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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine

The Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) is software tool written in python, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) that provides an easily accessible application-programming-interface (API) to performing resource dispatch optimization analysis for integrated energy system (IES) configurations. DOVE is an integral part of the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) software suite and is leveraged by codes such as the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) and the Optimization of Real-Time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). The philosophy behind DOVE is to provide a modular software solution to IES planning and operation by utilizing state-of-the-art algorithms and machine learning. The goal is to accurately capture the dispatching behavior of a complex energy system given varying time-dependent signals for demand and commodity pricing.

McDowell, DylanJ. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)↗
DOE OSTI2026

ML–Enabled FPGA Framework for Fast Quantum State Discrimination in Mid-Circuit Measurement Regimes

Accurate and low-latency quantum state discrimination is essential for protocols involving mid-circuit measurement (MCM) and conditional feed-forward. In superconducting quantum systems, conventional readout pipelines transfer measurement data to host processors for post-processing, introducing millisecond-scale delays that far exceed qubit coherence times. To overcome this bottleneck, we present an in-situ machine learning (ML) inference engine implemented on an FPGA for real-time quantum state discrimination. Our design performs inference directly on digitized readout signals with 40 ns latency, supports both qubit and qutrit readout, and enables conditional operations without host-side intervention. This capability is critical for MCM and for feedback-driven protocols such as quantum error correction. We validate the system on superconducting transmon hardware, demonstrating robust discrimination fidelity across multiple qubit and qutrit channels. We further demonstrate conditional qutrit logic driven by FPGA-resident classification, highlighting the potential of low-latency ML-on-FPGA control for NISQ applications and scalable fault-tolerant quantum computing.

Vora, Neel [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2025

End-to-End Workflow for Machine-Learning-Based Qubit Readout With QICK and hls4ml

In this article, we present an end-to-end workflow for superconducting qubit readout that embeds codesigned neural networks into the quantum instrumentation control kit (QICK). Capitalizing on the custom firmware and software of the QICK platform, which is built on Xilinx radiofrequency system-on-chip field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), we aim to leverage machine learning (ML) to address critical challenges in qubit readout accuracy and scalability. The workflow utilizes the hls4ml package and employs quantization-aware training to translate ML models into hardware-efficient FPGA implementations via user-friendly Python application programming interfaces. We experimentally demonstrate the design, optimization, and integration of an ML algorithm for single transmon qubit readout, achieving 96% single-shot fidelity with a latency of 32.25 ns and less than 16% FPGA lookup table resource utilization. Our results offer the community an accessible workflow to advance ML-driven readout and adaptive control in quantum information processing applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Challenges and Vision for Standardization of Biopolymer Data Sets for Machine Learning

Machine learning (ML) is transforming materials research, yet potential for biopolymer discovery remains constrained by fragmented data and nonstandardized reporting. Biopolymers differ significantly from synthetic polymers, requiring specialized approaches to represent their biosynthetic origins, hierarchical structures, and application-specific metrics. In this Perspective, we identify three core challenges limiting biopolymer representation: information encoding, data quality, and data sharing. We describe the most pressing issues and propose commensurate approaches to address each key challenge. Recommendations include the design and adoption of biopolymer-specific fingerprinting and representation frameworks, development of hybrid human-large language model (LLM) data extraction strategies, and expanding Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable (FAIR)-compliant repositories. We propose a robust foundation to define interoperable, high-quality data sets that capture the full context of biopolymer materials. Standardized metadata, shared ontologies, and community-driven infrastructure would enable scalable, reproducible workflows and accelerate the ML-driven development of biopolymers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Novel artificial neural network model for instantaneous power losses and operational efficiency mapping of MW-scale vanadium redox flow battery for improved technoeconomic analysis

A novel data-driven, machine-learning-based method for modeling the instantaneous power losses of a distribution-sited 2 MW/8MWh vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB), a grid-scale electrochemical storage technology, is introduced and compared against benchmark empirical modeling approaches, including symmetric and asymmetric models, as well as a recent convex hull modeling approach. The novel loss modeling method introduces several advantages over the benchmark models and over simplistic efficiency estimates, the most significant of which is that the model can accurately reflect the stepwise and non-linear parasitic losses associated with the duty cycles of mechanical auxiliary systems like pump motor drives and blower fans. Residuals of the models are compared; the proposed data driven model features significantly improved accuracy over the benchmark models. The model's coefficient of determination is also improved relative to that of the benchmark models. Furthermore, a novel method for visualization of operational efficiency of the grid-scale storage technology is introduced. To demonstrate the benefits of the novel data-driven method for modeling the VRFB, the benchmark models and the proposed models are embedded into an Open DSS distribution network model to study two applications of the grid-scale electrical storage system: load leveling for grid support and energy arbitrage. This article demonstrates that the accuracy of the instantaneous power loss model significantly impacts the understanding of the state of charge of the VRFB. In turn, the accuracy of the efficiency modeling of the VRFB impacts the understanding of the potential economic value and technical benefits to the distribution network operators. In conclusion, the presented power loss modeling approach is, therefore, highly relevant for utility-stakeholders, battery asset owners, system engineers, system designers, and financial planners interested in evaluating or optimizing the operation of grid-scale VRFBs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Moltensaltpropnet

MoltenSaltPropnet is a physics-informed machine learning framework that aims to predict the thermophysical properties of molten fluoride and chloride salt mixtures, which are crucial for the design and safety of Generation IV molten salt reactors. The code processes data from the Molten-Salt Thermal Properties Database (MSTDB-TP) and the Janz compendium, converting critically evaluated correlations into fast, differentiable surrogate models for density, viscosity, thermal conductivity, and heat capacity across 448 distinct salt systems. The implementation consists of several key components: 1. Data Curation: The code parses and cleans the raw data, normalizing elemental mole fractions and extracting relevant regression coefficients for various thermophysical properties. 2. Feature Engineering: It generates fixed-length numerical descriptors that encapsulate the composition and temperature, incorporating polynomial interaction terms and dimensionality-reduction techniques to optimize model performance. 3. Coefficient Learning: Four different machine learning architectures are employed: a deep residual network (ResNet), a Kolmogorov–Arnold network (KAN), a sparsity-inducing neural network (SNN), and classical regression models. Each model learns to predict coefficients that define the temperature-dependent correlations for the thermophysical properties. 4. Property Reconstruction: The predicted coefficients are used to compute temperature-dependent property values, ensuring positivity and monotonic trends through a composite loss function that enforces physical constraints. 5. User Interface: An open-source web application enables users to filter the database, train task-specific models, and visualize the results, allowing for rapid exploration of candidate salt mixtures. MoltenSaltPropnet bridges the gap between limited experimental data and high-fidelity reactor simulations, providing a powerful tool for researchers in the field of molten salt reactors and advanced nuclear energy systems.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for A Hybrid Biophysical-Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

AI/ML↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting Multi-Step-Ahead Street-Scale Nuisance Flooding using a seq2seq LSTM Surrogate Model for Real-Time Application in a Coastal-Urban City

In coastal-urban cities facing an elevated risk of nuisance flooding (by rain and tide) due to increased heavy rainfall, sea level rise, urbanization, and aging drainage systems, real-time flood forecasting at the street-scale can provide useful information to transportation decision-makers. Physics-Based Models (PBMs) that offer high accuracy come with high computational runtimes and costs that limit their application for real-time flood forecasting. To address this challenge, Machine Learning (ML) surrogate models trained from PBMs have been proposed to provide street-scale flood forecasts. Previous related studies have focused on using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures to model hourly flood depth on streets. While LSTM models can capture input sequences effectively, they fall short in accurately preserving output sequences, limiting their suitability for multi-step-ahead forecasts. The seq2seq LSTM architecture offers a key advantage here by capturing the full sequence of input–output, making it potentially more suitable for multi-step-ahead flood forecasts compared to traditional LSTM models. However, seq2seq LSTM has not been tested for street-scale flood forecasting, particularly for rapidly fluctuating nuisance flooding events which require special attention to its temporal sequences. Hence, in this study, we applied the seq2seq LSTM model to explore multi-step-ahead street-scale nuisance flooding and compared its results to the traditional LSTM model as a benchmark model. LSTM and seq2seq LSTM surrogate models were applied to 22 flood-prone streets in Norfolk, Virginia, as a case study with a 4-hr (short-term) and 8-hr (long-term) lead time. The models were trained with environmental (rainfall and tide) and topographic (elevation, Topographic Wetness Index, and Depth-To-Water) features along with PBM-derived water depths for different storm events. The results demonstrated satisfactory performance of both LSTM and seq2seq LSTM surrogate models throughout the forecast period compared to the PBM. However, the seq2seq LSTM showed lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE)/ Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and higher Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE)/ correlation than the LSTM across most lead times, particularly for long-term forecasting due to its supremacy in handling both input–output sequences together, which is missing in the traditional LSTM. For example, in the long-term, the average RMSE ranges were 0.0268–0.0373 m for LSTM and 0.0226–0.0319 m for seq2seq LSTM, while in the short-term, they were 0.0263–0.0293 m and 0.0261–0.0283 m, respectively. Additionally, while both models exhibited similar performance in distinguishing flooded and non-flooded streets for flood depth ≥ 0.1 m, the seq2seq LSTM model demonstrated superior performance for higher flood depths (such as ≥ 0.2 m and ≥ 0.3 m). Once trained, inference took only 0.09 to 0.11 s (short-term) and 0.30 to 0.35 s (long-term) per storm event for the 22 streets, making the application highly suitable for real-time decision-making during nuisance flood events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Revolutionizing Energy Storage: AI, Automation, and Advanced Modeling as Catalysts for Next-Generation Breakthroughs

The Presidential Symposium (PRES) at the 2025 Fall Meeting, hosted by the President’s Office and Energy and Fuels Division, American Chemical Society (ACS) in Washington, DC, brought together a diverse group of chemists, engineers, and materials scientists working in battery materials & systems, automation and artificial intelligence from academia, industry, and national laboratories. The accelerating demand for high-performance, scalable, and sustainable energy storage has catalyzed a paradigm shift in how materials are dis-covered, devices are engineered, and systems are optimized. This Presidential Symposium, entitled “Revolutionizing Energy Storage: AI, Automation, and Advanced Modeling Driving Next-Gen Breakthroughs”, brings together global leaders to unveil transformative strategies anchored in the AAA framework: Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Advanced Modeling. Artificial Intelligence is redefining the frontiers of energy storage by enabling predictive design, real-time optimization, and intelligent control across diverse chemistries and architectures. Automation is streamlining the synthesis, characterization, and testing of battery materials, dramatically accelerating innovation cycles and unlocking scalable solutions for grid and mobility applications. Advanced Modeling, spanning atomic to system-level scales, provides unprecedented insight into electrochemical dynamics, degradation pathways, and thermal behavior, particularly when coupled with physics-informed machine learning and digital twin technologies. Digital twins, in turn, leverage the AAA framework by integrating real-time data, physics-based models, and AI predictions into dynamic virtual replicas, enabling proactive diagnostics, optimization, and system resilience. Together, these synergistic pillars are not only re-shaping the scientific landscape but also forging a new era of reproducible, data-driven, and resilient energy storage innovation. In conclusion, this symposium marks a pivotal moment in the convergence of computational intelligence and experimental rigor, charting the course for next-generation breakthroughs in lithium-ion, solid-state, and flow battery technologies.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)↗
DOE OSTI2025

One-shot learning for solution operators of partial differential equations

Learning and solving governing equations of a physical system, represented by partial differential equations (PDEs), from data is a central challenge in many areas of science and engineering. Traditional numerical methods can be computationally expensive for complex systems and require complete governing equations. Existing data-driven machine learning methods require large datasets to learn a surrogate solution operator, which could be impractical. Here, we propose a solution operator learning method that requires only one PDE solution, i.e., one-shot learning, along with suitable initial and boundary conditions. Leveraging the locality of derivatives, we define a local solution operator in small local domains, train it using a neural network, and use it to predict solutions of new input functions via mesh-based fixed-point iteration or meshfree neural-network based approaches. We test our method on various PDEs, complex geometries, and a practical spatial infection spread application, demonstrating its effectiveness and generalization capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of DED and LPBF Fe-based Alloys Process Application Envelopes based on Performance, Process Economics, Supply Chain Risks, and Reactor-specific Targeted Components

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program aims to develop extreme-environment materials solutions for use in the deployment of advanced nuclear reactors and the sustainment of the current fleet. To achieve this objective, a combination of experiment, a computational tool, and machine learning (ML) for the design of materials is adopted for the maturation of materials for nuclear technology. Through advanced manufacturing techniques such as laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) and laser powder direct energy deposition (LP-DED), components with complex geometries can be fabricated with reduced time and effort. Such advanced manufacturing methods can also provide the opportunity to improve materials performance through optimized microstructures and mechanical properties. However, existing engineering alloys are not always well suited for fabrication with additive manufacturing (AM), as their compositions have been tuned to optimize fabrication via conventional methods. Thus, similar alloys with modified compositions that are better suited for AM can be studied for improved performance. Over the past three years, the AMMT teams from Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) studied various known Fe-based alloys by evaluating their initial printability using LPBF, and an AMMT-developed down-selection and decision matrix reduced the number of alloys to be studied from six to three in fiscal year (FY) 2024. Additionally, in FY 2024, for parallel evaluation, these three alloys were studied using LPDED. While LPBF is better for small- to medium-sized components with high detail and internal features, LP-DED combines a material feed system to place the powder onto the exact spot where the laser will melt the material. This AM method can be easily scaled to extremely large components and provides high build rate speeds compared to those of conventional LPBF systems. Additionally, DED is a better choice for complex geometries and compositional gradients.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unsupervised Learning for Improved Gamma-Ray Spectrometry in Pixelated Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) Detectors

Machine learning has been found to be ubiquitously useful across many industries, presenting an opportunity to improve radiation detection performance using data-driven algorithms. Improved detector resolution can aid in the detection, identification, and quantification of radionuclides. Here, in this work, a novel, data-driven, unsupervised learning approach is developed to improve detector spectral characteristics by learning, and subsequently rejecting, poorly performing regions of the pixelated detector. Feature engineering is used to fit individual characteristic photo peaks to a Doniach lineshape with a linear background model. Then, principal component analysis is used to learn a lower-dimension latent space representation of each photo peak where the pixels are clustered, and subsequently ranked, based on the cluster mean distance to an optimal point. Pixels within the worst cluster(s) are rejected to improve the full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) by 10% to 15% (relative to the bulk detector) at 50% net efficiency when applied to training data obtained from measurements of a 100 μCi 154 Eu source using a H3D M400i pixelated cadmium zinc telluride detector. These results compare well with, but do not outperform, a greedy algorithm that accumulates pixels in order of FWHM from lowest to highest used as a benchmark. In the future, this approach can be extended to include the detector energy and angular response. Finally, the model is applied to newly seen natural and enriched uranium spectra relevant for nuclear safeguards applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fragme∩t: An Open‐Source Framework for Multiscale Quantum Chemistry Based on Fragmentation

Fragment-based quantum chemistry offers a means to circumvent the nonlinear computational scaling of conventional electronic structure calculations, by partitioning a large calculation into smaller subsystems then considering the many-body interactions between them. Variants of this approach have been used to parameterize classical force fields and machine learning potentials, applications that benefit from interoperability between quantum chemistry codes. However, there is a dearth of software that provides interoperability yet is purpose-built to handle the combinatorial complexity of fragment-based calculations. To fill this void we introduce “Fragme∩t”, an open-source software application that provides a tool for community validation of fragment-based methods, a platform for developing new approximations, and a framework for analyzing many-body interactions. Fragme∩t includes algorithms for automatic fragment generation and structure modification, and for distance- and energy-based screening of the requisite subsystems. Checkpointing, database management, and parallelization are handled internally and results are archived in a portable database. Interfaces to various quantum chemistry engines are easy to write and exist already for Q-Chem, PySCF, xTB, Orca, CP2K, MRCC, Psi4, NWChem, GAMESS, and MOPAC. Applications reported here demonstrate parallel efficiencies around 96% on more than 1000 processors but also showcase that the code can handle large-scale protein fragmentation using only workstation hardware, all with a codebase that is designed to be usable by non-experts. Fragme∩t conforms to modern software engineering best practices and is built upon well established technologies including Python, SQLite, and Ray. The source code is available under the Apache 2.0 license.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving the fast-charging capability of NbWO-based Li-ion batteries

The discovery of Nb-W-O materials years ago marks the milestone of charging a lithium-ion battery in minutes. Nevertheless, for many applications, charging lithium-ion battery within one minute is urgently demanded, the bottleneck of which largely lies in the lack of fundamental understanding of Li + storage mechanisms in these materials. Herein, by visualizing Li + intercalated into representative Nb 16 W 5 O 55 , we find that the fast-charging nature of such material originates from an interesting rate-dependent lattice relaxation process associated with the Jahn-Teller effect. Furthermore, in situ electron microscopy further reveals a directional, [010]-preferred Li + transport mechanism in Nb 16 W 5 O 55 crystals being the “bottleneck” toward fast charging that deprives the entry of any desolvated Li + through the prevailing non-(010) surfaces. Hence, we propose a machine learning-assisted interface engineering strategy to swiftly collect desolvated Li + and relocate them to (010) surfaces for their fast intercalation. As a result, a capacity of ≈ 116 mAh g −1 (68.5% of the theoretical capacity) at 80 C (45 s) is achieved when coupled with a Li negative electrode.

batteries↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generalizing synthetic data-trained acoustic predictive models to real-world measurements

Acoustic Resonance Spectroscopy (ARS) is highly sensitive to structural properties such as material, geometry, and environmental conditions; as a consequence, it can noninvasively measure internal properties that are unobservable by most other methods. Because of its sensing capabilities and low implementation cost and complexity, ARS has potential as a paradigm shift in noninvasive sensing, characterization, and monitoring applications. However, extracting specific properties from ARS measurements, comprising the vibration spectrum of a test object, is challenging due to the sensitivity of the spectra to other structural changes not being measured, e.g. manufacturing tolerances, component coupling, environmental variation, etc. Neural Networks are promising tools for identifying trends in ARS measurements, but their training typically requires large datasets, which are often impractical to obtain for real-world systems. Synthetic data can be simulated efficiently, but discrepancies between synthetic and real-world data frequently lead to poor generalization when testing on the real-world data. We propose a novel ARS model training framework that enables networks trained exclusively on synthetic ARS data to generalize effectively to real-world measurements. Our approach leverages the Correlation Alignment (CORAL) technique to enforce the extraction of features common to both synthetic and real-world domains. As a case study, we demonstrate noninvasive ARS-based pressure measurements in sealed systems. Finite element method (FEM) simulations were used to generate synthetic training data across diverse vessel configurations and pressure conditions, and model performance was then tested on real-world measurements. We demonstrate that robust machine learning models for ARS can be developed without large real-world datasets, significantly broadening the applicability of ARS for noninvasive sensing. Moreover, the approach is extensible to other sensing modalities where synthetic data are abundant but real-world data are limited.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning‐Guided Discovery of High‐Entropy Perovskite Oxide Electrocatalysts via Oxygen Vacancy Engineering

Abstract High‐entropy perovskite oxides (HEPOs) have recently emerged as multifunctional catalysts. However, the HEPOs’ structural and compositional complexity hinders the easy and accurate extrapolation of activity indicators, which are essential for establishing structure‐property correlations. Here, OxiGraphX, is introduced as a novel graph neural network (GNN) model designed to capture the complex relationships among structure, composition, and atomic chemical environments for accurate prediction of oxygen vacancy formation energies (OVFEs) in HEPOs. By integrating machine learning (ML), density functional theory (DFT), and experimental validation, this work demonstrates an efficient framework for rapidly and accurately screening HEPO electrocatalysts for oxygen evolution reaction (OER). The OxiGraphX predicts OVFEs with a precision exceeding existing data, enabling the identification of compositions of higher oxygen vacancy content (OVC) and, thus, higher catalytic activity. Furthermore, the model explores latent spaces that translate effectively into experimental domains, bridging computational predictions with real‐world applications. This approach accelerates the discovery of high‐performance HEPO catalysts while providing deeper insights into their catalytic mechanisms.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

A tutorial review of machine learning-based model predictive control methods

Abstract This tutorial review provides a comprehensive overview of machine learning (ML)-based model predictive control (MPC) methods, covering both theoretical and practical aspects. It provides a theoretical analysis of closed-loop stability based on the generalization error of ML models and addresses practical challenges such as data scarcity, data quality, the curse of dimensionality, model uncertainty, computational efficiency, and safety from both modeling and control perspectives. The application of these methods is demonstrated using a nonlinear chemical process example, with open-source code available on GitHub. The paper concludes with a discussion on future research directions in ML-based MPC.

Wu, Zhe [Department of Chemical and Biomolecular E↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive analytics of selections of russet potatoes

We explore the application of machine learning algorithms specifically to enhance the selection process of Russet potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) clones in breeding trials by predicting their suitability for advancement. This study addresses the challenge of efficiently identifying high-yield, disease-resistant, and climate-resilient potato varieties that meet processing industry standards. Leveraging manually collected data from trials in the state of Oregon, we investigate the potential of a wide variety of state-of-the-art binary classification models. The dataset includes 1086 clones, with data on 38 attributes recorded for each clone, focusing on yield, size, appearance, and frying characteristics, with several control varieties planted consistently across four Oregon regions from 2013 to 2021. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dataset that includes preprocessing, feature engineering, and imputation to address missing values. We focus on several key metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for model evaluation. The top-performing models, namely a feedforward neural network classifier (Neural Net), a histogram-based gradient boosting classifier (HGBC), and a support vector machine classifier (SVM), demonstrate consistent and significant results. To further validate our findings, we conducted a simulation study using the aims, data-generating mechanisms, estimands, methods, and performance measures (ADEMP) framework, simulating different data-generating scenarios to assess model robustness and performance through true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative distributions, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and MCC. The simulation results highlight that non-linear models like SVM and HGBC consistently show higher AUC-ROC and MCC than logistic regression, thus outperforming the traditional linear model across various distributions, and emphasizing the importance of model selection and tuning in agricultural trials. Variable selection further enhances model performance and identifies influential features in predicting trial outcomes. The findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in streamlining the selection process for potato varieties, offering benefits such as increased efficiency, substantial cost savings, and judicious resource utilization. Our study contributes insights into precision agriculture and showcases the relevance of advanced technologies for informed decision-making in breeding programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗