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NASA NTRS1992

The velocity-distance relation for galaxies on a bubble

The characteristic diameter of the most prominent void in the redshift survey of de Lapparent et al. (1986) is measured. Distances and peculiar velocities to individual galaxies are derived, and it is shown that the void is approximately a 'Hubble Bubble' in which the near and far edges are separating with the general expansion of the universe. At the 3 sigma level, infall toward the Coma cluster is detected for a portion of the bubble wall. Limits on the net outflow from the void and infall into Coma are used to estimate Omega.

Bothun, Gregory D.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Vacuum/Zero Net-Gravity Application for On-Orbit TPS Tile Repair

The Orbiter Columbia catastrophically failed during reentry February 1, 2003. All Space Shuttle flights were suspended, including logistics support for the International Space Station. NASA Langley Research Center s (LaRC) Structures and Materials Competency is performing characterizations of candidate materials for on-orbit repair of orbiter Thermal Protection System (TPS) tiles to support Return-to-Flight activities led by Johnson Space Center (JSC). At least ten materials properties or attributes (adhesion to damage site, thermal protection, char/ash strength, thermal expansion, blistering, flaming, mixing ease, application in vacuum and zero gravity, cure time, shelf or storage life, and short-term outgassing and foaming) of candidate materials are of interest for on-orbit repair. This paper reports application in vacuum and zero net-gravity (for viscous flow repair materials). A description of the test apparatus and preliminary results of several candidate materials are presented. The filling of damage cavities is different for some candidate repair materials in combined vacuum and zero net-gravity than in either vacuum or zero net-gravity alone.

Harvey, Gale A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A bioenergy-focused versus a reforestation-focused mitigation pathway yields disparate carbon storage and climate responses

Limiting global warming to 2 °C requires urgent action on land-based mitigation. This study evaluates the biogeochemical and biogeophysical implications of two alternative land-based mitigation scenarios that aim to achieve the same radiative forcing. One scenario is primarily driven by bioenergy expansion (SSP226Lu-BIOCROP), while the other involves re/afforestation (SSP126Lu-REFOREST). We find that overall, SSP126Lu-REFOREST is a more efficient strategy for removing CO2 from the atmosphere by 2100, resulting in a net carbon sink of 242 ~ 483 PgC with smaller uncertainties compared to SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, which exhibits a wider range of -78 ~ 621 PgC. However, SSP126Lu-REFOREST leads to a relatively warmer planetary climate than SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, and this relative warming can be intensified in certain re/afforested regions where local climates are not favorable for tree growth. Despite the cooling effect on a global scale, SSP226Lu-BIOCROP reshuffles regional warming hotspots, amplifying summer temperatures in vulnerable tropical regions such as Central Africa and Southeast Asia. Our findings highlight the need for strategic land use planning to identify suitable regions for re/afforestation and bioenergy expansion, thereby improving the likelihood of achieving the intended climate mitigation outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reactive transport modeling of the Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) system at Stockton University, New Jersey during seasonal operations

Hydrogeochemical processes associated with Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) operations can often impact the system performance owing to mineral precipitation either at the wellbore or in the aquifer owing to changes in temperature and fluid disequilibria. Although failure of ATES systems due to mineral precipitation ("fouling") is common, predictive reactive-transport models have rarely been applied to plan their design and operation. Here, the objective of this study is to develop a reactive-transport model by coupling thermal, hydrological, and chemical (THC) processes to evaluate effects of introduced atmospheric oxygen on water chemistry, mineral precipitation/dissolution, porosity, and permeability changes associated with an ATES system at Stockton University (New Jersey, USA). The THC model builds on a Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical (THM) model of the site that evaluated system failure owing to possible fracturing in the caprock or around the wellbore. The causes of the system failure are not known – potential causes include hydraulic fracturing owing to elevated pump pressures that took place, a flow pathway created by one of the boreholes, or a pre-existing natural hydrologic connection between the upper unconfined aquifer and the ATES aquifer, any of which could have led to oxygenated water entering the reservoir and causing the observed Fe-oxide fouling on well screens. The THC model is used to evaluate some of the hypotheses and observations regarding system failure owing to geochemical processes. The reactive-transport code TOUGHREACT V4 was used to model the THC processes during seasonal heating and cooling operations at the Stockton ATES site over 6 years of operation. In the THC simulations, the primary effects on geochemistry were observed when the injection water is saturated with atmospheric oxygen. Simulations show greater precipitation of goethite near the cold wells as compared to the warm wells. Although volume fractions of Fe-hydroxides were relatively small, the model was aimed at processes in the aquifer at the scale of meters and larger rather than at the scale of mm or cm (i.e., a well screen). Kaolinite is the dominant precipitating phase, also around the cold wells. Illite dissolves near the cold wells and precipitates near the warm wells. There is a net decrease in the porosity near the cold wells and increase near the warm wells, although a slight amount of thermal contraction near the cold wells and expansion near the warm wells is responsible for a significant proportion of the porosity change. Owing to the coarse discretization of the numerical grid near the wells (compared to the screen thickness) the magnitude of permeability changes at the wellbore are likely underestimated. The reactive transport model in this study can be used for characterization of aquifers, optimizing the operational parameters (temperature, pressure, pH etc.), and planning of mitigation strategies for ATES systems.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Innovative Pathways to Net Zero Emissions: Subnational Strategies for Distributed Solar Deployment to Improve Grid Quality and Reduce Energy Costs in Argentina

Through Net Zero World, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the National Energy Secretariat of Argentina, La Pampa's Energy and Mining Secretariat, Pampetrol, and the Administracion Provincial de Energia de La Pampa (APELP) conducted an integrated analysis of the power system of the La Pampa province in Argentina. The study assessed the impact that solar and battery energy storage systems could have on the region grid's reliability and electricity costs, providing insights into long-term decarbonization strategies across Argentina. The analysis demonstrated that these systems are expected not only to help with decarbonization efforts but also to bolster grid resiliency, reduce line losses, and improve voltage regulation while lowering electricity costs. The paper offers a replicable framework for similar studies across other Argentine provinces, which could inform a national grid reliability plan and promote regional coordination. Such coordination will play a key role in supporting a nationwide clean energy transition as Argentina increases its share of renewable energy. By coordinating subnational energy plans with national strategies, Argentina can secure a resilient clean energy future, leveraging the substantial renewable resources available across its provinces.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prelithiated SiO x /Graphite-NMC811 Cells: Capacity Loss, Impedance Rise and Hidden Degradation Pathways Revealed Using Three-Electrode Diagnostics

Electrodes containing SiO x /graphite (Gr) materials are attractive as anodes for high-energy lithium-ion batteries. However, their mechanical deformation, electrochemical response, and impedance evolution during long-term cycling are strongly coupled, complicating accurate diagnosis of performance fade mechanisms. In this work, the behavior of electrochemically prelithiated SiO x /Gr anodes paired with NMC811 cathodes is systematically investigated using techniques that include in-situ dilatometry, three-electrode electrochemistry, and multiscale post-cycling microscopy. The SiO x /Gr electrode exhibits a maximum expansion of 49% upon lithiation to 10 mV vs Li + /Li, with 84% of the expansion and 91% of the capacity being reversible. In full cells, relatively stable cycling with only 12% capacity fade over 500 cycles is observed. Three-electrode experiments reveal cell-level impedance growth, which is dominated by the NMC811 cathode: the SiO x /Gr anode exhibits minimal net impedance rise and an initial impedance decrease at low potentials. Despite this apparent electrochemical stability, cross-sectional SEM, PFIB tomography, and cryo-STEM reveal irreversible anode thickening caused by the accumulation of an inorganic-rich solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) permeating the anode bulk. Electrode potential-shift analysis further demonstrates that Li + ions released from lithium reservoirs in the prelithiated anode mask true lithium inventory loss during aging. These results demonstrate that low-expansion SiO x /Gr anodes can simultaneously exhibit favorable cycling and impedance metrics while undergoing substantial, hidden degradation, underscoring the importance of electrode-resolved diagnostics for evaluating prelithiated silicon-based anodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Wind Energy

Global wind resources greatly exceed current electricity demand and the levelized cost of energy from wind turbines has shown precipitous declines. Accordingly, the installed capacity of wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of about 14% during the last two decades and wind turbines now provide ~6–7% of the global electricity supply. This renewable electricity generation source is thus already playing a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. Here we document trends within the industry, examine projections of future installed capacity increases and compute the associated climate change mitigation potential at the global and regional levels. Key countries (the USA, UK and China) and regions (e.g., EU27) have developed ambitious plans to expand wind energy penetration as core aspects of their net-zero emissions strategies. The projected climate change mitigation from wind energy by 2100 ranges from 0.3–0.8 °C depending on the precise socio-economic pathway and wind energy expansion scenario followed. The rapid expansion of annual increments to wind energy installed capacity by approximately two times current rates can greatly delay the passing of the 2 °C warming threshold relative to pre-industrial levels. To achieve the required expansion of this cost-effective, low-carbon energy source, there is a need for electrification of the energy system and for expansion of manufacturing and installation capacity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1970

Experimental investigation and analysis of two sources of nozzle-thrust misalignment

Asymmetry of nozzle's throat produces oscillatory type net side-force axial profile. Using mean values of localized static pressure and Mach number, scaling laws for flat-plate supersonic flow over protrusion are applied to nozzle expansion cone irregularities to give approximate indication of perturbed-pressure profiles and induced side forces.

Dowdy, M. W.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy storage in combined gas-electric energy transitions models: The case of California

California’s vision for a net-zero future by 2045 relies heavily on variable renewable energy systems. Thus, energy storage - particularly long-duration storage - could play a fundamental role in reliably supplying low-carbon electricity. We study energy storage using the BRIDGES model, a combined gas-electric capacity expansion model for California across multiple investment periods (2025-2045), modeled with progressively decreasing carbon emission targets to a zero emissions by 2045. This least-cost optimization model includes renewable gas production via power-to-gas, long-term storage of energy in gaseous form, electric energy storage such as through batteries and hydrogen storage, and renewable energy generation, all with capacity tracking and investment. Multiple scenarios are evaluated to examine the sensitivity of the optimal storage portfolio to system-level and sector-level parameters. The scenario results show that all electric energy storage systems - which vary in storage duration - are deployed and required in a net-zero California in 2045, amounting to around 75 GW of storage capacity. Lithium ion systems make up approximately 80% of this power capacity and supply most short-run storage needs. Hydrogen storage - in the form of a power-to-gas-to-power system - emerges as a replacement to conventional natural gas storage, comprising most of the total energy storage capacity (~ 4 TWh). This capacity is less than 5% of the current natural gas storage capacity (94 TWh), indicating sufficient room for repurposing part of the gas infrastructure. A demand-side sensitivity analysis proves that higher electricity demand correlates with more builds of Li-ion batteries, while higher industrial heat demand leads to more builds of long-duration storage systems in a net-zero economy. Furthermore, power-to-gas systems satisfy part of the industrial heat demand by locally supplying renewable gas, which overtakes the traditional centralized gas storage and transfers through pipelines, casting significant doubts on the future of the large-scale gas infrastructure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (Final Report)

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies that can operate with a high degree of operating flexibility could provide necessary electric grid flexibility in a system with high shares of variable renewables. This project examines the deployment and dispatch potential of twelve unique flexible CCS (FLECCS) technologies that encompass post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture designs, concepts using a storage media to enable energy arbitrage, and hybrid processes that integrate CCS with direct air capture (DAC) for flexibility with net zero or negative CO 2 emissions. FLECCS technology potential is explored with a multi-model, multi-scale framework including the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model (CEM) and the PLEXOS production cost model (PCM). Innovative methods were developed to represent FLECCS technology operating modes, performance, and cost in the two models. ReEDS was then used to simulate nine scenarios for each FLECCS technology, three CO 2 emissions price futures reaching $\$$150, $\$$225, and $\$$300/tCO 2 in 2050; and three scenarios for FLECCS technology deployment favorability relative to competing technologies. For each CO 2 price and reference FLECCS favorability, the 2050 infrastructures from ReEDS model are downscaled and implemented in PLEXOS to examine hourly dispatch under detailed operational constraints that are not included in ReEDS. FLECCS technologies exhibited a wide range of deployment potential ranging from none to several hundred gigawatts of capacity, with outcomes highly sensitive to input cost and performance parameters that are inherently highly uncertain. When deployed, FLECCS tended to displace a combination of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies rather than supporting increased renewable deployment. As a result, CO 2 emissions reductions facilitated by FLECCS deployment tended to come with higher overall system costs and electricity prices. When economically competitive, FLECCS technologies can contribute significant flexible generation and firm capacity to the grid, but continued technology development and an expanded analytical scope are necessary to fully understand FLECCS deployment potential its impact on the electric power sector. Follow-on analysis incorporating captured CO 2 tax credit value from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and other potential policy scenarios could be particularly valuable, as this policy can substantially change the relative competitiveness of FLECCS technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

NASA NTRS1994

Casting of weldable graphite/magnesium metal matrix composites with built-in metallic inserts

Technology innovations directed at the advanced development of a potentially low cost and weldable graphite/magnesium metal matrix composites (MMC) through near net shape pressure casting are described. These MMC components uniquely have built-in metallic inserts to provide an innovative approach for joining or connecting other MMC components through conventional joining techniques such as welding, brazing, mechanical fasteners, etc. Moreover, the metallic inserts trapped within the MMC components can be made to transfer the imposed load efficiently to the continuous graphite fiber reinforcement thus producing stronger, stiffer, and more reliable MMC components. The use of low pressure near net shape casting is economical compared to other MMC fabrication processes. These castable and potentially weldable MMC components can provide great payoffs in terms of high strength, high stiffness, low thermal expansion, lightweight, and easily joinable MMC components for several future NASA space structural, industrial, and commercial applications.

Lee, Jonathan A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Gyro-phase effects near the storm-time boundary of energetic plasma

The nonadiabatic acceleration of plasma sheet ions during the expansion phase of substorms is examined by means of single-particle codes. It is shown that, in the near-earth plasma sheet, the gyration phase at substorm onset controls the net ion energization, as the gyro-period is locally comparable to the field variation time scale. This can yield a particularly significant decrease of the particle magnetic moment. It is accordingly argued that, via adiabatic invariant violation, the dipolarization of magnetospheric field lines can induce a 'de-trapping' of inner plasma sheet populations and, hence, give rise to short-lived precipitation enhancements over the auroral zone. As this effect depends upon cyclotron frequency, it is expected to occur at distinct latitudes for different ion species. This contrasts with nonadiabatic ion behavior further out into the geotail, which is characterized by intense perpendicular heating and a likely collective trapping.

Delcourt, D. C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 Study

This paper explores the role of electricity in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in the United States based on results from 17 models as part of the 37th Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). In the study's Net-Zero scenario, the models use diverse pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with gross energy-related residual emissions ranging from 17.2 to 66.6 % of 2020 levels. Electricity consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero, with models projecting rapid electrification of end-uses and rapidly declining CO2 intensity of electricity. However, the extent of electrification and the technology mix to decarbonize the power sector vary considerably across models. In the Net-Zero scenario, electricity is projected to evolve from ~20 % of final energy in 2020 to 17-63 % in 2050 across the models driven by electrification in all sectors-buildings, industry, and transportation-and, to a lesser extent by direct air capture. By 2050, total electricity consumption increases by 24-176 % (relative to 2020), accompanied by significant expansion in renewable electricity production. Together, solar and wind generation grows by 175-834 %, supplying 45-90 % of total electricity in 2050, with wind achieving slightly higher shares than solar. Electricity storage technologies are deployed at scale to support wind and solar generation. The electricity generation mix varies across models: some project almost complete reliance on renewables, while others see a substantial role for natural gas, often with carbon capture and storage. This paper synthesizes the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results, highlighting differing views on how key drivers of electricity demand and supply might evolve.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Disjunctive optimization model and algorithm for long-term capacity expansion planning of reliable power generation systems

This paper proposes a new optimization model and algorithm for long-term capacity expansion planning of reliable power generation systems. The model optimizes both investment decisions (e.g., size, location, and time to install, retire and decommission facilities) and operation decisions (e.g., on/off status, operating capacity, and expected power output). It is also able to optimize reserve systems (or backup systems), as well as the main systems, to improve power systems reliability. An impact of operational strategies of generators (i.e., participating in electricity production vs. remaining as idle units during operation) on power systems reliability is considered. Probability of equipment failures and capacity failure states are used to rigorously estimate the power systems reliability depending on design and operation strategies. The optimization model is formulated with Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP), which is reformulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model using the Hull relaxation. Two reliability-related penalties, such as downtime penalty and unmet demand penalty, are included in the objective function to maximize reliability while minimizing the total net present cost. Furthermore, a bilevel decomposition with tailored cuts is developed to reduce computational times of the multi-scale optimization model. The effectiveness of the proposed model is shown by comparing the results with the results obtained from the expansion planning models that do not explicitly consider reliability. In conclusion, we also show that the proposed bilevel decomposition is computationally efficient for solving large scale problems through 5-years and 10-years planning case studies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mapping the global distribution of C 4 vegetation using observations and optimality theory

Plants with the C 4 photosynthesis pathway typically respond to climate change differently from more common C 3 -type plants, due to their distinct anatomical and biochemical characteristics. These different responses are expected to drive changes in global C 4 and C 3 vegetation distributions. However, current C 4 vegetation distribution models may not predict this response as they do not capture multiple interacting factors and often lack observational constraints. Here, we used global observations of plant photosynthetic pathways, satellite remote sensing, and photosynthetic optimality theory to produce an observation-constrained global map of C 4 vegetation. We find that global C 4 vegetation coverage decreased from 17.7% to 17.1% of the land surface during 2001 to 2019. This was the net result of a reduction in C 4 natural grass cover due to elevated CO 2 favoring C 3 -type photosynthesis, and an increase in C 4 crop cover, mainly from corn (maize) expansion. Using an emergent constraint approach, we estimated that C 4 vegetation contributed 19.5% of global photosynthetic carbon assimilation, a value within the range of previous estimates (18–23%) but higher than the ensemble mean of dynamic global vegetation models (14 ± 13%; mean ± one standard deviation). Our study sheds insight on the critical and underappreciated role of C 4 plants in the contemporary global carbon cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thermophysical properties of high-density, sintered monoliths of yttrium dihydride in the range 373–773 K

Yttrium dihydride is a promising nuclear reactor moderator for high-temperature, thermal micro-reactors due to its ability to retain hydrogen to high temperatures while having a relatively low impact on neutron economy. However, it is difficult to fabricate yttrium dihydride in high-density, near net-shape monoliths for moderator applications due to challenges associated with the hydrogen absorption process. Here, high-density monoliths of yttrium dihydride were prepared by powder metallurgical methods. The lattice strain and thermal expansion coefficient were measured using neutron diffraction of powders of directly-hydrided yttrium, while the molar heat capacity and thermal diffusivity of sintered yttrium dihydride were measured using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and laser flash analysis (LFA), respectively. The molar heat capacity of yttrium dihydride was also calculated using density functional theory (DFT) for comparison. These parameters were used to then calculate the thermal conductivity and resistivity of yttrium dihydride as a function of temperature. The thermophysical properties of materials produced by both methods were observed to be consistent with the values from literature for yttrium dihydride. Due to the novelty of producing yttrium dihydride by powder metallurgical methods, this result indicated that the sintered monoliths were of high quality and that powder metallurgy is a viable method for large-scale production of yttrium dihydride monoliths for nuclear reactor moderator applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

A mesoscale 3D model of irradiated concrete informed via a 2.5 U-Net semantic segmentation

The concrete biological shield in light-water reactors is exposed to neutron and gamma irradiation, which deteriorates the concrete’s mechanical properties in the long term. To assess the irradiation-induced damage, predictive mechanical models are developed and used in parallel with the characterization of irradiated concrete samples. Realistic 3D simulation domains can drastically improve a model’s prediction. In this work, we utilized x-ray computed tomography (XCT) data of a concrete specimen to reconstruct its 3D microstructure. The XCT data shows low contrast between the concrete’s aggregates and cement paste, resulting in poor image segmentation when using traditional unsupervised techniques. To address this issue, we developed and trained a 2.5D U-Net model on only 24 pre-labeled XCT layers to segment 651 layers of the XCT data. The overall F1-score of the model is approximately 96%. Then, we created a 3D finite element (FE) mesh based on the stack of segmented images. The FE model contains radiation-induced expansion, damage, and creep. The constitutive equations are adapted to each phase (aggregates and cement paste). Here, we simulated the effects of neutron irradiation in the concrete specimen as well as the specimen’s mechanical response to uniaxial compression. Finally, model validation was performed using experimental data on similar concrete specimens in the literature.

2.5D U-Net↗

DOE OSTI2022

Critical lensing and kurtosis near a critical point in the QCD phase diagram in and out of equilibrium

In this work, we study the lensing effect of the QCD critical point on hydrodynamic trajectories and its consequences on the net-proton kurtosis $\kappa$ 4 . Including critical behavior by means of the BEST Collaboration equation of state (EoS), we first consider a scenario in equilibrium, then compare with hydrodynamic 0+1⁢D simulations with Bjorken expansion, including both shear and bulk viscous terms. Here, we find that, both in and out of equilibrium, the size and shape of the critical region directly affect if the signal will survive through the dynamical evolution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗