Comments on 'Density distribution in looplike coronal transients: A comparison of observations and a theoretical model' by D. G. Sime, R. M. MacQueen, and A. J. Hundhausen
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Dryer, M.↗
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Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses
This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 W/sq m per K of SST change. Model results agree reasonably well with this estimate of sensitivity. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. There remain, however, significant quantitative uncertainties in cloud forcing changes in the models as compared to observations. These differences are examined in relationship to model convection and cloud parameterizations Analysis of the possible sampling and measurement errors compared to systematic model errors is also presented.
Robertson, Franklin R.↗
A Statistical Perspective on Climate Informatics
No abstract available
spatio-temporal statistical modeling↗
Investigation of Global Particulate Nitrate from the AeroCom Phase III Experiment
An assessment of global particulate nitrate and ammonium aerosol based on simulations from nine models participating in the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) phase III study is presented. A budget analysis was conducted to understand the typical magnitude, distribution, and diversity of the aerosols and their precursors among the models. To gain confidence regarding model performance, the model results were evaluated with various observations globally, including ground station measurements over North America, Europe, and east Asia for tracer concentrations and dry and wet depositions, as well as with aircraft measurements in the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes for tracer vertical distributions. Given the unique chemical and physical features of the nitrate occurrence, we further investigated the similarity and differentiation among the models by examining (1) the pH-dependent NH3 wet deposition; (2) the nitrate formation via heterogeneous chemistry on the surface of dust and sea salt particles or thermodynamic equilibrium calculation including dust and sea salt ions; and (3) the nitrate coarse-mode fraction (i.e., coarse/total). It is found that HNO3, which is simulated explicitly based on full O3-HOx-NOx-aerosol chemistry by all models, differs by up to a factor of 9 among the models in its global tropospheric burden. This partially contributes to a large difference in NO3(-), whose atmospheric burden differs by up to a factor of 13. The atmospheric burdens of NH3 and NHC 4 differ by 17 and 4, respectively. Analyses at the process level show that the large diversity in atmospheric burdens of NO3(-), NH3, and NHC4(+) is also related to deposition processes. Wet deposition seems to be the dominant process in determining the diversity in NH3 and NHC 4 lifetimes. It is critical to correctly account for contributions of heterogeneous chemical production of nitrate on dust and sea salt, because this process overwhelmingly controls atmospheric nitrate production (typically greater than 80 %) and determines the coarse- and fine-mode distribution of nitrate aerosol.
Ammonium aerosol based on simulations↗
Closed coronal structures. III - Comparison of static models with X-ray, EUV, and radio observations
Numerical models of static coronal loops in energy balance are compared with high spatial resolution observations of extreme ultraviolet lines, broad-band X-ray emission, and interferometric observations at 2.8 cm of a solar active region. Difficulties of using scaling laws to test static models of coronal loops are reviewed. The theoretical model used for the comparison is summarized; the detailed X-ray, EUV, and microwave observations of the selected active region are presented; and the comparison of the model with the observations is performed. It is shown that simple static models with conductive flux vanishing at the loop base reproduce satisfactorily the observed properties in the upper portion of loop structures from compact, high-pressure loops in the core of the region to more extended, fainter loops and to large-scale loops interconnecting different active regions. Effects of changing loop parameters are investigated, and it is argued, that in contrast to the present approach, scaling laws cannot be used to discriminate between different static energy balance models. Some discrepancy is found between model predictions and observations for the lower sections of loop structures. Possible causes of the discrepancy are discussed.
Pallavicini, R.↗
Observations and Modeling of Composition of Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UTILS): Isentropic Mixing Events and Morphology of HNO3 as Observed by HIRDLS and Comparison with Results from Global Modeling Initiative
isentropic exchange of air masses between the tropical upper troposphere and mid-latitude lowermost stratosphere (the so-called "middle world") is an important pathway for stratospheric-tropospheric exchange. A seasonal, global view of this process has been difficult to obtain, in part due to the lack of the vertical resolution in satellite observations needed to capture the laminar character of these events. Ozone observations at a resolution of about 1 km from the High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) on NASA's Aura satellite show instances of these intrusions. Such intrusions should also be observable in HN03 observations; however, the abundances of nitric acid could be additionally controlled by chemical processes or incorporation and removal into ice clouds. We present a systematic examination of the HIRDLS data on O3 and HNO3 to determine the seasonal and spatial characteristics of the distribution of isentropic intrusions. At the same time, we compare the observed distributions with those calculated by the Global Modeling Initiative combined tropospheric-stratospheric model, which has a vertical resolution of about I km. This Chemical Transport Model (CTM) is driven by meteorological fields obtained from the GEOS-4 system of NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), for the Aura time period, at a vertical resolution of about 1 km. Such comparison brings out the successes and limitations of the model in representing isentropic stratospheric-tropospheric exchange, and the different processes controlling HNO3 in the UTAS.
Rodriquez, J. M.↗
Tests and comparisons of gravity models.
Optical observations of the GEOS satellites were used to obtain orbital solutions with different sets of geopotential coefficients. The solutions were compared before and after modification to high order terms (necessary because of resonance) and were then analyzed by comparing subsequent observations with predicted trajectories. The most important source of error in orbit determination and prediction for the GEOS satellites is the effect of resonance found in most published sets of geopotential coefficients. Modifications to the sets yield greatly improved orbits in most cases. The results of these comparisons suggest that with the best optical tracking systems and gravity models, satellite position error due to gravity model uncertainty can reach 50-100 m during a heavily observed 5-6 day orbital arc. If resonant coefficients are estimated, the uncertainty is reduced considerably.
Marsh, J. G.↗
Model Simulations of Ozone in the Summer Lower Stratosphere
The Goddard 3D chemistry and transport model (CTM) uses winds and temperatures from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS); thus CTM simulations can be compared directly with observations from satellite, balloon and aircraft. In general, aspects of these comparisons show remarkable agreement between observation and model. One significant difference is that the model ozone is high biased below the ozone peak. The bias is apparently largest at high latitudes during the summer months. At the same time, comparisons with HALOE observations show that at mid to high latitudes, the ozone mixing ratio peak appears persistently at a lower altitude than observed by HALOE; the peak mixing ratio is also overestimated by the model. Both transport and photochemistry are possible contributors to the biased ozone in the lower stratosphere - excessive downward motion would increase lower stratospheric ozone, as would a too large vertical gradient in ozone. On the other hand, comparisons of model N2O and NOy with observations suggest transport deficiencies in the opposite sense, i.e., model N2O can be high relative to observations (particularly during winter), suggesting the need for stronger downward transport. Sensitivity studies have been carried out using parameterizations for ozone production and loss, NOy production and loss, and N2O loss. The goal of these studies is to clarify how problems in the photochemical scheme at and above the ozone peak influence the lower stratospheric ozone.
Douglass, Anne R.↗
Simulation of the present-day atmospheric ozone, odd nitrogen, chlorine and other species using a coupled 2-D model in isentropic coordinates
A zonally averaged two-dimensional model for chemical species in the atmosphere (Olaguer et al., 1990), with coupled dynamics, radiation transfer, and chemistry, is used to study the present-day atmospheric ozone, odd nitrogen, chlorine, other species. The model utilizes all zonally averaged physical equations of momentum, energy, and mass and determines self-consistently the advective and diffusive tranasport parameters from the temperature specific to the period of observation. A comparison of the model results with observations showed good agreement.
Yang, H.↗
Sources, Sinks, and Transatlantic Transport of North African Dust Aerosol: A Multimodel Analysis and Comparison With Remote Sensing Data
This study evaluates model-simulated dust aerosols over North Africa and the North Atlantic from five global models that participated in the Aerosol Comparison between Observations and Models phase II model experiments. The model results are compared with satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor, dust optical depth (DOD) derived from MODIS and MISR, AOD and coarse-mode AOD (as a proxy of DOD) from ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network Sun photometer measurements, and dust vertical distributions/centroid height from Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite AOD retrievals. We examine the following quantities of AOD and DOD: (1) the magnitudes over land and over ocean in our study domain, (2) the longitudinal gradient from the dust source region over North Africa to the western North Atlantic, (3) seasonal variations at different locations, and (4) the dust vertical profile shape and the AOD centroid height (altitude above or below which half of the AOD is located). The different satellite data show consistent features in most of these aspects; however, the models display large diversity in all of them, with significant differences among the models and between models and observations. By examining dust emission, removal, and mass extinction efficiency in the five models, we also find remarkable differences among the models that all contribute to the discrepancies of model-simulated dust amount and distribution. This study highlights the challenges in simulating the dust physical and optical processes, even in the best known dust environment, and stresses the need for observable quantities to constrain the model processes.
Africa↗
Observationally constrained analysis on the distribution of fine- and coarse-mode nitrate in global models
Nitrate plays an important role in the Earth system and air quality. A key challenge in simulating the life cycle of nitrate aerosol in global models is to accurately represent mass size distribution of nitrate aerosol. In this study, we evaluate the performance of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) and the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), along with Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) phase III models, in simulating spatial distribution of fine-mode nitrate, the mass size distribution of fine- and coarse-mode nitrate, and the gas–aerosol partitioning between nitric acid gas and nitrate, using long-term ground-based observations and measurements from multiple aircraft campaigns. We find that most models underestimate the annual mean PM 2.5 (particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 µm) nitrate surface concentration averaged over all sites. The observed nitrate PM 2.5 / PM 10 and PM 1 / PM 4 ratios are influenced by the relative contribution of fine sulfate or organic particles and coarse dust or sea salt particles. Overall, the ground-based observations give an annual mean surface nitrate PM 2.5 / PM 10 ratio of 0.7. Most models underestimate the annual mean PM 2.5 / PM 10 ratio in all regions. There are large spreads in the modeled nitrate PM 1 / PM 4 ratios, which span the full range from 0 to 1. Most models underestimate the surface molar ratio of nitrate to total inorganic nitrate averaged across all sites. Our study indicates the importance of gas–aerosol partition parameterization and the simulation of dust and sea salt in correctly simulating the mass size distribution of nitrate.
Nitrate↗
Evaluation of GEOS Total Cloud Fraction with GLOBE Citizen Science Observations and Co-Located Satellite Data
Here we evaluate the total cloud fraction in cycled forecast experiments with the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. Forecasts were run for summer and winter periods of 2017/2018 and compared with ground-based and satellite observations. Citizen science observations from the Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) Program were matched with MODIS satellite overpasses and geostationary cloud fraction, yielding a dataset of coincident observations for comparison with hourly model output. The observations indicate a model bias toward overcast and clear conditions, with underestimation of intermediate cloud fractions. We investigate underestimation of variance in the sub-grid total water probability density function (PDF) as a possible cause. The PDF determines large-scale cloud fraction as the sub-grid fraction with total water exceeding the saturation specific humidity. We conduct model experiments in which the shape, width, and spatial dependence of the PDF are varied, and consider the impacts on cloud fraction relative to the combined observations.
Starke, Matthew↗
CNO abundances and hydrodynamic models of the Nova outbursts. 4: Comparison with observations
A variety of observations of novae are discussed in light of theoretical models. It is proposed that the nearly constant bolometric luminosity of FH Ser originates in the non-degenerate hydrogen-burning region at the bottom of the hydrogen-rich envelope which remains after the primary ejection. The shift of the wavelength of peak emission from the visual to shortward of the ultraviolet is caused by the decrease of the photospheric radius of the remnant envelope as the bolometric luminosity stays nearly constant. The oscillations in the light curve of GK Per during the transition stage can be explained by a pulsation of the remnant envelope when it is the size of the Roche lobe. The CNO over-abundances in novae reported by various observers are strongly suggestive of this nova mechanism. Finally, the implications of the upper limits of C-13 and N-15 in DQ Her are discussed.
Sparks, W. M.↗
CNO abundances and hydrodynamic models of the nova outburst. IV - Comparison with observations
A variety of observations of novae are discussed in light of theoretical models. It is proposed that the nearly constant bolometric luminosity of FH Ser originates in the nondegenerate hydrogen-burning region at the bottom of the hydrogen-rich envelope which remains after the primary ejection. The shift of the wavelength of peak emission from the visual to shortward of the ultraviolet is caused by the decrease of the photospheric radius of the remnant envelope as the bolometric luminosity stays nearly constant. The oscillations in the light curve of GK Per during the transition stage can be explained by a pulsation of the remnant envelope when it is larger than the semimajor axis of the binary system. The CNO overabundances in novae reported by various observers are strongly suggestive of the proposed nova mechanism. Implications of the upper limits on C-13 and N-15 found in DQ Her are discussed.
Sparks, W. M.↗
AeroCom Phase III Multi-Model Evaluation of the Aerosol Life Cycle and Optical Properties Using Ground and Space-Based Remote Sensing as Well as Surface In Situ Observations
Within the framework of the AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) initiative, the state-of-the-art modelling of aerosol optical properties is assessed from 14 global models participating in the phase III control experiment (AP3). The models are similar to CMIP6/AerChemMIP Earth System Models (ESMs) and provide a robust multi-model ensemble. Inter-model spread of aerosol species lifetimes and emissions appears to be similar to that of mass extinction coefficients (MECs), suggesting that aerosol optical depth (AOD) uncertainties are associated with a broad spectrum of parameterised aerosol processes. Total AOD is approximately the same as in AeroCom phase I (AP1) simulations. However, we find a 50 % decrease in the optical depth (OD) of black carbon (BC), attributable to a combination of decreased emissions and lifetimes. Relative contributions from sea salt (SS) and dust (DU) have shifted from being approximately equal in AP1 to SS contributing about 2∕3 of the natural AOD in AP3. This shift is linked with a decrease in DU mass burden, a lower DU MEC, and a slight decrease in DU lifetime, suggesting coarser DU particle sizes in AP3 compared to AP1. Relative to observations, the AP3 ensemble median and most of the participating models underestimate all aerosol optical properties investigated, that is, total AOD as well as fine and coarse AOD (AODf, AODc), Ångström exponent (AE), dry surface scattering (SCdry), and absorption (ACdry) coefficients. Compared to AERONET, the models underestimate total AOD by ca. 21 % ± 20 % (as inferred from the ensemble median and interquartile range). Against satellite data, the ensemble AOD biases range from −37 % (MODIS-Terra) to −16 % (MERGED-FMI, a multi-satellite AOD product), which we explain by differences between individual satellites and AERONET measurements themselves. Correlation coefficients (R) between model and observation AOD records are generally high (R>0.75), suggesting that the models are capable of capturing spatio-temporal variations in AOD. We find a much larger underestimate in coarse AODc (∼ −45 % ± 25 %) than in fine AODf (∼ −15 % ± 25 %) with slightly increased inter-model spread compared to total AOD. These results indicate problems in the modelling of DU and SS. The AODc bias is likely due to missing DU over continental land masses (particularly over the United States, SE Asia, and S. America), while marine AERONET sites and the AATSR SU satellite data suggest more moderate oceanic biases in AODc. Column AEs are underestimated by about 10 % ± 16 %. For situations in which measurements show AE > 2, models underestimate AERONET AE by ca. 35 %. In contrast, all models (but one) exhibit large overestimates in AE when coarse aerosol dominates (bias ca. +140 % if observed AE < 0.5). Simulated AE does not span the observed AE variability. These results indicate that models overestimate particle size (or underestimate the fine-mode fraction) for fine-dominated aerosol and underestimate size (or overestimate the fine-mode fraction) for coarse-dominated aerosol. This must have implications for lifetime, water uptake, scattering enhancement, and the aerosol radiative effect, which we can not quantify at this moment. Comparison against Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) in situ data results in mean bias and inter-model variations of −35 % ± 25 % and −20 % ± 18 % for SCdry and ACdry, respectively. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ACdry suggests the models will simulate an aerosol single scattering albedo that is too low. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ambient air AOD is consistent with recent findings that models overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. The broadly consistent negative bias in AOD and surface scattering suggests an underestimate of aerosol radiative effects in current global aerosol models. Considerable inter-model diversity in the simulated optical properties is often found in regions that are, unfortunately, not or only sparsely covered by ground-based observations. This includes, for instance, the Sahara, Amazonia, central Australia, and the South Pacific. This highlights the need for a better site coverage in the observations, which would enable us to better assess the models, but also the performance of satellite products in these regions. Using fine-mode AOD as a proxy for present-day aerosol forcing estimates, our results suggest that models underestimate aerosol forcing by ca. −15 %, however, with a considerably large interquartile range, suggesting a spread between −35 % and +10 %.
space-based remote sensing↗
A two-dimensional model study of the QBO signal in SAGE II NO2 and O3
Calculations of the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) signal in Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II O3 and NO2 data between 1984 and 1991 are presented and have been investigated by using a two-dimensional model. The isentropic 2D model is a fully interactive radiative-dynamical-chemical model in which the eddy fluxes of chemical species are calculated in a consistent manner. The QBO in the model has been forced by relaxing the equatorial zonal wind toward the observations at Singapore allowing the comparison of the model with observations from specific years. The model reproduces the observed vertical structure of the equatorial ozone anomaly with the well-known transition from dynamical to photochemical control at around 28km. The model also reproduces the observed vertical structure of the SAGE II observed NO2 anomaly. The model studies have shown that it is the QBO modulation of NO2 which the main cause of QBO signal in O3 above 30 km. The model also reproduces the observed latitudinal structure of the QBO signals in O3 and NO2. Due to the differing horizontal distribution of O3 and NO(y) the ozone signal shows a distinct phase change in the subtropics whereas the NO2 anomaly gives a broader signal.
Chipperfield, M. P.↗
Kinetics of hydrogen-oxygen and methane-oxygen ignition sensitized by NO or NO2
In a study of methane ignition sensitized by NO2, the induction period chemical kinetics were examined by monitoring reactants and intermediates (CH4, NO2, OH, NO, CO, CO2, and H2O) prior to ignition. Data were obtained at pressure of 2-4 atm, temperatures of 1300-1900 K, equivalence ratios of 0.5-1.0, and NO2 up to 3.4 mole %. A tentative NO2 sensitization mechanism was deduced from the analysis of photometric observations and the comparison of computer modeling with observations.
Slack, M. W.↗
Impact of Archeomagnetic Field Model Data on Modern Era Geomagnetic Forecasts
A series of geomagnetic data assimilation experiments have been carried out to demonstrate the impact of assimilating archeomagnetic data via the CALS3k.4 geomagnetic field model from the period between 10 and 1590 CE. The assimilation continues with the gufm1 model from 1590 to 1990 and CM4 model from 1990 to 2000 as observations, and comparisons between these models and the geomagnetic forecasts are used to determine an optimal maximum degree for the archeomagnetic observations, and to independently estimate errors for these observations. These are compared with an assimilation experiment that uses the uncertainties provided with CALS3k.4. Optimal 20 year forecasts in 1990 are found when the Gauss coefficients up to degree 3 are assimilated. In addition we demonstrate how a forecast and observation bias correction scheme could be used to reduce bias in modern era forecasts. Initial experiments show that this approach can reduce modern era forecast biases by as much as 50 percent.
Tangborn, Andrew↗