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At least 109 records · Page 6

The Microwave Radiative Properties of Falling Snow Derived from Nonspherical Ice Particle Models. Part II: Initial Testing Using Radar, Radiometer and In Situ Observations

In this study, two different particle models describing the structure and electromagnetic properties of snow are developed and evaluated for potential use in satellite combined radar-radiometer precipitation estimation algorithms. In the first model, snow particles are assumed to be homogeneous ice-air spheres with single-scattering properties derived from Mie theory. In the second model, snow particles are created by simulating the self-collection of pristine ice crystals into aggregate particles of different sizes, using different numbers and habits of the collected component crystals. Single-scattering properties of the resulting nonspherical snow particles are determined using the discrete dipole approximation. The size-distribution-integrated scattering properties of the spherical and nonspherical snow particles are incorporated into a dual-wavelength radar profiling algorithm that is applied to 14- and 34-GHz observations of stratiform precipitation from the ER-2 aircraft-borne High-Altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (HIWRAP) radar. The retrieved ice precipitation profiles are then input to a forward radiative transfer calculation in an attempt to simulate coincident radiance observations from the Conical Scanning Millimeter-Wave Imaging Radiometer (CoSMIR). Much greater consistency between the simulated and observed CoSMIR radiances is obtained using estimated profiles that are based upon the nonspherical crystal/aggregate snow particle model. Despite this greater consistency, there remain some discrepancies between the higher moments of the HIWRAP-retrieved precipitation size distributions and in situ distributions derived from microphysics probe observations obtained from Citation aircraft underflights of the ER-2. These discrepancies can only be eliminated if a subset of lower-density crystal/aggregate snow particles is assumed in the radar algorithm and in the interpretation of the in situ data.

Ice particles; Radiances; Radiative transfer; Airc↗

Evaluation of Intercomparisons of Four Different Types of Model Simulating TWP-ICE

Four model intercomparisons were run and evaluated using the TWP-ICE field campaign, each involving different types of atmospheric model. Here we highlight what can be learnt from having single-column model (SCM), cloud-resolving model (CRM), global atmosphere model (GAM) and limited-area model (LAM) intercomparisons all based around the same field campaign. We also make recommendations for anyone planning further large multi-model intercomparisons to ensure they are of maximum value to the model development community. CRMs tended to match observations better than other model types, although there were exceptions such as outgoing long-wave radiation. All SCMs grew large temperature and moisture biases and performed worse than other model types for many diagnostics. The GAMs produced a delayed and significantly reduced peak in domain-average rain rate when compared to the observations. While it was shown that this was in part due to the analysis used to drive these models, the LAMs were also driven by this analysis and did not have the problem to the same extent. Based on differences between the models with parametrized convection (SCMs and GAMs) and those without (CRMs and LAMs), we speculate that that having explicit convection helps to constrain liquid water whereas the ice contents are controlled more by the representation of the microphysics.

convection↗

Evaluation of a Thermodynamic Ice Crystal Accretion Model using Experimental Data from NASA’s 2nd Fundamental Ice Crystal Icing Test

A thermodynamic model describing ice crystal icing is evaluated using experimental data collected at NASA Propulsion Systems Laboratory. The model makes the distinction between ice accretions that are "freeze-dominated" and "melt-dominated". Freeze-dominated icing occurs when partially melted ice crystals impact a surface and freeze. This type of icing is characterized by strong adhesion. This contrasts with melt-dominated icing, where un-melted ice crystals adhere to a surface. This type of icing is characterized by weak adhesion. In this paper, the thermodynamic model is used to analyze the ice growth rates and facility conditions to explain possible phenomena such as mass loss as well as the melting and freezing fractions. Previous analyses assumed a collection efficiency of unity at the leading edge of the experimental model. LEWICE is used to determine a better estimate of the collection efficiency at the model leading edge as ice accretion grows in time. The result shows that the sticking efficiency could change in a greater percent with time than previously reported.

Ice Crystal Icing↗

An overview of a model rotor icing test in the NASA Lewis Icing Research Tunnel

During two entries in late 1989, a heavily instrumented sub-scale model of a helicopter main rotor was tested in the NASA LeRC Icing Research Tunnel (IRT). The results of this series of tunnel tests were published previously. After studying the results from the 1989 test and comparing them to predictions, it became clear that certain test conditions still needed investigation. Therefore, a re-entry of the Sikorsky Aircraft Powered Force Model (PFM) in the IRT was instituted in order to expand upon the current rotor craft sub-scale model experimental database. The major areas of interest included expansion of the test matrix to include a larger number of points in the FAA AC 29-2 icing envelope, inclusion of a number of high power rotor performance points, close examination of warm temperature operations, operation of the model in constant lift mode, and testing for conditions for icing test points in the full scale helicopter database. The expanded database will allow further and more detailed examination and comparison with analytical models. Participants in the test were NASA LeRC, the U.S. Army Vehicle Propulsion Directorate based at LeRC, and Sikorsky Aircraft. The model rotor was exposed to a range of icing conditions (temperature, liquid water content, median droplet diameter) and was operated over ranges of shaft angle, rotor tip speed, advance ratio, and rotor lift. The data taken included blade strain gage and balance data, as well as still photography, video, ice profile tracings, and ice molds. A discussion of the details of the test is given herein. Also, a brief examination of a subset of the data taken is also given.

Britton, Randall K.↗

Wave evolution in the marginal ice zone - Model predictions and comparisons with on-site and remote data

The ocean-wave dispersion relation and viscous attenuation by a sea ice cover were studied for waves in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). The Labrador ice margin experiment (Limex), conducted off the east coast of Newfoundland, Canada in March 1987, provided aircraft SAR, wave buoy, and ice property data. Based on the wave number spectrum from SAR data, the concurrent wave frequency spectrum from ocean buoy data, and accelerometer data on the ice during Limex '87, the dispersion relation has been derived and compared with the model. Accelerometers were deployed at the ice edge and into the ice pack. Data from the accelerometers were used to estimate wave energy attenuation rates and compared with the model. The model-data comparisons are reasonably good for the ice conditions observed during Limex' 87.

Liu, A. K.↗

Wave propagation in the marginal ice zone - Model predictions and comparisons with buoy and synthetic aperture radar data

Ocean wave dispersion relation and viscous attenuation by a sea ice cover are studied for waves propagating into the marginal ice zone (MIZ). The Labrador ice margin experiment (LIMEX), conducted on the MIZ off the east coast of Newfoundland, Canada in March 1987, provided aircraft SAR imagery, ice property and wave buoy data. Wave energy attenuation rates are estimated from SAR data and the ice motion package data that were deployed at the ice edge and into the ice pack, and compared with a model. It is shown that the model data comparisons are quite good for the ice conditions observed during LIMEX 1987.

Liu, Antony K.↗

An Investigation of the Grain Size and Adhesion Strength of High-Speed Impact Ice

Ice accumulation on aircraft from supercooled water droplets (impact icing) can increase drag and decrease lift, leading to a decrease in fuel efficiency and a potential for unsafe situations. Anti-icing materials and coatings are of high interest to prevent aircraft icing. Because no anti-icing material suitable for in-flight situations has been realized, icing models aim to predict the accumulation and shape of the ice to understand its effects. In both cases, understanding the physical mechanism behind ice adhesion and shedding is necessary. A recent literature review has shown that the apparent ice adhesion strength to any specific material varies over several orders of magnitude across studies and test methods. One of the reasons for this high variance is likely to be the varying microstructure of the ice used for different studies. Although the microstructure of impact ice has been studied in the past, those conditions were not relevant to that of in-flight aircraft icing. The microstructure of the ice formed will determine both its bulk and surface properties, yet it has been overlooked in the ice adhesion community. Here, we use optical microscopy to study the non-uniform ice crystal grain size in impact ice accreted in NASA Glenn Research Center’s Icing Research Tunnel at various icing conditions. Similar to other environmental conditions studied in the literature, we show an increase in grain size at larger distances from the growth interface; however, the data shows substantially larger grains than what was expected from the prior literature. Ice accrued at lower temperatures has a smaller grain size at all distances from the growth interface. No change in grain size was noticed when varying only the wind speed. A correlational analysis shows that smaller grain sizes at the growth interface corresponded to an increase in the apparent ice adhesion strength when the adhesive failure was interfacial, but not when the failure was cohesive. These results may explain the overall trend in the literature of increasing apparent adhesion strength with decreasing temperature. Incorporating microstructure trends for various environmental conditions in icing models may increase the certainty in predicting ice adhesion strength and shedding, and will provide a better basis for comparison between adhesive tests on ice produced in different facilities and at different storage times.

• Ice Fabric↗

Development and Validation of Physics Based Models for Ice Shedding

Calculations for ice accretion and shedding are presented for a model scale rotor in hover. The aerodynamic characteristics of the rotor are first computed using a combined blade element-momentum theory. The effective angles of attack, and the local flow velocity are used within the NASA Glenn solver LEWICE to estimate the collection efficiency. The computed convection efficiency and the surface pressure distribution from a panel method within LEWICE are used to estimate the ice accretion over the rotor blades over an elapsed time interval. Finally, a force balance approach is used to establish shedding events where the centrifugal force over the ice mass exceeds the adhesive forces at the rotor surface and the cohesive forces between adjacent masses of ice. Preliminary comparisons with test data acquired at the Pennsylvania State Icing Research Tunnel are presented. Sensitivity of the ice shedding events to surface roughness, adhesive strength, cohesive strength, and ambient conditions is discussed.

Gupta, Avani↗

Low temperature simulation of subliming boundary layer flow in Jupiter atmosphere

A low-temperature approximate simulation for the sublimation of a graphite heat shield under Jovian entry conditions is studied. A set of algebraic equations is derived to approximate the governing equation and boundary conditions, based on order-of-magnitude analysis. Characteristic quantities such as the wall temperature and the subliming velocity are predicted. Similarity parameters that are needed to simulate the most dominant phenomena of the Jovian entry flow are also given. An approximate simulation of the sublimation of the graphite heat shield is performed with an air-dry-ice model. The simulation with the air-dry-ice model may be carried out experimentally at a lower temperature of 3000 to 6000 K instead of the entry temperature of 14,000 K. The rate of graphite sublimation predicted by the present algebraic approximation agrees to the order of magnitude with extrapolated data. The limitations of the simulation method and its utility are discussed.

Chen, C. J.↗

Century/millennium internal climate oscillations in an ocean-atmosphere-continental ice sheet model

We demonstrate in a simple climate model that there exist nonlinear feedbacks between the atmosphere, ocean, and ice sheets capable of producing century/millennium timescale internal oscillations resembling those seen in the paleoclimate record. Feedbacks involve meridional heat and salt transports in the North Atlantic, surface ocean freshwater fluxes associated with melting and growing continental ice sheets in the northen hemisphere and with Atlantic to Pacific water vapor transport. The positive feedback between the production of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and the meridional salt transport by the Atlantic thermohaline circulation tends to destabilize the climate system, while the negative feedback between the freshwater flux, either to or from the continental ice sheets, and meridional heat flux to the high-latitude North Atlantic, accomplished by the thermohaline circulation, stabilizes the system. The thermohaline circulation plays a central role in both positive and negative feedbacks because of its transport of both heat and salt. Because of asymmetries between the growth and melt phases the oscillations are, in general, accompanied by a growing or decreasing ice volume over each cycle, which in the model is reflected by increasing or decreasing mean salinity.

Birchfield, Edward G.↗

A molecular model for ice nucleation and growth, attachment 2

The central field empirical pair potential model is applied to studying the effects of kinks, ledges, and vacancies on the absorption of water molecules from the vapor. Molecular dynamics simulations indicate that cluster and/or surface modes play a primary role in the absorption process, the flexibility of the hydrogen bond serves to decrease the energy required for structural interconversion, and the rapid distribution of added energy in a hydrogen bonded system lead to aggregate stability which greatly exceeds that predicted by static energy calculations.

Hale, B. N.↗

Observed and Modeled Trends in Southern Ocean Sea Ice

Conceptual models and global climate model (GCM) simulations have both indicated the likelihood of an enhanced sensitivity to climate change in the polar regions, derived from the positive feedbacks brought about by the polar abundance of snow and ice surfaces. Some models further indicate that the changes in the polar regions can have a significant impact globally. For instance, 37% of the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 in simulations with the GCM of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is attributable exclusively to inclusion of sea ice variations in the model calculations. Both sea ice thickness and sea ice extent decrease markedly in the doubled CO, case, thereby allowing the ice feedbacks to occur. Stand-alone sea ice models have shown Southern Ocean hemispherically averaged winter ice-edge retreats of 1.4 deg latitude for each 1 K increase in atmospheric temperatures. Observations, however, show a much more varied Southern Ocean ice cover, both spatially and temporally, than many of the modeled expectations. In fact, the satellite passive-microwave record of Southern Ocean sea ice since late 1978 has revealed overall increases rather than decreases in ice extents, with ice extent trends on the order of 11,000 sq km/year. When broken down spatially, the positive trends are strongest in the Ross Sea, while the trends are negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas. Greater spatial detail can be obtained by examining trends in the length of the sea ice season, and those trends show a coherent picture of shortening sea ice seasons throughout almost the entire Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula and in the far western Weddell Sea immediately to the east of the Peninsula, with lengthening sea ice seasons around much of the rest of the continent. This pattern corresponds well with the spatial pattern of temperature trends, as the Peninsula region is the one region in the Antarctic with a strong record of temperature increases. Still, although the patterns of the temperature and ice changes match fairly well, there is a substantial ways to go before these patterns are understood (and can be modeled) in the full context of global change.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗

Swept wing ice accretion modeling

An effort to develop a three-dimensional modeling method was initiated. This first step towards creation of a complete aircraft icing simulation code builds on previously developed methods for calculating three-dimensional flow fields and particle trajectories combined with a two-dimensional ice accretion calculation along coordinate locations corresponding to streamlines. This work is a demonstration of the types of calculations necessary to predict a three-dimensional ice accretion. Results of calculations using the 3-D method for a MS-317 swept wing geometry are projected onto a 2-D plane normal to the wing leading edge and compared to 2-D results for the same geometry. It is anticipated that many modifications will be made to this approach, however, this effort will lay the groundwork for future modeling efforts. Results indicate that the flow field over the surface and the particle trajectories differed for the two calculations. This led to lower collection efficiencies, convective heat transfer coefficients, freezing fractions, and ultimately ice accumulation for the 3-D calculation.

Potapczuk, Mark G.↗

Distribution of rock, metals, and ices in Callisto

Radio Doppler data from a single encounter (C3) of the Galileo spacecraft with Callisto, the outermost Galilean moon of Jupiter, indicated that Callisto was probably undifferentiated. Now, similar data from a second encounter (C9) corroborate this conclusion, but more accurate data from a third encounter (C10) indicate that the rock and ice within Callisto have partially, but not completely, separated. Callisto may be differentiated into a rock-metal core less than 25 percent of Callisto's radius, an outer layer of clean ice less than 350 km thick, and a middle layer of mixed rock and ice. Models in which ice and rock are mixed all the way to the center of Callisto are also consistent with the data.

Galileo Project↗

The Use of RGPS Kinematic Data to Estimate Nonlinear Sea Ice Motion

In current simulations of the interaction between sea ice and its environment, large significance is placed on the deformation of the sea ice. Sea ice deformation is an important process in determining the sea ice thickness distribution across a wide range of space and time scales. Changes in the sea ice thickness distribution affect energy and mass fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean and also the strength of the ice. While most current ice models assume linear variation in the ice motion field to calculate strain, deformation of sea ice occurs through the opening, closing and shearing of ice along discrete linear features. New numerical models are being developed which explicitly account for discontinuities in ice motion, and the need for requisite data sets for model validation has emerged. Multiple buoy data sets, as well as satellite data, have been used to examine the movement and deformation of sea ice. Generally it has been found that the ice motion field has been represented well by buoy data, as well as satellite data over a broad range of scales. However, the underlying deformation (spatial variation in displacement) as represented by different data sets may vary. For the work presented here, sea ice motion In current simulations of the interaction between sea ice and its environment, large significance is placed on the deformation of the sea ice. Sea ice deformation is an important process in determining the sea ice thickness distribution across a wide range of space and time scales. Changes in the sea ice thickness distribution affect energy and mass fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean and also the strength of the ice. While most current ice models assume linear variation in the ice motion field to calculate strain, deformation of sea ice occurs through the opening, closing and shearing of ice along discrete linear features. New numerical models are being developed which explicitly account for discontinuities in ice motion, and the need for requisite data sets for model validation has emerged. Multiple buoy data sets, as well as satellite data, have been used to examine the movement and deformation of sea ice. Generally it has been found that the ice motion field has been represented well by buoy data, as well as satellite data over a broad range of scales. However, the underlying deformation (spatial variation in displacement) as represented by different data sets may vary. For the work presented here, sea ice motio

Pruis, M.↗

GEOS S2S-2_1 File Specification: GMAO Seasonal and Sub-Seasonal Forecast Output

The NASA GMAO seasonal (9 months) and subseasonal (45 days) forecasts are produced with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model and Data Assimilation System Version S2S-2_1. The new system replaces version S2S-1.0 described in Borovikov et al (2017), and includes upgrades to many components of the system. The atmospheric model includes an upgrade from a pre-MERRA-2 version running on a latitude-longitude grid at approx. 1 degree resolution to a current version running on a cubed sphere grid at approximately 1/2 degree resolution. The important developments are related to the dynamical core (Putman et al., 2011), the moist physics (''two-moment microphysics'' of Barahona et al., 2014) and the cryosphere (Cullather et al., 2014). As in the previous GMAO S2S system, the land model is that of Koster et al (2000). GMAO S2S-2_1 now includes the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART, Colarco et al., 2010) single moment interactive aerosol model that includes predictive aerosols including dust, sea salt and several species of carbon and sulfate. The previous version of GMAO S2S specified aerosol amounts from climatology, which were used to inform the atmospheric radiation only. The ocean model includes an upgrade from MOM4 to MOM5 (Griffies 2012), and continues to be run on the tripolar grid at approximately 1/2 degree resolution in the tropics with 40 vertical levels. As in S2S-1.0, the sea ice model is from the Los Alamos Sea Ice model (CICE4, Hunke and Lipscomb 2010). The Ocean Data Assimilation System (ODAS) has been upgraded from the one described in Borovikov et al., 2017 to one that uses a modified version of the Penny, 2014 Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF), and now assimilates along-track altimetry. The ODAS also does a nudging to MERRA-2 SST and sea ice boundary conditions. The atmospheric data assimilation fields used to constrain the atmosphere in the ODAS have been upgraded from MERRA to a MERRA-2 like system. The system is initialized using a MERRA-2-like atmospheric reanalysis (Gelaro et al. 2017) and the GMAO S2S-2_1 ocean analysis. Additional ensemble members for forecasts are produced with initial states at 5-day intervals, with additional members based on perturbations of the atmospheric and ocean states. Both subseasonal and seasonal forecasts are submitted to the National MultiModel Ensemble (NMME) project, and are part of the US/Canada multimodel seasonal forecasts (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/). A large suite of retrospective forecasts (''hindcasts'') have been completed, and contribute to the calculation of the model's baseline climatology and drift, anomalies from which are the basis of the seasonal forecasts.

Seasonal Forecast↗

ISMIP6 Antarctica: A Multi-Model Ensemble of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution Over the 21st Century

Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between -7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica ass change varies between -6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

Hélène Seroussi↗