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At least 109 records · Page 6

Solving Stochastic Inverse Problems for Property–Structure Linkages Using Data-Consistent Inversion and Machine Learning

Determining process–structure–property linkages is one of the key objectives in material science, and uncertainty quantification plays a critical role in understanding both process–structure and structure–property linkages. In this work, we seek to learn a distribution of microstructure parameters that are consistent in the sense that the forward propagation of this distribution through a crystal plasticity finite element model matches a target distribution on materials properties. This stochastic inversion formulation infers a distribution of acceptable/consistent microstructures, as opposed to a deterministic solution, which expands the range of feasible designs in a probabilistic manner. Furthermore, to solve this stochastic inverse problem, we employ a recently developed uncertainty quantification framework based on push-forward probability measures, which combines techniques from measure theory and Bayes’ rule to define a unique and numerically stable solution. This approach requires making an initial prediction using an initial guess for the distribution on model inputs and solving a stochastic forward problem. To reduce the computational burden in solving both stochastic forward and stochastic inverse problems, we combine this approach with a machine learning Bayesian regression model based on Gaussian processes and demonstrate the proposed methodology on two representative case studies in structure–property linkages.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Finite elements for Matérn-type random fields: Uncertainty in computational mechanics and design optimization

This work highlights an approach for incorporating realistic uncertainties into scientific computing workflows based on finite elements, focusing on prevalent applications in computational mechanics and design optimization. We leverage Matérn-type Gaussian random fields (GRFs) generated using the SPDE method to model aleatoric uncertainties, including environmental influences, variating material properties, and geometric ambiguities. Our focus lies on delivering practical GRF realizations that accurately capture imperfections and variations and understanding how they impact the predictions of computational models as well as the shape and topology of optimized designs. Here we describe a numerical algorithm based on solving a generalized SPDE to sample GRFs on arbitrary meshed domains. The algorithm leverages established techniques and integrates seamlessly with the open-source finite element library MFEM and associated scientific computing workflows, like those found in industrial and national laboratory settings. Our solver scales efficiently for large-scale problems and supports various domain types, including surfaces and embedded manifolds. We showcase its versatility through biomechanics and topology optimization applications, emphasizing the potential to influence these domains. The flexibility and efficiency of SPDE-based GRF generation empowers us to run large-scale optimization problems on 2D and 3D domains, including finding optimized designs on embedded surfaces, and to generate design features and topologies beyond the reach of conventional techniques. Moreover, these capabilities allow us to model and quantify geometric uncertainties on reconstructed submanifolds, such as the interpolated surfaces of cerebral aneurysms provided by postprocessing CT scans. In addition to offering benefits in these specific domains, the proposed techniques transcend specific applications and generalize to arbitrary forward and backward problems in uncertainty quantification involving finite elements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

TRUST Sensors in Environments: Thermocouples (SE-TC), Release FY25

The Delivery Environments Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainty in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) project is a broad project intended to analyze simplified problems experimentally and with modeling and simulation. The purpose of analyzing these simplified problems is to extend solution methods to more complex problems, as well as understand deficiencies and gaps in knowledge of methods currently used in more complex analyses. The TRUST project encompasses several smaller testbeds intended to isolate individual phenomena. The testbed under consideration in this report is the Sensors in Environments: Thermocouples testbed. In previous years, the purpose of this testbed was to quantify uncertainty of thermocouple sensors. To accomplish this, an aluminum plate was placed in a thermal chamber and subject to various types of thermal loading. Thermocouples were placed in various locations on the aluminum plate in various configurations (e.g., embedded in the plate, placed under Kapton tape), and an effort was made to quantify uncertainty in these measurements. Finite element simulations were performed to investigate how sensitive these measurements were to parameters such as the boundary conditions on the plate and material properties. However, a fundamental source of uncertainty in this analysis was the convective heat transfer from the plate. Convective heat transfer is a complex physical phenomenon comprised of a number of interacting sub-processes and is difficult to predict accurately a priori. As such, the main purpose of this testbed in FY25 was to better understand, both experimentally and numerically, the convective heat transfer from the plate. This is a highly applicable problem to several more complex problems, as convective heat transfer occurs in nearly all problems where a body is moving through air. Numerically, this required a two-step approach. First, the air flow in the thermal chamber was in vestigated using computational fluid dynamics. The commercial solver Fluent was used to perform these simulations. From these simulations, a heat transfer coefficient over the surface of the plate was calculated. This heat transfer was then used as boundary conditions for finite element heat transfer simulations within the plate, which were performed using Abaqus. Significant effort was devoted to automating the handoff between these two solvers. Experimentally, previous thermocouple results in the plate were used to validate the time-dependent thermal profiles produced from Abaqus. Further experimental efforts were performed both to help validate the Fluent simulations and to inform its boundary conditions. For example, hot-wire anemometers were used to measure the velocity in the chamber, which would be particularly useful in understanding the chamber inlet velocity. Thermocouple measurements were also taken in the chamber, instead of only on the plate, to serve as validation evidence for the Fluent simulations. Numerical results showed that the Fluent to Abaqus workflow matched previous plate thermocouple measurements well. This type of handoff is useful for more complex experiments, or those that are not able to be examined in as great of detail as this testbed, as it was performed without any experimental input. Experimental results, however, were more mixed. The anemometers proved unreliable, with inconsistent measurements across all anemometers, even at locations that were nearly identical. On the other hand, the thermocouples provided a relatively rich view of the temperature field in the chamber.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Probabilistic structural mechanics research for parallel processing computers

Aerospace structures and spacecraft are a complex assemblage of structural components that are subjected to a variety of complex, cyclic, and transient loading conditions. Significant modeling uncertainties are present in these structures, in addition to the inherent randomness of material properties and loads. To properly account for these uncertainties in evaluating and assessing the reliability of these components and structures, probabilistic structural mechanics (PSM) procedures must be used. Much research has focused on basic theory development and the development of approximate analytic solution methods in random vibrations and structural reliability. Practical application of PSM methods was hampered by their computationally intense nature. Solution of PSM problems requires repeated analyses of structures that are often large, and exhibit nonlinear and/or dynamic response behavior. These methods are all inherently parallel and ideally suited to implementation on parallel processing computers. New hardware architectures and innovative control software and solution methodologies are needed to make solution of large scale PSM problems practical.

Sues, Robert H.↗

Parametric Study of the Vacuum Permeator for the Tritium Extraction eXperiment

Tritium breeding is a critical component of any self-sustaining future fusion reactor. The liquid metal eutectic, PbLi, is of particular interest as a tritium breeder material due to its favorable thermophysical and neutronic properties. One of the several remaining challenges facing PbLi breeder blankets is the need to design and validate a highly efficient tritium extraction system. The vacuum permeator is a promising extraction concept that utilizes tritium permeation through a highly permeable metal membrane. The Tritium Extraction eXperiment (TEX) is a forced-convection PbLi loop constructed to investigate tritium extraction from PbLi with vacuum permeators. Accurate thermal-hydraulic and tritium transport models are required to establish appropriate test matrices, predict experiment outcomes, and analyze data. However, the hydrogen transport properties of PbLi and permeator materials have large uncertainties. A database is collected, and a parametric analysis is conducted on the effect of hydrogen transport material properties: diffusivity of H in PbLi and permeator, solubility of H in PbLi and permeator, and permeator surface recombination constant on the expected tritium extraction efficiency for a vacuum permeator installed in TEX. As a result, we observe solubility of H in PbLi and the permeator and the recombination constant of the permeator have the largest effect on the extraction efficiency.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Development and Integration of a Stochastic Clad Damage Propagation Model into PRONGHORN-SC Subchannel Analysis Code

The failure of fuel pins in nuclear reactors is intrinsically stochastic. Typically, a combination of variation in manufacturing that affects the material characteristics and the fuel assembly dimensions, variation in operating conditions, such as local power, coolant flow rate, and irradiation induced changes in material properties lead to a large uncertainty in failure margin of the fuel pins. Failure, therefore, may occur in exceptional pins with adverse combinations of these variations. Upon a metal fuel pin (U-Pu-Zr/HT9) failure, depressurization of the fuel pin takes place by release of fission gas, liquid sodium bond, and potentially solid fuel particles or molten/eutectic fuel droplets through the hole in cladding. The effect of a fission gas jet on neighbor fuel pins and possible propagation of a clad damage during normal operation was studied experimentally in 1970s and it was found that the post-failure fission gas jet insulates the jet impingement area of the target fuel pin surface and could increase the target pin’s surface temperature by as much as 100 – 200 K during the failed pin depressurization. It was concluded that the effect should not lead to fuel pin failure propagation during normal operation. In accident scenarios of sodium and lead fast reactors such as Unprotected Loss-Of-Flow (ULOF) or Unprotected Transient Over Power (UTOP), the fuel pins can be subjected to higher clad temperatures and fuel pin pressures or fuel clad mechanical/chemical interaction where thermal creep margin becomes significantly lower compared to the normal operation conditions. Therefore, possible stochastic failure and the post-failure fission gas/fuel jet impingement could be critical in order to predict fuel pin failure propagation. Pin depressurization due to fission gas release may degrade the heat transfer by formation of a gas blanket on a neighboring pin surface, which is a local phenomenon, and by causing coolant flow deceleration and starvation, which could affect a surrounding region as well. Furthermore, the potential presence of solid fuel particles or molten fuel at the time of clad failure could boost post-failure jet induced degradation even further. The present study models the U-Pu-Zr/HT9 metal fuel pin failure and stochastic clad damage propagation by biased sampling based on a Cumulative Damage Fraction (CDF) type clad failure criterion and the normal distribution of fuel failure probability density as a function of logarithm of Cumulative Damage Fraction. In addition, the effect of post-failure fission gas jet on heat transfer degradation is modeled for the target pins. This model is called stochastic Clad Damage Propagation (CDAP). The CDAP model is now fully integrated into developmental version of PRONGHORN-SC subchannel analysis code, allowing for modeling local failures and its propagation potential. Section 2 describes the components of the CDAP models. Section 3 describes the model implementation to PRONGHORN-SC and input specifications. Section 4 describes the CDAP model validation coupled to PRONGHORN-SC.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Computational procedures for postbuckling of composite shells

A recently developed finite-element capability for general nonlinear shell analysis, featuring the use of three-dimensional constitutive equations within an efficient resultant-oriented framework, is employed to simulate the postbuckling response of an axially compressed composite cylindrical panel with a circular cutout. The problem is a generic example of modern composite aircraft components for which postbuckling strength (i.e., fail-safety) is desired in the presence of local discontinuities such as holes and cracked stiffeners. While the computational software does a reasonable job of predicting both the buckling load and the qualitative aspects of postbuckling (compared both with experiment and another code) there are some discrepancies due to: (1) uncertainties in the nominal layer material properties, (2) structural sensitivity to initial imperfections, and (3) the neglect of dynamic and local material delamination effects in the numerical model. Corresponding refinements are suggested for the realistic continuation of this type of analysis.

Stanley, G. M.↗

Conservative buffering of approximate nonlinear constraints

In engineering design practice behavior is usually predicted based on some known nominal design. However, when the design is fabricated it will differ from the nominal design because of manufacturing tolerances. In order to generate nominal designs that will still satisfy behavior constraints in the presence of manufacturing tolerances, engineers resort to the use of safety factors, over and above those introduced to account for other uncertainties (e.g., in load conditions, material properties, analysis modeling). The accurate selection of the values of these manufacturing tolerances safety factors is dependent on the capability of the engineer to determine the sensitivity of the critical constraints to changes in the design variables. This process usually leads to overly conservative designs. The task of choosing safety factors is much more difficult in structural synthesis because: (1) it is not known which constraints will be active at the final design, (2) as the design changes during the synthesis process the sensitivities of the constraints with respect to the design variables also change, and (3) the imposition of the safety factors themselves may change the set of critical constraints. These difficulties can be overcome with the approximation concepts approach to structural synthesis by buffering the approximate constraints with quantities that are related to the design variable tolerances and the accurate sensitivities of the constraints with respect to the design variable. Designs generated by this approach tend to be feasible but not overly conservative.

Thomas, H. L.↗

Design for cyclic loading endurance of composites

The present paper describes the application of the computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures) to air craft wing type structures. The code performs a complete probabilistic structural analysis for composites taking into account the uncertainties in geometry, boundary conditions, material properties, laminate lay-ups and loads. Results of the analysis are presented in terms of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) and probability density function (PDF) of life of a wing type composite structure under different hygrothermal environments subjected to random pressure. The sensitivity of fatigue life to a number of critical structural/material variables is also computed from the analysis.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

Design for cyclic loading endurance of composites

The application of the computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures) to aircraft wing type structures is described. The code performs a complete probabilistic analysis for composites taking into account the uncertainties in geometry, boundary conditions, material properties, laminate lay-ups, and loads. Results of the analysis are presented in terms of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) and probability density function (PDF) of the fatigue life of a wing type composite structure under different hygrothermal environments subjected to the random pressure. The sensitivity of the fatigue life to a number of critical structural/material variables is also computed from the analysis.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

Optimization of Adaptive Intraply Hybrid Fiber Composites with Reliability Considerations

The reliability with bounded distribution parameters (mean, standard deviation) was maximized and the reliability-based cost was minimized for adaptive intra-ply hybrid fiber composites by using a probabilistic method. The probabilistic method accounts for all naturally occurring uncertainties including those in constituent material properties, fabrication variables, structure geometry, and control-related parameters. Probabilistic sensitivity factors were computed and used in the optimization procedures. For actuated change in the angle of attack of an airfoil-like composite shell structure with an adaptive torque plate, the reliability was maximized to 0.9999 probability, with constraints on the mean and standard deviation of the actuation material volume ratio (percentage of actuation composite material in a ply) and the actuation strain coefficient. The reliability-based cost was minimized for an airfoil-like composite shell structure with an adaptive skin and a mean actuation material volume ratio as the design parameter. At a O.9-mean actuation material volume ratio, the minimum cost was obtained.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

Reliability, Risk and Cost Trade-Offs for Composite Designs

Risk and cost trade-offs have been simulated using a probabilistic method. The probabilistic method accounts for all naturally-occurring uncertainties including those in constituent material properties, fabrication variables, structure geometry and loading conditions. The probability density function of first buckling load for a set of uncertain variables is computed. The probabilistic sensitivity factors of uncertain variables to the first buckling load is calculated. The reliability-based cost for a composite fuselage panel is defined and minimized with respect to requisite design parameters. The optimization is achieved by solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations whose coefficients are functions of probabilistic sensitivity factors. With optimum design parameters such as the mean and coefficient of variation (representing range of scatter) of uncertain variables, the most efficient and economical manufacturing procedure can be selected. In this paper, optimum values of the requisite design parameters for a predetermined cost due to failure occurrence are computationally determined. The results for the fuselage panel analysis show that the higher the cost due to failure occurrence, the smaller the optimum coefficient of variation of fiber modulus (design parameter) in longitudinal direction.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

Towards a Probabilistic Criterion for Preliminary Shell Design

Thin-walled stiffened or unstiffened, metallic or composite shells are widely used structural elements in aeronautical and space applications. Buckling strength, which is a major concern in all these areas, is affected by the uncertainties in the definition of loads, material properties, geometric variables, engineering models and the accuracy of the analysis tools used in the design phase. The NASA design criteria monographs from the late sixties account for these design uncertainties by the use of a lump sum safety factor or the so-called "knockdown" factor gamma, which usually results in an overly conservative design. In the present paper a new, reliability based, probabilistic design procedure for buckling critical imperfect isotropic shells is proposed. It essentially consists of a stochastic approach based on a new, improved "knockdown" factor lambda(sub a) that is not as conservative as the traditional one. It is felt that by quantifying and understanding the "problem uncertainties" such as initial imperfections and their influence on the design variables, one can develop a better engineered, better designed and safer system.

Arbocz, Johann↗

Reliability-Based Design Optimization of a Composite Airframe Component

A stochastic design optimization methodology (SDO) has been developed to design components of an airframe structure that can be made of metallic and composite materials. The design is obtained as a function of the risk level, or reliability, p. The design method treats uncertainties in load, strength, and material properties as distribution functions, which are defined with mean values and standard deviations. A design constraint or a failure mode is specified as a function of reliability p. Solution to stochastic optimization yields the weight of a structure as a function of reliability p. Optimum weight versus reliability p traced out an inverted-S-shaped graph. The center of the inverted-S graph corresponded to 50 percent (p = 0.5) probability of success. A heavy design with weight approaching infinity could be produced for a near-zero rate of failure that corresponds to unity for reliability p (or p = 1). Weight can be reduced to a small value for the most failure-prone design with a reliability that approaches zero (p = 0). Reliability can be changed for different components of an airframe structure. For example, the landing gear can be designed for a very high reliability, whereas it can be reduced to a small extent for a raked wingtip. The SDO capability is obtained by combining three codes: (1) The MSC/Nastran code was the deterministic analysis tool, (2) The fast probabilistic integrator, or the FPI module of the NESSUS software, was the probabilistic calculator, and (3) NASA Glenn Research Center s optimization testbed CometBoards became the optimizer. The SDO capability requires a finite element structural model, a material model, a load model, and a design model. The stochastic optimization concept is illustrated considering an academic example and a real-life raked wingtip structure of the Boeing 767-400 extended range airliner made of metallic and composite materials.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗

Reliability-Based Design Optimization of a Composite Airframe Component

A stochastic optimization methodology (SDO) has been developed to design airframe structural components made of metallic and composite materials. The design method accommodates uncertainties in load, strength, and material properties that are defined by distribution functions with mean values and standard deviations. A response parameter, like a failure mode, has become a function of reliability. The primitive variables like thermomechanical loads, material properties, and failure theories, as well as variables like depth of beam or thickness of a membrane, are considered random parameters with specified distribution functions defined by mean values and standard deviations.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

Inverse Estimation of Mars 2020 Entry Aeroheating Environments Using MEDLI2 Flight Data

The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2 (MEDLI2) sensor suite collected heating and pressure data during entry into Mars' atmosphere of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover. MEDLI2 included thermocouples, heat flux sensors, and pressure transducers on both the heatshield and the backshell. This paper covers the inverse estimation of heatshield and backshell surface heating based on the MEDLI2 Instrumented Sensor Plugs (MISPs), a network of thermocouples embedded in thermal protection system plugs across the aeroshell. Monte Carlo analysis was conducted to assess the sensitivity of the surface heat rate and temperature to uncertainties in thermocouple depth and material properties such as density, specific heat capacity, and thermal conductivity. Data from each MISP was also used to estimate the local time of transition from laminar to turbulent flow at each plug location.

Hannah S Alpert↗

Quantification of uncertainties in composites

An integrated methodology is developed for computationally simulating the probabilistic composite material properties at all composite scales. The simulation requires minimum input consisting of the description of uncertainties at the lowest scale (fiber and matrix constituents) of the composite and in the fabrication process variables. The methodology allows the determination of the sensitivity of the composite material behavior to all the relevant primitive variables. This information is crucial for reducing the undesirable scatter in composite behavior at its macro scale by reducing the uncertainties in the most influential primitive variables at the micro scale. The methodology is computationally efficient. The computational time required by the methodology described herein is an order of magnitude less than that for Monte Carlo Simulation. The methodology has been implemented into the computer code PICAN (Probabilistic Integrated Composite ANalyzer). The accuracy and efficiency of the methodology/code are demonstrated by simulating the uncertainties in the heat-transfer, thermal, and mechanical properties of a typical laminate and comparing the results with the Monte Carlo simulation method and experimental data. The important observation is that the computational simulation for probabilistic composite mechanics has sufficient flexibility to capture the observed scatter in composite properties.

Liaw, D. G.↗

A probabilistic method for the buckling assessment of stiffened composite shells

A method is described to computationally simulate probabilistic buckling behavior of multilayered composite shells. The simulation accounts for all naturally-occurring uncertainties including those in constituent (fiber/matrix) material properties, fabrication variables, and structure geometry. The method is demonstrated for probabilistically assessing the buckling survivability of a specific case of a stiffened composite cylindrical shell with and without cutouts. The sensitivities of various uncertain variables on the buckling survivability are evaluated at specified reliability. The results show that the buckling survivability for a shell without cutouts depends primarily on shell skin related uncertainties. However, stringer related uncertainties become important for a shell with cutouts.

Shiao, Michael C.↗