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At least 109 records · Page 6

4pPA1 - Turbulence Effects on Shaped Booms: Central Composite Design of Modeled Atmospheric Turbulence Parameters for Sonic Boom Propagation

Propagation of sonic booms through turbulence reduces mean sonic boom perception metric levels and also causes considerable variability. NASA’s PCBoom suite of sonic boom acoustic propagation modules includes an approximate method for accounting for the effects of turbulence on traditional N-wave sonic booms. The current implementation is ineffective for shaped sonic booms or low-booms, and it also has limited values for turbulence and ambient input parameters. NASA’s future X-59 low-boom community noise surveys require an accurate estimate of the effects of turbulence in regions across the USA, so the module must be improved. This work presents the methods of selecting which ambient and turbulence parameters should be included in an improved PCBoom turbulence module. Turbulence and ambient data were collected from two atmospheric model databases, the Climate Forecast System Version 2 and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5), hourly from 7 AM to 7 PM local time for 10 years at 19 locations across the USA. A fully-factorial propagation analysis using these parameters would be exceedingly computationally expensive. Instead, a central composite design was chosen resulting in 45 combinations of ambient and turbulence parameters. These 45 cases effectively sample the space balancing computational burden.

turbulence↗

Elliptical storm cell modeling of digital radar data

A model for spatial distributions of reflectivity in storm cells was fitted to digital radar data. The data were taken with a modified WSR-57 weather radar with 2.6-km resolution. The data consisted of modified B-scan records on magnetic tape of storm cells tracked at 0 deg elevation for several hours. The MIT L-band radar with 0.8-km resolution produced cross-section data on several cells at 1/2 deg elevation intervals. The model developed uses ellipses for contours of constant effective-reflectivity factor Z with constant orientation and eccentricity within a horizontal cell cross section at a given time and elevation. The centers of the ellipses are assumed to be uniformly spaced on a straight line, with areas linearly related to log Z. All cross sections are similar at different heights (except for cell tops, bottoms, and splitting cells), especially for the highest reflectivities; wind shear causes some translation and rotation between levels. Goodness-of-fit measures and parameters of interest for 204 ellipses are considered.

Altman, F. J.↗

Evaluation of Refractivity Profiles from CHAMP and SAC-C GPS Radio Occultation

The GeoForschungsZentrum's Challenging Minisatellite Payload for Geophysical Research and Application (CHAMP, Germany-US) and the Comision Nacional de Actividades Especiales' Satelite de Aplicaciones Cientificas-C (SAC-C, Argentina-US) missions are the first missions to carry a second-generation Blackjack Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver. One of the new features of this receiver is its ability to sense the lower troposphere closer to the surface than the proof-of-concept GPS Meteorology experiment (GPS/MET). Since their launch, CHAMP and SAC-C have collected thousands of GPS radio occultations, representing a wealth of measurements available for data assimilation and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). In order to evaluate the refractivity data derived by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) from raw radio occultation measurements, we use Data Assimilation Office (DAO) 6-hour forecasts as an independent state of the atmosphere. We compare CHAMP and SAC-C refractivity (processed by JPL) with refractivity calculated from the DAO global fields of temperature, water vapor content and humidity. We show statistics of the differences as well as histograms of the differences.

Poli, Paul↗

Aviation Weather Program (AWP)

The Aviation Weather Program (AWP) combines additional weather observations, improved forecast technology, and more efficient distribution of information to pilots, controllers, and automated systems to improve the weather information provided to the air traffic control system, pilots, and other users of aviation weather information. Specific objectives include the needs to: improve airport and en-route capacity by accurate, high resolution, timely forecasts of changing weather conditions affecting airport and en-route operations; improve analyses and forecasts of upper-level winds for efficient flight planning and traffic management; and increase flight safety through improved aviation weather hazard forecasting (e.g. icing, turbulence, severe storms, microbursts, or strong winds). The AWP would benefit from participation in a cooperative multiscale experiment by obtaining data for: evaluation of aviation weather forecast products, analysis of four dimensional data assimilation schemes, and experimental techniques for retrieving aerosol and other visibility parameters. A multiscale experiment would also be helpful to AWP by making it possible to evaluate the added benefit of enhanced data sets collected during the experiment on those forecast and analysis products. The goals of the Coperative Multiscale Experiment (CME) are an essential step in attaining the long-term AWP objective of providing two-to-four hour location-specific forecasts of significant weather. Although the possibility of a funding role for the AWP in the CME is presently unclear, modest involvement of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)/AWP personnel could be expected.

Foote, Brant↗

Use of the LANDSAT-2 Data Collection System in the Colorado River Basin Weather Modification Program

The author has identified the following significant results. The operation of the LANDSAT data collection system on the Colorado River Basin pilot project during the 1974-75 winter season demonstrated that it is a practical means to obtain accurate data in near real-time to aid in forecasting and control of weather modification operations. Tests of the two prototype wind averaging systems have shown that wind data can be averaged and stored on-site for a period of eight hours prior to transmission through the LANDSAT DCS. These averaged wind data will be much more useful in operational programs than instantaneous values.

Kahan, A. M.↗

The useful potential of using existing data to uniquely identify predictable wind events and regimes, part 1

Correlations between standard meteorological data and wind power generation potential were developed. Combined with appropriate wind forecasts, these correlations can be useful to load dispatchers to supplement conventional energy sources. Hourly wind data were analyzed for four sites, each exhibiting a unique physiography. These sites are Amarillo, Texas; Ludington, Michigan; Montauk Point, New York; and San Gorgonio, California. Synoptic weather maps and tables are presented to illustrate various wind 'regimes' at these sites.

Trettel, D. W.↗

The analysis of rapidly developing fog at the Kennedy Space Center

This report documents fog precursors and fog climatology at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Florida from 1986 to 1990. The major emphasis of this report focuses on rapidly developing fog events that would affect the less than 7-statute mile visibility rule for End-Of-Mission (EOM) Shuttle landing at KSC (Rule 4-64(A)). The Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU's) work is to: develop a data base for study of fog associated weather conditions relating to violations of this landing constraint; develop forecast techniques or rules-of-thumb to determine whether or not current conditions are likely to result in an acceptable condition at landing; validate the forecast techniques; and transition techniques to operational use. As part of the analysis the fog events were categorized as either advection, pre-frontal or radiation. As a result of these analyses, the AMU developed a fog climatological data base, identified fog precursors and developed forecaster tools and decision trees. The fog climatological analysis indicates that during the fog season (October to April) there is a higher risk for a visibility violation at KSC during the early morning hours (0700 to 1200 UTC), while 95 percent of all fog events have dissipated by 1600 UTC. A high number of fog events are characterized by a westerly component to the surface wind at KSC (92 percent) and 83 percent of the fog events had fog develop west of KSC first (up to 2 hours). The AMU developed fog decision trees and forecaster tools that would help the forecaster identify fog precursors up to 12 hours in advance. Using the decision trees as process tools ensures the important meteorological data are not overlooked in the forecast process. With these tools and a better understanding of fog formation in the local KSC area, the Shuttle weather support forecaster should be able to give the Launch and Flight Directors a better KSC fog forecast with more confidence.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗

Sea State and Weather Capability for NASA's Constellation Program

Marine weather and related parameters such as wind, ocean wave height and period, air temperature, sea surface temperature, visibility, and potential for icing are critical to the design, operation, and safety of crewed space vehicles. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Constellation Program requires detailed assessment of marine weather related parameters that may be encountered during launch, abort, landing, and crew rescue operations for the crewed Axes/Orion space vehicles. This information is required for both space vehicle design and operational purposes. The space vehicles must be designed such that they cam withstand the environment they are likely to encounter. The crewed Axes/Orion space vehicles will launch from NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida for both International Space Station (ISS) missions with 51.6deg inclination orbits and lunar missions with approximately 280 inclination orbits. Since both missions will fly ever the Atlantic Ocean on ascent to orbit and will fly over the Pacific Ocean on descent from orbit, an unlikely but possible emergency abort could require parachuting the Orion capsule and crew into the ocean. This situation could potentially put the crew in an isolated and hazardous environment for severn hours while they await rescue. Therefore, abort, landing, and crew rescue elements of the Constellation Program must address weather related parameters on a global scale. This paper describes buoy measurement data, sea surface temperature satellite data, and sea state computer model data that are being utilized by the Constellation Program to address these design and operational issues.

Barbre, R. E.↗

Sea State and Weather Assessment Capability for NASA's Constellation Program

Marine weather and related parameters such as wind, ocean wave height and period, air temperature, sea surface temperature, visibility, and potential for icing are critical to the design, operation, and safety of crewed space vehicles. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Constellation Program requires detailed assessment of marine weather related parameters that may be encountered during launch, abort, landing, and crew rescue operations for the crewed Ares/Orion space vehicles. This information is required for both space vehicle design and operational purposes. The space vehicles must be designed such that they can withstand the environment they are likely to encounter. The crewed Ares/Orion space vehicles will launch from NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida for both International Space Station (ISS) missions with 51.6 o inclination orbits and lunar missions with approximately 28 inclination orbits. Since both missions will fly over the Atlantic Ocean on ascent to orbit and will fly over the Pacific Ocean on descent from orbit, an unlikely but possible emergency abort could require parachuting the Orion capsule and crew into the ocean. This situation could potentially put the crew in an isolated and hazardous environment for several hours while they await rescue. Therefore, abort, landing, and crew rescue elements of the Constellation Program must address weather related parameters on a global scale. This paper describes buoy measurement data, sea surface temperature satellite data, and sea state computer model data that are being utilized by the Constellation Program to address these design and operational issues.

Barbre, B. J.↗

Seasonal and Dayurnal Planetary Albedo Variability from Six Years of DSCOVR EPIC Data

Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) measurements of Earth’s reflected solar radiation from the Lissajous orbital position near the Lagrangian L1 point provide continuous monitoring of the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere. CERES-based angle models were used to convert the near-hourly reflected radiances of the EPIC images into a climate-style planetary albedo data-point over the sunlit hemisphere. Integration over the sunlit hemispheres averages out the meteorological weather noise, but retains the seasonal and planetary-scale variability. As the Earth rotates, this generates variations in the Earth’s planetary albedo that are precisely aligned in longitude, which constitutes the dayurnal cycle. This dayurnal variability in the planetary albedo arises from planetary-scale changes in cloud radiative properties that can be directly compared to similarly sampled climate GCM output data. Six years of EPIC data have been analyzed, showing characteristic patterns in the seasonal and dayurnal variability of the Earth’s planetary albedo. Much of the seasonal change in planetary albedo is associated with the changing DSCOVR viewing geometry and the change in solar declination. But throughout the year, the highest planetary albedos are observed over the Central Asia (Iraq) longitude, while the lowest planetary albedos occur over the Central Pacific longitude. For these longitudes, the relative seasonal changes in the planetary albedo are slowly varying and anti-correlated. Dayurnal amplitude maxima tend to occur during the July-September timeframe, with April-May and December exhibit distinct minima in the dayurnal amplitude. West Africa and the West Pacific longitudes likewise exhibit anti-correlated seasonal variability, while they also undergo anti-correlated short period oscillations. On the other hand, in nearby longitudes, there are short period spikes in planetary albedo of a few-days duration, as well as longer period oscillations that may range from a week to several months, that generally tend to be correlated.

Planetary Albedo↗

Assimilation of GPM-retrieved Ocean Surface Meteorology Data for Two Snowstorm Events during ICE-POP 2018

As a component of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Weather Focus Area and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ground Validation participation in the International Collaborative Experiments for PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games (ICE-POP 2018) field research and forecast demonstration programs, hourly ocean surface meteorology properties were retrieved from the GPM microwave observations for January – March 2018. In this study, the retrieved ocean surface meteorological products – 2-m temperature, 2-m specific humidity, and 10-m wind speed were assimilated into a regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) framework to explore the application of these observations for two heavy snowfall events during the ICE-POP 2018: 27-28 February, and 7-8 March 2018. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) were used to conduct high resolution simulations and data assimilation experiments. The results indicate that the data assimilation has a large influence on surface thermodynamic and wind fields in the model initial condition for both events. With cycled data assimilation, significantly positive influence of the retrieved surface observation was found for the March case with improved quantitative precipitation forecast and reduced error in temperature forecast. A slightly smaller yet positive impact was also found in the forecast of the February case.

assimilation↗

Regional Precipitation Forecast with Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profile Assimilation

Advanced technology in hyperspectral sensors such as the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS; Aumann et al. 2003) on NASA's polar orbiting Aqua satellite retrieve higher vertical resolution thermodynamic profiles than their predecessors due to increased spectral resolution. Although these capabilities do not replace the robust vertical resolution provided by radiosondes, they can serve as a complement to radiosondes in both space and time. These retrieved soundings can have a significant impact on weather forecasts if properly assimilated into prediction models. Several recent studies have evaluated the performance of specific operational weather forecast models when AIRS data are included in the assimilation process. LeMarshall et al. (2006) concluded that AIRS radiances significantly improved 500 hPa anomaly correlations in medium-range forecasts of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. McCarty et al. (2009) demonstrated similar forecast improvement in 0-48 hour forecasts in an offline version of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model when AIRS radiances were assimilated at the regional scale. Reale et al. (2008) showed improvements to Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa height anomaly correlations in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) global system with the inclusion of partly cloudy AIRS temperature profiles. Singh et al. (2008) assimilated AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional modeling system for a study of a heavy rainfall event during the summer monsoon season in Mumbai, India. This paper describes an approach to assimilate AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation system (WRF-Var; Barker et al. 2004). Section 2 describes the AIRS instrument and how the quality indicators are used to intelligently select the highest-quality data for assimilation. Section 3 presents an overall precipitation improvement with AIRS assimilation during a 37-day case study period, and Section 4 focuses on a single case study to further investigate the meteorological impact of AIRS profiles on synoptic scale models. Finally, Section 5 provides a summary of the paper.

Chou, S.-H.↗

The rotation period of Neptune's upper atmosphere

The variations in the near-infrared brightness of Neptune observed during July and August 1980 show a well-defined, large-amplitude variation in Neptune's J-K color, with a period of 17.73 + or - 0.1 hour. These results are interpreted as diurnal variations resulting from the 17.73-hour rotation period of the Neptune upper atmosphere in the presence of inhomogeneous weather, and are found to qualitatively corroborate those of Cruikshank (1978). It is also noted that Smith and Slavsky (1980) report a 17.7-hour component as a secondary periodicity in their data. Variations were observed in the 5-0-micron spectral region which are in phase with the variations seen at shorter wavelengths.

Brown, R. H.↗

Determining the Probability of Violating Upper-Level Wind Constraints for the Launch of Minuteman Ill Ballistic Missiles At Vandenberg Air Force Base

The 30th Operational Support Squadron Weather Flight (30 OSSWF) provides comprehensive weather services to the space program at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California. One of their responsibilities is to monitor upper-level winds to ensure safe launch operations of the Minuteman Ill ballistic missile. The 30 OSSWF requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) analyze VAFB sounding data to determine the probability of violating (PoV) upper-level thresholds for wind speed and shear constraints specific to this launch vehicle, and to develop a graphical user interface (GUI) that will calculate the PoV of each constraint on the day of launch. The AMU suggested also including forecast sounding data from the Rapid Refresh (RAP) model. This would provide further insight for the launch weather officers (LWOs) when determining if a wind constraint violation will occur over the next few hours, and help to improve the overall upper winds forecast on launch day.

Shafer, Jaclyn A.↗

Spectral Analysis of Forecast Error Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

The spectra of analysis and forecast error are examined using the observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASAGMAO). A global numerical weather prediction model, the Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation, is cycled for two months with once-daily forecasts to 336 hours to generate a control case. Verification of forecast errors using the Nature Run as truth is compared with verification of forecast errors using self-analysis; significant underestimation of forecast errors is seen using self-analysis verification for up to 48 hours. Likewise, self analysis verification significantly overestimates the error growth rates of the early forecast, as well as mischaracterizing the spatial scales at which the strongest growth occurs. The Nature Run-verified error variances exhibit a complicated progression of growth, particularly for low wave number errors. In a second experiment, cycling of the model and data assimilation over the same period is repeated, but using synthetic observations with different explicitly added observation errors having the same error variances as the control experiment, thus creating a different realization of the control. The forecast errors of the two experiments become more correlated during the early forecast period, with correlations increasing for up to 72 hours before beginning to decrease.

OSSE↗

Coupled Aerosol-Cloud Systems over Northern Vietnam during 7-SEAS BASELInE: A Radar and Modeling Perspective

The 2013 7-SEASBASELInE campaign over northern Southeast Asia (SEA) provided, for the first time ever, comprehensive ground-based W-band radar measurements of the low-level stratocumulus (Sc) systems that often exist during the spring over northern Vietnam in the presence of biomass-burning aerosols. Although spatially limited, ground-based remote sensing observations are generally free of the surface contamination and signal attenuation effects that often hinder space-borne measurements of these low-level cloud systems. Such observations permit detailed measurements of structures and lifecycles of these clouds as part of a broader effort to study potential impacts of these coupled aerosol-cloud systems on local and regional weather and air quality. Introductory analyses of the W-band radar data show these Sc systems generally follow a diurnal cycle, with peak occurrences during the nighttime and early morning hours, often accompanied by light precipitation. Preliminary results from idealized simulations of Sc development over land based on the observations reveal the familiar response of increased numbers and smaller sizes of cloud droplets, along with suppressed drizzle formation, as aerosol concentrations increase. Slight reductions in simulated W-band reflectivity values also are seen with increasing aerosol concentrations and result primarily from decreased droplet sizes. As precipitation can play a large role in removing aerosol from the atmosphere, and thereby improving air quality locally, quantifying feedbacks between aerosols and cloud systems over this region are essential, particularly given the negative impacts of biomass burning on human health in SEA. Such an endeavor should involve improved modeling capabilities along with comprehensive measurements of time-dependent aerosol and cloud profiles.

aerosol cloud interactions↗

Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Shuttle Flight Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to create a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) that indicates the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input. The tool creates a graphic depicting the potential location of thunderstorm anvils one, two, and three hours into the future. The locations are based on the average of the upper level observed or forecasted winds. The graphic includes 10 and 20 n mi standoff circles centered at the location of interest, as well as one-, two-, and three-hour arcs in the upwind direction. The arcs extend outward across a 30 sector width based on a previous AMU study that determined thunderstorm anvils move in a direction plus or minus 15 of the upper-level wind direction. The AMU was then tasked to transition the tool to the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). SMG later requested the tool be updated to provide more flexibility and quicker access to model data. This presentation describes the work performed by the AMU to transition the tool into AWIPS, as well as the subsequent improvements made to the tool.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

Integration of Airborne Aerosol Prediction Systems and Vegetation Phenology to Track Pollen for Asthma Alerts in Public Health Decision Support Systems

The residual signal indicates that the pollen event may influence the seasonal signal to an extent that would allow detection, given accurate QA filtering and BRDF corrections. MODIS daily reflectances increased during the pollen season. The DREAM model (PREAM) was successfully modified for use with pollen and may provide 24-36 hour running pollen forecasts. Publicly available pollen forecasts are linked to general weather patterns and roughly-known species phenologies. These are too coarse for timely health interventions. PREAM addresses this key data gap so that targeting intervention measures can be determined temporally and geospatially. The New Mexico Department of Health (NMDOH) as part of its Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN) would use PREAM a tool for alerting the public in advance of pollen bursts to intervene and reduce the health impact on asthma populations at risk.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗