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At least 109 records · Page 6

Recent developments of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program

The NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general purpose structural analysis methods to compute the probabilistic response and the reliability of engineering structures. Uncertainty in loading, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include nonlinear finite element and boundary element methods. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. The scope of the code has recently been expanded to include probabilistic life and fatigue prediction of structures in terms of component and system reliability and risk analysis of structures considering cost of failure. The code is currently being extended to structural reliability considering progressive crack propagation. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the new capabilities.

Millwater, H.↗

Prediction of high frequency combustion instability in liquid propellant rocket engines

The present use of a numerical model developed for the prediction of high-frequency combustion stabilities in liquid propellant rocket engines focuses on (1) the overall behavior of nonlinear combustion instabilities (2) the effects of acoustic oscillations on the fuel-droplet vaporization and combustion process in stable and unstable engine operating conditions, oscillating flowfields, and liquid-fuel trajectories during combustion instability, and (3) the effects of such design parameters as inlet boundary conditions, initial spray conditions, and baffle length. The numerical model has yielded predictions of the tangential-mode combustion instability; baffle length and droplet size variations are noted to have significant effects on engine stability.

Kim, Y. M.↗

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program

NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is a general-purpose, probabilistic analysis program that computes probability of failure and probabilistic sensitivity measures of engineered systems. Because NASA/NESSUS uses highly computationally efficient and accurate analysis techniques, probabilistic solutions can be obtained even for extremely large and complex models. Once the probabilistic response is quantified, the results can be used to support risk-informed decisions regarding reliability for safety-critical and one-of-a-kind systems, as well as for maintaining a level of quality while reducing manufacturing costs for larger-quantity products. NASA/NESSUS has been successfully applied to a diverse range of problems in aerospace, gas turbine engines, biomechanics, pipelines, defense, weaponry, and infrastructure. This program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general-purpose structural analysis and lifting methods to compute the probabilistic response and reliability of engineered structures. Uncertainties in load, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include non-linear finite-element methods, heat-transfer analysis, polymer/ceramic matrix composite analysis, monolithic (conventional metallic) materials life-prediction methodologies, boundary element methods, and user-written subroutines. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is structured in a modular format with 15 elements.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

Causal Factors and Adverse Conditions of Aviation Accidents and Incidents Related to Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control

The causal factors of accidents from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database and incidents from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) database associated with loss of control (LOC) were examined for four types of operations (i.e., Federal Aviation Regulation Part 121, Part 135 Scheduled, Part 135 Nonscheduled, and Part 91) for the years 1988 to 2004. In-flight LOC is a serious aviation problem. Well over half of the LOC accidents included at least one fatality (80 percent in Part 121), and roughly half of all aviation fatalities in the studied time period occurred in conjunction with LOC. An adverse events table was updated to provide focus to the technology validation strategy of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Project. The table contains three types of adverse conditions: failure, damage, and upset. Thirteen different adverse condition subtypes were gleaned from the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS), the FAA Accident and Incident database, and the NTSB database. The severity and frequency of the damage conditions, initial test conditions, and milestones references are also provided.

Reveley, Mary S.↗

Computational Analysis of the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel Using FUN3D

This paper presents results from an exploratory two-year effort of applying Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to analyze the empty-tunnel flow in the NASA Langley Research Center Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT). The TDT is a continuous-flow, closed circuit, 16- x 16-foot slotted-test-section wind tunnel, with capabilities to use air or heavy gas as a working fluid. In this study, experimental data acquired in the empty tunnel using the R-134a test medium was used to calibrate the computational data. The experimental calibration data includes wall pressures, boundary-layer profiles, and the tunnel centerline Mach number profiles. Subsonic and supersonic flow regimes were considered, focusing on Mach 0.5, 0.7 and Mach 1.1 in the TDT test section. This study discusses the computational domain, boundary conditions, and initial conditions selected and the resulting steady-state analyses using NASA's FUN3D CFD software.

Chwalowski, Pawel↗

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model - Correction

One of the three monthly mean forecasts computed previously by Spar et al., (1976) with the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) general circulation model was started from incorrect initial conditions. For the January 1975 prediction, a climatological mean January data set was accidentally substituted for the required January 1, 1975 initial data. In the present paper, the forecast for January 1975 is computed with the proper initial conditions, and the corrected results are presented. It is shown that the use of correct initial conditions improves the gross forecast mean energetics. In general, the use of correct initial conditions has resulted in a modest improvement in the monthly mean forecast for January 1975, but has not altered any of the previous conclusions by Spar et al.

Spar, J.↗

The three-point correlation function in an ensemble of three-dimensional simulations

We evaluate the three-point function in Fourier space for an ensemble of three-dimensional 128 exp 3 numerical simulations with initial power spectra characterized by spectral index n = +1, 0, -1, -2, -3, with no high-frequency cutoff and with cutoff k(c) = 16 or k(c) = 4. To remove dependences on scale and on time, we present results as the reduced amplitude Q in the hierarchical model as a function of the dimensionless variable kd(rms), where d(rms) is the mean square displacement of a particle from its initial position. For scale-free initial conditions, there is no evolution in Q. For initial conditions with a cutoff, Q evolves until the scale of the cutoff is in the nonlinear regime; the results afterwards are no different from those with no initial cutoff. The transition from quasi-linear to nonlinear regimes is followed. In the quasi-linear regime, our results agree well with gravitational perturbation theory predictions, including a marked dependence on the shape of the configuration. In the nonlinear regime, the value of Q for scale-invariant initial conditions is remarkably independent of evolution epoch, of scale, and of configuration shape, and depends on spectral index roughly as Q = 3/(3 + n).

Fry, J. N.↗

initMIP-Antarctica: an Ice Sheet Model Initialization Experiment of ISMIP6

Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.

ice sheet model↗

Singularities in the classical Rayleigh-Taylor flow: Formation and subsequent motion

The creation and subsequent motion of singularities of solution to classical Rayleigh-Taylor flow (two dimensional inviscid, incompressible fluid over a vacuum) are discussed. For a specific set of initial conditions, we give analytical evidence to suggest the instantaneous formation of one or more singularities at specific points in the unphysical plane, whose locations depend sensitively on small changes in initial conditions in the physical domain. One-half power singularities are created in accordance with an earlier conjecture; however, depending on initial conditions, other forms of singularities are also possible. For a specific initial condition, we follow a numerical procedure in the unphysical plane to compute the motion of a one-half singularity. This computation confirms our previous conjecture that the approach of a one-half singularity towards the physical domain corresponds to the development of a spike at the physical interface. Under some assumptions that appear to be consistent with numerical calculations, we present analytical evidence to suggest that a singularity of the one-half type cannot impinge the physical domain in finite time.

Tanveer, S.↗

Singularities in the classical Rayleigh-Taylor flow - Formation and subsequent motion

The creation and subsequent motion of singularities of solution to classical Rayleigh-Taylor flow (two dimensional inviscid, incompressible fluid over a vacuum) are discussed. For a specific set of initial conditions, we give analytical evidence to suggest the instantaneous formation of one or more singularities at specific points in the unphysical plane, whose locations depend sensitively on small changes in initial conditions in the physical domain. One-half power singularities are created in accordance with an earlier conjecture; however, depending on initial conditions, other forms of singularities are also possible. For a specific initial condition, we follow a numerical procedure in the unphysical plane to compute the motion of a one-half singularity. This computation confirms our previous conjecture that the approach of a one-half singularity towards the physical domain corresponds to the development of a spike at the physical interface. Under some assumptions that appear to be consistent with numerical calculations, we present analytical evidence to suggest that a singularity of the one-half type cannot impinge the physical domain in finite time.

Tanveer, S.↗

Seasonal Predictions with the GEOS GCM

A number of ensembles of seasonal forecasts have recently been completed as part of NASA's Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). The focus is on the extratropical response of the atmosphere to observed Surface Sea Temperature (SST) anomalies during boreal winter. The prediction experiments consist of nine forecasts starting from slightly different initial conditions for each year of the 15 year period 1981-95, employing version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric Global Circulation Models (GCM). The initial conditions are obtained from the NASA GEOS-1 reanalysis data. Comparisons with a companion set of six long-term simulations with observed SST (starting in 1978, so they have no memory of the initial conditions for the periods of interest) are used to assess the relative contributions of the initial conditions and SST anomalies to forecast skill ranging from daily to seasonal time scales. The ensembles are used to isolate the signal, and to assess the nature of the inherent variability (noise) of the forecasts.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

Dynamical predictability of monthly means

The concept of predictability which is conditioned by synoptic-scale disturbance instabilities is extended to that of time averages, which are determined by low-frequency planetary wave predictability, in an attempt to determine the theoretical upper limit of dynamical predictability of monthly means for prescribed, nonfluctuating external forcings. Sixty-day integrations of a global general circulation model with nine different initial conditions but identical boundary conditions of sea surface temperatures, snow, sea ice and soil moisture are carried out, where the rms vector wind error between the observed initial conditions is greater than 15 m/sec. It is found that while the variances among the first 30-day means, predicted from mostly different initial conditions, are significantly different from the variances due to random perturbations in the initial conditions, variances for days 31-60 are not so distinguishable. These results suggest that the evolution of long waves remains predictable for between one month and 45 days.

Shukla, J.↗

Numerical Studies of the Non-linear Vlasov Equation

The subject of this dissertation is the numerical integration of the initial-value problem for the non-linear Vlasov equation. The Vlasov equation is used to describe the dynamics of a "collisionless", one-dimensional, classical electron gas confined between two perfectly reflecting boundaries. Only the long-range Coulomb interactions of the electrons are considered; effects associated with the discrete structure are neglected. The numerical results obtained for non-linear Landau damping compare well with similar results obtained by Knorr. A general statement of the results on stable initial conditions is: As the degree of non-linearity of the initial conditions is increased, the deviation from linear Landau damping appears sooner and is more severe. In some cases damping was observed to cease. Curves showing the time dependence of the damping decrement are derived and compared with predictions of non-linear theories. New results obtained in this study include the observation that for strongly non-linear cases, the damping of the electric field causes an initially Maxwellian fo (v, O) to develop a peak in the neighborhood of the phase velocity; strong growth of the second harmonic is seen after fo (v, t) develops such a peak. Also new in this study is the interpretation of the development of a certain class of strongly unstable initial conditions as approaching an inhomogeneous equilibrium.

NUMERICAL INTEGRATION↗

Enhanced reduction of velocity data obtained during CETA flight experiment

A newly developed technique for enhanced data reduction provides an improved procedure that allows least squares minimization to become possible between data sets with an unequal number of data points. This technique was applied in the Crew and Equipment Translation Aid (CETA) experiment on the STS-37 Shuttle flight in April 1991 to obtain the velocity profile from the acceleration data. The new technique uses a least-squares method to estimate the initial conditions and calibration constants. These initial conditions are estimated by least-squares fitting the displacements indicated by the Hall-effect sensor data to the corresponding displacements obtained from integrating the acceleration data. The velocity and displacement profiles can then be recalculated from the corresponding acceleration data using the estimated parameters. This technique, which enables instantaneous velocities to be obtained from the test data instead of only average velocities at varying discrete times, offers more detailed velocity information, particularly during periods of large acceleration or deceleration.

Finley, Tom D.↗

Enhanced data reduction of the velocity data on CETA flight experiment

A newly developed technique for enhanced data reduction provides an improved procedure that allows least squares minimization to become possible between data sets with an unequal number of data points. This technique was applied in the Crew and Equipment Translation Aid (CETA) experiment on the STS-37 Shuttle flight in April 1991 to obtain the velocity profile from the acceleration data. The new technique uses a least-squares method to estimate the initial conditions and calibration constants. These initial conditions are estimated by least-squares fitting the displacements indicated by the Hall-effect sensor data to the corresponding displacements obtained from integrating the acceleration data. The velocity and displacement profiles can then be recalculated from the corresponding acceleration data using the estimated parameters. This technique, which enables instantaneous velocities to be obtained from the test data instead of only average velocities at varying discrete times, offers more detailed velocity information, particularly during periods of large acceleration or deceleration.

Finley, Tom D.↗

Extension of Liouville Formalism to Postinstability Dynamics

A mathematical formalism has been developed for predicting the postinstability motions of a dynamic system governed by a system of nonlinear equations and subject to initial conditions. Previously, there was no general method for prediction and mathematical modeling of postinstability behaviors (e.g., chaos and turbulence) in such a system. The formalism of nonlinear dynamics does not afford means to discriminate between stable and unstable motions: an additional stability analysis is necessary for such discrimination. However, an additional stability analysis does not suggest any modifications of a mathematical model that would enable the model to describe postinstability motions efficiently. The most important type of instability that necessitates a postinstability description is associated with positive Lyapunov exponents. Such an instability leads to exponential growth of small errors in initial conditions or, equivalently, exponential divergence of neighboring trajectories. The development of the present formalism was undertaken in an effort to remove positive Lyapunov exponents. The means chosen to accomplish this is coupling of the governing dynamical equations with the corresponding Liouville equation that describes the evolution of the flow of error probability. The underlying idea is to suppress the divergences of different trajectories that correspond to different initial conditions, without affecting a target trajectory, which is one that starts with prescribed initial conditions.

Zak, Michail↗

Nonlinear system controller design based on domain of attaction: An application to CELSS analysis and control

Nonlinear system controller design based on the domain of attraction is presented. This is particularly suited to investigating Closed Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) models. In particular, the dynamic consequences of changes in the waste storage capacity and system mass, and how information is used for control in CELSS models are examined. The models' high dimensionality and nonlinear state equations make them difficult to analyze by any other technique. The domain of attraction is the region in initial conditions that tend toward an attractor and it is delineated by randomly selecting initial conditions from the region of state space being investigated. Error analysis is done by repeating the domain simulations with independent samples. A refinement of this region is the domain of performance which is the region of initial conditions meeting a performance criteria. In nonlinear systems, local stability does not insure stability over a larger region. The domain of attraction marks out this stability region; hence, it can be considered a measure of a nonlinear system's ability to recovery from state perturbations. Considering random perturbations, the minimum radius of the domain is a measure of the magnitude of perturbations for which recovery is guaranteed. Design of both linear and nonlinear controllers are shown. Three CELSS models, with 9 to 30 state variable, are presented. Measures of the domain of attraction are used to show the global behavior of these models under a variety of design and controller scenarios.

Babcock, P. S., IV↗

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and its Impact on Northern Hemisphere Weather Predictability during Wintertime

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is known as the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability and has an important role in the coupled-atmosphere system. This study used twin numerical model experiments to investigate the influence of the MJO activity on weather predictability in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard laboratory for the Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model was first used in a 10-yr simulation with fixed climatological SSTs to generate a validation data set as well as to select initial conditions for active MJO periods and Null cases. Two perturbation numerical experiments were performed for the 75 cases selected [(4 MJO phases + Null phase) _ 15 initial conditions in each]. For each alternative initial condition, the model was integrated for 90 days. Mean anomaly correlations in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (2O deg N_60 deg.N) and standardized root-mean-square errors were computed to validate forecasts and control run. The analyses of 500-hPa geopotential height, 200-hPa Streamfunction and 850-hPa zonal wind component systematically show larger predictability during periods of active MJO as opposed to quiescent episodes of the oscillation.

Jones, Charles↗