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At least 109 records · Page 6

Vertical Transport of Water/Contaminant Due to Intermittent Water Influx on the Ground Surface of Vadose Zone - 20088

For movement of moisture and transport of contaminants in the vertical direction, two equations, the Richards equation and the advection-dispersion equation, are solved in a vadose zone for prescribed water and contaminant influx conditions at the ground surface. Two different boundary conditions are considered, one with a single peak of sinusoidal variation and four peaks of finite duration, each of which is sinusoidal in shape. The moisture migration is solved and then the contaminant transport, which is coupled to moisture movement, is solved. In the case of a single influx on the ground surface, at first the hydraulic head and moisture content show a peak. Then above the peak and below the ground surface, the peaks tend to die out, showing a tendency to return to the initial state. The vertical profile of concentration also shows a single peak, which soon becomes stagnant because downward water migration is faster than concentration profile movement. In the case of four intermittent array of peaks, the hydraulic head and moisture content profiles tend to merge and combine together. The concentration profiles show appearance of four peaks clearly. However, although the peak value of concentration remains quite constant, the values may vary with the sorption coefficient because of repeated influx of water and contaminant through the top boundary, the ground surface. The penetration depth decreases with an increasing sorption coefficient. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reflectance spectra of subarctic lichens

Lichens constitute a major portion of the ground cover of high latitude environments, but little has been reported concerning their in situ solar spectral reflectance properties. Knowledge of these properties is important for the interpretation of remotely sensed observations from high latitude regions, as well as in studies of high latitude ecology and energy balance climatology. The spectral reflectance of common boreal vascular plants is similar to that of vascular plants of the midlatitudes. The dominant lichens, in contrast, display variable reflectance patterns in visible wavelengths. The relative reflectance peak at 0.55 microns, common to green vegetation, is absent or indistinct in spectra of pervasive boreal forest and tundra lichens, despite the presence of chlorophyll in the inner algal cells. Lichens of the dominant genus, Cladina, display strong absorption of ultraviolet energy and short-wavelength blue light relative to their absorption in other visible wavelengths. Since the Cladinae dominate both the surface vegetation in open woodlands of the boreal forest and the low arctic tundra, their unusual spectral reflectance patterns will enable accurate monitoring of the boreal forest-tundra ecotone and detection of its vigor and movement in the future.

Petzold, Donald E.↗

Vadose zone flushing of fertilizer tracked by isotopes of water and nitrate

Abstract A substantial fraction of nitrogen (N) fertilizer applied in agricultural systems is not incorporated into crops and moves below the rooting zone as nitrate (NO 3 − ). Understanding mechanisms for soil N retention below the rooting zone and leaching to groundwater is essential for our ability to track the fate of added N. We used dual stable isotopes of nitrate (δ 15 N–NO 3 − and δ 18 O–NO 3 − ) and water (δ 18 O–H 2 O and δ 2 H–H 2 O) to understand the mechanisms driving nitrate leaching at three depths (0.8, 1.5, and 3.0 m) of an irrigated corn field sampled every 2 weeks from 2016 to 2020 in the southern Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. Distinct periods of high nitrate concentrations with lower δ 15 N–NO 3 − values indicated that a portion of that nitrate was from recent fertilizer applications. We used a mixing model to quantify nitrate fluxes associated with recently added fertilizer N versus older, legacy soil N during these “fertilizer signal periods.” Nitrate leached below 3.0 m in these periods made up a larger proportion of the total N leached at that depth (∼52%) versus the two shallower depths (∼13%–16%), indicating preferential movement of recently applied fertilizer N through the deep soil into groundwater. Further, N associated with recent fertilizer additions leached more easily when compared to remobilized legacy N. A high volume of fall and winter precipitation may push residual fertilizer N to depth, potentially posing a larger threat to groundwater than legacy N. Optimizing fertilizer N additions could minimize fertilizer losses and reduce nitrate leaching to groundwater.

Agriculture↗

The impact of sampling scale: A comparison of methods for estimating external contaminant exposure in free-ranging wildlife

The impacts of contaminants on wildlife are dose dependent, and thus being able to track or predict exposure following contamination events is important for monitoring ecosystem health. However, the ability to track exposure in free-ranging wildlife is often severely limited. Consequently, researchers have predominantly relied on simple methods for estimating contaminant exposures in wildlife with little regard for spatial contaminant heterogeneity or an animal’s use of diverse habitats. We evaluated the influence sampling scale (i.e., how finely contaminant distribution and organism’s spatial use of the landscape is mapped) has on (1) realism and (2) conservativeness of exposure estimates. To do this, we monitored the actual exposure of wild boar (Sus scrofa) in Fukushima, Japan to radioactive contamination using GPS27 coupled contaminant monitors placed on individual animals. We compared empirical exposures to estimates generated by combining varying amounts of information about an individual boar’s location and/or movement, with the distribution of contamination on the landscape. Here we found that the most realistic exposure estimates were produced when finer-scale contaminant distribution surveys (e.g., airborne surveys) were combined with more accurate estimates of an individual’s space use (e.g., home ranges or core areas). Importantly, estimates of exposure based on single point surveys at a trap site (a simple method commonly used in the literature), did not correlate with actual exposure rates, suggesting dose-effects studies using this method may result in spurious conclusions. These results suggest that researchers seeking realistic estimates of exposure, such as in dose-effect studies, should ensure they have adequately accounted for fine-scale contaminant distribution patterns and areas of higher use by study organisms. However, conservative estimates of exposure i.e., intentionally over-predicting exposure as is done in initial tiers of ecological risk analyses) were not as scale sensitive and could be achieved with a single known location and coarse contaminant distribution maps.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Cardiovascular responses of snakes to hypergravity

Snakes have provided useful vertebrate models for understanding circulatory adaptation to gravity, attributable to their elongate body shape and evolutionary diversificaton in terms of ecology and behavior. Recently we have studied cardiovascular responses of snakes to hypergravic acceleration forces produced acutely in the head-to-tail direction (+Gz) on a short-arm centrifuge. Snakes were held in a nearly straight position within a horizontal plastic tube and subjected to a linear force gradient during acceleration. Carotid blood flow provided an integrated measure of cardiovascular performance. Thus, cardiovascular tolerance of snakes to stepwise increments of Gz was measured as the caudal Gz force at which carotid blood flow ceased. Tolerance to increasing Gz varies according to adaptive evolutionary history inferred from the ecology and behavior of species. With respect to data for six species we investigated, multiple regression analysis demonstrates that Gz tolerance correlates with gravitational habitat, independently of body length. Relative to aquatic and non-climbing species, carotid blood flow is better maintained in arboreal or scansorial species, which tolerate hypergravic forces of +2 to +3.5 Gz. Additionally, semi-arboreal rat snakes (Elaphe obsoleta) exhibit plasticity of responses to long-term, intermittent +1.5 Gz stress. Compared to non-acclimated controls, acclimated snakes show greater increases of heart rate during head-up tilt or acceleration, greater sensitivity of arterial pressure to circulating catecholamines, higher blood levels of prostaglandin ratios favorable to maintenance of arterial blood pressure, and medial hypertrophy in major arteries and veins. As in other vertebrates, Gz tolerance of snakes is enhanced by acclimation, high arterial pressure, comparatively large blood volume, and body movements. Vascular studies of snakes suggest the importance to acclimation of local responses involving vascular tissue, in addition to centrally mediated responses to fluid shifts.

Review, Tutorial↗

The macroevolution of filamentation morphology across the Saccharomycotina yeast subphylum

Saccharomycotina is a subphylum of ascomycete fungi with diverse asexual growth morphologies. Filamentous growth can comprise linear and branched budding cells that do not undergo cell separation, termed pseudohyphae, or tubular filaments with septa that perforate allowing movement of organelles, termed true hyphae. We integrated phenotypic, genomic, metabolic, and environmental data on isolation sources from 1051 species to examine the variation and evolutionary history of filamentation across Saccharomycotina and determine whether these data could predict filamentation types. We found that 63.37% of strains can form filaments; 6.56% true hyphae, 42.40% pseudohyphae, and 14.39% both true hyphae and pseudohyphae. The distributions of species that can produce true hyphae or filament were more strongly correlated with the yeast phylogeny than the distribution of species with pseudohyphae. Ancestral state reconstruction suggested that true hyphal and pseudohyphal morphologies evolved several times, that most yeast ancestors likely produced pseudohyphae or lacked filaments, and that the Saccharomycotina last common ancestor likely produced pseudohyphae but not true hyphae. Machine learning models trained on genomic and metabolic features predicted filament morphologies with ∼70% accuracy. Connecting the evolution of morphologies to their genomic, physiological, and ecological characteristics will enrich our understanding of how the diversity of lifestyles evolved in Saccharomycotina.

Saccharomycotina↗

Directionally supervised cellular automaton for the initial peopling of Sahul

Reconstructing the patterns of Homo sapiens expansion out of Africa and across the globe has been advanced using demographic and travel-cost models. However, modelled routes are ipso facto influenced by migration rates, and vice versa. We combined movement ‘superhighways’ with a demographic cellular automaton to predict one of the world's earliest peopling events — Sahul between 75000 and 50000 years ago. Novel outcomes from the superhighways-weighted model include (i) an approximate doubling of the predicted time to continental saturation (~10,000 years) compared to that based on the directionally unsupervised model (~5000 years), suggesting that rates of migration need to account for topographical constraints in addition to rate of saturation; (ii) a previously undetected movement corridor south through the centre of Sahul early in the expansion wave based on the scenarios assuming two dominant entry points into Sahul; and (iii) a better fit to the spatially de-biased, Signor-Lipps-corrected layer of initial arrival inferred from dated archaeological material. Our combined model infrastructure provides a data-driven means to examine how people initially moved through, settled, and abandoned different regions of the globe.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Characterizing the Defense Hierarchy of Populus trichocarpa

The U.S. Departments of Energy and Agriculture are developing bioenergy crops as a sustainable alternative to traditional fossil fuels. Plant disease threatens this effort by inhibiting the efficient production of plant feedstocks for bioenergy. In particular, biotrophic Melampsora leaf rust pathogens can increase morbidity in Populus trichocarpa and its hybrids (aka poplars), the primary woody feedstocks for bioenergy. Controlling rust disease in plantations is thus critical to the success of the poplar bioenergy program. Current efforts to control rust disease focus on plant genetic resistance. However, with novel pathogenic variation generated by the global movement of pathogens and their hybridization, it is increasingly clear that controlling rust disease in a long-lived plant like Populus depends on our ability to understand and manage not only genes for rust resistance, but also short-lived plant microorganisms that contribute to defense against rust (aka “defense mutualists”). Our proposed research thus seeks to develop an integrative, hierarchical model of P. trichocarpa defense that integrates genetic resistance and defense mutualists. Our overarching hypothesis is that defense against Melampsora rust is biologically degenerate, with major and minor plant resistance genes, plant defense compounds, and defense mutualists within the microbiome each contributing to rust resistance under different circumstances. The specific aims of our study will test the placement of each of these factors in the defense hierarchy. Ultimately, it is our hope that disease management strategies harnessing both resistance genes and naturally occurring defense mutualists of P. trichocarpa, and an appreciation of the ecological circumstances in which each is effective, will maximize plant resistance and productivity while minimizing impacts on the surrounding ecological landscape.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of head-starting on multi-year space use and survival of an at-risk tortoise

A major challenge in the recovery of long-lived at-risk taxa like turtles is low juvenile recruitment. Head-starting—the raising of juveniles to larger sizes to improve survival—is one tool that can be used in circumstances where juvenile recruitment is limited. Due to declining populations and difficulty detecting juveniles, however, lack of knowledge of the ecology of juveniles can hinder efforts to develop and evaluate head-starting programs for many turtle species. We sought to inform recovery efforts of Mojave desert tortoises by quantifying multi-year space use and survival of head-started juveniles after release. We radio-tracked tortoises head-started under three different husbandry treatments that varied in rearing duration (from two to over six years) and whether head-starting included an indoor rearing component the first year. We compared postrelease space use and survival as a function of treatment, release size, and time since release. We found that space use, including home range size and site fidelity, varied by husbandry treatment, with smaller and younger tortoises having smaller home ranges and higher site fidelity. Additionally, home range size decreased and site fidelity increased with time since release across treatments. Tortoises with an indoor-rearing component experiencing increased risk of mortality as movement increased compared to tortoises reared solely outdoors. Nevertheless, survival did not differ among treatments or with tortoise age or size. Regardless of husbandry treatment, head-started tortoises exhibited similar space-use and survival overall. Our study provides insight into juvenile tortoise behavior and head-starting as a tool for tortoise conservation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Southern Bhutan Ecological Forecasting III: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Model Land Cover Change and Elephant Wildlife Corridors in Southern Bhutan

Habitat loss of the endangered Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) accompanied by rapid urbanization has contributed to the rising human-elephant conflict (HEC) crisis in southern Bhutan. This poses a serious threat to the survival of Asian elephants, a keystone wildlife species essential for maintaining Bhutan’s forest ecosystems and rich biodiversity. With expanding urban areas, HECs present challenges to conservation efforts in the region. The team partnered with the Bhutan Foundation, the Bhutan Tiger Center, and Bhutan Ecological Society to help mitigate this issue using remote sensing technology and NASA Earth observations. The team refined Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) maps for 2010–2019 generated in previous terms and elephant corridor maps to include information on human settlements using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data. We generated LULC change maps and forecasted the LULC to 2030 using TerrSet Land Change Modeler, providing insights into future elephant habitat suitability in southern Bhutan. The results indicated that built-up areas increased approximately 688.9% from 2010 to 2019 and the forecasted 2030 LULC also predicted an increase in built-up areas compared to 2019. Suitable corridors in Gelephu intersect cultivated and built-up areas, indicating close proximity of elephants to humans and a need to research alternative corridor strategies. The end products from this project will aid partner organizations in decision-making processes in urban planning and future conservation strategies that include the refined placement of biological corridors to aid elephant movement and reduce the risk of HECs.

Thinley Yidzin Wangden↗

Dominant Controls on Preferential Flow and Their Implications for Future Soil Water Fluxes

Abstract Soil water flow, particularly preferential flow (PF), is a critical control on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, including groundwater recharge, contaminant transport, and carbon cycling. However, it remains challenging to predict PF occurrence across large environmental gradients. Here, we developed a deep learning (DL) model to estimate event‐scale soil water flow velocity and the probability of PF occurrence using high‐frequency soil moisture and precipitation data from 33 sites across the National Ecological Observatory Network. The model demonstrated high skill in predicting the binary occurrence of PF (91% F1‐score; 85% accuracy) but the performance was limited in predicting soil water velocity ( R 2 = 0.31). We found that precipitation characteristics (duration, volume, and intensity) were the most important predictors for soil water velocity. Among the non‐precipitation event variables, sand content showed relatively high predictive skill, though differences among non‐event climate variables were generally modest. Lower sand content was associated with increased predicted soil water velocity, a finding that highlights the role of soil structure in producing more non‐uniform flow, which contrasts with traditional uniform flow models. Projecting a reduced DL model under both moderate and high‐emissions future climate scenarios (2060–2099 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), we found ∼7.3% increase under RCP4.5 and ∼15% under RCP8.5 of soil water velocities compared to the historical simulation, while modeled likelihood of PF changed little. These findings suggest climate change is not making PF more frequent, but it is making existing PF pathways more efficient with important consequences for associated nutrient and contaminant transport under climate change. Plain Language Summary Water movement in soil is critical for water quality. While often modeled as a uniform flow process, in reality water moves rapidly through cracks and burrows in what is called “preferential flow” (PF), which limits natural filtration and can transport pollutants. We developed a deep learning model, trained on data from 33 U.S. sites, to predict when and how fast this PF occurs based on precipitation, soil, and climate data. The model showed that precipitation characteristics (duration, intensity, volume) were the most important predictors of PF. Lower soil sand content/higher clay content was associated with faster water flow, likely due to clay soils forming aggregates and cracks that water moves through rather than infiltrating uniformly. Further analyses based on climate projections suggest that the speed at which PF occurs will become more rapid under future climate scenarios compared to historical simulation. This highlights the need to represent PF in soil water models when assessing future water quality. Key Points The effect of precipitation peak intensity on soil water velocities declined with increasing precipitation intensity Antecedent soil moisture failed to predict preferential flow (PF), contrasting the high predictive power of sand content Climate predictions suggest that soil water velocities through PF paths will increase ∼15% by 2099

Li, Bonan↗

Brownian bridge-based speed imputation technique for truck energy consumption and emissions estimation

The available truck Global Positioning System (GPS) data, typically collected with large time gaps, rely on imputation techniques to obtain second-by-second data that are required in models for estimating truck energy consumption and emissions. However, existing speed imputation techniques either require a large amount of high-resolution data for model training or rely on special movement assumptions. Here, to fill the gap and effectively apply the low-resolution truck GPS datasets, this paper proposes a simple imputation technique that adopts the Brownian bridge structure to impute missing speed data. The proposed technique introduces a feasible imputation region and a combined drift into the imputation procedure to capture vehicle acceleration constraint, travel distance constraint, and speed volatility. The calibrated model is applied to a set of low-resolution truck GPS data. The results demonstrate the robustness of the proposed technique in enhancing estimation accuracy when using low-resolution GPS data to estimate fuel consumption and emissions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Field Portable Hyperspectral Goniometer for Coastal Characterization

During an airborne multi-sensor remote sensing experiment at the Virginia Coast Reserve (VCR) Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site in June 2011 (VCR '11), first measurements were taken with the new NRL Goniometer for Outdoor Portable Hyperspectral Earth Reflectance (GOPHER). GOPHER measures the angular distribution of hyperspectral reflectance. GOPHER was constructed for NRL by Spectra Vista Corporation (SVC) and the University of Lethbridge through a capital equipment purchase in 2010. The GOPHER spectrometer is an SVC HR -1024, which measures hyperspectral reflectance over the range from 350 -2500 nm, the visible, near infrared, and short-wave infrared. During measurements, the spectrometer travels along a zenith quarter -arc track that can rotate in azimuth, allowing for measurement of the bi-directional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) over the whole hemisphere. The zenith arc has a radius of approximately 2m, and the spectrometer scan pattern can be programmed on the fly during calibration and validation efforts. The spectrometer and zenith arc assembly can be raised and lowered along a mast to allow for measurement of uneven terrain or vegetation canopies of moderate height. Hydraulics on the chassis allow for leveling of the instrument in the field. At just over 400 lbs, GOPHER is a field portable instrument and can be transformed into a compact trailer assembly for movement over long distances in the field.

Bachmann, Charles M.↗

Melanization slows the rapid movement of fungal necromass carbon and nitrogen into both bacterial and fungal decomposer communities and soils

Microbial necromass contributes significantly to both soil carbon (C) persistence and ecosystem nitrogen (N) availability, but quantitative estimates of C and N movement from necromass into soils and decomposer communities are lacking. Additionally, while melanin is known to slow fungal necromass decomposition, how it influences microbial C and N acquisition as well as elemental release into soils remains unclear. Here, we tracked decomposition of isotopically labeled low and high melanin fungal necromass and measured 13 C and 15 N accumulation in surrounding soils and microbial communities over 77 d in a temperate forest in Minnesota, USA. Mass loss was significantly higher from low melanin necromass, corresponding with greater 13 C and 15 N soil inputs. A taxonomically and functionally diverse array of bacteria and fungi was enriched in 13 C and/or 15 N at all sampling points, with enrichment being consistently higher on low melanin necromass and earlier in decomposition. Similar patterns of preferential C and N enrichment of many bacterial and fungal genera early in decomposition suggest that both microbial groups co-contribute to the rapid assimilation of resource-rich soil organic matter inputs. While overall richness of taxa enriched in C was higher than in N for both bacteria and fungi, there was a significant positive relationship between C and N in co-enriched taxa. Collectively, our results demonstrate that melanization acts as a key ecological trait mediating not only fungal necromass decomposition rate but also necromass C and N release and that both elements are rapidly co-utilized by diverse bacterial and fungal decomposers in natural settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing individual movement, habitat use, and behavior of non-breeding marine birds in relation to prey availability in the US Atlantic

Resource availability is a key factor driving marine bird movements and distributions, but direct information on prey availability is difficult to obtain at relevant scales. We present novel methods for describing multi-scale trophic associations, combining movement analyses of marine birds with estimates of forage fish surface aggregations from digital aerial survey data and species occupancy from bottom trawl survey data. We analyzed satellite telemetry data from northern gannets Morus bassanus , red-throated loons Gavia stellata , and long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis in the US Atlantic during the non-breeding period. Using discrete-time hidden Markov models to distinguish area-restricted (i.e. putative foraging) from transit movements, we examined how environmental factors influence movement, and how forage fish species distributions and surface aggregations influence habitat use by gannets and loons that have greater dietary reliance. Our results suggest that chlorophyll a concentration significantly affected movement behavior across species, highlighting the importance of higher-productivity areas around estuaries during colder months when regional productivity is low. Though variable across species and seasons, spatial cross-correlation analysis revealed that herring species (Family Clupeidae), including Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus , may be important resources; it also showed positive spatial correlations with forage fish aggregations. This suggests that prey patch dynamics and factors driving aggregation formation may be as important as species composition. However, spatial patterns were generally low (<0.3), suggesting a mismatch in spatiotemporal resolution, exemplifying the challenges in quantifying trophic relationships in marine systems. Disentangling predator-prey relationships is critical to understanding the mechanisms driving marine bird behavior in rapidly changing marine systems.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Seawater Acidification and Bubble Plume Dispersion from Accidental Subsea CO 2 Pipeline Rupture: A Multiphase CFD Study

If a CO 2 reservoir or transmission pipeline were to leak, both the surrounding ecology and maritime traffic safety could be put at risk. To better understand and prepare for this risk, multiphase Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models were built in ANSYS Fluent to capture the behavior of a leak once it enters the water. A 3D Eulerian–Eulerian model was used for validation, while a simplified 2D model was applied to simulate conditions at a 50-m depth. The models integrate bubble dynamics, gas holdup, CO 2 dissolution, dissolved species transport, and seawater acidification into a unified CFD framework. Mass transfer was calculated using the Hughmark correlation, and local seawater temperature and salinity were factored in to determine dissociation behavior and the relevant Henry’s Law constant. To confirm the 3D model’s accuracy, results were checked against two experimental datasets: the QICS field study and the Hauser Tank experiments. The team also modeled a hypothetical release scenario at the High Island 10L site and compared the results with earlier published work. The results show that at a depth of 50 m, the surrounding water column can completely absorb a CO 2 release at a rate of 35 kg/s, since the gas dissolves into the seawater as it rises toward the surface. Beyond confirming this mitigation capacity, the simulations shed light on how a leak would actually unfold in the environment, including the shape and movement of the rising bubble plume, how much CO 2 dissolves along the way, and the resulting shifts in seawater pH and pCO 2 . Together, this provides a practical framework for assessing how CO 2 leaks could affect marine environments in the Gulf of Mexico.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reciprocal transplants reveal asymmetric local adaptation of Himalayan Rhododendron approaching elevational range limit

Abstract As plant species expand their upper limits of distribution under current warming, some retain both traditional climate space and biotic environment while others encounter novel conditions. The latter is the case for Rhododendron campanulatum , a woody shrub that grows both above and below treeline at our study site in the Eastern Himalayas where a very conspicuous, stable treeline was defined by a nearly contiguous canopy of tall Abies spectabilis trees, many of which are over a century old. Prior work showed that treeline had remained static in this region while R. campanulatum expanded its elevational range limit. We tested local adaptation of R. campanulatum by performing reciprocal transplants between the species' current elevational range limit (4023 m above sea level [asl]) and just above treeline (3876 m asl). Contrary to expectation, the coldest temperatures of late winter and early mid‐spring were experienced by plants at the lower elevation: R. campanulatum at species' limit (upper site) were covered by snow for a longer period (40 more days) and escaped the coldest temperatures suffered by conspecifics at treeline (lower site). The harsher spring conditions at treeline likely explain why leaves were smaller at treeline (15.3 cm 2 ) than at species limit (21.3 cm 2 ). Contrary to results from equivalent studies in other regions, survival was reduced more by downslope than by upslope movement, again potentially due to extreme cold temperatures observed at treeline in spring. Upslope transplantation had no effect on mortality, but mortality of species limit saplings transplanted downslope was three times higher than that of residents at both sites. A general expectation is that locals should survive better than foreign transplants, but survival of locals and immigrants at our species limit site was identical. However, those species limit saplings that survived the transplant to treeline grew faster than both locals at treeline and the transplants at species limit. Overall, we found asymmetric adaptation: Compared with treeline saplings, those at species limit (147 m above treeline) were more tolerant of extremes in the growing season but less tolerant of extremes in winter and early mid‐spring, displaying local adaptation in a more complex manner than simply home advantage, and complicating predictions about impacts of future regional climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Progress Towards a Predictive Eagle Behavior and Risk Modeling Framework: Overview and Recent Validation Efforts

This presentation summarizes progress to date of the U.S. Department of Energy project, "Development of a computational framework for modeling golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) near wind farms," which focuses on stochastic behavioral modeling of soaring raptors across landscape, facility, and turbine spatiotemporal scales. This publicly available, open-source modeling framework includes behavioral models based on three different underlying principles: energy minimization at landscape scale, behavioral heuristics at landscape-facility scale, and data-driven behaviors at the facility-micro-scale. We will briefly overview the key advancements in the behavioral modeling state of the art, which leverages multiple high-resolution telemetry data sources combined with high-fidelity atmospheric flow modeling insights. We then present preliminary results from a validation study in Altamont, California. This new study involves a novel application of the Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator (SSRS), in a new geographic locale, to understand facility scale eagle movement patterns over time scales representative of a wind project's lifetime. For this desktop analysis (that does not depend on any high-performance computing resources), SSRS simultaneously considers a variety of wind conditions and eagle approach vectors toward a project site of interest. This work demonstrates the integration of publicly available landscape-scale atmospheric datasets, our recently improved engineering updraft models (see presentation from Thedin et al.), and our energy minimization behavioral models within the SSRS framework. While we only present results from a single behavioral model, the integration of these three modeling components forms the foundation for our more sophisticated behavioral models (see presentations from Brandes et al., Sandhu et al.) that are under active development. Results are presented in the form of presence maps, which may be applied to estimate risk to wildlife, augment ground survey data, inform wind-plant operations, or incorporated into wind-plant designs.

agent-based modeling↗