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Resource Prospector Instrumentation for Lunar Volatiles Prospecting, Sample Acquisition and Processing

Data gathered from lunar missions within the last two decades have significantly enhanced our understanding of the volatile resources available on the lunar surface, specifically focusing on the polar regions. Several orbiting missions such as Clementine and Lunar Prospector have suggested the presence of volatile ices and enhanced hydrogen concentrations in the permanently shadowed regions of the moon. The Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) mission was the first to provide direct measurement of water ice in a permanently shadowed region. These missions with other orbiting assets have laid the groundwork for the next step in the exploration of the lunar surface; providing ground truth data of the volatiles by mapping the distribution and processing lunar regolith for resource extraction. This next step is the robotic mission Resource Prospector (RP).Resource Prospector is a lunar mission to investigate strategic knowledge gaps (SKGs) for in-situ resource utilization (ISRU). The mission is proposed to land in the lunar south pole near a permanently shadowed crater. The landing site will be determined by the science team with input from broader international community as being near traversable landscape that has a high potential of containing elevated concentrations of volatiles such as water while maximizing mission duration. A rover will host the Regolith Environment Science and Oxygen Lunar Volatile Extraction (RESOLVE) payload for resource mapping and processing. The science instruments on the payload include a 1-meter drill, neutron spectrometer, a near infrared spectrometer, an operations camera, and a reactor with a gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer for volatile analysis.

Lunar Crater↗

Resource Prospector Instrumentation for Lunar Volatiles Prospecting, Sample Acquisition and Processing

Data gathered from lunar missions within the last two decades have significantly enhanced our understanding of the volatile resources available on the lunar surface, specifically focusing on the polar regions. Several orbiting missions such as Clementine and Lunar Prospector have suggested the presence of volatile ices and enhanced hydrogen concentrations in the permanently shadowed regions of the moon. The Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) mission was the first to provide direct measurement of water ice in a permanently shadowed region. These missions with other orbiting assets have laid the groundwork for the next step in the exploration of the lunar surface; providing ground truth data of the volatiles by mapping the distribution and processing lunar regolith for resource extraction. This next step is the robotic mission Resource Prospector (RP). Resource Prospector is a lunar mission to investigate 'strategic knowledge gaps' (SKGs) for in-situ resource utilization (ISRU). The mission is proposed to land in the lunar south pole near a permanently shadowed crater. The landing site will be determined by the science team with input from broader international community as being near traversable landscape that has a high potential of containing elevated concentrations of volatiles such as water while maximizing mission duration. A rover will host the Regolith & Environment Science and Oxygen & Lunar Volatile Extraction (RESOLVE) payload for resource mapping and processing. The science instruments on the payload include a 1-meter drill, neutron spectrometer, a near infrared spectrometer, an operations camera, and a reactor with a gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer for volatile analysis. After the RP lander safely delivers the rover to the lunar surface, the science team will guide the rover team on the first traverse plan. The neutron spectrometer (NS) and near infrared (NIR) spectrometer instruments will be used as prospecting tools to guide the traverse path. The NS will map the water-equivalent hydrogen concentration as low as 0.5% by weight to an 80 centimeter depth as the rover traverses the lunar landscape. The NIR spectrometer will measure surficial H2O/OH as well as general mineralogy. When the prospecting instruments identify a potential volatile-rich area during the course of a traverse, the prospect is then mapped out and the most promising location identified. An augering drill capable of sampling to a depth of 100 centimeters will excavate regolith for analysis. A quick assay of the drill cuttings will be made using an operations camera and NIR spectrometer. With the water depth confirmed by this first auguring activity, a regolith sample may be extracted for processing. The drill will deliver the regolith sample to a crucible that will be sealed and heated. Evolved volatiles will be measured by a gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer and the water will be captured and photographed. RP is a solar powered mission, which given the polar location translates to a relatively short mission duration on the order of 4-15 days. This short mission duration drives the concept of operations, instrumentation, and data analysis towards critical real time analysis and decision support. Previous payload field tests have increased the fidelity of the hardware, software, and mission operations. Current activities include a mission level field test to optimize interfaces between the payload and rover as well as better understand the interaction of the science and rover teams during the mission timeline. This paper will include the current status of the science instruments on the payload as well as the integrated field test occurring in fall of 2015. The concept of operations will be discussed, including the real time science and engineering decision-making process based on the critical data from the instrumentation. The path to flight will be discussed with the approach to this ambitious low cost mission.

ISRU↗

Use of Nack Oriented Reliable Multicast (NORM) Protocol for Transport of Spacecraft Telemetry in Ground Networks

Frequently it is necessary to distribute spacecraft telemetry to multiple destinations on Internet Protocol (IP) networks. There are various methods of delivering this data, but when the data is high rate and there are many destinations IP multicast provides the best solution from a network perspective. However, IP multicast only supports the User Datagram Protocol (UDP) which is connectionless and unreliable. This nature of UDP and by extension the low priority treatment of UDP packets by some network hardware creates a difficult environment for distribution of high rate telemetry to a number of recipients over IP networks. NACK (Negative ACKnowledgment) Oriented Reliable Multicast (NORM) is defined by IETF (Internet Engineering Task Force) RFC (Request for Comments) 5740 in 2009 by B. Adamson et al. NORM provides a mechanism of retransmission and or forward error correction for UDP packets, potentially overcoming the limits of UDP for the transmission of spacecraft telemetry. Marshall Space Flight Center’s (MSFC) Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) manages the delivery of the International Space Station (ISS) payload science and health data. The ISS IP Ground Routed (IIGoR) network provides the delivery of the data from the ground stations to the control centers. HOSC personnel have been experimenting with the use of NORM on the link between the ground stations and the front end processor equipment in Huntsville, AL.

Baldwin, Patrick A.↗

Duplex Direct Data Distribution System

The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is developing and demonstrating communications and network technologies that are helping to enable the near-Earth space Internet. GRC envisions several service categories. The first of these categories is direct data distribution or D3 (pronounced "D-cubed"). Commercially provided D3 will make it possible to download a data set from a spacecraft, like the International Space Station. as easily as one can extract a file from a remote server today, using a file transfer protocol. In a second category, NASA spacecraft will make use of commercial satellite communication (SATCOM) systems. Some of those services will come from purchasing time on unused transponders that cover landmasses. While it is likely there will be gaps in service coverage, Internet services should be available using these systems. This report addresses alternative methods of implementing a full duplex enhancement of the GRC developed experimental Ka-Band Direct Data Distribution (D3) space-to-ground communication link. The resulting duplex version is called the Duplex Direct Data Distribution (D4) system. The D4 system is intended to provide high-data-rate commercial direct or internet-based communications service between the NASA spacecraft in low earth orbit (LEO) and the respective principal investigators associated with these spacecraft. Candidate commercial services were assessed regarding their near-term potential to meet NASA requirements. Candidates included Ka-band and V-band geostationary orbit and non-geostationary orbit satellite relay services and direct downlink ("LEO teleport") services. End-to-end systems concepts were examined and characterized in terms of alternative link layer architectures. Alternatives included a Direct Link, a Relay Link, a Hybrid Link, and a Dual Mode Link. The direct link assessment examined sample ground terminal placements and antenna angle issues. The SATCOM-based alternatives examined existing or proposed commercial SATCOM services that could be available in the 2005 time frame. The alternatives were evaluated and compared in terms of average daily system throughput and cost per bit. Throughput was estimated based on hypothetical scenarios supporting the International Space Station and polar orbiting missions. The feasibility of using standard TCP and a modified TCP was evaluated and risks were identified. An estimate of the TCP acknowledgment data rate required to support a return channel rate of 622 Mbps was developed using OPNET.

Greenfield, Israel↗

Advanced Active Thermal Control Systems Architecture Study

The Johnson Space Center (JSC) initiated a dynamic study to determine possible improvements available through advanced technologies (not used on previous or current human vehicles), identify promising development initiatives for advanced active thermal control systems (ATCS's), and help prioritize funding and personnel distribution among many research projects by providing a common basis to compare several diverse technologies. Some technologies included were two-phase thermal control systems, light-weight radiators, phase-change thermal storage, rotary fluid coupler, and heat pumps. JSC designed the study to estimate potential benefits from these various proposed and under-development thermal control technologies for five possible human missions early in the next century. The study compared all the technologies to a baseline mission using mass as a basis. Each baseline mission assumed an internal thermal control system; an external thermal control system; and aluminum, flow-through radiators. Solar vapor compression heat pumps and light-weight radiators showed the greatest promise as general advanced thermal technologies which can be applied across a range of missions. This initial study identified several other promising ATCS technologies which offer mass savings and other savings compared to traditional thermal control systems. Because the study format compares various architectures with a commonly defined baseline, it is versatile and expandable, and is expected to be updated as needed.

Hanford, Anthony J.↗

NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

NASA's mission is to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research. To help enable existing and future programs to pursue this mission, NASA has established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) to proactively identify, analyze, and communicate environmental regulatory risks to the NASA community. The RRAC PC is chartered to evaluate the risks posed to NASA Programs and facilities by environmentally related drivers. The RRAC PC focuses on emerging environmental regulations, as well as risks related to operational changes that can trigger existing environmental requirements. Changing regulations have the potential to directly affect program activities. For example, regulatory changes can restrict certain activities or operations by mandating changes in how operations may be done or limiting where or how certain operations can take place. Regulatory changes also can directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Such changes can result in NASA undertaking material replacement efforts. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented several strategies for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA Programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the lessons learned through establishing the RRAC PC, the process by which the RRAC PC monitors and distributes information about emerging regulatory requirements, and the cross-Agency cooperation that is vital to supporting NASA's mission.

Duda, Kristen↗

NASA's Agency-wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

NASA's mission is to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research. To help enable existing and future programs to pursue this mission, NASA has established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) to proactively identify, analyze, and communicate environmental regulatory risks to the NASA community. The RRAC PC is chartered to evaluate the risks posed to NASA Programs and facilities by environmentally related drivers. The RRAC PC focuses on emerging environmental regulations, as well as risks related to operational changes that can trigger existing environmental requirements. Changing regulations have the potential to directly affect program activities. For example, regulatory changes can restrict certain activities or operations by mandating changes in how operations may be done or limiting where or how certain operations can take place. Regulatory changes also can directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage aPi'iications of certain materials. Such changes can result in NASA undertaking material replacement efforts. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented several strategies for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA Programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the lessons learned through establishing the RRAC PC, the process by which the RRAC PC monitors and distributes information about emerging regulatory requirements, and the cross-Agency cooperation that is vital to supporting NASA's mission.

Duda, Kristen↗

Learning Without Boundaries: A NASA - National Guard Bureau Distance Learning Partnership

With a variety of high-quality live interactive educational programs originating at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas and other space and research centers, the US space agency NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) has a proud track record of connecting with students throughout the world and stimulating their creativity and collaborative skills by teaching them underlying scientific and technological underpinnings of space exploration. However, NASA desires to expand its outreach capability for this type of interactive instruction. In early 2002, NASA and the National Guard Bureau -- using the Guard's nationwide system of state-ofthe-art classrooms and high bandwidth network -- began a collaboration to extend the reach of NASA content and educational programs to more of America's young people. Already, hundreds of elementary, middle, and high school students have visited Guard e-Learning facilities and participated in interactive NASA learning events. Topics have included experimental flight, satellite imagery-interpretation, and Mars exploration. Through this partnership, NASA and the National Guard are enabling local school systems throughout the United States (and, increasingly, the world) to use the excitement of space flight to encourage their students to become passionate about the possibility of one day serving as scientists, mathematicians, technologists, and engineers. At the 54th International Astronautical Conference MAJ Stephan Picard, the guiding visionary behind the Guard's partnership with NASA, and Chris Chilelli, an educator and senior instructional designer at NASA, will share with attendees background on NASA's educational products and the National Guard's distributed learning network; will discuss the unique opportunity this partnership already has provided students and teachers throughout the United States; will offer insights into the formation by government entities of e-Learning partnerships with one another; and will suggest a possible future for the NASA - National Guard Bureau partnership, one potentially to include live multi-party interaction of hundreds of students in several countries with astronauts, scientists, engineers and designers. To inspire the next generation of explorers as only NASA can!

Anderson, Susan H.↗

Analysis of the Latitudinal Variability of Tropospheric Ozone in the Arctic Using the Large Number of Aircraft and Ozonesonde Observations in Early Summer 2008

The goals of the paper are to: (1) present tropospheric ozone (O3) climatologies in summer 2008 based on a large amount of measurements, during the International Polar Year when the Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements, and Models of Climate Chemistry, Aerosols, and Transport (POLARCAT) campaigns were conducted (2) investigate the processes that determine O3 concentrations in two different regions (Canada and Greenland) that were thoroughly studied using measurements from 3 aircraft and 7 ozonesonde stations. This paper provides an integrated analysis of these observations and the discussion of the latitudinal and vertical variability of tropospheric ozone north of 55oN during this period is performed using a regional model (WFR-Chem). Ozone, CO and potential vorticity (PV) distributions are extracted from the simulation at the measurement locations. The model is able to reproduce the O3 latitudinal and vertical variability but a negative O3 bias of 6-15 ppbv is found in the free troposphere over 4 km, especially over Canada. Ozone average concentrations are of the order of 65 ppbv at altitudes above 4 km both over Canada and Greenland, while they are less than 50 ppbv in the lower troposphere. The relative influence of stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) and of ozone production related to the local biomass burning (BB) emissions is discussed using differences between average values of O3, CO and PV for Southern and Northern Canada or Greenland and two vertical ranges in the troposphere: 0-4 km and 4-8 km. For Canada, the model CO distribution and the weak correlation ( 30) of O3 and PV suggests that stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) is not the major contribution to average tropospheric ozone at latitudes less than 70oN, due to the fact that local biomass burning (BB) emissions were significant during the 2008 summer period. Conversely over Greenland, significant STE is found according to the better O3 versus PV correlation ( 40) and the higher 75th PV percentile. A weak negative latitudinal summer ozone gradient -6 to -8 ppbv is found over Canada in the mid troposphere between 4 and 8 km. This is attributed to an efficient O3 photochemical production due to the BB emissions at latitudes less than 65oN, while STE contribution is more homogeneous in the latitude range 55oN to 70oN. A positive ozone latitudinal gradient of 12 ppbv is observed in the same altitude range over Greenland not because of an increasing latitudinal influence of STE, but because of different long range transport from multiple mid-latitude sources (North America, Europe and even Asia for latitudes higher than 77oN).

climatologies↗

Cometary implications of the internal energy distributions of the C2 and C3 radicals produced in the photolysis of the C2H and C3H2

The C2 and C3 radicals are prominent emission in the visible region of cometary spectra. Observational evidence exists that suggests these radicals are formed as granddaughter fragments in the photolysis of more stable molecules. Likely candidates for these parent molecules ar C2H2, C3H4 (allene), and CH3C2H (propyne). Recent laboratory studies were performed on all of these parent molecules and they indicate that they can indeed produce the observed cometary radicals. In the case of C2H2, the laboratory evidence suggest that C2 is formed via the following mechanisms: (1) C2H2 + photon(193 nm) yields C2H + H; and (2) C2H + photon(193 nm) yields C2 + H. Evidence is presented to show that the C2 radical produced in the second reaction occurs in a variety of electronic, vibrational, and rotational states. It is argued that this is a result of conical intersections in the potential energy curves and the density of states associated with these curves. Since this is a property of the C2H radical similar initial product state distributions are expected to occur in comets. This means that any models of the C2 emission may have to start off with rotationally excited C2 radicals in both the singlet and the triplet manifolds. When C3H4 (allene) and CH3C2H (propyne) were photolyzed, the C3 radical is formed. In the allene case, laboratory evidence shows that the C3 radical is formed via the following mechanism: (1) C3H4 + photon(193 nm) yields C3H2 + H2; and (2) C3H2 + photon(193 nm) yields C3 + H2. More C3 is formed in the case of allene than in the propyne case, even though the absorption cross section for propyne is a factor of 2 larger. This suggests that competing dissociation pathways are present during the photolysis of propyne that are not available to allene. The observed quantum state distributions of the C3 product were the same for both parent molecules, indicating that the same intermediate state is involved. These observations can be understood if the excited propyne formed in the initial absorption step isomerizes to excited allene before it dissociates to the same daughter compound. This postulate was tested by comparing RRKM calculations of the isomerization rate of excited propyne versus the decomposition rate to other products.

Jackson, William M.↗

Advanced single crystal for SSME turbopumps

The objective of this program was to evaluate the influence of high thermal gradient casting, hot isostatic pressing (HIP) and alternate heat treatments on the microstructure and mechanical properties of a single crystal nickel base superalloy. The alloy chosen for the study was PWA 1480, a well characterized, commercial alloy which had previously been chosen as a candidate for the Space Shuttle Main Engine high pressure turbopump turbine blades. Microstructural characterization evaluated the influence of casting thermal gradient on dendrite arm spacing, casting porosity distribution and alloy homogeneity. Hot isostatic pressing was evaluated as a means of eliminating porosity as a preferred fatigue crack initiation site. The alternate heat treatment was chosen to improve hydrogen environment embrittlement resistance and for potential fatigue life improvement. Mechanical property evaluation was aimed primarily at determining improvements in low cycle and high cycle fatigue life due to the advanced processing methods. Statistically significant numbers of tests were conducted to quantitatively demonstrate life differences. High thermal gradient casting improves as-cast homogeneity, which facilitates solution heat treatment of PWA 1480 and provides a decrease in internal pore size, leading to increases in low cycle and high cycle fatigue lives.

Fritzemeier, L. G.↗

NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS)

The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) collects, analyzes, and distributes de-identified safety information provided through confidentially submitted reports from frontline aviation personnel. Since its inception in 1976, the ASRS has collected over 900,000 reports and has never breached the identity of the people sharing their information about events or safety issues. From this volume of data, the ASRS has released over 5,500 aviation safety alerts concerning potential hazards and safety concerns. The ASRS processes these reports, evaluates the information, and provides de-identified report information through the online ASRS Database at http://asrs.arc.nasa.gov. The NASA ASRS is also a founding member of the International Confidential Aviation Safety Systems (ICASS) group which is a collection of other national aviation reporting systems throughout the world. The ASRS model has also been replicated for application to improving safety in railroad, medical, fire fighting, and other domains. This presentation \vill discuss confidential, voluntary, and non-punitive reporting systems and their advantages in providing information for safety improvements.

Connell, Linda↗

Observations and Simulations on the M-I Coupling of Bursty Convection

This final report summarizes the development and application of the first ever method to measure a proxy of the global merging along the solar wind-Earth separatrix. The ultimate aim of the project is to quantify the reconnection potential in the magnetotail and the fraction of it that is due to bursty bulk flows (BBFs). To achieve this goal, we developed the first method that allows the measurement of the distribution of reconnection rate along the polar cap boundary. The method was then applied to substorms and steady magnetospheric convection (labeled as SMC or convection bay) periods in order to quantify the strength of reconnection and the fraction of it that is contributed by BBFs in each case. Results of this research were reported in two manuscripts submitted to the Journal of Geophysical Research and presented at three international conferences. This report is organized as follows. In Section 2 we discuss the conceptual framework that is the foundation of the method. In Section 3 we describe the details of the method. In Section 4 we describe the application of the technique to substorms and SMCs. In Section 5 we summarize the results of this investigation and provide references to the manuscripts and conference presentations that report on the results of this project.

Sanchez, Ennio R.↗

NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS)

The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) collects, analyzes, and distributes de-identified safety information provided through confidentially submitted reports from frontline aviation personnel. Since its inception in 1976, the ASRS has collected over 1.4 million reports and has never breached the identity of the people sharing their information about events or safety issues. From this volume of data, the ASRS has released over 6,000 aviation safety alerts concerning potential hazards and safety concerns. The ASRS processes these reports, evaluates the information, and provides selected de-identified report information through the online ASRS Database at http:asrs.arc.nasa.gov. The NASA ASRS is also a founding member of the International Confidential Aviation Safety Systems (ICASS) group which is a collection of other national aviation reporting systems throughout the world. The ASRS model has also been replicated for application to improving safety in railroad, medical, fire fighting, and other domains. This presentation will discuss confidential, voluntary, and non-punitive reporting systems and their advantages in providing information for safety improvements.

Connell, Linda J.↗

NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS)

The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) collects, analyzes, and distributes de-identified safety information provided through confidentially submitted reports from frontline aviation personnel. Since its inception in 1976, the ASRS has collected over 1.4 M reports and has never breached the identity of the people sharing their information about events or safety issues. From this volume of data, the ASRS has released over 6,000 aviation safety alerts concerning potential hazards and safety concerns. The ASRS processes these reports, evaluates the information, and provides selected de-identified report information through the online ASRS Database at http:asrs.arc.nasa.gov. The NASA ASRS is also a founding member of the International Confidential Aviation Safety Systems (ICASS) group which is a collection of other national aviation reporting systems throughout the world. The ASRS model has also been replicated for application to improving safety in railroad, medical, fire fighting, and other domains. This presentation will discuss confidential, voluntary, and non-punitive reporting systems and their advantages in providing information for safety improvements.

Connell, Linda↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

NOx Emissions Characteristics and Correlation Equations of Two P and W's Axially Staged Sector Combustors Developed Under NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Project

Two P&W (Pratt & Whitney)'s axially staged sector combustors have been developed under NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project. One combustor was developed under ERA Phase I, and the other was developed under ERA Phase II. Nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions characteristics and correlation equations for these two sector combustors are reported in this article. The Phase I design was to optimize the NOx emissions reduction potential, while the Phase II design was more practical and robust. Multiple injection points and fuel staging strategies are used in the combustor design. Pilot-stage injectors are located on the front dome plate of the combustor, and main-stage injectors are positioned on the top and bottom (Phase I) or on the top only (Phase II) of the combustor liners downstream. Low power configuration uses only pilot-stage injectors. Main-stage injectors are added to high power configuration to help distribute fuel more evenly and achieve lean burn throughout the combustor yielding very low NOx emissions. The ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) landing-takeoff NOx emissions are verified to be 88 percent (Phase I) and 76 percent (Phase II) under the ICAO CAEP/6 (Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection 6th Meeting) standard, exceeding the ERA project goal of 75 percent reduction, and the combustors proved to have stable combustion with room to maneuver on fuel flow splits for operability.

sector combustor test↗