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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Framework for the Assessment of a Sustainable Hydrogen Production and Supply Chain Network in California

The cost-effective and sustainable deployment of hydrogen supply and demand networks, especially in large economic regions like California, can be challenging considering the spatial-temporal availability and variability of the different actors across the network such as production processes, distribution modes, and end-users. In this presentation, we will provide an overview and demonstration of a modeling framework used to assess the environmental, economic, and human health impacts of plausible hydrogen production and supply chain networks in California. Scenarios focus on green hydrogen production pathways using water electrolysis and biomass gasification. End-use applications included in the model are transit, medium and heavy-duty trucking, port authorities, and power and aviation companies that currently consume natural gas, diesel, and aviation fuel for their day-to-day operation. Representative locations for hydrogen production and end-use are based on recent projections of the hydrogen economy in California. All mass and energy flows, as well as estimated emissions, are based on H2A process model designs and projections of technology performance, literature review, and LBNL process, economic and life cycle modeling, and not on company data for the sake of this presentation. Human health impacts are included following methodologies developed for the University of California Irvine HyDeal project. Life cycle phases associated with hydrogen production include feedstock preparation (water and biomass), energy production and consumption (renewable, grid, and combination of renewable and grid electricity), maintenance (chemical utilization in electrolysis and natural gas combustion in gasification), carbon sequestration, hydrogen storage (compression and liquefaction), and distribution (truck and pipeline). We apply the framework utilizing California specific emission factors, financial data, and human health damages and explore the impact of network characteristics on results. Example variations include: the inclusion of policy incentives or not, different representations of the electricity grid and source, electrolysis versus gasification versus combinations of both for production, liquefaction versus compression based on producer capacity cutoffs, transportation truck versus pipeline based on existing infrastructure, and ultimate end use. Comparison of these different scenarios can help inform future projects by demonstrating the trade-offs among environmental, economic, and human health impacts. This model, automated in R, is a starting platform upon which new analysis, modeling capabilities, locations, and emission factors can be rapidly tested and integrated.

Zaki, Mohammed Tamim↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulation-aided occupant-centric building design: A critical review of tools, methods, and applications

Occupants are active participants in their built environment, affecting its performance while simultaneously being affected by its design and indoor environmental conditions. With recent advances in computer modeling, simulation tools, and analysis techniques, topics such as human-building interactions and occupant behavior have gained significant interest in the literature given their premise of improving building design processes and operating strategies. In practice, the focus of occupant-centric literature has been mostly geared towards the latter (i.e., operation), leaving the implications on building design practices underexplored. This paper fills the gap by providing a critical review of existing studies applying computer-based modeling and simulation to guide occupant-centric building design. The reviewed papers are organized along four main themes, namely occupant-centric: (i) metrics of building performance, (ii) modeling and simulation approaches, (iii) design methods and applications, and (iv) supporting practices and mechanisms. Important barriers are identified for a more effective application of occupant-centric building design practices, including the limited consideration of metrics beyond energy efficiency (e.g., occupant well-being and space planning), the limited implementation and validation of the proposed methods, and the lack of integration of occupant behavior modeling in existing building performance simulation tools. Finally, future research directions are discussed, covering large-scale international data collection efforts to move from generic assumptions about occupant behavior to specific/localized knowledge, improved metrics of measuring building performance, and improved industry practices, such as building codes, to promote an occupant-in-the-loop approach to the building design process.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Human in vitro metabolism of an environmental mixture of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) found at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are widespread environmental contaminants that pose health risks to humans. Toxicity testing approaches of PAHs have evolved from traditional rodent models to New Approach Methodologies (NAMs), such as high-throughput screening in zebrafish, enabling rapid evaluation of chemical hazards. However, translating toxicity findings from laboratory systems to humans remains difficult due to complexity and species-specific differences. Chemical dosimetry modeling offers a quantitative framework to bridge this gap, but its accuracy depends on robust knowledge of PAH metabolism. The objective of this study was to measure human metabolism rates of Supermix-10, the ten most abundant PAHs found at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site, to support development of human pharmacokinetic models. We incubated individual PAHs from Supermix-10 in pooled human liver microsomes and quantified parent PAH disappearance using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with UV and florescent detection. To assess the potential of mixture interactions, we also measured metabolism of all 10 compounds in an equimolar mixture and compared rates of parent disappearance to those observed for individual PAHs. All Supermix-10 PAHs demonstrated rapid parent compound disappearance in human hepatic microsomes. PAHs grouped into three metabolism patterns: high metabolism rates and capacity (2-methylnaphthalene, acenaphthylene, fluorene, naphthalene), high affinity metabolism that rapidly achieves low-level saturation (benzo[a]anthracene, chrysene), and moderate metabolism rates and capacity (fluoranthene, pyrene, retene, phenanthrene). Smaller PAHs exhibited faster metabolism, and higher metabolism rates correlated inversely with molecular weight. When incubated in an equimolar mixture, Supermix-10 demonstrated significantly slower metabolism (47–89 %) compared to metabolism of individual PAHs at the same concentration. These findings enhance our understanding of PAH metabolism in humans and demonstrate significant mixture interactions under the conditions tested. Furthermore, our findings offer insights into the metabolic behavior of Supermix-10 and provide critical metabolism rate data to support the development of physiological based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. Dosimetry models can translate PAH chemical dosimetry from high-throughput testing platforms, like zebrafish and cellular system assays, to human exposures enhancing the accuracy and reliability of PAH risk assessments.

2-methylnaphthalene↗
DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in predicting protein-protein interactions of understudied viruses: Arenavirus-human interactions

Understanding protein-protein interactions (PPIs) between viruses and host organisms is crucial for uncovering infection mechanisms and identifying potential therapeutic targets. The ability to generalize PPI predictive models across understudied viruses presents a significant challenge. In this work, we use arenavirus-human PPIs to illustrate the difficulties associated with model generalization, which are compounded by a lack of both positive and negative data. We employ a Transfer Learning approach to investigate arenavirus-human PPIs by utilizing models trained on better-studied virus-human and human-human PPIs. Additionally, we curate and assess four types of negative sampling datasets to evaluate their impact on model performance. Despite the overall high accuracies (93–99 %) and AUPRC scores (0.8–0.9) appearing promising, further analysis indicates that these performance metrics can be misleading due to data leakage, data bias, and overfitting, especially concerning under-represented viral proteins. We reveal these gaps and assess the impact of data imbalance using standard k-fold cross-validation and Independent Blind Testing with a Balanced Dataset, resulting in a drop in accuracy below 50 %. We propose a viral protein-specific evaluation framework that categorizes viral proteins into majority and minority classes based on their representation in the dataset, enabling comparison of model performance across these groups using balanced accuracies. This framework offers a more robust evaluation of model generalizability, addressing biases inherent in standard evaluation techniques and paving the way for more reliable PPI prediction models for understudied viruses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

TiO 2 Nanocoatings with Controllable Crystal Type and Nanoscale Topography on Zirconia Implants to Accelerate Bone Formation

In dentistry, zirconia implants have emerged as a promising alternative for replacing missing teeth due to their superior aesthetic performance and chemical stability. To improve the osseointegration of zirconia implants, modifying their surface with hierarchical micro/nanotopography and bioactive chemical composition are two effective ways. In this work, a microscale topography was prepared on a zirconia surface using hydrofluoric acid etching, and then a 50 nm TiO 2 nanocoating was deposited via atomic layer deposition (ALD). Subsequently, an annealing treatment was used to transform the TiO 2 from amorphous to anatase and simultaneously generate nanoscale topography. Various investigations into the coating surface morphology, topography, wettability, and chemical composition were carried out using scanning electron microscopy, white light interferometry, contact‐angle measurement, X‐ray diffraction, and X‐ray photoelectron spectroscopy. In addition, in vitro cytocompatibility and osteogenic potential performance of the coatings were evaluated by human bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (hBMSCs), and in vivo osseointegration performance was assessed in a rat femoral condyle model. Moreover, the possible mechanism was also investigated. The deposition of TiO 2 film with/without annealing treatment did not alter the microscale roughness of the zirconia surface, whereas the nanotopography changed significantly after annealing. The in vitro studies revealed that the anatase TiO 2 coating with regular wavelike nanostructure could promote the adhesion and proliferation of osteoblasts and further improve the osteogenic potential in vitro and osseointegration in vivo. These positive effects may be caused by nanoscale topography via the canonical Wnt/ β ‐catenin pathway. The results suggest that using ALD in combination with annealing treatment to fabricate a nanotopographic TiO 2 coating is a promising way to improve the osteogenic properties of zirconia implants.

Li, Nan (ORCID:0000000255156737)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Update to the Performance Assessment for the Savannah River Site Saltstone Disposal Facility - 20124

In 2019, Savannah River Remediation developed a revision to the performance assessment (PA) on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Operations Office (SR) for the near-surface disposal of low-level waste at the Savannah River Site (SRS) Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF). Soluble waste from SRS Tank Farms undergoes salt processing to remove cesium and other high activity constituents. The low-activity decontaminated salt solution (DSS) is then immobilized by mixing it into a cementitious waste form known as saltstone. After mixing, the saltstone is poured into leak-tight concrete vaults, known as saltstone disposal units (SDUs), where the waste form cures. By the time of facility closure, the SDF is expected to consist of 15 SDUs with a combined capacity of 1.06 E+09 L (280 Mgal) of cured saltstone. The facility operates under a Disposal Authorization Statement (DAS) from DOE and a permit from the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC). Since the start of operations in 1990, the SDF has received almost 6.7 E+07 L (18 Mgal) of DSS, resulting in the safe disposal of 2.7 E+16 Bq (7.3 E+05 Ci) of activity. Due to the radioactive decay of short-lived contaminants, the total remaining activity in the disposed waste is estimated to be approximately 1.4 E+16 Bq (3.9 E+05 Ci), as of September 2018. The Disposal Authorization Statement requires a demonstration that the system of engineered and natural features of the disposal facility will limit releases from the facility and be protective of human health and the environment for at least the next 1,000 years. The long-term performance of the facility was evaluated under the requirements of the DoE's Radioactive Waste Management Manual (US DOE Manual 435.1-1). Simulations were performed to demonstrate that the disposal facility would meet performance objectives specified in the manual. The evaluation was based on numerical models that simulate the releases of contaminants from the saltstone waste form. Contaminants were transported through groundwater and air pathways to points of assessment to evaluate compliance. In addition, the potential consequences of an inadvertent human intrusion (IHI) were also evaluated. In accordance with the guidance and recommendations in US DoE's technical standard for DAS, deterministic and probabilistic analyses were performed to demonstrate the SDF system, which includes the engineered cover system, the SDUs, the waste form, and the natural features of the site, provides a reasonable expectation that saltstone disposal will meet performance objectives. Post-closure doses to future members of the public (MOP) were evaluated; dose estimates from the air pathway were well below the 1.0 E-04 Sv/yr (10 mrem/yr) performance objective within 1,000 years, and the calculated doses to the MOP from all exposure pathways, including the groundwater and air pathways, were well below the 2.5 E-04 Sv/yr (25 mrem/yr) performance objective within 1,000 years. Doses following an assumed intrusion event within the facility boundaries were well below the IHI performance objectives, where the acute IHI dose was below the acute IHI dose performance objective of 5.0 E-03 Sv (500 mrem) and the chronic IHI dose was below the chronic IHI dose performance objective of 1.0 E-03 Sv/yr (100 mrem/yr) within 1,000 years. (author)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian optimal experimental design for constitutive model calibration

Computational simulation is increasingly relied upon for high/consequence engineering decisions, which necessitates a high confidence in the calibration of and predictions from complex material models. However, the calibration and validation of material models is often a discrete, multi-stage process that is decoupled from material characterization activities, which means the data collected does not always align with the data that is needed. To address this issue, an integrated workflow for delivering an enhanced characterization and calibration procedure—Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC)—is introduced and demonstrated. Further, this framework leverages Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED), which creates a line of communication between model calibration needs and data collection capabilities in order to optimize the information content gathered from the experiments for model calibration. Eventually, the ICC framework will be used in quasi real-time to actively control experiments of complex specimens for the calibration of a high-fidelity material model. This work presents the critical first piece of algorithm development and a demonstration in determining the optimal load path of a cruciform specimen with simulated data. Calibration results, obtained via Bayesian inference, from the integrated ICC approach are compared to calibrations performed by choosing the load path a priori based on human intuition, as is traditionally done. The calibration results are communicated through parameter uncertainties which are propagated to the model output space (i.e. stress–strain). In these exemplar problems, data generated within the ICC framework resulted in calibrated model parameters with reduced measures of uncertainty compared to the traditional approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exocortex Network for AI-Augmented Human-Led Scientific Expedition

AI advances in science can be viewed along two main directions with a fluid boundary: enhancing efficiency through automation and smart tools to accelerate tasks that humans can already perform; and enabling exploration into uncharted territories and potentially toward AGI. These advances manifest in the AI cognitive core through the development and explainability of foundation models; in the physical embodiment of instruments and facilities; and in the integrated agency of AI workflows exemplified by the science exocortex. To address the role of humans in this evolving landscape, in this Perspective, we suggest a third direction: the development of personalized agents that form human-centered networks, supporting both efficiency and exploration while ensuring that AI remains aligned with human vision.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Large-scale deep learning for metastasis detection in pathology reports

Objectives No existing algorithm can reliably identify metastasis from pathology reports across multiple cancer types and the entire US population. In this study, we develop a deep learning model that automatically detects patients with metastatic cancer by using pathology reports from many laboratories and of multiple cancer types. Materials and Methods We use 60 471 unstructured pathology reports from 4 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries. The reports were coded into 1 of 3 labels: metastasis negative, metastases positive, or metastasis undetermined. We utilize a task-specific deep neural network trained from scratch and compare its performance with a widely used large language model (LLM). Results Our deep learning architecture trained on task-specific data outperforms a general-purpose LLM, with a recall of 0.894 compared to 0.824. We quantified model uncertainty and used it to defer reports for human review. We found that retaining 72.9% of reports increased recall from 0.894 to 0.969. Discussion A smaller deep learning architecture trained on task-specific data outperforms a general LLM. Equally critical to model performance is the incorporation of uncertainty quantification, achieved here through an abstention mechanism. Conclusions This study’s finding demonstrate the feasibility of developing algorithms to automatically identify metastatic cancer cases from unstructured pathology reports.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) Approach to Large Eddy Simulation (LES) for Transport and Contaminant Dispersion

Recent advances in the development of large eddy simulation (LES) atmospheric models with corresponding atmospheric transport and dispersion (AT&D) modeling capabilities have made it possible to simulate short, time-averaged, single realizations of pollutant dispersion at the spatial and temporal resolution necessary for common atmospheric dispersion needs, such as designing air sampling networks, assessing pollutant sensor system performance, and characterizing the impact of airborne materials on human health. The high computational burden required to form an ensemble of single-realization dispersion solutions using an LES and coupled AT&D model has, until recently, limited its use to a few proof-of-concept studies. An example of an LES model that can meet the temporal and spatial resolution and computational requirements of these applications is the joint outdoor-indoor urban large eddy simulation (JOULES). A key enabling element within JOULES is the computationally efficient graphics processing unit (GPU)-based LES, which is on the order of 150 times faster than if the LES contaminant dispersion simulations were executed on a central processing unit (CPU) computing platform. JOULES is capable of resolving the turbulence components at a suitable scale for both open terrain and urban landscapes, e.g., owing to varying environmental conditions and a diverse building topology. In this paper, we describe the JOULES modeling system, prior efforts to validate the accuracy of its meteorological simulations, and current results from an evaluation that uses ensembles of dispersion solutions for unstable, neutral, and stable static stability conditions in an open terrain environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reinforcement Learning for Anomaly Detection in Nuclear Power Plant Operation and Maintenance

In nuclear power plants (NPPs), timely identification of sensor and human errors is critical to ensure safe and efficient plant operations. Anomaly detection models can be employed for this task. However, traditional anomaly detection approaches may have high dependency on labeled datasets and struggle with adaptability in complex, dynamic environments. Reinforcement learning (RL) has demonstrated significant potential in fault diagnosis and anomaly detection; however, its application to anomaly detection in NPPs remains a relatively underexplored research direction. Hence, to address this gap, in this study, we present a novel physics-informed reinforcement learning model, PIRL-AD: Physics-Informed Reinforcement Learning for Anomaly Detection, that integrates domain knowledge from calorimetric equations into the RL framework for enhanced sensor and human error anomaly detection. We evaluate the performance of PIRL-AD against a non-physics informed RL benchmark and a support vector machine (SVM) on data collected from a forced flow loop testbed. Experimental results suggest that PIRL-AD outperforms other baselines on a range of anomalous datasets that include both sensor and human-induced anomalies across key performance metrics, statistically outperforming the RL and SVM benchmarks with respect to geometric mean (respectively, 92.96% vs. 91.06% vs. 83.01%) and F1-score (respectively, 89.23% vs. 86.98% vs. 77.01%). Furthermore, the findings suggest the potential of physics-integrated reinforcement learning models for enhanced anomaly detection performance in NPPs.

Reinforcement learning↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and validation of a mathematical model of heart rate response to fluid perturbation

Physiological closed-loop controlled (PCLC) medical devices monitor and automatically adjust the patient’s condition by using physiological variables as feedback, ideally with minimal human intervention to achieve the target levels set by a clinician. PCLC devices present a challenge when it comes to evaluating their performance, where conducting large clinical trials can be expensive. Virtual physiological patients simulated by validated mathematical models can be utilized to obtain preclinical evidence of safety and assess the performance of the PCLC medical device during normal and worst-case conditions that are unlikely to happen in a limited clinical trial. A physiological variable that plays a major role during fluid resuscitation is heart rate (HR). For in silico assessment of PCLC medical devices regarding fluid perturbation, there is currently no mathematical model of HR validated in terms of its predictive capability performance. This paper develops and validates a mathematical model of HR response using data collected from sheep subjects undergoing hemorrhage and fluid infusion. The model proved to be accurate in estimating the HR response to fluid perturbation, where averaged between 21 calibration datasets, the fitting performance showed a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 7.41 ± 2.8%. The model was also evaluated in terms of model predictive capability performance via a leave-one-out procedure (21 subjects) and an independent validation dataset (6 subjects). Two different virtual cohort generation tools were used in each validation analysis. The generated envelope of virtual subjects robustly met the defined acceptance criteria, in which 95% of the testing datasets presented simulated HR patterns that were within a deviation of 50% from the observed data. In addition, out of 16000 and 18522 simulated subjects for the leave one-out and independent datasets, the model was able to generate at least one virtual subject that was close to the real subject within an error margin of 9.56 ± 3.15% and 11.1 ± 1.22% NRMSE, respectively. In conclusion, the model can generate valid virtual HR physiological responses to fluid perturbation and be incorporated into future non-clinical simulated testing setups for assessing PCLC devices intended for fluid resuscitation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract Daily maximum temperatures during the 2021 heatwave in the Pacific Northwest United States and Canada shattered century old records. Multiple causal factors, including anthropogenic climate change, contributed to these high temperatures, challenging traditional methods of attributing human influence. We demonstrate that the observed 2021 daily maximum temperatures are far above the bounds of Generalized Extreme Value distributions fitted from historical data. Hence, confidence in Granger causal inference statements about the human influence on this heatwave is low. Alternatively, we present a more conditional hindcast attribution study using two regional models. We performed ensembles of simulations of the heatwave to investigate how the event would have changed if it had occurred without anthropogenic climate change and with future warming. We found that global warming caused a ∼0.8°C–1°C increase in heatwave temperatures. Future warming would lead to a ∼5°C increase in heatwave temperature by the end of the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A machine-learning-driven data labeling pipeline for scientific analysis in MLExchange

This study introduces a novel labeling pipeline to accelerate the labeling process of scientific data sets by using artificial intelligence (AI)-guided tagging techniques. This pipeline includes a set of interconnected web-based graphical user interfaces (GUIs), where Data Clinic and MLCoach enable the preparation of machine learning (ML) models for data reduction and classification, respectively, while Label Maker is used for label assignment. Throughout this pipeline, data can be accessed through a direct connection to a file system or through Tiled for access through Hypertext Transfer Protocol (HTTP). Our experimental results present three use cases where this labeling pipeline has been instrumental for the study of large X-ray scattering data sets in the area of pattern recognition, the remote analysis of resonant soft X-ray scattering data and the fine-tuning process of foundation models. These use cases highlight the labeling capabilities of this pipeline, including the ability to label large data sets in a short period of time, to perform remote data analysis while minimizing data movement and to enhance the fine-tuning process of complex ML models with human involvement.

Chavez, Tanny (ORCID:0000000193172896)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Biofidelic Digital Head Model Software

Researchers at Los Alamos have extensive capabilities in biofidelic modeling, simulation and software development for predicting traumatic brain injury (TBI). Since injury-causing experiments cannot be performed on live humans, and head dummies are incapable of predicting brain deformations/strain, our approach uses magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data for the brain combined with advanced computational methods and substructure constitutive properties to identify harmful accelerations that may develop diffused axonal injury in the brain. The goal is to develop this capability to analyze the effectiveness of personal protective equipment (PPE) such as, helmets and the advanced energy-absorbing materials used in PPE to mitigate brain injury. Los Alamos is seeking a collaborative partner (through a cooperative research and development agreement) to develop this capability toward a potential technology that will have commercial viability.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Human Factors and Technologies Design to Improve User Acceptance of Pooled Rideshare for Increasing Transportation System Energy Efficiency

This multi-year project delivered a comprehensive, human-factors-driven framework to understand, model, and improve pooled rideshare (PR) adoption in the United States. Through three large-scale national survey studies involving more than 16,000 participants across multiple cities and demographic groups, the research established one of the most extensive datasets to date on user perceptions, behavioral barriers, and service expectations related to pooled rideshare. These data revealed key human factors barriers of user acceptance of PR and suggested potential actionable experience optimizations that could lead to increased PR usage. This foundational knowledge guided the development of novel human-factors models and behavioral choice models that quantify how psychological, demographic, and trip-level factors influence willingness to pool. Building on these empirical insights, the project developed advanced behavioral modeling tools, including mixed logit and integrated choice and latent variable models, to capture both observable and latent influences on PR adoption. These models significantly improved the ability to predict riders’ acceptance of pooled trips, explaining choice heterogeneity through latent constructs such as safety, service experience, privacy concerns, time sensitivity, and environmental attitudes. Together, these models provide a robust analytical foundation for designing PR systems that more effectively meet user needs. The project translated human-factors insights and behavioral models into actionable technology innovations by extending POLARIS—an agent-based, activity-based travel simulation platform—into a fully functional pooled rideshare simulation environment. New PR modules, acceptance models, and regional scenarios were implemented for Greenville, SC and Austin, TX, enabling high-fidelity validation of algorithmic strategies under realistic demand and traffic conditions. The simulation platform supported the development and evaluation of adaptive discount-based assignment algorithms, enhanced willingness-to-pay formulations, demographic-aware incentive mechanisms, and a proactive joint assignment and repositioning strategy. Simulation results demonstrated substantial gains in pooling uptake, average vehicle occupancy, energy efficiency, and fleet profitability. In Greenville, pooling adoption more than doubled, while reductions in vehicle-miles traveled and energy consumption were significant. In Austin, pooling improvements were achieved with minimal service-quality trade-offs, and profitability increased across all fleet sizes. Through this research, we developed a comprehensive understanding of the human factors barriers that limit user acceptance of pooled rideshare services. These insights enabled the design of human-factors-aware pooled rideshare technologies that more effectively address user concerns and improve adoption rates. By integrating these models into an advanced agent-based simulation framework, we demonstrated that higher adoption of pooled rideshare can lead to measurable improvements in energy efficiency and system performance. Together, these contributions establish a validated pathway from human-centered analysis to technology development and energy-saving outcomes, supporting national goals for more sustainable and efficient mobility systems.

Jia, Yunyi↗
DOE OSTI2022

Always look on the bright side of life: Taking a different perspective on cybersecurity performance

This presentation will introduce participants to key mental models on how to think about and understand safety from two of the leading voices in the discipline – Dr. Erik Hollnagel and Dr. Todd Conklin – and from there we ask the simple question of “how can we apply this to cybersecurity?” At the completion of this presentation attendees will be able to describe Dr. Hollnagel’s Safety-II approach and Dr. Conkiln’s definition of safety as “not the absence of accidents but the presence of effective defenses.” They will be able to explain how these ideas translate to the cybersecurity world broadly, and more specifically to operational technology cybersecurity where physical safety consequences are coupled to control system performance. Finally, participants will be able to identify how selected principles from Weick and Sutcliffe’s high reliability organization theory can help operationalize these key mental models around safety, for improved organizational cybersecurity over the long run.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Confidence-weighted integration of human and machine judgments for superior decision-making

Large language models (LLMs) can surpass humans in certain forecasting tasks. What role does this leave for humans in the overall decision process? One possibility is that humans, despite performing worse than LLMs, can still add value when teamed with them. A human and machine team can surpass each individual teammate when team members’ confidence is well calibrated and team members diverge in which tasks they find difficult (i.e., calibration and diversity are needed). We simplified and extended a Bayesian approach to combining judgments using a logistic regression framework that integrates confidence-weighted judgments for any number of team members. Using this straightforward method, we demonstrated its effectiveness in both image classification and neuroscience forecasting tasks. Combining human judgments with one or more machines consistently improved overall team performance. Our hope is that this simple and effective strategy for integrating the judgments of humans and machines will lead to productive collaborations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗