs

Although used in the design and costing of large projects such as linear colliders and fusion tokamaks, the theory of vacuum arcs and gradient limits is not well understood. Almost 120 years after the isolation of vacuum arcs, the exact mechanisms of the arcs and the damage they produce are still being debated. We describe our simple and general model of the vacuum arc that can incorporate all active mechanisms and aims to explain all relevant data. Our four stage model, is based on experiments done at 805 MHz with a variety of cavity geometries, magnetic fields, and experimental techniques as well as data from Atom Probe Tomography and failure analysis of microelectronics. The model considers the trigger, plasma formation, plasma evolution and surface damage phases of the RF arc. This paper also examines how known mechanisms can explain the observed sharp field dependence, fast breakdown times and observed surface damage. We update the model and discuss new features while also pointing out where new data would be useful in extending the model to a wider range of frequencies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing the intracluster light over the redshift range 0.2 < z < 0.8 in the DES-ACT overlap

ABSTRACT We characterize the properties and evolution of bright central galaxies (BCGs) and the surrounding intracluster light (ICL) in galaxy clusters identified in the Dark Energy Survey and Atacama Cosmology Telescope Survey (DES-ACT) overlapping regions, covering the redshift range 0.20 < z < 0.80. Over this redshift range, we measure no change in the ICL’s stellar content (between 50 and 300 kpc) in clusters with log10(M200m,SZ/M⊙) >14.4. We also measure the stellar mass–halo mass (SMHM) relation for the BCG+ICL system and find that the slope, β, which characterizes the dependence of M200m,SZ on the BCG+ICL stellar mass, increases with radius. The outskirts are more strongly correlated with the halo than the core, which supports that the BCG+ICL system follows a two-phase growth, where recent growth (z < 2) occurs beyond the BCG’s core. Additionally, we compare our observed SMHM relation results to the IllustrisTNG300-1 cosmological hydrodynamic simulations and find moderate qualitative agreement in the amount of diffuse light. However, the SMHM relation’s slope is steeper in TNG300-1 and the intrinsic scatter is lower, likely from the absence of projection effects in TNG300-1. Additionally, we find that the ICL exhibits a colour gradient such that the outskirts are bluer than the core. Moreover, for the lower halo mass clusters (log10(M200m,SZ/M⊙) < 14.59), we detect a modest change in the colour gradient’s slope with lookback time, which combined with the absence of stellar mass growth may suggest that lower mass clusters have been involved in growth via tidal stripping more recently than their higher mass counterparts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Progression to Compatibility Evaluations in Flowing Molten Salts

Molten salt compatibility with structural alloys has been identified as a key issue for the development of Generation 3 concentrating solar power (CSP) systems with thermal storage. To accelerate this evaluation to pumped systems, the goal of this project was to conduct thermal convection loop (TCL) experiments with a peak temperature of ≥700°C and a typical temperature gradient of ~100°C. The experiments indicated that conventional ~16wt.%Cr Ni-based alloys are compatible up to 700°C with purified (i.e. low O) or dried (low H₂O) industrial-sourced Mg-K-Na chloride salt with <10 μm/yr loss. This two-year project was conducted based on the experimental and mechanistic understanding developed more than 60 years ago at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The first TCL experiment met the <15 μm/yr corrosion metric for this project with specimens of Ni-based alloy 600 exposed at 580°-700°C for 1000 h and post-exposure room temperature tensile tests showed minimal degradation. The second TCL experiment successfully deployed an electrochemical sensor from Argonne National Laboratory and had a peak temperature of 750°C but only ran for ~110 h due to a furnace failure. Both experiments used highly purified industrial-sourced salt with an O content of ~3 μg O/g salt and a Mg addition of 0.04 wt.%. In the second year, the Chloride Collective developed a more economical drying procedure such that the O content was much higher (>20,000 μg O/g salt). A third TCL experiment was conducted with a sensor and a peak temperature of 700°C using dried salt from the same industrial source and increased NaCl content (~20 wt.%). In addition to a 0.05% Mg addition to the salt, a Mg coupon was added in the coldest part of the loop which dissolved during the experiment. Again, small mass changes were noted for specimens of alloys 600 and C276 but the values were slightly higher than those measured in purified salt with Mg. A thin non-continuous and non-adherent oxide layer was deposited on most specimens containing Mg, Si and Al but Cr depletion also was observed. Both years included facilities qualification crucible experiments and then capsule experiments to confirm a baseline isothermal reaction rate. The first year capsule experiment led to the conclusion that the two-stage ORNL purification process using NH₄Cl and CCl₄ left the salt with a high Cl potential and a Mg addition (~0.05wt.%) was needed to lower the potential. The second year capsule experiments at 600° and 700°C found little difference in depth of attack for 0-0.25%Mg additions. In general, the complex reactions where salt can be trapped in the porous surface layer of metal indicated that mass change is an unreliable metric and average depth of Cr depletion is a better metric for assessing the extent of attack. These results have created a new baseline that is contrary to the recent published literature for chloride salts where mass losses have been reported that can be extrapolated to very significant annual metal loss rates. Chloride salt corrosion can be controlled and the results also indicate that salt purification to low O levels may not be necessary. However, additional TCL experiments are needed at different times and temperatures to generate important engineering information such as temperature dependent corrosion rates and reaction rate laws for extrapolation to long-term behavior and isolate the effect of salt additives and impurities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Offshore application of landslide susceptibility mapping using gradient-boosted decision trees: a Gulf of Mexico case study

Abstract Among natural hazards occurring offshore, submarine landslides pose a significant risk to offshore infrastructure installations attached to the seafloor. With the offshore being important for current and future energy production, there is a need to anticipate where future landslide events are likely to occur to support planning and development projects. Using the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) as a case study, this paper performs Landslide Susceptibility Mapping (LSM) using a gradient-boosted decision tree (GBDT) model to characterize the spatial patterns of submarine landslide probability over the United States Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) where water depths are greater than 120 m. With known spatial extents of historic submarine landslides and a Geographic Information System (GIS) database of known topographical, geomorphological, geological, and geochemical factors, the resulting model was capable of accurately forecasting potential locations of sediment instability. Results of a permutation modelling approach indicated that LSM accuracy is sensitive to the number of unique training locations with model accuracy becoming more stable as the number of training regions was increased. The influence that each input feature had on predicting landslide susceptibility was evaluated using the SHapely Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature attribution method. Areas of high and very high susceptibility were associated with steep terrain including salt basins and escarpments. This case study serves as an initial assessment of the machine learning (ML) capabilities for producing accurate submarine landslide susceptibility maps given the current state of available natural hazard-related datasets and conveys both successes and limitations.

Dyer, Alec S. (ORCID:0000000219813904)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivities of the West Greenland Current to Greenland Ice Sheet Meltwater in a Mesoscale Ocean/Sea Ice Model

Abstract Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet can alter the continental shelf/slope circulation and cross-shelf freshwater fluxes and limit deep convection in adjacent basins through surface freshening. We explore the impacts on the West Greenland Current and eastern Labrador Sea with different vertical distributions of the meltwater forcing. In this study, we present the results from global coupled ocean/sea ice simulations, forced with atmospheric reanalysis, that are mesoscale eddy-active (∼2–3-km horizontal spacing) and eddy-permitting (∼6–7-km horizontal spacing) in the study region. We compare the West Greenland Current in mesoscale eddy-active and eddy-permitting without meltwater to highlight the role of small-scale features. The mesoscale eddy-active configuration is then used to assess the change in the eastern Labrador Sea when meltwater is added to the surface or vertically distributed to account for mixing within fjords. In both simulations with meltwater, the West Greenland and West Greenland Coastal Currents are faster than in the simulation with no meltwater; their mean surface speeds are the highest in the vertical distribution case. In the latter case, there is enhanced baroclinic conversion at the shelf break compared to the simulation with no meltwater. When meltwater is vertically distributed, there is an increase in baroclinic conversion at the shelf break associated with increased eddy kinetic energy. In addition, in the eastern Labrador Sea, the salinity is lower and the meltwater volume is greater when meltwater is vertically distributed. Therefore, the West Greenland Current is sensitive to how meltwater is added to the ocean with implications for the freshening of the Labrador Sea. Significance Statement Our goal is to understand how the flux of freshwater across the West Greenland continental slope into the Labrador Sea is modified by meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet. We compare the simulations of the ocean that capture key dynamics along the West Greenland continental slope that have no meltwater, meltwater added to the ocean surface, and meltwater distributed vertically to represent the mixing within fjords. When meltwater is added, the currents along the continental slope are faster, with the greatest increase when meltwater is vertically distributed. In that case, there is enhanced freshening of the Labrador Sea because modified density gradients generate more eddies. Proper representation of the vertical structure of meltwater is important for projecting the impact of freshwater on the subpolar North Atlantic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data from: "Responses of alpine plant communities to climate warming"

The Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) was a common garden-climate manipulation experiment set up across an elevation gradient in Niwot Ridge, in the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA. The project sought to learn more about the effects of climate change on alpine and subalpine ecosystems, namely tree species ranges and alpine plant communities. Plots were experimentally manipulated using infrared heaters set up to warm plots to temperatures comparable to those projected for the year 2100. Other treatments include watering, and a combination of watering and heating. Three sites were set up at different elevations to study three tree species, with the highest-elevation “Alpine” site ( ~3540 m) containing twenty additional plots to study alpine plant communities. Data in this package originate from these unseeded alpine plots. To evaluate soil nitrogen availability given site treatments, resin bags were deployed, removed, and extracted annually to produce ammonium and nitrate/nitrite readings.--------------------------------------------------Data files within this archive are in comma-separated-values (.csv) and Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) formats. .csvs can be read and opened by Microsoft Excel, R, or any other simple text-editing software, and .xlsx files can be opened using Microsoft Excel. Geospatial data associated with this package are in .kml and ESRI shapefile (.shp) formats. .kml files can be read using Google Earth or Google Maps, and shapefiles can be read with any software compatible with the file type, such as QGIS or ESRI’s ArcMap suite.Data files in this package - excluding “Winkler_2019_ALPO_inorganic_N_allyears.csv” - are provided in both Microsoft Excel and .csv formats, for added accessibility and flexibility in workflows. File contents are identical.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-GeV FFA beam transport test at CEBAF

Jefferson National Lab plans an upgrade project to reach 22 GeV high polarization electron beam by using Fixed Field Alternating-gradient (FFA) magnets. The utilization of the FFA magnets for 10-22 GeV beam energy range is unexampled, therefore those magnets need an experimental validation before their full installation to form an arc in the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). For this reason, JLAB is also considering the design of an FFA magnet test bench, i.e. a half or full FFA cell, that would be deployed in the current CEBAF in order to serve as the highest energy demonstration for the FFA field uniformity, permanent magnet resiliency with the beam as well as enabling beam optics measurements with the 5-11 GeV range highly polarized beams which closely resembles the full energy range of the 22 GeV upgrade. In this report, we present the status of the planned beamline for the FFA beam transport test at CEBAF.

Accelerator Physics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inter-ELM pedestal evolution and the role of edge fluctuations in the C-Mod and DIII-D tokamaks

Edge localized modes (ELMs) lead to a cyclical behaviour of the H-mode pedestal density, temperature and pressure. Substantial evidence exists associating the ELM crash with violation of ideal MHD stability, via current driven kink/peeling modes and/or pressure gradient driven ballooning modes. Recovery from ELM crashes and buildup to the next ELM crash is an active and critical area of edge physics research for ITER projections. In one set of theories, the pedestal pressure profile in H-mode discharges is predicted to be limited by micro-instabilities. One such micro-instability is the kinetic ballooning mode (KBM), which is hypothesized to provide a ‘soft’ limit that regulates the edge transport, thereby restricting the local pressure gradient. In this picture, e.g. in the EPED model, the pedestal width expands slowly until the ideal MHD stability limit is reached. Experiments were recently performed on the C-Mod and DIII-D devices to search for instabilities correlated with the pedestal evolution between ELMs. The results show correlations between the onset of quasi-coherent fluctuations between type I ELMs and a critical temperature gradient. Linear gyrokinetic calculations have shown that these fluctuations have characteristics similar to those expected for KBMs. These results provide additional data toward validation of the EPED model, increasing confidence in ITER projections.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Insights Into Nature-Based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability

Successful implementation of forest management as a nature-based climate solution is dependent on the durability of management-induced changes in forest carbon storage and sequestration. As forests face unprecedented stability risks in the face of ongoing climate change, much remains unknown regarding how management will impact forest stability, or how interactions with climate might shift the response of forests to management across spatiotemporal scales. Here, we used a process-based model to simulate multidecadal projections of forest dynamics in response to changes in management and climate. Simulations were conducted across gradients in forest type, edaphic factors, and management intensity under two alternate radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This allowed for the quantification of forest stability shifts in response to climate change, and the role of management in modulating that response, where ecosystem stability is characterized as the resilience and temporal stability of net primary production, aboveground biomass, and soil carbon. Our results indicate that forest structure is primarily shaped by management, but the same management strategy often produced divergent structures over time, due to interactions with regional climate change. We found that management can be used to increase stability and minimize the release of stored carbon by reducing mortality, but also highlight the regional dependency of management-induced changes in resilience to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolution of a Geological Model for Co-Producing Electricity at the Blackburn Oil Field, Nevada: Preprint

Oil fields characterized by significant proportions of hot water in the reservoir offer a unique opportunity for geothermal energy co-production and utilization. Development of an accurate geological model is essential in understanding the subsurface. However, this is a challenge at the preliminary stages of resource assessment when data on the subsurface parameters and subterranean fault network is scarce. Our focus in this paper is to explore a methodology for developing an accurate conceptual geological model of the complexly faulted reservoir at the Blackburn Field, Nevada, to create a numerical simulation that will eventually be used to assess the potential of co-producing electricity. There are four steps to the evolution of this model: (1) collection of public data and research on the geological setting of the system; (2) digitization of seismic time-interpretation and cross-sections to create the most representative model of the subsurface; and (3) creation of a natural-state numerical model to simulate the thermal gradient through the subsurface. Utilizing publicly available data of the geological system and Leapfrog conceptual modeling software, we refined a preliminary model to be more representative of the subsurface geology of an active geothermal exploration stage project. The conceptual geological model developed has been imported into VOLSUNG reservoir modeling software to create a natural-state model, further characterizing the Blackburn Field reservoir's thermal gradient. In the future, new seismic data will be utilized to further evolve the conceptual geological model for numerical simulations.

Basin and Range province↗