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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Computational Modeling of Graphite Degradation due to Molten Salt Infiltration and Wear

Molten-salt reactors (MSRs) represent a promising next-generation reactor design, with graphite serving as a moderator and/or reflector in several designs. However, due to limited experimental data and operational experience, a technical understanding of the structural integrity of graphite in molten salt environments remains incomplete. This report presents a modeling-based evaluation of graphite degradation in MSR environments, focusing on the effects of salt infiltration in fuel salt-based designs and surface wear in pebble bed reactor designs. The objective of this study is to enhance understanding of the structural integrity challenges posed by these degradation mechanisms and to provide a framework for assessing graphite behavior in MSRs. The first part of the report investigates the phenomenon of molten salt infiltration into graphite. This infiltration occurs when molten salt permeates the interconnected pore structure of the graphite moderator, driven by factors such as pressure differentials and the physical properties of both the salt and graphite. The infiltration process is influenced by characteristics of the pore structure, viscosity of the molten salt, and the interfacial energies between the graphite, salt, and the atmosphere within the graphite pore. Utilizing a coupled multiphysics modeling approach with Grizzly software, the study evaluates the stress induced by internal heat sources due to infiltration, which can lead to structural concerns. This evaluation is crucial for understanding how infiltration affects the mechanical integrity of graphite components in MSRs. The study considers the Molten-Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) graphite stringer geometry due to the availability of relevant data. Through detailed finite element analysis, the study examines stress distributions at varying infiltration percentages, revealing that stress levels increase with higher amounts of infiltration. Rare-event simulations, using the parallel subset simulation (PSS) framework, further quantify the failure probabilities under input uncertainties, with a user-specified failure metric. The PSS framework also identifies critical input parameters that significantly affect the stress values, including infiltration amount, thermal conductivity, and power density. Additionally, considering realistic reactor scenarios, the analysis was performed to account for the combined effects of radiation and infiltration, and modeling strategies on how to analyze new reactor designs or new graphite grades are discussed. The second part of the report focuses on wear mechanisms in pebble bed-based MSRs. As graphite fuel pebbles interact with the graphite reflector block, wear can result in material loss and the formation of surface defects, which may act as stress concentrators. A similar multiphysics modeling framework is employed to assess the impact of wear on the structural integrity of graphite components. This study considers a generic fluoride-cooled high-temperature reactor (gFHR) design due to the availability of comprehensive data. Worst-case scenario dimensions of the reflector blocks were analyzed under thermal and radiation conditions. Subsequently, wear in the form of idealized pits and grooves is modeled on the inner surface of the graphite block, with the maximum stress from previous simulations. The simulations show that groove-type defects are more detrimental than pits, leading to higher stress concentrations. Considering worst-case simulation scenarios and experimental wear rates, it was determined that the formation of a surface defect critical enough to affect the stress may not be possible in a gFHR design. Overall, the findings of this research contribute to the development of robust modeling tools for predicting graphite behavior under various operational conditions in MSRs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

MULTICOM2 open-source protein structure prediction system powered by deep learning and distance prediction

Protein structure prediction is an important problem in bioinformatics and has been studied for decades. However, there are still few open-source comprehensive protein structure prediction packages publicly available in the field. In this paper, we present our latest open-source protein tertiary structure prediction system—MULTICOM2, an integration of template-based modeling (TBM) and template-free modeling (FM) methods. The template-based modeling uses sequence alignment tools with deep multiple sequence alignments to search for structural templates, which are much faster and more accurate than MULTICOM1. The template-free (ab initio or de novo) modeling uses the inter-residue distances predicted by DeepDist to reconstruct tertiary structure models without using any known structure as template. In the blind CASP14 experiment, the average TM-score of the models predicted by our server predictor based on the MULTICOM2 system is 0.720 for 58 TBM (regular) domains and 0.514 for 38 FM and FM/TBM (hard) domains, indicating that MULTICOM2 is capable of predicting good tertiary structures across the board. It can predict the correct fold for 76 CASP14 domains (95% regular domains and 55% hard domains) if only one prediction is made for a domain. The success rate is increased to 3% for both regular and hard domains if five predictions are made per domain. Moreover, the prediction accuracy of the pure template-free structure modeling method on both TBM and FM targets is very close to the combination of template-based and template-free modeling methods. This demonstrates that the distance-based template-free modeling method powered by deep learning can largely replace the traditional template-based modeling method even on TBM targets that TBM methods used to dominate and therefore provides a uniform structure modeling approach to any protein. Finally, on the 38 CASP14 FM and FM/TBM hard domains, MULTICOM2 server predictors (MULTICOM-HYBRID, MULTICOM-DEEP, MULTICOM-DIST) were ranked among the top 20 automated server predictors in the CASP14 experiment. After combining multiple predictors from the same research group as one entry, MULTICOM-HYBRID was ranked no. 5. The source code of MULTICOM2 is freely available at https://github.com/multicom-toolbox/multicom/tree/multicom_v2.0 .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recurrent convolutional neural networks for modeling nonadiabatic dynamics of quantum-classical systems

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have recently been extensively applied to model the time evolution in fluid dynamics, weather predictions, and even chaotic systems due to their ability to capture temporal dependencies and sequential patterns in data. Here we present an RNN model based on convolutional neural networks for modeling the nonlinear nonadiabatic dynamics of hybrid quantum-classical systems. The dynamical evolution of the hybrid systems is governed by equations of motion for classical degrees of freedom and von Neumann equation for electrons. The Physics-Aware Recurrent Convolution (PARC) neural network structure incorporates a differentiator-integrator architecture that inductively models the spatiotemporal dynamics of generic physical systems. Here, we apply our RNN approach to learn the space-time evolution of a one-dimensional semiclassical Holstein model after an interaction quench. For shallow quenches (small changes in electron-lattice coupling), the deterministic dynamics can be accurately captured using a single-CNN-based recurrent network. In contrast, deep quenches induce chaotic evolution, making long-term trajectory prediction significantly more challenging. Nonetheless, we demonstrate that the PARC-CNN architecture can effectively learn the statistical climate of the Holstein model under deep-quench conditions.

Holstein model↗
DOE OSTI2021

Edge-localized-mode simulation in CFETR steady-state scenario

We report the EPED1 model and self-consistent core-pedestal coupling in integrated modeling are used to design the pedestal structure of the China Fusion Engineering Testing Reactor (CFETR) steady-state scenario. The key parameters, such as β p and q 95 , are based on the grassy edge-localized-mode (ELM) experimental database. In this work, we use the BOUT++ six-field two-fluid code to simulate the onset of the ELM in the CFETR steady-state scenario. The ELM size is around 0.2% in nonlinear simulations, which is in the experimental range of the grassy ELM discharges, 0.1%–1% observed in multiple tokamak devices. Linear and nonlinear simulations show that the dominant high-n ballooning modes peak around n = 40. Compared to type-I ELM crashing dynamics, grassy ELM crashing has a smaller initial crash and is then followed by three phases of turbulence spreading, which are dominated by multi-modes, a high-n mode of n = 45 and low-n mode of n = 5, respectively. In contras to type-I ELM, the perturbation of the high-n mode has a narrow width around ψ = 0.95, and magnetic island formation and reconnection occur only beyond ψ = 0.95, leading to a small initial crash. Mode–mode interaction in the multi-mode coexistence stage stops the growth of individual modes and reduces the transport of particles and heat, and these are the two reasons why the ELM size is small. In–out asymmetry of transient heat flux with a ratio of E out /E in = 3.5 is found during grassy ELM crash. The rise and delay times of the heat flux match the calculation from the free-streaming model. To evaluate the erosion of the divertor target, the energy fluence at the outer divertor target is calculated, which is 0.029 MJ m -2 , 5.5 times smaller than the tungsten melting limit 0.16 MJ m -2 . The calculated energy fluency still follows the experimental scaling law from type-I ELM experiments. The fluctuation eddies in the toroidal direction show a filament structure at the outer mid-plane. Parallel heat flux patterns with a toroidal mode number n = 10 are found at the outer divertor with an amplitude of 680 MW m -2 .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pattern-enhanced Resonant Soft X-ray Scattering for Operando monitoring of electrochemical solid-liquid interfaces

Unveiling interfaces at sub-nanometer scales is essential for advancing the understanding of complex chemical transformations. However, characterizing solid-liquid interfaces with high dimensional sensitivity and temporal resolution remains challenging, due to their dynamic nature and inaccessibility by conventional probes. Here we present an approach, Pattern-enhanced Resonant Soft X-ray Scattering, to overcome the challenges. Rooted in a “sample-as-optics” philosophy, this technique utilizes precisely engineered line-grating nanopatterns to modulate near-field X-ray illumination, coherently enhancing scattering signals from the line-gratings. We implement the method using Ni line-grating nanopatterns in electrochemical water oxidation. The periodic nanostructures serve as diffractive optical elements to reveal the Ni oxidation gradients and structural dynamics at the electrode-electrolyte interfaces. Finite-element simulations corroborate the observed trends by modeling variations in compositions and structures during electrocatalysis. Through integrating advanced sample design with coherent wave nature of soft X-rays, our approach opens accessible pathways to operando exploring chemical evolution and sub-nanometer dimensional variations simultaneously in electrochemical systems. This non-destructive method is efficient and element-specific, making it valuable for probing chemical and dimensional dynamics with appropriate modeling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Is the Adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Solar Photovoltaics (PVs) Interdependent or Independent? An Integrated EVs-PVs Modeling Framework

Transportation and residential energy consumption account for more than one-half of the overall energy consumption in the United States. Adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) can play a key role in decarbonizing the transportation sector, while the adoption of renewable energy sources (e.g., solar photovoltaics or PVs) could bring similar benefits to the residential energy sector and in turn support transport electrification. Although the market share for both EVs and PVs continue to grow, both these emerging technologies are deployed rather disjoint without considering the existence of potential similarities among users who own (or aspire to own) EVs and PVs. This might be due to lack of understanding of the behavioral interdependence in consumer preferences towards these technologies. To fill this gap in knowledge, this study utilizes data from the 2018 WholeTraveler Transportation Behavior Study to develop an integrated model system that explores EV and PV adoption behaviors. A structural equations model (SEM) is employed that incorporates direct effects as well as error correlations among the adoption behaviors for EVs and PVs. Model results indicate that the adoption behavior for both these technologies is indeed interconnected and significantly influenced by attitudes, values and personality traits. Findings from this research suggest that incentives (e.g., subsidies) that drive 'bundled' adoption of EVs and PVs could accelerate the adoption of both these sustainable technologies. The results highlights the need to consider transport and building energy efficient technology adoption behavior in a single integrated structure.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

ERAS: Enabling the Integration of Real-World Intellectual Properties (IPs) in Architectural Simulators

Sandia National Laboratories is investigating scalable architectural simulation capabilities with a focus on simulating and evaluating highly scalable supercomputers for high performance computing applications. There is a growing demand for RTL model integration to provide the capability to simulate customized node architectures and heterogeneous systems. This report describes the first steps integrating the ESSENTial Signal Simulation Enabled by Netlist Transforms (ESSENT) tool with the Structural Simulation Toolkit (SST). ESSENT can emit C++ models from models written in FIRRTL to automatically generate components. The integration workflow will automatically generate the SST component and necessary interfaces to ’plug’ the ESSENT model into the SST framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Molecular model of TFIIH recruitment to the transcription-coupled repair machinery

Transcription-coupled repair (TCR) is a vital nucleotide excision repair sub-pathway that removes DNA lesions from actively transcribed DNA strands. Binding of CSB to lesion-stalled RNA Polymerase II (Pol II) initiates TCR by triggering the recruitment of downstream repair factors. Yet it remains unknown how transcription factor IIH (TFIIH) is recruited to the intact TCR complex. Combining existing structural data with AlphaFold predictions, we build an integrative model of the initial TFIIH-bound TCR complex. We show how TFIIH can be first recruited in an open repair-inhibited conformation, which requires subsequent CAK module removal and conformational closure to process damaged DNA. In our model, CSB, CSA, UVSSA, elongation factor 1 (ELOF1), and specific Pol II and UVSSA-bound ubiquitin moieties come together to provide interaction interfaces needed for TFIIH recruitment. STK19 acts as a linchpin of the assembly, orienting the incoming TFIIH and bridging Pol II to core TCR factors and DNA. Molecular simulations of the TCR-associated CRL4CSA ubiquitin ligase complex unveil the interplay of segmental DDB1 flexibility, continuous Cullin4A flexibility, and the key role of ELOF1 for Pol II ubiquitination that enables TCR. Collectively, these findings elucidate the coordinated assembly of repair proteins in early TCR.

Paul, Tanmoy↗
DOE OSTI2023

The hidden structure of hydrodynamic transport in random fracture networks

We study the large-scale dynamics and prediction of hydrodynamic transport in random fracture networks. The flow and transport behaviour is characterized by first passage times and displacement statistics, which show heavy tails and anomalous dispersion with a strong dependence on the injection condition. The origin of these behaviours is investigated in terms of Lagrangian velocities sampled equidistantly along particle trajectories, unlike classical sampling strategies at a constant rate. The velocity series are analysed by their copula density, the joint distribution of the velocity unit scores, which reveals a simple, albeit hidden, correlation structure that can be described by a Gaussian copula. Based on this insight, we derive a Langevin equation for the evolution of equidistant particle speeds. In this framework, particle motion is quantified by a stochastic time-domain random walk, the joint density of particle position, and speed satisfies a Klein–Kramers equation. The upscaled theory quantifies particle motion in terms of the characteristic fracture length scale and the distribution of Eulerian flow velocities. That is, it is predictive in the sense that it does not require the a priori knowledge of transport attributes. The upscaled model captures non-Fickian transport features, and their dependence on the injection conditions in terms of the velocity point statistics and average fracture length. It shows that the first passage times and displacement moments are dominated by extremes occurring at the first step. The presented approach integrates the interaction of flow and structure into a predictive model for large-scale transport in random fracture networks.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

RCSB Protein Data Bank: supporting research and education worldwide through explorations of experimentally determined and computationally predicted atomic level 3D biostructures

The Protein Data Bank (PDB) was established as the first open-access digital data resource in biology and medicine in 1971 with seven X-ray crystal structures of proteins. Today, the PDB houses >210 000 experimentally determined, atomic level, 3D structures of proteins and nucleic acids as well as their complexes with one another and small molecules ( e.g. approved drugs, enzyme cofactors). These data provide insights into fundamental biology, biomedicine, bioenergy and biotechnology. They proved particularly important for understanding the SARS-CoV-2 global pandemic. The US-funded Research Collaboratory for Structural Bioinformatics Protein Data Bank (RCSB PDB) and other members of the Worldwide Protein Data Bank (wwPDB) partnership jointly manage the PDB archive and support >60 000 `data depositors' (structural biologists) around the world. wwPDB ensures the quality and integrity of the data in the ever-expanding PDB archive and supports global open access without limitations on data usage. The RCSB PDB research-focused web portal at https://www.rcsb.org/ (RCSB.org) supports millions of users worldwide, representing a broad range of expertise and interests. In addition to retrieving 3D structure data, PDB `data consumers' access comparative data and external annotations, such as information about disease-causing point mutations and genetic variations. RCSB.org also provides access to >1 000 000 computed structure models (CSMs) generated using artificial intelligence/machine-learning methods. To avoid doubt, the provenance and reliability of experimentally determined PDB structures and CSMs are identified. Related training materials are available to support users in their RCSB.org explorations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating ecosystem water use efficiency under drought stress: a case study of the Helan Mountain region, northwest China

Context Water use efficiency (WUE) is a fundamental ecological indicator links carbon assimilation and water loss in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding its responses to drought stress is essential for adaptive ecosystem management, particularly in climate-sensitive mountain landscapes. Objectives This study aimed to investigate drought-driven variations in WUE across major vegetation types in the Helan Mountain region of Northwest China. Specifically, we sought to identify dominant ecological drivers of WUE variability and to disentangle their relative importance and causal pathways. Methods We quantified WUE using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and the Drought Severity Index (DSI) data from 2001 to 2020. To examine WUE – drought relationships across contrasting vegetation types, we employed a spatially explicit analytical framework integrating Random Forest (RF) modeling, partial correlation analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM). Results Regional WUE exhibited relatively stable interannual dynamics, yet pronounced spatial heterogeneity that was strongly modulated by drought conditions. Vegetation properties, particularly Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), emerged as the dominant determinants of WUE, with NDVI alone explaining over 20% of its spatial variance in forest and grassland during non-drought periods. SEM analyses revealed that climate forcing influenced WUE mainly through indirect pathways mediated by soil moisture availability and vegetation structural dynamics, rather than through direct climatic controls. Among all regulating factors, LAI acted as the central control node governing ecosystem carbon–water coupling. In contrast, short-term climatic stress, especially atmospheric demand and drought duration, exerted weak or negative direct effects on WUE. Ecosystem-specific responses were observed, with croplands mainly regulated by soil water availability, whereas forests and grasslands showed more sensitive to atmospheric drought stress. Together, these results reveal a hierarchical control framework where soil–vegetation interactions mediate climate impacts on WUE, driving strong spatial heterogeneity in drought responses across mountain landscapes. Conclusions Our findings highlight the pivotal role of indirect drought effects mediated by vegetation and soil processes in shaping ecosystem WUE. The identified soil–vegetation–climate regulatory hierarchy provides mechanistic insight into landscape–scale drought sensitivity and supports integrated modeling approaches for evaluating ecosystem resilience and sustainable management in arid mountain regions.

China↗
DOE OSTI2024

3-D Geological Modeling for Numerical Flow Simulation Studies of Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. Here, this study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-stepping grid were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a three-dimensional (3-D) trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Can Large Language Models Understand Intermediate Representations?

Intermediate Representations (IRs) are essential in compiler design and program analysis, yet their comprehension by Large Language Models (LLMs) remains underexplored. This paper presents a pioneering empirical study to investigate the capabilities of LLMs, including GPT-4, GPT-3, Gemma 2, LLaMA 3.1, and Code Llama, in understanding IRs. We analyze their performance across four tasks: Control Flow Graph (CFG) reconstruction, decompilation, code summarization, and execution reasoning. Our results indicate that while LLMs demonstrate competence in parsing IR syntax and recognizing high-level structures, they struggle with control flow reasoning, execution semantics, and loop handling. Specifically, they often misinterpret branching instructions, omit critical IR operations, and rely on heuristic-based reasoning, leading to errors in CFG reconstruction, IR decompilation, and execution reasoning. The study underscores the necessity for IR-specific enhancements in LLMs, recommending fine-tuning on structured IR datasets and integration of explicit control flow models to augment their comprehension and handling of IR-related tasks.

Jiang, Hailong↗
DOE OSTI2026

From 2D to 4D: a containerized workflow and browser to explore dynamic chromatin architecture

Background Characterizing the physical organization of the genome is essential for understanding long-range gene regulation, chromatin compartmentalization, and epigenetic accessibility. Hi-C experiments generate two-dimensional (2D) genome-wide contact maps of chromatin interactions by capturing the spatial proximity between genomic loci, which reveal interaction frequencies but lack the spatial resolution needed to interpret the three-dimensional (3D) genome structure(s). Emerging evidence suggests that epigenetic regulation is closely linked to 3D genome architecture, and that structural changes over time (4D) drive key biological processes in development, disease, and environmental response. Thus, integrating 3D structure with functional data is critical for a more complete understanding of genome regulation. Previous work, most notably the 4DHiC chromosome modeling framework, has shown that physical multi-dimensional modeling approaches rooted in polymer physics and molecular dynamics can resolve these structures at biologically meaningful resolutions by integrating temporal Hi-C data with physical constraints to uncover dynamic chromosome reorganization. Thus, molecular dynamics simulations, constrained by Hi-C contact matrices, can resolve fine-scale structural changes and reveal functionally significant transitions in chromatin conformation. Results Herein, we present the 4D Genome Browser Workflow (4DGBWorkflow) and the 4D Genome Browser (4DGB). The algorithm is based on the 4DHiC method, and the containerized tool is an end-to-end workflow that can transform, filter, and view 4D epigenomics and chromatin datasets, allowing non-specialists to apply three-dimensional modeling principles to diverse datasets and experimental conditions. The software executes on a laptop running macOS, Linux or Windows. From input Hi-C files (.hic), the 4DGBWorkflow produces 3D reconstructions of chromosomes, integrates the reconstruction with track data (e.g., epigenetic marks, transcriptome profiles), and provides comparative visualization of the results in a single workflow. Conclusions The 4DGBWorkflow and 4D Genome Browser are open-source tools for comparative analysis and visualization of 4D chromosome datasets, including chromatin architecture and epigenomic signals. Automatic integration of Hi-C data with molecular dynamics democratizes the construction of time resolved 3D genome structures, simplifying complex simulations and data integration schemes.

3D Genome Browser↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-accelerated path integral molecular dynamics simulations of reactive organic electrolytes

Hydrogen bonded electrolytes that exhibit accelerated proton transport via sequential reactive hops have drawn interest for their promise in clean energy applications. Molecular dynamics simulations of these electrolytes offer the opportunity to uncover microscopic mechanistic details that could be used to design and tune the properties of candidate electrolyte technologies. However, accurately modeling the proton transfer reactions and transport properties that give rise to high charge conductivites in these electrolytes proves computationally challenging because of the need to perform lengthy condensed phase simulations, treating both the electronic and nuclear degrees of freedom quantum mechanically. In this paper, we demonstrate that such a modeling task can be efficiently achieved with the use of density functional theory (DFT)-trained machine learning potentials (MLP) to accelerate path integral molecular dynamics (PIMD) simulations. We highlight the practical utility of this approach by using it to benchmark how closely PIMD simulations employing different DFT exchange–correlation functionals reproduce the composition-dependent densities, diffusion coefficients, and electrical conductivities of mixtures consisting of imidazole and levulinic acid. Even with the speedup afforded by our MLPs, PIMD simulations remain quite expensive. Furthermore, in order to render PIMD more computationally tractable, we introduce and benchmark the accuracy of a ring polymer contraction approach that leverages a computationally efficient short-range MLP to accelerate our PIMD simulations by an additional factor of four.

Chemical bonding↗
DOE OSTI2021

The solution structures of higher-order human telomere G-quadruplex multimers

Human telomeres contain the repeat DNA sequence 5'-d(TTAGGG), with duplex regions that are several kilobases long terminating in a 3' single-stranded overhang. The structure of the single-stranded overhang is not known with certainty, with disparate models proposed in the literature. We report here the results of an integrated structural biology approach that combines small-angle X-ray scattering, circular dichroism (CD), analytical ultracentrifugation, size-exclusion column chromatography and molecular dynamics simulations that provide the most detailed characterization to date of the structure of the telomeric overhang. We find that the single-stranded sequences 5'-d(TTAGGG)n, with n = 8, 12 and 16, fold into multimeric structures containing the maximal number (2, 3 and 4, respectively) of contiguous G4 units with no long gaps between units. The G4 units are a mixture of hybrid-1 and hybrid-2 conformers. In the multimeric structures, G4 units interact, at least transiently, at the interfaces between units to produce distinctive CD signatures. Global fitting of our hydrodynamic and scattering data to a worm-like chain (WLC) model indicates that these multimeric G4 structures are semi-flexible, with a persistence length of ~34 Å. Investigations of its flexibility using MD simulations reveal stacking, unstacking, and coiling movements, which yield unique sites for drug targeting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling: Development of a National Capability

Water is one of our most important natural resources and is essential to our national economy and security. Multiple federal government agencies have mission elements that address national needs related to water. Each water-related agency champions a unique science and/or operational mission focused on advancing a portion of the nation’s ability to meet our water-related challenges. These diverse mission needs have engendered a rich and extensive base of water-related data and modeling capabilities. While useful for their intended purposes, these capabilities are not well integrated to address complex regional problems and overarching national problems. These major investments by a number of federal agencies, however, lay the foundation for an integrated hydro-terrestrial modeling and data infrastructure that will enhance knowledge, understanding, prediction, and management of the nation’s diverse water challenges. Creating a more seamless national hydro-terrestrial modeling and data capacity presents an enormous opportunity to advance operational as well as research capabilities leading to more effective water management. Advances are necessary not only in operational tools for forecasting but also in research to identify and resolve knowledge and data gaps that lead to unacceptable uncertainties in forecast outcomes. As such, close coordination across scientific, operational, and resource management communities is required. To this end, an interagency workshop on “Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling: Development of a National Capacity” was held at the National Science Foundation (NSF) headquarters in Alexandria, Virginia in September 2019, led jointly by the NSF, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and with broader interagency support provided through an interagency steering committee. This workshop provided a venue to bring together representatives of water-related agencies and their scientific partners (including university researchers) to initiate and refine a vision for a national Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling (IHTM) and data infrastructure and advance ideas towards its development. The workshop was designed to address three critical foci to advance the development of a national IHTM capacity: “Priority Water Challenges” around which to motivate and initiate development; Technical and methodological obstacles related to data and modeling; Organizational, structural, and cultural barriers that heretofore have impeded integration of capabilities across the federal and research landscapes. The following “Priority Water Challenge” domain areas represent targets for initiating development of the IHTM and were identified and selected in alignment with priorities of the administration’s Water Sub-Cabinet: (1) Nutrient loading, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms; (2) Water availability in the western United States; and (3) Extreme weather-related water hazards. These water challenges span agency mission boundaries and encompass a broad range of geographies, complex system dynamics and feedbacks, and critical processes spanning hydrological, climatic, and biophysical systems as well as land-use/land-cover, agricultural, built infrastructure, societal, economic, and decisional environments. These three Priority Water Challenges cannot be fully addressed without leveraging complementary and synergistic capabilities across multiple agencies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling

Future socioeconomic and climate scenarios have been explored using integrated assessment models (IAMs) to understand interactions between human development and global environmental change in the long run. However, differences in trade modeling approaches are an important source of uncertainty in the assessments, particularly for regional projections. Here, we explore the critical role of trade modeling in assessing the potential future of global agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions with a well-established IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We update the crop trade modeling framework in GCAM from a Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) structure with integrated world markets (IWM) to a newly developed logit-based Armington approach with segmented regional markets (SRM). The updates make it possible to study the sensitivity of model projections of future agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions to assumptions of the state and magnitude of global market integration. Our results demonstrate that assuming full global market integration, represented by homogeneous product modeling, neglecting economic geography, and excluding margins and tariffs, could lead to lower cropland use (i.e., by 115 million hectares globally) and terrestrial carbon fluxes (i.e., by 25%) by the end of the century. However, the results are highly heterogeneous across regions with more pronounced regional trade responses driven by global market integration. Our study highlights the critical role of trade modeling around product differentiation, economic geography, and regional trade parameterization in global economic or integrated assessment modeling. The results also imply that further reconciliations in trade model approaches could improve the convergence of regional results among models in model intercomparison studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗