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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the role of moss in terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes

Mosses are ubiquitous in northern terrestrial ecosystems, and play an important role in regional carbon, water and energy cycling. Current global land surface models that do not consider mosses may bias the quantification of regional carbon dynamics. Here we incorporate mosses as a new plant functional type into the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM 5.0), to develop a new model (TEM_Moss). The new model explicitly quantifies the interactions between vascular plants and mosses and their competition for energy, water, and nutrients. Compared to the estimates using TEM 5.0, the new model estimates that the regional terrestrial soils currently store 132.7 Pg more C and will store 157.5 and 179.1 Pg more C under the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. Ensemble regional simulations forced with different parameters for the 21st century with TEM_Moss predict that the region will accumulate 161.1±142.1 Pg C under the RCP2.6 scenario and 186.7±166.1 Pg C under the RCP8.5 scenario over the century. Our study highlights the necessity of coupling moss into Earth system models to adequately quantify terrestrial carbon–climate feedbacks in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global patterns of forest autotrophic carbon fluxes

Carbon (C) fixation, allocation, and metabolism by trees set the basis for energy and material flows in forest ecosystems and define their interactions with Earth’s changing climate. However, we lack a cohesive synthesis on how forest carbon fluxes vary globally with respect to climate and one another. Here, we draw upon 1,319 records from the Global Forest Carbon Database (ForC), representing all major forest types and the nine most significant autotrophic carbon fluxes, to comprehensively explore how C cycling in mature, undisturbed forests varies with latitude and climate on a global scale. We show that, across all flux variables analyzed, C cycling decreases continuously with absolute latitude – a finding that confirms multiple previous studies but contradicts the idea that net primary productivity of temperate forests rivals that of tropical forests. C flux variables generally displayed similar trends across latitude and multiple climate variables, with no differences in allocation detected at this global scale. Temperature variables in general, and mean annual temperature and temperature seasonality in particular, were the best univariate predictors of C flux, explaining 19 - 71% of variation in the C fluxes analyzed. The effects of temperature were modified by moisture availability, with C flux reduced under hot and dry conditions and sometimes under very high precipitation. C fluxes increased with growing season length, but this was never the best univariate predictor. Within the growing season, the influence of climate on C cycling was small but significant for a number of flux variables. These findings clarify how forest C flux varies with latitude and climate on a global scale. In a period of accelerating climatic change, this improved understanding of the fundamental climatic controls on forest C cycling sets a foundation for understanding patterns of change.

Banbury Morgan, Rebecca↗
DOE OSTI2021

Managing flowering time in Miscanthus and sugarcane to facilitate intra- and intergeneric crosses

Miscanthus is a close relative of Saccharum and a potentially valuable genetic resource for improving sugarcane. Differences in flowering time within and between Miscanthus and Saccharum hinders intra- and interspecific hybridizations. A series of greenhouse experiments were conducted over three years to determine how to synchronize flowering time of Saccharum and Miscanthus genotypes. We found that day length was an important factor influencing when Miscanthus and Saccharum flowered. Sugarcane could be induced to flower in a central Illinois greenhouse using supplemental lighting to reduce the rate at which days shortened during the autumn and winter to 1 min d -1 , which allowed us to synchronize the flowering of some sugarcane genotypes with Miscanthus genotypes primarily from low latitudes. In a complementary growth chamber experiment, we evaluated 33 Miscanthus genotypes, including 28 M . sinensis , 2 M . floridulus , and 3 M . ×giganteus collected from 20.9° S to 44.9° N for response to three day lengths (10 h, 12.5 h, and 15 h). High latitude-adapted M . sinensis flowered mainly under 15 h days, but unexpectedly, short days resulted in short, stocky plants that did not flower; in some cases, flag leaves developed under short days but heading did not occur. In contrast, for M . sinensis and M . floridulus from low latitudes, shorter day lengths typically resulted in earlier flowering, and for some low latitude genotypes, 15 h days resulted in no flowering. However, the highest ratio of reproductive shoots to total number of culms was typically observed for 12.5 h or 15 h days. Latitude of origin was significantly associated with culm length, and the shorter the days, the stronger the relationship. Nearly all entries achieved maximal culm length under the 15 h treatment, but the nearer to the equator an accession originated, the less of a difference in culm length between the short-day treatments and the 15 h day treatment. Under short days, short culms for high-latitude accessions was achieved by different physiological mechanisms for M . sinensis genetic groups from the mainland in comparison to those from Japan; for mainland accessions, the mechanism was reduced internode length, whereas for Japanese accessions the phyllochron under short days was greater than under long days. Thus, for M . sinensis , short days typically hastened floral induction, consistent with the expectations for a facultative short-day plant. However, for high latitude accessions of M . sinensis , days less than 12.5 h also signaled that plants should prepare for winter by producing many short culms with limited elongation and development; moreover, this response was also epistatic to flowering. Thus, to flower M . sinensis that originates from high latitudes synchronously with sugarcane, the former needs day lengths >12.5 h (perhaps as high as 15 h), whereas that the latter needs day lengths <12.5 h.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A regional (land–ocean) comparison of the seasonal to decadal variability of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream 1871–2011

Seasonal to decadal variations in Northern Hemisphere jet stream latitude and speed over land (Eurasia, North America) and oceanic (North Atlantic, North Pacific) regions are presented for the period 1871–2011 from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset. Significant regional differences are seen on seasonal to decadal timescales. Seasonally, the jet latitude range is lower over the oceans compared to land, reduced from 20° over Eurasia to 10° over the North Atlantic where the ocean meridional heat transport is greatest. The mean jet latitude range is at a minimum in winter (DJF), particularly along the western boundary of the North Pacific and North Atlantic, where the land-sea contrast and SST gradients are strongest. The 141-year trends in jet latitude and speed show differences on a regional basis. The North Atlantic has significant increasing jet latitude trends in all seasons, up to 3° in winter. Eurasia has significant increasing trends in winter and summer, however, no increase is seen across the North Pacific or North America. Jet speed shows significant increases evident in winter (up to 4.7 ms –1 ), spring and autumn over the North Atlantic, Eurasia and North America however, over the North Pacific no increase is observed. Long term trends are generally overlaid by multidecadal variability, particularly evident in the North Pacific, where 20-year variability in jet latitude and jet speed are seen, associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which explains 50% of the winter variance in jet latitude since 1940. The results highlight that northern hemisphere jet variability and trends differ on a regional basis (North Atlantic, North Pacific, Eurasia and North America) on seasonal to decadal timescales, suggesting that different mechanisms are influencing the jet latitude and speed. This is important from a climate modelling perspective and for climate predictions in the near and longer term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data from Managing Flowering Time in Miscanthus and Sugarcane to Facilitate Intra- and Intergeneric Crosses

Miscanthus is a close relative of saccharum and a potentially valuable genetic resource for improving sugarcane. Differences in flowering time within and between miscanthus and saccharum hinders intra- and interspecific hybridizations. A series of greenhouse experiments were conducted over three years to determine how to synchronize flowering time of saccharum and miscanthus genotypes. We found that day length was an important factor influencing when miscanthus and saccharum flowered. Sugarcane could be induced to flower in a central Illinois greenhouse using supplemental lighting to reduce the rate at which days shortened during the autumn and winter to 1 min d-1, which allowed us to synchronize the flowering of some sugarcane genotypes with Miscanthus genotypes primarily from low latitudes. In a complementary growth chamber experiment, we evaluated 33 miscanthus genotypes, including 28 M. sinensis , 2 M. floridulus , and 3 M. ×giganteus collected from 20.9° S to 44.9° N for response to three day lengths (10 h, 12.5 h, and 15 h). High latitude-adapted M. sinensis flowered mainly under 15 h days, but unexpectedly, short days resulted in short, stocky plants that did not flower; in some cases, flag leaves developed under short days but heading did not occur. In contrast, for M. sinensis and M. floridulus from low latitudes, shorter day lengths typically resulted in earlier flowering, and for some low latitude genotypes, 15 h days resulted in no flowering. However, the highest ratio of reproductive shoots to total number of culms was typically observed for 12.5 h or 15 h days. Latitude of origin was significantly associated with culm length, and the shorter the days, the stronger the relationship. Nearly all entries achieved maximal culm length under the 15 h treatment, but the nearer to the equator an accession originated, the less of a difference in culm length between the short-day treatments and the 15 h day treatment. Under short days, short culms for high-latitude accessions was achieved by different physiological mechanisms for M. sinensis genetic groups from the mainland in comparison to those from Japan; for mainland accessions, the mechanism was reduced internode length, whereas for Japanese accessions the phyllochron under short days was greater than under long days. Thus, for M. sinensis , short days typically hastened floral induction, consistent with the expectations for a facultative short-day plant. However, for high latitude accessions of M. sinensis , days less than 12.5 h also signaled that plants should prepare for winter by producing many short culms with limited elongation and development; moreover, this response was also epistatic to flowering. Thus, to flower M. sinensis that originates from high latitudes synchronously with sugarcane, the former needs day lengths >12.5 h (perhaps as high as 15 h), whereas that the latter needs day lengths <12.5 h.

Feedstock Production↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Impact of Sudden Commencements on Ground Magnetic Field Variability: Immediate and Delayed Consequences

Abstract We examine how Sudden Commencements (SCs) and Storm Sudden Commencements (SSCs) influence the occurrence of high rates of change of the magnetic field ( R ) as a function of geomagnetic latitude. These rapid, high amplitude variations in the ground‐level geomagnetic field pose a significant risk to ground infrastructure, such as power networks, as the drivers of geomagnetically induced currents. We find that rates of change of ∼30 nT min −1 at near‐equatorial stations are up to 700 times more likely in an SC than in any random interval. This factor decreases with geomagnetic latitude such that rates of change around 30 nT min −1 are only up to 10 times more likely by 65°. At equatorial latitudes we find that 25% of all R in excess of 50 nT min −1 occurs during SCs. This percentage also decreases with geomagnetic latitude, reaching ≤1% by 55°. However, the time period from the SC to 3 days afterward accounts for ≥90% of geomagnetic field fluctuations over 50 nT min −1 , up to ∼60° latitude. Above 60°, other phenomena such as isolated substorms account for the majority of large R . Furthermore, the elevated rates of change observed during and after SCs are solely due to those classified as SSCs. These results show that SSCs are the predominant risk events for large R at mid and low latitudes, but that the risk from the SC itself decreases with latitude.

Smith, Andrew W.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Southern Ocean latitudinal gradients of cloud condensation nuclei

Abstract. The Southern Ocean region is one of the most pristine in the world and serves as an important proxy for the pre-industrial atmosphere. Improving our understanding of the natural processes in this region is likely to result in the largest reductions in the uncertainty of climate and earth system models. While remoteness from anthropogenic and continental sources is responsible for its clean atmosphere, this also results in the dearth of atmospheric observations in the region. Here we present a statistical summary of the latitudinal gradient of aerosol (condensation nuclei larger than 10 nm, CN10) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN at various supersaturations) concentrations obtained from five voyages spanning the Southern Ocean between Australia and Antarctica from late spring to early autumn (October to March) of the 2017/18 austral seasons. Three main regions of influence were identified: the northern sector (40–45∘ S), where continental and anthropogenic sources coexisted with background marine aerosol populations; the mid-latitude sector (45–65∘ S), where the aerosol populations reflected a mixture of biogenic and sea-salt aerosol; and the southern sector (65–70∘ S), south of the atmospheric polar front, where sea-salt aerosol concentrations were greatly reduced and aerosol populations were primarily biologically derived sulfur species with a significant history in the Antarctic free troposphere. The northern sector showed the highest number concentrations with median (25th to 75th percentiles) CN10 and CCN0.5 concentrations of 681 (388–839) cm−3 and 322 (105–443) cm−3, respectively. Concentrations in the mid-latitudes were typically around 350 cm−3 and 160 cm−3 for CN10 and CCN0.5, respectively. In the southern sector, concentrations rose markedly, reaching 447 (298–446) cm−3 and 232 (186–271) cm−3 for CN10 and CCN0.5, respectively. The aerosol composition in this sector was marked by a distinct drop in sea salt and increase in both sulfate fraction and absolute concentrations, resulting in a substantially higher CCN0.5/CN10 activation ratio of 0.8 compared to around 0.4 for mid-latitudes. Long-term measurements at land-based research stations surrounding the Southern Ocean were found to be good representations at their respective latitudes; however this study highlighted the need for more long-term measurements in the region. CCN observations at Cape Grim (40∘39′ S) corresponded with CCN measurements from northern and mid-latitude sectors, while CN10 observations only corresponded with observations from the northern sector. Measurements from a simultaneous 2-year campaign at Macquarie Island (54∘30′ S) were found to represent all aerosol species well. The southernmost latitudes differed significantly from both of these stations, and previous work suggests that Antarctic stations on the East Antarctic coastline do not represent the East Antarctic sea-ice latitudes well. Further measurements are needed to capture the long-term, seasonal and longitudinal variability in aerosol processes across the Southern Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Unified Interpretation of Variability in Precipitation Isotope Ratios

Abstract Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain why the isotope ratios of precipitation vary in space and time and why they correlate with other climate variables like temperature and precipitation. Here, we argue that this behavior is best understood through the lens of radiative transfer, which treats the depletion of atmospheric vapor transport by precipitation as analogous to the attenuation of light by absorption or scattering. Building on earlier work by Siler et al., we introduce a simple model that uses the equations of radiative transfer to approximate the two-dimensional pattern of the oxygen isotope composition of precipitation ( δ p ) from monthly mean hydrologic variables. The model accurately simulates the spatial and seasonal variability in δ p within a state-of-the-art climate model and permits a simple decomposition of δ p variability into contributions from gradients in evaporation and the length scale of vapor transport. Outside the tropics, δ p is mostly controlled by gradients in evaporation, whose dependence on temperature explains the positive correlation between δ p and temperature (i.e., the temperature effect). At low latitudes, δ p is mostly controlled by gradients in the transport length scale, whose inverse relationship with precipitation explains the negative correlation between δ p and precipitation (i.e., the amount effect). This suggests that the temperature and amount effects are both mostly explained by the variability in upstream rainout, but they reflect distinct mechanisms governing rainout at different latitudes. Significance Statement The isotopic composition of precipitation has long been used to make inferences about past climates based on its observed relationship with precipitation in the tropics and with temperature at higher latitudes. These relationships—known as the “amount effect” and “temperature effect,” respectively—have been attributed to many different mechanisms, most of which are thought to operate at either high or low latitudes but not both. Here, we present a unified framework for interpreting the isotope variability that can explain the latitude dependence of the temperature and amount effects despite making no distinction between high and low latitudes. Although our results are generally consistent with certain interpretations of the amount effect, they suggest that the temperature effect is widely misunderstood.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying spectral albedo effects on bifacial photovoltaic module measurements and system model predictions

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the effect of spectral albedo on photovoltaic (PV) module measurements and system model predictions. We demonstrate how to account for albedo in indoor bifacial device measurements by adjusting the applied irradiance using the scaled rear irradiance method, exemplified on fabricated silicon heterojunction (SHJ) modules. System model performance is studied using a detailed 3D finite-element model, DUET, for fixed-tilt and horizontal single-axis tracked (SAT) arrays between 15 and 75°N. Spectral effects cause variations in measured SHJ module short-circuit current up to 2% and efficiency variation up to 0.3% abs. We further demonstrate that rear-side spectral mismatch factors (SMMs) resulting from including or omitting spectral albedo in PV system modeling vary between ±13%, while total (front+rear) SMMs vary up to 3%, depending on the deployment configuration and latitude. SAT array SMMs are weakly correlated with latitude, while fixed-tilt array SMMs increase with latitude, driven by an increasing proportion of ground-reflected light on the front-side of modules. Ground-reflections can constitute between 2% and 32% of total incident module irradiance, with notably high (>10%) contributions for fixed-tilt arrays at high latitude. Effects of spectral albedo are most significant for: (1) fixed-tilt deployments at high latitudes, (2) wide bandgap technologies such as perovskite and cadmium telluride cells, (3) albedos which vary steeply over the technology's absorption range, and (4) high albedo ground covers. Overall, we demonstrate that omitting spectral albedo effects can result in PV measurement and system-level modeling uncertainties on the order of several percent in these cases.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Climatology and Life‐Cycle Characteristics of Atmospheric Fronts and Their Associated Precipitation

Abstract Atmospheric fronts are one of the main sources of mid‐latitude variability. We employ a novel method for identifying and tracking fronts and frontal precipitation. Thermal and dynamical variables are used to identify fronts as areal objects in space, which are tracked in time using the open‐source TempestExtremes software package. Precipitation objects are co‐located to identify frontal precipitation. The method is subjected to validation and sensitivity tests using manually curated data from the National Weather Service. Climatologies of fronts and frontal precipitation are computed from reanalysis and observations; fronts are present upwards of 14% of the time in the storm tracks, and represent the majority (up to 90%) of total and extreme precipitation. Novel aspects of the method are showcased through the lifetime characteristics of fronts across North America. Three sets of warm and cold fronts were discovered, and their duration, distance‐traveled, and translation velocity are examined. Plain Language Summary Mid‐latitude low‐pressure systems and weather fronts are important for our day‐to‐day experience of weather events, particularly in the mid‐latitudes. This work makes use of standardized atmospheric data and creates a method of automatically tracking these important atmospheric features and their precipitation to quantify their relative role in global precipitation. Weather fronts are persistent in the mid‐latitudes and are associated with the majority of precipitation–particularly the most intense precipitation. Trajectories of fronts over North America are categorized to create a set of archetypal fronts that occur in that region. The differences between these types of fronts are characterized. Key Points An automated, efficient, and skillful frontal detection algorithm is developed and validated Fronts contribute a larger fraction of extreme precipitation than all precipitation in mid‐latitude storm tracks Fronts across North America have substantial variation in characteristics depending on their origin location

extratropical cyclone↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wintertime Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation and their impacts on the Northern Hemisphere climate in E3SM

The characteristics of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their impacts on climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere are important metrics for evaluating a climate system model. Observational analyses reveal that the horizontal and vertical structures in the AO and NAO exhibit a meridional dipole and a large-scale barotropic pattern between the Arctic and mid-latitudes. Historical model simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM-HIST) are used to identify how well it captures these major climate modes. It is found that the simulated AO and NAO modes have spatial structures similar to the observed features. In addition, the observed frequency bands in the AO and NAO-related time variability are captured well in the E3SM-HIST simulation. Associated with the positive phase in wintertime AO and NAO, zonal flow and warm advection in mid-latitude continents are enhanced, along with stronger cold flow from enhanced northerly winds over high latitudes. These features are linked to the atmospheric circulation pattern reflected by lower SLP anomalies over the Arctic and higher SLP anomalies over the mid-latitudes. In E3SM-HIST, these spatial associations and main structural features are analogous to those in observations. In the time-height evolution related to winter AO and NAO modes, it can also be seen that the simulations reproduce the downward propagating patterns in observations. Nevertheless, the vertical structures associated with AO and NAO in E3SM-HIST exhibit substantial biases in the lower stratosphere. The cause of these stratospheric biases is investigated using the strength of climatological stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and wave activity fluxes. The results herein suggest that E3SM-HIST has a reasonable skill in reproducing the observed characteristics related to the winter AO and NAO, although there exist systematic biases in the associated climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Structure of an Atmospheric River over Australia and the Southern Ocean. Part I: Tropical and Midlatitude Water Vapor Fluxes

An atmospheric river (AR) impacting Australia-Tasmania and the Southern Ocean during the Austral summer on 28-29 January 2018 during the SOCRATES campaign is analyzed using both a modeling and observational approach. Gulfstream-V dropsonde measurements and GPM radar analyses were used in conjunction with Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations with water vapor tracers to investigate the relative contributions of tropical and mid-latitude moisture sources to the AR. Moisture associated with a monsoonal tropical depression became entrained into a mid-latitude frontal system that extended to 60°S over the Southern Ocean reaching the associated low pressure system 850 km off the east coast of Antarctica – effectively connecting the tropics and the polar region. Tropical moisture contributed to about 50% of the precipitable water within the AR. The tropical contribution to precipitation decreased with latitude, from > 70% over the Australian continent, to ~50% off the Australian coast, to less than 10% poleward of 60°S. Precipitation in the AR conformed to a seeder-feeder model, the seeder precipitation forming primarily from tropical sourced moisture above the altitude of the 0°C isotherm, and the feeder precipitation sourced from mid-latitude sourced moisture below the altitude of the 0°C isotherm. The integrated vapor transport (IVT) through the core of the AR reached above 500 kg m-1s-1 during 1200 UTC 28 January to 0600 UTC 29 January 29, 1.29 times the average amount of water carried by the world’s largest river, the Amazon. The high IVT strength might be attributed to the higher water vapor content associated with the warmer temperatures in Austral summer.

Rauber, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Latent and Kinetic Energy Trend Changes in Extratropical Cyclones From 1940 to 2020: Results From ERA‐5 Reanalysis

Abstract Baroclinic or extratropical cyclones (ETCs) transport heat and moisture to higher latitudes, making it fundamentally important to understand how their influence changes as Earth's climate evolves. A 2–8‐day Lanzcos bandpass filter is applied to European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting 5th Generation Reanalysis latent energy (LE) and kinetic energy (KE) data to assess how ETCs have changed from 1940 to 2020 relative to full‐scale changes in LE and KE. Full‐scale KE trends are more positive at high latitudes relative to mid‐latitudes, confirming several previous studies that ETCs have shifted poleward. LE increases have occurred globally, and trends in both full‐scale LE and KE are statistically significant in the southern high latitudes. The high relative fractional contribution of 2–8‐day LE wave power and trend clearly suggest that ETCs have an increasingly important role in poleward moisture transport but are not solely responsible for the observed statistically significant increases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Can Reduce Risks to Antarctic Ice Loss Depending on Injection Location and Amount

Owing to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is vulnerable to rapid ice loss in the upcoming decades and centuries. Here this study examines the effectiveness of using stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) that minimizes global mean temperature (GMT) change to slow projected 21st century Antarctic ice loss. We simulate 11 different SAI cases which vary by the latitudinal location(s) and the amount(s) of the injection(s) to examine the climatic response near Antarctica in each case as compared to the reference climate at the turn of the last century. We demonstrate that injecting at a single latitude in the northern hemisphere or at the Equator increases Antarctic shelf ocean temperatures pertinent to ice shelf basal melt, while injecting only in the southern hemisphere minimizes this temperature change. We use these results to analyze the results of more complex multi-latitude injection strategies that maintain GMT at or below 1.5°C above the pre-industrial. All these multi-latitude cases will slow Antarctic ice loss relative to the mid-to-late 21st century SSP2-4.5 emissions pathway. Yet, to avoid a GMT threshold estimated by previous studies pertaining to rapid West Antarctic ice loss (1.5°C above the pre-industrial GMT, though large uncertainty), our study suggests SAI would need to cool about 1.0°C below this threshold and predominately inject at low southern hemisphere latitudes (~15°S - 30°S). These results highlight the complexity of factors impacting the Antarctic response to SAI and the critical role of the injection strategy in preventing future ice loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Emergence of unprecedented climate change in projected future precipitation

The future time of emergence when precipitation changes due to anthropogenic influences begins to continuously exceed the previous maximum value is defined as the ‘tipping year’ Historical experiments and future experiments simulated by state-of-the-art climate models were utilized. A total of 510,000 time series from year 1856 to 2095 were generated by sampling the natural internal variability in precipitation. The time evolutions of internal variability in the whole time period were estimated from the combination of past and future experiments with preindustrial control experiments. A large ensemble size enabled an estimation of the probability density function of the tipping year at each grid point, providing precise information on the uncertainty of the projection. The tipping year of average precipitation emerges earlier in high latitudes than in lower latitudes. In some regions in lower latitudes and mid-latitudes, the tipping year of intense precipitation emerges faster than that of average precipitation. The tipping years of average and intense precipitation are earlier for higher anthropogenic forcing scenarios than for lower scenarios. The global average of the tipping year for intense precipitation might be attributed to the enhancement of the thermodynamic effect (moisture) rather than the dynamic effect (vertical motion).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗