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At least 109 records · Page 6

Bioverse: A Simulation Framework to Assess the Statistical Power of Future Biosignature Surveys

Next-generation space observatories will conduct the first systematic surveys of terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres and search for evidence of life beyond Earth. While in-depth observations of the nearest habitable worlds may yield enticing results, there are fundamental questions about planetary habitability and evolution that can only be answered through population-level studies of dozens to hundreds of terrestrial planets. To determine the requirements for next-generation observatories to address these questions, we have developed Bioverse. Bioverse combines existing knowledge of exoplanet statistics with a survey simulation and hypothesis testing framework to determine whether proposed space-based direct imaging and transit-spectroscopy surveys will be capable of detecting various hypothetical statistical relationships between the properties of terrestrial exoplanets. Following a description of the code, we apply Bioverse to determine whether an ambitious direct imaging or transit survey would be able to determine the extent of the circumstellar habitable zone and study the evolution of Earth-like planets. Given recent evidence that Earth-sized habitable zone planets are likely much rarer than previously believed, we find that space missions with large search volumes will be necessary to study the population of terrestrial and habitable worlds. Moving forward, Bioverse provides a methodology for performing trade studies of future observatory concepts to maximize their ability to address population-level questions, including and beyond the specific examples explored here.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Mapping the Region in the Nearest Star System to Search for Habitable Planets

Circumstellar planets within the alpha Centauri AB star system have been suggested through formation models and recent observations, and ACESat (Belikov et al. AAS Meeting #225, #311.01, 2015) is a proposed space mission designed to directly image Earth-sized planets in the habitable zones of both of these stars. The alpha Centauri system is billions of years old, so planets are only expected to be found in regions where their orbits are long-lived. We evaluate the extent of the regions within the alpha Centauri AB star system where small planets are able to orbit for billion-year timescales and we map the positions in the sky plane where planets on stable orbits about either stellar component may appear. We confirm the qualitative results of Wiegert & Holman (Astron. J. 113, 1445, 1997) regarding the approximate size of the regions of stable orbits, which are larger for retrograde orbits relative to the binary than for prograde orbits. Additionally, we find that mean motion resonances with the binary orbit leave an imprint on the limits of orbital stability, and the effects of the Lidov-Kozai mechanism are also readily apparent. Overall, orbits in the habitable zones near the plane of the binary are stable, whereas high-inclination orbits are short-lived.

alpha Centauri AB star system↗

The Habitability of Proxima Centauri b: Environmental States and Observational Discriminants

Proxima Centauri b provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the evolution and nature of terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Although Proxima Cen b orbits within its star’s habitable zone, multiple plausible evolutionary paths could have generated different environments that may or may not be habitable. Here, we use 1-D coupled climate-photochemical models to generate self-consistent atmospheres for several evolutionary scenarios, including high-O2, high-CO2, and more Earth-like atmospheres, with both oxic and anoxic compositions. We show that these modeled environments can be habitable or uninhabitable at Proxima Cen b's position in the habitable zone. We use radiative transfer models to generate synthetic spectra and thermal phase curves for these simulated environments, and use instrument models to explore our ability to discriminate between possible planetary states. These results are applicable not only to Proxima Cen b but to other terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Thermal phase curves may provide the first constraint on the existence of an atmosphere. We find that James Webb Space Telescope ( JWST) observations longward of 10 mm could characterize atmospheric heat transport and molecular composition. Detection of ocean glint is unlikely with JWST but may be within the reach of larger-aperture telescopes. Direct imaging spectra may detect O4 absorption, which is diagnostic of massive water loss and O2 retention, rather than a photosynthetic biosphere. Similarly, strong CO2 and CO bands at wavelengths shortward of 2.5 mm would indicate a CO2-dominated atmosphere. If the planet is habitable and volatile-rich, direct imaging will be the best means of detecting habitability. Earth-like planets with microbial biospheres may be identified by the presence of CH4-which has a longer atmospheric lifetime under Proxima Centauri's incident UV-and either photosynthetically produced O2 or a hydrocarbon haze layer.

Meadows, Victoria S.↗

Atmospheric Escape Processes and Planetary Atmospheric Evolution: From Misconceptions to Challenges

The recent discoveries of telluric exoplanets in the habitable zone of different stars have led to questioning the nature of their atmosphere, which is required to determine their habitability. Atmospheric escape is one of the challenging problems to be solved: simply adapting what is currently observed in the solar system is doomed to fail due to the large variations in the conditions encountered around other stars. A better strategy is to evaluate the different processes that shaped planetary atmosphere and to evaluate their importance depending upon the stellar conditions. We reviewed the different escape mechanisms and their magnitude in function of different conditions [Gronoff et al. 2020]. This led us to discuss the importance of a magnetic field in protecting an atmosphere. The importance of the thermal escape, of polar wind, and of the transport of plasma within the magnetosphere are typically forgotten when claiming that magnetic fields are protecting planetary atmospheres and leading to their habitability. Overall, the habitability of a planet should not be claimed only on by its location in the habitable zone but also after careful analysis of the interaction between its atmosphere and its parent star . Gronoff, G., Arras, P., Baraka, S., Bell, J. M., Cessateur, G., Cohen, O., et al. ( 2020). Atmospheric Escape Processes and Planetary Atmospheric Evolution. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 125, e2019JA027639. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JA027639

G Gronoff↗

Towards A Better Measurement of eta-Earth and Beyond Via Modernizing the Kepler Pipeline: An Update

The measurement of the occurrence of rocky habitable-zone planets orbiting Sun-like stars (eta-Earth), is a fundamental quantity for guiding our search for habitable exoplanets. Despite being launched 15 years ago, NASA’s Kepler mission remains responsible for finding the majority of all known exoplanet candidates relevant to eta-Earth, ushering in a new era of exoplanet demographics studies and continuing to drive planet occurrence rate calculations. However, the paucity of detections of likely rocky planets in the habitable zones of their host stars remains a limiting factor for estimating eta-Earth. We describe our five-year project for modernizing the Kepler planet detection and vetting pipeline in order to produce a more complete and reliable exoplanet catalog, which will lead to more accurate and precise measurements of eta-Earth. First, we are currently porting the original Kepler pipeline code from MATLAB to Python. We will then describe new stellar catalogs based on Gaia and ground-based imaging data, and ways to improve the pipeline detection and vetting algorithms. We will provide an update on the current state of this work. When completed, we will use this new pipeline and catalog to calculate updated estimates of eta-Earth. The full, updated pipeline code in Python, as well as all our inputs and results, will be made available to the public for detailed exoplanet occurrence-rate and demographics studies.

kepler↗

Comparative Habitability of Transiting Exoplanets

Exoplanet habitability is traditionally assessed by comparing a planet’s semimajor axis to the location of its host star’s “habitable zone,” the shell around a star for which Earth-like planets can possess liquid surface water. The Kepler space telescope has discovered numerous planet candidates near the habitable zone, and many more are expected from missions such as K2, TESS, and PLATO. These candidates often require significant follow-up observations for validation, so prioritizing planets for habitability from transit data has become an important aspect of the search for life in the universe. We propose a method to compare transiting planets for their potential to support life based on transit data, stellar properties and previously reported limits on planetary emitted flux. For a planet in radiative equilibrium, the emitted flux increases with eccentricity, but decreases with albedo. As these parameters are often unconstrained, there is an “eccentricity-albedo degeneracy” for the habitability of transiting exoplanets. Our method mitigates this degeneracy, includes a penalty for large-radius planets, uses terrestrial mass–radius relationships, and, when available, constraints on eccentricity to compute a number we call the “habitability index for transiting exoplanets” that represents the relative probability that an exoplanet could support liquid surface water. We calculate it for Kepler objects of interest and find that planets that receive between 60% and 90% of the Earth’s incident radiation, assuming circular orbits, are most likely to be habitable. Finally, we make predictions for the upcoming TESS and James Webb Space Telescope missions.

Planet and satellite surfaces↗

Simulated Phase-dependent Spectra of Terrestrial Aquaplanets in M Dwarf Systems

Orbital phase-dependent variations in thermal emission and reflected stellar energy spectra can provide meaningful constraints on the climate states of terrestrial extrasolar planets orbiting M dwarf stars. Spatial distributions of water vapor, clouds, and surface ice are controlled by climate. In turn, water, in each of its thermodynamic phases, imposes significant modulations to thermal and reflected planetary spectra. Here we explore these characteristic spectral signals, based on 3D climate simulations of Earth-sized aquaplanets orbiting M dwarf stars near the habitable zone. By using 3D models, we can self-consistently predict surface temperatures and the location ofwater vapor, clouds, and surface ice in the climate system. Habitable zone planets in M dwarf systems are expected to be in synchronous rotation with their host star and thus present distinct differences in emitted and reflected energy fluxes depending on the observed hemisphere. Here we illustrate that icy, temperate, and incipient runaway greenhouse climate states exhibit phase-dependent spectral signals that enable their characterization.

Wolf, E. T.↗

The High-energy Radiation Environment around a 10 Gyr M Dwarf: Habitable at Last?

Recent work has demonstrated that high levels of X-ray and UV activity on young M dwarfs may drive rapid atmospheric escape on temperate, terrestrial planets orbiting within the habitable zone. However, secondary atmospheres on planets orbiting older, less active M dwarfs may be stable and present more promising candidates for biomarker searches. In order to evaluate the potential habitability of Earth-like planets around old, inactive M dwarfs, we present new Hubble Space Telescope and Chandra X-ray Observatory observations of Barnard’s Star (GJ 699), a 10 Gyr old M3.5 dwarf, acquired as part of the Mega-MUSCLES program. Despite the old age and long rotation period of Barnard’s Star, we observe two FUV (δ 130 ≈ 5000 s; E 130 ≈ 10 29.5 erg each) and one X-ray (E X ≈ 10 29.2 erg) flares, and we estimate a high-energy flare duty cycle (defined here as the fraction of the time the star is in a flare state) of ~25%. A publicly available 5 Å to 10 μm spectral energy distribution of GJ 699 is created and used to evaluate the atmospheric stability of a hypothetical, unmagnetized terrestrial planet in the habitable zone (r HZ ~ 0.1 au). Both thermal and nonthermal escape modeling indicate (1) the quiescent stellar XUV flux does not lead to strong atmospheric escape: atmospheric heating rates are comparable to periods of high solar activity on modern Earth, and (2) the flare environment could drive the atmosphere into a hydrodynamic loss regime at the observed flare duty cycle: sustained exposure to the flare environment of GJ 699 results in the loss of ≈87 Earth atmospheres Gyr -1 through thermal processes and ≈3 Earth atmospheres Gyr -1 through ion loss processes. These results suggest that if rocky planet atmospheres can survive the initial ~5 Gyr of high stellar activity, or if a second-generation atmosphere can be formed or acquired, the flare duty cycle may be the controlling stellar parameter for the stability of Earth-like atmospheres around old M stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

TRAPPIST-1 d: Exo-Venus, Exo-Earth, or Exo-Dead?

TRAPPIST-1 d is generally assumed to be at the boundary between a Venus-like world and an Earth-like world, although recently published works on TRAPPIST-1 b and c raise concerns that TRAPPIST-1 d may be similarly devoid of a substantial atmosphere. TRAPPIST-1 d is also relatively understudied in comparison with TRAPPIST-1 e. The latter has generally appeared to be within the habitable zone of most atmospheric modeling studies. Assuming that TRAPPIST-1 d still retains a substantial atmosphere, we demonstrate via a series of 3D general circulation model experiments using a dynamic ocean that the planet could reside within the habitable zone in a narrow parameter space. At the same time, it could also be an exo-Venus- or exo-Dead-type world or in transition between between one of these. Studies like this can help distinguish between these types of worlds.

Exoplanets↗

Science Yield Estimates and Sensitivities With the AstroPIC Integrated Photonic Coronagraph for the Habitable Worlds Observatory

The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) flagship has a goal to survey ~100 of the nearest stellar systems and their habitable zones in order to detector and spectroscopically characterize ~25 potentially “Earth-like planets” (or “Exoearths”). The HWO telescope will feature a >6-m diameter aperture and a coronagraph that will suppress starlight by ten orders of magnitude to enable the detection and characterization of Earth analogues in the habitable zone. Three Exploratory Analytic Cases (EACs) are currently considering different aperture configurations for HWO including on-axis and off-axis apertures and both different hexagonal and keystone segmentation configurations. Photonic Integrated Circuits (PICs) offer a path to miniaturize traditional, bulk optics coronagraph functionality reducing risk margins and increasing mission science exoearth yields for the HWO mission. We have developed a simulation pipeline that enables evaluation of the AstroPIC photonic integrated coronagraph through to estimates mission yields. We present sensitivities to aberrations for different types of segmentation and low-order aberrations for HWO EACs demonstrating that AstroPIC is suitable for both on-axis and off-axis configurations. We perform a parametric sweep of the exoearth science yield sensitivities in terms of key coronagraph parameters including coronagraphic end-to-end throughput, inner working angle, robustness to aberrations, and bandwidth. We consider both a hybrid and a pure photonic architecture; a pure integrated photonic architecture provides the greatest potential in science yield improvements, although a hybrid PIC limited in its numbers of modes can provide complementary science to a traditional, bulk-optic coronagraph and increasing the estimated science yield when operated jointly.

Photonics↗

The Exozodiacal Dust Problem for Direct Observations of ExoEarths

Debris dust in the habitable zones of stars otherwise known as exozodiacal dust comes from extrasolar asteroids and comets and is thus an expected part of a planetary system. Background flux from the Solar Systems zodiacal dust and the exozodiacal dust in the target system is likely to be the largest source of astrophysical noise in direct observations of terrestrial planets in the habitable zones of nearby stars. Furthermore, dust structures like clumps, thought to be produced by dynamical interactions with exoplanets, are a possible source of confusion. In this paper, we qualitatively assess the primary impact of exozodical dust on high-contrast direct imaging at optical wavelengths, such as would be performed with a coronagraph. Then we present the sensitivity of previous, current, and near-term facilities to thermal emission from debris dust at all distances from nearby solar-type stars, as well as our current knowledge of dust levels from recent surveys. Finally, we address the other method of detecting debris dust, through high-contrast imaging in scattered light. This method is currently far less sensitive than thermal emission observations, but provides high spatial resolution for studying dust structures. This paper represents the first report of NASA's Exoplanet Exploration Program Analysis Group (ExoPAG).

Roberge, Aki↗

Equilibrium Temperatures and Albedos of Habitable Earth-Like Planets in a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCM

The potential habitability of detected exoplanets is typically assessed using the concept of equilibrium temperature (T[subscript] e) based on cloud-free 1-D models with assumed albedo equal to Earth's (0.3) to determine whether a planet lies in the habitable zone. Incident stellar flux appears to be a better metric for stars unlike the Sun. These estimates, however, ignore the effect of clouds on planetary albedo and the fact that the climates of synchronously rotating planets are not well predicted by 1-D models. Given that most planet candidates that will be detected in the next few years will be tidally locked and orbiting M stars, how might the habitable zone e tailored to better in-form characterization with scarce observing resources?

Del Genio, Anthony↗

Options for Offloading a 90-Ton Common Habitat from its Lander on the Surface of Mars

The Common Habitat is a large, long-duration habitat being explored as part of a conceptual study (not an active NASA program) that uses an SLS core stage liquid oxygen (LOX) tank as its primary structure. Measuring 8.4 meters in diameter and 15.6 meters in length, it is manufactured as a habitat and launched as such into space. It is intended for use on the Moon as part of a permanently occupied outpost, on Mars as part of an outpost that will be occupied for hundreds of days at a time, and in deep space as part of the Deep Space Exploration Vehicle where it will support crewed missions up to 1200 days in duration. A study of internal orientation and crew size resulted in a Common Habitat configuration sized for a crew of eight with a three-deck horizontal orientation. There are obvious challenges associated with the delivery of such a large habitat, which may mass as much as 90-tons when initially deployed. The Mars destination in particular imposes extreme challenges due to Martian gravity. This paper identifies initial options for the offloading of a 90-ton Common Habitat from a lander spacecraft on the surface of Mars. On Mars, the Common Habitat is part of a surface outpost where a Habitation Zone includes the Common Habitat docked to a two-chamber airlock node, up to two logistics modules, and up to two pressurized rovers. It is connected by underground conduit to a radiator farm and communications tower assembly. These elements and other surface infrastructure, including robotic systems for surface preparation, are landed prior to the Common Habitat. In the baseline Common Habitat Architecture, the Common Habitat is delivered on the third heavy cargo flight. The Habitation Zone configuration dictates that the Common Habitat needs to be offloaded from the lander. All of the docked elements require direct access to the surface and the Common Habitat must actually be placed in a trench to lower its docking ports to be level with those of the mated elements. Additionally, the habitat must be emplaced in a horizontal configuration, while for any conceivable Earth launch system it must be launched in a vertical configuration. It is true that the Common Habitat must be offloaded from its lander on both the Moon and Mars and a common offloading system must therefore work in both destinations. Mars, however, is considered the driving case for offloading in most, but not all, aspects. A four-day internal study in 2021 recommended that a modified Starship be used to land the Common Habitat on Mars and considered multiple approaches to offload the Common Habitat from the payload section and lower it to the surface. The topic was presented at a public hackathon organized by the Johnson Space Center’s Emerge Employee Resource Group. One team took on the challenge and proposed a concept in some ways similar to the previously considered jib crane. Despite the excellent innovation in the team’s work, a number of study refinements are necessary to truly establish feasibility. These and other future work needed to mature the concept are discussed in this work.

Lander Offloading↗

Impacts of Space Weather on Climate and Habitability of Terrestrial Type Exoplanets

The current progress in the detection of terrestrial type exoplanets has opened a new avenue in the characterization of exoplanetary atmospheres and in the search for biosignatures of life with the upcoming ground-based and space missions. To specify the conditions favorable for the origin, development and sustainment of life as we know it in other worlds, we need to understand the nature of astrospheric, atmospheric and surface environments of exoplanets in habitable zones around G-K-M dwarfs including our young Sun. Global environment is formed by propagated disturbances from the planet-hosting stars in the form of stellar flares, coronal mass ejections, energetic particles, and winds collectively known as astrospheric space weather. Its characterization will help in understanding how an exoplanetary ecosystem interacts with its host star, as well as in the specification of the physical, chemical and biochemical conditions that can create favorable and/or detrimental conditions for planetary climate and habitability along with evolution of planetary internal dynamics over geological timescales. A key linkage of (astro) physical, chemical, and geological processes can only be understood in the framework of interdisciplinary studies with the incorporation of progress in heliophysics, astrophysics, planetary and Earth sciences. The assessment of the impacts of host stars on the climate and habitability of terrestrial (exo)planets will significantly expand the current definition of the habitable zone to the biogenic zone and provide new observational strategies for searching for signatures of life. The major goal of this paper is to describe and discuss the current status and recent progress in this interdisciplinary field and to provide a new roadmap for the future development of the emerging field of exoplanetary science and astrobiology.

astrophysics↗

Exploring Beyond Earth's Atmosphere with Human-Machine Teams

NASA's highly successful Kepler Mission has revolutionized our understanding of the Galaxy. We now know that planets, even Earth-size planets in the habitable zone, are common. With the end of the Kepler Mission we now look to the future with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) which will discover thousands of exoplanets in orbit around the brightest stars in the sky. In a two-year survey, TESS will perform an all-sky search of more than 200,000 stars for temporary drops in brightness caused by planetary transits. With Kepler and TESS, humanity is finally at the verge of studying the masses, sizes, densities, orbits, and atmospheres of a large cohort of small planets, including a sample of rocky worlds in the habitable zones of their host stars which may prove to host life. The massive data sets generated by Kepler and TESS must be meticulously combed for the weakest planetary signals every month. While a daunting and error-prone task for humans, this is an exciting opportunity for the breakthroughs recently seen in machine learning. Specifically, traditional methods for identifying planet transits require extensive data processing pipelines followed by extensive human vetting. This manual process risks loss of information due to the data processing and to inconsistency and biases due to individual human vetters. The latest advancements in machine learning will allow an objective classifier to minimize the losses of information and greatly lessen the burden on the human vetters, in addition to providing assessment of quality and score to each planet candidate, freeing the humans to concentrate on border cases and other more interesting investigations.

Smith, Jeffrey C.↗

Technology needs to discover Earth 2.0

Dr. Nick Siegler of the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) began his talk by stating that the main goal of the Exoplanet Exploration Program technology effort is to enable future space missions to observe a planetary spectrum of a rocky planet in the habitable zone of its star and understand it in the context of potential life. He went on to say that the main exoplanet discovery tools, the radial velocity and transit techniques, which have discovered more than 95% of the more than 3,400 exoplanets, will not be the techniques to directly image exoplanets, which is needed to get a reflected light spectrum. Spectroscopy will be hard though because there simply aren’t many photons available to use, but it will not be the biggest problem. The biggest problem will be suppressing the light from the stars which can be 10 billion times brighter than a rocky planet in the habitable zone of a Sun analog. Starlight suppression could be done in one of three ways: internal occulters (i.e., coronagraphs), external occulters (i.e., starshades), and nulling interferometers. The latter option is the least technologically mature of the options and one that NASA is not currently pursuing.

Schmitt, Joseph↗

Prospects for the Detection of Earths Orbiting Other Stars

Extrasolar planets have been detected by timing the radio signals from millisecond pulsars, from Doppler velocity changes in the spectra of main sequence stars, and most recently by the white-light transit of HD209458. Detection of Earth-sized planets in and near the habitable zone of main-sequence stars appears to be extremely difficult, if not impossible, from ground-based observatories because of noise introduced by scintillation and transparency changes in the Earth's atmosphere. To overcome these difficulties, several spaceborne photometric missions have been proposed. The COROT mission is a CNES/ESA mission with a 30 cm aperture telescope that will monitor each of several star fields for five months to find short period planets. The Kepler project is a USA effort designed to monitor 100,000 solar-like stars in a single field of view for a period of four years. The long duration enables the reliable detection of planets with orbital periods from a few days to as long as two years. Thus it should be able to determine the frequency of planets in and near the habitable zone and associate them with stellar spectral types. Canadian and Scandinavian missions are also being developed. This paper compares these missions and discusses their expected contribution to our understanding of the frequency of terrestrial-sized planets around other stars.

Bourcki, William J.↗

Kepler Mission Development Challenges and Early Results

Kepler is NASA`s first mission capable of detecting Earth-size planets orbiting in the habitable zone of stars other than the sun. Kepler comprises a space telescope designed to continuously monitor the brightnesses of more than 100,000 target stars, and a ground segment to analyze the measured stellar light curves and detect the signatures of orbiting planets. In order to detect Earth-size planets orbiting Sun-like stars Kepler was designed to provide unprecedented photometric sensitivity and stability. This paper addresses some of the technical challenges encountered during the development of the Kepler mission and the measures taken to overcome them. Early scientific results are summarized.

habitable zones↗