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DOE OSTI2016

Lamost observations in the Kepler field. Analysis of the stellar parameters measured with LASP based on low-resolution spectra

All 14 subfields of the Kepler field were observed at least once with the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (lamost, Xinglong Observatory, China) during the 2012–2014 observation seasons. There are 88,628 reduced spectra with a signal-to-noise ratio in the g band (S/N{sub g}) ≥ 6 after the first round (2012–2014) of observations of the lamost– Kepler project (LK-project). By adopting the upgraded version of the lamost Stellar Parameter pipeline (lasp), we have determined the atmospheric parameters (T{sub eff}, logg, and [Fe/H]) and heliocentric radial velocity v {sub rad} for 51,406 stars with 61,226 spectra. Compared with the atmospheric parameters derived from both high-resolution spectroscopy and asteroseismology for common stars in Huber et al., an external calibration of lasp atmospheric parameters was made, leading to the determination of the external errors for giants and dwarfs. Multiple spectroscopic observations of the same objects in the LK-project were used to estimate the internal uncertainties of the atmospheric parameters as a function of S/N{sub g} with the unbiased estimation method. The lasp atmospheric parameters were calibrated based on both the external and internal uncertainties for the giants and dwarfs. A general statistical analysis of the stellar parameters leads to the discovery of 106 candidate metal-poor stars, 9 candidate very metal-poor stars, and 18 candidate high-velocity stars. Fitting formulae were obtained segmentally for both the calibrated atmospheric parameters of the LK-project and the Kepler Input Catalog (KIC) parameters with common stars. The calibrated atmospheric parameters and radial velocities of the LK-project will be useful for studying stars in the Kepler field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Future Vision for Autonomous Ocean Observations

Autonomous platforms already make observations over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, measuring salinity, temperature, nitrate, pressure, oxygen, biomass; and many other parameters. However, the observations are not comprehensive. Future autonomous systems need to be more affordable, more modular, more capable and easier to operate. Creative new types of platforms and new compact, low power, calibrated and stable sensors are under development to expand autonomous observations. Communications and recharging need bandwidth and power which can be supplied by standardized docking stations. In situ power generation will also extend endurance for many types of autonomous platforms, particularly autonomous surface vehicles. Standardized communications will improve ease of use, interoperability, and enable coordinated behaviors. Improved autonomy and communications will enable adaptive networks of autonomous platforms. Improvements in autonomy will have three aspects: hardware, control, and operations. As sensors and platforms have more onboard processing capability and energy capacity, more measurements become possible. Control systems and software will have the capability to address more complex states and sophisticated reactions to sensor inputs, which allows the platform to handle a wider variety of circumstances without direct operator control. Operational autonomy is increased by reducing operating costs. To maximize the potential of autonomous observations new standards and best practices are needed. In some applications, focus on common platforms and volume purchases could lead to significant cost reductions. Cost reductions could enable order-of-magnitude increases in platform operations and increase sampling resolution for a given level of investment. Energy harvesting technologies should be integral to the system design, for sensors, platforms, vehicles, and docking stations. Connections are needed between the marine energy and ocean observing communities to coordinate among funding sources, researchers, and end users. Regional teams should work with global organizations such as IOC/GOOS in governance development. International networks such as EGO for the emerging glider operations should also provide a forum for addressing governance. Networks of multiple vehicles can improve operational efficiencies and transform operational patterns. There is a need to develop operational architectures at regional and global scales to provide a backbone for active networking of autonomous platforms.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Navigating the Noise: Bringing Clarity to ML Parameterization Design With O $\boldsymbol{\mathcal{O}}$(100) Ensembles

Abstract Machine‐learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high‐resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation. However, uncertainty about the relationship between offline and online performance (i.e., when integrated with a large‐scale general circulation model) hinders their development. Much of this uncertainty stems from limited sampling of the noisy, emergent effects of upstream ML design decisions on downstream online hybrid simulation. Our work rectifies the sampling issue via the construction of a semi‐automated, end‐to‐end pipeline for size ensembles of hybrid simulations, revealing important nuances in how systematic reductions in offline error manifest in changes to online error and online stability. For example, removing dropout and switching from a Mean Squared Error to a Mean Absolute Error loss both reduce offline error, but they have opposite effects on online error and online stability. Other design decisions, like incorporating memory, converting moisture input from specific humidity to relative humidity, using batch normalization, and training on multiple climates do not come with any such compromises. Finally, we show that ensemble sizes of may be necessary to reliably detect causally relevant differences online. By enabling rapid online experimentation at scale, we can empirically settle debates regarding subgrid ML parameterization design that would have otherwise remained unresolved in the noise.

Lin, Jerry [Department of Earth System Sciences Un↗

DOE OSTI2021

A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making

West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m–km, days–weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Arbitrary-ratio power splitter based on nonlinear multimode interference coupler

We propose an ultra-compact multimode interference (MMI) power splitter based on nonlinear effects from simulations using nonlinear modal propagation analysis (NMPA) cooperation with finite difference Method (FDM) to access free choice of splitting ratio. Conventional multimode interference power splitter could only obtain a few discrete ratios. The power splitting ratio may be adjusted continuously while the input set power is varying by a tunable laser. In fact, using an ultra- compact MMI with a simple structure that is launched by a tunable nonlinear input fulfills the problem of arbitrary-ratio in integrated photonics circuits. Silicon on insulator (SOI) is used as the offered material due to the high contrast refractive index and Centro symmetric properties. The high-resolution images at the end of the multimode waveguide in the simulated power splitter have a high power balance, whereas access to a free choice of splitting ratio is not possible under the linear regime in the proposed length range except changes in the dimension for any ratio. The compact dimensions and ideal performance of the device are established according to optimized parameters. The proposed regime can be extended to the design of M×N arbitrary power splitters ratio for programmable logic devices in all optical digital signal processing. The results of this study indicate that nonlinear modal propagation analysis solves the miniaturization problem for all-optical devices based on MMI couplers to achieve multiple functions in a compact planar integrated circuit and also overcomes the limitations of previously proposed methods for nonlinear MMI.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian inference of electron density and ion temperature profiles from neutral beam and halo Balmer- α emission at Wendelstein 7-X

By employing Bayesian inference techniques, the full electron density profile from the plasma core to the edge of Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) is inferred solely from neutral hydrogen beam and halo Balmer- α (H α ) emission data. The halo is a cloud of neutrals forming in the vicinity of the injected neutral beam due to multiple charge exchange reactions. W7-X is equipped with several neutral hydrogen beam heating sources and an H α spectroscopy system that views these sources from different angles and penetration depths in the plasma. As the beam and halo emission form complex spectra for each spatial point that are non-linearly dependent on the plasma density profile and other parameters, a complete model from the neutral beam injection and halo formation through to the spectroscopic measurements is required. The model is used here to infer electron density profiles for a range of common W7-X plasma scenarios. The inferred profiles show good agreement with profiles determined by the Thomson scattering and interferometry diagnostics across a broad range of absolute densities without any changes to the input or fitting parameters. The time evolution of the density profile in a discharge with continuous core density peaking is successfully reconstructed, demonstrating sufficient spatial resolution to infer strongly shaped profiles. Furthermore, it is shown as a proof of concept that the model is also able to infer the main ion temperature profile using the same data set.

forward modeling↗

DOE OSTI2024

STSR-INR: Spatiotemporal super-resolution for multivariate time-varying volumetric data via implicit neural representation

Implicit neural representation (INR) has surfaced as a promising direction for solving different scientific visualization tasks due to its continuous representation and flexible input and output settings. We present STSR-INR, an INR solution for generating simultaneous spatiotemporal super-resolution for multivariate time-varying volumetric data. Inheriting the benefits of the INR-based approach, STSR-INR supports unsupervised learning and permits data upscaling with arbitrary spatial and temporal scale factors. Unlike existing GAN- or INR-based super-resolution methods, STSR-INR focuses on tackling variables or ensembles and enabling joint training across datasets of various spatiotemporal resolutions. Here we achieve this capability via a variable embedding scheme that learns latent vectors for different variables. In conjunction with a modulated structure in the network design, we employ a variational auto-decoder to optimize the learnable latent vectors to enable latent-space interpolation. To combat the slow training of INR, we leverage a multi-head strategy to improve training and inference speed with significant speedup. We demonstrate the effectiveness of STSR-INR with multiple scalar field datasets and compare it with conventional tricubic+linear interpolation and state-of-the-art deep-learning-based solutions (STNet and CoordNet).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the numerical sensitivity of cellular automata grain structure predictions to large thermal gradients and cooling rates

Cellular automata (CA) models of as-solidified grain structure, originally developed and applied to casting, have become a common means of predicting grain structure resulting from Additive Manufacturing (AM) processes. The majority of these models are based on the decentered octahedron approach, which attempts to correct for the effect of grid anisotropy on the prediction of competitive solidification of dendritic grains. However, AM solidification occurs under cooling rates ($\dot{T}$) and thermal gradients (G) that are orders of magnitude larger than those encountered in casting, and no systematic investigation on the effect of the CA model cell size (Δx) and time step (Δt) on AM microstructure predictions has been performed. Here, in this study, such an investigation is first performed via simulation of individual grains of various crystallographic orientations with a fixed, unidirectional G, showing that CA prediction of the steady-state undercooling matched the expected values based on the interfacial response function at small G and deviated from the expected values at large G. Simulation of competitive growth of multiple grains showed a weakening of the predicted texture as G and Δx became large. Simulation of solidification under AM conditions, where G and $\dot{T}$ vary spatially across the melt pools, showed that not only does grain selection weaken and deviate from expectations at large Δx, but grains with crystallographic $\langle$100$\rangle$ aligned with the grid directions are more adversely affected by the temperature field discontinuities than grains with other crystallographic orientations. Despite the fact that the exact grain competition results depended on Δt, the overall texture development was notably less sensitive to Δt than Δx, provided that a reasonable value of Δt is selected based on the ratio of Δx to the maximum local solidification velocity in the simulation domain. Finally, from the directional solidification and AM simulation results, an analysis of computational cost compared to simulation resolution is performed based on an equation derived to quantify the relatively inaccuracy in grain selection based on the model and temperature field inputs. From this analysis, it is concluded that there is a need for algorithmic improvements to improve CA grain competition accuracy for large G processing conditions as sufficiently small Δx to resolve the necessary competition is intractable for many AM processing conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Modeling the Spatio-Temporal Variability in Subsurface Thermal Regimes Across a Low-Relief Polygonal Tundra Landscape: Modeling Archive

Vast carbon stocks stored in permafrost soils of Arctic tundra are under risk of release to atmosphere under warming climate. Ice--wedge polygons in the low-gradient polygonal tundra create a complex mosaic of microtopographic features. The microtopography plays a critical role in regulating the fine scale variability in thermal and hydrological regimes in the polygonal tundra landscape underlain by continuous permafrost. Modeling of thermal regimes of this sensitive ecosystem is essential for understanding the landscape behaviour under current as well as changing climate. We present here an end-to-end effort for high resolution numerical modeling of thermal hydrology at real-world field sites, utilizing the best available data to characterize and parameterize the models. We develop approaches to model the thermal hydrology of polygonal tundra and apply them at four study sites at Barrow, Alaska spanning across low to transitional to high-centered polygon and representative of broad polygonal tundra landscape. A multi--phase subsurface thermal hydrology model (PFLOTRAN) was developed and applied to study the thermal regimes at four sites. Using high resolution LiDAR DEM, microtopographic features of the landscape were characterized and represented in the high resolution model mesh. Best available soil data from field observations and literature was utilized to represent the complex heterogeneous subsurface in the numerical model. This data collection provides the complete set of input files, forcing data sets and computational meshes for simulations using PFLOTRAN for four sites at Barrow Environmental Observatory. It also documents the complete computational workflow for this modeling study to allow verification, reproducibility and follow up studies. This dataset includes two zipped files and one .pdf file.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

AICCA: AI-Driven Cloud Classification Atlas

Clouds play an important role in the Earth’s energy budget, and their behavior is one of the largest uncertainties in future climate projections. Satellite observations should help in understanding cloud responses, but decades and petabytes of multispectral cloud imagery have to date received only limited use. This study describes a new analysis approach that reduces the dimensionality of satellite cloud observations by grouping them via a novel automated, unsupervised cloud classification technique based on a convolutional autoencoder, an artificial intelligence (AI) method good at identifying patterns in spatial data. Our technique combines a rotation-invariant autoencoder and hierarchical agglomerative clustering to generate cloud clusters that capture meaningful distinctions among cloud textures, using only raw multispectral imagery as input. Cloud classes are therefore defined based on spectral properties and spatial textures without reliance on location, time/season, derived physical properties, or pre-designated class definitions. We use this approach to generate a unique new cloud dataset, the AI-driven cloud classification atlas (AICCA), which clusters 22 years of ocean images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua and Terra instruments—198 million patches, each roughly 100 km × 100 km (128 × 128 pixels)—into 42 AI-generated cloud classes, a number determined via a newly-developed stability protocol that we use to maximize richness of information while ensuring stable groupings of patches. AICCA thereby translates 801 TB of satellite images into 54.2 GB of class labels and cloud top and optical properties, a reduction by a factor of 15,000. The 42 AICCA classes produce meaningful spatio-temporal and physical distinctions and capture a greater variety of cloud types than do the nine International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) categories—for example, multiple textures in the stratocumulus decks along the West coasts of North and South America. We conclude that our methodology has explanatory power, capturing regionally unique cloud classes and providing rich but tractable information for global analysis. AICCA delivers the information from multi-spectral images in a compact form, enables data-driven diagnosis of patterns of cloud organization, provides insight into cloud evolution on timescales of hours to decades, and helps democratize climate research by facilitating access to core data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mass Detection for Heavy-Duty Vehicles using Gaussian Belief Propagation

Predicting vehicle mass is critical to accurately estimate energy use and emissions of commercial trucks. However, data from vehicle telematics is often not at sufficient temporal resolution or accuracy for use in model-based detection methods. In this work, a new statistical mass prediction technique is described for heavy-duty vehicles that incorporates the use Gaussian Belief Propagation (GBP) for probabilistic inference. Similar to Bayesian inference models, the GBP model typically requires less labeled training data than other contemporary machine learning techniques. First, a factor graph is constructed, and a set of Gaussian belief nodes with associated means and variances are fitted to the training data. To better handle noisy input data, the GBP mass prediction model utilizes a k-nearest factors (kNF) algorithm for probabilistic inference on unseen testing data. The proposed method is compared with a classical weighted k-nearest neighbors (kNN) regressor. This statistical kNF-GBP model works even with low-quantity, low-quality initial training data, while being capable of realtime mass estimation. Unlike the kNN regressor, the GBP model produces a measure of uncertainty with its predictions. The proposed method is validated using curve-sampled driving data collected from multiple cloud-connected Class 8 regional haul diesel trucks. Both the kNN regressor and the kNF-GBP mass prediction model were able to predict payload mass with coefficients of determination above 0.97 with minimal data preprocessing.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spectrograph stabilization using a single-delay interferometer on the Hale Telescope

We describe a technique for spectrograph stabilization useful when conventional mitigation techniques of vacuum tanks, thermal insulation, and laser frequency comb may be impractical, expensive, heavy, or bulky. This includes spectrographs on airborne platforms or mounted on telescopes where they suffer a changing gravity vector or other drifts. Placing a fixed-delay interferometer in series with a spectrograph forms an externally dispersed interferometer (EDI). This produces a uniform sinusoidal comb multiplying input spectrum, creating (through heterodyning) beats (moiré patterns). In Fourier space for low frequencies up to the comb frequency, the moiré generated signal counter-rotates to ordinary spectra under an unknown disperser wavenumber drift Δx. This generates a large negative feedback signal useful in a conceptual control loop, to converge rapidly to a stable spectrum and yield Δx. A modified EDI data analysis algorithm (“crossfading”) combines frequency-weighted moiré with conventional spectrum to cancel net output spectrum reaction to Δx. Needing only a single-delay, this is a practical improvement over prior crossfading analyses requiring multiple delays. We test crossfading on ThAr data near 4850 cm−1 taken on Hale telescope in an earlier project. In a single pass, we reduce drift 20 times. Using seven iterations, we reduce 0.5 cm−1 (31 km/s Doppler equivalent) drift to 4×10−7 cm−1 (2.5 cm/s). The interferometer delay can wander, because linearity of phase versus wavenumber interpolates science features between bracketing calibrating spectral references. Second, mathematically reversing the heterodyning effect doubles effective spectral resolution without changing disperser slit.

Erskine, David J [Lawrence Livermore National Labo↗

DOE OSTI2023

Incorporation of aerosol into the COSPv2 satellite lidar simulator for climate model evaluation

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosol has substantial impacts on climate, air quality and biogeochemical cycles, and its concentrations are highly variable in space and time. A key variability to evaluate within models that simulate aerosol is the vertical distribution, which influences atmospheric heating profiles and aerosol–cloud interactions, to help constrain aerosol residence time and to better represent the magnitude of simulated impacts. To ensure a consistent comparison between modeled and observed vertical distribution of aerosol, we implemented an aerosol lidar simulator within the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package version 2 (COSPv2). We assessed the attenuated total backscattered (ATB) signal and the backscatter ratios (SRs) at 532 nm in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). The simulator performs the computations at the same vertical resolution as the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), making use of aerosol optics from the E3SMv1 model as inputs and assuming that aerosol is uniformly distributed horizontally within each model grid box. The simulator applies a cloud masking and an aerosol detection threshold to obtain the ATB and SR profiles that would be observed above clouds by CALIOP with its aerosol detection capability. Our analysis shows that the aerosol distribution simulated at a seasonal timescale is generally in good agreement with observations. Over the Southern Ocean, however, the model does not produce the SR maximum as observed in the real world. Comparison between clear-sky and all-sky SRs shows little differences, indicating that the cloud screening by potentially incorrect model clouds does not affect the mean aerosol signal averaged over a season. This indicates that the differences between observed and simulated SR values are due not to sampling errors, but to deficiencies in the representation of aerosol in models. Finally, we highlight the need for future applications of lidar observations at multiple wavelengths to provide insights into aerosol properties and distribution and their representation in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Best estimate of the planetary boundary layer height from multiple remote sensing measurements

Remote sensing measurements have been widely used to estimate the planetary boundary layer height (PBLHT). Each remote sensing approach offers unique strengths and faces different limitations. In this study, we use machine learning (ML) methods to produce a best-estimate PBLHT (PBLHT-BE-ML) by integrating four PBLHT estimates derived from remote sensing measurements at the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory. Three ML models – random forest (RF) classifier, RF regressor, and light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM) – were trained on a dataset from 2017 to 2023 that included radiosonde, various remote sensing PBLHT estimates, and atmospheric meteorological conditions. Evaluations indicated that PBLHT-BE-ML from all three models improved alignment with the PBLHT derived from radiosonde data (PBLHT-SONDE), with LightGBM demonstrating the highest accuracy under both stable and unstable boundary layer conditions. Feature analysis revealed that the most influential input features at the SGP site were the PBLHT estimates derived from (a) potential temperature profiles retrieved using Raman lidar (RL) and atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) measurements (PBLHT-THERMO), (b) vertical velocity variance profiles from Doppler lidar (PBLHT-DL), and (c) aerosol backscatter profiles from micropulse lidar (PBLHT-MPL). The trained models were then used to predict PBLHT-BE-ML at a temporal resolution of 10 min, effectively capturing the diurnal evolution of PBLHT and its significant seasonal variations, with the largest diurnal variation observed over summer at the SGP site. We applied these trained models to data from the ARM Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) field campaign (EPC), where the PBLHT-BE-ML, particularly with the LightGBM model, demonstrated improved accuracy against PBLHT-SONDE. Analyses of model performance at both the SGP and EPC sites suggest that expanding the training dataset to include various surface types, such as ocean and ice-covered areas, could further enhance ML model performance for PBLHT estimation across varied geographic regions.

Zhang, Damao [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2017

Upscaling instantaneous to daily evapotranspiration using modelled daily shortwave radiation for remote sensing applications: An artificial neural network approach

Upscaling instantaneous evapotranspiration retrieved at any specific time-of-day (ET i ) to daily evapotranspiration (ET d ) is a key challenge in mapping regional ET using polar orbiting sensors. Various studies have unanimously cited the shortwave incoming radiation ( R S ) to be the most robust reference variable explaining the ratio between ET d and ET i . This study aims to contribute in ET i upscaling for global studies using the ratio between daily and instantaneous incoming shortwave radiation ( R Sd / R Si ) as a factor for converting ET i to ET d . This paper proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) machine-learning algorithm first to predict R Sd from R Si followed by using the R Sd / R Si ratio to convert ET i to ET d across different terrestrial ecosystems. Using R Si and R Sd observations from multiple sub-networks of the FLUXNET database spread across different climates and biomes (to represent inputs that would typically be obtainable from remote sensors during the overpass time) in conjunction with some astronomical variables (e.g. solar zenith angle, day length, exoatmospheric shortwave radiation), we developed the ANN model for reproducing R Sd and further used it to upscale ET i to ET d . The efficiency of the ANN is evaluated for different morning and afternoon times of day, under varying sky conditions, and also at different geographic locations. R S -based upscaled ET d produced a significant linear relation ( R 2 = 0.65 to 0.69), low bias (-0.31 to -0.56 MJ m -2 d -1 ; approx. 4 %), and good agreement (RMSE 1.55 to 1.86 MJ m -2 d -1 ; approx. 10 %) with the observed ET d , although a systematic overestimation of ET d was also noted under persistent cloudy sky conditions. Inclusion of soil moisture and rainfall information in ANN training reduced the systematic overestimation tendency in predominantly overcast days. An intercomparison with existing upscaling method at daily, 8-day, monthly, and yearly temporal resolution revealed a robust performance of the ANN-driven R S -based ET i upscaling method and was found to produce lowest RMSE under cloudy conditions. Sensitivity analysis revealed variable sensitivity of the method to biome selection and high ET d prediction errors in forest ecosystems are primarily associated with greater rainfall and cloudiness. As a result, the overall methodology appears to be promising and has substantial potential for upscaling ET i to ET d for field and regional-scale evapotranspiration mapping studies using polar orbiting satellites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing CLUBB PDF Closure Assumptions for a Continental Shallow-to-Deep Convective Transition Case Over Multiple Spatial Scales

Assumed-PDF (probability density function) higher-order turbulence closures (APHOCs) are now widely used for parameterizing boundary layer turbulence and shallow convection in Earth system models (ESMs). A better understanding of the resolution-dependent behavior of APHOCs is essential for improving the performance of next-generation ESMs with intended horizontal resolutions finer than 10 km. In this study, we evaluate the PDF family of Analytic double-Gaussian 1 implemented in Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB) over a range of spatial scales (Dx) from 2 to 100 km. A 120-km-wide large eddy simulation (LES) for a continental convection case during 2016 Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign serves as benchmark to evaluate the PDF closure using an off-line approach. We find during the shallow convection period, the CLUBB PDF closure tends to produce positive biases of cloud properties and liquid water flux near cloud base for all scales of analysis. It produces negative biases for these variables near cloud top that are more severe for Dx larger than 25 km. Results show that replacing the CLUBB-parameterized moisture and temperature skewnesses with LES-derived ones can fix most of the biases if clipping of input moments is allowed to prevent the occurrence of unrealizable solutions. Overall, the performance of the PDF closure is better for smaller Dx = 2–5 km than for larger Dx = 50–100 km; for a given grid spacing, it is better when the convective clouds become deeper in the late afternoon. Likely causes for the resolution dependence and implications for improving the PDF closure are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multilevel and multifidelity uncertainty quantification for cardiovascular hemodynamics

Standard approaches for uncertainty quantification in cardiovascular modeling pose challenges due to the large number of uncertain inputs and the significant computational cost of realistic three-dimensional simulations. Here, we propose an efficient uncertainty quantification framework utilizing a multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo (MLMF) estimator to improve the accuracy of hemodynamic quantities of interest while maintaining reasonable computational cost. This is achieved by leveraging three cardiovascular model fidelities, each with varying spatial resolution to rigorously quantify the variability in hemodynamic outputs. We employ two low-fidelity models (zero- and one-dimensional) to construct several different estimators. Our goal is to investigate and compare the efficiency of estimators built from combinations of these two low-fidelity model alternatives and our high-fidelity three-dimensional models. We demonstrate this framework on healthy and diseased models of aortic and coronary anatomy, including uncertainties in material property and boundary condition parameters. Our goal is to demonstrate that for this application it is possible to accelerate the convergence of the estimators by utilizing a MLMF paradigm. Therefore, we compare our approach to single fidelity Monte Carlo estimators and to a multilevel Monte Carlo approach based only on three-dimensional simulations, but leveraging multiple spatial resolutions. We demonstrate significant, on the order of 10 to 100 times, reduction in total computational cost with the MLMF estimators. We also examine the differing properties of the MLMF estimators in healthy versus diseased models, as well as global versus local quantities of interest. As expected, global quantities such as outlet pressure and flow show larger reductions than local quantities, such as those relating to wall shear stress, as the latter rely more heavily on the highest fidelity model evaluations. Similarly, healthy models show larger reductions than diseased models. In all cases, our workflow coupling Dakota’s MLMF estimators with the SimVascular cardiovascular modeling framework makes uncertainty quantification feasible for constrained computational budgets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using angular two-point correlations to self-calibrate the photometric redshift distributions of DECaLS DR9

Calibrating the redshift distributions of photometric galaxy samples is essential in weak lensing studies. The self-calibration method combines angular auto- and cross-correlations between galaxies in multiple photometric redshift (photo-z) bins to reconstruct the scattering rates matrix between redshift bins. In this paper, we test a recently proposed self-calibration algorithm using the DECaLS Data Release 9 and investigate to what extent the scattering rates are determined. We first mitigate the spurious angular correlations due to imaging systematics by a machine learning based method. We then improve the algorithm for χ 2 minimization and error estimation. Finally, we solve for the scattering matrices, carry out a series of consistency tests, and find reasonable agreements: (1) finer photo-z bins return a high-resolution scattering matrix, and it is broadly consistent with the low-resolution matrix from wider bins; (2) the scattering matrix from the Northern Galactic Cap is almost identical to that from Southern Galactic Cap; (3) the scattering matrices are in reasonable agreement with those constructed from the power spectrum and the weighted spectroscopic subsample. We also evaluate the impact of cosmic magnification. Although it changes little the diagonal elements of the scattering matrix, it affects the off-diagonals significantly. The scattering matrix also shows some dependence on scale cut of input correlations, which may be related to a known numerical degeneracy between certain scattering pairs. In conclusion, this work demonstrates the feasibility of the self-calibration method in real data and provides a practical alternative to calibrate the redshift distributions of photometric samples.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗