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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6

Magnetic Flux Plays an Important Role during a Black Hole X-Ray Binary Outburst in Radiative Two-temperature General Relativistic Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations

Abstract Black hole (Bh) X-ray binaries cycle through different spectral states of accretion over the course of months to years. Although persistent changes in the Bh mass accretion rate are generally recognized as the most important component of state transitions, it is becoming increasingly evident that magnetic fields play a similarly important role. In this article, we present the first radiative two-temperature general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics simulations in which an accretion disk transitions from a quiescent state at an accretion rate of M ̇ ∼ 10 − 10 M ̇ Edd to a hard-intermediate state at an accretion rate of M ̇ ∼ 10 − 2 M ̇ Edd . This huge parameter space in mass accretion rate is bridged by artificially rescaling the gas density scale of the simulations. We present two jetted BH models with varying degrees of magnetic flux saturation. We demonstrate that in “standard and normal evolution” models, which are unsaturated with magnetic flux, the hot torus collapses into a thin and cold accretion disk when M ̇ ≳ 5 × 10 − 3 M ̇ Edd . On the other hand, in “magnetically arrested disk” models, which are fully saturated with vertical magnetic flux, the plasma remains mostly hot with substructures that condense into cold clumps of gas when M ̇ ≳ 1 × 10 − 2 M ̇ Edd . This suggests that the spectral signatures observed during state transitions are closely tied to the level of magnetic flux saturation.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Impact of biomass burning aerosols on radiation, clouds, and precipitation over the Amazon: relative importance of aerosol–cloud and aerosol–radiation interactions

Biomass burning (BB) aerosols can influence regional and global climate through interactions with radiation, clouds, and precipitation. Here, we investigate the impact of BB aerosols on the energy balance and hydrological cycle over the Amazon Basin during the dry season. We performed simulations with a fully coupled meteorology–chemistry model, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), for a range of different BB emission scenarios to explore and characterize nonlinear effects and individual contributions from aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). The ARIs of BB aerosols tend to suppress low-level liquid clouds by local warming and increased evaporation and to facilitate the formation of high-level ice clouds by enhancing updrafts and condensation at high altitudes. In contrast, the ACIs of BB aerosol particles tend to enhance the formation and lifetime of low-level liquid clouds by providing more cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and to suppress the formation of high-level ice clouds by reducing updrafts and condensable water vapor at high altitudes (>8 km). For scenarios representing the lower and upper limits of BB emission estimates for recent years (2002–2016), we obtained total regional BB aerosol radiative forcings of –0.2 and 1.5 W m –2 , respectively, showing that the influence of BB aerosols on the regional energy balance can range from modest cooling to strong warming. We find that ACIs dominate at low BB emission rates and low aerosol optical depth (AOD), leading to an increased cloud liquid water path (LWP) and negative radiative forcing, whereas ARIs dominate at high BB emission rates and high AOD, leading to a reduction of LWP and positive radiative forcing. In all scenarios, BB aerosols led to a decrease in the frequency of occurrence and rate of precipitation, caused primarily by ACI effects at low aerosol loading and by ARI effects at high aerosol loading. The dependence of precipitation reduction on BB aerosol loading is greater in a strong convective regime than under weakly convective conditions. Overall, our results show that ACIs tend to saturate at high aerosol loading, whereas the strength of ARIs continues to increase and plays a more important role in highly polluted episodes and regions. This should hold not only for BB aerosols over the Amazon, but also for other light-absorbing aerosols such as fossil fuel combustion aerosols in industrialized and densely populated areas. The importance of ARIs at high aerosol loading highlights the need for accurately characterizing aerosol optical properties in the investigation of aerosol effects on clouds, precipitation, and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The importance of Aitken mode aerosol particles for cloud sustenance in the summertime high Arctic – a simulation study supported by observational data

The potential importance of Aitken mode particles (diameters ~ 25–80 nm) for stratiform mixed-phase clouds in the summertime high Arctic (>80° N) has been investigated using two large-eddy simulation models. We find that, in both models, Aitken mode particles significantly affect the simulated microphysical and radiative properties of the cloud and can help sustain the cloud when accumulation mode concentrations are low (< 10–20 cm –3 ), even when the particles have low hygroscopicity (hygroscopicity parameter – κ=0.1). However, the influence of the Aitken mode decreases if the overall liquid water content of the cloud is low, either due to a higher ice fraction or due to low radiative cooling rates. An analysis of the simulated supersaturation (ss) statistics shows that the ss frequently reaches 0.5 % and sometimes even exceeds 1 %, which confirms that Aitken mode particles can be activated. The modelling results are in qualitative agreement with observations of the Hoppel minimum obtained from four different expeditions in the high Arctic. Our findings highlight the importance of better understanding Aitken mode particle formation, chemical properties and emissions, particularly in clean environments such as the high Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relative importance of high-latitude local and long-range-transported dust for Arctic ice-nucleating particles and impacts on Arctic mixed-phase clouds

Dust particles, serving as ice-nucleating particles (INPs), may impact the Arctic surface energy budget and regional climate by modulating the mixed-phase cloud properties and lifetime. In addition to long-range transport from low-latitude deserts, dust particles in the Arctic can originate from local sources. However, the importance of high-latitude dust (HLD) as a source of Arctic INPs (compared to low-latitude dust, LLD) and its effects on Arctic mixed-phase clouds are overlooked. In this study, we evaluate the contribution to Arctic dust loading and INP population from HLD and six LLD source regions by implementing a source-tagging technique for dust aerosols in version 1 of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Our results show that HLD is responsible for 30.7 % of the total dust burden in the Arctic, whereas LLD from Asia and North Africa contributes 44.2 % and 24.2 %, respectively. Due to its limited vertical transport as a result of stable boundary layers, HLD contributes more in the lower troposphere, especially in boreal summer and autumn when the HLD emissions are stronger. LLD from North Africa and East Asia dominates the dust loading in the upper troposphere with peak contributions in boreal spring and winter. The modeled INP concentrations show better agreement with both ground and aircraft INP measurements in the Arctic when including HLD INPs. The HLD INPs are found to induce a net cooling effect (-0.24 W m -2 above 60 °N) on the Arctic surface downwelling radiative flux by changing the cloud phase of the Arctic mixed-phase clouds. The magnitude of this cooling is larger than that induced by North African and East Asian dust (0.08 and -0.06 W m -2 , respectively), mainly due to different seasonalities of HLD and LLD. Uncertainties of this study are discussed, which highlights the importance of further constraining the HLD emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increased importance of aerosol–cloud interactions for surface PM 2.5 pollution relative to aerosol–radiation interactions in China with the anthropogenic emission reductions

Surface fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution can be enhanced by feedback processes induced by aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). Many previous studies have reported enhanced PM 2.5 concentrations induced by ARIs and ACIs for episodic events in China. However, few studies have examined the changes in the ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancements over a long period, though the anthropogenic emissions have changed substantially in the last decade. In this study, we quantify the ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 changes for 2013–2021 under different meteorology and emission scenarios using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), and we investigate the driving factors behind the changes. Our results show that, in January 2013, when China suffered from the worst PM 2.5 pollution, the PM 2.5 enhancement induced by ARIs in eastern China (5.59 µg m −3 ) was larger than that induced by ACIs (3.96 µg m −3 ). However, the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement showed a significantly smaller decrease ratio (51 %) than the ARI-induced enhancement (75 %) for 2013–2021, making ACIs more important for enhancing PM 2.5 concentrations in January 2021. Our analyses suggest that the anthropogenic emission reductions played a key role in this shift. Owing to only anthropogenic emission reductions, the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement decreased by 43 % in January, which was lower than the decrease ratio of the ARI-induced enhancement (57 %). The relative change in ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement in July was similar to the pattern observed in January, caused by anthropogenic emission reductions. The primary reason for this phenomenon is that the decrease in ambient PM 2.5 for 2013–2021 caused a disproportionately small decrease in the liquid water path (LWP) and an increase in the cloud effective radius (Re) under the condition of high PM 2.5 concentrations. Therefore, the surface solar radiation attenuation (and, hence, the boundary layer height reduction) caused by ACIs decreased slower than that caused by ARIs. Moreover, the lower decrease ratio of the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement was dominated by the lower decrease ratio of ACI-induced secondary PM 2.5 component enhancement, which was additionally caused by the smaller decrease ratio of the air temperature reduction and the relative humidity (RH) increase. Our findings indicate that, with the decrease in ambient PM 2.5 , the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement inevitably becomes more important. This needs to be considered in the formulation of control policies to meet the national PM 2.5 air quality standard.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects

Abstract. Estimating past aerosol radiative effects and their uncertainties is an important topic in climate science. Aerosol radiative effects propagate into large uncertainties in estimates of how present and future climate evolves with changing greenhouse gas emissions. A deeper understanding of how aerosols affected the atmospheric energy budget under past climates is hindered in part by a lack of relevant paleo-observations and in part because less attention has been paid to the problem. Because of the lack of information we do not seek here to determine the change in the radiative forcing due to aerosol changes but rather to estimate the uncertainties in those changes. Here we argue that current uncertainties from emission uncertainties (90 % confidence interval range spanning 2.8 W m−2) are just as large as model spread uncertainties (2.8 W m−2) in calculating preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative effects. There are no estimates of radiative forcing for important aerosols such as wildfire and dust aerosols in most paleoclimate time periods. However, qualitative analysis of paleoclimate proxies suggests that changes in aerosols between different past climates are similar in magnitude to changes in aerosols between the preindustrial and present day; plus, there is the added uncertainty from the variability in aerosols and fires in the preindustrial. From the limited literature we crudely estimate a paleoclimate aerosol uncertainty for the Last Glacial Maximum relative to preindustrial of 4.8 W m−2, and we estimate the uncertainty in the aerosol feedback in the natural Earth system over the paleoclimate (Last Glacial Maximum to preindustrial) to be about 3.2 W m−2 K−1. In order to more accurately assess the uncertainty in historical aerosol radiative effects, we propose a new model intercomparison project, which would include multiple plausible emission scenarios tested across a range of state-of-the-art climate models over the historical period. These emission scenarios would then be compared to the available independent aerosol observations to constrain which are most probable. In addition, future efforts should work to characterize and constrain paleo-aerosol forcings and uncertainties. Careful propagation of aerosol uncertainties in the literature is required to ensure an accurate quantification of uncertainties in projections of future climate changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Cosmogenic nuclide and solute flux data from central Cuban rivers emphasize the importance of both physical and chemical mass loss from tropical landscapes

We use 25 new measurements of in situ produced cosmogenic 26 Al and 10 Be in river sand, paired with estimates of dissolved load flux in river water, to characterize the processes and pace of landscape change in central Cuba. Long-term erosion rates inferred from 10 Be concentrations in quartz extracted from central Cuban river sand range from 3.4–189 Mg km –2 yr –1 (mean 59, median 45). Dissolved loads (10–176 Mg km –2 yr –1 ; mean 92, median 97), calculated from stream solute concentrations and modeled runoff, exceed measured cosmogenic- 10 Be-derived erosion rates in 18 of 23 basins. This disparity mandates that in this environment landscape-scale mass loss is not fully represented by the cosmogenic nuclide measurements. The 26 Al / 10 Be ratios are lower than expected for steadystate exposure or erosion in 16 of 24 samples. Depressed 26 Al/ 10 Be ratios occur in many of the basins that have the greatest disparity between dissolved loads (high) and erosion rates inferred from cosmogenic nuclide concentrations (low). Depressed 26 Al/ 10 Be ratios are consistent with the presence of a deep, mixed, regolith layer providing extended storage times on slopes and/or burial and extended storage during fluvial transport. River water chemical analyses indicate that many basins with lower 26 Al/ 10 Be ratios and high 10 Be concentrations are underlain at least in part by evaporitic rocks that rapidly dissolve. Our data show that when assessing mass loss in humid tropical landscapes, accounting for the contribution of rock dissolution at depth is particularly important. In such warm, wet climates, mineral dissolution can occur many meters below the surface, beyond the penetration depth of most cosmic rays and thus the production of most cosmogenic nuclides. Our data suggest the importance of estimating solute fluxes and measuring paired cosmogenic nuclides to better understand the processes and rates of mass transfer at a basin scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Importance of 3-D S{sub N} depletion in non-proliferation using BSOLVE

We present a single Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) 3-D fuel rod design for depletion analysis using BSOLVE, our newly developed Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg based depletion code. BSOLVE is coupled with the deterministic 3-D S{sub N} particle transport code, PENTRAN, applied here with a 4-neutron energy group comparison to Continuous Energy (C/E) SERPENT2 Monte Carlo results. Differences are expected, as PENTRAN+BSOLVE retains full (multi-group) energy information for reactions, nuclide specific fission contributions, and energy dependent fission yields, using the latest available ENDF-BVIII data, important to retain accurate burned fuel inventories; SERPENT2 collapses burnup reactions to a single energy value. For depletion times up to ∼ 700 days and typical PWR power densities, relative differences between multigroup 3-D S{sub N} with full energy data and Monte Carlo one group burnup for trans-uranium nuclide concentrations and fission products are up to ∼20%. System eigenvalues are consistent, but with differences early and late in the cycle attributed to multigroup vs. C/E Monte Carlo cross sections. This work highlights the importance of low variance transport driven burnup for non-proliferation concerns, since plutonium quality varies significantly along axial lengths, and is more challenging to converge using Monte Carlo; details of depletion steps with spatial/zone dependent plutonium quality are provided. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

The Importance of the Social Aspects of Agrivoltaics

This presentation features a high-level synthesis of international social science research on agrivoltaics. The main takeaways from this body of scholarship - namely the importance of farmer engagement, cross-sector collaboration, and legal frameworks - is discussed in the context of NREL's "5 C's of Agrivoltaic Success Factors" framework. A nested model approach to the 5 C's is proposed to emphasize the importance of the social aspects of agrivoltaics (Compatibility and Collaboration).

agrivoltaics↗

Sensitivity of the U.S. economy to oil prices controlling for domestic production and imports

This paper investigates the sensitivity of U.S. economic performance to oil price changes, accounting for changes in the domestic petroleum supply-demand balance over the last decade. Herein, a non-linear (asymmetric) autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is used to estimate the U.S. GDP elasticity with respect to the oil price, controlling for oil production, consumption and imports, and macroeconomic variables. The positive and negative components of the oil price both have statistically significant long-run impacts on the real U.S. GDP. The parameter estimates imply that a 1% positive and permanent oil price shock, all else the same, would have a long-run impact of –0.045% on the U.S. economy (an elasticity of –0.045), but short-run parameters on the positive oil price terms are not significant at the 10% level. The long-run parameter on the negative oil price component term implies an elasticity of –0.034. Thus, controlling for domestic U.S. oil production and oil trade, the long-run oil price elasticity of the U.S. GDP remains within the range of estimates from previous studies. The results also show that domestic oil production and consumption have short-run impacts on the U.S. GDP. The potential extent of interactions among these variables, and implications for the net economic impacts, under an oil price shock are subjects of future research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Flow annealed importance sampling bootstrap meets differentiable particle physics

High-energy physics requires the generation of large numbers of simulated data samples from complex but analytically tractable distributions called matrix elements. Surrogate models, such as normalizing flows, are gaining popularity for this task due to their computational efficiency. We adopt an approach based on flow annealed importance sampling bootstrap (FAB) that evaluates the differentiable target density during training and helps avoid the costly generation of training data in advance. We show that FAB reaches higher sampling efficiency with fewer target evaluations in high dimensions in comparison to other methods.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Data-Driven Multi-Period Importance Sampling Strategy for Stochastic Economic Dispatch

Power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy (e.g., wind power) require sophisticated approaches to optimize system performance due to uncertainty in short-term system generation capacity. In this paper, we combine a data-driven analog scenario selection method with importance sampling to create a novel scenario construction approach for two-stage stochastic economic dispatch problems with a large number of wind farms on a network. The proposed method produces scenarios with realistic physics by finding high-fidelity analogs that can describe future states of the system. We show how to extend this method to multi-period operations and demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique by simulating economic dispatch operations on a synthetic test system over the course of a week.

data-driven forecasting↗

An Adaptive-Importance-Sampling-Enhanced Bayesian Approach for Topology Estimation in an Unbalanced Power Distribution System

The reliable operation of a power distribution system relies on a good prior knowledge of its topology and its system state. Although crucial, due to the lack of direct monitoring devices on the switch statuses, the topology information is often unavailable or outdated for the distribution system operators for real-time applications. Apart from the limited observability of the power distribution system, other challenges are the nonlinearity of the model, the complicated, unbalanced structure of the distribution system, and the scale of the system. To overcome the above challenges, we, in this paper, propose a Bayesian-inference framework that allows us to simultaneously estimate the topology and the state of a three-phase, unbalanced power distribution system. Specifically, by using the very limited number of measurements available that are associated with the forecast load data, we efficiently recover the full Bayesian posterior distributions of the system topology under both normal and outage operation conditions. This is performed through an adaptive importance sampling procedure that greatly alleviates the computational burden of the traditional Monte-Carlo (MC)-sampling-based approach while maintaining a good estimation accuracy. The simulations conducted on the IEEE 123-bus test system and an unbalanced 1282-bus system reveal the excellent performances of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Ensemble approximate control variate estimators: Applications to multi-fidelity importance sampling.

The recent growth in multifidelity uncertainty quantification has given rise to a large set of variance reduction techniques that leverage information from model ensembles to provide variance reduction for estimates of the statistics of a high-fidelity model. In this paper we provide two contributions: (1) we utilize an ensemble estimator to account for uncertainties in the optimal weights of approximate control variate (ACV) approaches and derive lower bounds on the number of samples required to guarantee variance reduction; and (2) we extend an existing multifidelity importance sampling (MFIS) scheme to leverage control variates. Our approach directly addresses a limitation of many multifidelity sampling strategies that require the usage of pilot samples to estimate covariances. As such we make significant progress towards both increasing the practicality of approximate control variates—for instance, by accounting for the effect of pilot samples—and using multifidelity approaches more effectively for estimating low-probability events. The numerical results indicate our hybrid MFIS-ACV estimator achieves up to 50% improvement in variance reduction over the existing state-of-the-art MFIS estimator, which had already shown an outstanding convergence rate compared to the Monte Carlo method, on several problems of computational mechanics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Covariance-Free Bifidelity Control Variates Importance Sampling for Rare Event Reliability Analysis

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗

Leak Detection and Sensor Importance Within a Solvent Extraction Process Abstract

In anticipation of the Special Nuclear Material test bed (Beartooth), Idaho National Laboratory has developed a smaller, multi-sensor system for analyzing the solvent extraction process. These systems will allow for research into nuclear fuel processing operations. The multi-sensor system consists of a row of centrifugal contactors and allows for measurement sources that are not traditionally used in the solvent extraction process to be explored including temperature, vibration, acoustics, pH, color, flow, and motor current. Currently, the solvent extraction process is very labor intensive and requires vigilant operators to identify the occurrence of leaks, which can be common during startup or after any change to the system. This study aims to locate leaks using non-traditional measurement sources then to identify which signals were of greatest importance in making this classification using Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations. These results can be used to help solvent extraction process operators detect leaks and to inform future test beds designers to which sensors contain relevant, actionable information in this scenario.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Important Role of Ion Flux Regulated by Separators in Lithium Metal Batteries

Abstract Polyolefin separators are the most common separators used in rechargeable lithium (Li)‐ion batteries. However, the influence of different polyolefin separators on the performance of Li metal batteries (LMBs) has not been well studied. By performing particle injection simulations on the reconstructed three‐dimensional pores of different polyethylene separators, it is revealed that the pore structure of the separator has a significant impact on the ion flux distribution, the Li deposition behavior, and consequently, the cycle life of LMBs. It is also discovered that the homogeneity factor of Li‐ion toward Li metal electrode is positively correlated to the longevity and reproducibility of LMBs. This work not only emphasizes the importance of the pore structure of polyolefin separators but also provides an economic and effective method to screen favorable separators for LMBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The Importance of Avoided Crossings in Understanding High Valley Degeneracy in Half‐Heusler Thermoelectric Semiconductors

Abstract Half‐Heusler (hH) compounds are promising candidates for inexpensive, low‐toxicity thermoelectric materials. It is well known that engineering electronic bands with high valley degeneracy is an effective approach for enhancing the performance of thermoelectric materials, and there are several routes for achieving high valley degeneracy in hH systems. For instance, there are multiple locations in the first Brillouin zone where the valence band maximum can be found (at the Γ‐, L‐, or W‐point), and there are two competing low‐lying conduction bands at the X‐point, where the conduction band minimum is located. By converging the multiple valence band and conduction band extrema, the valley degeneracy, and hence, performance of these materials can be improved. Here, group theoretical and tight‐binding approaches, in addition to first‐principles density functional theory calculations, are used to study the chemical origins of various band extrema in both the n‐type and p‐type compounds, with particular focus on ZrNiSn and NbFeSb. Specifically, the importance of avoided crossings is explained. The results of this work can be used to better understand and develop design strategies for engineering better performing hH thermoelectrics.

Brod, Madison K.↗