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Accuracy of hourly energy predictions for demand flexibility applications

Decarbonization goals in the United States electricity sector are increasing the levels of renewable energy generation in the electricity supply system, and are driving increased attention to building electrification, which will increase the magnitude and shift the timing of the electricity system peak. These changes are motivating new approaches to coordinate building electricity demand with low-carbon renewable generation, elevating the importance of demand flexibility (DF) in buildings and the need to quantify the temporal impacts of DF. In this paper, we first characterize the hourly predictive accuracy of six commonly used baseline models in an application context of quantifying building-level load shift. Our analysis revealed insights such as hours of the day (afternoons), periods of the week (weekends), and seasons (summer) that were predicted with more accuracy than other time periods. In addition, the analysis showed tendencies toward overprediction or underprediction of load. Secondly, we provide the first published investigation of baseline erosion from repeated dispatch of building load shifting. We observed that as the baseline period is pushed back further from the prediction day, the distribution of errors across baseline model predictions increases, with notable inflection points near the three-week erosion point for two of the three models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Financial Analysis of the High Flow Experiment conducted at the Glen Canyon Dam during Water Year 2023

The Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) is a Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) power resource that is a component of the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). The 2016 record of decision (ROD) for the GCD long-term experimental and management plan (LTEMP) final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) specified criteria for GCD monthly water releases, daily and hourly operating limits, and experimental releases. This report examines the financial implications of the high flow experiment (HFE) conducted at GCD during the spring of Water Year (WY) 2023 as required by the LTEMP HFE Protocol. This report is part of a series of reports that describe the financial costs of LTEMP experimental releases since the 2016 ROD was adopted in January 2017. Previous reports analyzed the impact of several past HFEs and Bug Flow Experiments. This report focuses on the HFE conducted in April 2023. For this experimental release, financial costs of approximately $1.33 million were incurred because the HFE required sustained water releases exceeding the power plant’s maximum turbine flow rate. In addition, during the experiment, operators were not allowed to shape GCD power production, either to follow Firm Electric Service (FES) customer day-ahead energy deliveries or to respond to market prices. This study identifies the main factors contributing to the HFE costs and examines the interdependencies among these factors. It applies an integrated set of tools to estimate Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) financial impacts by simulating GCD under two types of cases; namely, (1) a “With Experiment” case that mimics the operations that actually occurred and (2) a “Without Experiment” case that simulates operations under the assumption that the HFE did not occur. The “With Experiment” case mimics operations during the HFE and the entire month the HFE occurred. It complies with LTEMP hourly and daily operating criteria. The “Without Experiment” case assumes that the HFE did not occur. The monthly water release volume is assumed to be identical under both cases. The Colorado River Storage Project Python-based model (CRiSPPy) model was the main modeling tool used to simulate the dispatch of the GCD hydropower plant and associated water releases from Lake Powell. In the modeling process, the research team used extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP power plant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and WAPA’s power purchases and sales prices. In addition to estimating the financial impact of the HFE, the team used the CRiSPPy model to gain insights into the interplay among ROD operating criteria, exceptions made to criteria to accommodate the HFE, and WAPA operating practices.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Analysis of San Francisco Bar Pilot Dispatch Records: Preliminary Report

Maritime pilots licensed by the San Francisco Board of Pilot Commissioners perform safety-critical tasks in a demanding environment, working in all weather and at all times of day and night. Since 1850, San Francisco maritime pilots have been known as Bar Pilots because their duties include guiding ships safely across the large sand bar that lies west of the Golden Gate. Schedules and Work Hours Records for San Francisco Bay Bar Pilots were analyzed to determine the minimum and maximum work periods, the frequency of extended work hours, the frequency of night work and the rotation of work hours. A mathematical model is being applied to predict fatigue in order to identify schedules that may have a high likelihood of fatigue. This presentation provides a progress report on the research thus far.

marine pilots↗

NASA Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) Aircraft Technology for Public Services – A White Paper

History has shown that our personal life is highly dependent on the technology that people have developed. A strategic scan of the aerospace environment at the beginning of the 21st century strongly suggests that the world might be approaching a new age of airpower—the era of electrified/hybrid aircraft propulsion. Undeniably, starting from the Montgolfier Brothers balloon flight in 1783, to the Wright Brothers piston engine flight in 1903, and the jet engine of the 1960s, or the space age of today, one can say that leaps in propulsion technology have marked the different ages of human flight. The technological advancements, brought at the beginning of 21st century by the revolution in data exchange, computational power, sensors, wireless communication, internet, and autonomy, contributed to the vision of this new age of propulsion we are approaching. Historically, conventional vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft have been equipped with propulsion units relying on complex internal combustion machines (turbines, piston engines, for example), and complex mechanical arrangements (gearboxes, shafts, variable pitch propeller). By contrast, electric VTOL aircraft (eVTOL)1 rely on simpler propulsion units (electric motors and in some cases fixed-pitch propellers). This promotes redundancy and improves tolerance to failures, in turn improving safety. The use of simpler electric propulsion units should also allow significant acquisition and operating cost reductions. Whether full-electric (relying solely on batteries) or hybrid-electric (relying on a combination of batteries, fuel-powered engines, and generators.), eVTOLs are also expected to generate less noise and air pollution than conventional aircraft with similar payloads. According to the 2019 Annual Review of IATA (International Air Transport Association) [ref.1], due to an expected increase in air transport traffic by 5% every year and a doubling of air transport passenger numbers to 8.2 billion by 2037 significant challenges are posed to the aviation industry. Furthermore, this report does not factor in the expected demand for short-range (intra-city) air transportation, which is in development and yet to be operational. The increased demand to fly creates a responsibility to expand in a sustainable manner and an endeavor to develop more environmentally-friendly aircraft. eVTOL aircraft, either piloted or autonomous, is gathering considerable interest worldwide. Modern and novel full-electric or hybrid-electric eVTOL configurations enable a new paradigm shift in air transportation as the aviation industry remains committed to its goals of carbon-neutral growth from 2020 onwards and cutting CO2 emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050. While electric power has been used for decades, recent developments in mobile electric/hybrid propulsion coupled with advanced materials and autonomous systems may create the possibility to transition into the next age of air mobility propelled by electric/hybrid VTOL aircraft technology. Although eVTOL aircraft might seem like an incremental improvement or even a counterintuitive regression with regard to past VTOL development, it has in fact the potential to transform air mobility across a wide range of government applications. Previous transformations in aviation generated dramatic leaps in performance, but the cost was commensurate with performance, limiting quantity produced. This next age appears to take a different approach. Performance may not increase, but at this moment technology is poised for future urban mobility that will spawn commercial passenger drone services, that is, autonomous (pilotless) air taxis and thereby add a new dimension to the urban transportation mix of the future [ref. 2]. Advances in electric propulsion, autonomous flight technology, and 5G communication networks will enable this fast new-growing market to become a reality. It is now time to envision the introduction of electric/hybrid eVTOL aircraft for Public Services2. We believe that in the next decades eVTOL aircraft will have the potential to become an essential tool to Public Service agencies around the world in applications such as firefighting, public safety, search and rescue, disaster relief and law enforcement. This is due to several major factors. • First, with the increasing popularity of small, unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) or drones, many companies today are focusing on the development of passenger UAVs designed to accommodate up to five passengers or equivalent cargo payload. Many such configurations are electric or hybrid-electric designs with VTOL capabilities. Several of these projects have started a flight test program and many more are expected to be in the experimental and development phase in 2020. Such revolutionary vehicles could be in commercial operations by 2030. These eVTOL systems could be ready for selected Public Services missions even sooner. • Second, although these advanced eVTOL vehicles under development still need access to fuel (hybrid) and/or electric charging capability, they can take off and land from almost anywhere. Therefore, such vehicles, both manned and unmanned can be successfully integrated for the critical missions of the Public Services with extra deployment flexibilities. • Third, advancement in electric propulsion systems in the automotive industry together with NASA’s leading efforts in electrification of aircraft propulsion systems, FAA’s ongoing active eVTOL certification programs, and EASA’s proposed framework for the certification of electric/hybrid small category VTOL aircraft in Europe [ref. 3] will help accelerate industry electric propulsion system development and integration. • Finally, eVTOL vehicles could be deployed for Public Services sooner than air taxi or other commercial applications, since Public Services missions may be more easily approved based on specific mission criteria, localized airworthiness authority for public-use aircraft3, and are normally operating under centralized airspace management and control by the theater command. Moreover, public perception and acceptance are generally less of a concern when operations save lives and benefit the wider community. The prioritized introduction of eVTOL aircraft in Public Services is ambitious, but we believe it is achievable in the coming decades if fundamental enablers (people and technologies) are engaged in defining the objectives and needs of these missions. The revolution that is currently taking place in eVTOL aircraft represents an unprecedented opportunity to develop a safer, more affordable, more available and more environmentally friendly future of vertical flight. To ensure that these novel aircraft meet the future expectations of Public Services, it is essential to take a collaborative and multi-disciplinary approach to their development, across engineering disciplines, policy-making, program management, business case development, manufacturing, and flight demonstrations. It should be noted that the term eVTOL (in the near term) used throughout this publication implies aircraft capable of transporting up to 5 persons which may or may not include a pilot if operated fully autonomously, assuming an average of 200 pounds (91 kg) per person or equivalent payload and a range up to 60 miles plus a suitable reserve. Hybrid or hydrogen powered eVTOLs would have greater range. For example, a “3-seat” eVTOL aircraft may only be able to carry two fully equipped firemen, and payload capacity is more relevant when used for the supply mission. Moreover, this paper concentrates on the “last-mile” solutions with a deployment time of no more than 6 hours. Although not specifically discussed in this document, it is understood that the future of Transformative Vertical Flight in general and Public Services, in particular, will also involve smaller UAVs that will undoubtedly play a crucial role in future aerial operations. For example, smaller unmanned aircraft may be used to dispatch medical supplies, portable filtration systems or perform the Search task of future Search and Rescue (SAR) operations. Close collaboration between the aircraft industry, the Civil Aviation Authorities (CAA), e.g., Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), Transport Canada Civil Aviation (TCCA) and the Department of Defense (DoD) certifiers, will help identify Public Services requirements, define expectations and limit development cost and timescales. Take the US Air Force Agility Prime as an example, the majority of the eVTOL application opportunities and mission elements identified are in line with the NASA TVF WG-4 objectives and use cases. Together, it forms a strong partnership to accelerate the development, certification, and practical deployment for public service missions. The US Air Force Agility Prime has been a collaboration partner on this white paper, and provided valuable input and recommendations. Most of the eVTOL public service mission elements discussed in this paper and additional use cases envisioned by the NASA TVF WG-4 team are shared by the Agility Prime program. The focus and efforts of the Agility Prime in product and system development, industry and government partnership, accelerated certifications as well as early test and deployment are totally in sync with the path forward recommended by this white paper. This kind of collaboration and partnership will help enable the practical use of the eVTOL for public service missions, benefit the eVTOL public acceptance, and accelerate the eVTOL industry revolution.

Johnny T. Doo↗

Predicting Ground Delay Program at an Airport Based on Meteorological Conditions

In this paper, we present two supervised-learning models, logistic regression and decision tree, to predict occurrence of ground delay program at an airport based on meteorological conditions and scheduled traffic demand. Such predictive capabilities can help the Federal Aviation Administration traffic managers and airline dispatchers to prepare mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of adverse weather. The models are applied to predict ground delay program occurrence at two major U.S. airports: Newark Liberty Intl. and San Francisco Intl. airports. The logistic regression model estimates the probability that a ground delay program will occur during a given hour. Decision tree, on the other hand, classifies an hour as a ground delay program or not based on the input variables. Results indicate that both models perform significantly better than a purely random prediction of ground delay program occurrence at the two airports. The logistic regression model performs better than the decision tree model. The degree to which various input variables impact the probability of ground delay program vary between the two airports. While the enroute convective weather is a dominant factor causing ground delay programs at New York airports, poor visibility and low cloud ceiling caused by marine stratus are major drivers of ground delay programs at San Francisco Intl. airport.

traffic flow management↗

Parallel derivative-free optimization for simulation-based design of behind-the-meter energy systems

In this work, the integrated design and dispatch of behind-the-meter or distributed resources (e.g. stationary battery storage and solar PV generation) is considered. A simulation-based framework is employed, generating high-fidelity results with closed-loop predictive control at a fine resolution, at the expense of high computational cost (several minutes to a few hours per design point). To address this challenge, parallel derivative-free design methods are considered. Four methods are compared, including state-of-the-art surrogate-based methods (Radial-Basis Functions and Gaussian processes) and sampling strategies, an evolutionary-based method, and a simple sequential grid refinement method. As a case study, two types of design problem with increasing complexity are considered, namely, the design of behind-the-meter resources (three design variables) and the inclusion of grid capacity (four design variables). The second yields a constrained design problem for which violations can only be determined after solving the computationally expensive simulation. For the three-dimensional case, all methods present a good performance, achieving a solution within 1% of the optimum after the first iteration, with the sequential grid refinement exhibiting the fastest convergence and achieving the best final objective value. This indicates that the parallel evaluation of multiple sampling points may be more important than the choice of method for small decision spaces. For the four-dimensional constrained case, the Genetic Algorithm presents the best tradeoff between performance and computational effort, while the rough objective function terrain generated by constraint violation penalties reduces the performance of surrogate-based methods. Contour plots with flat regions indicate flexibility in the optimal design and highlight the importance of characterizing the solution space.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

High-temperature Pumping of Silicon for Thermal Energy Grid Storage

As the cost of renewable energy falls below fossil fuels, the key barrier to widespread sustainable electricity has become availability on demand. Energy storage can enable dispatchable renewables, but only with drastic cost reductions compared to current batteries. One electricity storage concept that could enable these cost reductions stores electricity as sensible heat in an extremely hot liquid (>2000 °C) and uses multi-junction photovoltaics (MPV) as a heat engine to convert it back to electricity on demand, hours or days later. This paper follows previously reported technoeconomics and liquid containment, examining equipment that would be needed to exchange heat between resistive heaters, a molten silicon storage tank above 2000 °C, and a heat engine. Herein, we report on a pump that was designed and tested to circulate the liquid silicon between these three regions and the effect of spatial thermal cycling was simulated in models and experiments. While the pump successfully circulated silicon between 1800-2080 °C for ten hours, circulation with a temperature gradient caused it and other non-isothermal experiments to dissolve significantly due to the temperature dependent solubility of not only carbon, but also silicon carbide which otherwise protected the graphite infrastructure. Furthermore, methods to reduce dissolution and an alternative embodiment are presented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Thermal energy grid storage: Liquid containment and pumping above 2000 °C

As the cost of renewable energy falls below fossil fuels, the key barrier to widespread sustainable electricity has become availability on demand. Energy storage can enable dispatchable renewables, but only with drastic cost reductions compared to current battery technologies. One electricity storage concept that could enable these cost reductions stores electricity as sensible heat in an extremely hot liquid (>2000°C) and uses multi-junction photovoltaics (MPV) as a heat engine to convert it back to electricity on demand hours, or days, later. Furthermore, this paper reports the first containment of silicon in a multipart graphite tank above 2000°C, using material grades that are affordable for energy storage at GWh scales. Low cost molded graphite with particle sizes as large as 10 μm successfully contained metallurgical grade silicon, even with as much as twothirds iron by mass for up to 10 hours and temperatures as high as 2300°C, in tanks as large as two gallons.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

US building energy efficiency and flexibility as an electric grid resource

Buildings consume 75% of U.S. electricity; therefore, improving the efficiency and flexibility of building operations could increase the reliability and resilience of the rapidly-changing electricity system. We estimate the technical potential near- and long-term impacts of best available building efficiency and flexibility measures on annual electricity use and hourly demand across the contiguous U.S. Co-deployment of building efficiency and flexibility avoids up to 742 TWh of annual electricity use and 181 GW of daily net peak load in 2030, rising to 800 TWh and 208 GW by 2050; at least 59 GW and 69 GW of the peak reductions are dispatchable. Implementing efficiency measures alongside flexibility measures reduces the potential for off-peak load increases, underscoring limitations on load shifting in efficient buildings. Overall, however, we find a substantial building-grid resource that could reduce future fossil-fired generation needs while also reducing dependence on energy storage with increasing variable renewable energy penetration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Electric Grid Simulator For Human Factor Research

The developed code simulates real-time monitor and control for west area of IEEE 118-bus system. The 24-hour load profile for each bus is derived by scaling the system’s rated load in the PSSE sav file according to the California Independent System Operator’s Day-ahead load forecast for May 1, 2024. This simulator performs several critical functions: (1) Calculating time-series power flow every 4 seconds; (2) Updating and dispatching AGC signals every minute; (3) Conducting N-1 contingency analysis every 5 minutes. Additionally, the simulator can trip lines and subsequently update and dispatch AGC signals, running power flow analysis after each tripping event.

Huang, Jianqiao [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), ↗

Stochastic Models, Indices & Optimization Algorithms for Pricing & Hedging Reliability Risks in Modern Power Grids: Data Plan - Princeton

We collected and cleaned the synthetic grid data produced by NREL for the Texas and New York synthetic grids. We developed a high dimensional joint stochastic model for load at the zone level, and solar and wind power productions at the asset level, capturing the spatial and temporal dependencies between all the variables, and demonstrated how such a model could be fitted to historical data. We designed and implemented a simulation engine which can produce Monte Carlo scenarios for the hourly day-ahead values of load, and solar and wind power productions at the spatial and temporal resolutions of the historical data used to fit the model. Finally we developed an open-source Python package which can, from an input grid model, efficiently use forecasts and large numbers of Monte Carlo scenarios to provide unit commitment and economic dispatch for each of these scenarios. The high dimensional stochastic model and the subsequent Monte Carlo simulation engine were implemented in the package PGscen and the corresponding UC and ED optimization programs in the package Vatic.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Safeguarding the Grid: Diverse Resources for Resilience [In My View]

Reports on the vulnerability of the power grid. From wildfires, hurricanes, and floods to cyberattacks, the grid is vulnerable to natural and human-made disasters, which can cause widespread outages that last from hours to months and leave lasting economic impacts. Imagine a coastal region in the United States that has just been hit by a hurricane and lost all power. Besides the electricity infrastructure going out, communications networks, rail transportation, and gasoline pumps may also stop working after the emergency event, which often delays repair efforts to the grid. Unresponsive communications make it difficult to dispatch workers to repair the grid, and missing transportation links delay shipments of replacement equipment for the grid’s restoration.

cybersecurity↗

A Fast Flexibility-Driven Generation Portfolio Planning Method for Sustainable Power Systems

We are witnessing an acceleration in the uptake of renewable energy in power systems. Because of the associated variability and uncertainty of renewables, power systems need to have an adequate supply of flexibility to allow for suitable management of short-term operations. So far most of the work in this area has neglected how flexibility needs associated with renewables are fulfilled as part of dispatchable generation capital investments decisions. To address this challenge, we propose an approach to plan the dispatchable generation mix of a power system as needed to counteract variability and uncertainty associated with significant shares of variable renewable generation. The approach exploits the linear time-invariant feature of variable generation variability using historical phase planes of capacity (in MW) and ramp (in MW/min) to bridge the gap between long-term capacity planning and short-term intra-hour flexibility needs. This approach is much more computationally tractable than other proposals, while also being able to capture adequately short-term operational features like ramping and net load variability. Numerical tests are performed on realistic datasets to substantiate the effectiveness of the approach.

bulk power system planning↗

Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation: Integration of Underground Hydrogen Storage with Gas Turbine (Final Report)

As the nation continues to encourage, through market structures and financial incentives, the proliferation of intermittent renewable electricity, how to optimize the ever-changing electric grid and identify means to retain and improve resilience, while ensuring continued reductions in GHG emissions, will be critical. According to Bloomberg, wind & solar generated 10.5% of US electricity in 2020 and that percentage continues to grow. In support of expanding renewable energy use, and to address its intermittent nature, this project will develop the Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation platform that is dispatchable, reliable, repeatable and have the ability to produce zero or negative carbon power while interfacing with geology capable of CO2 and hydrogen storage. GTI Energy (GTIE) and team members Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries America (MHIA), Ameren Illinois, Hexagon Purus, and the Low Carbon Resources Initiative (LCRI) completed a Phase I Conceptual Study under contract DE-FE0032012 for Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation: Integration of Underground Hydrogen Storage with Gas Turbine. The Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation platform addresses the intermittent nature of the expanding use of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) generation. The low cost of the electricity (COE) generated results in greater dispatch and more operation at higher power levels (higher efficiency), fewer short intervals, and fewer start/stop cycles. The reliable, resilient system can produce zero carbon power and store hydrogen. It will demonstrate hydrogen storage in geologic formations like those used in natural gas underground storage thus enabling large scale storage of hydrogen in sedimentary strata across the United States rather than in geographically restricted salt caverns. The Phase I study confirmed the system is feasible and generates power at lower cost than other low carbon approaches. The demonstration defines the pathway for broad commercial application and will accelerate the development of larger systems suitable for centralized utility scale electricity production. The study advanced the maturity of the H 2 storage-based system with flexible power generation by completing a Pre-FEED study (Phase II). The Pre-FEED focused on the selected Energy Farm on the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) site that includes above ground and underground hydrogen storage, low-carbon hydrogen production (GTI’s Compact Hydrogen Generator, CHG) with underground CO2 sequestration, and a 40-MW class gas turbine. The Pre-FEED addressed the entire system and its interconnection to the natural gas and electric grid and mitigation of key risks, such as storage behavior, load-following, and system operation. During Phase 1 of the project, the team completed key tasks, which moved the entire demonstration project, specific components and approaches closer to commercialization. These Phase I Accomplishments include: Completing System Requirements Review; Completing System Layout and Modeling - Heat & Mass Balance and Process Flow Diagram; Completing modelling of 9 turbine performance cases; Evaluating rock strata for underground storage of hydrogen and sequestration of carbon dioxide; Completing initial modelling of underground storage of hydrogen and withdrawal with evaluation of loss and water production; Identifying roadable storage for above ground hydrogen storage; Identifying existing electrical infrastructure for receiving/delivering electricity; Identifying existing gas supply infrastructure for receiving natural gas; Document concept design/development plans in required reports. Conclusions: The 12-month Feasibility study in Phase I study was completed and confirmed the system is feasible and generates power at lower cost than other low carbon approaches and even lower cost than the reference NGCC plant without carbon capture when taking advantage of 45Q carbon credits. The study enabled the fidelity of the concept to be improved and allowed identification of the requirements for the system. Defining the individual system and component requirements was performed via the system requirements review with the whole team. These requirements were then incorporated into and iterated with our Heat & Mass Balance process model and process flow diagrams were generated to reflect the overall system. This information was then used to complete the TEA and show economic feasibility. Large scale non-salt geologic storage of hydrogen is an enabling technology for a hydrogen-fired turbine that can be retrofitted into large-scale electric generating units (EGU). Our demonstration will include 428 MWh or ~4 hours full load of hydrogen storage (above and underground). Carbon capture inherent to the CHG process can capture 90% CO 2 (with upgrades to >98%). This system provides a COE of 23% savings relative to an NGCC with a post combustion amine system. Our proposed storage system decouples carbon capture and hydrogen production from power production; therefore, we expect our proposed system’s efficiency and variable COE to be superior resulting in overall higher dispatch and reduced deep cycling. Our demonstration will be full to multi-day hydrogen storage and has the potential for longer (seasonal) duration commercially. The demonstration defines the pathway for broad commercial application and will accelerate the development of larger systems suitable for centralized utility scale electricity production.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Optimal Planning and Operation of Multi-Frequency HVac Transmission Systems

Low-frequency high-voltage alternating-current (LF-HVac) transmission scheme has been recently proposed as an alternative solution to conventional 50/60-Hz HVac and high-voltage direct-current (HVdc) schemes for bulk power transfer. This paper proposes an optimal planning and operation for loss minimization in a multi-frequency HVac transmission system. In such a system, conventional HVac and LF-HVac grids are interconnected using back-to-back (BTB) converters. The dependence of system MW losses on converter dispatch as well as the operating voltage and frequency in the LF-HVac is discussed and compared with that of HVdc transmission. Based on the results of the loss analysis, multi-objective optimization formulations for both planning and operation stages are proposed. The planning phase decides a suitable voltage level for the LF-HVac grid, while the operation phase determines the optimal operating frequency and power dispatch of BTB converters, generators, and shunt capacitors. A solution approach that effectively handles the variations of transmission line parameters with the rated voltage and operating frequency in the LF-HVac grid is proposed. The proposed solutions of the planning and operation stages are evaluated using a multi-frequency HVac system. The results show a significant loss reduction and improved voltage regulation during a 24-hour simulation.

Nguyen, Quan H.↗

Impact of Transport Electrification Demand and Charging Schedules on Electricity Markets and Nuclear Generators

As the U.S. pursues deep decarbonization targets, electric vehicles (EVs) are likely to become a major driver of demand growth and a major determinant of daily demand patterns. This study analyzes a possible future ERCOT-like electricity grid, and examines the impact of different types of EV charging schedules on grid and market outcomes. This analysis demonstrates the significant impact of EV charging patterns on capacity expansion simulations. Even without EVs, the overall daily demand profile in a market can have significant impacts on prices and grid stability in that system, especially if non-dispatchable renewable generators (e.g. wind and solar) make up a significant fraction of the generation mix. EV demand will not necessarily follow this preexisting demand profile, so its daily trends may significantly change what generation portfolio would optimally serve the system. Furthermore, the effects of EV demand can alter the profitability of different types of units, by altering the frequency of market events like extreme-demand hours or zero-price hours. These effects are explored in this study. The EV demand levels were derived from MARKAL simulations of the West-South-Central North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) region for the year 2050, using a carbon tax of $100/ton. The baseline MARKAL simulation forecasted that 23% of the region’s annual electricity demand in 2050 would be attributable to EVs, and broke out demand projections for EV and non-EV end-use in that year. To model lower EV penetration into the system, an additional case was explored which assumed that EVs only achieved 75% of the demand level projected by MARKAL.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends

The reliability of power grids in the future will depend on how system planners account for the integration of new technologies, extreme weather events, and uncertainties in demand growth from increased electrification and data centers. This study introduces an open-source, multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that projects grid stress and reliability trends between 2020 and 2055 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. The framework integrates global to national energy-water-land dynamics with power plant siting and hourly grid operations modeling. We analyze future wholesale electricity price shocks and unserved energy events across eight scenarios spanning a range of population growth and economic change, generation mixes, and weather conditions. Our results show future grids with high percentage of non-renewable generation and strong economic growth are characterized by higher reliability and lower wholesale electricity prices than lower growth scenarios because of larger reliance on dispatchable generators and lower fossil fuel extraction costs. Scenarios with high percentage of renewable resources have lower median but more volatile wholesale electricity prices as well as more frequent and severe unserved energy events compared to scenarios relying more on dispatchable generators. These events occur because higher proportion of solar and wind energy causes net demand curves to deepen during midday (duck curves get progressively severe), exacerbating the challenge of meeting demand during summer evening peaks. This study suggests that robust and co-optimized transmission and energy storage planning could help maintain low wholesale electricity prices and high reliability levels in future electricity grids across uncertainties in generation mixes.

Electric grid reliability↗

Operating Strategies for Dispatchable PEM Electrolyzers that Enable Low-Cost Hydrogen Production

Hydrogen is a pathway to enabling decarbonization across multiple economic sectors that cannot be directly decarbonized with electricity including heat for industrial operations, medium- and heavy-duty transportation applications, long-duration energy storage, and as a feedstock for chemical synthesis. Producing hydrogen at low costs and carbon footprint is likely essential to economically decarbonize these otherwise "hard to decarbonize" sectors. Low-temperature polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolysis produces hydrogen from water and electricity and is a rapidly developing pathway towards making hydrogen at the scales required for decarbonization applications. The levelized cost of electrolytic hydrogen is dependent on the capital cost, efficiency, and durability of the electrolyzer system as well as the price of electricity supplied to the electrolyzer and the annual utilization of the electrolyzer (capacity factor). Electricity price and capacity factor depend on the source of energy that the system uses and impact other economic factors. Electricity price and capacity factor and the connections between other aspects of hydrogen production via PEM electrolyzers are the focus of this work. PEM electrolyzers have conventionally been operated at high capacity factors using electricity purchased from utilities with a constant price throughout the year. To achieve lower effective electricity prices, recent work has investigated opportunities for electrolyzers to purchase electricity in wholesale markets, where the cost of electricity varies hourly. This option can lead to lower electricity costs when the electrolyzer is a controllable load that ramps up and down rapidly and turns on and off frequently. This configuration and operating strategy capitalizes on times of low wholesale electricity prices and results in lower hydrogen levelized costs than constant operation due to reduced electricity costs even though the reduced capacity factor increases the cost of recovering the capital investment. Cycling on and off frequently also has implications for electrolyzer durability. An electrolyzer configuration where it is directly connected to renewable generation such as wind or solar, only running when the generator is producing energy, has similar implications on operating strategy, hydrogen levelized cost, capacity factor, and durability. This work provides insight into the relationships between dispatchable electrolyzer operating strategies and the cost of producing hydrogen from these systems, outlining strategies and opportunities to minimize production costs while minimizing operations that are likely to negatively impact system durability and efficiency. We find strategies that minimize electrolyzer cycling and the resulting durability impacts while increasing the hydrogen levelized cost only slightly above the minimum. We also find opportunities for batteries to minimize the number of cycles in systems directly connected to renewable generation. These findings outline key opportunities for future electrolyzer deployments and the synergistic benefits between electrolyzers and increased deployment of renewable energy generation like wind and solar. They also inform research and development that is reducing electrolyzer capital cost while managing durability impacts.

electricity markets↗