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NASA NTRS2012

The Annual Glaciohydrology Cycle in the Ablation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Part 2. Observed and Modeled Ice Flow

Ice velocities observed in 2005/06 at three GPS stations along the Sermeq Avannarleq flowline, West Greenland, are used to characterize an observed annual velocity cycle. We attempt to reproduce this annual ice velocity cycle using a 1-D ice-flow model with longitudinal stresses coupled to a 1-D hydrology model that governs an empirical basal sliding rule. Seasonal basal sliding velocity is parameterized as a perturbation of prescribed winter sliding velocity that is proportional to the rate of change of glacier water storage. The coupled model reproduces the broad features of the annual basal sliding cycle observed along this flowline, namely a summer speed-up event followed by a fall slowdown event. We also evaluate the hypothesis that the observed annual velocity cycle is due to the annual calving cycle at the terminus. We demonstrate that the ice acceleration due to a catastrophic calving event takes an order of magnitude longer to reach CU/ETH ('Swiss') Camp (46km upstream of the terminus) than is observed. The seasonal acceleration observed at Swiss Camp is therefore unlikely to be the result of velocity perturbations propagated upstream via longitudinal coupling. Instead we interpret this velocity cycle to reflect the local history of glacier water balance.

ice flow↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Impact of Laurentide Ice-sheet Topography on Glacial Climate

Simulations of past climates require altered boundary conditions to account for known shifts in the Earth system. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the existence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets caused profound changes in surface topography and albedo. While ice-sheet extent is fairly well known, numerous conflicting reconstructions of ice-sheet topography suggest that precision in this boundary condition is lacking. Here we use a high-resolution and oxygen-isotopeenabled fully coupled global circulation model (GCM) (GISS ModelE2-R), along with two different reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) that provide maximum and minimum estimates of LIS elevation, to assess the range of climate variability in response to uncertainty in this boundary condition.We present this comparison at two equilibrium time slices: the LGM, when differences in ice-sheet topography are maximized, and 14 ka, when differences in maximum ice-sheet height are smaller but still exist. Overall, we find significant differences in the climate response to LIS topography, with the larger LIS resulting in enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and warmer surface air temperatures, particularly over northeastern Asia and the North Pacific. These up- and downstream effects are associated with differences in the development of planetary waves in the upper atmosphere, with the larger LIS resulting in a weaker trough over northeastern Asia that leads to the warmer temperatures and decreased albedo from snow and sea-ice cover. Differences between the 14 ka simulations are similar in spatial extent but smaller in magnitude, suggesting that climate is responding primarily to the larger difference in maximum LIS elevation in the LGM simulations. These results suggest that such uncertainty in ice-sheet boundary conditions alone may significantly impact the results of paleoclimate simulations and their ability to successfully simulate past climates, with implications for estimating climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing utilizing past climate states.

glaciology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On the Prediction of Surface Melt Over the Greenland Ice Sheet at NWP and S2S Timescales

Greenland surface melt “events” – encompassing large swaths of the ice sheet over approximately 4-10 day periods – have occurred with increasing frequency in the 21st Century. Surface processes are significant to the ice sheet’s overall contribution to sea level. In addition, the sudden onset of widespread surface melt produces hazardous conditions for researchers and for communities adjacent to the ice sheet. The mechanisms producing melt events, their associated large-scale forcing, and timescales of interest are highly variable and poorly understood. Here we examine the predictability of melt events in a numerical weather prediction system (NWP) and a subseasonal-to-seasonal system (S2S). The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office forward processing (GMAO-FP) is an NWP system that incorporates an evolving, global hybrid 4D ensemble–variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation system and a state-of-the-art model that is run twice-daily with forecasts out to five and ten days. The GMAO S2S system is a hindcast-anomaly, coupled-model prediction system initialized with an atmospheric analysis, and in situ and satellite ocean data assimilation. Both systems represent ice sheet surface hydrology and snowpack processes. We examine the performance of the systems over the period 2018-2023, a span that includes approximately nine significant events, against analyses and satellite-derived melt extent. In addition to extent, we examine related conditions and their role in the melt forecast, including the onset of both omega and Rex atmospheric blocking patterns, sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, water vapor transport, precipitation, and surface preconditioning. We further examine the tendency for false-alarm events in each system and assess reasons for the forecast performance. North Atlantic atmospheric blocking patterns leading to surface melt are well forecast by the NWP system out to around eight days, while the S2S system generally underestimates the magnitude of such events at monthly lead times. These systems suggest that while short term forecasts of ice sheet melt and melt events are relatively robust, S2S predictions of surface conditions are highly dependent on the ability of a coupled system to generate the short-term atmospheric conditions associated with surface melt events.

Richard Cullather↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved Understanding of Multicentury Greenland Ice Sheet Response to Strong Warming in the Coupled CESM2‐CISM2 With Regional Grid Refinement

The simulation of ice sheet‐climate interactions, such as surface mass balance fluxes, is sensitive to model grid resolution. Here we simulate the multi‐century evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and its interaction with the climate using the Community Earth System Model version 2.2 (CESM2.2) including an interactive GrIS component (the Community Ice Sheet Model v2.1 [CISM2.1]) under an idealized warming scenario (atmospheric CO 2 increases by 1% yr -1 until quadrupling the pre‐industrial level and then is held fixed). A variable‐resolution (VR) grid with 1/4° regional refinement over the broader Arctic and 1° resolution elsewhere is applied to the atmosphere and land components, and the results are compared with conventional 1° lat‐lon grid simulations to investigate the impact of grid refinement. Compared with the 1° runs, the VR run features a slower rate of surface melt, especially over the western and northern GrIS, where the ice surface slopes gently toward the periphery. This difference pattern originates primarily from higher snow albedo and, thus, weaker albedo feedback in the VR run. The VR grid better captures the CISM ice sheet topography by reducing elevation discrepancies between CAM and CISM and is, therefore, less reliant on the downscaling algorithm, which is known to underestimate albedo gradients. The sea level rise contribution from the GrIS in the VR run is 53 mm by year 150 and 831 mm by year 350, approximately 40% and 20% less than that of the 1° runs, respectively.

Earth System Model↗

NASA NTRS1993

Geologic controls on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

The stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is intertwined with its geologic history. The sub-ice geology and the possibility of active rifting and associated elevated heat-flux and volcanism might be determining factors in ice-sheet behavior. Seismic monitoring of natural events at the base of Ice Stream C reveals the presence of a young sedimentary basin beneath the ice stream. The sediments are presumed to be of glacio-marine origin, similar to those beneath Ice Stream B and in the Ross Sea. The young sediments are approximately 1/2 km thick at UpC camp, but thin abruptly southward to 100 m or less. We hypothesize the presence of a fault with a throw of 400 m to account for this (though we have not directly detected the fault), rather than invoking unrealistic basement dips. To extend these studies to critical inland regions, we suggest an expanded explosive-source seismic survey of the Byrd Subglacial Basin to determine the extent and character of the hypothesized rift basin. High-resolution seismic monitoring will detect layering in the sedimentary column, as well as possibly imaging faults directly.

Anandakrishnan, Sridhar↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet Contribution to Sea‐Level Change Through 2300 by Capturing Gravitational, Rotational, and Deformational Effects

Ice-mass change induces regionally varying patterns of sea-level change due to gravitational, rotational, and deformational (GRD) effects, which in turn influence marine-based ice stability in Antarctica. For improved projection of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), there is a need for including GRD effects in modeling and improving understanding of basin-by-basin sensitivity of ice evolution to GRD effects under a range of climate scenarios. We couple a high-resolution, higher-order ice-sheet model with a 1D global sea-level model that fully captures GRD effects, and simulate ice evolution in Antarctica under the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 experiments. We perform two sets of coupled simulations incorporating 1D Maxwell solid Earth structure suitable for West and East Antarctica and show that the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) in West Antarctica has the highest sensitivity to GRD effects—in high-emission scenarios, grounding-line retreat accelerates by hundreds of kilometers by 2300 without GRD effects, but GRD effects delay this retreat on a timescale of decades. However, we find that delay times do not show a clear relationship to the strength of climate forcing alone. Furthermore, GRD effects can influence ice-sheet dynamics more than the choice of climate model for a given emissions scenario. In contrast, East Antarctica exhibits minimal sensitivity to GRD effects throughout the study period. These findings underscore the critical role of GRD effects in shaping future West AIS evolution, highlighting the importance of constraining the regional 3D Earth structure and bed topography in West Antarctica, particularly the ASE.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Physical Model of Moulin Evolution on the Greenland Ice Sheet

Nearly all proglacial water discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet is routed englacially via moulins. Identification of these moulins in high-resolution imagery is a frequent topic of study, but the processes controlling how and where moulins form remain poorly understood. Because moulins may reasonably compose approximately 10-15% of the englacial-subglacial hydrologic system, the evolution and shape of moulins can alter both the timing and variability of meltwater inputs to the bed. This evolution can impact both the form of the subglacial hydrologic system and associated response of ice motion. Here, we develop a physical model of moulin formation and evolution to constrain the role of englacial processes in shaping the form and structure of the subglacial hydrologic system. Within this model, moulin geometry is controlled by a balance of viscous and elastic deformation and is dependent on that deformation, refreezing, and the dissipation of turbulent and sensible heat energy. All of which are dependent on the characteristics of the available supraglacial meltwater and the surrounding ice. We find moulin geometry is responsive to changes in these parameters over the course of hours to days, indicating that diurnal and multi-day variations in melt can substantially alter the geometry of a moulin and, consequently, the pressure-discharge relationship at the bed of the ice sheet. Therefore, there is no single moulin shape that can appropriately represent englacial storage across the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Andrews, Lauren C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Combining Modis and Quikscat Data to Delineate Surface and Near-Surface Melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet

Over the last two decades, increasing melt has been measured on the Greenland Ice Sheet, along with mass loss as determined from satellite data, Monitoring the state of the Greenland Ice Sheet becomes critical especially because it is actively losing mass, and the ice sheet has a sea-level rise potential of 7 in. However measurement of the extent of surface melt varies depending on the sensor used, whether it is passive or active microwave or visible or thermal infrared. We have used remote-sensing data products to study surface and near-surface melt characteristics of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We present a blended MODIS-QS melt daily product for 2007 [1]. The products, including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily land-surface temperature (LST) and a special daily melt product derived from the QuikSCAT (QS) scatterometer [2,3] show consistency in delineating the melt boundaries on a daily basis in the 2007 melt season [I], though some differences are identified. An assessment of maximum melt area for the 2007 melt shows that the QSCAT product detects a greater amount of melt (862,769 square kilometers) than is detected by the MODIS LST product (766,184 square kilometers). The discrepancy is largely because the QS product can detect both surface and near-surface melt and the QS product captures melt if it occurred anytime during the day while the MODIS product is obtained from a point in time on a given day. However on a daily bases, other factors influence the measurement of melt extent. In this work we employ the digital-elevation model of Bamber et al. [4] along with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data to study some areas and time periods in detail during the 2007 melt season. We focus on times in which the QS and MODIS LST products do not agree exactly. We use NCEP and elevation data to analyze the atmospheric factors forcing the melt process, to gain an improved understanding of the conditions that lead to melt and melt persistence, and our ability to capture surface melt accurately using MODIS and QS data.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Troughs on Martian Ice Sheets: Analysis of Their Closure and Mass Balance

At the Copenhagen workshop on Martian polar processes, Ralf Greve commented that the flow regime surrounding scarps and troughs of the Martian polar ice sheets cannot be modeled using traditional "plan view" ice-sheet models. Such models are inadequate because they typically use reduced equations that embody certain simplifications applicable only to terrestrial ice sheets where the upper ice sheet surface is smooth. In response to this suggestion, we have constructed a 2-dimensional, time dependent "side view" (two spatial dimensions: one horizontal, one vertical) model of scarp closure that is designed to overcome the difficulties described by Greve. The purpose of the model is to evaluate the scales of stress variation and styles of flow closure so as to estimate errors that may be encountered by "plan view" models. We show that there may be avenues whereby the complications associated with scarp closure can be overcome in "plan view" models through appropriate parameterizations of 3-dimensional effects. Following this, we apply the flow model to simulate the evolution of a typical scarp on the North Polar Cap of Mars. Our simulations investigate: (a) the role of "radiation trapping" (see our companion abstract) in creating and maintaining "spiral-like" scarps on the ice sheet, (b) the consequences of different flowlaws and ice compositions on scarp evolution and, in particular, scarp age, and (c) the role of dust and debris in scarp evolution.

Fountain, A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Sea-level response to ice sheet evolution: An ocean perspective

The ocean's influence upon and response to Antarctic ice sheet changes is considered in relation to sea level rise over recent and future decades. Assuming present day ice fronts are in approximate equilibrium, a preliminary budget for the ice sheet is estimated from accumulation vs. iceberg calving and the basal melting that occurs beneath floating ice shelves. Iceberg calving is derived from the volume of large bergs identified and tracked by the Navy/NOAA Joint Ice Center and from shipboard observations. Basal melting exceeds 600 cu km/yr and is concentrated near the ice fronts and ice shelf grounding lines. An apparent negative mass balance for the Antarctic ice sheet may result from an anomalous calving rate during the past decade, but there are large uncertainties associated with all components of the ice budget. The results from general circulation models are noted in the context of projected precipitation increases and ocean temperature changes on and near the continent. An ocean research program that could help refine budget estimates is consistent with goals of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative.

Jacobs, Stanley S.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Using Results from the PlioMIP Ensemble to Investigate the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period

During an interval of the Late Pliocene, referred to here as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 million years ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the end of this century, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than preindustrial levels. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a significant reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mPWP provides a natural laboratory in which to investigate the long-term response of the Earth's ice sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-present-day world. At present, our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet during the mPWP is generally based upon predictions using single climate and ice sheet models. Therefore, it is essential that the model dependency of these results is assessed. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) has brought together nine international modeling groups to simulate the warm climate of the Pliocene. Here we use the climatological fields derived from the results of the 15 PlioMIP climate models to force an offline ice sheet model. We show that mPWP ice sheet reconstructions are highly dependent upon the forcing climatology used, with Greenland reconstructions ranging from an ice-free state to a near modern ice sheet. An analysis of the surface albedo variability between the climate models over Greenland offers insights into the drivers of inter-model differences. As we demonstrate that the climate model dependency of our results is high, we highlight the necessity of data-based constraints of ice extent in developing our understanding of the mPWP Greenland ice sheet.

sea level↗

NASA NTRS1997

Snowmelt on the Greenland Ice Sheet as Derived From Passive Microwave Satellite Data

The melt extent of the snow on the Greenland ice sheet is of considerable importance to the ice sheet's mass and energy balance, as well as Arctic and global climates. By comparing passive microwave satellite data to field observations, variations in melt extent have been detected by establishing melt thresholds in the cross-polarized gradient ratio (XPGR). The XPGR, defined as the normalized difference between the 19-GHz horizontal channel and the 37-GHz vertical channel of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), exploits the different effects of snow wetness on different frequencies and polarizations and establishes a distinct melt signal. Using this XPGR melt signal, seasonal and interannual variations in snowmelt extent of the ice sheet are studied. The melt is found to be most extensive on the western side of the ice sheet and peaks in late July. Moreover, there is a notable increasing trend in melt area between the years 1979 and 1991 of 4.4% per year, which came to an abrupt halt in 1992 after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. A similar trend is observed in the temperatures at six coastal stations. The relationship between the warming trend and increasing melt trend between 1979 and 1991 suggests that a 1 C temperature rise corresponds to an increase in melt area of 73000 sq km, which in general exceeds one standard deviation of the natural melt area variability.

Abdalati, Waleed↗

NASA NTRS2001

Estimates of Ice Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry: Past and Future

A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the 20% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to 1.6 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. A principal purpose of obtaining ice sheet elevation changes from satellite altimetry has been estimation of the current ice sheet mass balance. Limited information on ice sheet elevation change and their implications about mass balance have been reported by several investigators from radar altimetry (Seasat, Geosat, ERS-1&2). Analysis of ERS-1&2 data over Greenland for 7 years from 1992 to 1999 shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. Observed seasonal and interannual variations in ice surface elevation are larger than previously expected because of seasonal and interannUal variations in precipitation, melting, and firn compaction. In the accumulation zone, the variations in firn compaction are modeled as a function of temperature leaving variations in precipitation and the mass balance trend. Significant interannual variations in elevation in some locations, in particular the difference in trends from 1992 to 1995 compared to 1995 to 1999, can be explained by changes in precipitation over Greenland. Over the 7 years, trends in elevation are mostly positive at higher elevations and negative at lower elevations. In addition, trends for the winter seasons (from a trend analysis through the average winter elevations) are more positive than the corresponding trends for the summer. At lower elevations, the 7-year trends in some locations are strongly negative for summer and near zero or slightly positive for winter. These observations also demonstrate the potential for relating the variability in mass balance to changes in precipitation, temperature, and melting. Beginning in January 2002, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter mission will provide significantly better elevation accuracy and spatial coverage to 86E latitude and to the margins of the ice sheets.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

NASA NTRS2012

Variability of Surface Temperature and Melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet, 2000-2011

Enhanced melting along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data, have been documented for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Recently we developed a climate-quality data record of ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 1ST product -- http://modis-snow-ice.gsfc.nasa.gov. Using daily and mean monthly MODIS 1ST maps from the data record we show maximum extent of melt for the ice sheet and its six major drainage basins for a 12-year period extending from March of 2000 through December of 2011. The duration of the melt season on the ice sheet varies in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. The short time of the study period (approximately 12 years) precludes an evaluation of statistically-significant trends. However the dataset provides valuable information on natural variability of IST, and on the ability of the MODIS instrument to capture changes in IST and melt conditions indifferent drainage basins of the ice sheet.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Surface Temperature and Melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet, 2000 - 2011

Enhanced melting along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data, have been documented for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Recently we developed a climate-quality data record of ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product -- http://modis-snow-ice.gsfc.nasa.gov.Using daily and mean-monthly MODIS IST maps from the data record we show maximum extent of melt for the ice sheet and its six major drainage basins for a 12-year period extending from March of 2000 through December of 2011. The duration of the melt season on the ice sheet varies in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. The short time of the study period (approx 12 years) precludes an evaluation of statistically-significant trends. However the dataset provides valuable information on natural variability of IST, and on the ability of the MODIS instrument to capture changes in IST and melt conditions in different drainage basins of the ice sheet.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Spatial patterns in backscatter strength across the Greenland Ice Sheet

The relationship between the physical properties of the Greenland ice sheet and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data collected from aircraft and from ERS-1 is addressed. Limited aircraft data are combined with a description of the glacier surface to predict qualitatively the spatial and seasonal variation in backscatter strength across the ice sheet. In particular the model predicts relatively low backscatter near the ice edge where scattering is dominated by rough surface effects. Backscatter increases through the lake zone as volume scattering becomes important. Strongest backscatter is found in the percolation facies where volume scatter from snow grains and volume scatter from large, buried ice bodies becomes important. Backscatter weakens in the interior ice sheet where fine grained snow is the only mechanism producing backscatter.

Jezek, K. C.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Backscatter for Ice Sheet 2 Growth Phase in the Winter 1994 Winter Sea Ice Experiment

None. This is raw data from a data set taken during the CRRELEX94 experiment. The data are polarimetric C-band radar measurements of a saline ice sheet grown in the outdoor Geophysical Research Facility at the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Lab. See references for other descriptions of data.

sea ice ice sheet backscatter sea ice backscatter ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Antarctic ice sheet model comparison with uncurated geological constraints shows that higher spatial resolution improves deglacial reconstructions

Accurately reconstructing past changes to the shape and volume of the Antarctic ice sheet relies on the use of physically based and thus internally consistent ice sheet modeling, benchmarked against spatially limited geologic data. The challenge in model benchmarking against geologic data is diagnosing whether model-data misfits are the result of an inadequate model, inherently noisy or biased geologic data, and/or incorrect association between modeled quantities and geologic observations. In this work we address this challenge by (i) the development and use of a new model-data evaluation framework applied to an uncurated data set of geologic constraints, and (ii) nested high-spatial-resolution modeling designed to test the hypothesis that model resolution is an important limitation in matching geologic data. While previous approaches to model benchmarking employed highly curated datasets, our approach applies an automated screening and quality control algorithm to an uncurated public dataset of geochronological observations (specifically, cosmogenic-nuclide exposure-age measurements from glacial deposits in ice-free areas). This optimizes data utilization by including more geological constraints, reduces potential interpretive bias, and allows unsupervised assimilation of new data as they are collected. We also incorporate a nested model framework in which high-resolution domains are downscaled from a continent-wide ice sheet model. We highlight the application of this framework by applying these methods to a small ensemble of deglacial ice-sheet model simulations, and demonstrate that the nested approach improves the ability of model simulations to match exposure age data collected from areas of complex topography and ice flow. We develop a range of diagnostic model-data comparison metrics to provide more insight into model performance than possible from a single-valued misfit statistic, showing that different metrics capture different aspects of ice sheet deflation.

Geosciences↗