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At least 109 records · Page 6

A study of mesoscale surface heat and moisture budgets and their relationship to airmass cumulus clouds observed in LANDSAT imagery

The author has identified the following significant results. The three budget analyses show a weak correspondence between LANDSAT cloud patterns and elements of the energy and moisture budgets. It was found that a little more energy is contributed by the ground to heat the air in cloudy areas. Improvements are warranted in the budget models and data coverage necessary to describe the environment. These models can serve as a basis for more complex models of surface air heat and moisture exchanges which would utilize readily available meteorological data on a mesoscale.

Merritt, E. S.↗

Engineering and fabrication cost considerations for cryogenic wind tunnel models

Design and fabrication cost drivers for cryogenic transonic wind tunnel models are defined. The major cost factors for wind tunnel models are model complexity, tolerances, surface finishes, materials, material validation, and model inspection. The cryogenic temperatures require the use of materials with relatively high fracture toughness but at the same time high strength. Some of these materials are very difficult to machine, requiring extensive machine hours which can add significantly to the manufacturing costs. Some additional engineering costs are incurred to certify the materials through mechanical tests and nondestructive evaluation techniques, which are not normally required with conventional models. When instrumentation such as accelerometers and electronically scanned pressure modules is required, temperature control of these devices needs to be incorporated into the design, which requires added effort. Additional thermal analyses and subsystem tests may be necessary, which also adds to the design costs. The largest driver to the design costs is potentially the additional static and dynamic analyses required to insure structural integrity of the model and support system.

Boykin, R. M., Jr.↗

Functional models of power electronic components for system studies

A novel approach to model power electronic circuits has been developed to facilitate simulation studies of system-level issues. The underlying concept for this approach is to develop an equivalent circuit, the functional model, that performs the same functions as the actual circuit but whose operation can be simulated by using larger time step size and the reduction in model complexity, the computation time required by a functional model is significantly shorter than that required by alternative approaches. The authors present this novel modeling approach and discuss the functional models of two major power electronic components, the DC/DC converter unit and the load converter, that are being considered by NASA for use in the Space Station Freedom electric power system. The validity of these models is established by comparing the simulation results with available experimental data and other simulation results obtained by using a more established modeling approach. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated by incorporating these models into a power system model and simulating the system responses and interactions between components under various conditions.

Tam, Kwa-Sur↗

Modeling of Space Station power system components and their interactions

The authors demonstrate that the functional modeling approach is feasible in modeling large-scale spacecraft power systems such as the Space Station electric power system (EPS). The functional models for the solar array sequential shunt unit and the battery charging/discharging unit are presented. The functional modeling approach has also been applied to simulate other major EPS components. The usefulness of this approach in system-level studies has been demonstrated by incorporating these models into a power system model and simulating the system behavior under various conditions. The simulation results are consistent with those obtained experimentally. With larger time step size and reduced model complexity, the computation time required by the functional modeling approach is short. Functional models are effective in simulation studies of system-level issues, especially for large-scale power systems including many power electronic components.

Tam, Kwa-Sur↗

Reconfigurable Model Execution in the OpenMDAO Framework

NASA's OpenMDAO framework facilitates constructing complex models and computing their derivatives for multidisciplinary design optimization. Decomposing a model into components that follow a prescribed interface enables OpenMDAO to assemble multidisciplinary derivatives from the component derivatives using what amounts to the adjoint method, direct method, chain rule, global sensitivity equations, or any combination thereof, using the MAUD architecture. OpenMDAO also handles the distribution of processors among the disciplines by hierarchically grouping the components, and it automates the data transfer between components that are on different processors. These features have made OpenMDAO useful for applications in aircraft design, satellite design, wind turbine design, and aircraft engine design, among others. This paper presents new algorithms for OpenMDAO that enable reconfigurable model execution. This concept refers to dynamically changing, during execution, one or more of: the variable sizes, solution algorithm, parallel load balancing, or set of variables-i.e., adding and removing components, perhaps to switch to a higher-fidelity sub-model. Any component can reconfigure at any point, even when running in parallel with other components, and the reconfiguration algorithm presented here performs the synchronized updates to all other components that are affected. A reconfigurable software framework for multidisciplinary design optimization enables new adaptive solvers, adaptive parallelization, and new applications such as gradient-based optimization with overset flow solvers and adaptive mesh refinement. Benchmarking results demonstrate the time savings for reconfiguration compared to setting up the model again from scratch, which can be significant in large-scale problems. Additionally, the new reconfigurability feature is applied to a mission profile optimization problem for commercial aircraft where both the parametrization of the mission profile and the time discretization are adaptively refined, resulting in computational savings of roughly 10% and the elimination of oscillations in the optimized altitude profile.

Hwang, John T.↗

Efficient and Accurate Terrain Integration & Application to Modeling and Simulation of Planetary Landing Systems

As planetary spacecraft landing system complexity increases, pre-flight performance assessments include correspondingly more detailed and complex models that represent the various environmental elements and vehicle subsystems. Specifically, the relevance and criticality of planetary terrain modeling in the context of precision landing and hazard avoidance (PL&HA) has become evident as both commercial and national agencies return to the Lunar surface and beyond.

Terrain↗

Comparison Analysis Between Nevada and TSS Using a Jet Engine Exhaust Nozzle Test Rig

Thermal analysis in both simple and complex models can require calculating the propagation of radiant energy to and from multiple surfaces. This can be accomplished through simple estimation techniques or complex computationally intense computer modeling simulations. Currently there are a variety of computer analysis techniques used to simulate the propagation of radiant energy, each having advantages and disadvantages. The major objective of this effort was to compare two ray tracing radiation propagation analysis programs (NEVADA and TSS) Net Energy Verification and Determination Analyzer and Thermal Synthesizer System with experimental data. Results from a non-flowing, electrically heated test rig was used to verify the calculated radiant energy propagation from a nozzle geometry that represents an aircraft propulsion nozzle system. In general the programs produced comparable overall results, and results slightly higher then the experimental data. Upon inspection of individual radiation interchange factors, differences were evident and would have been magnified if a more radical model temperature profile was analyzed. Bidirectional reflectivity data (BRDF) was not used do to modeling limitations in TSS. For code comparison purposes, this nozzle geometry represents only one case for one set of analysis conditions. Since each computer code has advantages and disadvantages bases on scope, requirements, and desired accuracy, the usefulness of this single case study may be limiting.

Baumeister, Joseph F.↗

ENSAERO - A multidisciplinary program for fluid/structural interaction studies of aerospace vehicles

A computational procedure is developed that uses a moving zonal grid concept to model complex flexible aerospace vehicles. The Euler/Navier-Stokes equations are used to model the flow, and computations are made using efficient methods based on both central and upwind schemes. The structure is represented by a finite element method which can model general aerospace vehicles. Provisions are made to accommodate other disciplines such as controls and thermal loads. The code is capable of computing unsteady flows on flexible wings with vortical flows. Adaptation of this procedure for parallel processing and validation for complete aerospace configurations is in progress.

Guruswamy, G. P.↗

Distributed state-space generation of discrete-state stochastic models

High-level formalisms such as stochastic Petri nets can be used to model complex systems. Analysis of logical and numerical properties of these models of ten requires the generation and storage of the entire underlying state space. This imposes practical limitations on the types of systems which can be modeled. Because of the vast amount of memory consumed, we investigate distributed algorithms for the generation of state space graphs. The distributed construction allows us to take advantage of the combined memory readily available on a network of workstations. The key technical problem is to find effective methods for on-the-fly partitioning, so that the state space is evenly distributed among processors. In this paper we report on the implementation of a distributed state-space generator that may be linked to a number of existing system modeling tools. We discuss partitioning strategies in the context of Petri net models, and report on performance observed on a network of workstations, as well as on a distributed memory multi-computer.

Ciardo, Gianfranco↗

Active Learning for Directed Exploration of Complex Systems

Physics-based simulation codes are widely used in science and engineering to model complex systems that would be infeasible to study otherwise. Such codes provide the highest-fidelity representation of system behavior, but are often so slow to run that insight into the system is limited. For example, conducting an exhaustive sweep over a d-dimensional input parameter space with k-steps along each dimension requires k(sup d) simulation trials (translating into k(sup d) CPU-days for one of our current simulations). An alternative is directed exploration in which the next simulation trials are cleverly chosen at each step. Given the results of previous trials, supervised learning techniques (SVM, KDE, GP) are applied to build up simplified predictive models of system behavior. These models are then used within an active learning framework to identify the most valuable trials to run next. Several active learning strategies are examined including a recently-proposed information-theoretic approach. Performance is evaluated on a set of thirteen synthetic oracles, which serve as surrogates for the more expensive simulations and enable the experiments to be replicated by other researchers.

oracles↗

SIM_EXPLORE: Software for Directed Exploration of Complex Systems

Physics-based numerical simulation codes are widely used in science and engineering to model complex systems that would be infeasible to study otherwise. While such codes may provide the highest- fidelity representation of system behavior, they are often so slow to run that insight into the system is limited. Trying to understand the effects of inputs on outputs by conducting an exhaustive grid-based sweep over the input parameter space is simply too time-consuming. An alternative approach called "directed exploration" has been developed to harvest information from numerical simulators more efficiently. The basic idea is to employ active learning and supervised machine learning to choose cleverly at each step which simulation trials to run next based on the results of previous trials. SIM_EXPLORE is a new computer program that uses directed exploration to explore efficiently complex systems represented by numerical simulations. The software sequentially identifies and runs simulation trials that it believes will be most informative given the results of previous trials. The results of new trials are incorporated into the software's model of the system behavior. The updated model is then used to pick the next round of new trials. This process, implemented as a closed-loop system wrapped around existing simulation code, provides a means to improve the speed and efficiency with which a set of simulations can yield scientifically useful results. The software focuses on the case in which the feedback from the simulation trials is binary-valued, i.e., the learner is only informed of the success or failure of the simulation trial to produce a desired output. The software offers a number of choices for the supervised learning algorithm (the method used to model the system behavior given the results so far) and a number of choices for the active learning strategy (the method used to choose which new simulation trials to run given the current behavior model). The software also makes use of the LEGION distributed computing framework to leverage the power of a set of compute nodes. The approach has been demonstrated on a planetary science application in which numerical simulations are used to study the formation of asteroid families.

Burl, Michael↗

Application of Interface Technology in Nonlinear Analysis of a Stitched/RFI Composite Wing Stub Box

A recently developed interface technology was successfully employed in the geometrically nonlinear analysis of a full-scale stitched/RFI composite wing box loaded in bending. The technology allows mismatched finite element models to be joined in a variationally consistent manner and reduces the modeling complexity by eliminating transition meshing. In the analysis, local finite element models of nonlinearly deformed wide bays of the wing box are refined without the need for transition meshing to the surrounding coarse mesh. The COMET-AR finite element code, which has the interface technology capability, was used to perform the analyses. The COMET-AR analysis is compared to both a NASTRAN analysis and to experimental data. The interface technology solution is shown to be in good agreement with both. The viability of interface technology for coupled global/local analysis of large scale aircraft structures is demonstrated.

Wang, John T.↗

A Method for Calculating the Probability of Successfully Completing a Rocket Propulsion Ground Test

Propulsion ground test facilities face the daily challenges of scheduling multiple customers into limited facility space and successfully completing their propulsion test projects. Due to budgetary and schedule constraints, NASA and industry customers are pushing to test more components, for less money, in a shorter period of time. As these new rocket engine component test programs are undertaken, the lack of technology maturity in the test articles, combined with pushing the test facilities capabilities to their limits, tends to lead to an increase in facility breakdowns and unsuccessful tests. Over the last five years Stennis Space Center's propulsion test facilities have performed hundreds of tests, collected thousands of seconds of test data, and broken numerous test facility and test article parts. While various initiatives have been implemented to provide better propulsion test techniques and improve the quality, reliability, and maintainability of goods and parts used in the propulsion test facilities, unexpected failures during testing still occur quite regularly due to the harsh environment in which the propulsion test facilities operate. Previous attempts at modeling the lifecycle of a propulsion component test project have met with little success. Each of the attempts suffered form incomplete or inconsistent data on which to base the models. By focusing on the actual test phase of the tests project rather than the formulation, design or construction phases of the test project, the quality and quantity of available data increases dramatically. A logistic regression model has been developed form the data collected over the last five years, allowing the probability of successfully completing a rocket propulsion component test to be calculated. A logistic regression model is a mathematical modeling approach that can be used to describe the relationship of several independent predictor variables X(sub 1), X(sub 2),..,X(sub k) to a binary or dichotomous dependent variable Y, where Y can only be one of two possible outcomes, in this case Success or Failure. Logistic regression has primarily been used in the fields of epidemiology and biomedical research, but lends itself to many other applications. As indicated the use of logistic regression is not new, however, modeling propulsion ground test facilities using logistic regression is both a new and unique application of the statistical technique. Results from the models provide project managers with insight and confidence into the affectivity of rocket engine component ground test projects. The initial success in modeling rocket propulsion ground test projects clears the way for more complex models to be developed in this area.

Messer, Bradley P.↗

Exploring the Relationship Between Temperature Forecast Errors and Earth System Variables

Accurate subseasonal weather forecasts, from two weeks up to a season, can help reduce costs and impacts related to weather and corresponding extremes. The quality of weather forecasts has improved considerably in recent decades as models represent more details of physical processes, and they benefit from assimilating comprehensive Earth observation data as well as increasing computing power. However, with ever–growing model complexity, it becomes increasingly difficult to pinpoint weaknesses in the forecast models’ process representations which is key to improving forecast accuracy. In this study, we use a comprehensive set of observation–based ecological, hydrological and meteorological variables to study their potential for explaining temperature forecast errors at the weekly time scale. For this purpose, we compute Spearman correlations between each considered variable and the forecast error obtained from the ECMWF subseasonal–to–seasonal (S2S) reforecasts at lead times of 1–6 weeks. This is done across the globe for the time period 2001–2017. The results show that temperature forecast errors globally are most strongly related with climate–related variables such as surface solar radiation and precipitation, which highlights the model’s difficulties in accurately capturing the evolution of the climate–related variables during the forecasting period. At the same time, we find particular regions in which other variables are more strongly related to forecast errors. For instance, in central Europe, eastern North America and southeastern Asia, vegetation greenness and soil moisture are relevant, while in western South America and central North America, circulation–related variables such as surface pressure relate more strongly with forecast errors. Overall, the identified relationships between forecast errors and independent Earth observations reveal promising variables on which future forecasting system development could focus by specifically considering related process representations and data assimilation.

Temperature↗

Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following the process described in Refs. 5 through 7, in terms of percentage coverage or confidence level is notionally sound compared to characterizing in terms of probabilities because the probability of the forecast being correct can only be determined using actual observations. References 5 through 7 only use the forecast data and not the observations. The method for computing the probability of detection, false alarm ratio and several forecast quality metrics (Skill Scores) using both the forecast and observation data are given in Ref. 2. This paper extends the statistical verification method in Ref. 2 to determine co-occurrence probabilities. The method consists of computing the probability that a severe weather cell (grid location) is detected in the observation data in the neighborhood of the severe weather cell in the forecast data. Probabilities of occurrence at the grid location and in its neighborhood with higher severity, and with lower severity in the observation data compared to that in the forecast data are examined. The method proposed in Refs. 5 through 7 is used for computing the probability that a certain number of cells in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in the forecast data are seen as severe weather cells in the observation data. Finally, the probability of existence of gaps in the observation data in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in forecast data is computed. Gaps are defined as openings between severe weather cells through which an aircraft can safely fly to its intended destination. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II summarizes the statistical verification method described in Ref. 2. The extension of this method for computing the co-occurrence probabilities in discussed in Section HI. Numerical examples using NCWF forecast data and NCWD observation data are presented in Section III to elucidate the characteristics of the co-occurrence probabilities. This section also discusses the procedure for computing throbabilities that the severity of convection in the observation data will be higher or lower in the neighborhood of grid locations compared to that indicated at the grid locations in the forecast data. The probability of coverage of neighborhood grid cells is also described via examples in this section. Section IV discusses the gap detection algorithm and presents a numerical example to illustrate the method. The locations of the detected gaps in the observation data are used along with the locations of convective weather cells in the forecast data to determine the probability of existence of gaps in the neighborhood of these cells. Finally, the paper is concluded in Section V.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

A NASTRAN Model of a Large Flexible Swing-Wing Bomber. Volume 1: NASTRAN Model Plane

A review was conducted of B-1 aircraft no. 2 (A/C-2) internal loads models to determine the minimum model complexity necessary to fulfill all of the airloads research study objectives. Typical model sizings were tabulated at selected vehicle locations, and scale layouts were prepared of the NASTRAN structural analysis model.

Mock, W. D.↗

NASA's New Approach for Evaluating Risk Reduction Due to Space Shuttle Upgrades

As part of NASA's intensive effort to incorporate quantitative risk assessment (QRA) tools in the Agency's decision-making process concerning Space Shuttle risk, NASA has developed a powerful risk assessment tool called the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS). The QRAS is a tool designed to estimate Space Shuttle risk and evaluate Space Shuttle upgrades. This paper presents an overview of the QRAS with focus on its application for evaluating the risk reduction due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. The application includes a case study from the Space Shuttle main engine (SSME). The QRAS overview section of the paper includes the QRAS development process, the technical approach to model development, the QRA quantification methods and techniques, and observations concerning the complex modeling involved in QRAS. The application section of the paper describes a practical case study using QRAS models for evaluating critical Space Shuttle Program upgrades, specifically a proposed SSME nozzle upgrade. This paper presents the method for evaluating the proposed upgrade by comparing the current nozzle (old design with well-established probabilistic models) to the channel wall nozzle (new design at the preliminary design level).

Safie, Fayssal M.↗

Measurement of the primary cosmic electron spectrum from 10 to about 250-GeV

The intensity and energy spectrum of primary cosmic electrons from 10 to approximately 250 GeV was studied using balloon-borne detectors. Both of the detectors were large area ionization calorimeters with frequent sampling of showering particles and were capable of energy resolution of approximately 7%. A time-of-flight system and detectors to sample the lateral properties of showers were used to examine and improve background rejection. The results of the balloon flights from Alamogordo, N.M. in 1970 and Cape Girardeau, Missouri in 1972 indicated that the primary cosmic ray electron differential energy spectrum exhibits no change of slope in the energy range measured and is well represented by a power law. These results indicate that the cosmic electron spectrum is steeper than the cosmic ray proton spectrum. It is shown that these data are consistent with the leakage lifetime model for the propagation of cosmic electrons in the Galaxy, although other more complex models cannot be excluded on the basis of these data.

Silverberg, R. F.↗