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NASA NTRS1994

Multiscale low-frequency circulation modes in the global atmosphere

In this paper, fundamental multiscale circulation modes in the global atmosphere are identified with the objective of providing better understanding of atmospheric low-frequency variabilities over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. With the use of a combination of rotated principal component technique, singular spectrum analysis, and phase space portraits, three categories of basic multiscale modes in the atmosphere are found. The first is the interannual-mode (IAM), which is dominated by time scales longer than a year and can be attributed to heating and circulation anomalies associated with the coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere, in particular the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The second is a set of tropical intraseasonal modes consisting of three separate multiscale patterns (ISO-1, -2, -3) related to tropical heating that can be identified with the different phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), including its teleconnection to the extratropics. The ISO spatial and temporal patterns suggest that the extratropical wave train in the North Pacific and North America is related to heating over the Maritime Continent and that the evolution of the MJO around the equator may require forcing from the extratropics spawning convection over the Indian Ocean. The third category represents extratropical intraseasonal oscillations arising from internal dynamics of the basic-state circulation. In the Northern Hemisphere, there are two distinct circulation modes with multiple frequencies in this category: the Pacific/North America (PNA) and the North Atlantic/Eurasia (NAE). In the Southern Hemisphere, two phase-locked modes (PSA-1 and PSA-2) are found depicting an eastward propagating wave train from eastern Australia, via the Pacific South America to the South Atlantic. The extratropical modes exhibit temporal characteristics such as phase locking and harmonic oscillations possibly associated with quadratically nonlinear dynamical systems. Additionally, the observed monthly and seasonal anomalies arise from a complex interplay of the various multiscale low-frequency modes. The relative dominance of the different modes varies widely from month to month and from year to year. On the monthly time scale, while one or two mechanisms may dominate in one year, no single mechanism seems to dominate for all years. There are indications that when the IAM, that is, ENSO heating patterns are strong, the extratropical modes may be suppressed and vice versa. For the seasonal mean, the interannual mode tends to dominate and the contribution from the PNA remains quite significant.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

A Comparison between the TOPEX/POSEIDON Data and a Global Ocean General Circulation Model during 1992-1993

The TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric sea level observation during 1992-1993 was used to validate the simulation made by a global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) forced by the daily wind stress and heat flux derived from the National Meteorological Center operational analysis. The OGCM is a version of the modular ocean model with a horizontal resolution of 2 deg longitude and 1 deg latitude and 22 levels in the vertical. The model simulation is compared to the observation at spatial scales of the order of 500 km and larger. Only the temporal variations are examined. The variability is composed primarily of the annual cycle and intraseasonal fluctuations (periods shorter than 100 days). The basic features of the annual cycle are simulated well by the model. Major discrepancies are found in the eastern tropical Pacific, as well as the eastern North Pacific and most of the interior of the North Atlantic. The culprit is suspected to be the inadequate heat forcing and mixing parameterizations of the model. Significant intraseasonal variability is found in the central North Pacific and the Southern Ocean. The simulation is highly correlated with the observation at periods from 20 to 100 days. The spatial scales are larger than 1000 km in many places. These variabilities are apparently the barotropic response of the ocean to wind forcing. The results of the study provide a basis for future assimilation of the data into the OGCM for improved description of the large-scale ocean variabilities.

Chao, Yi↗
NASA NTRS2001

Flying the TRMM Satellite in a GCM

By incorporating the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite orbital information into the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU GCM), we are able to 'fly' a satellite in the GCM, and sample the simulated atmosphere in the same way as the TRMM sensors sample the real atmosphere. The TRMM-sampled statistics for precipitation and radiative fluxes at annual, intraseasonal, monthly-mean and seasonal-mean diurnal time scales are evaluated by comparing the satellite-sampled against fully-sampled simulated atmospheres. The sampling rates of the TRMM sensors are significantly affected by the sensors' swath widths. The TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS) sample each 2.25 x 2.25 degree grid box in the Tropics and subtropics about once per day, but at a different local time every day, while the Precipitation Radar (PR) and the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensor visit each grid box about once every three days and twice per day, respectively. Besides inadequate samplings resulting from sensors' swath widths, there is a large, systematic diurnal undersampling associated with TRMM's orbital geometry for grid boxes away from the Equator. When only one month of TRMM data are used, this diurnal undersampling can lead to more daytime samples relative to nighttime samples in one hemisphere, and more nighttime samples relative to daytime samples in the other hemisphere. The resulting sampling biases (3-6 W m(exp-2)) are very pronounced in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the subtropical land masses. The sampling errors in OLR monthly- and seasonal-means are less than 8 W m(exp-2) (5%) for each 2.25 x 2.25 degree grid box. The OLR monthly- and seasonal-means are not sensitive to diurnal undersamplings associated with the TRMM orbits and sensors' swath widths. However, this is not the case for total precipitation. Diurnal undersampling could produce errors as large as 20% in the Tropics and 40% in the subtropics, for the zonally averaged monthly-mean rain rates. The TRMM orbits sample each 2.25 x 2.25 degree grid box in the Tropics and subtropics 1-6 times for each hour of the day within a single season. The seasonal-mean diurnal cycles of precipitation and OLR are not well sampled for any one grid box. By either accumulating the satellite data for a long enough period, or averaging the data over a large area with a relatively uniform diurnal signal, the diurnal cycles of precipitation and OLR can be satisfactorily sampled. The effects TRMM sampling errors on the inferred tropical-mean hydrologic cycle and radiative fluxes are also evaluated. There are strong spurious oscillations associated with TRMM's orbital geometry, with periods of 23 days and 3-4 months, in tropical-mean daily and monthly precipitation. While the relative fluctuations of the sampled-OLR are negligible, the relative fluctuations of the sampled precipitation have magnitudes similar to those of the observed climate variability. Caution must therefore be used when applying TRMM observations of tropical-mean precipitation to interpret climate variations at intraseasonal and interannual scales.

Lin, Xin↗
NASA NTRS2001

Forced and Free Intra-Seasonal Variability Over the South Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by 10 AGCMs

This study examines intra-seasonal (20-70 day) variability in the South Asian monsoon region during 1997/98 in ensembles of 10 simulations with 10 different atmospheric general circulation models. The 10 ensemble members for each model are forced with the same observed weekly sea surface temperature (SST) but differ from each other in that they are started from different initial atmospheric conditions. The results show considerable differences between the models in the simulated 20-70 day variability, ranging from much weaker to much stronger than the observed. A key result is that the models do produce, to varying degrees, a response to the imposed weekly SST. The forced variability tends to be largest in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans where, for some models, it accounts for more than 1/4 of the 20-70 day intra-seasonal variability in the upper level velocity potential during these two years. A case study of a strong observed MJO (intraseasonal oscillation) event shows that the models produce an ensemble mean eastward propagating signal in the tropical precipitation field over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, similar to that found in the observations. The associated forced 200 mb velocity potential anomalies are strongly phase locked with the precipitation anomalies, propagating slowly to the east (about 5 m/s) with a local zonal wave number two pattern that is generally consistent with the developing observed MJO. The simulated and observed events are, however, approximately in quadrature, with the simulated response 2 leading by 5-10 days. The phase lag occurs because, in the observations, the positive SST anomalies develop upstream of the main convective center in the subsidence region of the MJO, while in the simulations, the forced component is in phase with the SST. For all the models examined here, the intraseasonal variability is dominated by the free (intra-ensemble) component. The results of our case study show that the free variability has a predominately zonal wave number one pattern, and has propagation speeds (10 - 15 m/s) that are more typical of observed MJO behavior away from the convectively active regions. The free variability appears to be synchronized with the forced response, at least, during the strong event examined here. The results of this study support the idea that coupling with SSTs plays an important, though probably not dominant, role in the MJO. The magnitude of the atmospheric response to the SST appears to be in the range of 15% - 30% of the 20-70 day variability over much of the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. The results also highlight the need to use caution when interpreting atmospheric model simulations in which the prescribed SST resolve MJO time scales.

Wu, Man Li C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Model Interpretation of Climate Signals: Application to the Asian Monsoon Climate

This is an invited review paper intended to be published as a Chapter in a book entitled "The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes and Teleconnections" Cambridge University Press. The author begins with an introduction followed by a primer of climate models, including a description of various modeling strategies and methodologies used for climate diagnostics and predictability studies. Results from the CLIVAR Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project (MMIP) were used to illustrate the application of the strategies to modeling the Asian monsoon. It is shown that state-of-the art atmospheric GCMs have reasonable capability in simulating the seasonal mean large scale monsoon circulation, and response to El Nino. However, most models fail to capture the climatological as well as interannual anomalies of regional scale features of the Asian monsoon. These include in general over-estimating the intensity and/or misplacing the locations of the monsoon convection over the Bay of Bengal, and the zones of heavy rainfall near steep topography of the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia, and Indo-China and the Philippines. The intensity of convection in the equatorial Indian Ocean is generally weaker in models compared to observations. Most important, an endemic problem in all models is the weakness and the lack of definition of the Mei-yu rainbelt of the East Asia, in particular the part of the Mei-yu rainbelt over the East China Sea and southern Japan are under-represented. All models seem to possess certain amount of intraseasonal variability, but the monsoon transitions, such as the onset and breaks are less defined compared with the observed. Evidences are provided that a better simulation of the annual cycle and intraseasonal variability is a pre-requisite for better simulation and better prediction of interannual anomalies.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Contribution of CEOP Data to the Understanding and Modeling of Monsoon Systems

CEOP has contributed and will continue to provide integrated data sets from diverse platforms for better understanding of the water and energy cycles, and for validaintg models. In this talk, I will show examples of how CEOP has contributed to the formulation of a strategy for the study of the monsoon as a system. The CEOP data concept has led to the development of the CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS), which focuses on the identification of model bias, and improvement of model physics such as the diurnal and annual cycles. A multi-model validation project focusing on diurnal variability of the East Asian monsoon, and using CEOP reference site data, as well as CEOP integrated satellite data is now ongoing. Preliminary studies show that climate models have difficulties in simulating the diurnal signals of total rainfall, rainfall intensity and frequency of occurrence, which have different peak hours, depending on locations. Further more model diurnal cycle of rainfall in monsoon regions tend to lead the observed by about 2-3 hours. These model bias offer insight into lack of, or poor representation of, key components of the convective and stratiform rainfall. The CEOP data also stimulated studies to compare and contrasts monsoon variability in different parts of the world. It was found that seasonal wind reversal, orographic effects, monsoon depressions, meso-scale convective complexes, SST and land surface land influences are common features in all monsoon regions. Strong intraseasonal variability is present in all monsoon regions. While there is a clear demarcation of onset, breaks and withdrawal in the Asian and Australian monsoon region associated with climatological intraseasonal variabillity, it is less clear in the American and Africa monsoon regions. The examination of satellite and reference site data in monsoon has led to preliminary model experiments to study the impact of aerosol on monsoon variability. I will show examples of how the study of the dynamics of aerosol-water cycle interactions in the monsoon region, can be best achieved using the CEOP data and modeling strategy.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

The contribution of CEOP data to the understanding and modeling of monsoon systems

CEOP has contributed and will continue to provide integrated data sets from diverse platforms for better understanding of the water and energy cycles, and for validating models. In this talk, I will show examples of how CEOP has contributed to the formulation of a strategy for the study of the monsoon as a system. The CEOP data concept has led to the development of the CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS), which focuses on the identification of model bias, and improvement of model physics such as the diurnal and annual cycles. A multi-model validation project focusing on diurnal variability of the East Asian monsoon, and using CEOP reference site data, as well as CEOP integrated satellite data is now ongoing. Similar validation projects in other monsoon regions are being started. Preliminary studies show that climate models have difficulties in simulating the diurnal signals of total rainfall, rainfall intensity and frequency of occurrence, which have different peak hours, depending on locations. Further more model diurnal cycle of rainfall in monsoon regions tend to lead the observed by about 2-3 hours. These model bias offer insight into lack of, or poor representation of key components of the convective,and stratiform rainfall. The CEOP data also stimulated studies to compare and contrasts monsoon variability in different parts of the world. It was found that seasonal wind reversal, orographic effects, monsoon depressions, meso-scale convective complexes, SST and land surface land influences are common features in all monsoon regions. Strong intraseasonal variability is present in all monsoon regions. While there is a clear demarcation of onset, breaks and withdrawal in the Asian and Australian monsoon region associated with climatological intraseasonal variability, it is less clear in the American and Africa monsoon regions. The examination of satellite and reference site data in monsoon has led to preliminary model experiments to study the impact of aerosol on monsoon variability. I will show examples of how the study of the dynamics of aerosol-water cycle interactions in the monsoon region, can be best achieved using the CEOP data and modeling strategy.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Aerosol Meteorology of the Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS Southwest Monsoon Intensive Study - Part 1: Regional-scale Phenomena

The largest 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) operation period within the Maritime Continent (MC) occurred in the August-September 2012 biomass burning season. Included was an enhanced deployment of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometers, multiple lidars, and field measurements to observe transported smoke and pollution as it left the MC and entered the southwest monsoon trough. Here we describe the nature of the overall 2012 southwest monsoon (SWM) and biomass burning season to give context to the 2012 deployment. The MC in 2012 was in a slightly warm El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and with spatially typical burning activity. However, overall fire counts for 2012 were 10 lower than the Reid et al. (2012) baseline, with regions of significant departures from this norm, ranging from southern Sumatra (+30) to southern Kalimantan (42). Fire activity and monsoonal flows for the dominant burning regions were modulated by a series of intraseasonal oscillation events (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, or BSISO). As is typical, fire activity systematically progressed eastward over time, starting with central Sumatran fire activity in June related to a moderately strong MJO event which brought drier air from the Indian Ocean aloft and enhanced monsoonal flow. Further burning in Sumatra and Kalimantan Borneo occurred in a series of significant events from early August to a peak in the first week of October, ending when the monsoon started to migrate back to its wintertime northeastern flow conditions in mid-October. Significant monsoonal enhancements and flow reversals collinear with tropical cyclone (TC) activity and easterly waves were also observed. Islands of the eastern MC, including Sulawesi, Java, and Timor, showed less sensitivity to monsoonal variation, with slowly increasing fire activity that also peaked in early October but lingered into November. Interestingly, even though fire counts were middling, resultant AERONET 500nm aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from fire activity was high, with maximums of 3.6 and 5.6 in the Sumatra and Kalimantan source regions at the end of the burning season and an average of approximately 1. AOTs could also be high at receptor sites, with a mean and maximum of 0.57 and 1.24 in Singapore and 0.61 and 0.8 in Kuching Sarawak. Ultimately, outside of the extreme 2015 El Nino event, average AERONET AOT values were higher than any other time since sites were established. Thus, while satellite fire data, models, and AERONET all qualitatively agree on the nature of smoke production and transport, the MC's complex environment resulted in clear differences in quantitative interpretation of these datasets.

Reid, Jeffrey S.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A study and evaluation of image analysis techniques applied to remotely sensed data

An analysis of phenomena causing nonlinearities in the transformation from Landsat multispectral scanner coordinates to ground coordinates is presented. Experimental results comparing rms errors at ground control points indicated a slight improvement when a nonlinear (8-parameter) transformation was used instead of an affine (6-parameter) transformation. Using a preliminary ground truth map of a test site in Alabama covering the Mobile Bay area and six Landsat images of the same scene, several classification methods were assessed. A methodology was developed for automatic change detection using classification/cluster maps. A coding scheme was employed for generation of change depiction maps indicating specific types of changes. Inter- and intraseasonal data of the Mobile Bay test area were compared to illustrate the method. A beginning was made in the study of data compression by applying a Karhunen-Loeve transform technique to a small section of the test data set. The second part of the report provides a formal documentation of the several programs developed for the analysis and assessments presented.

Atkinson, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The monsoon of East Asia and its global associations - A survey

Observations concerning the summer and winter monsoons of East Asia and their global associations are reviewed. The seasonal mean structure, transient variation, (intraseasonal to interannual), and synoptic-to-planetary scale fluctuations are discussed separately for the two monsoon components. Similarities and differences between the East Asian monsoon and that of India are also surveyed. Also presented is a description of the current status of monsoon-related observational and theoretical research. The importance of understanding the long-term anomalies of the monsoon is stressed, and an attempt is made to put the East Asian monsoon in a global perspective with a view towards its identification with the problems of long-range weather forecasting or short-term climate prediction in general. Finally, some future directions of research are suggested.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A statistical-dynamical study of empirically determined modes of atmospheric variability

The observed wintertime intraseasonal variability of the northern hemisphere midtropospheric circulation is analyzed within the framework of an equivalent barotropic model. The data set and the form of the eigenvalue/vector problem in the wave domain are described, and the statistical significance of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) is discussed, and some selected modes are briefly described. The anomaly model and the transformation to the EOF domain are presented together with a discussion of the model coefficients and forcing term. The fitting procedure for the parameterized terms are described and the level of correspondence between the modelled and observed streamfunction tendencies as a function of the EOFs is examined. The stability of the time mean flow and other base states is investigated.

Schubert, S. D.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Elements of a stochastic-dynamical theory of the long-term variability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation

The rudiments of a stochastic-dynamical model for climatic systems with multiple equilibrium states are presented as a means for analyzing the long-term variability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. It is shown that a combination of the unstable air-sea interaction, the seasonal cycle, and stochastic intraseasonal forcings must be considered in any model for ENSO. In particular, the instability in the air-sea interaction may be triggered by stochastic forcing. The possibility that stochastic events initiate the conditions leading to ENSO exacerbates the already difficult task of predicting ENSO patterns.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Aspects of the 40-50 day oscillation during the northern winter as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation

One-point correlation statistics and extended empirical orthogonal function analysis are used to show the existence of a principal mode of oscillation in the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of tropical convection. The data analyzed were derived from NOAA Outgoing Longwave Radiation data covering seven 6 mo periods from 1974-83. The data is filtered to remove fluctuations on time scales under 5 days and by subtracting a least-squares parabola to eliminate seasonal means. The previously-known 40-50 day oscillation is found to be the most prevalent component of the ISV of tropical convection. An E-W dipole forms and propagates over the equatorial Indian Ocean, then stalls and intensifies over Indonesia and the equatorial Indian Ocean, then stalls and intensifies over Indonesia and the equatorial central Pacific. Various anomalies generated in association with the dipole and dependent on its exact location when stalled are discussed.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Aspects of the 40-50 day oscillation during the northern summer as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation

The intraseasonal variability (ISV) of tropical convection during the northern summer and its connection with the monsoon over India and east Asia is studied from a planetary-scale perspective. A 40-50 day oscillation consisting primarily of an east-west oriented dipole with centers located over the Indian Ocean/Subcontinent and the western Pacific is shown to be an important component of the ISV of tropical convection during summer. Over these regions, the oscillation undergoes complex structural changes which are manifested in simultaneous cloudiness propagation eastward along the equator from the eastern Indian Ocean to the western Pacific, northward from the Indian Ocean into the Subcontinent, and northwestward from the equatorial western Pacific to the South China Sea. The oscillation is also found to be phase-locked to the monsoon onset of India, the Mei-yu regime over South China, and, in general, the seasonal variation of convection over the equatorial Indian-West Pacific Ocean.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The GISS global climate-middle atmosphere model. II - Model variability due to interactions between planetary waves, the mean circulation and gravity wave drag

The variability which arises in the GISS Global Climate-Middle Atmosphere Model on two time scales is reviewed: interannual standard deviations, derived from the five-year control run, and intraseasonal variability as exemplified by statospheric warnings. The model's extratropical variability for both mean fields and eddy statistics appears reasonable when compared with observations, while the tropical wind variability near the stratopause may be excessive possibly, due to inertial oscillations. Both wave 1 and wave 2 warmings develop, with connections to tropospheric forcing. Variability on both time scales results from a complex set of interactions among planetary waves, the mean circulation, and gravity wave drag. Specific examples of these interactions are presented, which imply that variability in gravity wave forcing and drag may be an important component of the variability of the middle atmosphere.

Rind, D.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Integration of space and in situ observations to study global climate change

The use of model-based global data sets of atmospheric circulation for studying fundamental dynamical and physical processes is discussed, focusing on limitations of the available model-based data sets. Data from the Global Weather Experiment in 1979 were analyzed by two authorized level IIIb data centers in 1980 and in 1981. The analyses led to difference in data-sparse regions such as the tropics. Study areas which can be addressed by an internally-consistent long-term multivariate data set for the atmospheric circulation are considered, including mean climate, forcing for the ocean models, global hydrological cycle, atmospheric energetics, intraseasonal variability, land surface processes, and structure and variability of vertical velocity, divergence, and diabatic heating. It is concluded that the most comprehensive technique for integrating space and in situ observations to produce this type of data set would be a four-dimensional data assimilation system with a realistic physical model of the type employed in operational numerical weather prediction.

Bengtsson, L.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Moored surface wind observations at four sites along the Pacific equator between 140 and 95 deg W

Moored surface wind measurements were recorded along the Pacific equator at 140, 124, 110, and 95 deg W during portions of 1980-1985. Minimum record length is one year. The annual mean and monthly mean westward speeds at 110 deg W were about 1.5 m/s higher during the year preceding the 1982-1983 El Nino than in the year following this event. The annual cycle, which moved westward at about 0.8 m/s, consisted of weak westward and northward speeds in February-April and vice versa in September-October. The spectral slope between 5-day and 0.05-day periods was -1.5. The rms amplitude of the 95-percent statistically significant diurnal period oscillation was 0.3 m/s, and the meridional component was nearly twice as large as the zonal component. The diurnal period wave was coherent (at the 95-percent confidence level) between 95 and 124 deg W, with westward phase propagation of about 138 m/s. No statistically significant spectral peak was found in the 40- to 50-day intraseasonal period band. The surface zonal ocean current component, which reached approximately 0.5 and -0.5 m/s in April and October, respectively at 110 deg W, influenced the surface wind stress computed from the quadratic bulk aerodynamic formulation by 10-20 percent.

Halpern, David↗
NASA NTRS1989

Active modes of the Pacific ITCZ

ITCZ intensity across the Pacific for the 1975-1976 season is studied. Analysis of the data reveal: zonal bands of convective development; isolated patches of stronger convection; and several zonal bands which merge as tropical intraseasonal oscillations. The ITCZ intensity at 160 deg W is compared with the intensity averaged all the way across the Pacific. Composite outgoing longwave radiation anomaly maps for 22 days of local active ITCZ at 160 deg W, 26 days of zonally averaged active ITCZ, and 16 days of both local and zonal active ITCZ are presented and examined. It is noted that: systematic, yet different, patterns, movement, and temporal behavior correspond to local and zonally extensive convection; intensifying zonal convection moves southward; local convection occurs at two preferential latitudes; and local convection does not mean there is a generally active ITCZ.

Hayes, P. M.↗