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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Scaling Input Distributions for Probabilistic Models - 19472

It is important to address scaling issues when building models to support risk-based decisions for radioactive waste disposal sites. Currently, probabilistic risk assessment and probabilistic performance assessment models are run for multiple realizations where each realization uses one value from each input distribution over the entire modeled time. The input distributions represent the current state of knowledge in the mean of the input variable over the spatial region of interest and over the time period of the model run. This paper focuses on the time factor in input distribution scaling because it presents more serious conceptual and distributional challenges than the spatial factor. One of the challenges in temporal scaling is the effect of non-linearity on propagation of distribution uncertainty through to uncertainty in results. Radioactive waste disposal models tend to have both linear and non-linear components in their models. Dose assessment calculations are typically represented by linear models, while contaminant transport models have linear and non-linear components. In principle, temporal scaling of input parameter distributions for a linear model is straightforward, but scaling of input distributions for non-linear models is not. This paper uses examples to investigate the effects of input distribution temporal scaling on simple linear and non-linear models. Different scaling scenarios were investigated by comparing three analysis tools: analytical mathematical representations, statistical software programming, and GoldSim Monte Carlo simulation software. R statistical software is an open source statistical programming language often used for statistical analyses and graphical representation of data. GoldSim is a robust probabilistic dynamic modeling platform used in performance assessment modeling of radioactive waste sites. A simple linear model, a quadratic model and a multiplicative model were the cases explored for each of these tools. For the three analysis tools considered and with each of the scaling cases, 1,000 realizations were implemented from distributions of the random variables of interest. This is a sufficient number of realizations for simple models to capture the model space. An annual temporal resolution of a 100-year simulation period was chosen for all models and analysis tools. The effects of temporal scaling were demonstrated by investigating two different options for time scaling. Option 1 was set up so that the input distributions represented the expected value on an annual time scale, and a new value from that distribution was chosen every year (at every time step which equaled a year) for 100 years. In Option 2, the input distributions were scaled to represent the expected mean value of the input variable over the 100 years of simulation, and one value from that distribution was chosen for the entire elapsed time. Results show agreement across the three analysis tools. As expected, the linear models have identical results for the two different scaling Options, and the non-linear models diverge in the results for different time scale implementation. The implications of this work point to the need for careful consideration of input distribution temporal scaling. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Taming nuclear mass models with Gaussian processes

We propose a new set of nuclear mass predictions based on multiple theoretical mass models. By employing Gaussian process regression with the Matérn kernel, we achieved root-mean-square (rms) deviations below 100 keV for the training dataset. The best-performing mass models achieved rms deviations below 150 keV for the new precise mass data from AME2020, whereas the ensemble average showed robust performance across the nuclear chart. Our approach uniquely combines: (1) systematic refinement of eight mass models through their residuals, (2) physics-informed features, including magic numbers, nucleon parity numbers, neutron excess, and nuclear collectivity, and (3) theory-to-theory validation demonstrating robust extrapolation capability. We find that the Matérn kernel provides superior uncertainty quantification compared to the RBF kernel, with a length-scale analysis revealing enhanced inter-nuclei correlations. We provide complete mass predictions for all unknown nuclides in AME2020, offering valuable constraints for nuclear structure studies and astrophysical modeling when used with proper uncertainty propagation.

Gaussian processes↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncovering heterogeneous intercommunity disease transmission from neutral allele frequency time series

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need for accurate epidemic forecasting to predict pathogen spread, evolution, and evaluate intervention strategies. Forecast reliability hinges on detailed knowledge of disease transmission across population segments, which may be inferred from contact surveys or mobility data. However, these indirect approaches make it difficult to estimate rare transmissions between socially or geographically distant communities. We show that the steep ramp-up of genome sequencing surveillance during the pandemic can be leveraged to directly identify transmission patterns between geographically defined communities. Our approach uses a hidden Markov model to infer the fraction of infections a community imports from others based on how rapidly allele frequencies in the focal community converge to those in the donor communities. Applying this method to SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data from England and the United States, we uncover networks of intercommunity transmission that reflect geographical relationships while exposing significant long-range interactions. The scaling of importation rate with distance is consistent across both countries, yet weaker than expected based on mobility data, highlighting limitations of indirect inference. We show that transmission patterns can change between waves of variants of concern and analyze how the inferred heterogeneity in intercommunity transmission impacts evolutionary forecasts. While applied here to geographically defined communities, our approach could be applied to those defined by other traits (e.g., age, socioeconomic status), provided time-series data can be stratified accordingly. Overall, our study highlights population genomic time series data as a crucial record of epidemiological interactions, which can be deciphered using tree-free inference methods.

Okada, Takashi [Department of Physics; University ↗
DOE OSTI2020

SRNL Analysis of ICCWR LCM and WAMS data for Corrosion and Cracking (FY2020 Progress Report)

The development of algorithms for machine learning and data analysis for the 3013 Surveillance Program is a collaborative effort by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) and the University of South Carolina (USC). For corrosion detection, Laser Confocal Microscope (LCM) or Wide Area 3D Measurement System (WAMS) data is extracted from large binary files, with software written to convert the data to physical attributes (e.g. height, color and grayscale values; all as functions of a location in a plane projection). It is the objective of this project to produce a user-friendly interface that incorporated all operations needed to perform surface examination. For this reason, a Matlab-based Graphical User Interface (GUI) was created to integrate data input with software developed for processing and evaluation. In summary, the GUI permits selective downloading of binary data, interrogation of attributes, data labeling, flagging of significant features, execution of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, output of parameters for trained ML algorithms, reports of ML model accuracy with respect to labeled data, and generation of graphical representations of various analyses.

3013 corrosion↗
DOE OSTI2021

FY21 Progress Report: SRNL Analysis of ICCWR LCM and WAMS data for Corrosion and Cracking

The development of algorithms for machine learning and data analysis for the 3013 Surveillance Program is a collaborative effort by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) and the University of South Carolina (USC). For corrosion detection, Laser Confocal Microscope (LCM) or Wide Area 3D Measurement System (WAMS) data is extracted from large binary files, with software written to convert the data to physical attributes (e.g., height, color and grayscale values; all as functions of a location in a plane projection). A user-friendly Matlab Graphical User Interface (GUI) that reads data from either LCM or WAMS files was developed to integrate input data with software developed for processing and evaluation. The GUI can selectively download binary data, interrogate data attributes, label data, flag significant features, execute Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, output parameters for trained ML algorithms, report ML model accuracy with respect to labeled data, and generate graphical representations for various analyses. Features can be called out by user-specified thresholds, manual labeling or machine learning algorithms when they have been completed. The ability to rapidly label data is important because of the volume of data required for training machine learning algorithms. The GUI has the flexibility to allow addition of improved ML algorithms, methods for data visualization, and statistical computations. Statistical analyses via the GUI include areas of pits within a defined range of pit depths, correlations between Red-Green-Blue (RGB) or grayscale intensity and relative surface height, covariances between values associated with features, and feature histograms. The development of supervised machine learning algorithms, however, has been hindered by a lack of training data. The machine learning algorithms for crack identification are being refined but require improvements to the true positive rate for crack detection. This shortcoming is an artifact of the limited training data currently available, perhaps more so than the structure of the neural networks. At present, the best results are had from a consensus over an ensemble of randomly generated Deep Neural Network (DNN) or Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) algorithms. Although the consensus accuracy method has yielded optimum true positive and true negative rates in excess of 80%, additional validation testing is necessary. In addition to the suite of LCM data that was initially used, and which represents the majority of the work presented in this report, WAMS image data was also reviewed at a preliminary level. The review included a comparison between image resolution and dynamic range for each method. WAMS (ZON file) image data was found to have a pixel pitch of 3.69μm compared to 1 μm for the LCM (vk4 file) data, which implies a lower resolution for the WAMS images. Conversely, the ratio of dynamic range of the WAMS data to the LCM data was approximately 41:20 for height data, suggesting that information from WAMS should more accurately determine the depth of pits. At present, the significance of the greater dynamic range of the WAMS data relative to the LCM data has not yet been evaluated.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

Finding a maximal element of a non-negative convex set through its characteristic cone: an application to finding a strictly complementary solution

In order to express a polyhedron as the Minkowski sum of a polytope and a polyhedral cone, Motzkin (Beiträge zur Theorie der linearen Ungleichungen. Dissertation, University of Basel, 1936) devised a homogenization technique that translates the polyhedron to a polyhedral cone in one higher dimension. Refining his technique, we present a conical representation of a set in the Euclidean space. Then, we use this representation to reach four main results: First, we establish a convex programming based framework for determining a maximal element—an element with the maximum number of positive components—of a non-negative convex set—a convex set in the non-negative Euclidean orthant. Second, we develop a linear programming problem for finding a relative interior point of a polyhedron. Third, we propose two procedures for identifying a strictly complementary solution in linear programming. Finally, we generalize Motzkin’s (Beiträge zur Theorie der linearen Ungleichungen. Dissertation, University of Basel, 1936) representation theorem for a class of closed convex sets in the Euclidean space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

NREL Programs Channel Students Toward the Future Water Power Workforce

Water power is a flourishing segment of the renewable energy industry, and resilient, reliable technologies like marine energy and hydropower are poised to play a significant role in our energy demands in the years to come. Continuing this trajectory of growth, however, requires new talent and innovation. As part of the effort to thoughtfully attract the best and most qualified workers, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) and workforce development programs raised student awareness of and made connections to water power career opportunities throughout fiscal year 2021.

HYDRO ENERGY,TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exponential Decay in the Sensitivity Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamic Programming

In this report, we study the sensitivity of discrete-time dynamic programs with nonlinear dynamics and objective to perturbations in the initial conditions and reference parameters. Under uniform controllability and boundedness assumptions for the problem data, we prove that the directional derivative of the optimal state and control at time $k$, $x^*_k$, and $u^*_k$, with respect to the reference signal at time $i$, $d_i$, will have exponential decay in terms of $|k-i|$ with a decay rate $\rho$ independent of the temporal horizon length. The key technical step is to prove that a version of the convexification approach proposed by Verschueren et al. can be applied to the KKT conditions and results in a convex quadratic program with uniformly bounded data. In turn, Riccati techniques can be further employed to obtain the sensitivity result, borne from the observation that the directional derivatives are solutions of quadratic programs with structure similar to the KKT conditions themselves. We validate our findings with numerical experiments on a small nonlinear, nonconvex, dynamic program.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Computer simulation of nonstationary thermal fields in design and operation of northern oil and gas fields

A mathematical model, numerical algorithm and program code for simulation and long-term forecasting of changes in permafrost as a result of operation of a multiple well pad of northern oil and gas field are presented. In the model the most significant climatic and physical factors are taken into account such as solar radiation, determined by specific geographical location, heterogeneous structure of frozen soil, thermal stabilization of soil, possible insulation of the objects, seasonal fluctuations in air temperature, and freezing and thawing of the upper soil layer. Results of computing are presented.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Crosscut report: Exascale Requirements Reviews, March 9–10, 2017 – Tysons Corner, Virginia. An Office of Science review sponsored by: Advanced Scientific Computing Research, Basic Energy Sciences, Biological and Environmental Research, Fusion Energy Sciences, High Energy Physics, Nuclear Physics

The mission of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science (DOE SC) is the delivery of scientific discoveries and major scientific tools to transform our understanding of nature and to advance the energy, economic, and national security missions of the United States. To achieve these goals in today’s world requires investments in not only the traditional scientific endeavors of theory and experiment, but also in computational science and the facilities that support large-scale simulation and data analysis. The Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program addresses these challenges in the Office of Science. ASCR’s mission is to discover, develop, and deploy computational and networking capabilities to analyze, model, simulate, and predict complex phenomena important to DOE. ASCR supports research in computational science, three high-performance computing (HPC) facilities — the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and Leadership Computing Facilities at Argonne (ALCF) and Oak Ridge (OLCF) National Laboratories — and the Energy Sciences Network (ESnet) at Berkeley Lab. ASCR is guided by science needs as it develops research programs, computers, and networks at the leading edge of technologies. As we approach the era of exascale computing, technology changes are creating challenges for science programs in SC for those who need to use high performance computing and data systems effectively. Numerous significant modifications to today’s tools and techniques will be needed to realize the full potential of emerging computing systems and other novel computing architectures. To assess these needs and challenges, ASCR held a series of Exascale Requirements Reviews in 2015–2017, one with each of the six SC program offices,1 and a subsequent Crosscut Review that sought to integrate the findings from each. Participants at the reviews were drawn from the communities of leading domain scientists, experts in computer science and applied mathematics, ASCR facility staff, and DOE program managers in ASCR and the respective program offices. The purpose of these reviews was to identify mission-critical scientific problems within the DOE Office of Science (including experimental facilities) and determine the requirements for the exascale ecosystem that would be needed to address those challenges. The exascale ecosystem includes exascale computing systems, high-end data capabilities, efficient software at scale, libraries, tools, and other capabilities. This effort will contribute to the development of a strategic roadmap for ASCR compute and data facility investments and will help the ASCR Facility Division establish partnerships with Office of Science stakeholders. It will also inform the Office of Science research needs and agenda. The results of the six reviews have been published in reports available on the web at http://exascaleage.org/. This report presents a summary of the individual reports and of common and crosscutting findings, and it identifies opportunities for productive collaborations among the DOE SC program offices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Coherent states, quantum gravity, and the Born- Oppenheimer approximation. II. Compact Lie groups

In this article, the second of three, we discuss and develop the basis of a Weyl quantisation for compact Lie groups aiming at loop quantum gravity-type models. This Weyl quantisation may serve as the main mathematical tool to implement the program of space adiabatic perturbation theory in such models. As we already argued in our first article, space adiabatic perturbation theory offers an ideal framework to overcome the obstacles that hinder the direct implementation of the conventional Born-Oppenheimer approach in the canonical formulation of loop quantum gravity. Additionally, we conjecture the existence of a new form of the Segal-Bargmann-Hall “coherent state” transform for compact Lie groups G, which we prove for G = U(1){sup n} and support by numerical evidence for G = SU(2). The reason for conjoining this conjecture with the main topic of this article originates in the observation that the coherent state transform can be used as a basic building block of a coherent state quantisation (Berezin quantisation) for compact Lie groups G. But, as Weyl and Berezin quantisation for ℝ{sup 2d} are intimately related by heat kernel evolution, it is natural to ask whether a similar connection exists for compact Lie groups as well. Moreover, since the formulation of space adiabatic perturbation theory requires a (deformation) quantisation as minimal input, we analyse the question to what extent the coherent state quantisation, defined by the Segal-Bargmann-Hall transform, can serve as basis of the former.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Coherent states, quantum gravity, and the Born-Oppenheimer approximation. III.: Applications to loop quantum gravity

In this article, the third of three, we analyse how the Weyl quantisation for compact Lie groups presented in the second article of this series fits with the projective-phase space structure of loop quantum gravity-type models. Thus, the proposed Weyl quantisation may serve as the main mathematical tool to implement the program of space adiabatic perturbation theory in such models. As we already argued in our first article, space adiabatic perturbation theory offers an ideal framework to overcome the obstacles that hinder the direct implementation of the conventional Born-Oppenheimer approach in the canonical formulation of loop quantum gravity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling and Detection of Future Cyber-Enabled DSM Data Attacks

Demand-Side Management (DSM) is an essential tool to ensure power system reliability and stability. In future smart grids, certain portions of a customer’s load usage could be under the automatic control of a cyber-enabled DSM program, which selectively schedules loads as a function of electricity prices to improve power balance and grid stability. In this scenario, the security of DSM cyberinfrastructure will be critical as advanced metering infrastructure and communication systems are susceptible to cyber-attacks. Such attacks, in the form of false data injections, can manipulate customer load profiles and cause metering chaos and energy losses in the grid. The feedback mechanism between load management on the consumer side and dynamic price schemes employed by independent system operators can further exacerbate attacks. To study how this feedback mechanism may worsen attacks in future cyber-enabled DSM programs, we propose a novel mathematical framework for (i) modeling the nonlinear relationship between load management and real-time pricing, (ii) simulating residential load data and prices, (iii) creating cyber-attacks, and (iv) detecting said attacks. In this framework, we first develop time-series forecasts to model load demand and use them as inputs to an elasticity model for the price-demand relationship in the DSM loop. This work then investigates the behavior of such a feedback loop under intentional cyber-attacks. We simulate and examine load-price data under different DSM-participation levels with three types of random additive attacks: ramp, sudden, and point attacks. We conduct two investigations for the detection of DSM attacks. The first studies a supervised learning approach, with various classification models, and the second studies the performance of parametric and nonparametric change point detectors. Results conclude that higher amounts of DSM participation can exacerbate ramp and sudden attacks leading to better detection of such attacks, especially with supervised learning classifiers. We also find that nonparametric detection outperforms parametric for smaller user pools, and random point attacks are the hardest to detect with any method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Equilibrium Selection of Price-Maker Agents in Performance-Based Regulation Market

This paper analyzes the oligopolistic equilibrium of multiple price-maker agents in performance-based regulation (PBR) markets. In these markets, there are price-maker agents representing some frequency regulation (FR) providers and a number of independent price-taker FR providers. An equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC) model is employed in this paper to study the equilibria of a PBR market in the presence of price-maker agents and pricetaker FR providers. Due to the incorporation of the FR providers' dynamics, the proposed model is reformulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem over innovative mathematical techniques. An optimal equilibrium point is also selected for the market, where none of the agents is unique deviator and the dynamic performance of power system is improved simultaneously. The effectiveness of proposed optimal equilibrium point is evaluated in the numerical results section by comparing the outputs with conventional optimal dispatches of the FR providers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inspiring Tomorrow's Water Power Workforce to Lead the Clean Energy Revolution

Renewable water power, including hydropower and marine energy, will play a key role in building a reliable and flexible 100% clean energy future. That future needs a larger, modern workforce - one that's more diverse, equitable, and inclusive - to power and improve these technologies. And researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are committed to fostering tomorrow's water power workforce through science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and workforce development programs. Through events, online resources, and more, the lab aims to engage and inspire students to dive into careers in water power.

HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inspiring Tomorrow's Water Power Workforce to Lead the Clean Energy Revolution

Renewable water power, including hydropower and marine energy, will play a key role in building a reliable and flexible 100% clean energy future. That future needs a larger, modern workforce - one that's more diverse, equitable, and inclusive - to power and improve these technologies. And researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are committed to fostering tomorrow's water power workforce through science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and workforce development programs. Through events, online resources, and more, the lab aims to engage and inspire careers in water power.

app↗