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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Determining the jet transport coefficient $\hat{q}$ from inclusive hadron suppression measurements using Bayesian parameter estimation

We report a new determination of $\hat{q}$, the jet transport coefficient of the quark-gluon plasma. We use the JETSCAPE framework, which incorporates a novel multistage theoretical approach to in-medium jet evolution and Bayesian inference for parameter extraction. The calculations, based on the Matter and Lbt jet quenching models, are compared to experimental measurements of inclusive hadron suppression in Au + Au collisions at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and Pb + Pb collisions at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The correlation of experimental systematic uncertainties is accounted for in the parameter extraction. The functional dependence of $\hat{q}$ on jet energy or virtuality and medium temperature is based on a perturbative picture of in-medium scattering, with components reflecting the different regimes of applicability of Matter and Lbt. In the multistage approach, the switch between Matter and Lbt is governed by a virtuality scale Q 0 . Comparison of the posterior model predictions to the RHIC and LHC hadron suppression data shows reasonable agreement, with moderate tension in limited regions of phase space. The distribution of $\hat{q}/T^3$ extracted from the posterior distributions exhibits weak dependence on jet momentum and medium temperature T, with 90% credible region (CR) depending on the specific choice of model configuration. The choice of Matter + Lbt, with switching at virtuality Q 0 , has 90% CR of $2<\hat{q}/T^3<4$ for p T jet > 40 GeV=c. The value of Q 0 , determined here for the first time, is in the range 2.0-2.7 GeV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Frequentist cosmological constraints from full-shape clustering measurements in DESI DR1

We present a frequentist analysis of clustering measurements from Data Release 1 of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) using the standard profile likelihood method. While Bayesian inferences for effective field theory models of galaxy clustering can be highly sensitive to prior choices for extended cosmological models, frequentist inferences are not susceptible to such effects. We compare frequentist and Bayesian constraints for the parameter set {σ 8 , H 0 , Ω m , w 0 , w a } using the full-shape power spectrum multipoles, post-reconstruction baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements, and external datasets from the CMB and type Ia supernovae measurements. The frequentist confidence intervals are significantly shifted relative to the Bayesian credible intervals for the w 0 w a CDM model, unless supernovae data are included. When DESI full-shape and BAO data are fit jointly, we obtain the following 1σ frequentist confidence intervals for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM): σ 8 = 0.863 +0.048 -0.040 , H 0 = 68.96 +0.81 -0.80 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.3034 ± 0.0110 (σ 8 = 0.782 +0.060 -0.036 , H 0 = 63.7 +4.2 -2.0 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.378 +0.024 -0.047 , w 0 = -0.16 +0.10 -0.50 , w a = -3.0 +1.7 ), corresponding to 0.8σ, 0.3σ, 0.7σ (2.1σ, 4.1σ, 6.5σ, 6.3σ, 6.6σ) shifts between the maximum likelihood estimate and the Bayesian posterior mean for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM) respectively.

Bayesian reasoning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive Capability Maturity Model Demonstration for Cylindrical Cavity Coupling Using Gemma in the Next Generation Workflow

The predictive capability maturity model (PCMM) uses the expert elicitation process to generate credibility evidence for a particular analysis. To ensure Gemma has the capability to efficiently produce this credibility evidence, next generation workflows (NGW) are created for the solution verification, calibration/validation, and input uncertainty quantification portions of the PCMM assessment. These workflows are then used on the Higgins cylinder problem, which is representative of applications involving external-to-internal electromagnetic field coupling through a slot. The uncertainties calculated using these workflows are then used to calculate the validation comparison error and the validation uncertainty for the model following the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) verification and validation (V&V) 20 standard. These workflows will enable analysts to iterate each element of PCMM more efficiently than if completed without using a NGW workflow. An example of this iterative process is shown in Section 7.2.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating an Earth system model from a water manager perspective

Abstract. The large spatial scale of global Earth system models (ESMs) is often cited as an obstacle to using the output by water resource managers in localized decisions. Recent advances in computing have improved the fidelity of hydrological responses in ESMs through increased connectivity between model components. However, the models are seldom evaluated for their ability to reproduce metrics that are important for and resonate with practitioners or that allow practitioners to situate higher-resolution model outputs within a cascade of uncertainty stemming from different models and scenarios. We draw on the combined experience of the author team and water manager workshop participants to identify salient water management metrics and evaluate whether they are credibly reproduced over the conterminous USA by the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble. We find that, while the exact values may not match the observations, aspects such as interannual variability can be reproduced by CESM2 for the mean wet day precipitation and length of dry spells. CESM2 also captures the proportion of total annual precipitation that derives from the heaviest rain days in watersheds that are not snow-dominated. Aggregating the 7 d mean daily runoff to two-digit Hydrological Unit Code (HUC2) watersheds also shows that rain-dominated regions capture the timing and interannual variability of annual maximum and minimum flows. We conclude that there is potential for far greater use of large-ensemble ESMs, such as CESM2, in long-range water management decisions to supplement high-resolution regional projections.

Tye, Mari R. (ORCID:0000000324911020)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing DESI DR1 full-shape analyses using HOD-informed priors

We present an analysis of DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) that incorporates Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD)-informed priors into Full-Shape (FS) modeling of the power spectrum based on cosmological perturbation theory (PT). By leveraging physical insights from the galaxy-halo connection, these HOD-informed priors on nuisance parameters substantially mitigate projection effects in extended cosmological models that allow for dynamical dark energy. The resulting credible intervals now encompass the posterior maximum from the baseline analysis using gaussian priors, eliminating a significant posterior shift observed in baseline studies. In the ΛCDM framework, a combined DESI DR1 FS information and constraints from the DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) — including Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) constraints and a weak prior on the scalar spectral index — yields Ω m = 0.2994 ± 0.0090 and σ 8 = 0.836$^{+0.024}_{-0.027}$, representing improvements of approximately 4% and 23% over the baseline analysis, respectively. For the w 0 w a CDM model, our results from various data combinations are highly consistent, with all configurations converging to a region with w 0 > -1 and w a < 0. This convergence not only suggests intriguing hints of dynamical dark energy but also underscores the robustness of our HOD-informed prior approach in delivering reliable cosmological constraints.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dispersion Validation for Flow Involving a Large Structure Revisited: 45 Degree Rotation

The atmospheric dispersion of contaminants in the wake of a large urban structure is a challenging fluid mechanics problem of interest to the scientific and engineering communities. Magnetic Resonance Velocimetry (MRV) and Magnetic Resonance Concentration (MRC) are relatively new techniques that leverage diagnostic equipment used primarily by the medical field to make 3D engineering measurements of flow and contaminant dispersal. SIERRA/Fuego, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code at Sandia National Labs is employed to make detailed comparisons to the dataset to evaluate the quantitative and qualitative accuracy of the model. This work is the second in a series of scenarios. In the prior work, a single large building in an array of similar buildings was considered with the wind perpendicular to a building face. In this work, the geometry is rotated by 45 degrees and improved studies are performed for simulation credibility. The comparison exercise shows conditionally good comparisons between the model and experiment. Model uncertainties are assessed through parametric variations. Various methods of quantifying the accuracy between experiments and data are examined Three-dimensional analysis of accuracy is performed. The effort helped identify deficiencies in the techniques used to make these comparisons, and further methods development therefore becomes one of the main recommendations for follow-on work.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of Lateral Groundwater Flow and Subsurface Lower Boundary Conditions on Atmospheric Boundary Layer Development over Complex Terrain

Credible soil moisture redistribution schemes are essential to meteorological models, as lower boundary moisture influences the balance of surface turbulent fluxes and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) development. While land surface models (LSMs) have vastly improved in their hydrologic representation, several commonly held assumptions, such as free-draining lower boundary, one-dimensional moisture flux, and lack of groundwater representation, can bias the terrestrial water balance. This study explores the impact of LSM hydrology representation on ABL development in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model. The results of summertime WRF simulations with Noah LSM, characterized by 2-m-thick soil and one-dimensional flow, are shown for a domain in the Colorado Rocky Mountain headwaters region. A reference WRF simulation is compared to 1) the same model with soil moisture initialized by the hydrologic model ParFlow; 2) a deep, free-draining simulation; and 3) WRF coupled to ParFlow, a three-dimensional, integrated groundwater-surface water model. Results show that both lateral transport of groundwater and the rate of drainage from the lower soil layer can weaken or reverse the coupling strength between evaporative fraction and ABL over a 5-month summer period. The resulting shifts in low-level moist convection in river valleys and thermally driven airflows yield strengthened anabatic upslope winds and perturbations to regional precipitation.

Forrester, Mary M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining the Dense Matter Equation of State with New NICER Mass–Radius Measurements and New Chiral Effective Field Theory Inputs

Pulse profile modeling of X-ray data from the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer is now enabling precision inference of neutron star mass and radius. Combined with nuclear physics constraints from chiral effective field theory (χEFT), and masses and tidal deformabilities inferred from gravitational-wave detections of binary neutron star mergers, this has led to a steady improvement in our understanding of the dense matter equation of state (EOS). Here, we consider the impact of several new results: the radius measurement for the 1.42 M ⊙ pulsar PSR J0437−4715 presented by Choudhury et al., updates to the masses and radii of PSR J0740+6620 and PSR J0030+0451, and new χEFT results for neutron star matter up to 1.5 times nuclear saturation density. Using two different high-density EOS extensions—a piecewise-polytropic (PP) model and a model based on the speed of sound in a neutron star (CS)—we find the radius of a 1.4 M ⊙ (2.0 M ⊙ ) neutron star to be constrained to the 95% credible ranges ${12.28}_{-0.76}^{+0.50}$ km (${12.33}_{-1.34}^{+0.70}$ km) for the PP model and ${12.01}_{-0.75}^{+0.56}$ km (${11.55}_{-1.09}^{+0.94}$ km) for the CS model. The maximum neutron star mass is predicted to be ${2.15}_{-0.16}^{+0.14}$M ⊙ and ${2.08}_{-0.16}^{+0.28}$M ⊙ for the PP and CS models, respectively. We explore the sensitivity of our results to different orders and different densities up to which χEFT is used, and show how the astrophysical observations provide constraints for the pressure at intermediate densities. Moreover, we investigate the difference R 2.0 − R 1.4 of the radius of 2 M ⊙ and 1.4 M ⊙ neutron stars within our EOS inference.

gravitational wave sources↗
DOE OSTI2020

Survival of Immature Gopher Tortoises Recruited into a Translocated Population

Population manipulations such as translocation and head-starting are increasingly used as recovery tools for chelonians. However, evaluating success of individual projects can require decades of monitoring to detect population trends in these long-lived species. Furthermore, there are often few benchmarks from stable, unmanipulated populations against which to compare demographic rates, particularly for the immature stages. Here, we used 8 years of mark-recapture data to estimate apparent survival of immature gopher tortoises recruited into an introduced population of gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) first established on St. Catherines Island, Georgia, USA in 1987. During 2006 29 -2013, we conducted targeted trapping of immature gopher tortoises and compared survival of the hatchling, juvenile and subadult stages among treatments: 1) individuals released shortly after hatching from eggs obtained from gravid female founders (‘direct releases’); 2) individuals reared in captivity for 6-9 months following hatching (‘head-starts’); and 3) individuals first encountered as free-ranging, wild-recruited offspring (‘wild recruits’). Among the candidate models we examined, the best fit model included additive effects of tortoise stage and treatment, however, overlapping 95% credible intervals among treatments (CI) suggested that survival did not vary significantly among treatments. Annual apparent survival increased over the immature period, highlighting the importance of calculating separate estimates for the different immature stages. Across all treatments, the additive model estimated annual apparent survival probability to be 0.37 (CI: 0.25 40 – 0.48) for hatchlings, 0.71 (CI: 0.61 – 0.81) for juveniles, and 0.83 (CI: 0.74 – 0.94) for subadults. Our study, in combination with previous monitoring efforts at St. Catherines Island, provides strong evidence that the translocation and subsequent population augmentation efforts have been successful in establishing a robust population of gopher tortoises. Additionally, our results provide estimates of demographic rates for life stages that are poorly understood but critical to understanding population dynamics of this imperiled species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Molten Salt Spreading and Heat Transfer using MELTSPREAD – Model Development Updates

This report summarizes spreading and heat transfer results calculated using MELTSPREAD for a scenario of molten FLiNaK spilling onto a flat stainless steel substrate that was inspired by the “maximum credible accident” scenario of the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE). MELTSPREAD was developed at Argonne to model the one-dimensional flowing and freezing of molten corium and was applied to model molten salts for the first time during FY21. The molten salt MELTSPREAD model that was developed during FY21 was updated as part of this work using a corrected heat of fusion value of FLiNaK and to accommodate a larger salt spill volume. The model was run with and without the inclusion of contributions from decay heat and a sensitivity analysis of initial spill conditions was performed to determine the importance of those factors on model outcome. The results provide insight into the expected spreading and heat transfer behavior of simulated and irradiated fuel salt that has been spilled and indicate aspects of the model to be revised in future versions of the MELTSPREAD model for applications to molten salt.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tritium Fires: Simulation and Safety Assessment

This is the Sandia report from a joint NSRD project between Sandia National Labs and Savannah River National Labs. The project involved development of simulation tools and data intended to be useful for tritium operations safety assessment. Tritium is a synthetic isotope of hydrogen that has a limited lifetime, and it is found at many tritium facilities in the form of elemental gas (T 2 ). The most serious risk of reasonable probability in an accident scenario is when the tritium is released and reacts with oxygen to form a water molecule, which is subsequently absorbed into the human body. This tritium oxide is more readily absorbed by the body and therefore represents a limiting factor for safety analysis. The abnormal condition of a fire may result in conversion of the safer T 2 inventory to the more hazardous oxidized form. It is this risk that tends to govern the safety protocols. Tritium fire datasets do not exist, so prescriptive safety guidance is largely conservative and reliant on means other than testing to formulate guidelines. This can have a consequence in terms of expensive and/or unnecessary mitigation design, handling protocols, and operational activities. This issue can be addressed through added studies on the behavior of tritium under representative conditions. Due to the hazards associated with the tests, this is being approached mainly from a modeling and simulation standpoint and surrogate testing. This study largely establishes the capability to generate simulation predictions with sufficiently credible characteristics to be accepted for safety guidelines as a surrogate for actual data through a variety of testing and modeling activities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Operation-adversarial scenario generation

This paper proposes a modified conditional generative adversarial network (cGAN) model to generate net load scenarios for power systems that are statistically credible, conditioned by given labels (e.g., seasons), and, at the same time, “stressful” to the system operations and dispatch decisions. The measure of stress used in this paper is based on the operating cost increases due to net load changes. The proposed operation-adversarial cGAN (OA-cGAN) internalizes a DC optimal power flow model and seeks to maximize the operating cost and achieve a worst-case data generation. The training and testing stages employed in the proposed OA-cGAN use historical day-ahead net load forecast errors and has been implemented for the realistic NYISO 11-zone system. In conclusion, our numerical experiments demonstrate that the generated operation-adversarial forecast errors lead to more cost-effective and reliable dispatch decisions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

The suitability of differentiable, physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models for ungauged regions and climate change impact assessment

As a genre of physics-informed machine learning, differentiable process-based hydrologic models (abbreviated as δ or delta models) with regionalized deep-network-based parameterization pipelines were recently shown to provide daily streamflow prediction performance closely approaching that of state-of-the-art long short-term memory (LSTM) deep networks. Meanwhile, δ models provide a full suite of diagnostic physical variables and guaranteed mass conservation. Here, we ran experiments to test (1) their ability to extrapolate to regions far from streamflow gauges and (2) their ability to make credible predictions of long-term (decadal-scale) change trends. We evaluated the models based on daily hydrograph metrics (Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, etc.) and predicted decadal streamflow trends. For prediction in ungauged basins (PUB; randomly sampled ungauged basins representing spatial interpolation), δ models either approached or surpassed the performance of LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, depending on the meteorological forcing data used. They presented a comparable trend performance to LSTM for annual mean flow and high flow but worse trends for low flow. For prediction in ungauged regions (PUR; regional holdout test representing spatial extrapolation in a highly data-sparse scenario), δ models surpassed LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, and their advantages in mean and high flow trends became prominent. In addition, an untrained variable, evapotranspiration, retained good seasonality even for extrapolated cases. The δ models' deep-network-based parameterization pipeline produced parameter fields that maintain remarkably stable spatial patterns even in highly data-scarce scenarios, which explains their robustness. Combined with their interpretability and ability to assimilate multi-source observations, the δ models are strong candidates for regional and global-scale hydrologic simulations and climate change impact assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Task 12 Sustainability - Methodological Guidelines on Net Energy Analysis of Photovoltaic Electricity (2nd Edition)

Net Energy Analysis (NEA) is a structured, comprehensive method of quantifying the extent to which a given energy source is able to provide a net energy gain (i.e., an energy surplus) to the end user, after accounting for all the energy losses occurring along the chain of processes that are required to exploit it (i.e., for its extraction, processing and transformation into a usable energy carrier, and delivery to the end user), as well as for all the additional energy 'investments' that are required in order to carry out the same chain of processes. However, this general framework leaves the individual practitioner with a range of choices that can affect the results and thus, the conclusions of a NEA study. The current IEA PVPS guidelines were developed to provide guidance on assuring consistency, balance, and quality to enhance the credibility and reliability of the results from photovoltaic (PV) NEAs. The guidelines represent a consensus among the authors - PV NEA experts in North America and Europe - for assumptions made on PV performance, process inputs and outputs, methods of analysis, and reporting of the results. Guidance is given on photovoltaic-specific parameters used as inputs in NEA and on choices and assumptions in inventory data analysis and on implementation of modelling approaches. A consistent approach towards system modelling, the functional unit, the system boundaries and allocation aspects enhance the credibility of PV electricity NEA studies and enables balanced NEA-based comparisons. Specifically, "apples-to-oranges" comparisons of different energy carriers (e.g., fuels vs. electricity) are not methodologically sound and are to be avoided in all cases; also, any comparison across renewable and non-renewable electricity generation technologies must clearly point out the intrinsically short-term nature of the NEA viewpoint, which does not capture the long-term sustainability implications of renewable vs. non-renewable primary energy harvesting and use: non-renewable primary energy resources are depleted and finally exhausted (irrespective of the size of the EROI), while renewable primary energy resources are not. This document provides an in-depth discussion of a common metric of NEA, namely the energy return on investment (EROI), and how this is to be interpreted vis-a-vis the deceptively similar-sounding metrics in the field of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA): cumulative energy demand (CED) and non-renewable cumulative energy demand (nr-CED) per unit output. Specifically, a number of key differences are highlighted between these metrics as applied to electricity production systems, which are listed in Table S-1.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Automated Posterior Estimation Techniques for Modeling Strong Lenses In Ground-based Survey Data

Current and future ground-based cosmological surveys, such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), are predicted to discover thousands to tens of thousands of strong gravitational lenses. The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future surveys will make strong lensing a highly competitive and complementary cosmic probe. However, conventional lens modeling techniques are unable to scale up to the sheer number of lenses that will be discovered through upcoming surveys. Therefore, the use of automated lens analysis techniques is necessary. We demonstrate that machine learning methods can be used to automate the inference of informative model posteriors of strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys with credible uncertainty estimation. We present two Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) approaches for lens parameter estimation of galaxy-galaxy lenses. We demonstrate applications of Neural Posteriors Estima tors (NPEs) and Bayesian Neural Network (BNNs) to automate the inference of a 12-parameter lensing system for DES-like ground-based imaging data. We apply a suite of diagnostics (e.g., posterior coverage and SBC) to validate the performance of our methods. We find that NPEs outperform the BNN, producing posterior distributions that are for the most part both more accurate and more precise; in particular, several source-light model parameters are systematically biased in the BNN implementation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

SSR COST – COmposite Structural Technologies for advanced reactor deployment (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Moltex is designing a Generation 4 or Advanced nuclear reactor, the molten salt fast spectrum SSR-W. The design intent is to reduce the cost and complexity of the nuclear systems by relying on inherent safety characteristics, instead of engineered systems. One such characteristic as a natural tendency for power to decrease as temperature increases. Another characteristic that improves natural safety is the fact that the working fluids (molten salts) are at atmospheric pressure at operating temperatures. This significantly reduces the need for pressure boundary components and systems. Moltex is highly motivated to develop simple and economic reactors to reduce the carbon intensity and improve energy security of global electricity production. The COST project investigated the opportunities for reducing construction cost of advanced reactors with the adoption of Rigid Elastic Composite Civil works (RECC). The construction design and methods used in currently operational light water power plants would generally be suboptimal for the SSR-W since there is no requirement for civil structures to withstand high pressure accidents such as hydrogen combustion or steam explosion. In parallel to downselecting the most promising RECC-type technology, accident scenarios representing the largest credible challenge to the SSR-W civil and construction design were modelled. The capability of an SSR-W reactor constructed with and without the selected construction technology was evaluated and the consequential licensing challenges identified. A construction schedule and cost estimate of the SSR-W with and without the selected RECC construction technology was developed. Once the above data was collected, then Moltex was able to review the safety performance, license-ability and cost/schedule benefit of applying the preferred construction technology. The CAPEX/NPV benefit was quantified, and the licensing risks and opportunities were documented. Finally, the CAPEX/NPV benefit of the advanced construction technology was modest due to the suitability of traditional stick-built construction for the SSR-W design. However, previously unidentified benefits of the advanced construction technology were revealed during the studies that could credibly de-risk certain aspects of the design to be licensed. Since licensing (duration and delays) are very significant in new build project costs, the cost benefits may be significant. Further studies on the risk reduction of the construction technology are foreseen.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparing ICME simulations with scaled laboratory experiment

In stellar physics and astrophysics, numerical simulations and laboratory experiments are often compared to observational data to support their representation of the real world. However, there is also merit in comparing numerical simulations to properly scaled experiments, especially when the experiment and the simulation are both emulating the solar phenomena. Confirming the credibility of scaled experiments and their scaling with well-validated models is important to expand our knowledge of the associated physical phenomena. This is significant because experiments and simulations can be performed frequently, whereas observations may be limited by location, field of view, and missing data. In this work, we use the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model, a well-validated magnetohydrodynamic model, to simulate an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) and compare it to an experiment which provides a scaled analog to a physical ICME. The experiment was performed on the Big Red Ball facility and scaled using dimensionless parameters such as plasma β and magnetosonic Mach number to reproduce the main structure of an ICME. We compare the model-simulated temperature, density, and magnetic field to those from the experiment, as well as the scaling parameters used in the experiment, to those calculated from the simulation. This comparison is performed to further justify the scaling arguments made by the experiment. Additionally, the comparison would lead to the development of stronger scaling arguments for future experiments.

Bryant, K. [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI ↗