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DOE OSTI2022

We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems

Climate change is an existential threat to the vast global permafrost domain. The diverse human cultures, ecological communities, and biogeochemical cycles of this tenth of the planet depend on the persistence of frozen conditions. The complexity, immensity, and remoteness of permafrost ecosystems make it difficult to grasp how quickly things are changing and what can be done about it. Here, we summarize terrestrial and marine changes in the permafrost domain with an eye toward global policy. While many questions remain, we know that continued fossil fuel burning is incompatible with the continued existence of the permafrost domain as we know it. If we fail to protect permafrost ecosystems, the consequences for human rights, biosphere integrity, and global climate will be severe. The policy implications are clear: the faster we reduce human emissions and draw down atmospheric CO 2 , the more of the permafrost domain we can save. Emissions reduction targets must be strengthened and accompanied by support for local peoples to protect intact ecological communities and natural carbon sinks within the permafrost domain. Some proposed geoengineering interventions such as solar shading, surface albedo modification, and vegetation manipulations are unproven and may exacerbate environmental injustice without providing lasting protection. Conversely, astounding advances in renewable energy have reopened viable pathways to halve human greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and effectively stop them well before 2050. We call on leaders, corporations, researchers, and citizens everywhere to acknowledge the global importance of the permafrost domain and work towards climate restoration and empowerment of Indigenous and immigrant communities in these regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effect of digestate and digestate supplemented with biochar on switchgrass growth and chemical composition

Digestate, a by-product of anaerobic digestion, can be an excellent source of nutrients for bioenergy crop production, while biochar, resulting from pyrolyzing biomass, can valorize the nutrients of digestate. The objective of this study was to evaluate the nutritional value of digestate and digestate + biochar for switchgrass production. The greenhouse experiment was conducted to determine the effects of a nitrogen (N) source including 0 N (control), urea (nutrient control), sewage sludge digestate, and sewage sludge digestate + corn stover biochar on switchgrass growth and feedstock composition. Nitrogen sources were observed to significantly increase plant weight at the 32-week harvest, with weight ranging from 94.2 to 125.2 g plant -1 , depending on the N source, compared to 70.7 g plant -1 from the negative control. Moreover, switchgrass treated with digestate + biochar showed higher plant weight than samples treated only with digestate. Nitrogen application of urea, digestate, and digestate + biochar had positive effects on plant height and total leaf area in the 32-week harvests and chlorophyll content in the 8-week harvests. Feedstock quality traits including hemicellulose, cellulose, and lignin content were not affected by N sources in either the 8 or 32-week harvests with the exception of ash concentration in the 32-week harvests. Our results indicate that digestate and digestate + biochar can be a potential substitute for chemical fertilizer, resulting in increased biomass yield.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Legacy and Contemporary Nitrogen Inputs on N 2 O and CO 2 Emissions in Miscanthus and Maize Cultivated Soils

ABSTRACT Nutrient inputs influence the sustainability of bioenergy crop production through contemporary (shortly after addition) and legacy effects (persisting over years) on microbial nitrogen (N) and carbon cycling, which contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. However, the relative importance of contemporary and legacy effects and how that could vary by crop functional types is poorly understood. Considering its rhizomatous roots and perennial growth, we hypothesized that Miscanthus × giganteus (M×g) would be more sensitive to legacy N fertilization and the historical context of its environment than an annual crop like maize. To test this hypothesis, we examined the effects of legacy and contemporary N inputs on nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, as well as key N cycling genes in soils where M×g and maize were grown. A 150‐day soil incubation experiment was conducted using soils from a long‐term M×g and maize fertility experiment with three historic N fertilization rates (0, 112, and 336 kg N ha −1 year −1 ) and a contemporary amendment (60 mg N kg −1 ) with negative control (0 mg N kg −1 ). We observed significant increases in cumulative N 2 O emissions in Mxg soils relative to maize soils, particularly at higher legacy fertilization rates, while contemporary N had no significant effect. Bacterial amo A gene abundance, which plays a significant role in nitrification in nutrient‐rich soils, also increased with higher legacy fertilization rates in M×g soils but was unaffected by the contemporary N. In maize soils, legacy and contemporary N did not significantly affect N 2 O emissions, but cumulative CO 2 emissions and amo A gene abundance significantly increased. The abundances of nor B genes were not significantly influenced by either legacy fertilization or contemporary N amendments in either soil. Our findings demonstrate the greater importance of fertilization history over contemporary N in mediating soil N 2 O emissions, particularly for perennial bioenergy crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

germs-lab/PAPER_miscanthus_soil_response

Nutrient inputs influence the sustainability of bioenergy crop production through contemporary (shortly after addition) and legacy effects (persisting over years) on microbial nitrogen (N) and carbon cycling, which contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. However, the relative importance of contemporary and legacy effects and how that could vary by crop functional types is poorly understood. Considering its rhizomatous roots and perennial growth, we hypothesized that Miscanthus × giganteus (M×g) would be more sensitive to legacy N fertilization and the historical context of its environment than an annual crop like maize. To test this hypothesis, we examined the effects of legacy and contemporary N inputs on nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, as well as key N cycling genes in soils where M×g and maize were grown. A 150-day soil incubation experiment was conducted using soils from a long-term M×g and maize fertility experiment with three historic N fertilization rates (0, 112, and 336 kg N ha−1 year−1) and a contemporary amendment (60 mg N kg−1) with negative control (0 mg N kg−1). We observed significant increases in cumulative N2O emissions in Mxg soils relative to maize soils, particularly at higher legacy fertilization rates, while contemporary N had no significant effect. Bacterial amoA gene abundance, which plays a significant role in nitrification in nutrient-rich soils, also increased with higher legacy fertilization rates in M×g soils but was unaffected by the contemporary N. In maize soils, legacy and contemporary N did not significantly affect N2O emissions, but cumulative CO2 emissions and amoA gene abundance significantly increased. The abundances of norB genes were not significantly influenced by either legacy fertilization or contemporary N amendments in either soil. Our findings demonstrate the greater importance of fertilization history over contemporary N in mediating soil N2O emissions, particularly for perennial bioenergy crops.

Lee, Jaejin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Influence of open ocean biogeochemistry on aerosol and clouds: Recent findings and perspectives

Aerosols and clouds are key components of the marine atmosphere, impacting the Earth’s radiative budget with a net cooling effect over the industrial era that counterbalances greenhouse gas warming, yet with an uncertain amplitude. Here we report recent advances in our understanding of how open ocean aerosol sources are modulated by ocean biogeochemistry and how they, in turn, shape cloud coverage and properties. We organize these findings in successive steps from ocean biogeochemical processes to particle formation by nucleation and sea spray emissions, further particle growth by condensation of gases, the potential to act as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nucleating particles, and finally, their effects on cloud formation, optical properties, and life cycle. We discuss how these processes may be impacted in a warming climate and the potential for ocean biogeochemistry—climate feedbacks through aerosols and clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The climate change mitigation potential of annual grasslands under future climates

Abstract Composted manure and green waste amendments have been shown to increase net carbon (C) sequestration in rangeland soils and have been proposed as a means to help lower atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. However, the effect of climate change on soil organic C (SOC) stocks and greenhouse gas emissions in rangelands is not well understood, and the viability of climate change mitigation strategies under future conditions is even less certain. We used a process‐based biogeochemical model (DayCent) at a daily time step to explore the long‐term effects of potential future climate changes on C and greenhouse gas dynamics in annual grassland ecosystems. We then used the model to explore how the same ecosystems might respond to climate change following compost amendments to soils and determined the long‐term viability of net SOC sequestration under changing climates. We simulated net primary productivity (NPP), SOC, and greenhouse gas fluxes across seven California annual grasslands with and without compost amendments. We drove the DayCent simulations with field data and with site‐specific daily climate data from two Earth system models (CanESM2 and HadGEM‐ES) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) through 2100. NPP and SOC stocks in unamended and amended ecosystems were surprisingly insensitive to projected climate changes. A one‐time amendment of compost to rangeland acted as a slow‐release organic fertilizer and increased NPP by up to 390–814 kg C ha −1 year −1 across sites. The amendment effect on NPP was not sensitive to Earth system model or emissions scenario and endured through the end of the century. Net SOC sequestration amounted to 1.96 ± 0.02 Mg C ha −1 relative to unamended soils at the maximum amendment effect. Averaged across sites and scenarios, SOC sequestration peaked 22 ± 1 years after amendment and declined but remained positive throughout the century. Though compost stimulated nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions, the cumulative net emissions (in CO 2 equivalents) due to compost were far less than the amount of SOC sequestered. Compost amendments resulted in a net climate benefit of 69.6 ± 0.5 Tg CO 2 e 20 ± 1 years after amendment if applied to similar ecosystems across the state, amounting to 39% of California's rangeland. These results suggest that the biogeochemical benefits of a single amendment of compost to rangelands in California are insensitive to climate change and could contribute to decadal‐scale climate change mitigation goals alongside emissions reductions.

Mayer, Allegra↗

DOE OSTI2021

Molecular dynamics simulations of energy accommodation between gases and polymers for ultra-low thermal conductivity insulation

Determining the energy accommodation between gases and solids is essential to developing porous thermal insulation materials with ultra-low effective thermal conductivity that reduce energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and fossil fuel consumption. The energy accommodation coefficients of most gases, however, have been rarely studied, especially with respect to solids that have relatively high thermal resistivity, e.g., polymers. Here, by using all-atom nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, we reveal the accommodation coefficients of He, Ar, N 2 , and O 2 with polymers, mainly polystyrene. We find that their values are around 0.51, 0.72, 0.79, and 0.90, respectively, suggesting a critical reexamination of the commonly used theoretical maximum value of 1. We have also conducted experiments and validated the value for air, which is about 0.81. Such a change in accommodation coefficients can lead to a reduction of about 70%, 50%, 35%, and 20% in the thermal conductivity of He, Ar, N 2 , and O 2 gases in nano pores (below 100 nm) or at low pressures (below 1 millibar). With these new accommodation coefficients, we find that in a 10 nm pore with ambient pressure at 300 K, the gas thermal conductivity of He, Ar, N 2 , and O 2 in porous polystyrene can be as low as 9.7 × 10 –4 , 3.4 × 10 –4 , 7.3 × 10 –4 , and 8.5 × 10 –4 W·m –1 ·K –1 , respectively, which are two to three orders of magnitude lower than their bulk values, promising higher thermal resistivity of insulation materials. This work reveals the fundamental energy exchange between gases and polymers, providing important guidance for designing high-performance thermal insulation materials for various applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Decarbonizing the US Energy System

Recent rapid and unexpected cost reductions in decarbonization technologies have accelerated the cost-effective decarbonization of the US economy, with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions falling by 20% from 2005 to 2020. The literature on US economy-wide decarbonization focuses on maximizing long-term GHG emissions reduction strategies that rely mostly on renewable energy expansion, electrification, and efficiency improvements to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. While these studies provide a valuable foundation, further research is needed to properly support decarbonization policy development and implementation. In this review, we identify key decarbonization analysis gaps and opportunities, including issues related to cross-sectoral linkages, spatial and temporal granularity, consumer behavior, emerging technologies, equity and environmental justice, and political economy. We conclude by discussing the implications of these analysis gaps for US decarbonization pathways and how they relate to challenges facing major global emitters.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of the effects of turbulence modeling on the prediction of compression-ignition combustion unsteadiness

Adverse effects of global warming due to the greenhouse gas emissions is changing the actual paradigm for the use energy resources. In the absence of a mid-term solution for reducing these emissions in transportation, internal combustion (IC) engines are going to coexist in the social spheres in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the study of other IC engine-related problems remains relevant to ensuring the health of the society. In this investigation, a numerical methodology for comprehensive understanding of Noise, Vibration and Harshness in internal combustion engines is proposed. Due to its inherent complexity and lack of awareness, the main objective is to evaluate the impact of the turbulence modeling framework on the in-cylinder acoustic field recreation. Modal decomposition methods have been applied to isolate the coherent flow structures and to analyze how they change with the turbulence approach. Results demonstrate that the choice of the turbulence model is a critical aspect for noise modeling. Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes schemes predict a raw estimation of the internal acoustic field with the added value of being computationally less expensive. However, the use of more complex turbulence approaches such us large eddy simulation offers an accurate prediction of the acoustic structures and their cyclic dispersion.

Broatch, A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of prechamber enabled mixing-controlled combustion strategy for ultra-low methane emissions from lean burn natural gas engines

This numerical study explores the optimization of Prechamber Enabled Mixing-Controlled Combustion (PC-MCC) using natural gas in heavy-duty engines, aiming to enhance combustion efficiency to minimize methane slip and NOx emissions. The approach involves a prechamber ignition system, distinct from conventional spark ignition (SI) systems, to initiate combustion of direct injected natural gas. By leveraging the robust ignition characteristics of the prechamber, the PC-MCC method demonstrates significant potential in achieving efficient combustion akin to diesel engines but with lower greenhouse gas emissions. The research evaluates the effects of various geometric and operational parameters on the combustion process and emissions, including prechamber volume, nozzle diameter, direct injector (DI) geometry, and engine operating strategies. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations are utilized, focusing on a heavy-duty, single-cylinder engine modeled after the Caterpillar C9.3B engine. Key findings indicate that a prechamber volume of 3 cc, coupled with a nozzle diameter of 2.75 mm for two prechamber holes, strikes an optimal balance between combustion efficiency and emissions reduction. This configuration ensures robust combustion across a range of operating conditions while maintaining methane slip within targeted limits. Further investigation into DI geometry shows the significance of the injector umbrella angle and nozzle diameter in shaping the fuel-air mixing and combustion dynamics. An umbrella angle of 130° and a nozzle diameter of 300 microns are identified as optimal, promoting rapid and efficient combustion with minimized methane and NOx emissions. The study also investigates the impact of injection timing and pressure, highlighting their roles in controlling combustion timing and influencing emissions levels. Advanced injection timing is found to be crucial in achieving the desired low methane slip, whereas retarded injection timing assists to reduce NOx emissions while having a slight increase in methane emissions. Operating strategies incorporating various levels of Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) are assessed for their effectiveness in further reducing emissions. The research demonstrates that a judicious combination of internal hot EGR and careful calibration of DI pressure and SOI timing can achieve significant reductions in NOx emissions while keeping methane slip under control. Specifically, an internal EGR level of 15%–25%, combined with DI pressures of 200–300 bar and injection timings at or after top dead center, is recommended. These findings contribute valuable insights into the development of advanced combustion techniques for natural gas engines, offering a viable pathway to reduce methane slip without compromising engine efficiency or performance. The PC-MCC system presents a promising solution for the future of heavy-duty natural gas engine technology to reduce methane emissions.

Nsaif, Osama↗

DOE OSTI2022

Prairie Strips and Lower Land Use Intensity Increase Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

Agricultural landscapes can be managed to protect biodiversity and maintain ecosystem services. One approach to achieve this is to restore native perennial vegetation within croplands. Where rowcrops have displaced prairie, as in the US Midwest, restoration of native perennial vegetation can align with crops in so called “prairie strips.” We tested the effect of prairie strips in addition to other management practices on a variety of taxa and on a suite of ecosystem services. To do so, we worked within a 33-year-old experiment that included treatments that varied methods of agricultural management across a gradient of land use intensity. In the two lowest intensity crop management treatments, we introduced prairie strips that occupied 5% of crop area. We addressed three questions: (1) What are the effects of newly established prairie strips on the spillover of biodiversity and ecosystem services into cropland? (2) How does time since prairie strip establishment affect biodiversity and ecosystem services? (3) What are the tradeoffs and synergies among biodiversity conservation, non-provisioning ecosystem services, and provisioning ecosystem services (crop yield) across a land use intensity gradient (which includes prairie strips)? Within prairie strip treatments, where sampling effort occurred within and at increasing distance from strips, dung beetle abundance, spider abundance and richness, active carbon, decomposition, and pollination decreased with distance from prairie strips, and this effect increased between the first and second year. Across the entire land use intensity gradient, treatments with prairie strips and reduced chemical inputs had higher butterfly abundance, spider abundance, and pollination services. In addition, soil organic carbon, butterfly richness, and spider richness increased with a decrease in land use intensity. Crop yield in one treatment with prairie strips was equal to that of the highest intensity management, even while including the area taken out of production. We found no effects of strips on ant biodiversity and greenhouse gas emissions (N 2 O and CH 4 ). Our results show that, even in early establishment, prairie strips and lower land use intensity can contribute to the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services without a disproportionate loss of crop yield.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Oxygen Storage Components in Prototype Pd-Based Three-Way Catalysts under Exhaust Conditions Relevant to Propane Engines

With increasing concerns about global warming, the push for sustainable and eco-friendly fuels is accelerating. Propane, recognized as liquefied petroleum gas or LPG, has garnered research interest as an alternative fuel due to its notable advantages, including a high-octane rating, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and potential cost-effectiveness. However, to realize its full potential as an alternative fuel it is essential to develop catalysts that efficiently handle emissions at low temperatures. In our research, we investigated three distinct palladium (Pd)-based three-way catalyst (TWC) formulations (PdRh, Pd-only, and Pd-OSC) to investigate the influence of typical TWC components rhodium (Rh) and oxygen storage components (OSC) in exhaust scenarios relevant to propane-fueled engines. Among these, the formulation containing oxygen storage components (Pd-OSC) showed the highest reactivity for both NO and C 3 H 8 while minimizing performance degradation from hydrothermal aging (HTA). Notably, the temperature of 50% conversion (T50) for propane in the Pd-OSC fresh and HTA sample was lower by 30 °C and 13 °C, respectively, compared to the Pd-only sample, highlighting the role of oxygen storage materials in enhancing catalyst performance, even without dithering. Additionally, N 2 physisorption showed that the PdOSC sample has a higher surface area and increased pore volume. This underscores the idea that OSC materials not only augment the catalyst’s porosity but also optimize reactant accessibility to active sites, thus elevating catalytic efficiency. In addition to evaluating performance, we further explored the performance and characteristics of the catalysts using catalytic probe reactions, such as water–gas shift and steam reforming reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

kemmerl4/LTER_prairie_strip_2019-2020: Data for: Prairie strips and lower land use intensity increase biodiversity and ecosystem services

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Desorption Electrospray Ionization–Mass Spectrometry Imaging Provides Spatiochemical Information on Potential Biocontrol Agents against Phytophthora capsici Infection in Tomato Plants

Biological control agents can offer an eco-friendly and more sustainable alternative to conventional chemical pesticides, providing protection against destructive pathogens, such as Phytophthora capsici, while reducing potential environmental harm associated with synthetic pesticide use in agricultural systems. This work evaluates the biocontrol effectiveness of Bacillus vallismortis, Bacillus amyloliquefaciens, Bacillus thuringiensis, and Bacillus subtilis, against the widespread plant pathogen Phytophthora capsici. Our studies showed that Bacillus thuringiensis and Bacillus subtilis promote plant growth and provide protection against Phytophthora capsici in both in vitro and in vivo greenhouse studies, while Bacillus vallismortis and Bacillus amyloliquefaciens were effective in vitro but not in vivo. Specifically, Bacillus thuringiensis was observed to both hinder the growth of Phytophthora capsici and enhance plant resilience to this pathogen, with B. thuringiensis-treated, pathogen-exposed plants displaying a 94.4% increase in root length and a 74.0% increase in shoot height compared to plants with only oomycete exposure. To probe the molecular interactions between the biocontrol agent and pathogen, a dual culture of Bacillus thuringiensis and Phytophthora capsici was analyzed in situ using a desorption electrospray ionization–mass spectrometry imaging (DESI-MSI) workflow. This approach interrogated the spatially oriented biochemical interactions that may serve as the molecular foundation for the effectiveness of these biological control agents in crop protection, identifying seven unique phenotypic regions within the dual culture. Herein, we demonstrate the benefits of biological control agent application in tomato cultivation and showcase the strengths of desorption electrospray ionization–mass spectrometry imaging when applied to the spatially resolved molecular characterization of agriculturally relevant microorganisms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Modular System for Increasing Predictiveness for Extreme Climate Predictions

We know that climate change is poised to reshape our world, but we lack clear enough predictions about precisely how. The preponderance of these changes is associated with human activity, specifically the emission of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases. Problematically, projections of climate change continue to be marred by unacceptably large uncertainties which hamper informed decision-making and cost society a chance to adapt proactively and effectively. These uncertainties stem from deficiencies in predictions of future greenhouse gas emissions, but also from inaccuracies in the representation of the physical models used to predict the climate response to such emissions. The uncertainties in projections associated with the inaccurate representation of climate physics, chemistry and biology are similar to those that plagued the first global climate models developed fifty years ago, despite more than a factor 10 8 increase in computer performance. Our transformational question is then, how can the accuracy of climate projections be dramatically improved by applying recent advances in the computational and data sciences to train the models with the wealth of data being constantly collected about the ongoing changes in the climate system?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Humidity’s impact on greenhouse gas emissions from air conditioning

We report that the increasing need to cool the air in our built environment is both a cause and an effect of climate change. Air conditioning accounts for a large portion of global greenhouse gas emissions today, which we estimate at 3.9%; however, the role that humidity plays in these emissions is often overlooked. Here, we show that the emissions associated with reducing air humidity (i.e., removing water vapor from air) are larger than emissions associated with reducing air temperature (i.e., cooling air). We calculate these emissions for today and 2050 and show how dramatically humidity-related emissions will increase with rising cooling demand around the world. We also calculate the minimum separation energy for removing water vapor from air and find that this is at least an order of magnitude less than the processes used today.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Greenhouse gas and dissolved oxygen production and consumption rates associated with Regier et al. (2023)

Tidal inundation along the coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface controls soil and sediment biogeochemistry and gas dynamics. Although a rich literature exist on studies of the influence of tidal waters on the biogeochemistry of coastal ecosystem soils, few studies have experimentally addressed the reverse question: How do soils (or sediments) from different coastal ecosystems influence the biogeochemistry of the tidal waters that inundate them? We conducted short-term microcosm laboratory experiments where seawater was amended with sediments and soils collected across regional gradients of inundation exposure (i.e., frequently to rarely inundated) and measured changes in dissolved oxygen and greenhouse gas concentrations to calculate gas consumption or production rates occurring during seawater exposure to terrestrial materials. This data package contains dissolved oxygen and greenhouse gas data collected during incubation of soils and sediments collected at 18 sites, which were used in the publication Regier et al. (2023) entitled “Coastal inundation regime moderates the short-term effects of sediment and soil additions on seawater oxygen and greenhouse gas dynamics: a microcosm experiment” which is published in Frontiers in Marine Science (DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1308590).---Acknowledging EXCHANGE: General Support and Data Product UseWe ask that users of EXCHANGE data add the following acknowledgement when publishing data in scholarly articles and data repositories:"This research is based on work supported by COMPASS-FME, a multi-institutional project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Environmental System Science Program."

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Increasing wintertime cloud opacity increases surface longwave radiation at a long-term Arctic observatory

As the Arctic warms, winter clouds are known and expected to change. Yet the extent to which these cloud changes amplify or dampen warming (cloud feedback) remains uncertain. This uncertainty results from systemic difficulties in modeling and observing Arctic low clouds. Surface-based observations avoid many of these difficulties. Here, we use two decades of surface-based observations (1998–2023) to constrain and explain longwave flux change during winter. We find that longwave flux into the surface is increasing and that this increase cannot be explained by direct impacts of temperature and greenhouse gases alone. Only when increasing cloud radiative effect (0.96 ± 0.64 W/m 2 /K) is considered can increasing longwave flux be explained. Cloud radiative effect increases due to increasing cloud opacity, which is driven equally by ice-only and mixed-phase clouds. The direct observational constraint from this work suggests that increasing cloud opacity drives increasing net surface radiation on Alaska’s North Slope during winter.

Bertrand, Leah [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (Un↗