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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Integration of ultra-low coverage whole-genome sequences for reconstructing the evolutionary history of Galapagos giant tortoises

Genomic data from contemporary and historical samples often need to be coupled for evolutionary reconstructions of multitaxon complexes. However, the genetic data recovered from historical samples may result only in ultra-low coverage whole-genome sequences (ulcWGS; <0.15× depth), leading to inaccurate evolutionary inferences given a preponderance of missing data. Using the Galapagos giant tortoise radiation as a study system (Chelonoidis spp., composed of 13 extant and four extinct lineages), we assembled a novel methodological pipeline that removes potential noise introduced by the missing data and enhances the evolutionary signal from ulcWGS samples. We leveraged existing tools for phylogenomic placement (EPA-ng), population genomic structure (smartsnp) and admixture (Admixfrog, NGSadmix) to demonstrate that the evolutionary history of samples can be uncovered with sequencing depths as low as 0.008–0.139×. Importantly, these approaches do not use genotype imputation of the ulcWGS samples, which would require extensive reference datasets. Our application to two cases of extinct lineages of Galapagos giant tortoises, with and without references from the same lineage, demonstrates the general value of the approach. We confirm where the extinct lineages from San Cristóbal and Santa Fe islands fit into the Galapagos giant tortoise radiation, and that these lineages were evolutionarily distinct entities.

ancient DNA↗
DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heavy long-lived dark vector via a gluonic portal

We study a dark gauge boson Z′ that exclusively couples to the QCD gluons through higher dimensional operators. These operators are generated from integrating out of heavy ultraviolet resonances carrying both QCD and dark gauge charges. With SU(3)C gauge invariance, charge and parity symmetries preserved, we find that the leading effective operators are restricted to have the form of Z′GGG and Z′Z′GG at dimension-eight, which can naturally render the Z′ particle long-lived, and serve as a viable dark matter candidate. We investigate the phenomenology of these operators with both collider experiments and cosmological observation, without and with the assumption that this dark gauge boson plays the role of the dominant dark matter component. For an unstable Z′, we show that depending on its lifetime, it can be probed by various observables up to ultraviolet physics scale around 10 9 GeV. For Z′ being dark matter, we find that $m_{Z'}$ ≳ 1 TeV is consistent with the thermal freeze-out scenario. In contrast, in the freeze-in scenario, the extremely small couplings leave the relevant parameter space largely unconstrained by current experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Challenges and Opportunities for HVAC + Phase Change Material Thermal Energy Storage in Buildings

Phase-change material (PCM) thermal-energy storage (TES) integrated with HVAC and domestic hot water (DHW) can shift a large share of building thermal loads. By flattening and shifting loads, PCM TES reduces peak electricity use, eases stress on local and grid infrastructure, and lowers costs. It can also defer costly upgrades to service panels, distribution, and transmission. Higher energy density relative to chilled or hot water storage makes PCM TES practical for small, space limited, and retrofit projects, while packaged HVAC-integrated systems expand cost-effective load shifting to commercial buildings that previously lacked options. Despite this promise, deployment faces barriers. This paper presents challenges, opportunities, and lessons learned from lab and field integrations of PCM TES with packaged HVAC systems. Key challenges include misalignment between default heat pump controls tuned for direct-to-load operation and TES charge/discharge objectives, PCM properties that diverge from manufacturer claims and evolve with cycling, and high integration and deployment costs with off-the-shelf products. These studies underscore the need for factory built, integrated systems that arrive as prepackaged modules with proven controls, reducing design and installation effort and delivering predictable performance across projects. The paper outlines steps to enable viable and scalable PCM TES HVAC and DHW systems, including 1) validated methods that can be used to characterize PCM properties and TES system performance, 2) supervisory controls that optimize charge/discharge scheduling, and 3) factory integrated packaging that eliminates bespoke field engineering.

Dutton, Spencer↗
DOE OSTI2026

Atomistic Simulation of Glasses and Amorphous Materials: Challenges and Opportunities for the Next Decade

Atomistic simulations have become indispensable tools for understanding glass structure, dynamics, and properties, yet persistent challenges limit their predictive power. This perspective examines three interconnected issues, namely glass formation procedures, interatomic potential development, and machine learning applications, which emerged from the 5th International Workshop on Challenges of Atomistic Simulations of Glasses and Amorphous Materials. We identify convergent community priorities for (i) standardized validation protocols, (ii) curated benchmark datasets with complete metadata, and (iii) open repositories for glasses. A systematic was forward is provided by a hierarchical validation framework for assessing the structural fidelity, property prediction, and behavioral realism of simulation techniques. Looking ahead, transformative advances are promised by the fusion of classical techniques with machine learning based approaches, for instance, by integrating swap Monte Carlo with machine-learning (ML) potentials, leveraging foundation models through transfer learning, and finetuning ML potentials with experimental data. Progress depends on the community committing to validated models, reproducible protocols, and sustained data sharing.

Krishnan, N. M. Anoop↗
DOE OSTI2026

Technoeconomic Studies for the Rorex Creek Pumped Storage Hydro Project: An Evaluation of New Pumped Storage Hydro in the Tennessee Valley Authority System

This report evaluates the economic viability of the proposed 1,200 MW, 23,365 MWh Rorex Creek Pumped Storage Hydro (PSH) plant that would be located near Pisgah, Alabama. In addressing this question, this study has developed processes, models and data that better value PSH from a utility perspective, more specifically a vertically integrated utility, enabling optimal PSH design and deployment. This study is designed to enhance TVA’s toolset in making PSH investment decisions and contribute to the design of a more cost-effective, stable future grid. These techniques can then be applied to a broader range of assets and utilities.

Cohen, Stuart↗
DOE OSTI2026

EvoDiffMol: evolutionary diffusion framework for 3D molecular design with optimized properties

Designing molecules with specific target properties remains a fundamental challenge in computational chemistry. While existing approaches show promise, most rely on simplified representations like SMILES strings or 2D graphs that lack essential three-dimensional geometric information. We present EvoDiffMol, a computational framework that integrates evolutionary algorithms with three-dimensional diffusion models for property-driven molecular generation. The method operates through adaptive evolutionary optimization, where population-based selection guides the generation process toward desired property landscapes. EvoDiffMol supports both unconstrained molecular design and scaffold-constrained generation that preserves fixed substructures while optimizing complementary regions. Comprehensive evaluation demonstrates exceptional performance, achieving the highest drug-likeness score (0.94) among all compared state-of-the-art methods while maintaining excellent validity, uniqueness, and novelty. Beyond single property optimization, the framework demonstrates flexible multi-property optimization capabilities, simultaneously controlling multiple molecular descriptors including synthetic accessibility, lipophilicity, topological polar surface area, and clinically relevant ADMET properties such as cardiotoxicity (hERG) and intestinal permeability (Caco-2). This adaptability spans from simple descriptors to practical pharmaceutical endpoints without requiring complete model retraining. The framework achieves precise control over target property values, generating molecules with properties closely matching specified targets for both single and multiple descriptors. Scaffold-constrained experiments preserve fixed molecular cores while maintaining effective property optimization. The three-dimensional representation offers advantages in maintaining structural validity during iterative optimization, with potential for geometry-aware applications in materials science and drug discovery.

3D molecular generation↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel digital lifecycle for Material‐Process‐Microstructure‐Performance relationships of thermoplastic olefins foams manufactured via supercritical fluid assisted foam injection molding

Abstract This research significantly enhances the applicability of thermoplastic olefins (TPOs) in the automotive industry using supercritical N 2 as a physical foaming agent, effectively addressing the limitations of traditional chemical agents. It merges experimental results with simulations to establish detailed material‐process‐microstructure‐performance (MP2) relationships, targeting 5–20% weight reductions. This innovative approach labeled digital lifecycle (DLC) helps accurately predict tensile, flexural, and impact properties based on the foam microstructure, along with experimentally demonstrating improved paintability. The study combines process simulations with finite element models to develop a comprehensive digital model for accurately predicting mechanical properties. Our findings demonstrate a strong correlation between simulated and experimental data, with about a 5% error across various weight reduction targets, marking significant improvements over existing analytical models. This research highlights the efficacy of physical foaming agents in TPO enhancement and emphasizes the importance of integrating experimental and simulation methods to capture the underlying foaming mechanism to establish material‐process‐microstructure‐performance (MP2) relationships. Highlights Establishes a material‐process‐microstructure‐performance (MP2) for TPO foams Sustainably produces TPO foams using supercritical (ScF) N 2 with 20% lightweighting Shows enhanced paintability for TPO foam improved surface aesthetics Digital lifecycle (DLC) that predicts both foam microstructure and properties DLC maps process effects & microstructure onto FEA mesh for precise prediction

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2026

Identification of potent inhibitors of JUN N-terminal kinases for treatment of endometriosis and associated pain

Endometriosis, defined as the ectopic growth of endometrial tissue outside of the uterine cavity, is an inflammatory and hormone-dependent disease that causes excruciating pelvic pain, infertility, and significantly decreases quality of life in affected patients. The JUN N-terminal kinases (JNKs) are a leading class of nonhormonal therapeutic targets that have been validated in preclinical models of endometriosis and in a Phase 1/2 clinical trial. Despite their therapeutic potential, JNK inhibitors with increased potency and specificity are needed to address the inflammatory pathology of endometriosis and to prevent disease progression. Leveraging a DNA-encoded chemical library collection of ~4 billion compounds, we identified lead inhibitor CDD-2428 and optimized derivatives, CDD-2728 and CDD-3013, with excellent binding affinity to JNK1-3 (K d = 0.12 to 3.7 nM), enhanced selectivity, metabolic stability, and cellular permeability. Crystallographic and biochemical studies confirmed that CDD-3013 exhibited superior kinase selectivity with improved efficacy compared to existing JNK inhibitors. In primary endometriosis cell models, CDD-2728 and CDD-3013 suppressed JNK-dependent inflammatory signaling, dampening pathways linked to pain, invasion, angiogenesis, and macrophage recruitment. In an endometriosis mouse model, both CDD-2728 and CDD-3013 reduced endometriotic lesion size, macrophage infiltration, and cellular proliferation, showing in vivo efficacy. When tested in a lipopolysaccharide-induced hyperalgesia model, CDD-2728 and CDD-3013 decreased markers of induced pain, as measured by changes in a dynamic weight bearing test and Grimace scores. These findings nominate CDD-2728 and CDD-3013 as potent, nonhormonal therapeutic candidates for endometriosis with broad anti-inflammatory and analgesic activity, addressing a critical unmet clinical need.

Madasu, Chandrashekhar [Department of Pathology an↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Nuclear Data Sensitivities in Prompt α-Eigenvalue Predictions of Delayed Critical Benchmarks

Alpha (α) eigenvalues, which describe the logarithmic time derivative of the neutron population in a multiplying system, are integral to time-dependent behavior and diagnostic applications. However, uncertainties in the evaluated nuclear data can significantly impact the accuracy of transport simulations for such quantities. This work explores the use of machine learning models to predict two key outputs, α-eigenvalues and keff bias, using input features derived from α-eigenvalue sensitivities to nuclear data. The criticality safety benchmark models used in this study come from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments. Three models, random forest, XGBoost, and NGBoost, are trained on both energy-resolved and energy-summed α sensitivities. For the α-eigenvalue bias prediction, NGBoost achieved the highest R 2 (0.9476) using energy-resolved features, while XGBoost performed best using summed sensitivities. In contrast, when predicting the keff bias, all the models showed moderate predictive capability (best R 2 ≈ 0.72), as the mapping from the static α-sensitivities to the static keff bias was less direct. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis was used to interpret the model predictions. Across both prediction tasks, the features associated with neutron capture [H-1 (n, γ)], uranium scattering reactions (such as 235 U elastic/inelastic), and actinide capture/fission reactions (such as 239 Pu and 234 U) were consistently identified as the most impactful. This highlights the key role of specific nuclear reactions and energy ranges in shaping both time-dependent and steady-state criticality behavior. These results demonstrated that α-sensitivities, despite being computed for time-dependent metrics, can provide valuable insights for predicting both α-eigenvalues and the keff bias. Moreover, machine learning models offer a promising pathway for uncovering important nuclear data dependencies and guiding future data evaluation efforts.

Nuclear data↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wettability of Two-Dimensional Carbon Allotropes from Molecular Simulations

Force-field Monte Carlo and Molecular Dynamics simulations are used to compare wetting behaviors of model carbon sheets mimicking neat graphene, its saturated derivative, graphane, and related planar allotropes penta-graphene, γ-graphyne, and ψ-graphene in contact with aqueous droplets or an aqueous film confined between parallel carbon sheets. Atomistic and area-integrated surface/water potentials are found to be essentially equivalent in capturing moderate differences between the wetting free energies of tested substrates. Despite notable differences in mechanical and electric properties of distinct allotropes, the predicted allotrope/water contact angles span a narrow window of weakly hydrophilic values. Contact angles in the range of 80 ± 10° indicate modest hydration repulsion incapable of competing with van der Waals attraction between carbon particles. Poor dispersibility in neat water is hence a common feature of studied materials.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Co-Location of Cellulosic Bioethanol and Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) Production Facilities for Targeted Scale-Up of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Production

Achieving aerospace industry net-zero emissions by 2050 requires rapid scaling of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. Leveraging existing infrastructure, proven technologies like Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and low carbon intensity (CI) feedstocks (e.g., switchgrass and miscanthus) can support this transition and help achieve near-term emissions reduction targets. This study evaluates the implications of lignocellulosic ethanol biorefinery siting and integration with petroleum refineries to produce SAF across 1000 sites randomly sampled from areas suitable for perennial grasses in the U.S. rainfed region. To better understand the logistics of material transport and handoffs, we integrated models of biomass harvest, transport, ethanol, and ATJ production in a stochastic framework based on Monte Carlo simulations to characterize SAF minimum selling price (MSP) and carbon intensity (CI), considering site-specific parameters (e.g., feedstock production, transportation, taxes, incentives). The results indicate trade-offs between MSP and CI across locations, with median MSP ranging from 7.9 to 12.8 USD·gal −1 and CI from −9.7 to 39.4 gCO 2 e·MJ −1 . Despite high estimated decarbonization costs (580 USD·tonCO 2 e −1 ), our results indicate that site-specific deployment of ATJ with low-CI feedstocks can improve sustainability outcomes. The framework provides a systematic approach to assess cost and sustainability trade-offs across locations, considering the end-to-end supply chain and supporting an informed investment in SAF production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

NanoPSD: A software for automatic detection of Nano-Particle Shape Distribution in electron microscopy images

Accurate quantification of the size and morphology of nanoparticles from electron microscopy (EM) images is essential to understand growth mechanisms, surface reactivity, and functional behavior in nanoscale materials. Manual analysis remains slow, subjective, and difficult to reproduce in large datasets. We introduce NanoPSD (Nano-Particle Shape Distribution), an open-source and fully automated framework for quantitative particle detection and morphology analysis from EM images. NanoPSD integrates adaptive contrast enhancement, polarity-agnostic scale-bar detection, Optical Character Recognition (OCR)-based calibration, and classical segmentation via Otsu thresholding with morphological refinement. Particle contours are used to extract geometric descriptors, including equivalent circular diameter, aspect ratio, circularity, and solidity, enabling automated classification into spherical, rod-like, and aggregate morphologies. The framework supports both single-image and batch processing, generating publication-quality visualizations, LaTeX-ready tables, and structured comma-separated values (CSV) datasets. As a demonstration, we applied NanoPSD to plasma-synthesized nanoparticle samples diagnosed via transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The code produced statistically robust size and morphology distributions spanning a few to tens of nanometers with minimal user supervision. The pipeline demonstrates high reproducibility and scalability, processing large image collections with consistent calibration and output formatting. Its modular design enables seamless integration of future deep-learning-based segmentation models, providing a pathway toward intelligent, data-driven electron microscopy analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Overview of IMPACT Data Acquisition System and Data Reduction Process

This report documents the development of the data acquisition system (DAS) and data reduction methodologies for the Irradiated Material Property Accelerated Characterization Test (IMPACT) experiment at the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). The IMPACT experiment is designed to enable in-pile measurement of thermal conductivity in metallic nuclear fuels, specifically U-10Zr, using an instrumented thermal conductivity probe. The DAS supports both passive temperature monitoring and active thermal interrogation of the probe through controlled AC and DC excitation. Significant modifications to laboratory-scale systems were required to accommodate the higher resistance paths associated with the in-pile application. Custom electronics and relay-controlled measurement sequencing were developed to enable the measurement and sufficient power delivery to the sensing region. A reduced-order, axisymmetric thermal model based on the thermal quadrupoles method is presented to support data interpretation. This model enables efficient evaluation of transient heat transfer behavior and facilitates solution of the inverse problem required to extract thermal properties from measured signals. Multiple boundary condition formulations are discussed to address varying experimental time scales and geometries. Additionally, machine learning techniques are introduced to support data reduction and improve confidence in inverse solutions. Convolutional neural networks are applied to identify the presence of gas gaps and other evolving geometric features that significantly impact thermal response during irradiation. These efforts contribute to the broader integration of digital twin frameworks and real-time modeling capabilities within the Advanced Fuels Campaign.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Final Report: Process Intensification of Hydrogen Production through Sorption-Enhanced Gasification of Biomass

The University of Utah, in partnership with Idaho National Laboratory (INL), evaluated Sorption-Enhanced Gasification (SEG) as a transformative pathway for producing hydrogen with the potential for negative CO 2 emissions. SEG integrates gasification, water-gas shift, and in-situ carbon capture within a dual fluidized bed reactor to enable efficient clean hydrogen production. Key challenges related to biomass variability and process complexity were addressed through feedstock engineering, reaction optimization, and process validation. A co-pelletized biomass–limestone feedstock was developed to simplify feeding and introduction of makeup limestone. Kinetic and sorbent studies identified optimal operating conditions and confirmed the suitability of low-cost limestone, while catalysts were developed to reduce tar formation. Reactor modeling and techno-economic analysis indicated that SEG can achieve competitive hydrogen production costs, particularly when combined with carbon incentives, supporting its potential for scale-up and carbon-negative operation.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗