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100 records · Page 6

Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune Red Cockaded Woodpecker Model

Critical military training and testing on lands along the nation’s coastal and estuarine shorelines are increasingly placed at risk because of encroachment pressures in surrounding areas, impairments due to other anthropogenic disturbances, and changes in climate and sea level. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) intends to enhance and sustain its training and testing assets and also optimize its stewardship of natural resources through the development and application of an ecosystem-based management approach on DoD installations. To accomplish this goal, particularly for installations in estuarine/coastal environments, the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) launched the Defense Coastal/Estuarine Research Program (DCERP) as a 10-year effort at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune (MCBCL) in North Carolina. The results of the second 5 years of the program (DCERP2) are presented in the DCERP2 Final Report.There were four overarching objectives of DCERP2. The first objective was to understand the effects of climate change impacts, including warming temperatures, variability in the hydrological cycle, storm events, and sea level rise on the coastal ecosystems at MCBCL from observations and measurements made over the 10-year program. The second objective was to understand the carbon cycle of the coastal and terrestrial ecosystems at MCBCL through a highly integrated sampling program. The third objective was to develop models, tools, and indicators to evaluate current and projected future ecosystem state changes and translate scientific findings into actionable information for installation managers. The last objective was to recommend adaptive management strategies to sustain ecosystem natural resources within the context of an active military installation.This data package contains the files needed to run MCBCL simulations using the state-and-transition simulation model (ST-Sim) software to simulate longleaf pine landscape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Onslow Beach Washover Fan Morphology from 2012 to 2015

Critical military training and testing on lands along the nation’s coastal and estuarine shorelines are increasingly placed at risk because of encroachment pressures in surrounding areas, impairments due to other anthropogenic disturbances, and changes in climate and sea level. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) intends to enhance and sustain its training and testing assets and also optimize its stewardship of natural resources through the development and application of an ecosystem-based management approach on DoD installations. To accomplish this goal, particularly for installations in estuarine/coastal environments, the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) launched the Defense Coastal/Estuarine Research Program (DCERP) as a 10-year effort at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune (MCBCL) in North Carolina. The results of the second 5 years of the program (DCERP2) are presented in the DCERP2 Final Report.There were four overarching objectives of DCERP2. The first objective was to understand the effects of climate change impacts, including warming temperatures, variability in the hydrological cycle, storm events, and sea level rise on the coastal ecosystems at MCBCL from observations and measurements made over the 10-year program. The second objective was to understand the carbon cycle of the coastal and terrestrial ecosystems at MCBCL through a highly integrated sampling program. The third objective was to develop models, tools, and indicators to evaluate current and projected future ecosystem state changes and translate scientific findings into actionable information for installation managers. The last objective was to recommend adaptive management strategies to sustain ecosystem natural resources within the context of an active military installation.These grid files were created from data collected using a Riegl 3-D laser scanner. Millions of x, y, and z points from the F2 Washover Fan on Onslow Beach were processed using the MARS software package to define a bare-earth model. Grid files were imported into Golden Software Surfer version 19 for editing and exported from that application as .grd files. Files can be opened in Surfer or ArcMap, but the coordinate system information will be lost if opened in ArcMap. These data were collected to quantify the morphological changes that occur on a washover fan through time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The False Dilemma: Rethinking AF Science and Technology Officer Talent Management

In 2019, Secretary of the Air Force (SECAF) Heather Wilson launched the 2030 Science and Technology (S&T) Strategy by stating, “The advantage will go to those who create the best technologies and who integrate and field them in creative operational ways that provide military advantages.” In 2021, 15% of Air Force general officers responsible for creating and integrating this technological edge had a science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) graduate degree, and less than 1% of generals had a STEM doctorate. As one point of comparison, at least 32% and 13% of founding CEOs of Fortune 500 technology companies had a master’s and doctoral STEM degree, respectively. The gulf is larger when you consider that these CEOs used their technical degrees throughout their careers whereas most general officers do not. In large organizations, if the leader does not possess technical knowledge, it is difficult to drive innovation systems and connect ideas to reality. The evidence for this disconnect is abundant in acquisition challenges for high-tech systems, significant pushback to the “revolution in military affairs”, and failure of the “Third Offset” to take hold and deliver capabilities to offset Chinese and Russian capabilities. Indeed, when the former Air Force and Space Force Chief Software Officer, Nicolas M. Chaillan, offered his resignation, one of the main reasons for leaving was “the failure of OSD and the Joint Staff to deliver on their own alleged top ‘priority’, JADC2 – they couldn’t ‘walk the walk.’” Senior leaders have recognized this disconnect, and several inquiries and studies regarding STEM competency have been conducted. Many have posed a false dilemma: a large, STEM-cognizant or small, STEM-expert force. However, current and future STEM human capital needs are managed at the unit and functional area level. This leads to “silos” and the tactical “needs of the present” dominating the strategic “needs of the future”, highlighted by only two functional areas systematically tracking future STEM needs. Therefore, the decision on force structure appears to have been historically made by default through these and other perceived structural realities, and a vast majority of recommendations have focused on the small STEM community – an exercise in diminishing returns. In essence, the solution often boils down to finding unicorns – officers that have chartered the unforgiving pathway through the traditional “gates” to general officer while obtaining sufficient STEM proficiency along the way. Fortunately for the Air Force, these officers exist, albeit at a rate below what the evidence would suggest is necessary. However, this approach fundamentally limits the ability to develop a deep pool of officers with the ability to create and integrate technologies and ensures the Dunning-Kruger effect is prevalent. The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias where those with limited knowledge in an area lack the expertise necessary to recognize their lack of expertise and consequently are prone to overestimate their knowledge and performance. In short, we need less leaders overestimating their STEM knowledge and more with hard-earned STEM competency required to “walk the walk” to create and integrate technologies for military advantage. This will not be accomplished by restricting the emphasis to the traditional scientists and engineering (S&E) career fields – the pool, only 10% of line officers, and general officer progression is just too small. Fortunately, the recent SECAF’s Management Initiatives and Chief of Staff’s (CSAF) Action Orders, both containing emphasis on organic expertise to “accrue advantage in military-technological competition,” present an opportunity to truly develop a framework for the force of the future.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Status of the NEAMS and ARC fast reactor tools integration to the NEAMS Workbench

The Workbench initiative was launched in FY-2017 within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program to facilitate the transition from conventional tools to high-fidelity tools. The NEAMS Workbench provides a common user interface for model creation, real-time validation, execution, output processing, and visualization for integrated codes. The integration of the Argonne Reactor Computation (ARC) suite of codes into the NEAMS Workbench through the PyARC module was initiated in FY-2017. The ARC codes, which focus on fast reactor multiphysics analysis, contain both legacy codes like DIF3D and REBUS-3 that were developed with over 30 years of experience, and newer NEAMS additions like MC 2 -3, PERSENT, and PROTEUS. Recent work expended this integration to other tools to support the U.S. fast reactor community such as DASSH for sub-channel thermal-hydraulics, Griffin for high-fidelity deterministic transport calculations, and OpenMC for Monte Carlo simulations (with Shift integration planned for FY-2023). The integration of the “extended ARC” suite of codes into the NEAMS Workbench interface relies on the PyARC and PyGriffin modules to handles the pre- and post-processing of these codes input, and the runtime environment. The PyARC module together with the NEAMS Workbench interface are both released under Open Source Software licenses.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Rapid, Approximate Multi-Axis Vibration Testing [Thesis]

The aerospace industry uses vibration shaker tables to perform component durability testing. In these tests a component, piece of equipment, or entire system is attached to a shaker table where it is subjected to dynamic excitation. The goal is to understand how the article under test will perform in its service environment without having to run it through its entire service life via field testing. In a vibration test, an aerospace system or component is qualified if it is shown to survive a test meant to replicate its lifetime service conditions. The test is designed based on recorded field data. To develop a test, a system is taken through all of its intended environments, e.g., transportation, launch, and reentry. Acceleration data measured from these environments is then brought back to the lab and imported into a shaker table controller. The controller then drives a vibration test intended to mimic the acceleration conditions experienced by the system or specific components of the system in the field. However, it is often difficult to match the measured field response in a lab test. This is largely due to the test’s boundary conditions and excitation methods. In a lab test, a shaker table is the excitation source. The two most common shaker table types, differentiated by their number of independent degrees of freedom, are single-axis and multi-axis shaker tables. Multi-axis shakers have the ability to reproduce service environments more realistically, as real accelerations inevitably produce multiple degrees of freedom of excitation simultaneously. Figure 1 depicts a generic multi-axis testing setup on a three-axis shaker table. Often multi-axis tests use six-degree-of-freedom (6DOF) shaker tables. Yet multi-axis shakers are not yet common in the aerospace industry due in part to their high cost and the difficulty for shaker controllers to handle the added complexity. Single-axis shaker tables are much more common. They are not as expensive to purchase and have a wide range of control software options.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Report on ISR-1 High-Altitude Balloon Flight

To test small technologies at lower cost for space science applications, LANL has developed a small high altitude balloon payload that could, in the future, be regularly and inexpensively launched from LANL. A neutron detector, NEMO, was integrated to evaluate its performance in a space-like mixed-radiation environment and collect neutron data in the atmosphere. In collaboration with EES-14, a high-altitude balloon payload was launched from LANL Technical Area 51 on February 27, 2023 and April 17, 2023. For real-time geolocation, a SAM-M8Q M8 GNSS module was used to get position and time, and an Iridium RockBLOCK 9603 was used to communicate with the ground using the Iridium satellite fleet. These modules were all controlled using an Iteaduino Mega microcontroller board. Finally, a High Altitude Science Eagle Flight Computer with a temperature pressure sensor ran independently, writing data to an SD card. All of these modules were powered by a 5 mAh lithium polymer battery. The battery was attached to the bottom of the payload while the remaining electronics were embedded in the underside of the top of the payload. These modules were wired as seen in Figure 1-2. The Iteaduino Mega microcontroller board was programmed to use the RockBLOCK to send a message once every 10 minutes containing neutron and GPS data read off the NEMO and SAM M8Q, respectively. Once the message send attempt finished, the RockBLOCK would be slept for the rest of the 10 minute interval. The Eagle Flight Computer ran continuously throughout the flight, taking data every 6 seconds. The RockBLOCK message data was set up to be delivered from the Iridium satellite fleet to a website, where it was stored and parsed to create live maps and plots for analysis and balloon retrieval. The RockBLOCK message data was additionally configured to be sent to an email as a fail-safe. The payload was ground-tested successfully for over 50 hours, with multiple revisions occurring to best prepare for conditions at altitude and improve the software and firmware to fix any issues that cropped up with the data pipeline. Additional to the balloon payload, the flight had an attached iMet-4 radiosonde and Garmin T5 GPS Dog Collar. The radiosonde provided GPS and meteorological data. The T5 dog collar is used along with a Garmin Astro 430 to track the balloon at a range of up to 9 miles for retrieval. The balloon itself was initially a 1600 g meteorological balloon with an attached High Altitude Science parachute, both of which can be seen in Figure 1-3. After the first flight, the EES team swapped to a Rocketman parachute.

42 ENGINEERING↗

FORECASTOR – II. Simulating galaxy surveys with the Cosmological Advanced Survey Telescope for Optical and UV Research

The Cosmological Advanced Survey Telescope for Optical and UV Research (CASTOR) is a planned flagship space telescope, covering the blue-optical and UV part of the spectrum. Here, we introduce the CASTOR image simulator, a python GalSim package-based script capable of generating mock CASTOR images from an input catalogue. We generate example images from the CASTOR Wide, Deep, and Ultra-Deep surveys using simulated lightcones from the Santa Cruz semi-analytic model. We make predictions for the performance of these surveys by comparing galaxies that are extracted from each image using Source Extractor to the input catalogue. We find that the Wide, Deep, and Ultra-Deep surveys will be 75 per cent complete for point sources down to $\sim 27$, 29, and 30 mag, respectively, in the UV, u, and g filters, with the UV-split and u-split filters reaching a shallower depth. With a large area of $\sim 2200$ deg$^2$, the Wide survey will detect hundreds of millions of galaxies out to $z\sim 4$, mostly with $M_\ast \gtrsim 10^{9}\,{\rm M}_{\odot }$. The Ultra-Deep survey will probe to $z\sim 5$, detecting galaxies with $M_\ast \gtrsim 10^{7}{\rm M}_{\odot }$. These galaxy samples will enable precision measurements of the distribution of star formation in the cosmic web, connecting the growth of stellar mass to the assembly of dark matter haloes over two thirds of the history of the Universe, and other core goals of CASTOR’s legacy surveys. These image simulations and the tools developed to generate them will be a vital planning tool to estimate CASTOR’s performance and iterate the telescope and survey designs prior to launch.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment Report Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base

Motor systems are an integral part of our industrial and commercial facilities. They provide the motive force behind the fans, pumps, compressors, chillers, and conveyors in these facilities. Given their centrality to any facility’s operations, they are a critical energy end use to understand, particularly when developing technologies and policies to meet sustainability goals, improve productivity, and enhance resilience. In the late 1990s, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducted two seminal studies to better understand the installed stock and energy savings opportunities of industrial and commercial motor systems. In the industrial sector, The United States Industrial Electric Motor Systems Market Opportunities Assessment used primary data collected through onsite assessments and led to a greater understanding of the installed base of motor systems, their characteristics, and the opportunities for energy savings (U.S. Department of Energy, 2002). Notable findings included the following: Industrial motor systems consumed 679 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 1994, representing 23 percent of U.S. electricity consumption. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 62-104 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Sixty-two percent of the energy savings potential was from fan, pump, and compressor end use equipment. Nearly half of motor system electricity consumption was attributable to approximately 3,500 facilities, or 1.5 percent of U.S. manufacturing facilities. Opportunities for Energy Savings in the Residential and Commercial Sectors with High Efficiency Electric Motors provided an evaluation of the installed stock of motor driven equipment in U.S. commercial and residential buildings and opportunities for utilization of high efficiency motors and variable speed technologies (Arthur D. Little, 1999). Notable findings included the following: Commercial motor systems consumed 343 billion kWh in 1995, with refrigeration and space conditioning constituting 93 percent of the total. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 51 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Due in no small part to these seminal studies, motor system technologies and usage characteristics have changed drastically since the late 1990s. Greater awareness of cost-effective strategies for reducing motor system electricity consumption have been developed and deployed. This includes several software tools, literature, and utility and government programs promoting energy efficiency improvements in motor driven systems. Additionally, several rounds of energy efficiency standards have been enacted, resulting in improved installed motor efficiency. The cost of variable speed drives has dropped substantially, and combined with utility rebate programs, has led to their greater adoption. Further, since these results were published, the U.S. manufacturing sector has undergone a massive transformation. Due to global competition, some sectors have relocated operations overseas. Others have brought operations onshore to avail low cost and abundant natural gas. Additionally, automation and robotics have pervaded the entire sector. Consequently, these two reports likely do not represent the current state of motor driven systems in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities. As cited in recent studies, the lack of current information on motor system electricity consumption and use characteristics limits the ability to conduct analysis on energy savings potential, develop technologies to address energy and productivity gaps, and develop programs to promote energy efficiency practices and technologies for motor systems (International Energy Agency, 2007; UNIDO, 2010; McKane and Hasanbeigi, 2011; Waide and Brunner, 2011). Specifically, the lack of information affects a range of stakeholders: Governments must rely on outdated information when setting research agendas, developing policies, and designing energy efficiency programs and offerings. Utilities and energy efficiency programs cannot identify the current market needs or potential impact when designing rebate and energy efficiency programs. Electric grid planners cannot identify motor system usage characteristics when developing plans to support the resilience of the electric grid. Manufacturers of motors, motor driven equipment, and drives are hampered when developing technologies to meet the needs of their market. Motor system end users are limited in their ability to identify energy saving opportunities within their own facilities because they do not have reliable benchmark information. In response to the lack of current information and analysis on industrial and commercial motor systems, the DOE initiated an update to these two studies. Launched in 2016 and led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), the Motor System Market Assessment (MSMA) provides an updated, more comprehensive assessment of the installed stock of motor systems in both the industrial and commercial sectors, a review of the supply chains supporting motor and drives in the U.S., and the performance improvement opportunity available from using best available technologies and maintenance and operation practices. The outcomes of the MSMA are documented in three U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment reports, with this report being the first listed: 1. Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base (this report) documents the findings on the installed base of motor systems in the U.S. industrial and commercial sectors. Quantification of energy savings potential is not documented in this report but in Volume 3. 2. Volume 2: Motors and Drives Supply Chain Review reviews the state of supply chains for motors and drives installed in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities, focusing on advanced motor and drive technologies and their constituent materials. 3. Volume 3: Energy Savings Opportunity analyzes the energy performance improvement opportunity for the installed base of U.S. industrial and commercial motor systems. This report has been prepared as a reference for motor system stakeholders. It provides factual information as could be best determined by the assessment results and avoids speculating on any findings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

First Look Fund - An Early-Stage Aligned Intermediary to Enhance the Flow of Private Capital into Energy Companies (Final Technical Report)

The technologies required to advance society into a cleaner, better future will come from a broad range of scientific disciplines including materials science, chemistry, physics, and biology. The innovations will rely on scientific breakthroughs rather than software innovation and can be referred to as “hardtech.” These new technology developments will have vast implications across most industrial sectors: energy, materials, manufacturing, electronics, life sciences, etc. The majority of these scientific breakthroughs will be produced and developed by startup companies, which are best suited for high-risk, early-stage development work. However, a large funding gap exists between lab-scale scientific research of the startup world and industrial-scale commercialization. Activate Global, Inc (Activate), a 501(c)3 nonprofit, fills one part of this gap with the Activate Fellowship program1.To fully bridge the gap between lab and market, additional and aligned capital sources are needed. Through this project, Activate’s goals were: Research the recent history (2005-2015) of hardtech investing to discover the driving forces behind positive and negative outcomes from the viewpoint of investors.; Create a database of “technology pathways” categorized by specific technology areas and showing what technology milestones would be needed to be attractive to a partner or acquirer and what resources were available to achieve those goals.; Build a financial model supported by the data acquired that would show attractive returns were possible in early-stage hardtech investing.; Create an investment thesis around the financial model to show how attractive returns could be achieved in an early-stage hardtech-focused fund.; Publish a paper with a qualitative comparative analysis to help investors better understand driving factors of outcomes.; Share these findings with asset managers not currently investing in early-stage hardtech to attract partners to execute the investment strategy.; Implement the investment strategy and begin investing in early-stage hardtech companies through a new vehicle: First Look Fund. Through this research, Activate created a database of nearly 200 hardtech companies that exited via an M&A transaction between 2005 and 2015. Much of the data Activate obtained was nonpublic information and therefore, the database was anonymized. Activate also created the technology pathways database to help new early-stage hardtech companies define milestones, technology objectives and potential resources. Activate created a financial model with a legal structure showing that market-rate returns were possible, created an investment thesis around that model, and then shared these findings with potential partners. Finally, Activate’s research was used to publish a paper with Stanford on driving factors behind financial outcomes that will help investors better guide their portfolios. While Activate was not able to launch the First Look Fund during the project timeline, mostly due to the fallout from COVID-19 (global economic shocks decreasing interest in first time funds, inability to meet potential investors in person), the research has created enough interest for Activate to continue pursuing the goals of the project, showing the potential feasibility of the endeavor. Regardless of Activate’s ability to execute on the investment strategy, the resulting research has been downloaded, viewed, and referenced by investors and becomes another tool to encourage investment in the early-stage hardtech space.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗