Comparison of a Neutral Density Model With the SET HASDM Density Database
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Daniel R Weimer↗
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A compressed marine data set for geomagnetic field modeling
Some 13 million scalar magnetic field data points that have been collected from the world's ocean areas reside in the collection of the National Geophysical Data Center. In order to derive a suitable data set for modeling the geomagnetic field of the earth, each ship track is divided into 220 km segments. The distribution of the reduced data in position, time and local time is discussed. The along-track filtering process described has proved to be an effective method of condensing large numbers of shipborne magnetic data into a manageable and meaningful data set for field modeling. This process also provides the benefits of smoothing short-wavelength crystal anomalies, discarding data recorded during magnetically noisy periods, and assigning reasonable error estimates to be utilized in the least squares modeling.
Langel, R. A.↗
Lidar-Based Estimates of Above-Ground Biomass in the Continental US and Mexico Using Ground, Airborne, and Satellite Observations
Existing national forest inventory plots, an airborne lidar scanning (ALS) system, and a space profiling lidar system (ICESat-GLAS) are used to generate circa 2005 estimates of total aboveground dry biomass (AGB) in forest strata, by state, in the continental United States (CONUS) and Mexico. The airborne lidar is used to link ground observations of AGB to space lidar measurements. Two sets of models are generated, the first relating ground estimates of AGB to airborne laser scanning (ALS) measurements and the second set relating ALS estimates of AGB (generated using the first model set) to GLAS measurements. GLAS then, is used as a sampling tool within a hybrid estimation framework to generate stratum-, state-, and national-level AGB estimates. A two-phase variance estimator is employed to quantify GLAS sampling variability and, additively, ALS-GLAS model variability in this current, three-phase (ground-ALS-space lidar) study. The model variance component characterizes the variability of the regression coefficients used to predict ALS-based estimates of biomass as a function of GLAS measurements. Three different types of predictive models are considered in CONUS to determine which produced biomass totals closest to ground-based national forest inventory estimates - (1) linear (LIN), (2) linear-no-intercept (LNI), and (3) log-linear. For CONUS at the national level, the GLAS LNI model estimate (23.95 +/- 0.45 Gt AGB), agreed most closely with the US national forest inventory ground estimate, 24.17 +/- 0.06 Gt, i.e., within 1%. The national biomass total based on linear ground-ALS and ALS-GLAS models (25.87 +/- 0.49 Gt) overestimated the national ground-based estimate by 7.5%. The comparable log-linear model result (63.29 +/-1.36 Gt) overestimated ground results by 261%. All three national biomass GLAS estimates, LIN, LNI, and log-linear, are based on 241,718 pulses collected on 230 orbits. The US national forest inventory (ground) estimates are based on 119,414 ground plots. At the US state level, the average absolute value of the deviation of LNI GLAS estimates from the comparable ground estimate of total biomass was 18.8% (range: Oregon,−40.8% to North Dakota, 128.6%). Log-linear models produced gross overestimates in the continental US, i.e., N2.6x, and the use of this model to predict regional biomass using GLAS data in temperate, western hemisphere forests is not appropriate. The best model form, LNI, is used to produce biomass estimates in Mexico. The average biomass density in Mexican forests is 53.10 +/- 0.88 t/ha, and the total biomass for the country, given a total forest area of 688,096 sq km, is 3.65 +/- 0.06 Gt. In Mexico, our GLAS biomass total underestimated a 2005 FAO estimate (4.152 Gt) by 12% and overestimated a 2007/8 radar study's figure (3.06 Gt) by 19%.
Hybrid 3-Phase sampling↗
Utilization of UARS Data in Validation of Photochemical and Dynamical Mechanism in Stratospheric Models
UARS data sets provide global coverage for the distributions of trace gases, which gives us an excellent chance to utilize the data set for model-data intercomparison studies. In the past three months, we have been working on the comparisons of the UARS data between 1992 (a half year after the Pinatubo eruption) and 1993 (one and a half year after the eruption) in an attempt to see how the Pinatubo volcanic eruption may have impacted stratospheric chemistry.
Rodriquez, Jose M.↗
Investigating Access Performance of Long Time Series with Restructured Big Model Data
Data sets generated by models are substantially increasing in volume, due to increases in spatial and temporal resolution, and the number of output variables. Many users wish to download subsetted data in preferred data formats and structures, as it is getting increasingly difficult to handle the original full-size data files. For example, application research users such as those involved with wind or solar energy, or extreme weather events are likely only interested in daily or hourly model data at a single point (or for a small area) for a long time period, and prefer to have the data downloaded in a single file. With native model file structures, such as hourly data from NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2), it may take over 10 hours for the extraction of parameters-of-interest at a single point for 30 years. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) is exploring methods to address this particular user need. One approach is to create value-added data by reconstructing the data files. Taking MERRA-2 data as an example, we have tested converting hourly data from one-day-per-file into different data cubes, such as one-month, or one-year. Performance is compared for reading local data files and accessing data through interoperable services, such as OPeNDAP. Results show that, compared to the original file structure, the new data cubes offer much better performance for accessing long time series. We have noticed that performance is associated with the cube size and structure, the compression method, and how the data are accessed. An optimized data cube structure will not only improve data access, but also may enable better online analysis services
reanalysis↗
Calculation of geopotential and temperature fields from an array of nearly continuous wind observations
The accuracy is studied of temperature estimates derived from the divergence equation when wind observations of various spatial and temporal resolutions and accuracies are available. The basic data set used is the high resolution model data set used by Kuo and Anthes (1984a) in observing systems simulation experiments (OSSE) designed to estimate the errors in heat and moisture budgets (Kuo and Anthes, 1984b) calculated from the AVE-SESAME-1979 spatial observational network. This model data set is modified in ways to simulate wind observations that appear feasible from an operational regional network of wind profilers.
Kuo, Ying-Hwa↗
Dynamical instabilities in axisymmetric stellar systems. I - Oblate E6 models
The stability of a set of models based on isothermal oblate E6 elliptical galaxies is studied using N-body techniques. The only stable models are those that are near the isotropic model and have nearly equal number of stars in retrograde and prograde orbits. Fast rotators are unstable to modes that appear to be analogous to the classical streaming instability seen in many disk systems. Systems with a large velocity dispersion in the direction of the cylindrical radius are unstable to modes that appear to be similar to the radial orbit instability observed in some spherical systems. However, evidence is presented that these two instabilities may be related, and an instability criterion that applies to both is constructed.
Levison, Harold F.↗
One Small Step for Creo Modelers, One Giant Leap for "Grey Beards": Using MBD Methodologies to Launch Astronauts and Hardware to Near-Earth Objects such as Asteroids, the Moon and Mars
This presentation will focus on the modernization of design and engineering practices through the use of Model Based Definition methodology. By gathering important engineering data into one 3D digital data set, applying model annotations, and setting up model view states directly in the 3D CAD model, model-specific information can be published to Windchill and CreoView for use during the Design Review Process. This presentation will describe the methods that have been incorporated into the modeling.
Jones, Corey↗
Interim Reference Ozone Models for the Middle Atmosphere
A set of models was generated based on six satellite experiments of the monthly latitudinal variations in total column ozone and the vertical structure of ozone from 20 mb to 0.003 mb. Generally, interannual variability in monthly zonal means is only a few percent. Comparisons of measurements using various techniques to measure global ozone reveal very good agreement between the techniques. Agreement between individual satellite experiments and the reference model of monthly zonal means is generally within 10% below altitudes of 0.4 mb. This has allowed the first global model of ozone measurements to be constructed from multiple sets of satellite measurements. The ozone measurements based on the satellite data are in excellent agreement with previous midlatitude mean annual model based on rocket and balloon data. Also, models are provided of the relation between total ozone and vertical structure.
Keating, G. M.↗
Evaluation of dynamical downscaling in a fully coupled regional earth system model
A set of decadal simulations has been completed and evaluated for gains using the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to dynamically downscale data from a global Earth system model and two atmospheric reanalyses. RASM is a fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice regional Earth system model. Nudging to the forcing data is applied to approximately the top half of the atmospheric domain. RASM simulations were also completed with a modification to the atmospheric physics for evaluating changes to the modeling system. The results show that for the top half of the atmosphere, the RASM simulations follow closely to that of the forcing data, regardless of the forcing data. The results for the lower half of the atmosphere, as well as the surface, show a clustering of atmospheric state and surface fluxes based on the modeling system. At all levels of the atmosphere the imprint of the weather from the forcing data is present as indicated in the pattern of the annual means. Biases, in comparison to reanalyses, are evident in the Earth system model forced simulations for the top half of the atmosphere but are not present in the lower atmosphere. This suggests that bias correction is not needed for fully coupled dynamical downscaling simulations. While the RASM simulations tended to go to the same mean state for the lower atmosphere, there are a differences in the variability and changes of weather patterns across the ensemble of simulations. These differences in the weather result in variances in the sea ice and oceanic states.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Test of an adjustable pitch model propeller at four blade settings
This note describes tests of an adjustable blade metal model propeller, both in a free wind stream and in combination with a model fuselage, at four settings of the blades. The model propeller is designed for a uniform nominal pitch/diameter ratio of .7 and the blade settings used correspond to nominal pitch/diameter ratios of .5, .7, .9, and 1.1 at the .6 radius. The tests show that propellers of this type may be considerably changed in setting from the designed pitch angles and yet give excellent performance. The efficiency realized and power absorbed when blades are set at other than the designed angle, are little different than would be obtained from a propeller with uniform pitch equal to the mean pitch of the propeller under test.
Lesley, E P↗
Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the earth SysTem (CATALYST)
CATALYST proposes to perform foundational coordinated research in a team-oriented collaborative effort aimed at advancing a robust understanding of modes of Earth system variability and change using models, observations and process studies. The proposed research will address the DOE/BER mission by exploring the limits to predictability, identifying fundamental underlying mechanisms, quantifying interactions among modes of variability, and discovering tipping points in the Earth system to understand the current and future impacts of these phenomena on regional and global climate. Four fundamental gaps are identified in our knowledge of the Earth system: 1) What are the limits to predictability on various timescales? 2) What are the interactions among modes of Earth system variability? 3) How may modes of Earth system variability change in response to changes in external forcing, and what are the tipping points involved with those changes? 4) How are high impact events connected to modes of Earth system variability and how may they change in the future? Related to those gaps in our knowledge, we formulate four research objectives to address those gaps using a combination of Earth system models (ESMs) and machine learning (ML) methods. Research Objective 1 (RO1) addresses the first gap above and proposes to understand modes of variability and their limits of predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales using ESMs and ML. Research Objective 2 (RO2) addresses the second gap and proposes to use a hierarchy of models to understand relevant processes and feedbacks related to how modes of variability interact with each other. Research Objective 3 (RO3) is designed to study the third gap and proposes to examine the role of external forcings in changes of modes of Earth system variability and their interactions, and the likelihood and predictability of tipping points and irreversible changes. Research Objective 4 (RO4) will address the fourth gap and proposes to use high resolution ESMs, regionally refined models (RRMs), and ML methods to investigate the relationships between high impact events (e.g. flash droughts and precipitation extremes, atmospheric rivers (ARs), tropical cyclones (TCs), storm surge/sea level rise), the synoptic systems that produce them, and their changes related to modes of Earth system variability. The research will involve the use of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), CMIP multi-model data sets, a hierarchy of simpler models, and numerous observational data sets. In the course of the proposed research, CATALYST will contribute to metrics and diagnostics that will be integrated in Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC), particularly with regards to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and its interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), high atmospheric pressure blocking, and new precipitation metrics.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Materials Database Development for Ballistic Impact Modeling
A set of experimental data is being generated under the Fundamental Aeronautics Program Supersonics project to help create and validate accurate computational impact models of jet engine impact events. The data generated will include material property data generated at a range of different strain rates, from 1x10(exp -4)/sec to 5x10(exp 4)/sec, over a range of temperatures. In addition, carefully instrumented ballistic impact tests will be conducted on flat plates and curved structures to provide material and structural response information to help validate the computational models. The material property data and the ballistic impact data will be generated using materials from the same lot, as far as possible. It was found in preliminary testing that the surface finish of test specimens has an effect on measured high strain rate tension response of AL2024. Both the maximum stress and maximum elongation are greater on specimens with a smoother finish. This report gives an overview of the testing that is being conducted and presents results of preliminary testing of the surface finish study.
Pereira, J. Michael↗
Adaptive pattern recognition by using a predictive model in construction of similarity sets
Adaptive pattern recognition by using predictive model in construction of similarity sets
Haralick, R. M.↗
Extensions to the CIRA reference models for middle atmosphere ozone
The recent ozone reference models generated for the new COSPAR CIRA include ozone vertical structure from 25 to 90 km as a function of month and latitude based on five satellite experiments. The new model provided here extends the ozone vertical structure climatology from 20 mb (about 25 km) to 70 mb (about 18 km) based on three years of recently reprocessed AEM-2 SAGE I (sunset) data. In addition, model refinements are made at altitudes above 25 km based on the reprocessed data. Comparisons are made between the ozone reference models and nonsatellite data sets. The model extensions to lower altitudes are in excellent agreement with in situ measurements both at mid latitudes and in the tropics. Annual mean models of ozone are also provided as a function of latitude from 100 mb (about 16 km) to 0.003 mb (about 90 km).
Keating, G. M.↗
Analysis of energy balance models using the ERBE data set
A review of Energy Balance Models is presented. Results from the Outgoing Longwave Radiation parameterization are discussed. The albedo parameterizations and the consequences of the new parameterizations are examined.
Graves, Charles E.↗
Convex set and linear mixing model
A major goal of optical remote sensing is to determine surface compositions of the earth and other planetary objects. For assessment of composition, single pixels in multi-spectral images usually record a mixture of the signals from various materials within the corresponding surface area. In this report, we introduce a closed and bounded convex set as a mathematical model for linear mixing. This model has a clear geometric implication because the closed and bounded convex set is a natural generalization of a triangle in n-space. The endmembers are extreme points of the convex set. Every point in the convex closure of the endmembers is a linear mixture of those endmembers, which is exactly how linear mixing is defined. With this model, some general criteria for selecting endmembers could be described. This model can lead to a better understanding of linear mixing models.
Xu, P.↗