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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Observational benchmarks inform representation of soil organic carbon dynamics in land surface models

Abstract. Representing soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon–climate feedbacks. Machine learning models can help identify dominant environmental controllers and establish their functional relationships with SOC stocks. The resulting knowledge can be integrated into ESMs to reduce uncertainty and improve predictions of SOC dynamics over space and time. In this study, we used a large number of SOC field observations (n=54 000), geospatial datasets of environmental factors (n=46), and two machine learning approaches (namely random forest, RF, and generalized additive modeling, GAM) to (1) identify dominant environmental controllers of global and biome-specific SOC stocks, (2) derive functional relationships between environmental controllers and SOC stocks, and (3) compare the identified environmental controllers and predictive relationships with those in models used in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Our results showed that the diurnal temperature, drought index, cation exchange capacity, and precipitation were important observed environmental predictors of global SOC stocks. While the RF model identified 14 environmental factors that describe climatic, vegetation, and edaphic conditions as important predictors of global SOC stocks (R2=0.61, RMSE = 0.46 kg m−2), current ESMs oversimplify the relationships between environmental factors and SOC, with precipitation, temperature, and net primary productivity explaining > 96 % of the variability in ESM-modeled SOC stocks. Further, our study revealed notable disparities among the functional relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks simulated by ESMs compared with observed relationships. To improve SOC representations in ESMs, it is imperative to incorporate additional environmental controls, such as the cation exchange capacity, and refine the functional relationships to align more closely with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

RNA Splicing Events in Circulation Distinguish Individuals With and Without New-onset Type 1 Diabetes

Context: Alterations in RNA splicing may influence protein isoform diversity that contributes to or reflects the pathophysiology of certain diseases. Whereas specific RNA splicing events in pancreatic islets have been investigated in models of inflammation in vitro, how RNA splicing in the circulation correlates with or is reflective of type 1 diabetes (T1D) disease pathophysiology in humans remains unexplored. Objective: To use machine learning to investigate if alternative RNA splicing events differ between individuals with and without new-onset T1D and to determine if these splicing events provide insight into T1D pathophysiology. Methods: RNA deep sequencing was performed on whole blood samples from 2 independent cohorts: a training cohort consisting of 12 individuals with new-onset T1D and 12 age- and sex-matched nondiabetic controls and a validation cohort of the same size and demographics. Machine learning analysis was used to identify specific isoforms that could distinguish individuals with T1D from controls. Results: Distinct patterns of RNA splicing differentiated participants with T1D from unaffected controls. Notably, certain splicing events, particularly involving retained introns, showed significant association with T1D. Machine learning analysis using these splicing events as features from the training cohort demonstrated high accuracy in distinguishing between T1D subjects and controls in the validation cohort. Gene Ontology pathway enrichment analysis of the retained intron category showed evidence for a systemic viral response in T1D subjects. Conclusion: Alternative RNA splicing events in whole blood are significantly enriched in individuals with new-onset T1D and can effectively distinguish these individuals from unaffected controls. Further, our findings also suggest that RNA splicing profiles offer the potential to provide insights into disease pathogenesis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Virtual Growth of SRF Materials: A Machine Learning Approach to Predict the Crystalline Structural Ordering in Nb Surface Oxides

Niobium's native surface oxide affects SRF cavity and superconducting qubit performance, motivating interest in controlling its crystalline structure. We combine a literature-derived machine-learning analysis with temperature-dependent XRD to study crystalline ordering in Nb2O5. Random Forest models, trained on 74 processing conditions from 17 papers and validated by leave-one-group-out cross-validation, predicted broad crystallinity outcomes well (balanced accuracy 0.809), but struggled with specific polymorph identity (0.577). Annealing temperature was the dominant predictor across all targets; oxygen partial pressure showed negligible importance, reflecting narrow literature coverage rather than physical irrelevance. Temperature-dependent XRD on anodized and H2O2-treated Niobium showed structural evolution consistent with the machine learning predictions. Our model and overall approach provide a data-driven framework for identifying and optimizing conditions that promote crystallization in initially amorphous oxides. This framework can guide the selection of growth and post-annealing conditions for Nb surfaces by narrowing the experimental parameter space, thereby reducing trial-and-error efforts in developing oxide structures relevant to SRF applications.

Tilkin, Anthony [Unlisted, US, IL; Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Intelligent Solar Control Software Through Hardware-in-the-Loop (CRADA Final Report)

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been developed by Latimer Controls, Inc. to estimate the headroom of large PV plants for grid operation and control; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. Latimer Controls, Inc. received two voucher awards for research at a national laboratory from the Department of Energy American Made Solar Prize Round 6. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected to collaborate with Latimer staff to conduct a performance evaluation of Latimer PV control software. The NREL team will develop a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed to perform testing and validation of the Latimer PV control technology in a de-risked yet realistic testbed environment. Latimer and NREL worked together to analyze the test data, draw conclusions from the results, and disseminate the resulting scientific findings. In this CRADA work, we propose to test and validate the real-world application of the Latimer Control solution in an HIL environment. We evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. In particular, a data-driven potential high limit (PHL) estimation is developed for large solar plants to accurately estimate their headroom so that they have fast and short-time regulation and control capability to participate in grid services and respond to grid signals in real time (e.g., AGC). This PHL estimation algorithm is embedded in a hardware power plant controller (PPC) and tested with an IEEE-39 bus system model developed in RTDS. To account for the varying cloud conditions and diverse inverter dispatches, we developed a 135-MW PV plant with detailed modeling of 27 individual PV modules and inverters using RTDS. The real-world communications used in such big plants, such as ModBus TCP/IP for inverter level and DNP3 for plant level, were developed to emulate the real-world applications in big PV plants. The ML-based PHL estimation method is tested under nine separate weather scenarios against the ‘reference-control’ solution, hereafter referred to as the baseline solution. The baseline method reserves a subset of inverters (reference group) to operate at their PHL at all times and dispatches only the remaining inverters (control group) at curtailed levels to fulfill the flexibility need. Despite being successfully piloted by NREL in California in 2017 and Chile in 2020, there exist two gaps in the state of the art to fully unlock the flexibility of PV plants: a. There is a trade-off between the PHL estimation accuracy and the flexibility range. b. There lacks granularity in the PHL estimation to capture the variation across inverters. The Latimer solution seeks to address these gaps by applying machine learning methods to improve PHL estimation accuracy while accounting for variability at every inverter. Performance metrics were taken from the 2023 Georgia Power CARES utility-scale RFP. The results demonstrate that the ML-based approach outperforms the traditional baseline method in PHL estimation accuracy for 7 of 9 scenarios. The average PHL error across the nine scenarios was 7.40% for the ML-based method, 2.06% less than the 9.46% PHL error average across scenarios that was exhibited by the baseline method. Additionally, the PHL error was below 5% for at least 95% of the testing interval for 3 of 9 tested intervals with the ML approach, whereas it did not achieve this metric for any of the baseline tests. Overall, simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional baseline reference-control approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency. This laboratory HIL testing using real PPC, representative power system simulation models in real-time with detailed PV plant and inverter models, and real-world communication protocols gives us confidence that this machine learning based PHL estimation algorithm works well in the hardware PPC and therefore de-risks future field commissioning. The end goal of this project is to advance grid technology to address the grid operation challenges brought by solar plant’s variability and uncertainties in power generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum-Inspired Bayesian Sampling for Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning (Final Technical Report)

With increasing simulation and measurement data, machine learning and artificial intelligence have been widely used in computational decision-making of complex engineering systems. The resulting tools, such as uncertainty quantification solvers, reinforcement learning, and physics-informed machine learning, have achieved great success in critical DOE tasks such as material discovery and design, energy system modeling and control, and numerical weather and climate prediction. A core topic in scientific machine learning and artificial intelligence is Bayesian inference: given an observed data set, people want to estimate the posterior distribution of a (possibly large) number of hidden parameters. Due to the flexibility and weak assumptions, Bayesian sampling has been the mainstream Bayesian inference solvers despite the rapid progress of approximate Bayesian inference. Classical Bayesian sampling methods such as Markov-chain Monte Carlo suffer from a low-acceptance rate due to the random walk nature, therefore state-of-the-art techniques use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants to efficiently draw posterior samples in a high dimension. The key idea of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants is to simulate the Hamiltonian dynamics of a classical particle with a fixed mass, and their performance significantly degrades when the posterior distribution is highly spiky or has multiple modes. Leveraging the idea of quantum physics, this project has investigated new theory, algorithms and applications of Bayesian inference (especially Bayesian sampling). The main results include: (1) novel quantum-inspired Bayesian sampling methods that can lead to better accuracy for challenging multi-modal or spiky distributions, (2) more scalable machine learning framework leveraging tensor-compressed Bayesian inference, and (3) Bayesian and sampling approaches for verifying the robustness of continuous and binary neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for top squarks in final states with many light-flavor jets and 0, 1, or 2 charged leptons in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

Several new physics models including versions of supersymmetry (SUSY) characterized by R-parity violation (RPV) or with additional hidden sectors predict the production of events with top quarks, low missing transverse momentum, and many additional quarks or gluons. The results of a search for top squarks decaying to two top quarks and six additional light-flavor quarks or gluons are reported. The search employs a novel machine learning method for background estimation from control samples in data using decorrelated discriminators. The search is performed using events with 0, 1, or 2 electrons or muons in conjunction with at least six jets. No requirement is placed on the magnitude of the missing transverse momentum. The result is based on a sample of proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV corresponding to 138 fb −1 of integrated luminosity collected with the CMS detector at the LHC in 2016–2018. With no statistically significant excess of events observed beyond the expected contributions from the standard model, the data are used to determine upper limits on the top squark pair production cross section in the frameworks of RPV and stealth SUSY. Models with top squark masses less than 700 (930) GeV are excluded at 95% confidence level for RPV (stealth) SUSY scenarios.

Hadron-Hadron Scattering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mind the gap: Bridging the divide between AI aspirations and the reality of autonomous microscopy

What does materials science look like in the “Age of Artificial Intelligence?” Each material’s domain—synthesis, characterization, and modeling—has a different answer to this question, motivated by unique challenges and constraints. This work focuses on the tremendous potential of autonomous characterization within electron microscopy. We present our recent advancements in developing domain-aware, multimodal models for microscopy analysis capable of describing complex atomic systems. We then address the critical gap between the theoretical promise of autonomous microscopy and its current practical limitations, showcasing recent successes while highlighting the necessary developments to achieve robust, real-world autonomy.

2D materials↗
DOE OSTI2024

Four-dimensional phase-space reconstruction of flat and magnetized beams using neural networks and differentiable simulations

Beams with cross-plane coupling or extreme asymmetries between the two transverse phase spaces are often encountered in particle accelerators. Flat beams with large transverse-emittance ratios are critical for future linear colliders. Similarly, magnetized beams with significant cross-plane coupling are expected to enhance the performance of electron cooling in hadron beams. Preparing these beams requires precise control and characterization of the four-dimensional transverse phase space. In this study, we employ generative phase-space reconstruction techniques to rapidly characterize magnetized and flat-beam phase-space distributions using a conventional quadrupole-scan method. The reconstruction technique is experimentally demonstrated on an electron beam produced at the Argonne Wakefield Accelerator and successfully benchmarked against conventional diagnostics techniques. Specifically, we show that predicted beam parameters from the reconstructed phase-space distributions (e.g., as magnetization and flat-beam emittances) are in excellent agreement with those measured from the conventional diagnostic methods. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Crossing the Finish Line: Integration of Data-Driven Process Control for Maximization of Energy and Resource Efficiency in Advanced Water Resource Recovery Facilities

Improvements in process monitoring and control at water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs) could result in reductions in electricity consumption, chemical inputs, and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as improved energy recovery. Many current WRRF data collection, monitoring, and control approaches use 20th century process monitoring and control systems, which require large design safety factors to ensure reliability in the absence of more advanced, precise controls. Implementation of more modern data-driven control tools could lead to more efficient operations that provide intrinsic reliability with better overall process performance at full-scale. This project (1) developed and demonstrated data-driven process controls at full-scale facilities for five promising WRRF process technologies that provide whole-plant approaches and offer substantial energy and resource recovery benefits, and (2) created a Machine Learning (ML) Toolkit and an implementation guide of new process control approaches that walks users through each step of the ML workflow and illustrates the steps through case study examples.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrate Latimer Controls' Solution into RTAC (CRADA Final Report, CRD-23-24672)

Latimer Controls, Inc. was awarded two vouchers under the Department of Energy's American-Made Solar Prize Round 6 to conduct collaborative research at a national laboratory. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected as a partner to assist Latimer Controls in the performance evaluation of its photovoltaic (PV) control software. This collaboration focuses on developing a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed at NREL, which will be used to test and validate the Latimer PV control technology in a realistic yet de-risked environment. Both Latimer and NREL teams will work together to analyze the collected test data, derive insights, and disseminate the scientific findings. Recent studies underscore the potential of solar energy as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource within the bulk power system, particularly when integrated with advanced control systems. To enhance the performance of such systems, Latimer Controls has developed leading-edge technologies, including machine learning (ML) algorithms and hierarchical inverter set-point allocation methods. These innovations are designed to estimate the operational headroom of large PV plants for grid integration and control. However, comprehensive validation under real-world conditions remains necessary. To address this gap, the concurrent CRADA project proposes the real-world application and validation of the Latimer Control solution within a HIL environment. Initially, the Latimer algorithm was developed and tested within MATLAB Simulink, a platform suitable for research-level simulations and iterative development. However, transitioning this technology to a real solar site as an industry-ready solution necessitates implementation in a format compatible with widely used solar power plant controllers. In this additional CRADA work, the MATLAB Simulink-based logic will be translated into Structured Text, a programming language compliant with IEC 61131 standards, which is commonly used for custom logic implementations in industry-leading programmable logic controllers (PLCs), such as the Schweitzer SEL real-time automation controller (RTAC). This transition will facilitate the deployment of the Latimer Control solution in real-world solar power plants, thereby advancing the technology towards commercialization.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fracture Networks Imaging in CO2 Injection Zones in IBDP Site: An Unsupervised Machine Learning Application with Multiple Datasets

This is the conference paper accompanying a poster presentation at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24 , 2024. This work highlights the integration of unsupervised machine learning (ML) techniques as a transformative tool for advancing understanding of CO2 injection into reservoirs that could potentially contribute to optimizing injection strategies and reservoir management, ultimately bolstering the efficacy and sustainability of CO2 storage.

Kumar, Abhash↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Deep Learning Approach for In-Network Synchrophasor Missing Data Recovery Using Programmable Network Switches

Phasor measurement unit (PMU) networks deliver accurate and timely measurements, which is essential for managing today’s electric power systems. To ensure data quality and enhance the cyber-resilience of PMU networks against malicious attacks and data errors, this study presents an online PMU missing data recovery scheme by leveraging P4 programmable switches. The data plane incorporates a customized PMU protocol parser that abstracts the necessary payload data for recovery. Recovery processes are executed in the control plane using a pre-trained machine learning model. Both traditional and advanced ML models, such as transformer and TimeGPT, are explicitly employed for data prediction. This approach ensures rapid and precise data recovery. Performance evaluations focus on recovery speed and accuracy, using a real dataset from a campus microgrid. With 20% missing PMU data, the mean absolute percentage error for voltage magnitude is 0.0384%, and the phase angle error discrepancy is approximately 0.4064%.

Phasor Measurement Unit, Machine Learning, Program↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trust-Based Detection and Mitigation of Cyber Attacks in Distributed Cooperative Control of Islanded AC Microgrids

In this study, we address the challenge of detecting and mitigating cyber attacks in the distributed cooperative control of islanded AC microgrids, with a particular focus on detecting False Data Injection Attacks (FDIAs), a significant threat to the Smart Grid (SG). The SG integrates traditional power systems with communication networks, creating a complex system with numerous vulnerable links, making it a prime target for cyber attacks. These attacks can lead to the disclosure of private data, control network failures, and even blackouts. Unlike machine learning-based approaches that require extensive datasets and mathematical models dependent on accurate system modeling, our method is free from such dependencies. To enhance the microgrid’s resilience against these threats, we propose a resilient control algorithm by introducing a novel trustworthiness parameter into the traditional cooperative control algorithm. Our method evaluates the trustworthiness of distributed energy resources (DERs) based on their voltage measurements and exchanged information, using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to dynamically adjust control actions. We validated our approach through simulations on both the IEEE-34 bus feeder system with eight DERs and a larger microgrid with twenty-two DERs. The results demonstrated a detection accuracy of around 100%, with millisecond range mitigation time, ensuring rapid system recovery. Additionally, our method improved system stability by up to almost 100% under attack scenarios, showcasing its effectiveness in promptly detecting attacks and maintaining system resilience. These findings highlight the potential of our approach to enhance the security and stability of microgrid systems in the face of cyber threats.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cyberattack Detection and Mitigation on Central Volt‐VAr Using Circuit Law and Machine Learning

ABSTRACT In a distribution grid, voltage is maintained within a nominal range through a Volt‐VAr function that controls capacitor banks, reactive power of distributed energy resources (DER), and on‐load tap changers (OLTC). Availability of communications helps with the implementation of central Volt‐VAr control; however, it also opens the system to cyberattacks, causing voltage disturbances. Previous work has shown the adverse impacts of false data injection (FDI) on the central Volt‐VAr control; however, very few works have studied methods to detect and mitigate FDI on Volt‐VAr control. This paper addresses gaps in the detection and mitigation of FDI on the measurement packets of a central Volt‐VAr control. This work uses a two‐stage algorithm for cyberattack detection since the accuracy of a single‐stage machine learning (ML)–based detection method decreases while dealing with unseen data. The first stage is based on the verification of measurements against circuit laws, and the second stage utilizes a tree search algorithm and an ML method to detect the falsified data. This paper compares long short‐term memory (LSTM) and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) as the employed ML algorithms. Finally, the mitigation algorithm replaces the falsified data with the estimated output of the ML algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed method is tested for several cases using the IEEE 13‐bus test system in PSCAD software.

Beikbabaei, Milad [Bradley Department of Electrica↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fast Adaptive Neural Control of Resonant Extraction at Fermilab

We present the development of a machine learning (ML) based regulation system for third-order resonant beam extraction in the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab. Classical and ML-based controllers have been optimized using semi-analytic simulations and evaluated in terms of regulation performance and training efficiency. We compare several controller architectures and discuss the integration of neural control into an adaptive framework. We also present progress on surrogate models that predict the controller response given a spill intensity and controller action history. To enable real-time deployment, we report progress on implementing low-latency, edge-based inference suitable for hardware-constrained environments. Our results demonstrate the feasibility and advantages of ML-based control in managing complex, time-varying physical systems, with broader implications for accelerator operations and other domains requiring fast, adaptive regulation.

Berlioz, Jose Rene [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-contrast machine learning improves schistosomiasis diagnostic performance

Schistosomiasis currently affects over 250 million people and remains a public health burden despite ongoing global control efforts. Conventional microscopy is a practical tool for diagnosis and screening ofSchistosoma haematobium, but identification of eggs requires a skilled microscopist. Here we present a machine learning (ML)-based strategy for automated detection ofS. haematobiumthat combines two imaging contrasts, brightfield (BF) and darkfield (DF), to improve diagnostic performance. We collected BF and DF images of urine samples, many of them containingS. haematobiumeggs, during two different field studies in Côte d’Ivoire using a mobile phone-based microscope, the SchistoScope. We then trained separate egg-detection ML models and compared the patient-level performance of BF and DF models alone to combinations of BF and DF models, using annotations from trained microscopists as the gold standard. We found that models trained on DF images, and almost all BF and DF combinations, performed significantly better than models trained on BF images only. When models were trained on images from the first field study (n = 349 patients, 748 images of each contrast), patient-level classification performance on patient images from the second study (n = 375 patients, 752 images of each contrast) met the WHO Diagnostic Target Product Profile (TPP) sensitivity and specificity for the monitoring and evaluation use case (sensitivity for all models and combinations was >75% when evaluated at a confidence score threshold that resulted in specificity >96.5%). When we used images from both field studies for the training set, performance of the models was improved. Overall, this work shows that the use of DF and BF increases the performance of ML models on images from devices with low-cost optics, while retaining the portability, power, and time-to-results of the WHO’s diagnostic TPP. DF requires no additional sample preparation and does not increase the complexity of the imaging system. It thus offers a practical means to improve performance of automated diagnostics forS. haematobiumas well as other microscopy-based diagnostics.

Infectious Diseases↗
DOE OSTI2026

Microsecond-latency feedback at a particle accelerator by online reinforcement learning on hardware

The commissioning and operation of future large-scale scientific experiments will challenge current tuning and control methods. Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are a promising solution due to their ability to dynamically adapt to changing environments and consider delayed consequences. In many real-world applications, RL policies must produce actions in real time, often within microseconds to milliseconds, imposing significant constraints on system latency and computational overhead that conventional machine learning libraries are not designed to handle. To control phenomena in real time at these timescales, RL needs to be deployed on-the-edge, namely on dedicated hardware located near the system it controls, without relying on a host CPU or cloud-based inference. In this work we present the design and deployment of an experience accumulator system in a particle accelerator. In this system, deep-RL algorithms run using hardware acceleration and act within a few microseconds, enabling the use of RL for control of phenomena like beam instabilities. The training uses the collected data offline to reduce the number of operations carried out on the acceleration hardware. The proposed architecture was tested in real experimental conditions at the Karlsruhe research accelerator, a synchrotron light source, where the system was used to control artificially induced horizontal betatron oscillations in real-time, with a control loop period of just 2.7 μs. The results showed a performance comparable to the commercial feedback system available at the accelerator, demonstrating the viability and potential of this approach. Due to the self-learning and reconfiguration capability of this implementation, a seamless application to other control problems is possible. Applications range from particle accelerators to large-scale research and industrial facilities.

FPGA↗
DOE OSTI2024

Projecting Large Fires in the Western US With an Interpretable and Accurate Hybrid Machine Learning Method

More frequent and widespread large fires are occurring in the western United States (US), yet reliable methods for predicting these fires, particularly with extended lead times and a high spatial resolution, remain challenging. In this study, we proposed an interpretable and accurate hybrid machine learning (ML) model, that explicitly represented the controls of fuel flammability, fuel availability, and human suppression effects on fires. The model demonstrated notable accuracy with a F 1 -score of 0.846 ± 0.012, surpassing process-driven fire danger indices and four commonly used ML models by up to 40% and 9%, respectively. More importantly, the ML model showed remarkably higher interpretability relative to other ML models. Specifically, by demystifying the “black box” of each ML model using the explainable AI techniques, we identified substantial structural differences across ML fire models, even among those with similar accuracy. The relationships between fires and their drivers, identified by our model, were aligned closer with established fire physical principles. The ML structural discrepancy led to diverse fire predictions and our model predictions exhibited greater consistency with actual fire occurrence. With the highly interpretable and accurate model, we revealed the strong compound effects from multiple climate variables related to evaporative demand, energy release component, temperature, and wind speed, on the dynamics of large fires and megafires in the western US. Our findings highlight the importance of assessing the structural integrity of models in addition to their accuracy. They also underscore the critical need to address the rise in compound climate extremes linked to large wildfires.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗