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NASA NTRS2022

Unique Observational Constraints on the Seasonal and Longitudinal Variability of the Earth’s Planetary Albedo and Cloud Distribution Inferred From EPIC Measurements

Thorough comparison to observations is key to developing a credible climate model forecasting capability. Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) measurements of Earth’s reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation provide a unique observational perspective that permits a more reliable model/data comparison than is possible with the otherwise available satellite data. The uniqueness is in the DSCOVR satellite’s viewing geometry, which enables continuous viewing of the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere from its Lissajous orbit around the Lagrangian L1 point. The key instrument is the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC), which views the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere with 1024-by-1024-pixel imagery in 10 narrow spectral bands from 317 to 780 nm, acquiring up to 22 high spatial resolution images per day. The additional feature is that the frequency of EPIC image acquisition is nearly identical to that of the climate GCM data generation scheme where climate data for the entire globe are ‘instantaneously’ calculated at 1-h radiation time-step intervals. Implementation of the SHS (Sunlit Hemisphere Sampling) EPIC-view geometry for the in-line GCM output data sampling establishes a precise self-consistency in the space-time data sampling between EPIC observational and GCM output data generation and sampling. The remaining problem is that the GCM generated data are radiative fluxes, while the EPIC measurements are backscatter-dependent radiances. Radiance to flux conversion is a complex problem with no simple way to convert GCM radiative fluxes into spectral radiances. The more expedient approach is to convert the EPIC spectral radiances into broadband radiances by MODIS/CERES-based regression relationships and then into solar radiative fluxes using the CERES angular distribution models. Averaging over the sunlit hemisphere suppresses the meteorological weather noise, but preserves the intra-seasonal larger scale variability. Longitudinal slicing by the Earth’s rotation permits a self-consistent model/data comparison of the longitudinal model/data differences in the variability of the reflected solar radiation. Ancillary EPIC Composite data provide additional cloud property information for climate model diagnostics. Comparison of EPIC-derived seasonal and longitudinal variability of the Earth’s planetary albedo with the GISS ModelE2 results shows systematic overestimate of cloud reflectivity over the Pacific Ocean with corresponding underestimates over continental land areas.

DSCOVR↗

NASA NTRS1981

Short period tidal variations of earth rotation

It is explained that the tidal deformation of the earth's polar moment of inertia by the moon and sun cause periodic variations in rotation. The short period oscillations give rise to a meter-sized, diurnal signature in the lunar laser ranging data obtained at McDonald Observatory. A solution is given for the scale parameter k/C at fortnightly and monthly tidal frequencies. The results are compared with those obtained by other investigators and with a theoretical estimate which includes the effect of oceans and a decoupled fluid core.

Yoder, C. F.↗

NASA NTRS2008

QuikSCAT follow - on concept study

Global, real-time observations of the speed and direction of winds over the oceans ocean surface vector winds [OSVW]) are high priority measurements for National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) weather forecasting, prediction, and hazard warning communities. At present, these data are provided by the experimental National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) QuikSCAT satellite sensor, which is operating well beyond its design lifetime. To continue to meet the Nation’s need for operational OSVW observations beyond QuikSCAT, NOAA tasked the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to design and provide costs for a set of QuikSCAT Follow-On mission options. Three scenarios were examined: 1) a QuikSCAT Replacement mission with capabilities commensurate to QuikSCAT, 2) a next-generation Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission (XOVWM), as recommended in the National Research Council’s decadal survey to provide significantly improved all-weather, allwind, high spatial resolution measurements, and 3) an XOVWM Constellation consisting of two XOVWM observatories to provide improved temporal resolution. In parallel, NOAA asked its users to provide a quantitative assessment of each option’s benefit to NOAA. This report presents the JPL design, risk assessment, and cost for each of three options, together with a summary of the NOAA users’ benefit assessment. The report concludes that though all options are technically feasible for immediate implementation and have a risk posture consistent with a NOAA operational mission, the XOVWM options provide significant observational benefits. While a QuikSCAT Replacement option would continue current operational measurement capabilities, there is a strong and clearly defined operational need for improved capabilities in high winds (e.g., hurricanes or extra-tropical cyclones), heavy precipitation, and near coasts to enable significantly improved severe storm and coastal hazard forecasts, which are provided only by the XOVWM options.

Rodriquez, Ernesto↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The PolCube CubeSat Polarimeter for Earth Science

PolCube is a 12U CubeSat + polarimeter instrument designed by NASA Langley and the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) for Earth Science. PolCube is based on the PolCam polarimeter onboard the Korean Pathfinder Lunar Observatory (KPLO) that launched in August 2022. The objective of the PolCube instrument is to retrieve detailed fine-mode (pollution and smoke) and coarse-mode (sea-salt and dust) aerosol properties over the ocean for a range of light to heavy aerosol loadings using its polarimetric-imaging capability at multiple angles and wavelengths from 410 − 865 nm. An additional objective is to discriminate aerosols from thin clouds. We quantify the performance of aerosol and ocean remote sensing products from the PolCube polarimeter instrument using the Microphysical Aerosol Properties from Polarimetry (MAPP) remote sensing retrieval algorithm. PolCube’s accurate and high-resolution aerosol-retrieval products will provide unique spatial and temporal coverage of the Earth that can be used synergistically with other instruments, such as the PACE (Plankton, Aerosols, Clouds and Ecosystems) and GEMS (Geostationary Environmental Monitoring Spectrometer) mission to improve air-quality forecasting. We present the PolCube-MAPP retrieval algorithm, which used optimal estimation and artificial intelligence, as well as multiple powerful inherent optical property look-up-tables for the Earth’s aerosol, cloud, and hydrosol particles. We estimate that PolCube can retrieve total aerosol optical depth at 555 nm (AOD555) within ±0.068, fine-mode AOD555 within ±0.078, and fine-mode single-scattering albedo within ±0.036, where all uncertainties are expressed as one standard deviation (1σ).

Snorre Stamnes↗

NASA NTRS2021

Estimation of Thermodynamic and Dynamic Contributions to Sea Ice Growth in the Central Arctic Using ICESat-2 and MOSAiC SIMBA Buoy Data

The fine spatial resolution of the ICESat-2 (IS2) satellite altimeter allows monitoring the evolution of sea ice thickness with detailed dynamic information (e.g. ridges and leads). In this study, we first assess the ability of IS2 to estimate thermodynamic ice growth and dynamic thickening during the ice-growing season in the central Arctic Ocean. As an indicator of the thermodynamic ice growth, we use 10 thermistor string-based sea ice mass balance array (SIMBA) buoys deployed at a scale of ~ 50 km from the Icebreaker Polarstern during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. We collect IS2 data within 20 km buffer distance from the individual buoys, and calculate the mode, median, and mean of the IS2-derived ice thickness. The IS2 modal thickness shows the least bias (−0.169 m) with the buoy ice thickness, representing level ice thickness. In addition, the increasing rate of the IS2 modal thickness is close to the thermodynamic ice growth with a small bias of −0.054 cm/day. However, the increasing rates of the IS2 median and mean thickness are greater than the thermodynamic ice growth by about 0.114 cm/day and 0.198 cm/day, respectively, because they also include ice growth caused by thickness redistribution during dynamic deformation. The dynamic contributions may account for 26.1 ± 10.3% and 34.4 ± 10.1% of the total increase of the IS2 median and mean thickness, respectively. Within a ~ 50 km radius area from the MOSAiC Central Observatory, IS2 measurements exhibit that the ridge fraction increased from <2% in November to ~ 4% in March (~0.029%/day of average increasing rate) and ridge height increased about 0.047 cm/day during the same period. However, lead formation does not show significant contributions to the dynamic ice thickening because leads are temporary features lasting only 2–3 days. Although there are considerable uncertainties in IS2 ice thickness estimation and IS2-buoy thickness comparison, this study emphasizes the importance of combining measurements by IS2 and SIMBA buoys to explain the regional sea ice mass balance with separating the thermodynamic and dynamic contributions.

satellite altimeter↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Most Extreme Thunderstorms on Earth

This study presents a comprehensive examination of the spectrum of storm types and their attributes worldwide (between 35N and 35S latitude), and as a function of season, location, and convective regime using the observed lightning, microwave scattering, and reflectivity signatures from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) low-Earth orbiting observatory. A global, multi-year data set (1998-2000) indicates that the deepest thunderstorms (having reflectivity in excess of 50 dBZ at 9 km altitude) occur in all the sub-tropical continents and occasionally over the open ocean, but are most common over the Americas. The most intense storms have the greatest lightning rates, lowest brightness temperatures and greatest depth of reflectivity- all indicative of strong updrafts and a well-developed volume of precipitation-sized ice particles. Mesoscale convective systems occurring within or in association with forcing from the sub-tropical continents are the most prolific lightning producers. The greatest flash rate to date of 993 flashes per minute was observed by NASA's Lightning Imaging Sensor on May 6, 1999 during an overpass of a pre-frontal squall line extending from Tennessee to Louisiana. The global distribution and frequency of thunderstorms, and the most recent summary of the extreme storms observed from space, in particular, will be discussed in greater detail.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Characterizing the Architectures, Diversity and Habitability of Nearby Planetary Systems: The HabEx Observatory

Ongoing research, upcoming developments in ground-based facilities, and the launch of new space missions (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite [TESS], James Webb Space Telescope [JWST], and Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope [WFIRST]) will continue to advance knowledge of the variety and nature of exoplanetary system components over the next decade and a half. However, many key questions will remain: What is the architecture and full diversity of mature planetary systems? What is the linkage between individual planet properties, planetary system architectures and circumstellar dust structures? How diverse are planetary atmospheres over the full range of planet sizes and stellar insulation levels? Are there Earth-sized planets orbiting in the habitable zone (HZ) of nearby sunlike stars, with water vapor in their atmospheres, evidence for surface oceans and signs of life? Are these signs of life really of biotic origin? Answering all of these questions requires direct imaging and spectroscopy from space in reflected light and/or thermal emission. We exclusively discuss reflected light (near ultraviolet [UV] to near infrared [IR]) investigations, identifying some of the observational, technological, and theoretical challenges that must be met to accomplish such a feat. This paper concentrates on one possible implementation strategy currently under study: the HabEx (Habitable Exoplanet) Observatory mission concept.

Mennesson, B.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Aquarius: The Instrument and Initial Results

Aquarius was launched on June 10, 2011 aboard the Aquarius/SAC-D observatory and the instrument has been operating continuously since the initial turned-on was completed on August 25. The initial observed antenna temperatures were close to predicted and the first salinity map was released in September. In order to map the ocean salinity field, Aquarius includes several special features such as the inclusion of a scatterometer to provide a roughness correction, measurement of the third Stokes parameter to correct for Faraday rotation, and fast sampling to mitigate the effects of RFI. This paper provides an overview of the instrument and an example of initial results. Details are covered in subsequent papers in the session on Aquarius

Ocean salinity↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Habitable Exoplanet Observatory (HabEx): Science Goals and Projected Capabilities

Ongoing research, upcoming developments in ground-based facilities, and the launch of new space missions (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite [TESS], James Webb Space Telescope [JWST], and Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope [WFIRST]) will continue to advance knowledge of the variety and nature of exoplanetary system components over the next decade and a half. However, many key questions will remain: What is the architecture and full diversity of mature planetary systems? What is the linkage between individual planet properties, planetary system architectures, and circumstellar dust structures? How diverse are planetary atmospheres over the full range of planet sizes and stellar insulation levels? Are there Earth-sized planets orbiting in the habitable zone (HZ) of nearby sun-like stars, with water vapor in their atmospheres, evidence for surface oceans and signs of life? Are these really of biotic origin? Answering all of these questions requires direct imaging and spectroscopy from space in reflected light and/or thermal emission. We exclusively discuss reflected light (near ultraviolet [UV] to near infrared [IR]) investigations, identifying some of the observational, technological, and theoretical challenges that must be met to accomplish such a feat. This paper concentrates on one possible implementation strategy and mission concept currently under study: the HabEx (Habitable Exoplanet) Observatory.

Mennesson, Bertrand↗

NASA NTRS1991

NASA/Ames Research Center's science and applications aircraft program

NASA-Ames Research Center operates a fleet of seven Science and Applications Aircraft, namely the C-141/Kuiper Airborne Observatory (KAO), DC-8, C-130, Lear Jet, and three ER-2s. These aircraft are used to satisfy two major objectives, each of equal importance. The first is to acquire remote and in-situ scientific data in astronomy, astrophysics, earth sciences, ocean processes, atmospheric physics, meteorology, materials processing and life sciences. The second major objective is to expedite the development of sensors and their attendant algorithms for ultimate use in space and to simulate from an aircraft, the data to be acquired from spaceborne sensors. NASA-Ames Science and Applications Aircraft are recognized as national and international facilities. They have performed and will continue to perform, operational missions from bases in the United States and worldwide. Historically, twice as many investigators have requested flight time than could be accommodated. This situation remains true today and is expected to increase in the years ahead. A major advantage of the existing fleet of aircraft is their ability to cover a large expanse of the earth's ecosystem from the surface to the lower stratosphere over large distances and time aloft. Their large payload capability allows a number of scientists to use multi-investigator sensor suites to permit simultaneous and complementary data gathering. In-flight changes to the sensors or data systems have greatly reduced the time required to optimize the development of new instruments. It is doubtful that spaceborne systems will ever totally replace the need for airborne science aircraft. The operations philosophy and capabilities exist at NASA-Ames Research Center.

Hall, G. Warren↗

NASA NTRS2017

Terrestrial Glint Seen from Deep Space: Oriented Ice Crystals Detected from the Lagrangian Point

The deep space climate observatory (DSCOVR) spacecraft resides at the first Lagrangian point about one million miles from Earth. A polychromatic imaging camera onboard delivers nearly hourly observations of the entire sun-lit face of the Earth. Many images contain unexpected bright flashes of light over both ocean and land. We construct a yearlong time series of flash latitudes, scattering angles and oxygen absorption to demonstrate conclusively that the flashes over land are specular reflections off tiny ice platelets floating in the air nearly horizontally. Such deep space detection of tropospheric ice can be used to constrain the likelihood of oriented crystals and their contribution to Earth albedo. These glint observations also support proposals for detecting starlight glints off faint companions in our search for habitable exoplanets.

deep space observations↗

NASA NTRS2019

Spectral Polarization Distribution Models (PDMs) for NASA CLARREO Pathfinder’s Inter-Calibration Applications

Solar radiation scattered by Earth surfaces of various scene types such as oceans, deserts, tree leaves etc and atmospheric molecules and particles is polarized and the amount of polarization depends on the surface composition and particle physical properties. This can be a source of measurement errors in satellite data if a non-polarimetric radiometric sensor is sensitive to the polarization state of light. To obtain highly accurate spectral solar radiation data from the Earth-atmosphere system for the space-borne inter-calibration studies as proposed in NASA's Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission and the CLARREO Pathfinder (CPF) mission, the spectral polarization state of the reflected solar light at the top of atmosphere (TOA) must be known with sufficient accuracy. The degree of polarization (DOP) and the angle of linear polarization (AOLP) of the light at the TOA as functions of incident and viewing geometry and scene type construct the Polarization Distribution Models (PDMs) for correction of polarization-induced error of satellite data. In this work, algorithms for modeling the spectral polarization state of reflected sunlight from various types of Earth, including oceans, deserts, vegetated land surfaces and these scene types with all kinds of clouds, are developed. By comparing the model results with the PARASOL satellite data, our numerical results demonstrate that the model can provide a reliable approach for making the spectral PDMs for wavelengths between 320 and 2300 nm for satellite inter-calibration applications as proposed in the CLARREO and the CLARREO CPF missions.

Sun, Wenbo↗

NASA NTRS2011

Uncertainty Assessment of the SeaWiFS On-Orbit Calibration

Ocean color climate data records require water-leaving radiances with 5% absolute and 1% relative accuracies as input. Because of the amplification of any sensor calibration errors by the atmospheric correction, the 1% relative accuracy requirement translates into a 0.1% long-term radiometric stability requirement for top-of-the atmosphere radiances. The rigorous on-orbit calibration program developed and implemented for SeaWiFS by the NASA Ocean Biology Processing Group (OBPG) Calibration and Validation Team (CVT) has allowed the CVT to maintain the stability of the radiometric calibration of SeaWiFS at 0.13% or better over the mission. The uncertainties in the resulting calibrated top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) radiances can be addressed in terms of accuracy (biases in the measurements), precision (scatter in the measurements), and stability (repeatability of the measurements). The calibration biases of lunar observations relative to the USGS RObotic Lunar Observatory (ROLO) photometric model of the Moon are 2-3%. The biases from the vicarious calibration against the Marine Optical Buoy (MOBY) are 1-2%. The precision of the calibration derived from the solar calibration signal-tonoise ratios are 0.16%, from the lunar residuals are 0.13%, and from the vicarious gains are 0.10%. The long-term stability of the TOA radiances, derived from the lunar time series, is 0.13%. The stability of the vicariouslycalibrated TOA radiances, incorporating the uncertainties in the MOBY measurements and the atmospheric correction, is 0.30%. These results allow the OBPG to produce climate data records from the SeaWiFS ocean color data.

Eplee, Robert E., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Future Radiation Damage in Space due to South Atlantic Anomaly

Predictions of radiation damage for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites now use semi-empirical models developed from prior satellite data. From these models it is clear that the low field strength of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) controls where the maximum radiation damage occurs. One may make an estimate of future radiation damage to LEO spacecraft if one can predict the future of the SAA. Although reliable maps of the geomagnetic field strength and its secular change have only been made in the last few decades, certain geomagnetic observatories in South America and Africa have recorded the geomagnetic field for a much longer time. These observatories show that the present geomagnetic field change has persisted for more than 100 years. In spite of the fact that a few observatories have shown sudden changes in secular variation, those around the SAA have shown a stable secular variation. Assuming that this will continue for the next 50 to 100 years one can show that the SAA will expand to cover most of the South Atlantic Ocean and will become much weaker. This will greatly intensify the radiation hazard in LEO, put significant new limitations on radiation-hardened hardware, severely restrict the length of time that humans can remain in orbit, and materially change the configuration of the radiation belts.

Heirtzler, J. R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization of OCO-2 and ACOS-GOSAT biases and errors for flux estimates

We characterize the magnitude of seasonally and spatially varying biases in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) Version 8 (v8) and the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space (ACOS) Greenhouse Gas Observing SATellite (GOSAT) version 7.3 (v7.3) satellite CO2 retrievals by comparisons to measurements collected by the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) experiment, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) aircraft, and surface stations. Although the ACOS-GOSAT estimates of the column averaged carbon dioxide (CO2) dry air mole fraction (XCO2) have larger random errors than the OCO-2 XCO2 estimates, and the space-based estimates over land have larger random errors than those over ocean, the systematic errors are similar across both satellites and surface types, 0.6 ± 0.1 ppm. We find similar estimates of systematic error whether dynamic versus geometric coincidences or ESRL/DOE aircraft versus TCCON are used for validation (over land), once validation and co-location errors are accounted for. We also find that areas with sparse throughput of good quality data (due to quality flags and preprocessor selection) over land have ~double the error of regions of high-throughput of good quality data. We characterize both raw and bias-corrected results, finding that bias correction improves systematic errors by a factor of 2 for land observations and improves errors by ~0.2 ppm for ocean. We validate the lowermost tropospheric (LMT) product for OCO-2 and ACOS-GOSAT by comparison to aircraft and surface sites, finding systematic errors of ~1.1 ppm, while having 2-3 times the variability of XCO2. We characterize the time and distance scales of correlations for OCO-2 XCO2 errors, and find error correlations on scales of 0.3 degrees, 5-10 degrees, and 60 days. We find comparable scale lengths for the bias correction term. Assimilation of the OCO-2 bias correction term is used to estimate flux errors resulting from OCO-2 seasonal biases, finding annual flux errors on the order of 0.3 and 0.4 PgC/yr for Transcom-3 ocean and land regions, respectively.

Susan S Kulawik↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ICESat-2 Mission: Status, Outlook, and Contributions to Polar Science

The Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) mission carries the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) lidar to measure the changing height of Earth surface. After more than 3 years of science data collection, ATLAS has emitted well over a trillion laser pulses and continues to operate nominally. The ICESat-2 data products were initially released in May 2019, and have been used in over 150 peer-reviewed publications to date. Recent community white papers have noted the importance of ice elevation measurements for the coming decades, and as CryoSat-2 has entered it’s second decade and future missions are uncertain, ICESat-2 will be a critical part of the Earth System Observatory for the 2020s. In the polar regions, ICESat-2 has enabled year-round sea ice freeboard measurements as well as ice sheet elevation changes on seasonal, annual, and decadal time scales when combined with other missions. These data enable measurement of change at fine spatial and temporal scales to help understand or characterize the processes driving these observations. As of this presentation, Release 005 is the current version of the along-track data products, including surface-specific products for sea ice, land ice, ground and canopy height, ocean, and inland water heights. In addition, first versions of gridded data products for land ice, sea ice, and ocean are all available. Data spans the start of the mission (14 October 2018) through early 2022. The ICESat-2 project has also begun to produce and distribute QuickLook products with a nominal 3-day latency (as opposed to the ~45-day latency of the final data products). Initial versions of these QuickLook products have elevation accuracy of ~3 meters, and geolocation accuracy of ~50 meters. All products are available through the National Snow and Ice Data Center (nsidc.org). This presentation will summarize the current state and health of the observatory, current state of the ICESat-2 data products, data product quality assessment, and outlook for the future.

ICESat-2↗

NASA NTRS2022

Ongoing Progress Toward NASA's Surface Biology and Geology Mission

Pursuant to recommendations by the National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine's Earth Science Decadal Survey, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has announced the development of an Earth System Observatory (ESO), a series of missions designed to observe processes across the Earth's interior, surface and atmosphere. A key component of this system is the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) investigation. SBG will measure the composition and properties of Earth's land, inland waters, and coastal oceans. The notional architecture consists of multiple spacecraft slated for launch in the 2027–2028 timeframe (Figure 1). Target science questions and geophysical variables span diverse disciplines including terrestrial and aquatic ecology, geology, vulcanology, hydrology and cryospheric sciences (Figure 2). Beyond simply measuring geophysical variables for each discipline, SBG will provide information about the links between the different domains, enabling a more comprehensive understanding of the Earth as a connected system. SBG measurements will also benefit a wide range of societal applications including agriculture, terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity, natural hazards, public health, and management of water and other natural resources. SBG will also coordinate measurements, data products, and analyses with other ESO elements to deliver an integrated Earth System perspective of Earth and its changing climate.

David R. Thompson↗

NASA NTRS2017

Modeling Solar Energetic Particle Events Using ENLIL Heliosphere Simulations

Solar energetic particle (SEP) event modeling (SEPMOD) has gained renewed attention in part because of the availability of a decade of multipoint measurements from STEREO (Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory) and L1 (Lagrangian point 1) spacecraft at 1 AU (Astronomical Unit). These observations are coupled with improving simulations of the geometry and strength of heliospheric shocks obtained by using coronagraph images to send erupted material into realistic solar wind backgrounds. The STEREO and ACE (Aerosol, Cloud systems, ocean Ecosystems) measurements in particular have highlighted the sometimes surprisingly widespread nature of SEP events. It is thus an opportune time for testing SEP models, which typically focus on protons approximately 1-100 megaelectronvolts, toward both physical insight to these observations and potentially useful space radiation environment forecasting tools. Some approaches emphasize the concept of particle acceleration and propagation from close to the Sun, while others emphasize the local field line connection to a traveling, evolving shock source. Among the latter is the previously introduced SEPMOD treatment, based on the widely accessible and well-exercised WSA-ENLIL (Wang-Sheeley-Arge-ENLIL)-cone model. SEPMOD produces SEP proton time profiles at any location within the ENLIL domain. Here we demonstrate a SEPMOD version that accommodates multiple, concurrent shock sources occurring over periods of several weeks. The results illustrate the importance of considering longer-duration time periods and multiple CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) contributions in analyzing, modeling, and forecasting SEP events.

Luhmann, J. G.↗