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At least 109 records · Page 6

Impacts of Intercontinental Transport of Anthropogenic Fine Particulate Matter on Human Mortality

Fine particulate matter with diameter of 2.5 microns or less (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality and can travel long distances, impacting air quality and health on intercontinental scales. We estimate the mortality impacts of 20 % anthropogenic primary PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursor emission reductions in each of four major industrial regions (North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia) using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution and epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions. We estimate that while 93-97 % of avoided deaths from reducing emissions in all four regions occur within the source region, 3-7 % (11,500; 95 % confidence interval, 8,800-14,200) occur outside the source region from concentrations transported between continents. Approximately 17 and 13 % of global deaths avoided by reducing North America and Europe emissions occur extraregionally, owing to large downwind populations, compared with 4 and 2 % for South and East Asia. The coarse resolution global models used here may underestimate intraregional health benefits occurring on local scales, affecting these relative contributions of extraregional versus intraregional health benefits. Compared with a previous study of 20 % ozone precursor emission reductions, we find that despite greater transport efficiency for ozone, absolute mortality impacts of intercontinental PM2.5 transport are comparable or greater for neighboring source-receptor pairs, due to the stronger effect of PM2.5 on mortality. However, uncertainties in modeling and concentration-response relationships are large for both estimates.

human health↗

SO2 Emissions and Lifetimes: Estimates from Inverse Modeling Using In Situ and Global, Space-Based (SCIAMACHY and OMI) Observations

Top-down constraints on global sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions are inferred through inverse modeling using SO2 column observations from two satellite instruments (SCIAMACHY and OMI). We first evaluated the S02 column observations with surface SO2 measurements by applying local scaling factors from a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to SO2 columns retrieved from the satellite instruments. The resulting annual mean surface SO2 mixing ratios for 2006 exhibit a significant spatial correlation (r=0.86, slope=0.91 for SCIAMACHY and r=0.80, slope = 0.79 for OMI) with coincident in situ measurements from monitoring networks throughout the United States and Canada. We evaluate the GEOS-Chem simulation of the SO2 lifetime with that inferred from in situ measurements to verity the applicability of GEOS-Chem for inversion of SO2 columns to emissions. The seasonal mean SO2 lifetime calculated with the GEOS-Chem model over the eastern United States is 13 h in summer and 48 h in winter, compared to lifetimes inferred from in situ measurements of 19 +/- 7 h in summer and 58 +/- 20 h in winter. We apply SO2 columns from SCIAMACHY and OMI to derive a top-down anthropogenic SO2 emission inventory over land by using the local GEOS-Chem relationship between SO2 columns and emissions. There is little seasonal variation in the top-down emissions (<15%) over most major industrial regions providing some confidence in the method. Our global estimate for annual land surface anthropogenic SO2 emissions (52.4 Tg S/yr from SCIAMACHY and 49.9 Tg S / yr from OMI) closely agrees with the bottom-up emissions (54.6 Tg S/yr) in the GEOS-Chem model and exhibits consistency in global distributions with the bottom-up emissions (r = 0.78 for SCIAMACHY, and r = 0.77 for OMI). However, there are significant regional differences.

Lee, Chulkyu↗

Three-Gorge Reservoir: A 'Controlled Experiment' for Calibration/Validation of Time-Variable Gravity Signals Detected from Space

With the advances of measurements, modern space geodesy has become a new type of remote sensing for the Earth dynamics, especially for mass transports in the geophysical fluids on large spatial scales. A case in point is the space gravity mission GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) which has been in orbit collecting gravity data since early 2002. The data promise to be able to detect changes of water mass equivalent to sub-cm thickness on spatial scale of several hundred km every month or so. China s Three-Gorge Reservoir has already started the process of water impoundment in phases. By 2009,40 km3 of water will be stored behind one of the world s highest dams and spanning a section of middle Yangtze River about 600 km in length. For the GRACE observations, the Three-Gorge Reservoir would represent a geophysical controlled experiment , one that offers a unique opportunity to do detailed geophysical studies. -- Assuming a complete documentation of the water level and history of the water impoundment process and aided with a continual monitoring of the lithospheric loading response (such as in area gravity and deformation), one has at hand basically a classical forwardinverse modeling problem of surface loading, where the input and certain output are known. The invisible portion of the impounded water, i.e. underground storage, poses either added values as an observable or a complication as an unknown to be modeled. Wang (2000) has studied the possible loading effects on a local scale; we here aim for larger spatial scales upwards from several hundred km, with emphasis on the time-variable gravity signals that can be detected by GRACE and follow-on missions. Results using the Green s function approach on the PREM elastic Earth model indicate the geoid height variations reaching several millimeters on wavelengths of about a thousand kilometers. The corresponding vertical deformations have amplitude of a few centimeters. In terms of long-wavelength spherical harmonics, the induced geoid height variations are very close to the accuracy of GRACE- recoverable gravity field, while the low-degree (2 to 5) harmonics should be detectable. With a large regional time-variable gravity signal, the Three-Gorge experiment can serve as a useful calibration/verification for GRACE (including the elastic loading effects), and future gravity missions (especially for visco-elastic yielding as well as underground water variations).

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

Micro-Scale Distributions of Major and Trace Elements in Chondrites

The Hayabusa spacecraft has successfully returned to Earth after two touchdowns on the surface of Asteroid 25143 Itokawa. This asteroid is classified as an S-type and inferred to consist of materials similar to ordinary chondrites or primitive achondrites [1]. More than 1500 particles have been identified consisting of olivine, pyroxene, plagioclase, Fe sulfide and Fe metal, with compositions consistent with being of LL origin. While the chondritic components are familiar to us, the level of detail to which the Itokawa samples will be exposed to will be unprecedented given that the samples are reasonably large and accessible to a wide variety of techniques. In many ways, we expect that our knowledge base of the comparator chondrites will be found to be wanting. Chondrites are the building blocks of the solar system. However, these rocks are essentially breccias and they are quite variable in bulk element compositions as well as compositions of the individual components. We have initiated a program of analysis for chondrites focusing on major and trace element distributions between the mineral components and the matrix. The issues to be addressed include the homogeneity of matrix and chondrule components and the representivity of any given sample to the bulk meteorite. This may be particularly important given the limited numbers of Itokawa grains that may be available for a specific analysis. As an initial study, we have taken thin sections of carbonaceous chondrites to study the representivity of the matrix compositions. Spot locations were constrained to limited regions of the sections so as to assess the variability of a local scale. Further work will be required to assess variability over a centimeter scale.

Ireland, T. R.↗

Evaluation of a Model-Based Groundwater Drought Indicator in the Conterminous U.S.

Monitoring groundwater drought using land surface models is a valuable alternative given the current lack of systematic in situ measurements at continental and global scales and the low resolution of current remote sensing based groundwater data. However, uncertainties inherent to land surface models may impede drought detection, and thus should be assessed using independent data sources. In this study, we evaluated a groundwater drought index (GWI) derived from monthly groundwater storage output from the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) using a GWI similarly derived from in situ groundwater observations. Groundwater observations were obtained from unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in eight regions of the central and northeastern U.S. Regional average GWI derived from CLSM exhibited strong correlation with that from observation wells, with correlation coefficients between 0.43 and 0.92. GWI from both in situ data and CLSM was generally better correlated with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at 12 and 24 month timescales than at shorter timescales, but it varied depending on climate conditions. The correlation between CLSM derived GWI and SPI generally decreases with increasing depth to the water table, which in turn depends on both bedrock depth (a CLSM parameter) and mean annual precipitation. The persistence of CLSM derived GWI is spatially varied and again shows a strong influence of depth to groundwater. CLSM derived GWI generally persists longer than GWI derived from in situ data, due at least in part to the inability of coarse model inputs to capture high frequency meteorological variability at local scales. The study also showed that groundwater can have a significant impact on soil moisture persistence where the water table is shallow. Soil moisture persistence was estimated to be longer in the eastern U.S. than in the west, in contrast to previous findings that were based on models that did not represent groundwater. Assimilation of terrestrial water storage data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission improved the correlation between CLSM based regional average GWI and that based on in situ data in six of the eight regions. Practical issues regarding the application of GRACE assimilated groundwater storage for drought detection are discussed. An important conclusion of this study is that model parameters that control the depth to the water table, including bedrock depth, strongly influence the evolution and persistence of simulated groundwater and require careful configuration for drought monitoring.

Evaluation↗

Evaluation of a Model-Based Groundwater Drought Indicator in the Conterminous U.S.

Monitoring groundwater drought using land surface models is a valuable alternative given the current lack of systematic in situ measurements at continental and global scales and the low resolution of current remote sensing based groundwater data. However, uncertainties inherent to land surface models may impede drought detection, and thus should be assessed using independent data sources. In this study, we evaluated a groundwater drought index (GWI) derived from monthly groundwater storage output from the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) using a GWI similarly derived from in situ groundwater observations. Groundwater observations were obtained from unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in eight regions of the central and northeastern U.S. Regional average GWI derived from CLSM exhibited strong correlation with that from observation wells, with correlation coefficients between 0.43 and 0.92. GWI from both in situ data and CLSM was generally better correlated with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at 12 and 24 month timescales than at shorter timescales, but it varied depending on climate conditions. The correlation between CLSM derived GWI and SPI generally decreases with increasing depth to the water table, which in turn depends on both bedrock depth (a CLSM parameter) and mean annual precipitation. The persistence of CLSM derived GWI is spatially varied and again shows a strong influence of depth to groundwater. CLSM derived GWI generally persists longer than GWI derived from in situ data, due at least in part to the inability of coarse model inputs to capture high frequency meteorological variability at local scales. The study also showed that groundwater can have a significant impact on soil moisture persistence where the water table is shallow. Soil moisture persistence was estimated to be longer in the eastern U.S. than in the west, in contrast to previous findings that were based on models that did not represent groundwater. Assimilation of terrestrial water storage data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission improved the correlation between CLSM based regional average GWI and that based on in situ data in six of the eight regions. Practical issues regarding the application of GRACE assimilated groundwater storage for drought detection are discussed. An important conclusion of this study is that model parameters that control the depth to the water table, including bedrock depth, strongly influence the evolution and persistence of simulated groundwater and require careful configuration for drought monitoring.

hydrology↗

Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this behavior can be maintained over increasing and sustained environmental change. Also, the problem is much more complex than described by the current processes captured in our model. We have taken some important and interesting steps, and our model does demonstrate how local scale information about individual stop-over sites can be linked into the migratory flyway as a whole. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect different climate change scenarios

Smith, James A.↗

Vertical resolution of temperature profiles obtained from remote radiation measurements

The Backus-Gilbert theory is applied to the problem of the vertical sounding of the atmosphere by means of remote radiation measurements. An application is made to spectral intervals 2.8/cm wide in the 667/cm band of CO2, and tradeoff curves are presented which quantitatively define the relationship between intrinsic vertical resolution and random error in temperature profile estimates. It is found that for a 1-2K random error with state-of-the-art instrumentation, the intrinsic vertical resolution ranges from approximately 0.5 local scale height (l.s.h.) in the lower troposphere to 2 l.s.h. in the upper stratosphere with approximately 2 l.s.h. resolution in the vicinity of the tropopause. These values are somewhat smaller than the widths of the radiactive transfer kernels at similar levels. Increasing the number of spectral intervals from 7 to 16 is found to produce only a marginal improvement in vertical resolution.

Conrath, B. J.↗

Vertical resolution of temperature profiles obtained from remote radiation measurements

The Backus-Gilbert theory, originally developed for analysis of inversion problems associated with the physics of the solid earth, was applied to the problem of the vertical sounding of the atmosphere by means of remote radiation measurements. An application was made to spectral intervals 2.8/cm wide in the 667/cm band CO2, and tradeoff curves are presented which quantitatively define the relationship between intrinsic vertical resolution and random error in temperature profile estimates. It is found that for a 1-2 K random error with state-of-the-art instrumentation, the intrinsic vertical resolution ranges from approximately 0.5 locale scale height (l.s.h.) in the lower troposphere to greater than 2 l.s.h. in the upper stratosphere with approximately 1 l.s.h. resolution in the vicinity of the tropopause. These values are somewhat smaller than the widths of the radioactive transfer kernels at similar levels. Increasing the number of spectral intervals from 7 to 16 is found to produce only a marginal improvement in vertical resolution.

Conrath, B. J.↗

Solar electric low-thrust Mercury orbiter missions.

Results of a preliminary study of unmanned Mercury orbiter missions which might be flown in the early 1980s. Five different levels of orbiter size and complexity are considered, ranging from a small orbiter carrying 22 kg of low data-rate instruments to a dual satellite mission employing 110 kg of science instruments emphasizing regional and local scale surface imagery. An Intermediate-20 class launch vehicle is required to deliver a minimal surface-imaging science package into Mercury orbit using a ballistic mission mode. Employment of a 15 kW solar electric low-thrust stage permits delivery of the more capable dual satellite package with a Titan IIID (5)/Centaur.

Klopp, D. A.↗

Lunar evolution - How well do we know it now.

The currently known astronomical, chemical, and magnetic data are not uniquely indicative of an extensively and globally molten moon. It is argued that an accretional layering occurred in the moon, but at temperatures below solidus. The excess mass in the near side of the moon compatible with a 2-km displacement in the center of mass relative to the center of figure and the moment of inertia data is considered to be due to Fe-FeS liquid formation and inhomogeneous segregation. These Fe-FeS bodies, termed 'fescons,' are shown to be capable of accounting for the presently available magnetization data, by acting as small regenerative dynamos with a time-stability less than that of the terrestrial equivalent. The chemical characteristics of the highly differentiated materials, are considered to be due to small-scale localized melting caused by collisional events, from sources in which accessory phases play a significant role. Mare basalts are considered to be melts in the overlying material produced at a later time by K-40 radioactivity in the fescons. Some consequences of the present hypothesis are suggested. It is concluded that these and other characteristics of the lunar materials are reconcilable with a 'cold' moon, such as discussed by Urey over the past two decades.

Murthy, V. R.↗

Boundary and object detection in real world images

A solution to the problem of automatic location of objects in digital pictures by computer is presented. A self-scaling local edge detector which can be applied in parallel on a picture is described. Clustering algorithms and boundary following algorithms which are sequential in nature process the edge data to locate images of objects.

Yakimovsky, Y.↗

Multidisciplinary applications of ERTS and Skylab data in Ohio

Experimental studies of ERTS-1 and Skylab earth resources data, in combination with correlative aircraft and on-site data, for environmental quality, land use, and resource management applications in Ohio show several areas of operational promise. Prime data use candidates demonstrated to date include definition and enforcement of surface mining (all minerals) legislation; Lake Erie modeling/management; land use classification and mapping studies at state, regional, and localized levels; and resources' inventories particularly of forested areas on both regional (multicounty) and localized scales.

Sweet, D. C.↗

Labile and nonlabile element relationships among Apollo 17 samples

Volatile and nonvolatile trace element contents in a suite of Apollo 17 soils and rocks are studied. It is found that the halogens exhibit a remarkable degree of coherence because of their apparent diverse geochemistry, that the F-Cl-P2O5 coherence previously noted persists among Apollo 17 samples, that both U and Ru-Os support lateral mixing of regolith on a local scale, and that the meteoritic Ru/Os ratios found in a few samples are attributed to primitive lunar material that has not been extensively recycled.

Jovanovic, S.↗

Martian atmospheric lee waves

Areas of extensive mountain lee wave phenomenon in the northern midlatitudes during late winter are observed in Mariner 9 television pictures of Mars. The lee wave pattern is due to the discrete spectrum of waves generated by a crater ridge in an airstream. The cloud patterns resulting from the waves generated by the flow across a mountain or crater are dependent on the velocity profile of the airstream and the vertical stability of the atmosphere. A two-layer velocity model of the airstream is used in calculations based on the theory of mountain lee waves. Regardless of the simple model used for the airstream, the calculations appear to be capable of reproducing the observed wave patterns. The many observations of lee waves suggest that the near surface wind speeds as implied by the lower stream velocities do not greatly exceed, and most of the time are less than, 40 m/sec in the northern midlatitudes during late winter except possibly on a very localized scale. Results are in agreement with circulation models, especially the Leovy and Mintz (1969) two-layer numerical model.

Pirraglia, J. A.↗

Chemistry of agglutinate fractions in lunar soils

Agglutinates are aggregates of crystalline grains and lithic fragments bonded together by glass. It is thought that glassy agglutinates are formed at the upper surface of the lunar regolith by impact-related melting and welding of soil particles, in response to meteoroid and micrometeoroid bombardment. A description is presented of an investigation in which bulk soils were separated into 'agglutinate' and 'nonagglutinate' fractions. The obtained fractions were analyzed for major, minor, and trace elements. The obtained chemical data for agglutinate and nonagglutinate fractions of lunar soils indicate that agglutinitic glass is enriched in mafic and most lithophile elements relative to the bulk soils. A model involving preferential melting and assimilation of mesostasis material and mafic soil components is proposed to account for the observed chemical data. It is suggested that glassy agglutinates may form more readily in mafic soils than in more feldspathic ones. Such selectivity should be most effective between mare and highland soils, but may possibly operate on a more local scale.

Rhodes, J. M.↗

On the charge polarization of cosmic systems

The positive electric charge density associated with the internal electric fields of self-gravitating systems in hydrostatic equilibrium can be canceled by nearby external flowing plasmas, such as winds. For example, it can be shown that the positive electric charge of a star is likely to be completely screened by its stellar wind. Because winds and other nonstatic phenomena are widespread, the electrical polarization due to the positive charge on static systems such as stars should occur on relatively local scales, in contrast to the universal scale recently suggested by Bally and Harrison. The latter viewpoint would be correct only if the entire universe were in strict hydrostatic equilibrium.

Barnes, A.↗

The influence of topographic structures on night-time surface temperatures: Evaluation of a satellite thermal image of the upper Rhine plain and the surrounding highlands

The author has identified the following significant results. Satellite data supplied the same information as aerial IR registrations with corresponding averaging for all studies requiring a survey of the thermal pattern within an area measuring 10 km x 10 km ore more, provided that sufficiently precise control points could be established for the purpose of geometric rectification in the surroundings of the area observed. Satellite thermal data are more comprehensive than aircraft data for studies on a regional, rather than a local scale, since airborne images often obscure the basic correlation in thermal patterns because of a variety of irrelevant topographical detail. The satellite data demonstrate the dependence of surface temperature on relief more clearly than comparable airborne imagery.

Gossmann, H.↗