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At least 109 records · Page 6

Continuum radiation from active galactic nuclei: A statistical study

The physics of the continuum spectrum of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) was examined using a large data set and rigorous statistical methods. A data base was constructed for 469 objects which include radio selected quasars, optically selected quasars, X-ray selected AGNs, BL Lac objects, and optically unidentified compact radio sources. Each object has measurements of its radio, optical, X-ray core continuum luminosity, though many of them are upper limits. Since many radio sources have extended components, the core component were carefully selected out from the total radio luminosity. With survival analysis statistical methods, which can treat upper limits correctly, these data can yield better statistical results than those previously obtained. A variety of statistical tests are performed, such as the comparison of the luminosity functions in different subsamples, and linear regressions of luminosities in different bands. Interpretation of the results leads to the following tentative conclusions: the main emission mechanism of optically selected quasars and X-ray selected AGNs is thermal, while that of BL Lac objects is synchrotron; radio selected quasars may have two different emission mechanisms in the X-ray band; BL Lac objects appear to be special cases of the radio selected quasars; some compact radio sources show the possibility of synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) in the optical band; and the spectral index between the optical and the X-ray bands depends on the optical luminosity.

Isobe, T.

Recent Development on O(+)-O Collision Frequency and Ionosphere-Middle Atmosphere Coupling

The collision frequency between an oxygen atom and its singly charged ion controls the transfer of energy between the solar radiation and the thermosphere. There were a long standing discrepancy, extending over a decade, between the theoretical and empirical determination of this frequency, and the empirical value of this frequency exceeded the theoretical value by a factor of 1.7. Recent improvements in theory were obtained by using accurate oxygen ion-oxygen atom potential energy curves, and partial wave quantum mechanical calculations. Similarly, recently three independent statistical methods were applied to the empirical determination of this frequency. These methods give results consistent with each other, and together with the recent theoretical improvements, bring the ratio close to unity, as it should be. It will be shown that the old statistical method for this determination contained accumulative errors, leading to a larger value for this ratio. The recent improvements lead to an average value of the empirical to the theoretical ratio equal to 0.98, with an uncertainty of +/- 8%, resolving the old discrepancy between theory and observations. The main source of uncertainties are errors in the profile of the oxygen atom density, which is of the order of 11 %. An alternative method to find the oxygen atom density is being suggested.

Omidvar, K.

On-Line Analysis of Physiologic and Neurobehavioral Variables During Long-Duration Space Missions

The goal of this project is to develop reliable statistical algorithms for on-line analysis of physiologic and neurobehavioral variables monitored during long-duration space missions. Maintenance of physiologic and neurobehavioral homeostasis during long-duration space missions is crucial for ensuring optimal crew performance. If countermeasures are not applied, alterations in homeostasis will occur in nearly all-physiologic systems. During such missions data from most of these systems will be either continually and/or continuously monitored. Therefore, if these data can be analyzed as they are acquired and the status of these systems can be continually assessed, then once alterations are detected, appropriate countermeasures can be applied to correct them. One of the most important physiologic systems in which to maintain homeostasis during long-duration missions is the circadian system. To detect and treat alterations in circadian physiology during long duration space missions requires development of: 1) a ground-based protocol to assess the status of the circadian system under the light-dark environment in which crews in space will typically work; and 2) appropriate statistical methods to make this assessment. The protocol in Project 1, Circadian Entrainment, Sleep-Wake Regulation and Neurobehavioral will study human volunteers under the simulated light-dark environment of long-duration space missions. Therefore, we propose to develop statistical models to characterize in near real time circadian and neurobehavioral physiology under these conditions. The specific aims of this project are to test the hypotheses that: 1) Dynamic statistical methods based on the Kronauer model of the human circadian system can be developed to estimate circadian phase, period, amplitude from core-temperature data collected under simulated light- dark conditions of long-duration space missions. 2) Analytic formulae and numerical algorithms can be developed to compute the error in the estimates of circadian phase, period and amplitude determined from the data in Specific Aim 1. 3) Statistical models can detect reliably in near real- time (daily) significant alternations in the circadian physiology of individual subjects by analyzing the circadian and neurobehavioral data collected in Project 1. 4) Criteria can be developed using the Kronauer model and the recently developed Jewett model of cognitive -performance and subjective alertness to define altered circadian and neurobehavioral physiology and to set conditions for immediate administration of countermeasures.

Brown, Emery N.

The statistical analysis of circadian phase and amplitude in constant-routine core-temperature data

Accurate estimation of the phases and amplitude of the endogenous circadian pacemaker from constant-routine core-temperature series is crucial for making inferences about the properties of the human biological clock from data collected under this protocol. This paper presents a set of statistical methods based on a harmonic-regression-plus-correlated-noise model for estimating the phases and the amplitude of the endogenous circadian pacemaker from constant-routine core-temperature data. The methods include a Bayesian Monte Carlo procedure for computing the uncertainty in these circadian functions. We illustrate the techniques with a detailed study of a single subject's core-temperature series and describe their relationship to other statistical methods for circadian data analysis. In our laboratory, these methods have been successfully used to analyze more than 300 constant routines and provide a highly reliable means of extracting phase and amplitude information from core-temperature data.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology

Using Machine Learning to Infer Material Properties of Debris Fragments from X-ray Images in the DebriSat Project

The DebriSat project is a collaboration effort with the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command Center, The Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida. To date, over 200,000 fragments from this ground-based, hypervelocity impact experiment have been collected, and processing is underway to determine their physical characteristics, such as material, shape, color, characteristic length, and average cross-sectional area. The x-ray process is primarily used to identify the location of the fragments and estimated size for extraction, so that these physical characteristics can be assessed. This paper proposes a machine learning-based approach to characterize materials from x-ray images of debris fragments embedded in soft-catch foam used in the DebriSat project. The novel methodology discussed in this paper will highlight the use of x-ray imagery data to characterize these fragments without extraction or a human-in-the-loop. Both supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques are utilized with this approach to infer the physical parameters of the fragments embedded in the soft-catch foam panels used in the impact experiment based on x-ray images of the foam panels. Additionally, 3D reconstructions of the extracted fragments are created with images taken from two different angles using the structure from motion (SfM) method. The characteristic lengths and shape from the 3D reconstruction, alongside the physical characteristics of the debris, are used in the inference of the material type. To develop and test the approach, a dataset of x-ray images of debris fragments of varying sizes and materials is collected. Supervised learning methods such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), support vector machines (SVM), decision trees, and random forest classifiers are used due to the high-dimensional feature spaces of the debris and nonlinear decision boundaries for material categorization. Given the limited pre-labeled data of embedded debris materials smaller than 10 mm, unsupervised machine learning techniques such as clustering algorithms and autoencoders are used, in addition to supervised learning methods. The clustering algorithms group similar fragments together based on their physical properties, and autoencoders reduce the dimensionality of the x ray images and extract relevant features. The performance of the proposed approach's is analyzed using a range of statistical methods, including confusion matrices, receiver operating characteristic curves, and precision-recall curves. The results are compared with those obtained using a baseline approach that relies on manual identification and classification of debris fragments. To evaluate the effectiveness of different machine learning methods, statistical tests such as t-tests, ANOVA, and cross-validation are performed, comparing the performance of CNNs, SVMs, clustering algorithms, and autoencoders. Additional analysis needs to be conducted to identify any sources of bias or variability that may affect the results, such as variations in imaging conditions or fragmentation patterns. Other topics explored are limitations, refinements, and the potential use of semi-supervised learning techniques, such as self-training to label unlabeled datasets and co-training using x-ray images taken from two different angles as two different models.

Saik Anam Siam

Using Machine Learning to Infer Material Properties of Debris Fragments from X-ray Images in the DebriSat Project

The DebriSat project is a collaboration effort with the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command Center, The Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida. To date, over 200,000 fragments from this ground-based, hypervelocity impact experiment have been collected, and processing is underway to determine their physical characteristics, such as material, shape, color, characteristic length, and average cross-sectional area. The x-ray process is primarily used to identify the location of the fragments and estimated size for extraction, so that these physical characteristics can be assessed. This paper proposes a machine learning-based approach to characterize materials from x-ray images of debris fragments embedded in soft-catch foam used in the DebriSat project. The novel methodology discussed in this paper will highlight the use of x-ray imagery data to characterize these fragments without extraction or a human-in-the-loop. Both supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques are utilized with this approach to infer the physical parameters of the fragments embedded in the soft-catch foam panels used in the impact experiment based on x-ray images of the foam panels. Additionally, 3D reconstructions of the extracted fragments are created with images taken from two different angles using the structure from motion (SfM) method. The characteristic lengths and shape from the 3D reconstruction, alongside the physical characteristics of the debris, are used in the inference of the material type. To develop and test the approach, a dataset of x-ray images of debris fragments of varying sizes and materials is collected. Supervised learning methods such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), support vector machines (SVM), decision trees, and random forest classifiers are used due to the high-dimensional feature spaces of the debris and nonlinear decision boundaries for material categorization. Given the limited pre-labeled data of embedded debris materials smaller than 10 mm, unsupervised machine learning techniques such as clustering algorithms and autoencoders are used, in addition to supervised learning methods. The clustering algorithms group similar fragments together based on their physical properties, and autoencoders reduce the dimensionality of the x ray images and extract relevant features. The performance of the proposed approach's is analyzed using a range of statistical methods, including confusion matrices, receiver operating characteristic curves, and precision-recall curves. The results are compared with those obtained using a baseline approach that relies on manual identification and classification of debris fragments. To evaluate the effectiveness of different machine learning methods, statistical tests such as t-tests, ANOVA, and cross-validation are performed, comparing the performance of CNNs, SVMs, clustering algorithms, and autoencoders. Additional analysis needs to be conducted to identify any sources of bias or variability that may affect the results, such as variations in imaging conditions or fragmentation patterns. Other topics explored are limitations, refinements, and the potential use of semi-supervised learning techniques, such as self-training to label unlabeled datasets and co-training using x-ray images taken from two different angles as two different models.

Saik Anam Siam

Improved Verification for Aerospace Systems

Aerospace systems are subject to many stringent performance requirements to be verified with low risk. This report investigates verification planning using conditional approaches vice the standard classical statistical methods, and usage of historical surrogate data for requirement validation and in verification planning. The example used in this report to illustrate the results of these investigations is a proposed mission assurance requirement with the concomitant maximum acceptable verification risk for the NASA Constellation Program Orion Launch Abort System (LAS). This report demonstrates the following improvements: 1) verification planning using conditional approaches vice classical statistical methods results in plans that are more achievable and feasible; 2) historical surrogate data can be used to bound validation of performance requirements; and, 3) incorporation of historical surrogate data in verification planning using conditional approaches produces even less costly and more reasonable verification plans. The procedures presented in this report may produce similar improvements and cost savings in verification for any stringent performance requirement for an aerospace system.

Powell, Mark A.

An analytic treatment of gravitational microlensing for sources of finite size at large optical depths

Statistical methods are developed for gravitational lensing in order to obtain analytic expressions for the average surface brightness that include the effects of microlensing by stellar (or other compact) masses within the lensing galaxy. The primary advance here is in utilizing a Markoff technique to obtain expressions that are valid for sources of finite size when the surface density of mass in the lensing galaxy is large. The finite size of the source is probably the key consideration for the occurrence of microlensing by individual stars. For the intensity from a particular location, the parameter which governs the importance of microlensing is determined. Statistical methods are also formulated to assess the time variation of the surface brightness due to the random motion of the masses that cause the microlensing.

Deguchi, Shuji

Tropical Tropospheric Ozone Trends (1990 to 2022): A Re-evaluation Based on SHADOZ and IAGOS Profiles and TOMS/OMI Columns

Changes in tropical tropospheric ozone (TTO) are of importance because this region spans roughly a third of the Earth and portions of it are experiencing variability in trends of ozone precursors (CO, NO x , CH 4 and nonmethane hydrocarbons) associated with economic growth and fires. In addition to ozone changes affecting radiative forcing, tropical ozone is an important source of the OH radical and thus, the oxidizing capacity of the planet (Thompson, 1992). Recent studies examining TTO trends satellite and in-situ observations over the past ~25 years include: Thompson et al., JGR, 2021; Gaudel et al., ACP, 2023; Stauffer et al., ACP, 2023. The results show considerable regional and seasonal variability in TTO trends and sensitivity to data selection, frequency, and statistical method used. The satellite data vary most widely in method, time period and reliability. Here we revisit trends for the 1990-2022 period with the best-characterized buv-based satellite products that span that period (derived from TOMS and OMI, Ziemke et al., 2019). The satellite-based trends are compared to trends based on in-situ data from the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network (1998-2022), measurements from selected pre-SHADOZ and IAGOS commercial aircraft data (Gaudel et al., 2023). Among sensitivities examined are the dependence of ozone trends on start and end years, impacts of ENSO events and the COVID-19 perturbation to emissions. Two statistical methods are used, quantile regression (QR) and multiple linear regression (MLR). Trends of total TTO, ozone segments in the boundary layer (to ~700 hPa), and free troposphere (700-300 hPa) are compared.

ozone, OMI, tropospheric ozone, SHADOZ

Finding the magnetopause location using soft X-ray observations and a statistical inverse method

Variability in the location and shape of the dayside magnetopause is attributed to magnetic reconnection, a fundamental process that enables the transfer of mass, energy, and momentum from the solar wind into the magnetosphere. The spatial and temporal properties of the magnetopause, under varying solar and magnetospheric conditions, remain largely unknown because empirical studies using in-situ observations are challenging to interpret. Global wide field-of-view (FOV) imaging is the only means to simultaneously observe the spatial distribution of the plasma properties over the vast dayside magnetospheric region and, subsequently, quantify the energy transport from the interplanetary medium into the terrestrial magnetosphere. Two upcoming missions, ESA/CAS SMILE and NASA’s LEXI will provide wide-field imagery of the dayside magnetosheath in soft X-rays, an emission generated by charge exchange interactions between high charge-state heavy ions of solar wind origin and exospheric neutral atoms. High-cadence two-dimensional observations of the magnetosheath will allow the estimation of dynamic properties of its inner boundary, the magnetopause, and enable studies of its response to changes in the solar wind dynamic pressure and interplanetary magnetic field orientation. This work introduces a statistically-based estimation approach based on inverse theory to estimate the spatial distribution of magnetosheath soft X-ray emissivities and, with this, identify the location of the magnetopause over the Sun−Earth line. To do so, we simulate the magnetosheath structure using the MHD-based OpenGGCM model and generate synthetic soft X-ray images using LEXI’s orbit and attitude information. Our results show that 3-D estimations using the described statistically-based technique are robust against Poisson-distributed shot noise inherent to soft X-ray images. Also, our proposed methodology shows that the accuracy of both three-dimensional (3-D) estimation and the magnetopause standoff distance calculation highly depends on the observational point.

Gonzalo Cucho-Padin

Method of statistical filtering

Minimal formula for bounding the cross correlation between a random forcing function and the state error when this correlation is unknown is used in optimal linear filter theory applications. Use of the bound results in overestimation of the estimation-error covariance.

Battin, R. H.

Lifetimes and Reliabilities of Bevel-Gear Drive Trains

Statistical methods used to predict system lifetimes from component lifetimes. Report shows how to use information to determine system life of drive train, using methods of probability and statistics. Presents life and reliability model for bevel-gear drive trains. Bevel-gear and support-bearing lives analyzed for each gear and bearing in drive train, with results statistically combined to produce system life for entire drive train. Numerical example included.

Lewicki, D.

Reliability Models and Attributable Risk

The intention of this report is to bring a developing and extremely useful statistical methodology to greater attention within the Safety, Reliability, and Quality Assurance Office of the NASA Johnson Space Center. The statistical methods in this exposition are found under the heading of attributable risk. Recently the Safety, Reliability, and Quality Assurance Office at the Johnson Space Center has supported efforts to introduce methods of medical research statistics dealing with the survivability of people to bear on the problems of aerospace that deal with the reliability of component hardware used in the NASA space program. This report, which describes several study designs for which attributable risk is used, is in concert with the latter goals. The report identifies areas of active research in attributable risk while briefly describing much of what has been developed in the theory of attributable risk. The report, which largely is a report on a report, attempts to recast the medical setting and language commonly found in descriptions of attributable risk into the setting and language of the space program and its component hardware.

Jarvinen, Richard D.

Systematic analysis of coding and noncoding DNA sequences using methods of statistical linguistics

We compare the statistical properties of coding and noncoding regions in eukaryotic and viral DNA sequences by adapting two tests developed for the analysis of natural languages and symbolic sequences. The data set comprises all 30 sequences of length above 50 000 base pairs in GenBank Release No. 81.0, as well as the recently published sequences of C. elegans chromosome III (2.2 Mbp) and yeast chromosome XI (661 Kbp). We find that for the three chromosomes we studied the statistical properties of noncoding regions appear to be closer to those observed in natural languages than those of coding regions. In particular, (i) a n-tuple Zipf analysis of noncoding regions reveals a regime close to power-law behavior while the coding regions show logarithmic behavior over a wide interval, while (ii) an n-gram entropy measurement shows that the noncoding regions have a lower n-gram entropy (and hence a larger "n-gram redundancy") than the coding regions. In contrast to the three chromosomes, we find that for vertebrates such as primates and rodents and for viral DNA, the difference between the statistical properties of coding and noncoding regions is not pronounced and therefore the results of the analyses of the investigated sequences are less conclusive. After noting the intrinsic limitations of the n-gram redundancy analysis, we also briefly discuss the failure of the zeroth- and first-order Markovian models or simple nucleotide repeats to account fully for these "linguistic" features of DNA. Finally, we emphasize that our results by no means prove the existence of a "language" in noncoding DNA.

NASA Discipline Number 14-10

Multi-Axis Accelerometer Calibration System

A low-cost, portable, and simplified system has been developed that is suitable for in-situ calibration and/or evaluation of multi-axis inertial measurement instruments. This system overcomes facility restrictions and maintains or improves the calibration quality for users of accelerometer-based instruments with applications in avionics, experimental wind tunnel research, and force balance calibration applications. The apparatus quickly and easily positions a multi-axis accelerometer system into a precisely known orientation suitable for in-situ quality checks and calibration. In addition, the system incorporates powerful and sophisticated statistical methods, known as response surface methodology and statistical quality control. These methods improve calibration quality, reduce calibration time, and allow for increased calibration frequency, which enables the monitoring of instrument stability over time.

Finley, Tom

Statistical Influence

Advancing the spread and practice of statistics enhances an organization’s ability to successfully achieve their mission. While there may be leadership mandates to employ statistical methods, often the spread of statistical concepts flourishes more effectively through the practice of statistical influence. At first glance, the term influence may seem to imply a passive and unenthusiastic posture toward promoting organizational change. However, a classical definition states that ,“In a general sense, influence denotes power whose operation is invisible and known only by its effects, or a power whose cause and operation are unseen.” This definition articulates the powerful and yet subtle aspects of influence that embodies the theme of this presentation. Stated plainly, powerful statistical concepts become more widely known and engrained primarily through demonstrated impact; a strategy known only by its effects. In this presentation, elements of statistical influence are exemplified through practice at NASA.

Peter A. Parker

The National Climate Data Base (NCDB): A Bias-Corrected High-Resolution Climate Dataset

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted in recent years to analyze and understand potential impacts of future change in renewable generation on the power sector. Solar energy is well-known as the most plentiful among various renewable resources and usually converted to electricity using photovoltaics (PV) technologies, and the global deployment of PV technology has increased rapidly in recent decades. In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for PV energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the proposed downscaling method and future extension of this research.

climate data

The National Climate Database (NCDB): An Unbiased 100-Year Dataset for PV Modeling

In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for photovoltaics (PV) energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the downscaling method, a summary of the 100-year dataset from 2001-2100, and future extension of this research.

bias correction