Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “integrated scenarios”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Examining transport and integrated modeling predictive capabilities for negative-triangularity scenarios

This paper investigates the predictive capabilities of TGYRO and TGLF models in assessing the performance of negative triangularity (NT) plasmas compared to positive triangularity (PT) plasmas in fusion devices. TGYRO predicts kinetic profiles, while TGLF analyzes turbulent transport. The study reveals that TGYRO reasonably predicts NT profiles similar to PT, although it overpredicts the high-power scenarios where there is increased experimental MHD activity. TGLF analysis finds reduced linear growth rates in NT and altered flux spectra relative to PT. Additionally, the TGLF SAT0 saturation model is observed to predict high-k transport and a reduction of particle transport with the electron temperature gradient. These findings are further corroborated by core-pedestal modeling using the Stability Transport Equilibrium Pedestal workflow, showing stronger confinement improvements in NT, particularly at higher power densities for the SAT0 saturation model. Furthermore, the study underscores the importance of accurately capturing turbulence saturation mechanisms for NT in order to project its performance accurately in fusion reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scenarios in IPCC assessments: lessons from AR6 and opportunities for AR7

Scenarios have been an important integrating element in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the understanding of possible climate outcomes, impacts and risks, and mitigation futures. Integration supports a consistent, coherent assessment, new insights and the opportunity to address policy-relevant questions that would not be possible otherwise, for example, which impacts are unavoidable, which are reversible, what is a consistent remaining carbon budget to keep temperatures below a level and what would be a consistent route of action to achieve that goal. The AR6 builds on community frameworks that are developed to support a coherent use of scenarios across the assessment, yet their use in the assessment and the related timelines presented coordination challenges. From lessons within each Working Group (WG) assessment and the cross-WG experience, we present insights into the role of scenarios in future assessments, including the enhanced integration of impacts into scenarios, near-term information and community coordination efforts. Recommendations and opportunities are discussed for how scenarios can support strengthened consistency and policy relevance in the next IPCC assessment cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

EAST steady-state long pulse H-mode with core-edge integration for CFETR

Recent EAST experiment has successfully demonstrated long pulse steady-state high plasma performance scenario and core-edge integration since the last IAEA in 2018. A discharge with a duration over 60s with β P ~2.0, β N ~1.6, H 98y2 ~1.3 and internal transport barrier on electron temperature channel is obtained with multi-RF power heating and current drive. A higher β N (β N ~1.8, β p ~2.0, H 98y2 ~1.3, n e /n GW ~0.75) with a duration of 20s is achieved by using the modulated neutral beam and multi-RF power, where several normalized parameters are close or even higher than the phase III 1GW scenario of CFETR steady-state. High-Z impurity accumulation in the plasma core is well controlled in a low level by using the on-axis ECH. Modelling shows that the strong diffusion of TEM turbulence in the central region prevents tungsten impurity to accumulate. More recently, EAST has demonstrated compatible core-edge integration discharges in the high βp scenario: high confinement H 98y2 >1.2 with high β P ~2.5/β N ~2.0 and f bs ~50% is sustained with reduced divertor heat flux at high density n e /n GW ~0.7 and moderate q 95 ~6.7. By combining active impurity seeding through radiative divertor feedback control and strike point splitting induced by resonant perturbation coil, the peak heat flux is reduced by 20-30% on the ITER-like tungsten divertor, here a mixture of 50% neon and 50% D2 is applied.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advancing representations of equity and justice in climate mitigation futures

THIS PAPER WAS PRIMARILY COMPLETED PRIOR TO THE AUTHOR JOINING PNNL AND NO DOE FUNDING WAS USED FOR THIS PAPER. In this work, we review how equity and justice issues in global climate mitigation scenarios are addressed within Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and propose a new research agenda to strengthen their integration in model development and application. We begin by examining prominent concerns at the science-policy interface. We introduce a typology of equity and justice limitations in climate mitigation scenarios, distinguishing among structural, methodological, and epistemological biases that shape what integrated assessment models can reveal at policy-relevant scales. Reflecting on these concerns, we propose a research agenda that describes new avenues of work and draws together distinct emerging initiatives. This agenda is based on the feasibility and depth of required interventions, from incremental improvements to structural reforms and alternative participatory approaches. Drawing on reflexive insights from integrated assessment practitioners, it addresses the operational challenges of translating justice concepts into metrics, including risks of reductionism, tokenism, and narrow definitions. Underlying this research agenda is a recognition that modeling communities must engage more critically with implicit assumptions in model design and use that have equity and justice implications. Achieving equitable climate futures will require transformative actions that integrate diverse justice concerns, advance sustainable development goals, and confront systemic inequities across both human and ecological dimensions. Although models will never capture all these aspects, they can be significantly enhanced to support more informed discussion and practical application. Our contribution proposes a way forward to achieving this goal.

Pachauri, Shonali↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying a Multisector Scenario Framework to Evaluate Past and Future Public Surface Water Supply Infrastructure Strategies in Texas

Datasets supporting the index model and scenario analysis used in evaluating surface water supply strategies across different water system types in Texas. These data underpin the scenario development and application of five key indicators: Water Availability Index (WAI), Water Quality Index (WQI), Energy Requirement Index (ERI), Water Treatment Cost (WTC), and Water Infrastructure Cost (WIC). The datasets are organized by system type—stream reaches (flowlines), waterbodies, and reservoirs—and include both raw and standardized index values. The integrated datasets also provide scenario classifications (original and adjusted) based on infrastructure and planning priorities, enabling comparison across Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Additional strategy-level data are included to support evaluation of state-level new reservoir projects in relation to cost and availability tradeoffs. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details. Descriptions of the datasets are provided below. Dataset(s) Descriptions Folder: Index_model_database.zip Subfolder: Stream_reach.zip Fl_wf.csv, Fl_wq.csv, Fl_er.csv, Fl_wf_wtcUV.csv, Fl_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Fl_allfac_wic1.csv, Fl_allfac_wic2.csvDatasets for computing WAI, WQI, ERI, WTC, and WIC for surface water systems classified as stream reaches (flowlines). Subfolder: Waterbody.zip Wb_wf.csv, Wb_wq.csv, Wb_er.csv, Wb_wf_wtcUV.csv, Wb_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Wb_allfac_wic1.csv, Wb_allfac_wic2.csvEquivalent index model datasets for waterbodies, reflecting hydrologic and infrastructure attributes specific to impounded natural systems. Subfolder: Reservoir.zip Rs_wf.csv, Rs_wq.csv, Rs_er.csv, Rs_wf_wtcUV.csv, Rs_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Rs_allfac_wic1.csv, Rs_allfac_wic2.csvIndex model datasets specific to regulated reservoir systems, incorporating both resource indicators and cost parameters. Folder: Integrated data.zip combined_merged_data.csv, combined_merged_data_scenario.csvDatasets integrating index model indicators (both raw and scaled) with scenario classifications, including adjustments reflecting SSP-aligned transitions and planning shifts. Folder: Additional data.zip wai_supplystrat_wic_merged.csvCurated dataset capturing proposed major reservoir-based municipal water supply strategies in Texas. Integrates site-level planning data with estimated capital infrastructure costs and water availability scores for comparative assessment.

geospatial↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Impacts of Renewable Electricity Deployment on Air Quality and Human Health in Southeast Asia Based on AIMS III Scenarios

This study augments the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III) by quantifying changes to air quality and human health that result from its renewable integration and transmission interconnection scenarios. Performing this analysis requires translation of the changes in projected generation from different power sector fuel sources in the AIMS III scenarios to changes in air pollutant emissions, developing what is known as an emissions inventory for each scenario and year evaluated. An emissions inventory represents who emits air pollutants, from where the pollutants are emitted, when, and how much of which air pollutants are emitted. With the assistance of the ASEAN Centre for Energy and leveraging the best available in-region public data sources, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) team compiled a detailed inventory of power plants in the ASEAN region, mapping their PM 2.5 , sulfur oxides (SOx), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions. A new, first-of-its-kind, and user-friendly global air quality model, Global InMAP (Thakrar et al. 2022), is then used to transform the inventory of changes in emissions to changes in concentration of fine particulate matter. Global InMAP then maps the location of human populations in ASEAN countries to calculate humans' exposure to PM 2.5 and estimate excess PM 2.5 -caused mortality attributable to thermal generation sources, as modeled in the AIMS III scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap

Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2°C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%-88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Update on Microreactor Automated Control System (MACS)

Automation of control systems is expected to be important in the economic and safe operation of microreactors. There is a need to develop and demonstrate automated control for microreactors, along with the development of testbeds for this purpose. This report provides updates on the status of a microreactor automated control system (MACS) testbed developed to test control system automation. While a future goal is to demonstrate this system using a prototypic microreactor such as MARVEL, the present focus is on developing and testing within a non-nuclear testbed. The testbed, developed in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory, includes hardware-in-the-loop simulation and uses a Modelica-based model of a prototypic microreactor for use in testing control automation. Research to date at Oak Ridge National Laboratory has focused on the development of prototypic software for automating plant-level control under selected scenarios. Empirical testing on the integrated MACS testbed was performed to quantify key characteristics of the integrated testbed and to demonstrate the use of the software for automating the calculation and use of actuation setpoints for selected load-following scenarios. Ongoing research is focused on integrating additional control algorithms that utilize data from newly included sensors within the MACS hardware testbed, as well as demonstrating and assessing the performance of the different automated control algorithms on multiple additional operational scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep Learning Based Frequency Stability Assessment in Power Grid with High Renewables

Frequency stability assessment is one critical aspect of power system security assessment. Traditional N-1 screening method is based on the simulations of a few typical daily and seasonal operation scenarios. However, the increasing integration of inverter-based renewables and the retirement of conventional synchronous generators result in decreasing system inertia and growing complexity of system operating conditions. Selecting a few typical operation scenarios cannot cover all operating conditions, and the time-domain simulation of all operation conditions requires tremendous time. This paper proposes a more efficient frequency stability assessment method based on deep learning. The affinity propagation clustering algorithm is used to divide the dataset into different clusters, so the selected dataset for training can cover the diversified operating conditions as much as possible. Also, feature normalization is applied to both the training dataset and testing dataset in order to remove any unnecessary bias. Especially, trained model based on full dataset normalization has bounded error in the prediction. The case study on the reduced 240-bus WECC system demonstrates that the proposed method can predict accurate frequency nadir with limited training dataset. The deep learning model using the revised feature normalization can predict more accurate frequency nadir than that using the traditional feature normalization and has very small maximum prediction error.

affinity propagation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Survey of Use Cases and Scenarios on the Open Energy Data Initiative Solar Systems Integration (OEDI SI) Platform

The Open Energy Data Initiative Solar Systems Integration (OEDI SI) Data and Modeling Platform offers a comprehensive set of use cases tailored for power systems analysis. Each use case is centered around a specific power system analysis problem, supported by composite input data and reference algorithms. These composite input datasets are meticulously assembled using OEDI SI's data preprocessing tools, which integrate raw data from various sources. The primary objectives of the OEDI SI Platform include facilitating access to composite input data through widely accepted input/output formats and verified results. This accessibility enables power system network researchers and developers to validate their algorithms and showcase their applications' capabilities to the broader community. Moreover, the platform strives to promote reproducible, robust, replicable, and generalizable solar systems integration research.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways

Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes are posed to have profound impact on forests and consequently on the mitigation potential of forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant climate mitigation scenarios from five different integrated assessment models (IAMs) by showcasing the spatially explicit exposure of forests to fire weather and the simulated increase in global annual burned area. We provide a detailed description of the feedback from climate change to forest carbon uptake in IAMs. Few IAMs are currently accounting for feedback mechanisms like loss from fire disturbance. Consequently, many forestation areas proposed by IAM scenarios will be exposed to fire-promoting weather conditions and without costly prevention measures might be object to frequent burning. We conclude that the actual climate mitigation portfolio in IAM scenarios is subject to substantial uncertainty and that the risk of overly optimistic estimates of negative emission potential of forestation should be avoided. As a way forward we propose how to integrate more detailed climate information when modeling climate mitigation pathways heavily relying on forestation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models

Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.

Rouhette, Theo↗
DOE OSTI2023

LOCOMOTIVES - Comprehensive Impact and Cost Assessment Framework of Carbon Lowering Approaches for the US Rail Freight System

The goal of this project is to develop a tool to aid railroads and other stakeholders assess and approach the decarbonization of freight rail operations by identifying new, viable low-carbon energy storage and conversion systems for future locomotive systems and how they should be deployed on the existing US freight rail network. In the first quarter, the project focused on collecting data, establishing a simulation workflow, and engaging industry through the creation of the Industry Advisory Board (IAB). In the second quarter, the project focused on selecting fuel pathways and powertrain technologies, setting performance targets, conducting a techno-economic analyses, and developing the simulation framework that would serve as the backbone of the future toolhead. The third quarter involved developing an industry-oriented interactive dashboard powered by a five-step sequential framework, as well as holding industry advisory board meetings as per the initial technology-to-market plan. In the remaining project quarters, the NUFRIEND dashboard were fine-tuned with the help of IAB member feedback and in-depth scenario analyses were conducted to support the techno-economic analysis of energy sources. Additionally, dashboard documentation, project insights, and open-source code on GitHub were prepared and released. Throughout the project, the team completed testing and analysis of all model components, integrated all initial test scenarios, and conducted stakeholder engagement. Lower-carbon drop-in fuels can be deployed as admixtures and are considered uniform across the network at a desired penetration rate, while hydrogen and battery-electric technology deployment poses a more complex problem as they require significant investments to be made in the siting of refueling/charging facilities and the replacement of locomotive fleets. Thus, strategies for locating and sizing refueling/charging facilities on a railroad’s network to meet their energy demands were developed to inform deployment decisions. To address this challenge, the Northwestern University Freight Rail Infrastructure & Energy Network Decarbonization (NUFRIEND) framework presents a five-step sequential framework to select O-D paths, locate facilities, reroute flows, size facilities, and evaluate the deployment for alternative energy sources that require locomotive powertrains to be converted and new refueling infrastructure to be deployed. The NUFRIEND Framework is an industry-oriented tool for simulating the deployment of new energy technologies across the US freight rail network. The framework provides a comprehensive network-level optimization and scenario simulation tool for decarbonizing the freight rail sector, addressing the uncertainties surrounding technological developments by supporting sensitivity analyses for different operational and technological parameters through a transparent and flexible input module. It offers practical alternatives to diesel locomotives and can be applied for any railroad considering the specific network structure and freight demand, outputting evaluation metrics for the associated emissions and costs relative to diesel operations. A number of relevant simulation scenarios were run and analyzed for key insights on the value of different alternative technologies for freight rail decarbonization. The project developments and findings have been presented at numerous conferences and events.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Simultaneous ELM suppression and divertor detachment via synergistic boron powder and neon injection in EAST

A novel approach for simultaneous power exhaust and edge-localized mode (ELM) control is presented in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak discharges, which utilize an ITER-like tungsten divertor. Real-time injection of boron (B) powder and neon (Ne) gas overcomes their limitations encountered when used separately. Pure Ne seeding leads to a narrow operational window constrained by core impurity accumulation and H-mode to L-mode back transitions, while pure solid B injection (SBI) is insufficient for effective divertor cooling. In comparison, their combined use achieves a stable, stationary, ELM-suppressed H-mode with adequate power exhaust. This synergistic scenario features partial energy detachment at the outer divertor while maintaining good plasma confinement (H 98 ∼ 1) with minimal degradation. Two key features of this scenario are: (1) the SBI triggers a persistent Edge Harmonic Mode (EHM), which provides a crucial continuous particle transport channel, preventing Ne and tungsten/molybdenum accumulation without flushing out by ELM, and (2) the B + Ne mixture allows for active optimization of the radiated power profile. Core radiation can be reduced by substituting a portion of the Ne with B, leveraging their complementary non-coronal equilibrium radiation efficiencies. This combined B + Ne injection scheme presents a promising pathway toward integrated core-edge scenarios, offering the potential to minimize total impurity throughput while leveraging an actuator (powder injection) already being considered for ITER.

Boron↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and Assessment of Integrated Hydroelectric Power and Hydrogen Energy Storage

Environmental and regulatory constraints are increasingly posing challenges to the optimal operation of hydroelectric facilities. Hydrogen energy storage (HES) is well-suited to address these challenges.Using excess or low-cost hydroelectric power during off-peak hours to produce hydrogen can help reduce water spills and unlock opportunities for energy arbitrage. Moreover, the oxygen byproduct of electrolysis can be used to improve the dissolved oxygen (DO) levels in tailrace water. %, a key water quality metric for hydroelectric facilities.This paper presents an innovative framework for modeling and assessing the integrated hydroelectric-hydrogen system, considering subsystem constraints and coupling, benefits in spill water reduction and DO mitigation, as well as diverse hydrogen utilization, including re-electrification, blending with natural gas, and direct sales. Comprehensive case studies were conducted to assess the techno-economic performance of the integrated system in different deployment scenarios.

Energy storage, Hydrogen, Hydropower, Optimization↗
DOE OSTI2023

Alfvén eigenmode stability in a JET afterglow deuterium plasma and projections to deuterium–tritium plasmas

Abstract The performance of fusion devices relies strongly on the good confinement of energetic particles (EPs). Therefore, the investigation of EP transport by magnetohydrodynamic instabilities is one of the key aspects in the development of plasma scenarios. Alfvénic instabilities in particular can lead to significant losses of alpha particles that are essential for plasma self-heating. A so-called afterglow scheme has been developed to study the destabilization of Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs) by alpha particles and associated EP transport in the JET tokamak. In this work, the linear stability of AEs is discussed for the partial afterglow phase in a JET deuterium plasma discharge and for the full afterglow phase in a projected deuterium–tritium (DT) plasma. Thanks to recent upgrades in the tokamak transport code TRANSP, one can account for the contributions of different EP species to mode stability. Analysis of deuterium plasmas shows that AE growth rates are extremely sensitive to the energy and distribution of fast ions. An increase in fast ion energy can lead to more unstable AEs. In the afterglow phase of projected DT plasmas, it is EPs that mostly drive the AEs. However, the drive by alpha particles is comparable to that by beam ions and their contribution to the net growth rate might be hard to separate. According to the discussed projections, the destabilization of AEs might be ineffective because the background plasma damping significantly exceeds the EP drive. In this case, the development of an alternative plasma scenario that allows us to overcome such damping would be required in future experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Impacts of Renewable Electricity Deployment on Air Quality and Human Health in Southeast Asia Based on Aims III Scenarios

Exposure to outdoor air pollution is the largest environmental risk factor for death and disease worldwide, associated with millions of cases of excess deaths (mortality) each year. Although there are many pollutants in the air that affect our health, the most important class of pollutants is fine particulate matter, PM 2.5 , which are airborne particles of diameter ≤2.5 micrometers (µm). These particles are small enough to deposit deep in the respiratory system where they can then enter the bloodstream, traveling and causing damage to other bodily systems. Exposure to outdoor (ambient) PM 2.5 has been found to be the most important environmental risk factor for mortality in Southeast Asia, associated with 130,000 - 320,000 excess deaths in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries in 2019. Southeast Asia, especially its mega-cities, but also other areas, has some of the worst air quality in the world. Almost all human activity emits air pollutants. Fine particulate matter is both directly emitted and formed in the atmosphere through chemical reactions, the latter of which requires modeling to predict. Power generation is one of the major sources of air pollutants that lead to elevated concentrations of fine particulate matter, including in Southeast Asia. Fossil fuel combustion for power generation, especially coal but also diesel, is the main source of air pollutant emissions from power generation. While natural gas burns cleaner than coal or diesel, in the quantities combusted for power generation in Southeast Asia, it is also a significant emitter. This study augments the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III) by quantifying changes to air quality and human health that result from its renewable integration and transmission interconnection scenarios. Performing this analysis requires translation of the changes in projected generation from different power sector fuel sources in the AIMS III scenarios to changes in air pollutant emissions, developing what's known as an emissions inventory for each scenario and year evaluated. We then use for the first time a new global, reduced-complexity air quality model to transform the changes in emissions to changes in air pollutant concentration of the deadliest air pollutant for human health, fine particulate matter (or PM 2.5 ). The air quality model, Global InMAP, then utilizes the location of human population in ASEAN countries to calculate exposure to PM 2.5 concentration changes and translates that to estimates of excess mortality attributable to the AIMS III scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment

The expected growth in the demand for passenger and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as commercial low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper, we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an analysis leveraging various integrated assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). Furthermore, we find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the future transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2 °C by the end of the twenty-first century, models project that in 2100 bioenergy can provide on average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This makes up 9–62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100 (ranging from 2 to 44%), compared to 10% (0–30%) for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 306 to 776 out of 1,000 GtCO 2 ). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗