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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
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NASA NTRS1984

Reliability and maintainability assessment factors for reliable fault-tolerant systems

A long term goal of the NASA Langley Research Center is the development of a reliability assessment methodology of sufficient power to enable the credible comparison of the stochastic attributes of one ultrareliable system design against others. This methodology, developed over a 10 year period, is a combined analytic and simulative technique. An analytic component is the Computer Aided Reliability Estimation capability, third generation, or simply CARE III. A simulative component is the Gate Logic Software Simulator capability, or GLOSS. The numerous factors that potentially have a degrading effect on system reliability and the ways in which these factors that are peculiar to highly reliable fault tolerant systems are accounted for in credible reliability assessments. Also presented are the modeling difficulties that result from their inclusion and the ways in which CARE III and GLOSS mitigate the intractability of the heretofore unworkable mathematics.

Bavuso, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The application of emulation techniques in the analysis of highly reliable, guidance and control computer systems

Emulation techniques can be a solution to a difficulty that arises in the analysis of the reliability of guidance and control computer systems for future commercial aircraft. Described here is the difficulty, the lack of credibility of reliability estimates obtained by analytical modeling techniques. The difficulty is an unavoidable consequence of the following: (1) a reliability requirement so demanding as to make system evaluation by use testing infeasible; (2) a complex system design technique, fault tolerance; (3) system reliability dominated by errors due to flaws in the system definition; and (4) elaborate analytical modeling techniques whose precision outputs are quite sensitive to errors of approximation in their input data. Use of emulation techniques for pseudo-testing systems to evaluate bounds on the parameter values needed for the analytical techniques is then discussed. Finally several examples of the application of emulation techniques are described.

Migneault, Gerard E.↗
NASA NTRS1988

X-band noise temperature near the Sun at a 34-meter high efficiency antenna

The X-band system noise temperature near the Sun was measured at the DSS 15, a 34 meter high efficiency (HEF) antenna, in November 1987. Data was taken at angles off the center of the Sun from 0 to 4 degrees. At angles greater than 0.5 degree, the measured results agree with Voyager tracking data taken at solar conjunction in late December 1987. Within the solar disk, at angles lower than 0.27 degree, the temperature measured was lower than the prediction of a model by 30 percent, after adjusting for known receiver nonlinearities. The discrepancy in this extreme case is probably caused by unknown nonlinearities in the receiver, uncertainties in the model, or both. The measurement is nevertheless credible for practically all Sun-Earth-probe angles of interest to deep space missions.

Rebold, T. A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Challenges of Credible Thermal Protection System Reliability Quantification

The paper discusses several of the challenges associated with developing a credible reliability estimate for a human-rated crew capsule thermal protection system. The process of developing such a credible estimate is subject to the quantification, modeling and propagation of numerous uncertainties within a probabilistic analysis. The development of specific investment recommendations, to improve the reliability prediction, among various potential testing and programmatic options is then accomplished through Bayesian analysis.

Green, Lawrence L.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Understanding Air Transportation Market Dynamics Using a Search Algorithm for Calibrating Travel Demand and Price

This paper presents a search algorithm based framework to calibrate origin-destination (O-D) market specific airline ticket demands and prices for the Air Transportation System (ATS). This framework is used for calibrating an agent based model of the air ticket buy-sell process - Airline Evolutionary Simulation (Airline EVOS) -that has fidelity of detail that accounts for airline and consumer behaviors and the interdependencies they share between themselves and the NAS. More specificially, this algorithm simultaneous calibrates demand and airfares for each O-D market, to within specified threshold of a pre-specified target value. The proposed algorithm is illustrated with market data targets provided by the Transportation System Analysis Model (TSAM) and Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B). Although we specify these models and datasources for this calibration exercise, the methods described in this paper are applicable to calibrating any low-level model of the ATS to some other demand forecast model-based data. We argue that using a calibration algorithm such as the one we present here to synchronize ATS models with specialized forecast demand models, is a powerful tool for establishing credible baseline conditions in experiments analyzing the effects of proposed policy changes to the ATS.

Kumar, Vivek↗
NASA NTRS2015

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation: Chapter - 5

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work plan, and has been the subject of ongoing work by AgMIP since its creation.

agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED): Documentation of Versions 2.1, 2.2 and 2.4: Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation - Volume 38

Biomass burning is an important source of particulates and trace gases and a major element of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Well constrained emissions from vegetation fires are needed to model direct and indirect effects of biomass burning aerosols, to model homogeneous and heterogeneous chemistry in the atmosphere, and to perform credible Earth system analysis, and climate and air pollution studies. To improve the performance of NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) in the areas of atmospheric constituent modeling with a focus on biomass burning we developed the Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED). The QFED emissions are based on the fire radiative power (top-down) approach and draw on the cloud correction method developed in the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS). Location and fire radiative power of fires are obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Level 2 fire products (MOD14 and MYD14) and the MODIS Geolocation products (MOD03 and MYD03). QFED strengths are high spatial and temporal resolutions and near-real time availability. Daily mean emissions are available at 0.3125 times 0.25 degrees and in recent versions also at 0.1 times 0.1 degrees. QFED provides emissions of black carbon, organic carbon, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, PM2.5, ammonia, nitrogen oxides, methyl ethyl ketone, propylene, ethane, propane, n- and i-butane, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, acetone and methane. Two QFED product systems are maintained by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO): one that produces near real-time daily emissions used operationally in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System, and one that produces an extended historical dataset with daily emissions from March 2000 to the present. The historical dataset also provides monthly mean and monthly climatological emissions.

Koster, Randal D.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Conceptual Design Methods and the Application of a Tradespace Modeling Tool for Deep Space Missions

Concept studies for deep space missions are typically time-consuming and costly, given the variety of missions and uniqueness of each design. Yet, in an increasingly cost-constrained environment, it is critical to identify the most scientifically valuable and cost-effective designs early in the design process. Modeling is an integral part in helping to identify the most desirable design option. While some spacecraft design models currently exist for Earth-orbiting spacecraft, there has been less success with deep space missions. Instead, these missions require a modified design and modeling approach to enable the same construction of a comprehensive, yet credible, mission tradespace. This paper presents an approach for efficiently constructing such a mission tradespace. In addition to a proposed design and modeling approach, three case study missions are presented including a solar orbiter, a Europa orbiter, and a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) sample return mission.

space vehicles↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Applying NASA-STD-7009 Standard for Models and Simulations to Surrogate and Other Statistical Models

NASA-STD-7009A, Standard for Models and Simulations, contains a worthy and insightfully-crafted credibility assessment. That set of metrics is intended to accumulate and communicate information that can be critical for users and their customers in evaluating findings due to a model or simulation. Was the model designed for the present use? Is it validated in the domain it’s being applied to? And so on. The standard was originally focused on physics-based models, but it can be applied more generally. It can – and should – be applied to high-impact statistical models, including surrogate models based on larger models and sims and regression models based directly on data. A key issue with many of such models is their relative simplicity compared to most M&S despite their use in high-risk engineering decisions. This report will make a case for using this Standard for a wider class of models, and how it might actually add value in excess of its cost for not only stakeholders, but modelers themselves. A rough example showing compliance for a statistical model is included.

K L Johnson↗
NASA NTRS2014

Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of SST gradients, associated PBL baroclinicity enabled by turbulent mixing, the ensuing PBL moisture convergence, and how changes in these processes relate to convective precipitation bias growth over this short period.

Cohen, Charlie↗
NASA NTRS1995

Calculations of Diffuser Flows with an Anisotropic K-Epsilon Model

A newly developed anisotropic K-epsilon model is applied to calculate three axisymmetric diffuser flows with or without separation. The new model uses a quadratic stress-strain relation and satisfies the realizability conditions, i.e., it ensures both the positivity of the turbulent normal stresses and the Schwarz' inequality between any fluctuating velocities. Calculations are carried out with a finite-element method. A second-order accurate, bounded convection scheme and sufficiently fine grids are used to ensure numerical credibility of the solutions. The standard K-epsilon model is also used in order to highlight the performance of the new model. Comparison with the experimental data shows that the anisotropic K-epsilon model performs consistently better than does the standard K-epsilon model in all of the three test cases.

Zhu, J.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Evaluation Applied to Reliability Analysis of Reconfigurable, Highly Reliable, Fault-Tolerant, Computing Systems for Avionics

Emulation techniques are proposed as a solution to a difficulty arising in the analysis of the reliability of highly reliable computer systems for future commercial aircraft. The difficulty, viz., the lack of credible precision in reliability estimates obtained by analytical modeling techniques are established. The difficulty is shown to be an unavoidable consequence of: (1) a high reliability requirement so demanding as to make system evaluation by use testing infeasible, (2) a complex system design technique, fault tolerance, (3) system reliability dominated by errors due to flaws in the system definition, and (4) elaborate analytical modeling techniques whose precision outputs are quite sensitive to errors of approximation in their input data. The technique of emulation is described, indicating how its input is a simple description of the logical structure of a system and its output is the consequent behavior. The use of emulation techniques is discussed for pseudo-testing systems to evaluate bounds on the parameter values needed for the analytical techniques.

Migneault, G. E.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Emulation applied to reliability analysis of reconfigurable, highly reliable, fault-tolerant computing systems

Emulation techniques applied to the analysis of the reliability of highly reliable computer systems for future commercial aircraft are described. The lack of credible precision in reliability estimates obtained by analytical modeling techniques is first established. The difficulty is shown to be an unavoidable consequence of: (1) a high reliability requirement so demanding as to make system evaluation by use testing infeasible; (2) a complex system design technique, fault tolerance; (3) system reliability dominated by errors due to flaws in the system definition; and (4) elaborate analytical modeling techniques whose precision outputs are quite sensitive to errors of approximation in their input data. Next, the technique of emulation is described, indicating how its input is a simple description of the logical structure of a system and its output is the consequent behavior. Use of emulation techniques is discussed for pseudo-testing systems to evaluate bounds on the parameter values needed for the analytical techniques. Finally an illustrative example is presented to demonstrate from actual use the promise of the proposed application of emulation.

Migneault, G. E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Knowledge representation to support reasoning based on multiple models

Model Based Reasoning is a powerful tool used to design and analyze systems, which are often composed of numerous interactive, interrelated subsystems. Models of the subsystems are written independently and may be used together while they are still under development. Thus the models are not static. They evolve as information becomes obsolete, as improved artifact descriptions are developed, and as system capabilities change. Researchers are using three methods to support knowledge/data base growth, to track the model evolution, and to handle knowledge from diverse domains. First, the representation methodology is based on having pools, or types, of knowledge from which each model is constructed. In addition information is explicit. This includes the interactions between components, the description of the artifact structure, and the constraints and limitations of the models. The third principle we have followed is the separation of the data and knowledge from the inferencing and equation solving mechanisms. This methodology is used in two distinct knowledge-based systems: one for the design of space systems and another for the synthesis of VLSI circuits. It has facilitated the growth and evolution of our models, made accountability of results explicit, and provided credibility for the user community. These capabilities have been implemented and are being used in actual design projects.

Gillam, April↗
NASA NTRS2014

Antarctic Analog for Dilational Bands on Europa

Europa's surface shows signs of extension, which is revealed as lithospheric dilation expressed along ridges, dilational bands and ridged bands. Ridges, the most common tectonic feature on Europa, comprise a central crack flanked by two raised banks a few hundred meters high on each side. Together these three classes may represent a continuum of formation. In Tufts' Dilational Model ridge formation is dominated by daily tidal cycling of a crack, which can be superimposed with regional secular dilation. The two sources of dilation can combine to form the various band morphologies observed. New GPS data along a rift on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica is a suitable Earth analog to test the framework of Tufts' Dilational Model. As predicted by Tufts' Dilational Model, tensile failures in the Ross Ice Shelf exhibit secular dilation, upon which a tidal signal can be seen. From this analog we conclude that Tufts' Dilational Model for Europan ridges and bands may be credible and that the secular dilation is most likely from a regional source and not tidally driven.

Tectonics↗
NASA NTRS2025

Assessment of Model Outcomes Between the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT)

The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is a computational model that provides human health and medical risk predictions for crewed spaceflight missions. MEDPRAT utilizes discrete event modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation to predict critical mission outcomes (total medical events, crew health index, quality time lost, loss of crew life, removal to definitive care), condition occurrences, and resource consumption. Input parameters for MEDPRAT include crew attributes (e.g., sex), types of mission activities (e.g., whether and where crew members perform an extravehicular activity (EVA)), available resources, treatment information, and probability distributions for medical conditions. As an evolution of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), MEDPRAT provides enhanced capabilities and higher fidelity, and incorporates more appropriate assumptions for long-duration spaceflight. IMM is the currently accepted standard for quantifying spaceflight mission medical risk in NASA operations that uses a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach. MEDPRAT builds on the same logical foundation as IMM but implements the model architecture through highly optimized Monte Carlo sampling methods. An analysis is performed comparing the outputs from IMM with those from MEDPRAT V1.0 and V2.0 for the same reference missions in order to quantify similarities and differences in the model outcomes. The juxtaposition between IMM and MEDPRAT V1.0 and 2.0 shown in this report demonstrates that these two models generate very similar results; where differences in outcomes are shown, these are in accordance with the underlying assumptions and differences in the model architectures. This validation effort further establishes the credibility and reliability of the MEDPRAT software.

Matthew T Prelich↗
NASA NTRS2012

NASA Integrated Model Centric Architecture (NIMA) Model Use and Re-Use

This whitepaper accepts the goals, needs and objectives of NASA's Integrated Model-centric Architecture (NIMA); adds experience and expertise from the Constellation program as well as NASA's architecture development efforts; and provides suggested concepts, practices and norms that nurture and enable model use and re-use across programs, projects and other complex endeavors. Key components include the ability to effectively move relevant information through a large community, process patterns that support model reuse and the identification of the necessary meta-information (ex. history, credibility, and provenance) to safely use and re-use that information. In order to successfully Use and Re-Use Models and Simulations we must define and meet key organizational and structural needs: 1. We must understand and acknowledge all the roles and players involved from the initial need identification through to the final product, as well as how they change across the lifecycle. 2. We must create the necessary structural elements to store and share NIMA-enabled information throughout the Program or Project lifecycle. 3. We must create the necessary organizational processes to stand up and execute a NIMA-enabled Program or Project throughout its lifecycle. NASA must meet all three of these needs to successfully use and re-use models. The ability to Reuse Models a key component of NIMA and the capabilities inherent in NIMA are key to accomplishing NASA's space exploration goals. 11

Conroy, Mike↗
NASA NTRS2009

Analysis of Compression Pad Cavities for the Orion Heatshield

Current results of a program for analysis of the compression pad cavities on the Orion heatshield are reviewed. The program was supported by experimental tests, engineering modeling, and applied computations with an emphasis on the latter presented in this paper. The computational tools and approach are described along with calculated results for wind tunnel and flight conditions. Correlations of the computed results are shown which can produce a credible prediction of heating augmentation due to cavity disturbances. The models developed for use in preliminary design of the Orion heatshield are presented.

Thompson, Richard A.↗