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The availability of economically marginal land for energy crops is identified using the Cropland Data Layer and other soil, wind, climate data resources. All data are recognized on a 30m spatial resolution across the continental United States.
Miscanthus x giganteus, or Giant Miscanthus, is a tall, perennial grass originally from Asia. It is considered a sterile hybrid that has been bred to not produce viable seeds. Instead, rhizomes are planted to establish the crop. Here, the rhizome is an underground modified stem mass that puts out shoots and roots supporting new growth each year. This perennial crop takes two to three years to reach maturity, but established stands can reach upwards of 12 ft. tall with a very thick canopy (Pyter, 2007). Miscanthus has shown potential for high dry matter yields compared to other biomass crops, which could in turn lead to more efficient land use especially when applied to a bioenergy and bioproduct supply chain. In one study, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) yielded 10.3 Mg/ha of biomass on average, while miscanthus yielded 22.4 Mg/ha (Heaton et al., 2004). Additionally, miscanthus production has been associated with many environmental benefits, including benefits to water quality, nutrient load removal, soil stabilization, and soil health (Bhardwaj et al., 2011; Hussain et al., 2019). Many of the possible practical and environmental benefits that are associated with miscanthus production may be attractive to stakeholders who are interested in alternative land use options, particularly in areas considered to be marginal in productivity.
The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has been a major factor in land transitions out of intensive row-crop management on marginally productive lands in the central United States. While CRP can protect these more environmentally sensitive lands against erosion and potential nutrient loss, information on how CRP affects soil quality over time is limited. Using a chronosequence with 0–40 yr of CRP conversion history, we evaluated soil quality under different land use intensities (CRP, pasture, row crop) using the Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF). Effects of slope classes (higher [14–25%] and lower [2–14%]) and soil depth (0–120 cm) were also evaluated. Our results show that the soils were functioning at 84 and 78% of their theoretical capacity under CRP and row crop, respectively. Conversion to CRP enhanced overall soil quality by increasing soil biological, physical, and chemical attributes, but soil nutrient availability decreased due to the absence of fertilizer application. Increasing soil organic C (SOC) enhanced overall soil quality because of its impact on soil biological, physical, chemical, and nutrient conditions. Conversion to CRP will likely have greater benefits for more environmentally sensitive soils (i.e., higher slope) as demonstrated by structural equation modeling. Land use effects were also depth dependent, with more prominent effects within the 0-to-5-cm than the 5-to-15-cm depth increment. Overall, our methods focused on key soil quality indicators, confirmed ecological benefits of CRP conversion, and provided guidance for improved and simplified land management recommendations.
Abstract Growing lignocellulosic crops on marginal lands is a promising solution for sustainable biofuel production. We evaluated the productivity of bioenergy cropping systems (switchgrass [ Panicum virgatum L., var. Cave‐In‐Rock], miscanthus [ Miscanthus × giganteus , ‘Illinois clone’], hybrid poplar [ Populus nigra × P. maximowiczii A. Henry ‘NM6’], native grasses [five species], early successional vegetation, and restored prairie vs. historical vegetation [as reference control]) with and without nitrogen fertilization on low‐fertility former cropland at five sites in the Great Lakes Region, United States. We reported biomass yields for the first 7 years after establishment. Switchgrass was most consistently productive across all sites but miscanthus was more productive at three of the five sites. When averaged across sites, years, and nitrogen (N) treatments, biomass yields followed the order miscanthus > switchgrass > hybrid poplar ≈ native grasses > restored prairie > early successional vegetation ≈ historical vegetation, but varied substantially by crop and site, with a significant crop by site interaction. Yields of miscanthus and switchgrass peaked after four–five growing seasons and declined thereafter, while yields of both native grasses and restored prairie increased throughout 6 years with no sign of follow‐on decline, suggesting that polycultures may outperform monocultures over the long term. Yields of early successional vegetation—similar in composition to historical vegetation at each site—did not improve with time. Nitrogen fertilization increased the yields of all cropping systems at all sites. Our results demonstrate the viability of low‐productivity former cropland for long‐term bioenergy production and suggest there is no single crop best suited for all low fertility soils.
The production of dedicated energy crops for biofuel and co-products can help develop a sustainable and viable bioeconomy under a changing climate. The co-production of perennial bioenergy and commodity crops in an agricultural landscape has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and provide numerous ecosystem services. However, as production of advanced, higher-yielding cultivars occurs, their impact on water resources needs to be considered. Estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) of perennial grasses compared to commodity crops are not always consistent in the literature. In this study, ET was estimated using an energy-balance model with Landsat satellite imagery and ground-based weather data to compare the large-scale production of advanced switchgrass cultivars (‘Independence’, ‘Liberty’, and ‘Carthage’), predecessor cultivars (‘Shawnee’ and ‘Sunburst’), and other perennial grasses (big bluestem and a low-diversity mixture) to corn grown continuously on marginal soils in the U.S. Midwest. Results showed significant differences in ET between corn and perennial grass treatments at four of the five field sites. However, differences between crop treatments were not consistent across sites, nor were the differences between advanced and predecessor switchgrass varieties. Production year played a large role in daily and cumulative ET across all sites. Differences in crop biomass yield between establishment and post-establishment years may contribute to these interannual differences. Site and interannual variations in precipitation and temperature may also be major contributing factors. Overall, the results of this study indicate that differences in ET between perennial bioenergy grasses and corn are likely dependent upon location of production and weather conditions.
Brain metastases represent a major indication for stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS), but further study is needed regarding repeat SRS (SRS2) after local or marginal recurrence after prior SRS (SRS1). We report local tumor control (LC) after SRS2 and identify predictors of radiation necrosis (RN) and symptomatic RN (SRN).
Changes in temperature and sea level can cause dissociation of methane hydrates in shallow marine sediments, leading to seafloor destabilization. Along the U.S. Atlantic margin, there exists a well-documented history of slope failure and numerous recorded occurrences of gas seeps. Several studies have linked slope failure in the region to gas seepage and hydrate dissociation driven by glacial-interglacial transitions, but this linkage has not been quantitatively demonstrated. Along the shelf edge, in an area where shallow methane gas seeps have been identified, we modeled methane gas and hydrate formation using a one-dimensional fluid flow model. Methane gas formation was modeled over the last 120,000 years to simulate a glacial-interglacial cycle. Here, we ran this model at 16,044 individual locations in the region between 29° N – 45° N and 82° W – 66° W at a resolution of 1 x 1 arcminutes, focusing specifically on water depths between 200 and 1000 m that bracket the seafloor outcrop of the base of the hydrate stability zone. Using historic temperature and pressure records from the last 120,000 years, sediment properties in the area, and factor of safety calculations, we found that hydrate dissociation alone is unlikely to cause sediment failure in the region, implying that an additional driving force would be necessary for failure to occur.
Abstract Atmospheric forcing and interactions between the fire and atmosphere are primary drivers of wildland fire behavior. The atmosphere is known to be a chaotic system that, although deterministic, is very sensitive to small perturbations to initial conditions. We assume that as a result of the tight coupling between fire and atmosphere; wildland fire behavior, in turn, should also be sensitive to perturbations in atmospheric initial conditions. Observations suggest that low intensity prescribed fire, in particular, is susceptible to small perturbations in the wind field, which can significantly alter fire spread. Here, we employ a computational fluid dynamics model of coupled fire‐atmosphere interactions to answer the question: How sensitive is fire behavior to small variations in atmospheric turbulence? We perform ensemble simulations of fires in homogenous grass fuels. The only difference between ensemble members is the state of the turbulent atmosphere provided to the model throughout the simulation. The atmospheric state is a function of the initial conditions applied at the start of the simulation and boundary conditions applied throughout the simulation. We find a wide range of outcomes, with area burned ranging from 2,212 to 11,236 m 2 (>400% change), driven primarily by sensitivity to initial conditions, with nonnegligible contributions from boundary condition variability during the initial 30 s of simulation. Our results highlight the need for ensemble simulations, especially when considering fire behavior in marginal burning conditions.
We use earthquake-based adjoint tomography to invert for three-dimensional structure of the North Island, New Zealand, and the adjacent Hikurangi subduction zone. The study area, having a shallow depth to the plate interface below the North Island, offers a rare opportunity for imaging material properties at an active subduction zone using land-based measurements. Starting from an initial model derived using ray tomography, we perform iterative model updates using spectral element and adjoint simulations to fit waveforms with periods ranging from 4–30 s. We perform 28 model updates using an L-BFGS optimization algorithm, improving data fit and introducing P- and S-wave velocity changes of up to ±30%. Resolution analysis using point spread functions show that our measurements are most sensitive to heterogeneities in the upper 30 km. The most striking velocity changes coincide with areas related to the active Hikurangi subduction zone. Lateral velocity structures in the upper 5 km correlate well with New Zealand geology. Here, the inversion reveals increased along-strike heterogeneity on the margin. In Cook Strait we observe a low-velocity zone interpreted as deep sedimentary basins. In the central North Island, low-velocity anomalies are linked to surface geology, and we relate velocity structures at depth to crustal magmatic activity below the Taupō Volcanic Zone.
Sea ice modulates the energy exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean through its kinematics. Marginal ice zone (MIZ) dynamics are complex and are not well resolved in routine observations. Here, we investigate sea ice dynamics in the Greenland Sea MIZ using in situ and remote sensing Lagrangian drift datasets. These datasets provide a unique view into ice dynamics spanning spatial scales. We find evidence of tidal currents strongly affecting sub-daily ice motion. Velocity anomalies show abrupt transitions aligned with gradients in seafloor topography, indicating changes in ocean currents. Remote-sensed ice floe trajectories derived from moderate resolution satellite imagery provide a view of small-scale variability across the Greenland continental shelf. Ice floe trajectories reveal a west-east increasing velocity gradient imposed by the East Greenland Current, with maximum velocities aligned along the continental shelf edge. These results highlight the importance of small scale ocean variability for ice dynamics in the MIZ.
According to classic stomatal optimization theory, plant stomata are regulated to maximize carbon assimilation for a given water loss. A key component of stomatal optimization models is marginal water-use efficiency (mWUE), the ratio of the change of transpiration to the change in carbon assimilation. Although the mWUE is often assumed to be constant, variability of mWUE under changing hydrologic conditions has been reported. However, there has yet to be a consensus on the patterns of mWUE variabilities and their relations with atmospheric aridity. We investigate the dynamics of mWUE in response to vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and aridity index using carbon and water fluxes from 115 eddy covariance towers available from the global database FLUXNET. We demonstrate a non-linear mWUE-VPD relationship at a sub-daily scale in general; mWUE varies substantially at both low and high VPD levels. However, mWUE remains relatively constant within the mid-range of VPD. Despite the highly non-linear relationship between mWUE and VPD, the relationship can be informed by the strong linear relationship between ecosystem-level inherent water-use efficiency (IWUE) and mWUE using the slope, m *. We further identify site-specific m * and its variability with changing site-level aridity across six vegetation types. We suggest accurately representing the relationship between IWUE and VPD using Michaelis–Menten or quadratic functions to ensure precise estimation of mWUE variability for individual sites.
Recent expansion of croplands in the United States has caused widespread conversion of grasslands and other ecosystems with largely unknown consequences for agricultural production and the environment. Here we assess annual land use change 2008–16 and its impacts on crop yields and wildlife habitat. We find that croplands have expanded at a rate of over one million acres per year, and that 69.5% of new cropland areas produced yields below the national average, with a mean yield deficit of 6.5%. Observed conversion infringed upon high-quality habitat that, relative to unconverted land, had provided over three times higher milkweed stem densities in the Monarch butterfly Midwest summer breeding range and 37% more nesting opportunities per acre for waterfowl in the Prairie Pothole Region of the Northern Great Plains. Our findings demonstrate a pervasive pattern of encroachment into areas that are increasingly marginal for production, but highly significant for wildlife, and suggest that such tradeoffs may be further amplified by future cropland expansion.
Atmospheric gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) concentrations in the Arctic exhibit a clear summertime maximum, while the origin of this peak is still a matter of debate in the community. Based on summertime observations during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition and a modeling approach, we further investigate the sources of atmospheric Hg in the central Arctic. Simulations with a generalized additive model (GAM) show that long-range transport of anthropogenic and terrestrial Hg from lower latitudes is a minor contribution (~2%), and more than 50% of the explained GEM variability is caused by oceanic evasion. A potential source contribution function (PSCF) analysis further shows that oceanic evasion is not significant throughout the ice-covered central Arctic Ocean but mainly occurs in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) due to the specific environmental conditions in that region. Our results suggest that this regional process could be the leading contributor to the observed summertime GEM maximum. In the context of rapid Arctic warming and the observed increase in width of the MIZ, oceanic Hg evasion may become more significant and strengthen the role of the central Arctic Ocean as a summertime source of atmospheric Hg.
Abstract Tropical forests face increasing climate risk 1,2 , yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 ) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM 50 ) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk 3–5 , little is known about how these vary across Earth’s largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 and HSM 50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 and HSM 50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM 50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM 50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM 50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth–mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM 50 in the Amazon 6,7 , with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink.
The 1D bump-on-tail problem is studied in order to determine the influence of drag on quasi-steady solutions near marginal stability (1-γ d /γ L << 1) when effective collisions are much larger than the instability growth rate (ν>>γ). In this common tokamak regime, it is rigorously shown that the paradigmatic Berk–Breizman cubic equation for the nonlinear mode evolution reduces to a much simpler differential equation, dubbed the time-local cubic equation, which can be solved directly. It is found that in addition to increasing the saturation amplitude, drag introduces a shift in the apparent oscillation frequency by modulating the saturated wave envelope. Furthermore, excellent agreement is found between the analytic solution for the mode evolution and both the numerically integrated Berk–Breizman cubic equation and fully nonlinear 1D Vlasov simulations. Experimentally isolating the contribution of drag to the saturated mode amplitude for verification purposes is explored but complicated by the reality that the amount of drag cannot be varied independently of other key parameters in realistic scenarios. While the influence of drag is modest when the ratio of effective drag to effective scattering α/ν is very small, it can become substantial when α/ν ≳ 0.5, suggesting that drag should be accounted for in quantitative models of fast-ion-driven instabilities in fusion plasmas.
Abstract Early dark energy (EDE) is an extension to the ΛCDM model that includes an additional energy density contribution near recombination. The model was proposed to reduce the tension between the measurements of the Hubble constantH 0 from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and from the local cosmic distance ladder. Some analyses in the recent literature have shown intriguing hints for EDE. However, this model increases the tension in the derived clustering of galaxies (as measured by the so-calledS 8 parameter) between CMB and large scale structure (LSS) measurements. This new tension limits the contribution of EDE during recombination, and thus its effect on the Hubble tension. In this work, we investigate whether the inclusion of a general, smooth late-time dark energy modification can increase back the EDE contribution when LSS data is included in the analysis. In order to generalize the late expansion with respect to the ΛCDM model, we substitute the cosmological constant by a late dark energy fluid model with a piecewise constant equation of state w(z) in redshift bins. We show that, when analysing this generalized model with combinations of CMB, LSS and type Ia supernovae data from several experiments no significant changes onS 8 and EDE parameter constraints is found. The contribution to the EDE fraction constraint with late-time expansion marginalization isf EDE = 0.067 +0.019 -0.027 using 3 redshift bins, with similar results for 5 and 10 redshift bins. This work shows that in order to solve simultaneously the Hubble andS 8 tensions, one needs a mechanism for increasing the clustering of matter at late times different from a simple change in the background evolution of late dark energy.
The interaction of Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs) and energetic particles is one of many important factors determining the success of future tokamaks. In JET, eight in-vessel antennas were installed to actively probe stable AEs with frequencies ranging 25–250 kHz and toroidal mode numbers |n| < 20. During the 2019–2020 deuterium campaign, almost 7500 resonances and their frequencies f 0 , net damping rates γ < 0, and toroidal mode numbers were measured in almost 800 plasma discharges. From a statistical analysis of this database, continuum and radiative damping are inferred to increase with edge safety factor, edge magnetic shear, and when including non-ideal effects. Both stable AE observations and their associated damping rates are found to decrease with |n|. Active antenna excitation is also found to be ineffective in H-mode as opposed to L-mode; this is likely due to the increased edge density gradient’s effect on accessibility and ELM-related noise’s impact on mode identification. A novel measurement is reported of a marginally stable, edge-localized ellipticity-induced AE probed by the antennas during high-power auxiliary heating (ion cyclotron resonance heating and neutral beam injection) up to 25 MW. NOVA-K kinetic-MHD simulations show good agreement with experimental measurements of f 0 , γ, and n, indicating the dominance of continuum and electron Landau damping in this case. Similar experimental and computational studies are planned for the recent hydrogen and ongoing tritium campaigns, in preparation for the upcoming DT campaign.
The role of large-scale bars in the fuelling of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is still debated, even as evidence mounts that black hole growth in the absence of galaxy mergers cumulatively dominates and may substantially influence disc (i.e. merger-free) galaxy evolution. We investigate whether large-scale galactic bars are a good candidate for merger-free AGN fuelling. Specifically, we combine slit spectroscopy and Hubble Space Telescope imagery to characterize star formation rates (SFRs) and stellar masses of the unambiguously disc-dominated host galaxies of a sample of luminous, Type-1 AGN with 0.02 < z < 0.24. After carefully correcting for AGN signal, we find no clear difference in SFRs between AGN hosts and a stellar mass-matched sample of galaxies lacking an AGN (0.013 < z < 0.19), although this could be due to small sample size (nAGN = 34). We correct for SFR and stellar mass to minimize selection biases, and compare the bar fraction in the two samples. We find that AGNs are marginally (~1.7σ) more likely to host a bar than inactive galaxies, with AGN hosts having a bar fraction, $f_{\mathrm{bar}}=0.59^{+0.08}_{-0.09}$ and inactive galaxies having a bar fraction, $f_{\mathrm{bar}}=0.44^{+0.08}_{-0.09}$. However, we find no further differences between SFR- and mass-matched AGNs and inactive samples. While bars could potentially trigger AGN activity, they appear to have no further, unique effect on a galaxy’s stellar mass or SFR.